Originally Posted by TenoBell
Its true but you know Apple.
Unfortunately, I do.
I agree few people would buy a $30-$40 movie. What differentiates this idea is that you don't need a stand alone player. You can simply stick the card into a TV or computer and have glorious 1080P and surround sound.
Early adopters would be into this at that price point. As the price comes down, it would filter to the masses. But electronics manufacturers won't do this because it risks destroying their current business model.
I'd actually like to believe it, but I'm finding it difficult.
A couple of years after the personal computer first came out I was telling people that in the future we would be buying music on memory cards instead of LPs.
But that was also before the CD came out. That changed everything.
Just like bubble memory was supposed to kill the HDD, it never happened.
I think the timing is impossible.
I don't see the industry moving to a format that will have just a handful of years of life.
I think people would have no problem moving on from optical players if given a choice.
I barely use the optical player in my Mac anymore. Most of the software on my computer has been downloaded from the developers website. The last third party application I recall installing from a disc was MS Office and that was about four years ago.
Most of the media I watch is from cable, video on demand, Hulu, iTunes, or Netflix streaming. A growing number of my friends are watching movies through torrents. But I don't participate in that myself.
Several of my gaming friends are more into playing Xbox or Playstation online. You really don't even need the optical disc for that, even though you still have to buy it to play the game online.
The electronics industry would charge a premium for this to make up for the loss in media player sales.
$30-$40 would not be that way forever, the price would come down as the price for BR has come down.
If the price was $20 to $25 it might work. But except for a very small number, I just don't see those prices as being desirable. as I said, players will be $50 in a couple of years.
We'll be getting B_R recorders in out computers for $30, just like we have DVD recorders now. Recordable disks will be cheap, and no one will go back.
We'll see 9.5mm recorders for laptops, and they will be everywhere.
I can't see anything else happening.
Optical has too much life left.
I read an article where they were saying that the format can even hold a 4k movie on a double layer disk with no changes.
IBM has already produced experimental recorders and disks that have 200GB. This is also the same format.
It's just beginning.
Its like my Grandmother. She lives in a retirement home and the building is wired for broadband. She has computer hooked up to broadband, but she rarely ever uses it.
But she doesn't fall under that term "active users" you said the survey found. She doesn't count basically.
On the other hand, I have several friends who are still on dial-up. One even has sold over 750 items on e-bay, and has bought about the same number.
But again, most "broadband" in use is 1 Mb/s or less, totally unusable for this purpose.
When 50% of the public has 20Mb/s then we can talk about this.