Originally Posted by trumptman
If anything this article shows a troubling trend for Apple. Last year at the peak of interest, 56% said they were interested in the then new iPhone 3G. This year at the peak of interest, that same number is only 44%. Both times of year all the Apple buzz manages to crater RIM interest but it is stuck at the same 23% number. The lowering of Apple peak interest correlates very strongly to the increase in Palm interest.
I'd be worried.
First, this is old news. It was reported on at least 2 weeks ago as part of RBC Mike Abramsky's note, since RBC has been co-sponsoring this Changewave survey. Changewave is just now publishing its results to the broader public. It seems to me that this is market manipulation.
Second, as for the comment quoted above, when you take into account that 14.4% of their sample is now interested in buying a smartphone and couple that with the 44% for iPhone, you find that 6.3% of the total sample is interested in iPhone, which is the highest ever. Last year, the 56% iPhone is coupled with 10.5% smartphone interest for a total of 5.9% interested in iPhone (which was the previous high).
And one could argue that the increase in Palm corresponds to the decrease in RIM, and likely reflects the many people who would not switch from Sprint to AT&T, and/or would not give up a physical keyboard.
Also, in June 2008, there was a 3% increase in smartphone interest (from 7.4 to 10.5), which correlates nicely with the 3% increase in iPhone (from 2.6 to 5.9). In June 2009, there is a 3% increase in smartphone interest, and it again correlates with the 3% increase in iPhone (from 3.4 to 6.3). Clearly, iPhone is significant in moving people from feature phones to smartphones.
As an Apple shareholder, I'm not worried, though in a year or two, Apple might think about having major upgrades twice a year instead of once a year. The 2nd upgrade could be a major software upgrade instead of a new hardware version.