12% of early iPhone 3G buyers report ditching their BlackBerry

[AppleInsider]

Approximately 12% of consumers who visited a retail store this past weekend to make their iPhone 3G S purchase said they were replacing a BlackBerry handset, the latest sign that Apple continues to make headway against rival Research in Motion in the high-stakes smartphone market.

That data point is one of several interesting statistics to come out of a survey by Piper Jaffray of 256 early iPhone 3G S adopters shopping for their new handsets at Apple retail stores in New York and Minnesota this past weekend. A similar survey conducted during last year's iPhone 3G launch found that just 6% of buyers were replacing a BlackBerry, suggesting Apple may be on pace to double its market share gains from RIM this time around.

Although Nokia leads the worldwide smartphone market with a commanding 41.2% share, Apple and its iPhone are most frequently compared to RIM and its BlackBerry devices due to their similarities and target audience. The most recent market share figures from Gartner rank Apple third with a 10.8% share, behind second-place RIM with its 19.9% slice of the market.

Of those iPhone 3G S buyers surveyed this weekend, 43% purchased the higher-capacity 32GB model and 57% were content with the 16GB model. This compares to 66% of buyers who selected the higher capacity 16GB iPhone 3G last year and 95% who purchased the higher capacity 6GB original iPhone when it was launched in 2007.

Speaking to clients in a report on the matter, analyst Gene Munster said he sees this trend as a sign that Apple may no longer be able to drive the average selling prices (ASPs) of iPhones higher simply by introducing models with greater storage capacity, as the lower capacity model appears to be sufficient for most early adopters for the first time in the handset's history this year.

Meanwhile, the survey signals that AT&T continues to reap the benefits of its exclusive deal to sell the iPhone in the U.S., with 28% of early iPhone 3G S adopters reporting that they are new to AT&T. This figure compares to 38% of iPhone 3G buyers last year who said they were making the jump to AT&T for the first time.

Piper Jaffray's survey also addressed the issue of iPod cannibalization by the iPhone, given that each iPhone is also a fully featured iPod. But interestingly enough, more than half (54%) of iPhone 3G S buyers said they planned to continue using a separate iPod in addition to their iPhone, up from 51% during the year-ago survey.



Overall, 56% of those surveyed said they were upgrading from an early iPhone model, with a resounding 88% saying their decision to make the jump to the new iPhone was driven by the handset's new feature set.

"We believe this shows Apple is developing brand loyalty not enjoyed by other mobile phone makers," Munster told clients. "At the outset of the company's iPhone initiative, one of Apple's goals was to develop the kind of brand loyalty they have developed among Mac and iPod customers and we believe they are succeeding thus far."

As the footprint expands, and loyalty expands as well, Apple will increasingly enjoy a base of customers who regularly upgrade to the newest version of the mobile phones the company releases in what appears to be an annual cycle," he added.

Munster maintained his Buy rating and $180 price target on Apple, saying he's incrementally more confident in his estimate that the company will sell 5 million iPhones during the current quarter ending June.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[markb]

Hate to mention this... but the margin of error on a sample size of 256 people is slightly larger than 6% so...The percentage of switchers could easily be anywhere betwee 6% (like last year) and 18%.

[slapppy]

Just keep adding those things that entrenched BB IT guys have on their checklist. List the money you save ditching BB server and seat cost.... Keep plugging away Apple and you'll get those enterprise customers.

[DanaCameron]

The 3GS was much more popular than I thought it was going to be. Way to go Apple!

[SpamSandwich]

At the risk of harming whatever benefits remain for Apple's under the lucrative deal with at&t, they need to start selling iPhones with other carriers. This is the only thing they can do to ensure rapid, sustainable growth for the future.

[AjitMD]

For the consumer, I think the iPhone is much more preferable than RIMM or even the Pre... just because the apps available. Exceptions would be for keyboard addicts who like to e-mail, twit, etc... another impediment is higher cost data plans, ATT as the sole carrier. However, for professional use where the user has to be tied to corporate secure push mail, VPN, vertical apps, the RIMM products make sense... and it a worldwide market that is still growing.

Pre is niche product within the CDMA market... Sprint, Verizon, etc, where Apple does not have offerings. They can expand to S. Korea, India, China, Canada an even Brazil. CDMA has 20% of the global cellphone market.

Disclose: My main bet is with Apple with a small side bet with RIMM. Occasional take a gamble of Palm.

[aplnub]

We activated a 3G iPhone this morning and dropped a BB and saved $6 per month. The 3G came from a 3GS upgrade.

[aplnub]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

At the risk of harming whatever benefits remain for Apple's under the lucrative deal with at&t, they need to start selling iPhones with other carriers. This is the only thing they can do to ensure rapid, sustainable growth for the future.

I agree but Apple is very good about squeezing out every little $$ they can from a certain user group (defined by them) and then moving down the ladder to where eventually everyone can afford $$ or just able to get the product.

iPod's are a good example of this.

The iPhone is another good example of how they created demand, let a select group of people have it. Then everyone feels great when they can finally afford to buy a 3G for $99.

I suspect Apple is within a year of moving to other carriers and maybe 2 - 3 years from having an all out affordable line (much like the nano to the iPod line). I say this because I am unsure if they $99 3G is just to clear out inventory or if it is here to stay.

[davidT]

Originally Posted by AjitMD

Exceptions would be for keyboard addicts who like to e-mail, twit, etc...

quick question: do many people have difficulty using the iphones on-screen keyboard?

I can type just as fast on the iphone as I ever could on the blackberry, and find the auto-correction on iphone pretty good. but I keep hearing that for email, twitter etc a 'real' keyboard is far better than the iphone's solution....

with a little practice, and especially now with the landscape mode, typing can't be slower on iphone surely?
-D

[melgross]

Originally Posted by markb

Hate to mention this... but the margin of error on a sample size of 256 people is slightly larger than 6% so...The percentage of switchers could easily be anywhere betwee 6% (like last year) and 18%.

No. You're misunderstanding the numbers.

The 6% is 6% of whatever number they end up with as a percentage.

So it would be 12% +-6%, or 11.28% to 12.72%.

In other words, a +-6% accuracy of the result.

[dualie]

I wonder how many Blackberry users used to be iPhone users. It might be helpful to know this before saying that the Apple is making headway vs. RIM.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by davidT

quick question: do many people have difficulty using the iphones on-screen keyboard?

I can type just as fast on the iphone as I ever could on the blackberry, and find the auto-correction on iphone pretty good. but I keep hearing that for email, twitter etc a 'real' keyboard is far better than the iphone's solution....

with a little practice, and especially now with the landscape mode, typing can't be slower on iphone surely?
-D

While I find typing on the vertical keyboard to be fine. typing on the landscape one is much faster. In my case about twice as fast.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by markb

Hate to mention this... but the margin of error on a sample size of 256 people is slightly larger than 6% so...The percentage of switchers could easily be anywhere betwee 6% (like last year) and 18%.

Hmm... how did you get 6%?

Shouldn't it be [SQRT(0.12*0.88/256)*(1.96)] = 4%, for a 95% confidence interval?

[Juanito]

I too dabbled in the Blackberry waters with the Bold on a Mexican provider (live on the border and need two lines). It was nice but after I got my 3GS I unlocked my old iPhone and ditched the Bold. Much easier this way.

[GQB]

Originally Posted by davidT

quick question: do many people have difficulty using the iphones on-screen keyboard?

I can type just as fast on the iphone as I ever could on the blackberry, and find the auto-correction on iphone pretty good. but I keep hearing that for email, twitter etc a 'real' keyboard is far better than the iphone's solution....

with a little practice, and especially now with the landscape mode, typing can't be slower on iphone surely?
-D

I've found the landscape keyboard to be really helpful in OS3.
I tend to agree with those who say that a physical keyboard is mostly important to those who already use them (i.e. Blackberry users.) For those new to high end smartphones (i.e. 95% of the phone market) software keyboard will seem as good or better (because of its versatility.)
And since it provides a larger screen without the hack of a fail-likely slide-out (sorry Pre), I think Apple is positioned nicely.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by melgross

No. You're misunderstanding the numbers.

The 6% is 6% of whatever number they end up with as a percentage.

So it would be 12% +-6%, or 11.28% to 12.72%.

In other words, a +-6% accuracy of the result.

Actually, no. If the margin of error is, say +-x% and the proportion of respondents is y%, that would mean between (y+x)% and (y-x%). So, for example, if 55% said they would vote for a candidate in a poll with a margin of error of +-3%, that would mean between 52% and 58%.....

[Maestro64]

Lets hope Apple does not fall victim to the same thing Motorola did with the RAZR. Everyone wanted one but it was too costly to own, then the Service providers started giving them away, then everyone had one and no one wanted them anymore, this toasted Motorola, that and the fact they did not have a follow on product which people saw value in.

The other thing is I have not heard if Apple has marketing and sales teams going out and showing the value of owning an iphone as part of an enterprise IT solution. Unless Apple is directly doing this most IT department will not come to this conclusion on their own.

I also, see the apps as an issue for corporate IT departments since they would not want people installing this stuff on a corporate phone. Apple will need to provide a way to limit what can be installed on the phone.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

At the risk of harming whatever benefits remain for Apple's under the lucrative deal with at&t, they need to start selling iPhones with other carriers. This is the only thing they can do to ensure rapid, sustainable growth for the future.

They have branched out. They’re in about 90 countries now and are selling a cheaper model. Once that reach saturation with those then they can move into other carriers, but I think that is the most tricky option for Apple as they need to have more than one carrier in the same market offering the same backend services and allowing Apple to same control they had with one carrier. If anyone can pull off such a deal I think it’s Apple.

In the US this is even more tricky as they’d have to stock, not 5 versions at Apple Stores, but 10 versions. Though they could get around this issue by offering a more limited option for the new carrier. Regardless, we’d have various types with different radios in them. I could see the inclusion of T-Mobile’s wonky 3G spectrum in the single model, but I don’t think that CDMA/GSM/CDMA2000/WCDMA all-in-one radios are small enough to work at this time in the iPhone.

But I do think that there will be a change up for next year’s release as it does seem that AT&T will be getting to it’s exclusivity saturation point this year.

Originally Posted by davidT

quick question: do many people have difficulty using the iphones on-screen keyboard?

I can type just as fast on the iphone as I ever could on the blackberry, and find the auto-correction on iphone pretty good. but I keep hearing that for email, twitter etc a 'real' keyboard is far better than the iphone's solution....

with a little practice, and especially now with the landscape mode, typing can't be slower on iphone surely?
-D

I find lanscape mode very difficult to use. Much faster with portrait mode with my thumbs. I think that overall the typing is easier, since people I know with iPhones send much longer messages to me than people with other phones, but that is hardly evidence.

[mstone]

and 95% who purchased the higher capacity 6GB original iPhone when it was launched in 2007.

Is this supposed to be 8GB?

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by Maestro64

Lets hope Apple does not fall victim to the same thing Motorola did with the RAZR. Everyone wanted one but it was too costly to own, then the Service providers started giving them away, then everyone had one and no one wanted them anymore, this toasted Motorola, that and the fact they did not have follow on product.

It doesn’t look that way at all. They have a new device each year with very real HW improvements and a plethora of SW updates for their devices.

I also, see the apps as an issue for corporate IT departments since they would not want people installing this stuff on a corporate phone. Apple will need to provide a way to limit what can be installed on the phone.

It’s not well know but they have such a tool for the Enterprise already in v2.0. It’s quite slick.

[Xian Zhu Xuande]

Originally Posted by davidT

quick question: do many people have difficulty using the iphones on-screen keyboard?

I can type just as fast on the iphone as I ever could on the blackberry, and find the auto-correction on iphone pretty good. but I keep hearing that for email, twitter etc a 'real' keyboard is far better than the iphone's solution....

with a little practice, and especially now with the landscape mode, typing can't be slower on iphone surely?
-D

I can type faster on the iPhone than I ever could have on one of those little physical keyboards. I'm well past 50 WPM on the goofy thing, unless I'm typing something that involves lots of strange acronyms (but then again, capitalization on the physical keyboards is also a time delay). It took some adjusting, but I love it.

I can see an argument based on having to look at the iPhone more than the Blackberry. The tactile feedback of the Blackberry would make it easier to type without looking, but that's inconsequential to me. And I'll trade the other keyboard features for that 'loss', and the benefits of having no physical keyboard, any day.

[phalanx]

It is just one data point.

How many people went back to their Blackberry/other phone after trying the iPhone?
How many of the million sold went to current iPhone owners?

[melgross]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Actually, no. If the margin of error is, say +-x% and the proportion of respondents is y%, that would mean between (y+x)% and (y-x%). So, for example, if 55% said they would vote for a candidate in a poll with a margin of error of +-3%, that would mean between 52% and 58%.....

I really didn't want to get into all of that.

But it does end up with about the numbers I expressed. You don't have to get too technical about it. Simplicity is best here. We're not in class.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by solipsism

I find lanscape mode very difficult to use. Much faster with portrait mode with my thumbs. I think that overall the typing is easier, since people I know with iPhones send much longer messages to me than people with other phones, but that is hardly evidence.

See, this is interesting, because it's considered that the landscape physical keyboards are much easier to use than the portrait ones. The Pre was criticized in several reviews for going portrait rather than going landscape.

You must have very short thumbs.

[Virgil-TB2]

Originally Posted by melgross

While I find typing on the vertical keyboard to be fine. typing on the landscape one is much faster. In my case about twice as fast.

Just for the data point, I find the opposite. In landscape I hit the spacebar an inordinate amount of the time instead of a letter and that cuts my speed down.

To the OP: These kinds of things are always going to be subjective and dependant on the individuals talents and desires so asking which keyboard is faster is (probably) an unanswerable question.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by melgross

We're not in class.

Fair enough.

But it really is quite important to note that there's a huge difference between 12% +-X%, and 12% +- (X% of 12%). And, in all fairness, since you had said that he was "misunderstanding the numbers," it is important to note that the original poster, markb, was interpreting the concept correctly (although he was calculating the number incorrectly, as I pointed out above).

[davidT]

Originally Posted by solipsism

I find lanscape mode very difficult to use. Much faster with portrait mode with my thumbs. I think that overall the typing is easier, since people I know with iPhones send much longer messages to me than people with other phones, but that is hardly evidence.

Yes, landscape is taking me time to get used to as well, but I recall it took some time to get typing fast with iphone in the first place, after 2 weeks I was fast with 2 thumbs. and today I'm typing in landscape faster than i was 2 days ago.

In addition the versatility (changing keyboards for different languages, special symbols etc) is fantastic. i have type in 3 languages and this is the best typing experience so far, better than on any other smartphone I've used

I hear from people who have no iphone that 'it must take ages to complete a message when you're typing with the index finger' - no idea where this misconception comes from.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by melgross

See, this is interesting, because it's considered that the landscape physical keyboards are much easier to use than the portrait ones. The Pre was criticized in several reviews for going portrait rather than going landscape.

You must have very short thumbs.

Not at all, I never lost a thumb wrestling match if that tells you anything.

I find landscape best for physical keyboards, which is why I find Palms portrait mode keyboard a bad move. Perhaps I’m just used to it after nearly 2 years but I find the shorter range of movement and the ability to keep the thumbs pointed directly down at the keys much easier than with landscape.

I do quite a bit of postings here from my iPhone. You can usually tell because I’ll have an unusual number of words that are similar but wrong for the sentence.

[markb]

Originally Posted by melgross

I really didn't want to get into all of that.

But it does end up with about the numbers I expressed. You don't have to get too technical about it. Simplicity is best here. We're not in class.

No. Simplicity is best but saying that there is less than a 1.5% when the sample size is 256 is just plain wrong. There is an approximate +-4% on this one so if you performed the survey again you would expect to find somewhere between 21 and 41 people (8%-16%) were switching on average. The +-.75% spread you are suggesting would mean they could perform the same survey and 31 people +-2 people would say they had dumped the BB.

[Virgil-TB2]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

AApproximately 12% of consumers who visited a retail store this past weekend to make their iPhone 3G S purchase said they were replacing a BlackBerry handset, the latest sign that Apple continues to make headway against rival Research in Motion in the high-stakes smartphone market. ...

Based on my personal observations I think this trend of eating into the Blackberry market is likely to continue. While the common wisdom is that Blackberry users are serious corporate types, the Blackberry, (especially the Bold and the Pearl), has been very popular with average consumers, especially young women, for quite a while in my area.

I work at a large University and take the train to work every day and what I see is the Blackberry devices being very, very popular amongst the younger texting crowd on the train, but these folks almost always have an iPod in their lap as well. It's a safe bet that most of these people will eventually move to a single device and given the demographics, this device is likely to be an iPhone.

IMO the portion of Blackberry's clientele that are "hard core" corporate users (basically those that have the Blackberry given to them by their workplace), will stick with it, but it's future as a consumer smartphone seems very dim indeed.

Young university types are often leading indicators of these markets and on my daily commute, it seems like the iPhone is just passing the 50% mark about now when I look about me on the train whereas even a month ago it was more like 60/40 for blackberry. This is just one tiny data point for sure, but interesting nonetheless.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Fair enough.

But it really is quite important to note that there's a huge difference between 12% +-X%, and 12% +- (X% of 12%). And, in all fairness, since you had said that he was "misunderstanding the numbers," it is important to note that the original poster, markb, was interpreting the concept correctly (although he was calculating the number incorrectly, as I pointed out above).

You'll find that the numbers are about the same, and well within the margin of accuracy. I was merely trying to show that 12% isn't either 6% or 18%. If I knew you would be so picky, I would have used the other way of calculating it, which would have given almost the same exact answer, but is more confusing to most people.

I trust that ends this?

[JupiterOne]

I too have great difficulty typing in landscape mode. I can type MUCH faster vertically with one finger and letting auto-correct fix any mistakes.

And on that note, has anyone else notice that it seems they've changed some things in the auto-correct? im now auto-corrects to IM . It used to auto-correct to I'm. But ill used to not auto-correct at all. Now it auto-corrects to I'll.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by markb

No. Simplicity is best but saying that there is less than a 1.5% when the sample size is 256 is just plain wrong. There is an approximate +-4% on this one so if you performed the survey again you would expect to find somewhere between 21 and 41 people (8%-16%) were switching on average. The +-.75% spread you are suggesting would mean they could perform the same survey and 31 people +-2 people would say they had dumped the BB.

No. Not correct.

[davidT]

Originally Posted by melgross

See, this is interesting, because it's considered that the landscape physical keyboards are much easier to use than the portrait ones. The Pre was criticized in several reviews for going portrait rather than going landscape.

You must have very short thumbs.

As i wrote in the other reply about landscape: I think it'll just take us a few more days to get used to. right now I find the 'sides' of my thumbs are triggering unwanted letters as I type in landscape, especially towards the centre of the keyboard (letters: TZU, FGH, CVB)

i'm sure it's just early awkwardness :-)

-D

[markb]

Originally Posted by melgross

No. Not correct.

The only point I was trying to make with my initially back of the envelope math...The 12%+-4% they report is very close to (and might overlap) the 6%+-4% they reported last year. Take it with a huge grain of salt.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by melgross

No. Not correct.

I would have been happy to end this, per your request above. But since you felt compelled to respond to markb, I have to say again that markb is correct, and you are incorrect.

It is extremely important to use/present/discuss some of these ideas accurately, since they are widely prevalent notions in the popular realm and in public discourse. The differences between what you are saying and what markb is saying are not just statistically meaningful (in which case, one would let it go in a forum like this), but economically meaningful.

Sorry, melgross, but it matters.

(That's all I intend to say about it).

[quinney]

These sales numbers are not going to motivate AT&T to lower their plan prices
any time soon.

[davidT]

Originally Posted by JupiterOne

I too have great difficulty typing in landscape mode. I can type MUCH faster vertically with one finger and letting auto-correct fix any mistakes.

And on that note, has anyone else notice that it seems they've changed some things in the auto-correct? im now auto-corrects to IM . It used to auto-correct to I'm. But ill used to not auto-correct at all. Now it auto-corrects to I'll.

I have not noticed this new behaviour,
maybe your changes have come about through your selections in auto-correction?

solely based on my observations I think the auto correction 'learns'. ie if you deny a correction suggestion a few times, it will accept your initial proposal, and accept this into it's dictionary as default.

Eg: when i typed "L", iphone immediately proposed "LOL",
since I was typing my friend's initials, i turned down "LOL" and typed "LC"
after 2 or 3 times, it stopped suggesting "LOL" and since then suggests "LC"

however: recently I intended to type "LOL", so I denied "LC", and now it's gone back to suggesting LOL every time i type a capital "L".

so maybe if you deny IM and type I'm, it will efault back to that?

either way, I find it's still the best auto completion I have come across
-D

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

At the risk of harming whatever benefits remain for Apple's under the lucrative deal with at&t, they need to start selling iPhones with other carriers. This is the only thing they can do to ensure rapid, sustainable growth for the future.

You're right, but a contract is a contract right.

BTW, who is this AT&T person you keep on mentioning?

[bulk001]

Originally Posted by davidT

quick question: do many people have difficulty using the iphones on-screen keyboard?

I can type just as fast on the iphone as I ever could on the blackberry, and find the auto-correction on iphone pretty good. but I keep hearing that for email, twitter etc a 'real' keyboard is far better than the iphone's solution....

with a little practice, and especially now with the landscape mode, typing can't be slower on iphone surely?
-D

The problem is that if you are in a meeting and your wag texts you, you have to look while you type as there is no point of reference. If you have a physical keyboard it is a lot easier to text without being a distraction in a meeting.