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post #121 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerseymac View Post


Steve Jobs was absolutely right. Blu Ray is nothing but a bag of hurt I totally brought upon myself.

My 1080p Pioneer KURO plasma disagrees with you. Blu-Ray is a bag of wonderous high-definition joy.

Apple should get with the times and start offering BD drives throughout their entire line of PCs.
post #122 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by brucep View Post

hmmm....
I think the old betamax crowd see's a final chance to live again here, Except apple already knows that the optical drives are dead just like matte screens and just like fire wire dead dead dead .

SO you can spend money on blu ray and in a few months or couple of years the whole industry will be phased out and replaced by USB 2 or USB 3 data drives . Your money is wasted .
I will never buy a disc again unless it's a transformer level movie.

My MOVIE GUY now gives me usb drives w/star trek on it.

I placed the file on my hard drive and MY MBP DVD player, QUICKTIME player > played the movie in perfect quality equal to an itunes HD movie down load or HULU hi-res mode.

A whole industry just died . We just can't see it yet . I wondered about the MBA for a long time. Now I get it . We will have in the near future little SD movie cards or little usb cards or multi movie or large ssd 128 g bricks.

So this whole blu-ray angst going on here is moot and silly . Blu-ray is already obsolete.

9

Your whole ill informed flame baiting troll post launched itself into mega comic status with your transformers comment. I'd rather remove my eye balls with a spoon that sully my Pioneer KURO with Michael Bay produced sewage, as would any fan of cinema.

As for BD, it's the highest quality format on the market by an EPIC amount, and I see no other formats around capable of challenging it. Where are these 50gb movie USB sticks you talk of? My local store doesn't sell them.

Downloading files that big might be an option for some (personally I have an uncapped 50mbit connection), but it certainly isn't for the vast majority of people.

BD is here to stay, like it or not. Personally I like it, long live BD. My KURO agrees.
post #123 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreyfus2 View Post

Well, I have the Pioneer LX 71, which is commonly considered to be one of the faster ones and even on that machine forward/rewind is almost unusable. It is really not fun at all. Another issue outside the US is of course that BD prices have not really adjusted here. Heroes Season 2 on BD is 70 EUR (100 USD) over here, the 720p version on iTunes is 29.99 and looks and sounds great (5.1).

You should start looking for cheaper places to shop, Heroes doesn't cost that much in Europe, in fact taking two seconds I found it for 47 EUR with free shipping. And it sounds great with the DTS HD Audio.

And I just looked on my Irish iTunes account, there are no TV Shows listed there, so that would make it a bit hard to get it there.

And the prices have dropped outside the US, you need to start looking.



Quote:
Originally Posted by dreyfus2 View Post

Absolutely. I have quite a few BDs that do not even look significantly better than upscaled widescreen DVDs, some look even grainier than the DVD. Fortunately I did not pay much for them, as I got 15 free BDs when buying the player.

The grain level is very different to the quality level.
post #124 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by brucep View Post

HULU is HD .


i think
9

hi res at least

And of course HULU isn't available in most of the world
post #125 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

I was using Hulu in a generic sense. For the average consumer free video streaming makes buying a $30 disc a less enticing proposition.

Or even using Netflix. $10 a month for unlimited streaming makes a $30 disc less enticing.

Depends on if your preferred title is new release or back catalog. Those two streaming services rarely offer new release movies. I think Netflix might have 15% of its titles for streaming.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

I'm talking about professional video cameras, not consumer. Most of Sony's professional cameras use HDCAM tapes or BR discs.

Panasonic's P2 system is very successful, its in fact the first Panasonic camera system that has been as successfully adopted across the industry as its been. I just recently worked with the AJ-HPX3000. A great camera.

I don't know much about the high end pro, but low end pro and consumer.

The P2 line is a good system, but the original module shape is already an obsolete standard and a major utility of choosing that module shape is now nullfied.

Quote:
Originally Posted by brucep View Post


If the blu ray Encoding is so good, fine tehn a little SQUARE storage card will do just as good as a disc.. NO BD player needed

Of course go ahead and buy and play blu ray and I hope apple accepts this format. I was just amazed that i got a star trek file from a storage card and dropped the file on my hard drive and THE DVD and QT players could play back the raw files . NO handbrake converting needed.

What this means is the overall price for movies will drop to about $7 or $9 dollars for a new movie and $3 to $5 for rentals. AND the bootleggers and their ilk will be out of business and the movie makers will still make a profit .

Don't assume that the price is going to go down like that just because the media is different. It's going to be a while when a "square card" is going to be comparable in price to a pressed BD. The price of manufacturing/replication is a very small portion of the retail price of a movie. In volume, DVDs cost less than $1 a piece to make & package, and I think BD is less than $2 a piece to press and pack.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wiggin View Post

Think of the attempts by the music industry to move to SuperAudio CDs (I think that's what they were called). They offered better sound quality than CDs, but they were quickly relegated to audiophiles only. For the general consumers, CDs were "good enough".

I'm not convinced that the extra resolution of SACD changed how good it sounds except for a minority within that market. Most of the audio issues with CD is the cooked dynamic range. As far as I understand, DVD-Audio and SACD don't use dynamic range compression (DRC). If they sold CDs without DRC, I bet that most SACD/DVD-A fans wouldn't notice the difference between that and their next generation audio disc. For everyone else, the cooked audio might sound better because it fits the music within the dynamic range limits of cheap audio gear.
post #126 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

While it would be great for Snow Leopard to offer Blu-ray support we are nearing GM for SL and there is still no AACS to even support 3rd-party drives running over USB or FW. The only evidence of Blu-ray support we have yet to see is Gracenotes supporting it within iTunes, and I dont think Apple has anything to do with that.

Plus the HDCP support they added a while ago
post #127 of 167
Blu-ray has region codes. You won't necessarily be able to take a disc from one part of the world and use in a player from another part of the world.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfanning View Post

And of course HULU isn't available in most of the world
post #128 of 167
[QUOTE=brucep;1451387]You don't have to wait . The usb/sd movie files are already here.[quote]

I guess the numerous movie sites I visit daily must have missed the birth of these USB/SD formats. I can only assume you're referring to illegally download content, whether by you yourself or by some guy on the street corner hocking copies of "Star Wors" and the latest "Harry Putter" film. I don't think that illegal downloads count as a format. I doubt the movie studios consider piracy a viable business model.

And regardless, those movies must look and sound like crap. A 16GB SD card is still $40 (legally purchased) and a 16GB is around $80. Either way, that's more expensive than a Blu-Ray movie even if you foolishly pay full retail for it.

Quote:
The question is my fine feathered friend is can we get raw blu ray files and how can we play them back . Already my dvd player at home is almost forgotten between hulu netflixs roku and playing raw file from my mac .

Three crap sources (Hulu, Netflix, Roku) if you want good picture and sound quality and one that generally goes back to illegal downloads (since you're clearly not buying Blu-Ray discs and ripping them yourself). Netflix is okay for a quick fix or a movie you really don't want to own (I watched Toy Soldiers, Daylight and Cliffhanger this past Friday via Netflix on my TiVo) but have a hankering to watch.

If your only argument is for illegal downloads, you don't have much of an argument at all.
post #129 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

Depends on if your preferred title is new release or back catalog. Those two streaming services rarely offer new release movies. I think Netflix might have 15% of its titles for streaming.

Of course studios will position Blu-ray as it's earliest post-theater release. Because they bring in the most revenue. I don't beleive the majority of the consumer market want to see movies that badly to buy $30 discs. Especially when they can wait a few of months for $10 disc, or rental, or HBO.

Quote:
The P2 line is a good system, but the original module shape is already an obsolete standard and a major utility of choosing that module shape is now nullfied.

Yes outside of P2 it's an obsolete modeule. Panasonic provides everything needed to simply and easily use P2 in todays production environment.
post #130 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Blu-ray has region codes. You won't necessarily be able to take a disc from one part of the world and use in a player from another part of the world.

Maybe, but region A is not just restricted to the USA, while HULU is. These streaming services are pretty restricted outside the US
post #131 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfanning View Post

You should start looking for cheaper places to shop, Heroes doesn't cost that much in Europe, in fact taking two seconds I found it for 47 EUR with free shipping. And it sounds great with the DTS HD Audio.

And I just looked on my Irish iTunes account, there are no TV Shows listed there, so that would make it a bit hard to get it there.

And the prices have dropped outside the US, you need to start looking.

Well, does not really help, as these "cheap" import versions do not have the German audio track (neither the UK, nor the US import) and some family members can't really watch the original version. The version with dubbing can't be found cheaper right now, and there is normally no DTS HD for the dubbed tracks anyhow.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfanning View Post

The grain level is very different to the quality level.

True. Just, the grain in a lot of BD movies is annoying me a lot more than slightly unsharp backgrounds in the 720p downloads or upscaled DVDs. But that is a matter of personal preferences I guess.
post #132 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by kotatsu View Post

Your whole ill informed flame baiting troll post launched itself into mega comic status with your transformers comment. I'd rather remove my eye balls with a spoon that sully my Pioneer KURO with Michael Bay produced sewage, as would any fan of cinema.

As for BD, it's the highest quality format on the market by an EPIC amount, and I see no other formats around capable of challenging it. Where are these 50gb movie USB sticks you talk of? My local store doesn't sell them.

Downloading files that big might be an option for some (personally I have an uncapped 50mbit connection), but it certainly isn't for the vast majority of people.

BD is here to stay, like it or not. Personally I like it, long live BD. My KURO agrees.

Who said DL files ?? A 5-10 g usb stick will do. And the mini players are not yet here but RIGHT NOW I can take a raw hd movie file and play it un converted back on my MBP/DVD /QT player in fabulous quality . RIGHT NOW your elephant dvd player has been pushed aside in histories' river of old obsolete toys.

BD may live but the discs it comes on are dead. You just don't know it yet . THE MBA was the opening salvo .

I just re watched transformers again and it rocks on my MBP 15"3,02GHZ. My point was not the movie but if your gonna collect an obsolete media then make sure its something that BD looks good with. Not some stuffy all talking round a wooden table four 3 hours about why < fill in blank > loves me kind of movie.

As for movies I have watched thousand upon thousands and I find brit snobs like you a bit silly. Which proves nothing ,to each his own ?

Your Pioneer KURO player soon will not be needed to play back blu-ray. The coming high quality movie players will be the size of a deck of cards. And insert a 10 g SD sized card with your movie selection on it. Maybe a JOHN Le CARRE flick.


If BD balks at this then HD WILL do it. OR sony who cares, So much money is on the table concerning media content that the fastest cheapest will be the one every-time . It is ALSO the only way to fight the pirates and still make money.
$40 dollar players
$7 dollar hd movie

As for usb drives heres a 128 g one
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...82E16820220406
I can hold 9 to 13 HD movies on it if not more.

Final point my limey friend is the technology is moving so fast and storage is dropping in price so quick that movie studio's can now sell there products at close to the same price as the bootleggers do and give the public very high quality experience . If the DVD player industry joins the beta max industry so be it . But tiny players <zune > are already here. And 36 months from now who knows.

You think that BD is special . It is only a restrictive coding made to force you to pay
High prices for the movies and the players.

As for your insults. Really now feel better ???
dude

9
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post #133 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Blu-ray has region codes. You won't necessarily be able to take a disc from one part of the world and use in a player from another part of the world.

Although fortunately most BDs are region free.
post #134 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by brucep View Post

As for usb drives heres a 128 g one
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...82E16820220406
I can hold 9 to 13 HD movies on it if not more.

I don't see why you think switching to solid state storage is going to reduce movie prices by itself, it's based on bad information and bad assumptions.

You complain about the price of movies, but you link to a device that costs $33-44 a movie just to store the movie. I don't see how that helps your argument. A BD doesn't cost $20 to press and package, it's about $2 or less. The rest goes to other expenses and to recoup the movie production expense.
post #135 of 167
[QUOTE=caliminius;1451511][QUOTE=brucep;1451387]You don't have to wait . The usb/sd movie files are already here.
Quote:

I guess the numerous movie sites I visit daily must have missed the birth of these USB/SD formats. I can only assume you're referring to illegally download content, whether by you yourself or by some guy on the street corner hocking copies of "Star Wors" and the latest "Harry Putter" film. I don't think that illegal downloads count as a format. I doubt the movie studios consider piracy a viable business model.

And regardless, those movies must look and sound like crap. A 16GB SD card is still $40 (legally purchased) and a 16GB is around $80. Either way, that's more expensive than a Blu-Ray movie even if you foolishly pay full retail for it.



Three crap sources (Hulu, Netflix, Roku) if you want good picture and sound quality and one that generally goes back to illegal downloads (since you're clearly not buying Blu-Ray discs and ripping them yourself). Netflix is okay for a quick fix or a movie you really don't want to own (I watched Toy Soldiers, Daylight and Cliffhanger this past Friday via Netflix on my TiVo) but have a hankering to watch.

If your only argument is for illegal downloads, you don't have much of an argument at all.


NO NO NO
I own about 300 legal dvd's
and about 1200 cd's. A File on a usb drive was given to me containing a picture perfect illegal copy of star wars. I put it on my hard drive. Opened my DVD player and it played it un converted. GREAT quality I will buy the real extended copy when it comes out .

This is today and i agree with most of what you say >>>> but i saw the future, Net flix will only get better and netflix roku player give's you excellant quality on my 34"1080p .
aquos.

HULU HI-RES looks great on my MBP 15 .Maybe it looks bad on the tv i don't know .

BUT i do know that discs are dead and so are disc players. Digital media files need not be confined to exspensive players and discs .Soon THE PRICE FOR USB STICKS AND SD cards will drop like all the other kinds of storage have .

Maybe 3 yrs maybe 5 yrs But the landscape will be vastly changed. MBA showed me that.

The market demands that the pirates become nullified and cheap media will do that .

9

Or maybe i never awoke from my dream last night .
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post #136 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

I don't see why you think switching to solid state storage is going to reduce movie prices by itself, it's based on bad information and bad assumptions.

You complain about the price of movies, but you link to a device that costs $33-44 a movie just to store the movie. I don't see how that helps your argument. A BD doesn't cost $20 to press and package, it's about $2 or less. The rest goes to other expenses and to recoup the movie production expense.

Dear jeff i am not complaining about movie prices . 3.99 itunes rental is fine for me . $25 dollat blockbuster extended versions are fine for me . I was talking about the future . And the guy asked about where is the usb storage and i linked him . Its $300 now jeff How cheap will it be in 3 yrs ?? And Movie studio's lose billions to the pirates so if they could offer a $7 dollar HD movie combined with a cheap digital player that would kill the shitty quality of most bootlegged movies . The disc will be dead soon, Much better stuff is coming

Look who really knows anything ?? I am just predicting stuff by the market trends as i see them .

It is a way to kill the pirates off for ever. And i hope we can re visit this next year and i will bump this topic back up .

peace
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post #137 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by brucep View Post

Dear jeff i am not complaining about movie prices . 3.99 itunes rental is fine for me . $25 dollat blockbuster extended versions are fine for me . I was talking about the future . And the guy asked about where is the usb storage and i linked him . Its $300 now jeff How cheap will it be in 3 yrs ?? And Movie studio's lose billions to the pirates so if they could offer a $7 dollar HD movie combined with a cheap digital player that would kill the shitty quality of most bootlegged movies . The disc will be dead soon, Much better stuff is coming

Look who really knows anything ?? I am just predicting stuff by the market trends as i see them .

It is a way to kill the pirates off for ever. And i hope we can re visit this next year and i will bump this topic back up .

OK. You may well be right, but it sounded like you were suggesting that the cheap media meant that movies would automatically be priced lower. In a way, movies are already cheaper, there are a glut of movies at $10 a DVD. Just not HD yet, though some BD hollywood movies can be found on sale at $10 at Sam's Club and Walmart. If you don't have to buy the new releases, you can usually find a decent movie pretty cheap.
post #138 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreyfus2 View Post

Well, does not really help, as these "cheap" import versions do not have the German audio track (neither the UK, nor the US import) and some family members can't really watch the original version. The version with dubbing can't be found cheaper right now, and there is normally no DTS HD for the dubbed tracks anyhow.

You have me there...


Quote:
Originally Posted by dreyfus2 View Post

True. Just, the grain in a lot of BD movies is annoying me a lot more than slightly unsharp backgrounds in the 720p downloads or upscaled DVDs. But that is a matter of personal preferences I guess.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Film_grain
Maybe those 720p downloads contain a little too much DNR on them?
post #139 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

OK. You may well be right, but it sounded like you were suggesting that the cheap media meant that movies would automatically be priced lower. In a way, movies are already cheaper, there are a glut of movies at $10 a DVD. Just not HD yet, though some BD hollywood movies can be found on sale at $10 at Sam's Club and Walmart. If you don't have to buy the new releases, you can usually find a decent movie pretty cheap.

SO jeff you can see the trending. Why buy $5 bad bootleg when you can buy a 10 dollar top version. TIME AND NEW TECH advances will make movies cheaper and movie studio's will sell many more copies to for a pure profit level. The cheap media will force a showdown between the public and the retailers. I have a feeling itunes is about to get very large in the coming quarters.
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post #140 of 167
The $5 bootleg doesn't compete directly with the DVD. People by the bootleg when the movie is in the theater.

Quote:
Originally Posted by brucep View Post

SO jeff you can see the trending. Why buy $5 bad bootleg when you can buy a 10 dollar top version.
post #141 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

The $5 bootleg doesn't compete directly with the DVD. People by the bootleg when the movie is in the theater.

Not really there are guys who make nice covers and bring Lets say A triple steve mcqueen disc
with 3 movies with steve in them
or maybe a season of nevada smith with steve mcqueen
3 disc for 10 bucks > old movie quality is very good .
new movie quality is iffy at best unless its a screener.

Everyone would rather buy a nice real dvd from the true source. Look if hulu can show thousands of old movies for free <<advertising > and netflix has a instant play movie feature thru its roku box or instant play thru your .mac/p,c FOR FREE ...ADD the thousands of TV shows also available <<<Dead like me was a great show >

i THINK the movie studios can sell and rent much cheaper and they would get millions and millons of DL every week

They are greedy in one area and free in another ? go figure .

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post #142 of 167
Next time I see the neighborhood bootleg guy, I know he will have Transformers and Harry Potter. I'll have to ask if he has any Steve McQueen movies. My guess though is that he will have no idea who Steve McQueen is (or was).


Quote:
Originally Posted by brucep View Post

Not really there are guys who make nice covers and bring Lets say A triple steve mcqueen disc
with 3 movies with steve in them
or maybe a season of nevada smith with steve mcqueen
3 disc for 10 bucks > old movie quality is very good .
new movie quality is iffy at best unless its a screener.
post #143 of 167
I work in retail and the locale I work at recently exxpanded. The video section with DVDs and Blu-Ray discs is positively massive.

Just because there are alternatives to optical discs does not mean consumers will turn their backs on a format that they are comfortable with. I think that there is a large enough audience growing in absolute numbers that more than one format will be supported at viable levels. Everybody isn't going to access movie files via let's say flash drives any more than we'll wake up one morning to find the entire driving population in North America has a Toyota Corolla in the driveway.

Certainly it's a mystery why it is that some seem intent on the entire world embracing whatever technology they favour. Blu-Ray isn't going to be the main means of sharing large digital files. It is going to be one of a number of technologies that will be significant enough that Apple can not ignore it.
post #144 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Next time I see the neighborhood bootleg guy, I know he will have Transformers and Harry Potter. I'll have to ask if he has any Steve McQueen movies. My guess though is that he will have no idea who Steve McQueen is (or was).

Tell it loud
Tell it proud
all about cool hand luke or bullet and THE GREAT ESCAPE

since i tunes rentals are so cheap i am a gone good guy
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post #145 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carmissimo View Post

I work in retail and the locale I work at recently exxpanded. The video section with DVDs and Blu-Ray discs is positively massive.

You have to take into account that you are seeing the people who buy DVD, you don' see the people who don't.

Also your retail store is enjoying a time when we have fewer media retail stores than we had twenty years ago.

Quote:
Just because there are alternatives to optical discs does not mean consumers will turn their backs on a format that they are comfortable with.

I agree. People are not going to suddenly stop using optical media tommorow. But sales clearly show optical media is not a growing market. It's reached it's peak and will not grow any further. Optical media likely has another 10 years, but it will slowly fade away. Nothing lasts.

If you were to go back to the 70's and tell audiophiles most people would not be buying vinyl records in 10 years, they would have told you you were crazy.

Quote:
Blu-Ray isn't going to be the main means of sharing large digital files. It is going to be one of a number of technologies that will be significant enough that Apple can not ignore it.

If you look at it objectively, Blu-ray offers Apple what they don't want, more DRM. While not really offering any great advantage to the end user. You don't need Blu-ray to watch high quality video on a computer. Hard Drives and USB flash drives offer larger/faster storage at a fraction of the price of Blu-ray.
post #146 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Right and that's why an SD slot finally- mid 2009?

Don't forget copy and paste

Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

You don't need Blu-ray to watch high quality video on a computer.

True but I'd like to store data on Blu. 48GB. The cloud and disks aren't safe. And they're slow.
post #147 of 167
..oops
post #148 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by brucep View Post

Who said DL files ?? A 5-10 g usb stick will do. And the mini players are not yet here but RIGHT NOW I can take a raw hd movie file and play it un converted back on my MBP/DVD /QT player in fabulous quality . RIGHT NOW your elephant dvd player has been pushed aside in histories' river of old obsolete toys.

BD may live but the discs it comes on are dead. You just don't know it yet . THE MBA was the opening salvo .

I don't understand why you seem to think movies will come on USB sticks. Does a BD take up too much shelf space? I can't say I've ever had that problem. The only reason to change from BD would be to boost quality even further, but until 100"+ displays are common place that would really be a waste of time. BD is already stunning quality and much beyond that is diminishing returns.

The way I see it downloads are the FUTURE, as in, 10 years in the future. Until then BD will reign as the sole HD physical format and I don't have a problem with that. Maybe you should try watching a few of those little shiny discs on a good HDTV and you'll change your mind. The picture and sound quality is out of this world.
post #149 of 167
Blu-ray unable to halt DVD sales slump. Despite four-fold increase in BD spend to $482m, and strong video sales in China, India and Russia, Screen Digest predicts only modest growth in 2010

http://www.screendigest.com/press/re...2009/view.html
post #150 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Blu-ray players have now approached $200 with features that would have cost 3X as much 2 years ago. Blu-ray will make major penetration this year. Expect friends and family to buy now everytime they upgrade a DVD player to their new HDMI ready flat screen TVs. 'The future is Blu."

You just cannot download or stream the quality of a Blu-Ray film. It is not practical. I watch HD movies on ATT U-verse, and it is indeed very nice. No way it is anywhere close to Blu-Ray quality! I plan on getting a home theater system centered around Blu-Ray.
post #151 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

You have to take into account that you are seeing the people who buy DVD, you don' see the people who don't.

Also your retail store is enjoying a time when we have fewer media retail stores than we had twenty years ago.



I agree. People are not going to suddenly stop using optical media tommorow. But sales clearly show optical media is not a growing market. It's reached it's peak and will not grow any further. Optical media likely has another 10 years, but it will slowly fade away. Nothing lasts.

If you were to go back to the 70's and tell audiophiles most people would not be buying vinyl records in 10 years, they would have told you you were crazy.



If you look at it objectively, Blu-ray offers Apple what they don't want, more DRM. While not really offering any great advantage to the end user. You don't need Blu-ray to watch high quality video on a computer. Hard Drives and USB flash drives offer larger/faster storage at a fraction of the price of Blu-ray.


As a result of a growing population, even if the percentage of movie sales that are purchased via optical media declines, that doesn't necessarily translate to a drop in the volume of said media that is sold. If the economies of scale are such that the number of DVDs purchased three or fours years ago allows studios to make money, then why would a similar volume, albeit representing a smaller piece of the overall pie, represent a problem. So to me that implies that optical media isn't going to disappear any time soon. As such, Apple simply can't ignore that. Also, in terms of using optical storage with the capacity of Blu-Ray with a computer system, I see that as something that will be of value. Blu-Ray isn't just about getting access to the latest Hollywood fare. It represents a needed leap to accommodate the needs of consumers in the age of HD video. I want a physical medium that everyone can relate to. I don't want someone who, for instance, doesn't own a computer (believe it or not such people do exist) to be denied the chance to have a format in their hands that they can easily use. Blu-Ray doesn't require much technical savvy to use. Put the disc in a player like you do a DVD and hit play. So if I make a video that I want to share with a family member, an optical disc makes sense. It's also the case that if you want to give that person a permanent copy, an optical disc makes sense. In short, I see the likelihood of Blu-Ray players winding up in more homes than I do SD readers. Right now I'd say that I can't think of a single person I know who doesn't have a DVD player but, as I said, folks who don't have a computer, those I do know.

In Apple's defence, Blu-Ray is still a long way from taking over from DVD. But people who simply would never think to buy a computer will, in time, wind up with a Blu-Ray player. And unlike some, I'm not comfortable with the notion of trusting many of my files to a electronic device exclusively. When possible, I like to back up with optical media and DVD just doesn't cut it any more with the massive files we deal with now.

I liken the situation re Blu-Ray and competing means of storing data to what happened to radio when television came along. Radio is still with us. Television also didn't bring about the demise of the movie theatre. Yes, it's true, VCRs pretty much wiped out drive-ins but I think assuming no one will be using optical media 10 years from now is a mistake. I'm not saying that's impossible but on the other hand, it's not accurate to claim that all technologies disappear when other options gain traction. Think of it as an expansion of options which is a good thing, I think.
post #152 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abster2core View Post

Blu-ray unable to halt DVD sales slump. Despite four-fold increase in BD spend to $482m, and strong video sales in China, India and Russia, Screen Digest predicts only modest growth in 2010

http://www.screendigest.com/press/re...2009/view.html

The headline writer, as usual, kind of misrepresented what was said. The quote in the story attributed to a Screen Digest analyst is as follows, "However, despite consumers' interest in the high definition format and demand for packaged media, the current challenging economic climate means that we don't expect BD to be driving even minimal sector growth until 2010."

I don't see any prediction to the effect that growth in 2010 will be modest. Rather, the analyst is saying that whatever growth will be experienced, modest or otherwise, will not be happening in 2009 because people are worried about the economy and hence reluctant to spend.

To simplify for the heading, someone projected a prediction onto said analyst which that person didn't provide. Happens all the time which is why you have to be careful not to come to any conclusions based on headings and read the story itself, preferably start to finish.
post #153 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carmissimo View Post

As a result of a growing population, even if the percentage of movie sales that are purchased via optical media declines, that doesn't necessarily translate to a drop in the volume of said media that is sold. If the economies of scale are such that the number of DVDs purchased three or fours years ago allows studios to make money, then why would a similar volume, albeit representing a smaller piece of the overall pie, represent a problem. So to me that implies that optical media isn't going to disappear any time soon. As such, Apple simply can't ignore that.

You are right media consumption is growing. The problem for any one format is that there are many more ways to consume media than there have ever been before.

Business is about growth, business is not about keeping the status quo. If you stagnate in business you will eventually be out of business. That is how the studios are looking at the situation. Optical media sales are stagnant.

Along with that there are many other media distributors that are competing with optical media for consumer attention. They will continue to develop new ways to gain as large an audience as they can.

Its only inevitable that other forms of media distribution will become good enough, cheap enough, and convenient enough to make optical media less desirable to use.


Quote:
Also, in terms of using optical storage with the capacity of Blu-Ray with a computer system, I see that as something that will be of value. In short, I see the likelihood of Blu-Ray players winding up in more homes than I do SD readers. Right now I'd say that I can't think of a single person I know who doesn't have a DVD player but, as I said, folks who don't have a computer, those I do know.

50GB Blu-ray disc, $12.50 - $.25 per gigabyte
500GB Hard Data Drive, $90 - $.18 per gigabyte

I went to look for current prices of BR discs, they have come down a lot. It used to be as much as $22 for a 50GB BR disc. Price had to come down because they aren't selling well.

The HDD is preferable for many reasons. Ten times more storage, cheaper per GB, faster data rate, rewritable, you can plug a hard drive into any properly formated computer. The far majority of the installed computer base cannot support Blu-ray.

If they'd gotten Blu-ray out back in 2004, it would have been more successful. It would have been riding the success of DVD, it could have been the first solution for wide HD distribution. It would have offered a more affordable storage solution, back then a 500GB Hard Drive cost around $800.

SD is already far more ubiquitous than Blu-ray. The hundreds of millions of people who own point and shoot cameras use SD cards.

People who don't own computers cannot use Blu-ray for data storage either.

Quote:
I liken the situation re Blu-Ray and competing means of storing data to what happened to radio when television came along. Radio is still with us. Television also didn't bring about the demise of the movie theatre. Yes, it's true, VCRs pretty much wiped out drive-ins but I think assuming no one will be using optical media 10 years from now is a mistake. I'm not saying that's impossible but on the other hand, it's not accurate to claim that all technologies disappear when other options gain traction. Think of it as an expansion of options which is a good thing, I think.

These analogies you make aren't equal they are entirely different situations. Radio, movies, and television all adjusted to give something unique that the other could not offer. People primarily listen to radio in their cars. Movie theaters still work because few people can have a 40-60 foot screen in their house.

Storage media always change. I'm not sure why you expect things to freeze with optical disc.

Reel to reel audio tape, vinyl records, 8 tracks, cassette tape, compact disc, digital file.

35mm film, Ampex Quad video tape, Beta Max, VHS, DVD, Blu-ray, digital file

Floppy disc, 3/4" floppy disc, compact disc, DVD, Hard Data Drive, Solid State Drive, Cloud Computing
post #154 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by kotatsu View Post

I don't understand why you seem to think movies will come on USB sticks. Does a BD take up too much shelf space?

Enough . I only predict that media storage will be so cheap and so large that it will push dvd players to the back waters . I have about 300 dvd discs at home or more . It does take up room . But much smaller that VHS tapes .

BD/HD will live in digital form .

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post #155 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

You are right media consumption is growing. The problem for any one format is that there are many more ways to consume media than there have ever been before.

Business is about growth, business is not about keeping the status quo. If you stagnate in business you will eventually be out of business. That is how the studios are looking at the situation. Optical media sales are stagnant.

50GB Blu-ray disc, $12.50 - $.25 per gigabyte
500GB Hard Data Drive, $90 - $.18 per gigabyte

SD is already far more ubiquitous than Blu-ray. The hundreds of millions of people who own point and shoot cameras use SD cards.

People who don't own computers cannot use Blu-ray for data storage either.



These analogies you make aren't equal they are entirely different situations. Radio, movies, and television all adjusted to give something unique that the other could not offer. People primarily listen to radio in their cars. Movie theaters still work because few people can have a 40-60 foot screen in their house.

It's not just about growth. It's mainly about a viable business model. If Ferrari can only make a handful of cars, do they not bother because they can't outsell Ford? Clearly there is money to be made in building an exotic sports car and hence somebody is doing it. If millions of Blu-Ray discs are sold each year and doing so makes money, it will happen. If studios don't convince as many people to replace their DVDs with the same title in Blu-Ray as they did back when we transitioned from VHS to DVD, that's too bad for the studios but I hardly think they'll turn their backs on Blu-Ray as a result. They'll adjust their expectations and keep on cranking the Blu-Rays out as long as it makes them a profit, however modest. Besides, whatever way movies are distributed, legally of course, the studios make money and they stay in business. If Blu-Rays represent one of many means by which they can make money, it's still going to be a revenue source and something they will continue to produce.

In regards to the cost factor, I hope you realize that soon enough Blu-Ray blank media will be dirt cheap. Besides, if I want to give one home movie to a relative, do you really think it's practical to put that movie on a hard drive and let them keep the hard drive? Clearly for a one-off situation a hard drive is overkill, not to mention ridiculously expensive. I'd rather burn the movie onto a $1 Blu-Ray disc (they will eventually be that cheap).

In regards to SDs being so common, how many of the people who have SD-based cameras have computers to use with them? I'd say quite a few people head down to their local film processing joint, get on a kiosk and produce prints directly off the SD, no home computer involved. Also, if you're trying to watch true HD, not just any computer will do. Processing HD of Blu-Ray grade is a very demanding task that requires higher grade equipment.

Also, I think you're missing the point when saying people without computers can't use Blu-Ray disks for storage. The point is, there are uses for optical media and ones for hard drives. They are used for different things. You can't compare the Blu Ray vs. SD vs. hard drive vs. download scenario as if there has to be only one solution that everybody has to embrace. This isn't a case of CDs replacing LPs or DVDs replacing VHS tapes. This is a case of consumers being presented with a variety of options, each with their own set of strengths and weaknesses.

By the way, I suspect you're quite wrong in assuming radio is seldom listened to away from the car. You need to keep in mind that you do not represent the way that humanity uses technology any more than I or anyone else does. There are numerous technologies available to us and what's available is growing by the day. My argument is that there's room enough for assorted technologies and not just what you or I think has to be the way to go.

I can only guess that Blu-Ray will be a part of the landscape for quite some time. It will not be what DVD was, exactly, but it's not going to disappear in the next three or four years either.
post #156 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Storage media always change. I'm not sure why you expect things to freeze with optical disc.

Reel to reel audio tape, vinyl records, 8 tracks, cassette tape, compact disc, digital file.

35mm film, Ampex Quad video tape, Beta Max, VHS, DVD, Blu-ray, digital file

Floppy disc, 3/4" floppy disc, compact disc, DVD, Hard Data Drive, Solid State Drive, Cloud Computing

Storage media will change if there is a good reason to. When going from VHS to DVD, I got better picture quality, media that didn't degrade over time, and it was cheaper (at least for a while with online stores). So what am I getting by going from DVD to another storage media? Better picture. Which media type? Well, Blu-ray lets me play all the DVD's which I already own. So by not having to buy the movies I already own, Blu-ray is the cheaper one for me.

In the future, our kids may not have any DVD's. Then the change for them would be much easier because they won't have to re-buy their movies. By then, maybe we will have addressed the bandwidth issue too.
post #157 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carmissimo View Post

It's not just about growth. It's mainly about a viable business model. If Ferrari can only make a handful of cars, do they not bother because they can't outsell Ford?

Television and film studios are not Ferrari, they are Ford. Media is a commodity, not premium performance product. Studios are owned by publicly traded conglomerates and they are expected to grow. That is their business model.


Quote:
If millions of Blu-Ray discs are sold each year and doing so makes money, it will happen. If studios don't convince as many people to replace their DVDs with the same title in Blu-Ray as they did back when we transitioned from VHS to DVD, that's too bad for the studios but I hardly think they'll turn their backs on Blu-Ray as a result. They'll adjust their expectations and keep on cranking the Blu-Rays out as long as it makes them a profit, however modest.

I don't disagree. Studios are going to make Blu-ray for a while. My point is that their loyalty will go with what attracts the largest audience and what sells the most.

Quote:
In regards to the cost factor, I hope you realize that soon enough Blu-Ray blank media will be dirt cheap. Besides, if I want to give one home movie to a relative, do you really think it's practical to put that movie on a hard drive and let them keep the hard drive? Clearly for a one-off situation a hard drive is overkill, not to mention ridiculously expensive. I'd rather burn the movie onto a $1 Blu-Ray disc (they will eventually be that cheap).

You are mixing the argument. I'm strictly talking about using Blu-ray for data storage. Taking a movie to someones house is a different matter.

Yes the cost is going down. Still hard drives offer many other advantages as storage over optical media.

Quote:
In regards to SDs being so common, how many of the people who have SD-based cameras have computers to use with them? I'd say quite a few people head down to their local film processing joint, get on a kiosk and produce prints directly off the SD, no home computer involved. Also, if you're trying to watch true HD, not just any computer will do. Processing HD of Blu-Ray grade is a very demanding task that requires higher grade equipment.

I'm not arguing how people use SD cards. My point is that hundreds of millions of people already use them.

The vast majority of people don't care about watching the best 1080 HD. As long as the picture looks reasonably good, most peoe are satisfied.

Quote:
Also, I think you're missing the point when saying people without computers can't use Blu-Ray disks for storage. The point is, there are uses for optical media and ones for hard drives. They are used for different things. You can't compare the Blu Ray vs. SD vs. hard drive vs. download scenario as if there has to be only one solution that everybody has to embrace. This isn't a case of CDs replacing LPs or DVDs replacing VHS tapes. This is a case of consumers being presented with a variety of options, each with their own set of strengths and weaknesses.

The reason you don't like the comparison is because it clearly is not in favor of optical media. Yes the different forms of storage have different advantages and different uses. But it's common for one type to take away from the other.

CD's replaced LP's because people stopped buying LP's. DVD replaced VHS because people stopped buying VHS. People were given a choice. It's no different from how people can choose Blu-ray or not.

Quote:
By the way, I suspect you're quite wrong in assuming radio is seldom listened to away from the car. You need to keep in mind that you do not represent the way that humanity uses technology any more than I or anyone else does.

No I'm not wrong. Radio's prime hours are called radio drive time. Radio drive time is around 7AM to 10AM in the morning when people are driving to work. And 5PM to 8PM in the evening when people are driving home. This information is easily available, you can look it up.
post #158 of 167
Going with your point what motivation is there to change from DVD to BR? BR is not the leap in quality that DVD was from VHS.

I cannot agree with tour assertion BR is cheap it's among the most expensive ways to watch a movie.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pt123 View Post

Storage media will change if there is a good reason to. When going from VHS to DVD, I got better picture quality, media that didn't degrade over time, and it was cheaper (at least for a while with online stores). So what am I getting by going from DVD to another storage media? Better picture. Which media type? Well, Blu-ray lets me play all the DVD's which I already own. So by not having to buy the movies I already own, Blu-ray is the cheaper one for me.
post #159 of 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Going with your point what motivation is there to change from DVD to BR? BR is not the leap in quality that DVD was from VHS.

I cannot agree with tour assertion BR is cheap it's among the most expensive ways to watch a movie.

It is a cheaper overall solution when factoring in all the DVD's I already have. With a Blu-ray player, I get use of all my existing DVD movies. With any other type of media storage without the disc player, I would have to pay to start my movie collection.
post #160 of 167
It's one solution, I would not consider it the cheapest.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pt123 View Post

It is a cheaper overall solution when factoring in all the DVD's I already have. With a Blu-ray player, I get use of all my existing DVD movies. With any other type of media storage without the disc player, I would have to pay to start my movie collection.
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