Nearly half of prospective smartphone buyers to choose iPhone - Page 2

I have about 16 GB of music in my library, and I know many people have a lot more (I consider my collection rather paltry). 32 GB is perfect for me, I have some free space so I can put a couple movies on there, download whatever apps I want and not have to worry about shuffling things around to make room (although I have enough movies on my mac to fill it and more if I wanted to). 16 GB wouldn't quite be enough.

Everyone I know who has an iphone has not bothered to upgrade due to the fact that they are waiting for the next device.
Sure speed wise its much faster, but nobody I know cares for games, and few are out yet that take advantage of the wizzy new processor, so the extra speed does not provide that wow factor.
The response I have had from existing 3g owners is, "hey the compass is pretty neat, when tom tom release an app i my ugrade, else I will wait for the next revision"

I agree, I'm sure most 3G owners are satisfied, the 3GS isn't enough of an advancement to pay $399/$499. I'm not getting the 3GS either. I believe the primary reason is the fact that most of us cannot get the full subsidized price.

That may all be true, but I hope you understand that you and those people you know are very very far onto the right edge of the bell curve.

Edit: in case you wanted a source: http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/...cle4144585.ece

The did a large academic study and found that the average iPod user had 1700 songs on their device. That works out to 10 GB at 6 MB per song, which judging by my collection, is a larger than average file size.

I'm guessing those people don't use their phones very heavily then. The speed upgrade speeds up EVERYTHING by a lot, not just games. While I agree that $399/$499 is a lot, when the price drops to $199 for the 16 GB I think a huge chunk of people decide that it's easily worth it. Your friends think the compass is neat but haven't mentioned the autofocus camera and video capability? And the smudge resistant screen? These people need to get a 3GS in their hands and THEN see what they say.

Why do I feel this is a "jump the shark" moment?

First, this is old news. It was reported on at least 2 weeks ago as part of RBC Mike Abramsky's note, since RBC has been co-sponsoring this Changewave survey. Changewave is just now publishing its results to the broader public. It seems to me that this is market manipulation.

Second, as for the comment quoted above, when you take into account that 14.4% of their sample is now interested in buying a smartphone and couple that with the 44% for iPhone, you find that 6.3% of the total sample is interested in iPhone, which is the highest ever. Last year, the 56% iPhone is coupled with 10.5% smartphone interest for a total of 5.9% interested in iPhone (which was the previous high).

And one could argue that the increase in Palm corresponds to the decrease in RIM, and likely reflects the many people who would not switch from Sprint to AT&T, and/or would not give up a physical keyboard.

Also, in June 2008, there was a 3% increase in smartphone interest (from 7.4 to 10.5), which correlates nicely with the 3% increase in iPhone (from 2.6 to 5.9). In June 2009, there is a 3% increase in smartphone interest, and it again correlates with the 3% increase in iPhone (from 3.4 to 6.3). Clearly, iPhone is significant in moving people from feature phones to smartphones.

As an Apple shareholder, I'm not worried, though in a year or two, Apple might think about having major upgrades twice a year instead of once a year. The 2nd upgrade could be a major software upgrade instead of a new hardware version.

I didn't believe your post in an earlier thread that you got an iPhone; thought you were pulling our legs ... but I guess i should believe you now.

Apple is still getting about $470 per 8GB 3G from AT&T; only $100 less than for the 16GB 3GS. (Source: AT&T announced that there was no material change to its financial projections when the $99 phone was announced.) Given the decreasing component costs for flash memory and processor, and the fact that it has fewer and older chips than the 3GS, I think margins are actually better on the 3G than the new 3GS.


The correlation is there as you can compare Apple's 2007 units (which was almost all US) and then AT&T's 2008 iPhone announcements with these US survey numbers.


Head to head against the iPhone 3GS, the Pre is already having trouble if recent reports are accurate. Unless they lower pricing, the Pre will have the same troubles on O2 and Movistar. Palm will get another crack with the EOS (whatever it is!) but can they beat Apple on pricing without dying on margins? Apple has the best supply chain, better or best pricing on smartphone components (due to volume including common iPod parts), and likely the best industry subsidies from AT&T (due to iPhone's proven ability to entice new subscribers).

But WOW, 1 in 4 or 25% of potential purchasers are holding out solely because Apple is partnering with AT&T! Again, WOW!

I don't know about AT&T with regards to my lack of purchasing an iPhone. Lord I do wish I can get one, however, the economy has crimped my income, and I can't commit to a new contract and double the amount of my cell phone fee, whereas, now I can quit without penalty from my current provider (T-Mobile) and only pay low 40's a month.

But I do want one.... droooollll.... best Homer Simpson voice... Hhmmmm.... iPhoonnnne...

Remember those 25% are the people who have held out for two years now. If you include all the people who did switch already for the iPhone, the percentage of iPhone-interested people who won't switch because of ATT probably falls below 5%.

Kasper - Can you check the server's IP logs for teckstud's account? I have reason to believe his account has been hacked.

It must be... what else could it be? Leaving lucid, well-thought-out, verifiable, on-the-field testing for more than five minutes!

*gulp* I might have to take a step back, tip my hat and actually say "Welcome aboard"??!!

If the sun is shining anywhere in NYC from all that rain, it must be right over teckstud.

Where's my kool-aid??!!

So did you finally decide too that having a magnetometer (compass) was actually a pretty cool idea???

That's so funny you should ask- I was showing it off to a friend who has the prior 3G iPhone. We were walking down a street in the East village and the way it was tracking our steps was wild. When the compass went to street level and showed us the building that we were standing in front of- he flipped! I think he's going to shell out the money earlier to upgrade than he was hoping too.
He also could not believe all the videos I shot of the fireworks over the Hudson on the 4th. They are pretty amazing- both in their detail and color saturation.

NO NO
Apple still gets full price of $500 or so, the balance is subsidized By you know who.

Well it might be if it was available world wide for that price

20% of the people who still after two years haven't ALREADY switched from Verizon to get the iPhone.

Yeah, I'd like that confirmation, because it would be a signal that it's time to buy some more AAPL....

It's the TechStud..
epiphany |iˈpifənē|
noun ( pl. -nies)
the manifestation of Christ to the Gentiles as represented by the Magi (Matthew 2:112).
the festival commemorating this on January 6.
a manifestation of a divine or supernatural being.
a moment of sudden revelation or insight.

Enz

The extra CPU was the wow factor tha convinced me to dip my toes in the iphone water. As a web browser it is now pretty much good enough and responsive enough that I haven't opened my laptop in a week. I've seen people even with 3g get frustrated at the speed. DOn't underestimate how much the extra speed affects the overall experience!

What about other files? Now that the iPhone has a passable camera for 'phone stills' and they are pushing video a lot more, the gigs will add up.

I am wildly optimistic about high quality games hitting the iPhone once some developers take advantage of the dock connector APIs and release a gaming dpad for the gamers among us... High quality games will take more and more space.

I am also hoping for a 64gig phone...

I'm still a happy user of the original 2g. I was close to getting the 3gs but decided to hold off for th next hardware revision. The thought of multicore was enought for me to decide it's worth the wait. Even without it, it will probably be time for it. Maybe a 64gig device? It will be an interesting wait.

I dont. I own one.

I'm saying others do.

And it's really even less than that - this measures those who are thinking about getting a smart phone so 25% say they aren't *thinking* about getting an iPhone because it isn't on their network - that's really meaningless outside of to say that Apple is missing an *opportunity* with 25% of the market - not a guarantee, simply an opportunity.

This is interesting because having been primed on the Touch (WiFi) I was used to faster speed already as it is known faster than the old 3G. Does anyone know if the 3GS is faster than the current Touch? It seems slightly faster to me than the Touch.
Again- Loving it. Buy more AAPL.

yeah, i think this study shows nothing really. I think the reason why the 3G spiked so much last year was because they opened the email app to MS Exchange server. Businesses and previous Palm/BB users had no need for the iPhone until that happened, since a good amount of those users are business driven.

I think the spike this year was for the added speed and time tested functionality of the OS. This spike could also be to do with businesses now adopting the iPhone after seeing it's successes; most businesses are pretty conservative when it comes to new technology. Also, it could be due to business contracts that were not currently up to expire at the time that the 3G came out.

The real test will be next year's sales figures at this time. If Apple wants another spike next year, they will have to make some major changes to the iPhone. Personally, i have the last year 3G model and i really don't see any reason to spend the extra cash for the 3Gs. Sure it's faster but the 3G is fast enough for me and the WiFi is plenty fast for me at home. However, there may be a spike next year due to people who have two-year contracts from the 3G, like myself.

Personally, I'd rather invest in a net book or the fantastic Apple version of that, which sounds like is in the works for next year sometime. My iPhone 3G is convenient for sitting on the couch but it's not a replacement for a laptop. Can't wait to see what Apple comes up with next year, especially since Google is throwing their hats in the ring.

Sounds like it is in fact faster for applications but not everything. I'm guessing it has to do with application speed rather than connectivity speed. If you play a lot of games on the iPhone, which IMO is silly (get the touch if you really want to play games and save your wallet the monthly charge IMO).

Here are a couple articles that demonstrates the speed tests:

http://toucharcade.com/2009/06/22/ip...aster-than-3g/

http://blackpixel.com/

http://gizmodo.com/5303999/iphone-3g...eal-difference

Yes, i know a lot of people on this forum hate "gizmodo" and think they are inacurate, but i think in many cases they are just reporting opinions like most major media companies do nowadays.

at least I sight sources, take it for what it's worth.

Sorry. I meant that generically.


I too came from an iPod touch. The network aspect aside, it is tangibly faster. Page rendering is much quicker. Of course you to deal with your carriers network but that is another story.

Perhaps. What we don't know is how much revenue sharing on the montly fee's Apple gets from AT&T.

We know they get something since for accounting purposes they classify iPhone revenue as subscription based (that's why the iPhone gets updates for free but the iPod Touch doesn't).

No, they are soon to be beleaguered

Yet another idiotic survey from ChangeWave --- all their surveys are skew because they only came from responses from ChangeWave members, who aren't the average population.

Just look at how the other ChangeWave survey results saying that AT&T has been consistently winning Verizon subscribers for the past 2 years after the original iphone was launched --- none of that was true. Verizon consistently beat AT&T's net adds every quarter for the last 2 years.

Nope. Apple only gets revenue sharing on the original iPhones (not 3G) that were sold without subsidy.

The iPhone revenue uses subscription accounting because Apple intends to give free updates (just like it does for AppleTV for which there is clearly no revenue sharing).

False. Over the last eight quarters, it's 4 for VZW and 4 for T, with T adding 14m net, and VZW adding 12.6m net over the 2 years. (This does not include any adds from buying up other companies, such as VZW's purchase of Alltel.)

What is true is that since iPhone's release in 2Q07, VZW's retail postpaid churn has risen from .85 to 1.14 (or 34%). Since iPhone3G, VZW's churn has been 1.03, 1.05, and 1.14. AT&T's comparable churn has decreased from 1.5 to 1.2 (or 20%) since iPhone was announced.

All these numbers can be found in the SEC filings or on their websites.

That is counting AT&T's net add numbers which includes the Tracfone net adds.

But the ChangeWave surveys specifically talk about how there were "massive" number of people switching to AT&T for the iphone (especially from Verizon). So since ChangeWave specifically talk about AT&T and the iphone --- we must take out the Tracfone numbers. Once we take out the Tracfone net adds --- Verizon has beaten AT&T in every single quarter after the original iphone was launched.

If you don't take the Tracfone out of the equation ---- then ChangeWave has to change their survey finding to Tracfone (instead of the iphone) helping AT&T to get massive number of people switching to AT&T.

appeal of lower costs on the unit itself and endless apps....what more can you ask for? (besides a better camera?)