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Oct. estimates suggest Apple will sell 2.9M Macs this quarter

post #1 of 35
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Sales figures for the month of October show that Apple is on track to meet Wall Street expectations for its first financial quarter, which includes the busy holiday season.

But given that nearly 50 percent of Mac sales in the three-month frame take place in the month of December, it is still too early to tell with certainty how Apple will perform, Gene Munster, analyst with Piper Jaffray, told investors in a note released Wednesday afternoon. Retail sales data from NPD Group for the month of October suggests that Apple will sell between 2.8 million and 2.9 million Macs in the December quarter; Wall Street consensus is said to be about 2.85 million.

If those estimates hold true, that would put overall Mac sales up 14 percent year-over-year. NPD data for October was up 7 percent year-over-year.

"We expect new iMacs, which launched on 10/20, to help the desktop category rebound in the Dec. quarter," Munster wrote. "NPD data indicates that desktop Macs were up 45% y/y in the month of Oct. In other words, the headwind that existed into the Sept. quarter due to aging Mac desktops has now turned into a tailwind for Mac units in the Dec. quarter."

Munster said that although the October numbers were only up 7 percent year-over-year, that month also included the toughest segment of the quarter, as it was in October 2008 that Apple released its new aluminum MacBook Pros. He believes the addition of new desktop Macs late in October this year will be a key driver in boosting sales as the calendar year closes out.

iPod sales in October were said to be down 11 percent year-over-year. But again, Munster noted that more than half of iPods sold in the December quarter occur during the month of December.

"In other words," he wrote, "we believe the actual numbers for iPod will be slightly better than NPD would suggest."

That means Munster believes that iPod sales for the quarter will top the 19 million to 20 million implied by the current NPD numbers.

In October, Apple reported its best quarter ever, based on sales of 3 million Macs and 7.4 million iPhones. The company's profits rose more than 46 percent in the three-month period that concluded on Sept. 26.

Mac desktop sales fell 16 percent year-over-year in the September quarter, but Munster and others expect that those sales will spike given the release of new iMacs, a unibody polycarbonate MacBook, and faster Mac minis.

Piper Jaffray has maintained its overweight rating for AAPL stock, as well as a $277 price target.
post #2 of 35
An' ah hailped! (for the younger among ya, that's an old shake 'n' bake commercial) (it was annoying back then, too.)
post #3 of 35
With the new iMacs and new MacBooks, Apple’s best selling Macs fresh and new I am thinking they’ll beat Q4-2009 with another record. 3.12M Macs.
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post #4 of 35
i smell another record quarter for Mac sales.
post #5 of 35
OK. I'll be the resident worrier: At some point, the treadmill will slow, and a quarter will inevitably be missed.

As a shareholder, I dread that day.
post #6 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

OK. I'll be the resident worrier: At some point, the treadmill will slow, and a quarter will inevitably be missed.

As a shareholder, I dread that day.

I dont think weve reached that point yet. Machines with Win7 will be on the rise, MS will undoubtedly announce record OS sales for the quarter and Mac unit sales will likely see a drop in growth but Id wager they will still make record sales and grow faster than the industry as a whole.

The drop in MacBook pricing only occurred earlier this year and the use of desktop-class CPUs in the iMac does make them more appealing on a cost-per-performance level. Going down a step in minimum price opens up a lot more new potential customers than going up a step. I don think the lack of new pro machines this holiday quarter will make a huge impact.
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post #7 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

I have a tissue if you need one.

I am not surprised that you keep them with you! Must need it all the time, hanging around in this forum.....

Thanks for the offer.
post #8 of 35
Great for my porfoliio!!!
80 million iPhones by 2012. That's only 15% of the market.

http://www.iphonethailand.net
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80 million iPhones by 2012. That's only 15% of the market.

http://www.iphonethailand.net
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post #9 of 35
I'm not at all surprised by this.
post #10 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

I have a tissue if you need one.

I'll just use my shirt sleeve, thank you very much.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #11 of 35
My prediction: Apple will sell 4 million Macs and 25 million iPods in the Xmas quarter...
post #12 of 35
Yeah I helped too! Just BTO an iMac i7. Delivery: Dec 4.

Only buy a new computer once every 6 years, not rich. Going a little crazy now. Discovered AirTunes and have maxed out my iBookG4 60GB HD.

Gonna be a llllloooong 2+ weeks.
post #13 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

OK. I'll be the resident worrier: At some point, the treadmill will slow, and a quarter will inevitably be missed.

As a shareholder, I dread that day.

I'm holding my aapl. It doesn't seem like that long ago that they had the first 2m Mac quarter. Here we are in the 3m neighborhood already. With such a low market share there's plenty of room to run.

Think about how many quarters analysts predicted a decline in iPod sales growth. It finally got here - nudged along by the iPhone, but it took MANY more quarters than anyone on Wall Street anticipated.

The halo effect from the iPod didn't happen as quickly as I thought it would, but Macs are taking hold as a safe and sensible home computer alternative.

These sales numbers will keep climbing for years. YEARS.
Emailing video from iPhone to Apple TV , sort of..
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Emailing video from iPhone to Apple TV , sort of..
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post #14 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by walshbj View Post

I'm holding my aapl. It doesn't seem like that long ago that they had the first 2m Mac quarter. Here we are in the 3m neighborhood already. With such a low market share there's plenty of room to run.

Think about how many quarters analysts predicted a decline in iPod sales growth. It finally got here - nudged along by the iPhone, but it took MANY more quarters than anyone on Wall Street anticipated.

The halo effect from the iPod didn't happen as quickly as I thought it would, but Macs are taking hold as a safe and sensible home computer alternative.

These sales numbers will keep climbing for years. YEARS.

Oh, I am holding for the very long haul. There's no better tech stock that I can think of with which I would want to do that at the moment. I totally agree that there's a lot of room to run, numbers will keep climbing, and all that good stuff.

It is just that I think expectations are running apace, perhaps even ahead of all the good stuff.....
post #15 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

With the new iMacs and new MacBooks, Apples best selling Macs fresh and new I am thinking theyll beat Q4-2009 with another record. 3.12M Macs.

Oh please you pulled that number out of your a$$. Of course your hinie is smarter then my beer soaked brain so you are probably correct. I do wonder though if they can hit that number because it seems like they are having a slow ramp up for the quad core imac. Imho.
Another thing I wonder is how much capacity do their contract manufacturers have? If sales exceed Apple's forecast can their manufacturers make up the difference?

Jim
Crying? No, I am not crying. I am sweating through my eyes.
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Crying? No, I am not crying. I am sweating through my eyes.
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post #16 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I am not surprised that you keep them with you! Must need it all the time, hanging around in this forum.....

Thanks for the offer.

Well, all the freely floating humour around here, bundled with hilarious failed attempts, does often bring tears in one's eyes
post #17 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigdaddyp View Post

Oh please you pulled that number out of your a$$.

I assure you I did calculations to arrive at that figure but there is a certain level of guess work involved (refuse to use the combination word of guess and estimation) and that it comes from same place as these other analysts. So yes, it’s pulled from my arse.

edit: Some of the figures I used to arrive at my number.

Mac sales in millions...

Q4-2008 —

2.61 (White MB starts at $1,099, Al MB doesn’t exist yet; 21% increase YoY from Q4-2007)) *
Q1-2009 — 2.52 (White MB starts at $999 ($100 drop), Al MB starts at $1,299; 09% increase YoY from Q1-2008) **
Q4-2009 — 3.05 (White MB starts at $999 with new case, Al MBP starts at $1,199 ($100 drop); 17% increase YoY from Q4-2008)
* http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2008/10/21results.html
** http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2009/01/21results.html
http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2009/10/19results.html
With new MB and iMacs that just came out, new lower priced MBPs over last year, SL on Macs, a recession that is over is some regards and, actually, Windows7 helping spur the PC market in general the way the iPhone helped smartphone sales in general will all help Apple do a 25% increase in YoY unit sales, hence selling 3.12M units.
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post #18 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

With the new iMacs and new MacBooks, Apples best selling Macs fresh and new I am thinking theyll beat Q4-2009 with another record. 3.12M Macs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigdaddyp View Post

Oh please you pulled that number out of your a$$.

He used the process of elimination.
post #19 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by elroth View Post

He used the process of elimination.

Commode over here and say that.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #20 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I assure you I did calculations to arrive at that figure but there is a certain level of guess work involved (refuse to use the combination word of guess and estimation) and that it comes from same place as these other analysts. So yes, its pulled from my arse.

edit: Some of the figures I used to arrive at my number.

Mac sales in millions...

Q4-2008

2.61 (White MB starts at $1,099, Al MB doesnt exist yet; 21% increase YoY from Q4-2007)) *
Q1-2009 2.52 (White MB starts at $999 ($100 drop), Al MB starts at $1,299; 09% increase YoY from Q1-2008) **
Q4-2009 3.05 (White MB starts at $999 with new case, Al MBP starts at $1,199 ($100 drop); 17% increase YoY from Q4-2008)
* http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2008/10/21results.html
** http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2009/01/21results.html
http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2009/10/19results.html
With new MB and iMacs that just came out, new lower priced MBPs over last year, SL on Macs, a recession that is over is some regards and, actually, Windows7 helping spur the PC market in general the way the iPhone helped smartphone sales in general will all help Apple do a 25% increase in YoY unit sales, hence selling 3.12M units.

I have read enough of your posts that I did actually think you probably had done some calculations to arrive at that number. Although that number initially sounded high to me, your logic does make sense.
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post #21 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by elroth View Post

He used the process of elimination.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Commode over here and say that.



Let me ass you a question. Do you think he flushed?
Crying? No, I am not crying. I am sweating through my eyes.
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post #22 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by elroth View Post

He used the process of elimination.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Commode over here and say that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigdaddyp View Post



Let me ass you a question. Do you think he flushed?

Speaking of… What has happened to this forum’s resident irritable bowel syndrome? These forums have’t gone down the tubes due to his shit the last few days. It’s been great. I love when AI is regular.
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post #23 of 35
3 mil plus...my 2 cents!

My daughter wants a new 15" MacBookPro for her second year in Med School and give me back my original intel 13" white macbook! (and she wants 2TB TimeCapsule)


I will get a new 27" iMac to replace my original intel 20" white iMac. (and a 2TB TimeCapsule)

There's two!
post #24 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigdaddyp View Post



Let me ass you a question. Do you think he flushed?

Yes, I should say 3 mil+ per 'anum!'
post #25 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigdaddyp View Post

Let me ass you a question. Do you think he flushed?

You should know better than toilet me reply.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #26 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

OK. I'll be the resident worrier: At some point, the treadmill will slow, and a quarter will inevitably be missed.

As a shareholder, I dread that day.

Worry when their market share surpasses 25% of the market. That should take > 5 more years before you should see a psychiatrist to ease your fears.
post #27 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

Worry when their market share surpasses 25% of the market. That should take > 5 more years before you should see a psychiatrist to ease your fears.

I cant see that ever happen with the current business model. Even with inflation over the next decade the cheapest Mac notebook starting at $999 USD will make getting 25% of the worldwide marketshare an impossibility, especially with PC sales growing throughout the world as populace countries with low-income residences get more connected. HP may even have a problem holding onto their 25% marketshare.
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post #28 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

Worry when their market share surpasses 25% of the market. That should take > 5 more years before you should see a psychiatrist to ease your fears.

Will Windows suck THAT much??
post #29 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

You should know better than toilet me reply.

This may well be the crapiest thread ever. .... Thanks for the laughs.
Apple is not Appl ...... Please learn the difference!    
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Apple is not Appl ...... Please learn the difference!    
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post #30 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cascadians View Post

Yeah I helped too! Just BTO an iMac i7. Delivery: Dec 4.

Only buy a new computer once every 6 years, not rich. Going a little crazy now. Discovered AirTunes and have maxed out my iBookG4 60GB HD.

Gonna be a llllloooong 2+ weeks.

Air tunes is amazing. I am sure you gonna love your new imac, best of luck with it.
post #31 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbee View Post

This may well be the crapiest thread ever. .... Thanks for the laughs.

Enough already. lets hope this sillyness does not continue into the new day.

(There must have been something in the water yesturday.)
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
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Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
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post #32 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelt View Post

An' ah hailped! (for the younger among ya, that's an old shake 'n' bake commercial) (it was annoying back then, too.)

i hated that family too
we used to cheat and use pork shake and bake for chicken

Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

With the new iMacs and new MacBooks,s best selling s fresh and new I am thinking they’ll beat Q4-2009 with another record. 3.12M Macs.

4 million is my bet
ipod touch wiil approach or top i phone in sales

Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

i smell another record quarter for  sales.

right now it smells nice
yet a few posts later they all forgot to flush ..

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

OK. I'll be the resident worrier: At some point, the treadmill will slow, and a quarter will inevitably be missed.

As a shareholder, I dread that day.

I ALSO OWN PL
the day it drops is the day i buy more

Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

I have a tissue if you need one.

i love this side of you !! high five dude
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

LOL. You make it sound like I hate . I am on my Macbook Pro now. Would you like me to send you a Christmas picture of me using it. You are on my Christmas list you know.

i love lists
i would like a soundboard bootleg of the doors miami 69 for xmas
please

Quote:
Originally Posted by macshark View Post

My prediction:  will sell 4 million  Macs and 25 million  iPods in the Xmas quarter...

yes
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Commode over here and say that.

i spit up my hot toody on this one
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigdaddyp View Post



Let me ass you a question. Do you think he flushed?

oh boy
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Speaking of… What has happened to this forum’s resident irritable bowel syndrome? These forums have’t gone down the tubes due to his shit the last few days. It’s been great. I love when AI is regular.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

You should know better than toilet me reply.

my face hurts from smiling
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbee View Post

This may well be the crapiest thread ever. .... Thanks for the laughs.

thanks guys also for the giggle .somehow you all seem human to me now
not like some goggle bots
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

Enough already. lets hope this sillyness does not continue into the new day.

(There must have been something in the water yesturday.)

topic score 100 for cool stuff

plessse click on my link for safe holiiday eating out

this will be >> with china and Korea now online with the iphone and << Canada's and Europes market wide open
and millions more verizon/sprint/7eleven 2yr phone contracts expired<<<will give us another explosive 1/4 for the iphone ,

THE mightly palm pre is all but a bread crumb on the table ..to sad to flick it off.


and the millions of p/c owners now desperate but too poor to buy a MB white will buy a small piece of apple heaven by the way of ipod touch or 160g ipod classic

so >>
include all the high profit stores
itunes dales
app store sales
file maker pro SW sales
mac sales
phone sales
third party sales
OSX snowy sales
all ipod sales
et etc etc

and large educational AND company purchases

this 1/4 will shine

every product is high profit
every product increases the
APPLE WORLD DOMINATION BASE
making for even more future sales
aapl at $228 a share soon


in 11 1/4,s the nano- phone will emerge
the win 95 roll out will pale in comparison
why must i always blab on

sorry folkkes
whats in a name ? 
beatles
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whats in a name ? 
beatles
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post #33 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

Enough already. lets hope this sillyness does not continue into the new day.

(There must have been something in the water yesturday.)

Yes, we were plumbing the depths.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #34 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by myapplelove View Post

Air tunes is amazing. I am sure you gonna love your new imac, best of luck with it.

Thanks! Listened to 27" speakers at Store, very nice, zillions x better than this old laptop, gonna be a fabulous addition via AirTunes to the 10 speakers already all at once reverberating awesome music through the house and raising the rafters, kaloo kalay!
post #35 of 35
For some, there might not be a Christmas . . .

http://www.macdailynews.com/index.ph..._numbers_miss/
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