Apple may even have a hard time gaining smartphone market share, too. Android is going to run on every nickel and dime smartphone in every third-world country. Most manufacturers around the world don't really concern themselves about quality or ecosystems or customer support. They're only selling devices to people who want the least expensive device they can get their hands on. In places like India and Africa, nobody cares about brand names. They just buy whatever they can afford and the cheaper the better.
I looking forward to the Apple tablet possibly picking up slack from Apple's desktop sales. If just the educational sector would take some interest in it and start using it in schools, Apple could possibly get a lot of business.