The researcher is careful not to paint too dire a picture and insists that Microsoft should still be a very large contender if the prediction bears out. All the same, he maintains that much of the stock market has taken threats to Microsoft too lightly and that the company could see a slow, steady decline without a clear sign that it's learned its lesson.
"We believe that the [market] trend is not in the companys favor and that many quarters of ebbing tide lay ahead," he said.
A few things to outline about Microsoft's stock:
1- Microsoft can't be all things to everyone: it's enough that Microsoft be good and the prevailing OS (90%+) on computer desktops, web servers and portable computers. So, it's not really the OS for cell phones, embedded systems and cars. O.K., we can live with that, as monopolies are not good for innovation, prices or service;
2- Microsoft Windows and Office sales are impacted by the world recession and closely tied to the renewal of computers by companies which have now reduced their information technology budgets in an attempt to cope with reduced sales, profits and manpower, but everything will come back to normal as the world comes out of the current recession;
3- Stock analysts don't really know what they are talking about, as they can't predict anything and seldom analyse;
4- Microsoft is the largest Mac software developper outside of Apple;
5- Microsoft and Google are software companies which do not compete with Apple which is a hardware company refusing to license its OS systems, iLife and iWork software for sale and installation on computer hardware or cell phones not made by Apple.
As usual, this "stock analyst" dire predictions are just a tempest in a tea pot.