Conflicting reports within Qualcomm suggest Verizon-only iPhone

[AppleInsider]

Additional evidence pointing to the introduction of a Verizon Wireless iPhone has surfaced, although reports differ in how Apple is expected to bring its smartphone to the CDMA carrier.

This morning, CDMA inventor Qualcomm announced official plans to release new dual-carrier chips that would enable future phones to work on both its own CDMA/EVDO carrier partners such as Verizon and Sprint, as well as rival 3GPP carriers using UMTS/HSPA+ technologies such as AT&T and T-Mobile. The new chips also provide future support for LTE, the next generation 3GPP standard that most carriers plan to begin testing for deployment globally over the next few years.

However, an analyst has cited sources within Qualcomm in stating that although the company would like to have a dual-mode handset ready in 2010, that would likely be impossible. Ashok Kumar, an analyst with Northeast Securities, told AppleInsider that a dual-mode iPhone from Apple wouldn't exist until 2011 at the earliest.

Kumar said what Qualcomm wants and what they can do are two different things. In order for a dual-mode iPhone to launch in the summer of 2010, such a device would have to be in field trial today.

"They're nowhere near that," he said.

Kumar said he believes it would be a "stretch" for Apple to introduce a dual-mode CDMA/EVDO and UMTS phone in 2010. Instead, he expects a CDMA-only phone specifically made for Verizon Wireless, the largest mobile carrier in the U.S., to debut in the second half of next year.

Kumar's research note was also cited in a report by GigaOm, which presented his conclusion as being that "Apple will launch a WCDMA/CDMA2000-enabled version of the device — not an LTE version — through Verizon by the summer of 2010."

Last week, AppleInsider cited a report that said that a Verizon-compatible "worldmode" iPhone would launch by Q3 2010, capable of working on both CDMA/EVDO and UMTS mobile networks. Qualcomm's press release states that it will be sampling advanced new dual-carrier HSPA+ and Multi-Mode 3G/LTE chipsets for launch in the second half of 2010, suggesting that such a product would be easy to deliver.

However, in an interview with AppleInsider Thursday, Kumar said, "Technically I think it will be a stretch to have both UMTS and CDMA, because not only do you have hardware issues in terms of the baseband, but also software issues. Eventually they will probably get there [with the iPhone], but that's probably a 2011 story, not a 2010 story."

According to Kumar's sources, the worldmode chip technology isn't currently available for prototype phones being built in anticipation of manufacturing for a summer 2010 debut. In addition, he said, any new chipsets would have a prohibitively high cost.

"It's very likely they're trying to hit a low price point, maybe a $99 price point," Kumar said of a potential Verizon iPhone.

If things turn out as his sources expect, Kumar said Verizon and Apple hope to hit the market with a new CDMA-only iPhone model by late summer or early fall.

"Trying to do a world phone in that time frame would be impossible," he said.

[Consultant]

I seriously doubt there will be a verizon only iPhone. CDMA is a dead technology.

[syriana]

maybe Apple is working with icera, who claims to have a software technology that would already enable worldphone...

[iPhone91]

Agreed. Apple's goal is to build products that just work, no matter where you are. A CDMA only iPhone doesn't fit into this vision very well. If there ever is a CDMA iPhone, it'll have UMTS/LTE to back it up.

[vercordio]

Wow, someone actually being realistic about technology rollout possibilities. I'm impressed!

Originally Posted by Consultant

I seriously doubt there will be a verizon only iPhone. CDMA is a dead technology.

I hear you on this, and I'm not going to stake my reputation on what I'm about to say, but I do think there's a market for a CDMA Verizon Wireless iPhone. Yes, it'll be out of date the moment it's released, but that doesn't mean it also won't sell into the millions. If - and, again, I'm only positing this for discussion purposes, not as a forceful argument - Apple believes that the equation will come out in their favor (i.e. income from CDMA iPhone sales - cost of producing CDMA iPhones) with a wide enough margin, they may be willing to do it.

Apple likes money. I'm not saying that to be insulting. But it's a fact. The decisions they make are geared toward making more money, and they'll do whatever works out the best in that direction.

[charlituna]

cue the person that says that the new verizon ads are proof positive that a CDMA phone is in the works. and the ads with their constant use of an iphone stand in, are a pre strike to get folks into the idea that the Verizon net is better for the iphone so they won't re-up an ATT contract etc before the ViPhone is released

and while that has some logic to it, I can't help remembering that CDMA wasn't good enough for the iphone before so what suddenly made it so much better now

[John.B]

Originally Posted by iPhone91

Agreed. Apple's goal is to build products that just work, no matter where you are. A CDMA only iPhone doesn't fit into this vision very well. If there ever is a CDMA iPhone, it'll have UMTS/LTE to back it up.

I agree. They may issue a joint GSM/CDMA iPhone or a GSM/CDMA/LTE iPhone but there isn't going to be a separate CDMA-only iPhone that won't work outside the US. Not gonna happen.

That said, a GSM/CDMA iPhone or GSM/CDMA/LTE iPhone would be the off-the-charts #1 smartphone the day it was released. Not just in sales dollars, in gross units and market share as well.

[psychodoughboy]

That would make the smaller form factor somewhat more sensible.

[NeverInDoubt]

Originally Posted by charlituna

cue the person that says that the new verizon ads are proof positive that a CDMA phone is in the works. and the ads with their constant use of an iphone stand in, are a pre strike to get folks into the idea that the Verizon net is better for the iphone so they won't re-up an ATT contract etc before the ViPhone is released

and while that has some logic to it, I can't help remembering that CDMA wasn't good enough for the iphone before so what suddenly made it so much better now

It's not that CDMA wasn't good enough, it was that Apple and Verizon couldn't reach a business agreement at the time.

iPhone market success has likely changed Verizon's interest in making a deal since then.

[John.B]

Originally Posted by NeverInDoubt

It's not that CDMA wasn't good enough, it was that Apple and Verizon couldn't reach a business agreement at the time.

iPhone market success has likely changed Verizon's interest in making a deal since then.

Exactly. Verizon likes a closed system (their PR department not withstanding). But I think they'd play by Apple's rules if they could chip away at AT&T's recent gains.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by Consultant

I seriously doubt there will be a verizon only iPhone. CDMA is a dead technology.

Agreed. This report is FUD.

Taking bets..... (figuratively, of course...).

[crees!]

Originally Posted by vercordio

I hear you on this, and I'm not going to stake my reputation on what I'm about to say, but I do think there's a market for a CDMA Verizon Wireless iPhone. Yes, it'll be out of date the moment it's released, but that doesn't mean it also won't sell into the millions. If - and, again, I'm only positing this for discussion purposes, not as a forceful argument - Apple believes that the equation will come out in their favor (i.e. income from CDMA iPhone sales - cost of producing CDMA iPhones) with a wide enough margin, they may be willing to do it.

Apple likes money. I'm not saying that to be insulting. But it's a fact. The decisions they make are geared toward making more money, and they'll do whatever works out the best in that direction.

Apple does like money. Most all businesses do and for that reason I agree with your point of view that they will release a CDMA-only phone. Why, money of course. You've seen Apple's recent reasoning on lowering of notebook prices. Income from the iPhone offsets those higher margins. Now if Apple releases a CDMA phone, banks that cash, then when the "world phone" comes about with a high price tag, Apple can use their profits to offset the cost market the phone at a reasonable consumer price. It's all about money folks.

[surebet07]

Originally Posted by Consultant

I seriously doubt there will be a verizon only iPhone. CDMA is a dead technology.

Agreed. I'm not sure that I would want a CDMA-only iPhone. No international coverage, no concurrent voice/data, relatively slow access (compared to the newer 3G speeds about to come out).

Verizon would have to be real aggressive on their price and monthly plans to win over new customers.

[John.B]

So would a Verizon-only phone not have access to visual voice mail? That'd suck, though the new users probably wouldn't know the difference.

If AT&T holds a patent on it (?), then there is no way they'd let Verizon have access to it. Not after the "there's a map for that" ads...

[chronster]

the dual radio is nice in my sprint TP2. I can roam on AT&T or Tmobile's network if need be, and with the sim unlocked, I can just buy a prepaid from tmobile and throw it in there if I ever need to.

I could see the iphone being just as versatile.

[chronster]

Originally Posted by John.B

So would a Verizon-only phone not have access to visual voice mail? That'd suck, though the new users probably wouldn't know the difference.

If AT&T holds a patent on it (?), then there is no way they'd let Verizon have access to it. Not after the "there's a map for that" ads...

It most definitely CAN have access. It's all a matter of setting up the voicemail server to send specific data to the phone. Verizon already has visual voicemail for an extra 3 bucks a month on many existing phones, so I don't see how this would be an "AT&T only" thing.

I just setup fusion VVM on my sprint TP2 and that's cdma. So visual voicemail isn't limited to anything other than the server the voicemail originates from and code to handle the functionality on the device.

[John.B]

Originally Posted by charlituna

cue the person that says that the new verizon ads are proof positive that a CDMA phone is in the works. and the ads with their constant use of an iphone stand in, are a pre strike to get folks into the idea that the Verizon net is better for the iphone so they won't re-up an ATT contract etc before the ViPhone is released

You are probably right. But the AT&T counter ad would show the people who can't surf Google, update their maps, run network-attached apps, etc. while taking a voice call.

The one real wrinkle in the Droid is that you can't surf Google while talking on the Google phone.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by syriana

maybe Apple is working with icera, who claims to have a software technology that would already enable worldphone...

It's not software. It's a chipset.

[John.B]

Originally Posted by chronster

It most definitely CAN have access. It's all a matter of setting up the voicemail server to send a specific datatype to the phone. Verizon already has visual voicemail for an extra 3 bucks a month on many existing phones, so I don't see how this would be an "AT&T only" thing.

I just setup fusion VVM on my sprint TP2 and that's cdma. So visual voicemail isn't limited to anything other than the server the voicemail originates from.

Thanks for setting the record straight. I only remember when the iPhone was first released and the RoW allegedly couldn't get VVM...

[melgross]

Originally Posted by charlituna

cue the person that says that the new verizon ads are proof positive that a CDMA phone is in the works. and the ads with their constant use of an iphone stand in, are a pre strike to get folks into the idea that the Verizon net is better for the iphone so they won't re-up an ATT contract etc before the ViPhone is released

and while that has some logic to it, I can't help remembering that CDMA wasn't good enough for the iphone before so what suddenly made it so much better now

I'm still doubtful, but if it comes out next year, it could be because Apple is now worldwide, and so wants to fill in their weakspots in the US.

They would also get Verizon to stop those Ads against them. (Hmm! I wonder if that's not Verizon's plan.)

[melgross]

Originally Posted by John.B

So would a Verizon-only phone not have access to visual voice mail? That'd suck, though the new users probably wouldn't know the difference.

If AT&T holds a patent on it (?), then there is no way they'd let Verizon have access to it. Not after the "there's a map for that" ads...

I believe it's Apple's patent.

[chronster]

Originally Posted by surebet07

Agreed. I'm not sure that I would want a CDMA-only iPhone. No international coverage, no concurrent voice/data, relatively slow access (compared to the newer 3G speeds about to come out).

Verizon would have to be real aggressive on their price and monthly plans to win over new customers.

Are you convincing yourself or others? Sounds like flawed reasoning, especially when this article answers your "no international coverage" issue (dual radio.)

Comparing today's networks to those "about to come" is unrealistic. AT&T isn't the only company looking to upgrade their network. Verizon's got LTE er whatever, and Sprint's already got 4G in many major cities.

It's like me saying I don't want to switch to AT&T for an iphone because of it's relatively slow access compared to the 4G Sprint's about to get.

BTW, Sprint's CDMA network has faster transfer rates than AT&T's.

[surebet07]

Originally Posted by chronster

Verizon already has visual voicemail for an extra 3 bucks a month on many existing phones, so I don't see how this would be an "AT&T only" thing.

So, it's true....Verizon Nickels and Dimes.

[solipsism]

This rumour is at least a little more believable. I’d still rather see a T-Mobile USA compatible device. They would likely bend to Apple’s will and nd AT&T is clearly being pushed to their network limits with a 5000% growth in data usage in 3 years.

Originally Posted by Consultant

I seriously doubt there will be a verizon only iPhone. CDMA is a dead technology.

CDMA is a dead-end tech that has peaked in the US, and is clearly obsolescing, but it’s neither dead nor obsolete at this time. CDMA will be around on Verizon’s network for at least the next decade and will be viable to Verizon and Sprint as the primary voice and data connection for at least the next 5 years. There is plenty of time for vendors to invest in and make money off CDMA-absed phones.

[John.B]

Originally Posted by melgross

They would also get Verizon to stop those Ads against them. (Hmm! I wonder if that's not Verizon's plan.)

Personally, I think it would only ramp up the negative ads between them.

Originally Posted by melgross

I believe it's Apple's patent.

Thanks.

[surebet07]

Originally Posted by chronster

Are you convincing yourself or others? Sounds like flawed reasoning, especially when this article answers your "no international coverage" issue (dual radio.)

Comparing today's networks to those "about to come" is unrealistic. AT&T isn't the only company looking to upgrade their network. Verizon's got LTE er whatever, and Sprint's already got 4G in many major cities.

It's like me saying I don't want to switch to AT&T for an iphone because of it's relatively slow access compared to the 4G Sprint's about to get.

BTW, Sprint's CDMA network has faster transfer rates than AT&T's.

I was talking about a CDMA-ONLY phone. Read my comments again.

[ghostface147]

Originally Posted by John.B

So would a Verizon-only phone not have access to visual voice mail? That'd suck, though the new users probably wouldn't know the difference.

If AT&T holds a patent on it (?), then there is no way they'd let Verizon have access to it. Not after the "there's a map for that" ads...

Verizon charges $2.99 for visual voicemail. The only way I would switch to Verizon is if they charged a lower rate for their monthly plans than AT&T, kept a similar ETF (none of that $350 crap), didn't charge extra for visual voicemail and didn't charge 30 bucks extra for tethering. Otherwise, I will stick with my solid AT&T service here in Houston.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by solipsism

This rumour is at least a little more believable. I’d still rather see a T-Mobile USA compatible device. They would likely bend to Apple’s will and nd AT&T is clearly being pushed to their network limits with a 5000% growth in data usage in 3 years.

T-Mobile is the WORST network. After all the griping about AT&T and their 3G from so many, you would want to go to T-Mobile?

http://coverage.t-mobile.com/default.aspx?MapType=Data

Look at the 3G coverage. It's those teeny bits that are dark magenta. Can you see them?

Even EDGE is very sparse.

[John.B]

Originally Posted by chronster

BTW, Sprint's CDMA network has faster transfer rates than AT&T's.

Apple is never going to partner up with Sprint with their push towards a proprietary 4G network. Not when all the other networks will be standardized on LTE.

Besides, Sprint doesn't even run their own network anymore, Ericsson does.

[lunga]

Originally Posted by vercordio

I hear you on this, and I'm not going to stake my reputation on what I'm about to say, but I do think there's a market for a CDMA Verizon Wireless iPhone. Yes, it'll be out of date the moment it's released, but that doesn't mean it also won't sell into the millions.

...And sell millions again when they transition to whatever new system (LTE)...

[melgross]

Originally Posted by John.B

Personally, I think it would only ramp up the negative ads between them.

If Verizon got the iPhone you think they would ramp the anti iPhone Ads up even further?

[melgross]

Originally Posted by ghostface147

Verizon charges $2.99 for visual voicemail. The only way I would switch to Verizon is if they charged a lower rate for their monthly plans than AT&T, kept a similar ETF (none of that $350 crap), didn't charge extra for visual voicemail and didn't charge 30 bucks extra for tethering. Otherwise, I will stick with my solid AT&T service here in Houston.

It's odd, but now that the $350 has been questioned by a member of Congress, they're saying that it's "optional", whatever that means. There's a bill that's just come up that will prevent things like this.

[Hudson1]

I don't get the whole "CDMA-only" comments. Just about all new Blackberries for VerizonWireless's network are worldphone capable. Maybe someone can explain why Apple wouldn't produce a VZW phone that's worldphone capable???

Separately, CDMA may be a dead-end technology but so is GSM, an even older technology. They are both going to go away at some point.

[John.B]

Originally Posted by melgross

If Verizon got the iPhone you think they would ramp the anti iPhone Ads up even further?

Sorry, I wasn't very clear. Verizon would ramp up the CDMA vs. GSM map ads even further. Something like:

Originally Posted by Hypothetical Verizon iPhone Ad

"Why run your iPhone on the sparse blue network when you can run it on the big red network?"

(FWIW, I get great AT&T coverage everywhere I need it and Verizon is a bit spotty near my house.)

[John.B]

Originally Posted by Hudson1

I don't get the whole "CDMA-only" comments. Just about all new Blackberries for VerizonWireless's network are worldphone capable. Maybe someone can explain why Apple wouldn't produce a VZW phone that's worldphone capable???

That's the rub. Qualcomm now has a radio chip out that will do both GSM (AT&T) and CDMA (Verizon) networks, but this story says that a Verizon iPhone would be a one-off CDMA-only iPhone. I don't buy it, neither do most of the people on this thread.

Originally Posted by Hudson1

Separately, CDMA may be a dead-end technology but so is GSM, and even older technology. They are both going to go away at some point.

BTW, GSM phones are worldwide, have the potential for a higher speed intermediate upgrade, and have a clear upgrade path to LTE.

[LouisTheXIV]

Wait a second.

World phones already exist--plenty of verizon blackberries already have CDMA/GSM compatibility. There is nothing stopping Apple from using that instead of a CDMA/GSM/LTE next year if it's not ready. 4G won't be large enough or big enough to be useful until at least 2011-12 when those chips would then be available. In the meantime a CDMA/GSM world configuration for all iPhones in 2010 is a no brainer...

[melgross]

Originally Posted by John.B

Sorry, I wasn't very clear. Verizon would ramp up the CDMA vs. GSM map ads even further. Something like:



(FWIW, I get great AT&T coverage everywhere I need it and Verizon is a bit spotty near my house.)

Ok. I was talking about their heavy handed anti iPhone commercials.

[iPOD-9000]

I think the analyst is right about a WCDMA/CDMA/LTE chipset timeframe. But for a "worldphone" that works on WCDMA/CDMA alone, doesn't the Qualcomm Gobi already do that?

You can get that chipset already as an embedded module for laptops, Xpress cards, and such. Other than a battery hit, I don't see what would stop someone from using this chipset in a mobile handheld (like an iPhone).

What would keep Apple from using that chipset in an iPhone for summer 2010? Nothing that I can see. What am I missing here?

[melgross]

Originally Posted by John.B

That's the rub. Qualcomm now has a radio chip out that will do both GSM (AT&T) and CDMA (Verizon) networks, but this story says that a Verizon iPhone would be a one-off CDMA-only iPhone. I don't buy it, neither do most of the people on this thread.


BTW, GSM phones are worldwide, have a higher speed intermediate step, and have an upgrade path to LTE.

Apparently, this is a new chip, and not fully tested. In order for Apple to use it in a phone, they would have to totally redesign the phone, and then send it in for FCC testing. Only after it passes could they send it in for manufacturing.

There are some other chips out there, but they're based on older tchnology, and use more power, and have less features.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by iPOD-9000

I think the analyst is right about a WCDMA/CDMA/LTE chipset timeframe. But for a "worldphone" that works on WCDMA/CDMA alone, doesn't the Qualcomm Gobi already do that?

You can get that chipset already as an embedded module for laptops, Xpress cards, and such. Other than a battery hit, I don't see what would stop someone from using this chipset in a mobile handheld (like an iPhone).

What would keep Apple from using that chipset in an iPhone for summer 2010? Nothing that I can see. What am I missing here?

It's brand new, and is just now coming out. Apple would have needed it a good 6 months ago for a June 2010 release.