AppleTV not yet an iFlop

Posted:
in Future Apple Hardware edited January 2014
I've been daydreaming about the AppleTV ever since it came out, and the recent Forbes article labeling it the "iFlop" has inspired this post. Roughly Drafted has responded to the article pointing out inaccuracies and dubious claims, but I'm interested in the future of the device. My guess is that Apple has big plans for the little box, and Apple may be uniquely positioned to dominate digital video as thoroughly as it currently dominates digital audio. What's most exciting is the potential integration between the Mac, the AppleTV and the iPhone/Touch that might eventually ennable true media convergence. A summary of my ideas is followed by more detailed speculation.



1. iTunes begins renting video, both movies and tv programs.

2. New software turns the iPhone/Touch into a super-remote, integrating iTunes store, internet capabilities and television viewing into one seamless experience. Key features include:

\ta. Control AppleTV and iTunes store from touch screen.

\tb. Onscreen program guide for all television sources - simply touch an entry to select it.

\tc. Preview channels on small screen before sending to television screen.

\td. Allow tv programs to include meta-data that points to web pages viewable on iPhone/Touch.

3. AppleTV adds games which use the iPhone/Touch as a controller.

4. AppleTV incorporates DVR, incredibly easy and elegant when controlled by iPhone/Touch.



Video is vastly different than music. People may want to own digital music, but for various reasons they don't have the same desire for most digital video. We all know that Apple is working on video rental, and when it materializes it could change the outlook for AppleTV overnight, especially if it features 1) decent quality video, 2) fair prices and 3) a substantial catalog. Questions about what counts as decent quality video are debateable, but fair prices and a substantial catalog are really the hard parts of the equation because they require negotiation with the movie and television studios. However, it may be a lot easier to get the movie industry to agree to RENT videos than it has been to sell them. The current rumors that put movie rentals at $2.99 for 30 days would be great news for customers, and it's not that hard to believe that some studios might accept this. After all, they would likely make signficantly more money from $2.99 digital rentals than they currently make selling a fixed number of DVD's to Blockbuster or Netflix. Moreover, digital rentals would not necessarily cut significantly into consumer DVD sales. At any rate, convincing the industry to try this, and to ignore threats from Walmart and others, is probably the biggest hurdle to AppleTV's success.



I further speculate that Apple is also working to make tv programs available as rentals. Some rumors have suggested that Apple is trying to get NBC and others to drop prices to 99¢. That would be a very hard sell, but maybe not impossible if it's a rental price instead of a purchase price. And if they are successful, it might be a price point that would really ignite sales. (Of course, there's no reason that the option to purchase couldn't remain available, at say $2.99 an episode. Consider this: Apple reported in a press release that NBC asked for numbers that would equal retail prices of $4.99 per episode. That seems less outrageous if NBC was proposing this as a purchase price to contrast with a 99¢ rental price.)



At any rate, it is inevitable that digital video distribution will dramatically increase, and Apple will get a piece of the pie. But if all Apple does is offer rentals and sell a wireless box that connects the computer to the television, what would set Apple's solution apart from the competition? Indeed, the game console makers already have boxes connected to televisions that don't need computers, so it would seem that Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo ought to have a serious advantage in this area.



Of course, a large part of what makes Apple special is that it's smarter and more capable than the competition, and it's focused on making products easier to use and more elegant. But I think there's another, more tangible issue to consider, something that could give Apple a unique advantage and allow innovation that the others can't even Touch (pun intended).



Convergence between television and internet has been both prophesied and derided for over a decade. It has been correctly observed that using the internet and watching television are fundamentally different experiences, and yet there are elements of the two which are obviously complementary. I think the iPhone and the iPod Touch (and their successors) are the intermediaries that can unite these two platforms.



As it stands, to download and view any programming from internet to television, you have to sit in front of the computer and make the purchase, and/or you have to navigate through menus on your television using a controller or a remote. Imagine how much nicer the experience would be if you could control the whole process from a touchscreen sitting on the couch without even interrupting what you're currently watching. Imagine you're viewing Southpark with a friend and she mentions an episode you haven't seen. You whip out the Touch, go to the iTunes store, order the episode, and it's ready to play as soon as the program you're watching is over. There is a huge convenience factor here, not to mention a huge cool factor, and there is nothing about this which would be difficult for Apple to implement today. Heck, the wireless iTunes store already exists!



Along with a large cheap rental catalog, a wireless iTunes store for video might all by itself add the level of ease and elegance that turns the AppleTV into the gold standard for digital video download, but so much more is possible. I don't know enough about the technologies involved to know exactly what current AppleTV's and iPhones/Touchs can do with software updates, but I'm pretty sure the things I'm about to describe would not demand very substantial hardware changes to make them possible in future versions.



First of all, why not let the iPhone/Touch perform as a super-remote via the AppleTV, controlling ALL of your television viewing; cable, broadcast and download? Channel flipping is primitive and annoying, and with an onscreen program directory it could be virtually eliminated, especially if the iPhone/Touch could actually display tv video streams. Imagine how happy it would make our families if we could search through channels in the palm of our hand before selecting a program to display on the television set? Or again, how cool would it be if the touch could show multiple channels simultaneously and you could choose which one to send to the television with a tap? It seems to me that there is no end to the possibilities for a super-remote, and the appeal would be enormous. Indeed, I have wondered over the years why such super-remotes don't exist, but I suppose the answer is simply that the technology is only recently come into being; wireless n, tiny powerful processors, inexpensive touch screens, not to mention the numerous powerful technologies in OS X.



But even this might only be the beginning. True convergence of internet and television would be possible if video streams include web addresses as meta-data. The more obvious initial uses might be related to advertising: Imagine that during a commercial the iPhone/Touch receives a URL that links to a website for more info and/or purchase. You'd want to be able to ignore this most of the time, but at times you'd be excited to visit the site. It may seem like such meta-data would have limited value for most television shows (after all we can't vote American Idol-style on every program), but I suspect many cool uses would emerge once the ability was so easy to take advantage of, especially if it was built into the device that we are already using as a TV remote.



I can imagine a time when convergence is so far along that news programming becomes completely customized. Tuning into the evening news means sitting down (whenever you want) and getting a summary of the big stories from your favorite anchor, and then choosing what issues you want to hear about in more depth. Of course, you can already do something like this on the internet, but with the iPhone/Touch as an interface we can bring the experience to the living room with the production/presentation values of television and the personal selectivity of the internet. Something similar could happen for online shopping. It's hard to sit at the computer screen and watch quicktime movies about products, but if you could shop Amazon from your couch using the iPhone/Touch to navigate, while relevant product demos play on the television, many people would find this both useful and satisfying.



In short, it seems to me that once we have a device like the iPhone/Touch allowing us to both navigate the internet and control our televisions there is no end to the possibilities. The iPhone/Touch is the input device that makes convergence a real possibility. It gets its foot in the door in the guise of a super-remote, and along the way it makes the AppleTV an essential product, and it makes the iTunes store the premier source for the distribution of digital video.



To round things out, it also seems likely that AppleTV will eventually incorporate at least casual gaming. It would be way cool if some of these games utilized the iPhone/Touch as an input device. In fact, there is a hole in the gaming market that someone like Apple should fill. Nintendo is great for the kid in all of us, and Xbox and Playstation are great for hard core gamers, but who caters to college kids and adults who want quality, casual games, like trivia games and simple arcade games?



Finally, if Apple would add DVR capabilities to the AppleTV and make these controllable with a program on the iPhone/Touch the product would be unstoppable. I've always suspected that Apple can't add DVR capabilities without alientating the television studios, and they may even see this ability as a conflict with the iTunes store (even though I think that's false), but we can dream. Can't we?



Anyway, I hope you've enjoyed my speculation. I have no idea if any of it will come to pass, but I'm sure not ready to call the AppleTV the iFlop.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 49
    Great stuff, MacJello. I don't think any of it is too far-fetched. And yeah, Forbes' article calling the AppleTV a flop was way too premature and full of holes.
  • Reply 2 of 49
    Forbes is notoriously weak on research. They suck.
  • Reply 3 of 49
    I really think AppleTV needs a built-in DVD player. Ideally an HD or Bluray combo but mostly a plain old DVD.



    For the simple reason of backwards compatibility. Many have a huge DVD collection, how are they viewed? Yet another box. It would be nice to get rid of the DVD player and just have an Apple TV.



    Yes, I can re-rip all my DVDs so they play on the Apple TV. But that takes a long time and a lot of space. Why do it? If the AppleTV had a DVD player that's no longer an issue.





    In the brave new world of all-virtual digital entertainment the Apple TV will shine, but for now we still have physical media and I think the Apple TV has to acknowledge that transition period. Otherwise it is too far ahead and people don't know what to do with it.



    As cool as it is, I won't buy one just to view my holiday pics on TV...

    And with buying TV shows, it merely means spending even more money. What if I already have those shows on DVD? Re-rip all of them? Too much work. And actually illegal.

    Just add a friggin' DVD player!



    If they don't acknowledge the need for one during the current transition period from DVD to all virtual entertainment, I think it might well end up an iFlop... For the mere fact that it is too far ahead of its time.
  • Reply 4 of 49
    I think AppleTV has a massive potential. I already use it as much as my DVD player for my movies and I can't remember the last time I plaid a CD. AppleTV is such a nice way to organise your music library and have a visual representation through your AV system.



    Like MacJello said, the iPhone/iPod Touch have the potential to become great AV remotes. I currently use a Logitech Harmony 1000 and think it's great. Activity based remotes are the way forward and I'm sure Apple, with their software greatness, would be able to come up with a stellar performer.



    Give AppleTV 720p and 1080p compatibility, true 5.1/7.1 support and HD iTMS downloads and I think Apple will have the device SJ saw in his AppleTV dream.
  • Reply 5 of 49
    mr. hmr. h Posts: 4,870member
    Welcome to AI, MacJello!



    That was quite some first post! You did forget a couple of things though: how about support for audio better than stereo? What about other video codecs such as MPEG-4 part 2 Advanced Simple Profile (aka Xvid), DivX, MPEG-4 part 10 (aka H.264) High Profile, WMV, and MPEG-2?



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hobBIT View Post


    What if I already have those shows on DVD? Re-rip all of them? Too much work. And actually illegal.



    Not necessarily. Never been tested in court. There's certainly a very strong case that it is legal under "fair use".
  • Reply 6 of 49
    jcgjcg Posts: 777member
    As I recall it is legal to copy a DVD (or CD) as a back-up for personal use. It is illegal to break the copy for the disk. So storing a complete copy of a disk is OK as long as it is for personal use. Copying part of the disk (say the movie only) and converting it to a new file format (aka. RIPPING) is technically illegal even if it is for personal use becouse it stripps out the original DRM. As Mr H states this has not been tested in the courts. Depending on how the courts interpret the Digital Melenium Copyright Act (I think that's the one that covers this) and how it weighs it against the Fair Use provisions of other copyright laws, which have been in force a lot longer and have a lot more precidence set in past cases, this may not be illegal since it does conflict with Fair Use. I would think that the courts would hold Fair Use over the DMCA anti-copy provisions if tested in courts, but with the current conservitive pro-business bias of the government and the courts I would not bet on it. I do however think that it is unlikely that a case against an individual that is really using the copy for his or her personal use would be taken to court (how would the production companies know you have done it?). What is more likely is that a case would be brought against those who "pirate" the video for sale or sharing on P2P networks which I think is a legitimat concern for the studios.
  • Reply 7 of 49
    mr. hmr. h Posts: 4,870member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JCG View Post


    Copying part of the disk (say the movie only) and converting it to a new file format (aka. RIPPING) is technically illegal even if it is for personal use becouse it stripps out the original DRM.



    This isn't quite accurate. The DMCA makes the distribution of software that lets you do this illegal. It does not categorically make it illegal for an individual to use said software for their own fair use. It's all a bit of a muddle really. Given that the DMCA has failed to stop the distribution of Handbrake and the like, the point is moot. You can easily rip your legally purchased DVDs to various formats for your own personal use. If you do this, you need have no fear of someone knocking on your door one day and trying to arrest you for it.
  • Reply 8 of 49
    I second the need for a DVD player included in the Apple TV. At present, our house has a Mac Mini connected to a 22" monitor. Since my G4 Mac Mini doesn't have enough 'umph' to do all that I need it to do, we'll be adding an iMac soon. Instead of having to maintain two separate computers (iMac and Mac Mini as a DVD player, home entertainment system), I want to keep all my media on the iMac and deliver it to the AppleTV for our home entertainment needs.



    But when I was explaining all this to the Mrs., I mentioned the huge drawback: there's no DVD player! She laughed and said "no way". Not to give you all the impression that the Mrs. calls the shots, I'm in total agreement with her. With an AppleTV, I might actually be inclined to purchase shows off iTunes to watch. But I still enjoy the time-honored tradition of going down to the video rental shop and picking out a couple movies to watch. To use the AppleTV, I would have to *illegally* rip a rented DVD just to be able to watch it from the iMac. No dice. Without an AppleTV, the chances of us buying any video from iTunes is 0%. With an appleTV, the chances go up to something like 60%. Without a DVD player of some flavor (Standard or Hi-Def, I don't care), the chances of us even adding an AppleTV to our home? 0%.



    Steve, the DVD may be dead to you, but without a drive, the AppleTV is dead to me.
  • Reply 9 of 49
    mr. hmr. h Posts: 4,870member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ranum View Post


    I second the need for a DVD player included in the Apple TV.



    ...



    Steve, the DVD may be dead to you, but without a drive, the AppleTV is dead to me.



    I'm confused. Could you explain how getting an AppleTV would require you throw-away/otherwise-get-rid-of the DVD player you presumably already have?
  • Reply 10 of 49
    Big ass DVD collection + being amazingly lazy = HTPC...



    I love sitting down on my couch and thumbing through my DVD collection via CoverFlow.



    I find that I watch more movies that I typically wouldn't watch because it is so easy to access. On top of the fact that I can just select a movie, than fast forward/skip to the scene I want to watch... WITHOUT LEAVING MY COUCH!



    Don't knock it before you try it... rip a few DVDs to your computer, sync with your AppleTV and see if you like it. Don't get me work, it takes forever... or at least feels that way... but well worth it once you are done.



    Got my father hooked on Apple, and he HATES technology...
  • Reply 11 of 49
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mr. H View Post


    I'm confused. Could you explain how getting an AppleTV would require you throw-away/otherwise-get-rid-of the DVD player you presumably already have?



    As I wrote, I don't want to have to maintain two separate computers. As it is now, I'll have to keep the DVD capable Mac Mini G4 attached to our 22" Home Entertainment monitor. The Mac Mini is the only DVD-capable player in our home now. When our new iMac comes, all iTunes music, iPhoto photos, iMovie movies, etc. will be on the iMac with no way to stream that content to the Mac Mini attached to our 22" Home Entertainment monitor. And with the Mac Mini being a G4, no "Front Row" even with the Leopard OS upgrade. So, there is no way to have all of our multimedia in one place and controllable with a remote in our home entertainment setup. An AppleTV with a DVD player would replace the Mac Mini, and all of the media on the iMac will be accessible and controllable in our home entertainment setup with a single remote. But as long as the AppleTV doesn't have the ability to play DVDs or to stream a DVD from the iMac, we'll have to use the Mac Mini just to watch DVDs. Not only that, but I'll have to wire up a toggle switch to be able to switch between the Mac Mini for watching DVDs and the iMac for listening to music from iTunes through my home entertainment speakers. Photo-viewing on the home entertainment screen? Nope. Movie Trailer previews, YouTube surfing, everything available in the single "Front Row" interface? Nope. Etc...
  • Reply 12 of 49
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ranum View Post


    An AppleTV with a DVD player would replace the Mac Mini, and all of the media on the iMac will be accessible and controllable in our home entertainment setup with a single remote. But as long as the AppleTV doesn't have the ability to play DVDs or to stream a DVD from the iMac, we'll have to use the Mac Mini just to watch DVDs.



    The lack of DVD player in the Apple TV is not a deficiency in that product, but rather the lack of DVD player in your living room is a deficiency in your home theatre system. You're probably one of the only people in the country who doesn't already own a dedicated DVD player.
  • Reply 13 of 49
    guarthoguartho Posts: 1,208member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post


    The lack of DVD player in the Apple TV is not a deficiency in that product, but rather the lack of DVD player in your living room is a deficiency in your home theatre system. You're probably one of the only people in the country who doesn't already own a dedicated DVD player.



    Oh that's rich. He just explained the deficiency of having a dedicated DVD player as part of his setup.
  • Reply 14 of 49
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post


    The lack of DVD player in the Apple TV is not a deficiency in that product, but rather the lack of DVD player in your living room is a deficiency in your home theatre system. You're probably one of the only people in the country who doesn't already own a dedicated DVD player.



    And I don't WANT to own a dedicated DVD player! That's exactly the point. Why would I want Apple TV AND a dedicated DVD player? It's a simple thing for Apple to add a disc drive to the AppleTV. I laugh at my relatives who own a dedicated DVD player, an X-Box or PlayStation with a DVD player, a high-powered computer with (you guessed it) a DVD player. Why do they need so many DVD players?



    My preference (and it is just my preference, although I'm sure there are others like me) is to not try and pack as much consumer electronics into a small space for watching movies. [edit] I'm also not interested in all of the extra cabling that would be required to add a dedicated DVD drive alongside an Apple TV and having to switch back and forth. [/edit] But the real point that is getting lost here is that I would be actually be willing to give Apple more money for downloadable shows if I had an AppleTV. But with no DVD player (so I can take the Mac Mini out of the picture altogether), no AppleTV. And no AppleTV means I'm not likely to buy downloadable TV shows, movies or anything else. If Apple gives me a DVD player in the AppleTV, I'll give Apple my money and more when I download shows and movies.
  • Reply 15 of 49
    gugygugy Posts: 794member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post


    The lack of DVD player in the Apple TV is not a deficiency in that product, but rather the lack of DVD player in your living room is a deficiency in your home theatre system. You're probably one of the only people in the country who doesn't already own a dedicated DVD player.







    I don't understand why people want AppleTV to have a DVD player so bad. Apple is moving away from that media. iDVD had basically no upgrade on the last iLife suite. FC Studio did not upgrade the DVD Studio Pro app. Steve downplayed it at the keynote.



    AppleTV is going to continue to be a simple device that is aimed mostly at digital downloads either from the iTunes store or something that you will take the time to rip. The device is a bridge between or Mac and your TV. All the current macs have a dvd player on it, so why do we need it on AppleTV? rip the dvd and put it on iTunes and watch it using AppleTV.



    My biggest wish for AppleTV 2.0 is 1080p and 5.1 audio.
  • Reply 16 of 49
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by gugy View Post


    rip the dvd and put it on iTunes and watch it using AppleTV.



    Easier said than done. Few people have the time, hard drive space or desire to use Handbrake or some other tool to get video off a DVD. Apple shouldn't count on people doing this when figuring out who to market the Apple TV toward. I used my iMac to convert "Walk the Line" to a file suitable for display on my fiancée's 5G iPod, and I had to leave it on overnight. Even on the fastest machines, this process takes well over an hour. It's just not worthwhile for 95 percent of the population.
  • Reply 17 of 49
    gugygugy Posts: 794member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tetzel1517 View Post


    Easier said than done. Few people have the time, hard drive space or desire to use Handbrake or some other tool to get video off a DVD. Apple shouldn't count on people doing this when figuring out who to market the Apple TV toward. I used my iMac to convert "Walk the Line" to a file suitable for display on my fiancée's 5G iPod, and I had to leave it on overnight. Even on the fastest machines, this process takes well over an hour. It's just not worthwhile for 95 percent of the population.



    I agree, so that's why you should use a regular DVD player like 99% of the population and pop that disc on it and we are all happy.



    My point is that people are trying to add too many things to AppleTV. Don't over complicate and add costs to the device. The concept behind the AppleTV is simplicity. Once you add a dvd player, blu-ray player, etc. The thing loses the main focus that is the bridge between Mac and TV. Plus Apple clearly are pushing to digital downloads now. They are not focusing on physical media.
  • Reply 18 of 49
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by gugy View Post


    I don't understand why people want AppleTV to have a DVD player so bad...



    ...All the current macs have a dvd player on it, so why do we need it on AppleTV? rip the dvd and put it on iTunes and watch it using AppleTV.



    My biggest wish for AppleTV 2.0 is 1080p and 5.1 audio.



    I guess I could ask the same question back to you: why do you want 1080p and 5.1 audio so bad? I could care less for both. But that doesn't make me right and you wrong. It's just what each of us wants. You want 1080p and 5.1 audio. I want a DVD player.



    I've already stated my reason for wanting an integrated DVD player, but I'm happy to explain it again until it is as clear as possible. The AppleTV can stream all kinds of media from any Mac and the media can all be kept in one location - on the Mac. All the media can be browsed on AppleTV with a remote - music, photos, videos, etc. But it can't stream a DVD playing from an iMac. So if I want to watch a DVD, I'll have to have a separate DVD player, remote control, power cable, audio cables, audio toggle switch all connected to my 22" LCD screen just to switch back and forth from AppleTV to a dedicated DVD player. No thanks.



    That iMacs have a DVD player is irrelevant if the iMac can't stream that DVD to an AppleTV connected to my home theater monitor. And, as I still own DVDs that I like to watch and rent them from a local video store, I need to be able to play DVDs on my home theater monitor. Should I just rip the DVDs to my iMac? Why should I use up that hard drive space just to duplicate media? Bah. Do you recommend that I *illegally* rip DVDs that I rent to my iMac hard drive just so I can watch it via AppleTV? Sorry, but ripping a movie takes too long as it is, and is not an option for movies that I don't own. (I do at least try and live by the spirit of copyright laws.)



    So only if AppleTV ever gets a disk drive will I get one. But I'd like one and think it would be a great solution - better than using a dedicated Front Row-incompatible G4 Mac Mini solely as a DVD player - especially when the AppleTV would give me access to ALL of my media, even DVDs.
  • Reply 19 of 49
    guarthoguartho Posts: 1,208member
    I can't believe people are advocating taking your disk into the other room, ripping it for 1-6 hours and then watching on your AppleTV over putting your disk *drumroll please* directly in to your playback device. That's about the most un-apple, non-user-friendly workflow for relaxation I've ever heard.



    Not over-complicating the AppleTV is a fair point, and of course there's the whole DVD/HDDVD/Blu-ray issue to think about as well. No matter what drive you put in there you're going to be alienating some customers.



    This is an area that I'm surprised the after-market industry, or even Apple themselves haven't solved for us. A slim add-on with a single, short USB cable could solve all of this, allowing users to purchase the drive type of their choice, or none at all.
  • Reply 20 of 49
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Guartho View Post


    No matter what drive you put in there you're going to be alienating some customers.



    This is an area that I'm surprised the after-market industry, or even Apple themselves haven't solved for us. A slim add-on with a single, short USB cable could solve all of this, allowing users to purchase the drive type of their choice, or none at all.



    I don't agree with that solution either. If they put in a standard format slot-load DVD drive they could keep costs down and make purchasing decisions simple. If blu-ray drives were as cost effective I'd recommend they added one, as they play standard DVD's too, but they aren't. At the end of the day if you want a blu-ray player you should get a PS3, and if you want HD-DVD, you should buy that player.



    As for the rest of us with a regular DVD collection, the standard slot would do the trick. It would make it a more useful device and a far more sensible purchase. And Apple would move many more units as a result. Minimization, looks, cost-effectiveness, functionality and easier buying decisions, this is why they need to go all in one, and make it a standard DVD slot as a result.
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