or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Other Discussion › AppleOutsider › PoliticalOutsider › 2010 Elections: GOP to lose even more ground
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

2010 Elections: GOP to lose even more ground

post #1 of 158
Thread Starter 
Why? Because despite of the blue dogs Obama and the democrats in house and congress will be credited with the following:

- putting US back on the map and leading the world in international cooperation in several fronts including financial balance and climate change
- reforming healthcare with a strong bill including the public option - this will turn out to be a tremendous boost for american economy and overall quality of life. This will, over time, cause the US to once more edge out in global competitiveness as it will be able to retain talent and attract new talent while increasing productivity of residents.
- reforming regulation of US economy which will show indications of stabilizing the country in the long run leading to prosperity
- leading groundbreaking laws on capping carbon emissions, improving fuel economy and overall reduction of carbon footprint

Meanwhile the GOP will be credited with the following:

- opposing each one of those initiatives taken by Obama
- moving away from the center and becoming more and more inseparable from the lunatic fringe elements (letting Rush, Beck and company run the show will backfire)

The populous will realize this. Even though 30% of americans have no sense of reality and will still vote republican, their losses will deepen more and more. What is now roughly a 60% democratic majority will become closer to a 70% majority.

In time the GOP will recover. But first it needs to isolate and purge all the fringe elements, which will take a long time.
post #2 of 158
I prefer this one instead because it wasn't generated off delusional self-reinforcing narratives.

Quote:
Under the heading, "Republicans not in a position to retake the House (yet)," Chris Bowers estimates that the Democrats have a 41.2%-37.7% lead in recent generic House polling. Bowers writes, "Democrats are, after all, still winning."

But it's not so simple. In research published a couple years ago, Joe Bafumi, Bob Erikson, and Chris Wlezien found that, yes, generic party ballots are highly predictive of House voting--especially in the month or two before the election-but that early polling can be improved by adjusting for political conditions. In particular, the out-party consistently outperforms the generic polls.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply
post #3 of 158
Thread Starter 

Nope. I prefer my predictions because they take into account present and future events and not merely the current state.
post #4 of 158
What does it matter? It's like arguing about pennies, while truckloads of cash are whizzing by, ignored. The perception of division between the two major parties is largely distraction. Both parties are still owned by, and answer to the same people (who don't necessarily reside in, or are even citizens of the United States). Nothing will change for the better for the American people, whether conservative, centrist or liberal, until the basic electoral structure is revised to bring it from the 19th to the 21st century. And of course, the only people who can do anything about that are the lawmakers in DC whose political careers are maintained by the very system that gets them elected and remain incumbent, sometimes for decades.
"We've never made the case, or argued the case that somehow Osama bin Laden was directly involved in 9/11. That evidence has never been forthcoming". VP Cheney, 3/29/2006. Interview by Tony Snow
Reply
"We've never made the case, or argued the case that somehow Osama bin Laden was directly involved in 9/11. That evidence has never been forthcoming". VP Cheney, 3/29/2006. Interview by Tony Snow
Reply
post #5 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tauron View Post

Nope. I prefer my predictions because they take into account present and future events and not merely the current state.

Yes because why would we consider the present as any sort of starting point for predicting the future.

The future is simple to predict. When unemployment is still up over 6% or has not fallen at least 2 points from the highest rate (currently 9.7% is highest) then whoever is in power will get their ass handed to them no matter what you think they have done.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply
post #6 of 158
I wouldn't count on any big Republican comeback until after 2016.

That's basically it. They'll be back after they reform and decide on a direction ( and tone down the loud mouths a bit ).

The only thing that could possibly change this is a major blunder or embarrassment involving the Democrats and I think they're watching out for that ( something that the Republicans still haven't learned how to do ).
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
post #7 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tauron View Post

Why? Because despite of the blue dogs Obama and the democrats in house and congress will be credited with the following:

- putting US back on the map and leading the world in international cooperation in several fronts including financial balance and climate change
- reforming healthcare with a strong bill including the public option - this will turn out to be a tremendous boost for american economy and overall quality of life. This will, over time, cause the US to once more edge out in global competitiveness as it will be able to retain talent and attract new talent while increasing productivity of residents.
- reforming regulation of US economy which will show indications of stabilizing the country in the long run leading to prosperity
- leading groundbreaking laws on capping carbon emissions, improving fuel economy and overall reduction of carbon footprint

Meanwhile the GOP will be credited with the following:

- opposing each one of those initiatives taken by Obama
- moving away from the center and becoming more and more inseparable from the lunatic fringe elements (letting Rush, Beck and company run the show will backfire)

The populous will realize this. Even though 30% of americans have no sense of reality and will still vote republican, their losses will deepen more and more. What is now roughly a 60% democratic majority will become closer to a 70% majority.

In time the GOP will recover. But first it needs to isolate and purge all the fringe elements, which will take a long time.

Quote:
In time the GOP will recover. But first it needs to isolate and purge all the fringe elements, which will take a long time

Exactly.
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
post #8 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac View Post

I wouldn't count on any big Republican comeback until after 2016.

That's basically it. They'll be back after they reform and decide on a direction ( and tone down the loud mouths a bit ).

The only thing that could possibly change this is a major blunder or embarrassment involving the Democrats and I think they're watching out for that ( something that the Republicans still haven't learned how to do ).

Find me the last time a party gained or maintained seats in both houses while unemployment is at 9.7%.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply
post #9 of 158



Hehe!
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
post #10 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

Find me the last time a party gained or maintained seats in both houses while unemployment is at 9.7%.

So I'm getting from this that you do want me to reply to you?

Remember this later as I was ignoring you and keeping the peace. You didn't want to talk to me and I was complying.

It won't make any difference since most think the republicans put us there in the first place.

And of course in the meantime the right is building up such good political karma for themselves.


Boo!



Or




or




Or even this :



I'm sorry but face it!

Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
post #11 of 158
If the Republicans nominate Romney in 2012, and if unemployment is over 10% in 2012, then Obama will lose, otherwise Obama will win, IMHO.

If Obama wins in 2012, but does not reign in spending and new debt, then the Republicans will win in 2016 with a libertarian type policy.

How likely is that? No idea.
45 2a3 300b 211 845 833
Reply
45 2a3 300b 211 845 833
Reply
post #12 of 158
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac View Post




Hehe!

Correct!
post #13 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

If the Republicans nominate Romney in 2012, and if unemployment is over 10% in 2012, then Obama will lose, otherwise Obama will win, IMHO.

If Obama wins in 2012, but does not reign in spending and new debt, then the Republicans will win in 2016 with a libertarian type policy.

How likely is that? No idea.

It's likely we'll be past the worst of the unemployment lag by 2012. It's possible that Republicans could make a comeback by 2016. However if the Democrats have a strong candidate and the Republicans haven't learned their loudmouth factions and spin doctor with plenty of blame politics ( but without solutions ) aren't doing them any good it could be 2020 before they're back.
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
post #14 of 158
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac View Post

It's likely we'll be past the worst of the unemployment lag by 2012. It's possible that Republicans could make a comeback by 2016. However if the Democrats have a strong candidate and the Republicans haven't learned their loudmouth factions and spin doctor with plenty of blame politics ( but without solutions ) aren't doing them any good it could be 2020 before they're back.

I think more and more even conservatives are realizing that CusterFox News Channel is nothing more than right wing nuttery conspiracy theory propaganda. Once that "news" channel is turned off what is left will be the truth and then the conservatives without a continence will need to be removed and replaced by real politicians. That will take a long time to do.
post #15 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tauron View Post

I think more and more even conservatives are realizing that CusterFox News Channel is nothing more than right wing nuttery conspiracy theory propaganda. Once that "news" channel is turned off what is left will be the truth and then the conservatives without a continence will need to be removed and replaced by real politicians. That will take a long time to do.

Some people are very highly partisan, but you sir have to have the highest level of partisanship I have seen in a single entity in a long time.

1) ...CusterFox News Channel is nothing more than right wing nuttery conspiracy theory propaganda. Once that "news" channel is turned off what is left will be the truth...

So there are no other news channels out there that are biased to any world views? All of them have the truth and Fox News is the only one that could possibly be spreading their own interpretation of it.

2) and then the conservatives without a continence will need to be removed and replaced by real politicians.

First of all, what is a "real politician"? And what are we going to do about the other ones that have no "continence"? (I assume you mean conscience, not the inability to hold their urine.) If you are suggesting that there are only politician on any one side of the aisle that hold the medal for lack of conscience you have some serious blinders on.

3) That will take a long time to do.

Unfortunately you are right on this point. Without term limits, the prospect of changing any senator without a tremendous amount of money or a very large scandal is nearly none.
NoahJ
"It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err." - Mahatma Gandhi
Reply
NoahJ
"It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err." - Mahatma Gandhi
Reply
post #16 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tauron View Post

I think more and more even conservatives are realizing that CusterFox News Channel is nothing more than right wing nuttery conspiracy theory propaganda. Once that "news" channel is turned off what is left will be the truth and then the conservatives without a continence will need to be removed and replaced by real politicians. That will take a long time to do.

Even though I watch no cable news (I would probably need to have cable...) it is ridiculous to claim that Fox News will somehow disappear when it has the highest ratings while all the less watched cable news channels will somehow survive and thrive.

Most days and demos show Fox News with more viewers than the next three channels combined.

Somehow all of this is just going to "disappear."

Talk about your fantasies! Then again, we are talking about folks who don't deal with reality. Falling polls, falling fundraising, and bankrupt media allies are all proof of strength.

Don't forget also that...War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength.

This comes from the folks who are fiscally sane and responsible while doubling the national debt to ten trillion.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply
post #17 of 158
AAAAAAAAHHHHHH!!!!! Ignore function!

2016 or 2020.

Yup!
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
post #18 of 158
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac View Post

AAAAAAAAHHHHHH!!!!! Ignore function!

2016 or 2020.

Yup!

Or 2024
post #19 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tauron View Post

Why? Because despite of the blue dogs Obama and the democrats in house and congress will be credited with the following:

- putting US back on the map and leading the world in international cooperation in several fronts including financial balance and climate change
- reforming healthcare with a strong bill including the public option - this will turn out to be a tremendous boost for american economy and overall quality of life. This will, over time, cause the US to once more edge out in global competitiveness as it will be able to retain talent and attract new talent while increasing productivity of residents.
- reforming regulation of US economy which will show indications of stabilizing the country in the long run leading to prosperity
- leading groundbreaking laws on capping carbon emissions, improving fuel economy and overall reduction of carbon footprint

Too bad many of these things are so unpopular with the voters. And not because they don't understand them but because they do.
post #20 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by FloorJack View Post

Too bad many of these things are so unpopular with the wingnuts. And because they don't understand them but they think that they do.

Fixed That For You.
eye
bee
BEE
Reply
eye
bee
BEE
Reply
post #21 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by FormerLurker View Post

I can no longer address the content of what someone posts and must change it because it does not match the caricatures I have crafted in my mind.

Fixed that for you too.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply
post #22 of 158
So, you still feel the same, Tauron?

Obama flies to Denmark (as does his wife on a separate plane...together costing $1.5m in fuel alone) to lobby for the Olympics, only to be rejected.

Obama fiddles as Afghanistan burns

Obama promises no more than 8% unemployment. Today's number? 9.8%. And gee, isn't it funny that no one is talking about how that number is much lower than reality? During the Bush years, the "real" unemployment number was always tossed around here. Where is it now?

The public healthcare option is DOA. There will be a bill, and it will either be useless or not at all what the Dems wanted.

Have you seen what's happening around the county? I tried to get into a Glenn Beck book signing near my town last night (just to see what was happening). I couldn't, because there were 2,000 people in line at 7:00 in suburban Philly. Did you see the spending protest march on Washington? Low estimates were "tens of thousands." High estimates were 100,000 people.

Just a few examples. But yeah, the Dems are in great shape.
I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
Reply
I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
Reply
post #23 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post

Have you seen what's happening around the county? I tried to get into a Glenn Beck book signing near my town last night (just to see what was happening). I couldn't, because there were 2,000 people in line at 7:00 in suburban Philly. Did you see the spending protest march on Washington? Low estimates were "tens of thousands." High estimates were 100,000 people.

Just a few examples. But yeah, the Dems are in great shape.

Another take on Beck and company.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/02/opinion/02brooks.html
Let me know if the editorial is all lies.
post #24 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by screener View Post

Another take on Beck and company.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/02/opinion/02brooks.html
Let me know if the editorial is all lies.

The editorial is opinion.

Brooks is twisting himself into knots with his reasoning there.

See apparently the problem with the GOP is that they are ruled by these radio figures who don't have any real power, only illusory power which is shown by the fact that the party doesn't elect anyone they laud.

Doesn't this prove that the claim about Limbaugh and Beck "ruling" the Republican party is false and a media creation with the purpose of discrediting any information that might invalidate their narrative? Yes it does perfectly.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply
post #25 of 158
Not that I believe Obama really needed to get involved in the process (GW certainly would have for a city in Texas) and assume he was also taking care of other business during his trip (duh), but Rio was chosen for the Olympics... and the conservatives are giddy that, as they see it, Obama lost, and that a big American city is unworthy of the Olympics (and happens to be the hometown of the president).

Tremendous job opportunities. Tremendous money circulation. National prestige. Increased tourism. Nope, they don't matter so long as Obama lost.

The narrowness of the thinking here is astounding. Frightening, even.

Hopefully, the citizens will realize from this that the GOP doesn't give a hoot about the country and vote even more of them out.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/1..._n_307794.html

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply
post #26 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

The editorial is opinion.

Brooks is twisting himself into knots with his reasoning there.

See apparently the problem with the GOP is that they are ruled by these radio figures who don't have any real power, only illusory power which is shown by the fact that the party doesn't elect anyone they laud.

Doesn't this prove that the claim about Limbaugh and Beck "ruling" the Republican party is false and a media creation with the purpose of discrediting any information that might invalidate their narrative? Yes it does perfectly.

Well put. Also, the false assumption on which the author relies is that Beck, Hannity et al are going out and telling people for whom to vote. They are not.

I should also add that Limbaugh (on his own, mostly) went after Huckabee because he was simply playing the spoiler for Romney, thereby ensuring a McCain victory. Huckabee had no chance and he knew it. But he was able to siphon off conservative votes from Romney, particularly from evangelicals who probably would have put aside their issues with Romney's religion had it not been for Huckabee staying in the race.

Either way, that's in the past. I was speaking about current events. Based on observation, it seems the political winds are changing abruptly. Obama and the Dems have overreached greatly, and it seems to be awakening the sleeping giant of the mainstream center-right population of which this country is comprised.
I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
Reply
I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
Reply
post #27 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post

So, you still feel the same, Tauron?

Obama flies to Denmark (as does his wife on a separate plane...together costing $1.5m in fuel alone) to lobby for the Olympics, only to be rejected.

Obama fiddles as Afghanistan burns

Obama promises no more than 8% unemployment. Today's number? 9.8%. And gee, isn't it funny that no one is talking about how that number is much lower than reality? During the Bush years, the "real" unemployment number was always tossed around here. Where is it now?

The public healthcare option is DOA. There will be a bill, and it will either be useless or not at all what the Dems wanted.

Have you seen what's happening around the county? I tried to get into a Glenn Beck book signing near my town last night (just to see what was happening). I couldn't, because there were 2,000 people in line at 7:00 in suburban Philly. Did you see the spending protest march on Washington? Low estimates were "tens of thousands." High estimates were 100,000 people.

Just a few examples. But yeah, the Dems are in great shape.

You know I'm reading this waiting for something based in reality.

Instead I'm reading more wishful thinking on your part. Do as search SDW. It isn't difficult to find Republicans themselves talking about 2016.

But yeah it's too bad about this lousy recession Bush left us with.
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
post #28 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post

So, you still feel the same, Tauron?

Obama flies to Denmark (as does his wife on a separate plane...together costing $1.5m in fuel alone) to lobby for the Olympics, only to be rejected.

Obama fiddles as Afghanistan burns.

So after all those years telling us how President Bush can run everything just fine from his comfy home in Crawford you were really lying?

I don't get. Presidents can either multi-task or they can't. Which is it?
"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
Reply
"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
Reply
post #29 of 158
Republicans: YAY! AMERICA LOST!!! YAY!

Of course I'm sure they'll offer a "nuanced" opinion as to why this time it's different.
"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
Reply
"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
Reply
post #30 of 158
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post

So, you still feel the same, Tauron?

Obama flies to Denmark (as does his wife on a separate plane...together costing $1.5m in fuel alone) to lobby for the Olympics, only to be rejected.

Obama fiddles as Afghanistan burns

Obama promises no more than 8% unemployment. Today's number? 9.8%. And gee, isn't it funny that no one is talking about how that number is much lower than reality? During the Bush years, the "real" unemployment number was always tossed around here. Where is it now?

The public healthcare option is DOA. There will be a bill, and it will either be useless or not at all what the Dems wanted.

Have you seen what's happening around the county? I tried to get into a Glenn Beck book signing near my town last night (just to see what was happening). I couldn't, because there were 2,000 people in line at 7:00 in suburban Philly. Did you see the spending protest march on Washington? Low estimates were "tens of thousands." High estimates were 100,000 people.

Just a few examples. But yeah, the Dems are in great shape.

First off the trip didn't cost 1.5 million but even if it did the potential payoff of hundreds of millions of dollars more than justify the trip. GW Bush, on the other hand spent 1/3 of his presidency on vacation so no republican can ever talk with a straight face about this issue but of course double talk never stopped them before.

Obama is keeping his eye on the ball: Afghanistan, and will soon come up with a better strategy. Which beats the crap out of invading a country with no strategic relevance on the war on terror: Iraq.

Obama never promised an upper limit for unemployment and inherited the problem from Bush and all the republicans in the house and senate. Todays unemployment is the direct result of republican incompetence despite Obama's successful efforts in preventing a depression.

The public option is not dead yet.

The march you talked about is yet another astroturf organized by Fox and populated by the lunatic fringe. Just because there are tens of thousands of protesters it doesn't mean the majority of the populous is behind the cause. On the contrary, polls (a much more meaningful metric) shows the opposite.

You went to a Glen Beck book signing? Well that explains everything doesn't it?
post #31 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post

I tried to get into a Glenn Beck book signing near my town last night (just to see what was happening).

You went to a Glenn Beck book signing? Seriously? Jesus, you've lost all credibility!
"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
Reply
"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
Reply
post #32 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergermeister View Post

Not that I believe Obama really needed to get involved in the process (GW certainly would have for a city in Texas)

I like how it's not enough to keep it to Obama, we need to get in a quick (speculative) dig about what George W. Bush might have done.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergermeister View Post

Tremendous job opportunities. Tremendous money circulation. National prestige. Increased tourism.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tauron

First off the trip didn't cost 1.5 million but even if it did the potential payoff of hundreds of millions of dollars more than justify the trip.

Before jumping to conclusions about the benefit of hosting olympic games, you might peruse this: http://www.econ.queensu.ca/working_p...ed_wp_1097.pdf

Since it's doubtful that anyone is actually interested enough in facts, evidence, rational research and reasoning to read this report, I'll at least quote the conclusion:

Quote:
As we see from Table 5 above, even the most generous measure of net benefit of the Olympics – Event Benefits minus Event Costs – is negative (-$101m), although by a lesser amount than was anticipated at the beginning of the project. This figure is “helped” by fully evaluating the extra surplus from the spectacle and the Halo.

However, there are a number of factors which push the actual net benefit of this much-celebrated project even further into the red. The first, of course, are the infrastructure costs discussed in section 1. While this paper did not rigorously assess these, a casual perusal of the Infrastructure Costs and the non-Olympic Infrastructure Benefits which might be expected reveals that the net contribution of Infrastructure to the Olympic “bottom line” will be negative by hundreds of millions of dollars. While these costs are obvious, the standard counter-argument is that they will be offset by the “economic impact” of the Games. However, section 4 of this paper revealed that “economic impact”, when correctly accounted for, is not nearly as large as is generally assumed. When combined with the substantial upside risks inherent in costs of public works projects48, the expected overall net benefit of hosting an Olympic Games is substantially negative.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Tauron

Obama never promised an upper limit for unemployment

This chart says you're wrong:

post #33 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northgate View Post

So after all those years telling us how President Bush can run everything just fine from his comfy home in Crawford you were really lying?

I don't get. Presidents can either multi-task or they can't. Which is it?

I never claimed he couldn't multi-task. I never claimed he couldn't run things from Air Force One or anywhere in the world. I merely think he looks like a smacked ass.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Northgate View Post

Republicans: YAY! AMERICA LOST!!! YAY!

Of course I'm sure they'll offer a "nuanced" opinion as to why this time it's different.

No one is happy "America lost" (which it didn't). People are happy that Obama, who claims he talk anyone into or out of anything and "bring the world together," flew all the way to Denmark and then got rejected. It's a direct repudiation of his arrogant approach.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tauron View Post

First off the trip didn't cost 1.5 million but even if it did the potential payoff of hundreds of millions of dollars more than justify the trip.

The trip did cost that much.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...BFEIwD9B37CGO0

Quote:
A 2006 congressional study pegged the cost of flying Air Force One at $56,518 an hour. The Pentagon recently said it cost $100,219 an hour to fly the huge, reconfigured Boeing 747 without Obama aboard. The Pentagon estimate included more costs for support needs, such as maintenance.
At those rates, the president's 14-hour trip to Copenhagen and back cost about $790,000 to $1.4 million.

That's really just the plane. It doesn't include other costs.


Quote:
GW Bush, on the other hand spent 1/3 of his presidency on vacation so no republican can ever talk with a straight face about this issue but of course double talk never stopped them before.


I don't care if Obama goes on vacation. He can run things from wherever. This isn't about vacationing.

Quote:

Obama is keeping his eye on the ball: Afghanistan, and will soon come up with a better strategy. Which beats the crap out of invading a country with no strategic relevance on the war on terror: Iraq.

Obama is not even talking about Afghanistan. Meanwhile, troops are dying at an accelerated rate. Multiple military sources say without a quick change of strategy and more troops, we'll flat out lose. While he focuses on health care, the Olympics and who knows what else, young Americans are dying in Obama's War.

And really..ignoring Afghanistan while troops die....this "beats the crap" out of removing a brutal dictator and staying to finish the job. Also..I though we didn't have a "War on Terror" anymore?

Quote:

Obama never promised an upper limit for unemployment and inherited the problem from Bush and all the republicans in the house and senate. Todays unemployment is the direct result of republican incompetence despite Obama's successful efforts in preventing a depression.

False. The Obama admin said, while trying to pass the stimulus, that unemployment would go to 9% without it...and would peak at 8% with it. When it became clear they were on crack, they claimed that "[things were much worse than we thought. That Bush really left us in a mess not not even we knew the extent of.]"

Quote:

The public option is not dead yet.

It's pretty much dead. They don't have the votes in the Senate. Three Dems joined Republicans in markup to defeat two separate public options.

Quote:

The march you talked about is yet another astroturf organized by Fox and populated by the lunatic fringe. Just because there are tens of thousands of protesters it doesn't mean the majority of the populous is behind the cause. On the contrary, polls (a much more meaningful metric) shows the opposite.

First, you guys have made a huge mistake indicting your opposition as "astroturf." There is no way that nearly 100,000 people are part of a lunatic fringe. I know people that went. They are all reasoned, principled people who just happen to completely disagree with current government policies. Sure, you're going to have loons in any group. This was no exception. But isn't it funny? When thousands protested the Iraq war...you guys claimed it was a popular uprising ignored by the evil war monger, GWB. Hmmm.

Quote:

You went to a Glen Beck book signing? Well that explains everything doesn't it?

I did, and I don't need to defend it. Let me ask, have you ever watched or listened to his show for more than the 13 seconds that Colbert and Jon Stewart show of him?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Northgate View Post

You went to a Glenn Beck book signing? Seriously? Jesus, you've lost all credibility!

See above.
I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
Reply
I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
Reply
post #34 of 158
Quote:
First, you guys have made a huge mistake indicting your opposition as "astroturf." There is no way that nearly 100,000 people are part of a lunatic fringe. I know people that went. They are all reasoned, principled people who just happen to completely disagree with current government policies. Sure, you're going to have loons in any group. This was no exception. But isn't it funny? When thousands protested the Iraq war...you guys claimed it was a popular uprising ignored by the evil war monger, GWB. Hmmm.

It is interesting the tendancy of political people to immediately look for some way to marginalize their opposition by calling out a few of the fringe elements and slapping a label on them (AstroTurf, moonbat, etc) and then proceeds to lump anyone that has a position that even bears a slight resemblance with those people into the exact same group. It is mentally lazy at best and specious at worst. People should be called out for what they acually do and who they actually identify with, not for what they might possibly believe or who the fringe is that they can be lumped with today.

Both sides of the esablishment do it, but the rhetoric from the left is getting very high on these boards, and the sarcasm from the right that is being reflected back certainly does it's fair share to keep the coversation interesting to say the least. I can say that I love the topics that get posted on these forums and find our many useful and interesting points from all sides. But the level of hatred and anger gets a bit much. If you even try to understand an unpopular view, birthers for example, by trying to pose an argument based on what they believe, you are an idiot with no intelligence. What better way to understand what someone really believes than to try to walk in their shoes? Because not only do you get to know what they think, you also get to hear all the arguments against their position which will very quickly give you both sides of the story. People on these boards talk about walking in others shoes, as a sign of compassion, but show none of that compassion when someone actually does. Most who post on these forums are intelligent, and are more than able to argue their positions without the sarcasm and flamebait. But few actually do. Which is unfortunate as it makes the discussions more of a spectacle and less of a worthwhile read. Perhaps I am in the wrong place to expect more than this but I didn't think so when I started posting again.
NoahJ
"It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err." - Mahatma Gandhi
Reply
NoahJ
"It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err." - Mahatma Gandhi
Reply
post #35 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by NoahJ View Post

Both sides of the esablishment do it, but the rhetoric from the left is getting very high on these boards, and the sarcasm from the right that is being reflected back certainly does it's fair share to keep the coversation interesting to say the least.

I wouldn't call it interesting, necessarily.

I read the arguments from folks on the far left, the far right, and those I consider centrist (myself, and I consider you as one). What I find most interesting is the number of attacks against the centrists from the far left as opposed to the number of attacks from the far right.

The conclusion I draw from that is, the far left attack anything that disagrees with them and the far right primarily attack the far left. It gives the impression that the far right are much more intelligent, in my opinion. They at least know who their primary opponents are, and typically aren't alienating those who potentially benefit their cause.

I consider that an indication of the national trend. I read Rasmussen regularly and see how voters are leaning, and it reflects the same tendency. It appears to me that the GOP will make fairly substantial inroads next election.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ssional_ballot
Quote:
The new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 42% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 40% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.
...
This past summer, support for Republican candidates ranged from 41% to 44%, while support for Democrats ranged from 36% to 40%. Looking back one year ago, support was strikingly different for the parties. Throughout the summer of 2008, support for Democratic congressional candidates ranged from 45% to 48%. Republican support ranged from 34% to 37%.
post #36 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post

I never claimed he couldn't multi-task. I never claimed he couldn't run things from Air Force One or anywhere in the world. I merely think he looks like a smacked ass.



No one is happy "America lost" (which it didn't). People are happy that Obama, who claims he talk anyone into or out of anything and "bring the world together," flew all the way to Denmark and then got rejected. It's a direct repudiation of his arrogant approach.



The trip did cost that much.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...BFEIwD9B37CGO0



That's really just the plane. It doesn't include other costs.





I don't care if Obama goes on vacation. He can run things from wherever. This isn't about vacationing.



Obama is not even talking about Afghanistan. Meanwhile, troops are dying at an accelerated rate. Multiple military sources say without a quick change of strategy and more troops, we'll flat out lose. While he focuses on health care, the Olympics and who knows what else, young Americans are dying in Obama's War.

And really..ignoring Afghanistan while troops die....this "beats the crap" out of removing a brutal dictator and staying to finish the job. Also..I though we didn't have a "War on Terror" anymore?



False. The Obama admin said, while trying to pass the stimulus, that unemployment would go to 9% without it...and would peak at 8% with it. When it became clear they were on crack, they claimed that "[things were much worse than we thought. That Bush really left us in a mess not not even we knew the extent of.]"



It's pretty much dead. They don't have the votes in the Senate. Three Dems joined Republicans in markup to defeat two separate public options.



First, you guys have made a huge mistake indicting your opposition as "astroturf." There is no way that nearly 100,000 people are part of a lunatic fringe. I know people that went. They are all reasoned, principled people who just happen to completely disagree with current government policies. Sure, you're going to have loons in any group. This was no exception. But isn't it funny? When thousands protested the Iraq war...you guys claimed it was a popular uprising ignored by the evil war monger, GWB. Hmmm.



I did, and I don't need to defend it. Let me ask, have you ever watched or listened to his show for more than the 13 seconds that Colbert and Jon Stewart show of him?



See above.

Quote:
I did, and I don't need to defend it. Let me ask, have you ever watched or listened to his show for more than the 13 seconds that Colbert and Jon Stewart show of him?

I agree with Northgate. Beck's a schmuck of the lowest ( lying ) form. I'd say you've lost all credibiltiy but you lost it for me back with Iraq and WMD. I'm not terribly fond of us being in Afghanistan myself but at least there's a real reason.

The rest is the usual ( slanted for distribution ) diatribe.


Ps. It's people like Beck that will hold back the Republicans from recovering. 2016 or 2020.
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
post #37 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by involuntary_serf View Post

I like how it's not enough to keep it to Obama, we need to get in a quick (speculative) dig about what George W. Bush might have done.






Before jumping to conclusions about the benefit of hosting olympic games, you might peruse this: http://www.econ.queensu.ca/working_p...ed_wp_1097.pdf

Since it's doubtful that anyone is actually interested enough in facts, evidence, rational research and reasoning to read this report, I'll at least quote the conclusion:






This chart says you're wrong:


And the chart came from where?

Well we have a bad recession that was left over from the wonderful Bush administration and it got worse than people wanted or expected.

Obama has no direct control over this but unlike his predecessor at least he's trying. What would you do? just let it run on it's own and hope for the best. Been there done that. Basically how we got into this mess.
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
post #38 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northgate View Post

So after all those years telling us how President Bush can run everything just fine from his comfy home in Crawford you were really lying?

I don't get. Presidents can either multi-task or they can't. Which is it?



We don't need no stinking past!


You just gotta love how they take an item and isolate it from scrutiny!


" Don't quote me against me! "

Jesus!
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
post #39 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac View Post



We don't need no stinking past!


You just gotta love how they take an item and isolate it from scrutiny!


" Don't quote me against me! "

Jesus!

Let's not pretend the Country wasn't run by the Bush administration for most of the last 8 years ok SDW?
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
post #40 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac View Post

I agree with Northgate. Beck's a schmuck of the lowest ( lying ) form. I'd say you've lost all credibiltiy but you lost it for me back with Iraq and WMD. I'm not terribly fond of us being in Afghanistan myself but at least there's a real reason.

The rest is the usual ( slanted for distribution ) diatribe.


Ps. It's people like Beck that will hold back the Republicans from recovering. 2016 or 2020.

I frankly don't give a shit what you think of my "credibility." If you dismiss someone simply because he checks out book signing out of curiosity, then you obviously aren't very confident in your own beliefs.

Now, on to Beck: I have a question to ask you, but first, let me give you my take on Beck. Overall, I like what he says. I do think he goes overboard with the "world is ending" point of view he seems to hold, but his points on spending/deficits/taxes/debt are good ones. I have not read any of his books, though I plan to read the latest one, even if for entertainment purposes. I've not heard him be racist or beat the drum for the GOP and the GOP alone. He relies heavily on historical arguments based on the words of the founding fathers. He doesn't present himself as an intellectual, because he's not. He plainly states his opinions, most of which I agree with.

So...my question: Why is he a schmuck? Because you disagree with his opinions?
I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
Reply
I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
Reply
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: PoliticalOutsider
AppleInsider › Forums › Other Discussion › AppleOutsider › PoliticalOutsider › 2010 Elections: GOP to lose even more ground