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Climategate - Page 65

post #2561 of 3039
10/27/10 at 4:38pm
Thread Starter 
It's clear who the real "deniers" are, here.

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

Reply

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

Reply
post #2562 of 3039
10/27/10 at 4:47pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

It's clear who the real "deniers" are, here.



NOT I



I'm not one who points fingers at any one, but there are two who suggested that someone here start a blog.


無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
post #2563 of 3039
10/27/10 at 5:35pm
Modern Global Climate Change
Thomas R. Karl1 and Kevin E. Trenberth2

Quote:
Modern climate change is dominated by human influences, which are now large enough to exceed the bounds of natural variability. The main source of global climate change is human-induced changes in atmospheric composition. These perturbations primarily result from emissions associated with energy use, but on local and regional scales, urbanization and land use changes are also important. Although there has been progress in monitoring and understanding climate change, there remain many scientific, technical, and institutional impediments to precisely planning for, adapting to, and mitigating the effects of climate change. There is still considerable uncertainty about the rates of change that can be expected, but it is clear that these changes will be increasingly manifested in important and tangible ways, such as changes in extremes of temperature and precipitation, decreases in seasonal and perennial snow and ice extent, and sea level rise. Anthropogenic climate change is now likely to continue for many centuries. We are venturing into the unknown with climate, and its associated impacts could be quite disruptive.

1 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, Satellite and Information Services, 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC, 288015001, USA.
2 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Post Office Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.

*To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: Thomas.R.Karl@noaa.gov
also
Science as a threat to far-right fringe

無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
post #2564 of 3039
10/27/10 at 5:45pm
Thread Starter 
I welcome and encourage science. Unfortunately the green movement has very little to do with science.

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

Reply

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

Reply
post #2565 of 3039
10/27/10 at 5:48pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by FineTunes View Post

Modern Global Climate Change
Thomas R. Karl1 and Kevin E. Trenberth2



1 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, Satellite and Information Services, 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC, 288015001, USA.
2 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Post Office Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.

*To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: Thomas.R.Karl@noaa.gov
also
Science as a threat to far-right fringe


FineTunes, I truly admire your effort but I think your amazing energy would be better spent convincing a pebble. You also might get more intelligent responses.
yes I want oil genocide.
Reply
yes I want oil genocide.
Reply
post #2566 of 3039
10/27/10 at 5:49pm
Thread Starter 
Hi Wormhole!

The science should speak for itself. And I'm listening. To all of it.

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

Reply

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

Reply
post #2567 of 3039
10/27/10 at 5:54pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

I welcome and encourage science. Unfortunately the green movement has very little to do with science.

無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
post #2568 of 3039
10/27/10 at 5:57pm
Thread Starter 
The surprisingly complex truth about planes and climate change

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

Reply

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

Reply
post #2569 of 3039
10/27/10 at 6:04pm
Thread Starter 
New Paper With Stunning Admission By Climate Alarmist Scientists: Actual CO2 Emissions Are Unknown; Please Send Money!

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

Reply

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

Reply
post #2570 of 3039
10/27/10 at 6:04pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wormhole View Post

FineTunes, I truly admire your effort but I think your amazing energy would be better spent convincing a pebble. You also might get more intelligent responses.

To move a mountain, you must begin by moving the pebble. Thanks for the comment.

無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
post #2571 of 3039
10/27/10 at 6:58pm
Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing Earths Temperature
Science 15 October 2010:
Vol. 330. no. 6002, pp. 356 - 359
Andrew A. Lacis,* Gavin A. Schmidt, David Rind, Reto A. Ruedy

Quote:
Ample physical evidence shows that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the single most important climate-relevant greenhouse gas in Earths atmosphere. This is because CO2, like ozone, N2O, CH4, and chlorofluorocarbons, does not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere at current climate temperatures, whereas water vapor can and does. Noncondensing greenhouse gases, which account for 25% of the total terrestrial greenhouse effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperature structure that sustains the current levels of atmospheric water vapor and clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75% of the greenhouse effect. Without the radiative forcing supplied by CO2 and the other noncondensing greenhouse gases, the terrestrial greenhouse would collapse, plunging the global climate into an icebound Earth state.

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: andrew.a.lacis@nasa.gov

Should not be interpreted that increasing CO2 levels are a good thing. There was always a CO2 component in the atmosphere. From this you can project that increasing CO2 can mean more retention of heat---there is a balance.

無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
post #2572 of 3039
10/28/10 at 3:47am
  • BR
  • Justified Arrogance
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

I welcome and encourage science. Unfortunately the green movement has very little to do with science.

You are a mormon. You do not welcome or encourage science. Sorry. Mutually exclusive. You opened the door to this line of reasoning.

 

“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
Reply

 

“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
Reply
post #2573 of 3039
10/28/10 at 7:47am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BR View Post

You are a mormon. You do not welcome or encourage science. Sorry. Mutually exclusive. You opened the door to this line of reasoning.

Science and religion are not mutually exclusive. You'd like them to be, but they are not.

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

Reply

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

Reply
post #2574 of 3039
10/28/10 at 8:58am
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

The surprisingly complex truth about planes and climate change

Specific Climate Impact of Passenger and Freight Transport

Quote:
Emissions of short-lived species contribute significantly to the climate impact of transportation. The magnitude of the effects varies over time for each transport mode. This paper compares first the absolute climate impacts of current passenger and freight transportation. Second, the impacts are normalized with the transport work performed and modes are compared. Calculations are performed for the integrated radiative forcing and mean temperature change, for different time horizons and various measures of transport work. An unambiguous ranking of the specific climate impact can be established for freight transportation, with shipping and rail having lowest and light trucks and air transport having highest specific impact for all cases calculated. Passenger travel with rail, coach or two- and three-wheelers has on average the lowest specific climate impact also on short time horizons. Air travel has the highest specific impact on short-term warming, while on long-term warming car travel has an equal or higher impact per passenger-kilometer.

Paper cited from your news article---What's your point with this?

無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
post #2575 of 3039
10/28/10 at 9:26am
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

New Paper With Stunning Admission By Climate Alarmist Scientists: Actual CO2 Emissions Are Unknown; Please Send Money!


Is the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions increasing?


Quote:

Figure 1: Observed increase atmospheric CO2 derived from direct measurements, taking the average of Mauna Loa (Hawaii) and the South Pole (thin solid line) and two ice cores: Law Dome (dashed thin line) and Siple (thin dotted line). This is compared to total anthropogenic emissions (thick solid line) and 46% of total emissions (thick dashed line). (Knorr 2009

Quote:
The airborne fraction is calculated from the rate of human CO2 emissions and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. The global increase in atmospheric CO2 has been directly measured since 1959 and can be calculated from ice cores for earlier periods. Primarily, CO2 emissions come from fossil fuel combustion with a lesser contribution from land use changes. Fossil fuel combustion is calculated from international energy statistics. CO2 emissions from land-use changes are more difficult to estimate and come with greater uncertainty. Land use emissions are estimated using deforestation and other land-use data, fire observations from space and carbon cycle modeling.

Knorr also finds the 150 year trend while Le Quéré looks at the last 50 years. This may be significant. If the airborne fraction is increasing, it is possibly a recent phenomenon due to natural carbon sinks losing their absorption ability after becoming saturated. Several studies have found recent drops in the uptake of CO2 by oceans (Le Quere 2007, Schuster 2007, Park 2008). However, with such a noisy signal, this is one question that will require more data before being more fully resolved.

Lastly, some perspective. There are still areas of uncertainty associated with the carbon cycle. Because of this uncertainty, scientists are currently debating whether the airborne fraction is steady at 43% or slightly Increasing from 43%. Unfortunately, some skeptics use this uncertainty to hold the position that the airborne fraction is closer to 0%.

無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #2576 of 3039
10/28/10 at 9:27am
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

Hi Wormhole!

The science should speak for itself. And I'm listening. To all of it.


無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
post #2577 of 3039
10/28/10 at 2:58pm
Independent review of IPCC and its global warming reports: an answer to critics

The political fight over the science of global warming took another turn when the United Nations announced Wednesday that it was initiating an investigation into the practices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Quote:
Top international scientists will take part in an independent review of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its reports on global warming, which have been widely criticized recently for inaccuracies.

The probe will be run by an international consortium of national academies of science, the InterAcademy Council. The yet-to-be-staffed panel is charged with developing recommendations on procedural improvements that the global climate-science advisory body should adopt as it prepares a new set of reports on climate science, due out in 2014.

The actions are a response to more than three months of embarrassing revelations, beginning with the widespread publication of e-mails either leaked or hacked from the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit in England.

The e-mails opened a window on the personal attacks, short tempers, and internal politics that often come with research all the more so in fields on which the political process has placed so much emphasis.

Through it all, most researchers agree that these basic conclusions contained in the IPCC reports remain solidly intact: Warming since the Industrial Revolution is "unequivocal"; most of the warming the climate has undergone during the past half century is "very likely" due to human influence; that warming's effects are appearing in virtually every region around the globe, and in many cases faster than models have projected; and that countries will need to adopt what Stanford University's Christopher Field refers to as "a portfolio of measures" for adaptation to change, as well as to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and land-use practices that have compounded the change.

"None of these scientific conclusions have been fundamentally challenged by any of the recent issues associated with the IPCC," said Dr. Field, who co-chairs one of the IPCC's three working groups and heads the Carnegie Institution's department of global ecology.

The constant tugging over climate science and the behaviors revealed in the hacked e-mails are traceable to politicians demanding of science something it was never designed to deliver, according to Daniel Sarewitz, co-director of Arizona State University's Consortium for Science, Policy, and Outcomes.

Quote:
"Science has been called on to do something beyond its purview: not just improve people's understanding of the world, but compel people to act in a particular way," he writes in a recent issue of the journal Nature. "Rehabilitation of climate policy is a matter not of getting the science right, but of getting the politics right."

Comments jg??

jg Comments?

無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #2578 of 3039
10/28/10 at 3:17pm
  • BR
  • Justified Arrogance
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

Science and religion are not mutually exclusive. You'd like them to be, but they are not.

The way you practice religion, yes, they are mutually exclusive. Some very, very limited forms of theism may minimize the conflict.

 

“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
Reply

 

“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
Reply
post #2579 of 3039
10/28/10 at 5:00pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

It'll take you a while to catch up, FineTunes.

I PASSED YOU ABOUT 90 MILES AGO, BUT YOU WERE

無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #2580 of 3039
10/28/10 at 10:26pm
Caging Carbon Dioxide
Science 29 October 2010:
Vol. 330. no. 6004, pp. 595 596

DOI: 10.1126/science.1198066
Christian Lastoskie

Quote:
A transition to a portfolio of renewable energy, nuclear power, and biofuels may yet mitigate the perceived calamities of global climate change. In the meantime, the global abundance of accessible, inexpensive coal, combined with incessant pressure for economic growth among developed and developing nations, will ensure that present-day investments in fossil energy are not casually abandoned. Many more gigatons of carbon dioxide are thus slated for discharge into the atmosphere in the coming decades. Given this reality, technology advancements that address global climate change through carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) are equally important as innovations that spur the adoption of wind power, photovoltaics, and other generation assets with small carbon footprints. On page 650 of this issue, Vaidhyanathan et al. (1) report theoretical and experimental studies that impart a better understanding of a chemical interaction that appears central to improving CCS technologythe interaction of carbon dioxide with amine functional groups.

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
E-mail: cmlasto@umich.edu

Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure
Science 10 September 2010:
Vol. 329. no. 5997, pp. 1330 1333

DOI: 10.1126/science.1188566
Steven J. Davis,1,* Ken Caldeira,1 H. Damon Matthews2

Quote:
Slowing climate change requires overcoming inertia in political, technological, and geophysical systems. Of these, only geophysical warming commitment has been quantified. We estimated the commitment to future emissions and warming represented by existing carbon dioxideemitting devices. We calculated cumulative future emissions of 496 (282 to 701 in lower- and upper-bounding scenarios) gigatonnes of CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels by existing infrastructure between 2010 and 2060, forcing mean warming of 1.3°C (1.1° to 1.4°C) above the pre-industrial era and atmospheric concentrations of CO2 less than 430 parts per million. Because these conditions would likely avoid many key impacts of climate change, we conclude that sources of the most threatening emissions have yet to be built. However, CO2-emitting infrastructure will expand unless extraordinary efforts are undertaken to develop alternatives.

1 Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
2 Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University, 1455 de Maisonneuve Boulevard West, H 1255-26 (Hall Building), Montreal, Quebec H3G 1M8, Canada.
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: sjdavis@carnegie.stanford.edu

The Growing Human Footprint on Coastal and Open-Ocean Biogeochemistry
Science 18 June 2010:
Vol. 328. no. 5985, pp. 1512 1516

DOI: 10.1126/science.1185198
Scott C. Doney

Quote:
Climate change, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide, excess nutrient inputs, and pollution in its many forms are fundamentally altering the chemistry of the ocean, often on a global scale and, in some cases, at rates greatly exceeding those in the historical and recent geological record. Major observed trends include a shift in the acid-base chemistry of seawater, reduced subsurface oxygen both in near-shore coastal water and in the open ocean, rising coastal nitrogen levels, and widespread increase in mercury and persistent organic pollutants. Most of these perturbations, tied either directly or indirectly to human fossil fuel combustion, fertilizer use, and industrial activity, are projected to grow in coming decades, resulting in increasing negative impacts on ocean biota and marine resources.

Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA. E-mail: sdoney@whoi.edu

The Impact of Climate Change on the Worlds Marine Ecosystems
Science 18 June 2010:
Vol. 328. no. 5985, pp. 1523 1528

DOI: 10.1126/science.1189930
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg1,* and John F. Bruno1,2

Quote:
Marine ecosystems are centrally important to the biology of the planet, yet a comprehensive understanding of how anthropogenic climate change is affecting them has been poorly developed. Recent studies indicate that rapidly rising greenhouse gas concentrations are driving ocean systems toward conditions not seen for millions of years, with an associated risk of fundamental and irreversible ecological transformation. The impacts of anthropogenic climate change so far include decreased ocean productivity, altered food web dynamics, reduced abundance of habitat-forming species, shifting species distributions, and a greater incidence of disease. Although there is considerable uncertainty about the spatial and temporal details, climate change is clearly and fundamentally altering ocean ecosystems. Further change will continue to create enormous challenges and costs for societies worldwide, particularly those in developing countries.

1 Ocean and Coasts Program, Global Change Institute, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia.
2 Department of Marine Sciences, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: oveh@uq.edu.au
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #2581 of 3039
10/28/10 at 10:48pm
Erosion of Lizard Diversity by Climate Change and Altered Thermal Niches
Science 14 May 2010:
Vol. 328. no. 5980, pp. 894 - 899
DOI: 10.1126/science.1184695

REPORTS
Barry Sinervo,1,15,* Fausto Méndez-de-la-Cruz,2 Donald B. Miles,3,15 Benoit Heulin,4 Elizabeth Bastiaans,1 Maricela Villagrán-Santa Cruz,5 Rafael Lara-Resendiz,2 Norberto MartÃ*nez-Méndez,2 Martha LucÃ*a Calderón-Espinosa,6 Rubi Nelsi Meza-Lázaro,2 Héctor Gadsden,7 Luciano Javier Avila,8 Mariana Morando,8 Ignacio J. De la Riva,9 Pedro Victoriano Sepulveda,10 Carlos Frederico Duarte Rocha,11 Nora IbargüengoytÃ*a,12 César Aguilar Puntriano,13 Manuel Massot,14 Virginie Lepetz,15, Tuula A. Oksanen,16 David G. Chapple,17 Aaron M. Bauer,18 William R. Branch,19 Jean Clobert,15 Jack W. Sites, Jr.20

Quote:
It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but [B]by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide], and species extinctions may reach 20%.[/B Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.

1 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, 95064, USA.
2 Laboratorio de HerpetologÃ*a, Instituto de BiologÃ*a, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, D.F., 04510, México.
3 Department of Biology, Ohio University, 131 Life Sciences Building, Athens, OH 45701, USA.
4 CNRS UMR 6553, Station Biologique, 35380 Paimpont, France.
5 Laboratorio de BiologÃ*a de la Reproducción Animal, Departamento de BiologÃ*a Comparada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, D.F., 04510, México.
6 Instituto de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Bogotá, Colombia.
7 Instituto de EcologÃ*a, A.C., Miguel de Cervantes No. 120 (CubÃ*culo 30C), Complejo Industrial, C.P. 31109, Chihuahua, México.
8 Centro Nacional Patagónico, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones CientÃ*ficas y Técnicas, Blvd. Brown 2915, U9120ACD, Puerto Madryn, Chubut, Argentina.
9 Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC, C/ José Gutiérrez, Abascal 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain.
10 Universidad de Concepción, Dpto. ZoologÃ*a, Casilla 160-C, Concepción, Chile.
11 Department of Ecology, Institute of Biology, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rua São Francisco Xavier 524, Maracanã 20550-019, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
12 Instituto de Investigación en Biodiversidad y Medio Ambiente (INIBIOMA), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones CientÃ*ficas y Técnicas, Centro Regional Universitario Bariloche, Universidad*Nacional del Comahue, Quintral 1250, San Carlos de Bariloche, RÃ*o Negro 8400, Argentina.
13 Departamento de HerpetologÃ*a, Museo de Historia Natural, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Av. Arenales 1256, Jesús MarÃ*a Apdo 14-0434, Lima 14, Perú.
14 Laboratoire Ecologie-Evolution, Université UPMC, CNRS UMR 7625, 7 quai Saint Bernard, 75005 Paris, France.
15 Station d'Ecologie Expérimentale du CNRS a Moulis USR 2936,*Moulis, 09200 Saint-Girons France.
16 Centre of Excellence in Evolutionary Research, Department of Biological and Environmental Science, Post Office Box 35, FI-40014, University of Jyväskylä, Finland.
17 School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia.
18 Department of Biology, Villanova University, 800 Lancaster Avenue, Villanova, PA 19085, USA.
19 Bayworld, Post Office Box i13147, Humewood 6013, South Africa.
20 Department of Biology and Bean Life Science Museum, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602, USA.
Present address: Laboratoire d'Etude Environnementales des Systèmes Anthropisés (LEESA), UFR Sciences, 2 Bd Lavoisier, 49045 Angers cedex 01, France.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: lizardrps@gmail.com


MORE


Global Biodiversity: Indicators of Recent Declines

Originally published in Science Express on 29 April 2010
Science 28 May 2010:
Vol. 328. no. 5982, pp. 1164 - 1168
DOI: 10.1126/science.1187512

REPORTS

Stuart H. M. Butchart,1,2,* Matt Walpole,1 Ben Collen,3 Arco van Strien,4 Jörn P. W. Scharlemann,1 Rosamunde E. A. Almond,1 Jonathan E. M. Baillie,3 Bastian Bomhard,1 Claire Brown,1 John Bruno,5 Kent E. Carpenter,6 Geneviève M. Carr,7, Janice Chanson,8 Anna M. Chenery,1 Jorge Csirke,9 Nick C. Davidson,10 Frank Dentener,11 Matt Foster,12 Alessandro Galli,13 James N. Galloway,14 Piero Genovesi,15 Richard D. Gregory,16 Marc Hockings,17 Valerie Kapos,1,18 Jean-Francois Lamarque,19 Fiona Leverington,17 Jonathan Loh,20 Melodie A. McGeoch,21 Louise McRae,3 Anahit Minasyan,22 Monica Hernández Morcillo,1 Thomasina E. E. Oldfield,23 Daniel Pauly,24 Suhel Quader,25 Carmen Revenga,26 John R. Sauer,27 Benjamin Skolnik,28 Dian Spear,29 Damon Stanwell-Smith,1 Simon N. Stuart,1,12,30,31 Andy Symes,2 Megan Tierney,1 Tristan D. Tyrrell,1 Jean-Christophe Vié,32 Reg Watson24

Quote:
In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. We compiled 31 indicators to report on progress toward this target. Most indicators of the state of biodiversity (covering species population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community composition) showed declines, with no significant recent reductions in rate, whereas indicators of pressures on biodiversity (including resource consumption, invasive alien species, nitrogen pollution, overexploitation, and climate change impacts) showed increases. Despite some local successes and increasing responses (including extent and biodiversity coverage of protected areas, sustainable forest management, policy responses to invasive alien species, and biodiversity-related aid), the rate of biodiversity loss does not appear to be slowing.

1 United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.
2 BirdLife International, Wellbrook Court, Cambridge CB3 0NA, UK.
3 Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, RegentÂs Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.
4 Statistics Netherlands, Post Office Box 24500, The Hague, 2490 HA, Netherlands.
5 Department of Marine Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 340 Chapman Hall, CB 3300, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA.
6 International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and Conservation International Global Marine Species Assessment, Biological Sciences, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529, USA.
7 United Nations Environment Programme, Global Environment Monitoring SystemÂWater, c/o National Water Research Institute, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, Ontario L7R 4A6, Canada.
8 IUCN Species Survival Commission, Conservation International, Biodiversity Assessment Unit, c/o Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500, Arlington, VA 22202, USA.
9 Fisheries and Aquaculture Management Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla 00153, Rome, Italy.
10 Secretariat of the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, Rue Mauverney 28, 1196 Gland, Switzerland.
11 European Commission Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, TP290, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.
12 Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500, Arlington, VA 22202, USA.
13 Global Footprint Network, 312 Clay Street, Suite 300, Oakland, CA 94607Â3510, USA.
14 Environmental Sciences Department, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903, USA.
15 Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, Via Curtatone 3, I-00185 Rome, Italy.
16 Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy SG19 2DL, UK, and European Bird Census Council.
17 School of Integrative Systems, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4067, Australia.
18 Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.
19 National Center for Atmospheric Research, 3450 Mitchell Lane, Boulder, CO 80301, USA.
20 World Wildlife Fund (WWF) International, 1196 Gland, Switzerland.
21 South African National Parks, Centre for Invasion Biology and Global Invasive Species Programme, Post Office Box 216, Steenberg 7947, South Africa.
22 United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, 7 place de Fontenoy, 75352 Paris, France.
23 TRAFFIC International, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.
24 Sea Around Us Project, Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T1Z4, Canada.
25 National Centre for Biological Sciences, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, GKVK Campus, Bellary Road, Bangalore 560 065, India.
26 The Nature Conservancy, 4245 North Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 22203, USA.
27 U.S. Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, 12100 Beech Forest Road, Laurel, MD 20708Â4039, USA.
28 American Bird Conservancy, 1731 Connecticut Avenue, N.W., 3rd Floor, Washington, DC 20009, USA.
29 Centre for Invasion Biology, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland 7602, South Africa.
30 IUCN Species Survival Commission, Department of Biology and Biochemistry, University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, UK.
31 Al Ain Wildlife Park and Resort, Post Office Box 45553, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
32 IUCN, Rue Mauverney 28, 1196 Gland, Switzerland.
Present address: Indian and Northern Affairs Canada, 15 Eddy, Gatineau QC K1A 0H4, Canada.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: stuart.butchart@birdlife.org
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #2582 of 3039
10/29/10 at 8:20pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

APS responds! Deconstructing the APS response to Dr. Hal Lewis resignation

Regarding the resignation of Dr. Hal Lewis:

Be Critical of*Critics

Quote:
Of all the inane arguments made against the phenomenon of anthropogenic global climate change, the strangest in my opinion are the conspiracy theories.

Yes, scientific fraud does happen, but on the scale of one author, not an entire multi-disciplinary field stretching back for over a century. Imagine the scale of fabrication that would be necessary for this to be true, and the amount of journal editors, expert reviewers, and students who would have to be in on the conspiracy. Scientists are just not that organized.

Quote:
Incredibly, even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a highly credible organization that painstakingly summarizes the scientific literature on climate change is comprised of volunteer scientists. Even the chair, Rajendra Pachauri, doesnt receive a cent for his work with the IPCC.

Quote:
Of course, the prospect of a global warming fraud isnt impossible. Nothing is. But remember, fraud is a criminal charge, and should not be thrown around lightly. Climate scientists, just like anyone else, have the right to be presumed innocent until proven guilty. They shouldnt have to endure this endless harassment of being publicly labelled as frauds without evidence.

Heres an example, from a retired American physics prof named Harold Lewis. He recently resigned from the American Physical Society because he didnt think his views on climate change were being taken into account in the societys statement. His resignation letter reads almost like satire:

Quote:
It is of course, the global warming scam, with the (literally) trillions of dollars driving it, that has corrupted so many scientists, and has carried APS before it like a rogue wave. It is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist. Anyone who has the faintest doubt that this is so should force himself to read the ClimateGate documents, which lay it bareI dont believe that any real physicist, nay scientist, can read that stuff without revulsion. I would almost make that revulsion a definition of the word scientist.

The scientists involved in ClimateGate, the scandal that wasnt, have been cleared by five independent investigations to date. While some reasonable issues about data archival and sharing have been raised, absolutely no science was compromised by the contents of the stolen private correspondence. For Lewis to say otherwise and fail to provide evidence for this potentially libelous accusation is unduly irresponsible.

Quote:
Lets see what else Harry Lewis has to say:

Quote:
In the interim the ClimateGate scandal broke into the news, and the machinations of the principal alarmists were revealed to the world. It was a fraud on a scale I have never seen, and I lack the words to describe its enormity. Effect on the APS position: none. None at all.

And rightly so. Even if, for the sake of argument, the CRU emails had discredited all of the research groups data and publications, their conclusions about the current planetary warming have been independently replicated by multiple land- and satellite- based databases. In the United States alone, there is NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, RSS, and UAH. All show the same global warming that CRU detected. Some, due to complexities in the measurement of Arctic temperatures, show even more.

The scientific literature fully supports the general premise of the APS statement on climate change: the world is warming, humans are causing it, and unless we reduce carbon emissions quickly and dramatically, its going to be bad. No alternative explanation for the situation has been able to withstand the scrutiny of peer-review.

Science is about looking at all sides of an issue, but its not a free-for-all. If someone cant back up a claim, they dont have an inherent right to get it published regardless. Unfortunately, in the Internet age, that doesnt matter if what theyre looking for is media attention, not scientific accountability.....

The Christian Science Monitor jumps the shark with pre-debunked, anti-science op-ed by Anthony Watts on Harold Lewiss resignation from APS

Quote:
One of the many differences between science and religion is that science is almost completely unconcerned with what any individual scientist believes, no matter how famous.* Religions, of course, are typically built around famous individuals, like, say, Mary Baker Eddy, and what they believe.* Sadly, these days, journalism even at once-great newspapers* also appear to care more what one individual believes than what scientific observation and analysis actually tells us.

Last week I wrote about how a physicist named Hal Lewis who doesnt know the first thing about climate science resigned from the American Physical Society because he doesnt know the first thing about climate science.* I debunked the laughable and unintentionally ironic post by former television meteorologist Anthony Watts comparing Lewiss words of resignation to a letter on the scale of Martin Luther, nailing his 95 theses to the Wittenburg church door.

Only anti-science disinformers believe scientific views are no different from religious ones, that a letter from a non-climate-scientist (particularly one who hasnt bothered to learn the first thing about climate science or talk to actual climate scientists) would carry any weight at all, let alone lead to a major new science religion of Lewisism (Wattsism?), since, of course, thats not how science works.

I never would have imagined in a hundred years, though, that the once respected Christian Science Monitor would publish a piece by Wattsthat opens with this pure anti-science headline and subhead (and picture of Martin Luther)........

Quote:
.What makes the publication of this op-ed so absurd is that the American Physical Society had already officially responded to and debunked Lewis:

There is no truth to Dr. Lewis assertion that APS policy statements are driven by financial gain. To the contrary, as a membership organization of more than 48,000 physicists, APS adheres to rigorous ethical standards in developing its statements. The Society is open to review of its statements if members petition the APS Council the Societys democratically elected governing body to do so.

Dr. Lewis specific charge that APS as an organization is benefitting financially from climate change funding is equally false. Neither the operating officers nor the elected leaders of the Society have a monetary stake in such funding. Moreover, relatively few APS members conduct climate change research, and therefore the vast majority of the Societys members derive no personal benefit from such research support.

On the matter of global climate change, APS notes that virtually all reputable scientists agree with the following observations:
Quote:
Carbon dioxide is increasing in the atmosphere due to human activity;

Carbon dioxide is an excellent infrared absorber, and therefore, its increasing presence in the atmosphere contributes to global warming; and

The dwell time of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is hundreds of years.



On these matters, APS judges the science to be quite clear. However, APS continues to recognize that climate models are far from adequate, and the extent of global warming and climatic disruptions produced by sustained increases in atmospheric carbon loading remain uncertain. In light of the significant settled aspects of the science, APS totally rejects Dr. Lewis claim that global warming is a scam and a pseudoscientific fraud.

Additionally, APS notes that it has taken extraordinary steps to solicit opinions from its membership on climate change. After receiving significant commentary from APS members, the Societys Panel on Public Affairs finalized an addendum to the APS climate change statement reaffirming the significance of the issue. The APS Council overwhelmingly endorsed the reaffirmation.

You can read the 2007 APS statement on climate change here (plus a 2010 explication of it).* It is rather mild, as such statements go:

Quote:
Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the Earths climate. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide as well as methane, nitrous oxide and other gases. They are emitted from fossil fuel combustion and a range of industrial and agricultural processes.

Quote:
The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earths physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.

Quote:
Because the complexity of the climate makes accurate prediction difficult, the APS urges an enhanced effort to understand the effects of human activity on the Earths climate, and to provide the technological options for meeting the climate challenge in the near and longer terms. The APS also urges governments, universities, national laboratories and its membership to support policies and actions that will reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.

I had written that Lewiss Inhofe-esque statement this is the greatest and most successful pseudo-scientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist, accuses the scientific community broadly defined of conspiring in deliberate fraud and not just the community of climate scientists, but the leading National Academies of Science around the world (including ours) and the American Geophysical Union, an organization of geophysicists that consists of more than 45,000 members and the American Meteorological Association and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (see Yet more scientists call for deep GHG cuts).* Such a statement accuses all of the member governments of the IPCC, including ours, of participating in that conspiracy, since they all sign off on the Assessment Reports word for word. And it accuses all of the leading scientific journals of being in on this fraud, since the IPCC reports are primarily a review and synthesis of the published scientific literature.

A. Siegel of GetEnergySmartNow, who has a great post on this embarrassing episode, asks:

Quote:
Does the CSM editorial board really stand with those accusing so many scientists, from so many fields, from so many nations of engaging in systematic fraud?

He also quotes a commenter, Eric Grimsrud, Emeritus Professor of Chemistry, Montana State University, who writes:

Quote:
We have here an example of a perfect storm of conditions on the waves of which the deniers of CO2s warming effects will ride as hard as they can. The three elements that created this storm are the reporter Mr. Watt, who is in the deniers camp, Dr. Lewis, who was a respected elderly physicist but not in the field of climate science and the Christian Science Monitor, whose poor judgement in running this story surprises me.

Quote:
While Ill not waste time trying to understand the motives of the first two elements, I suspect that the CSM indulged in the time-honored newspaper inclination to give equal attention of both sides of all issues. Unlike politics or economics, however, in science there comes a point when there are no longer equally valid different views of a given topic. Mother Nature tends to do things either one way or the other. Just as we now know that the Earth is not flat, we also know that it is being overheated by the excess CO2 we are putting into its atmo[s]phere.

At DotEarth, blogger Andy Revkin notes that Lewis himself embraced this pseudo-scientific fraud two decades ago in his book, Technological Risk:



Theres no law against changing ones views, of course, but it is doubly bizarre to accuse the American Physical Society and indeed the entire scientific community of pseudo-scientific fraud for holding a view he himself once held (on far, far weaker scientific evidence at the time, it must be added).

Lewiss letter was devoid of any actual critique of climate science, but he offers some of his amazingly uninformed statements on the subject here.* Eli Rabett debunked the whole thing here.* Lewis asserted nobody doubts that CO2 in the atmosphere has been increasing for the better part of a century, but the disobedient temperature seems not to care very much, whereas Rabett notes among other things, The temperatures are tracking the CO2 forcing just fine.* Lewis bizarrely asserts, people and plants die from cold, not warmth.* Tell that to the folks in Moscow this summer or Europe in the summer of 2003.

Lewis states:

Quote:
I know of nobody who denies that the Earth has been warming for thousands of years without our help

This line tells you the author not only doesnt follow the scientific literature, but that he doesnt actually associate with or talk to anybody who does.

As Rabett explained, Well, actually most people who have a clue think that without our contributions the surface would be cooling a bit right now due to the Milankovitch cycles which have reached and passed the warm peak.* Indeed, he points us to the 1980 Science article, Modeling the Climatic Response to Orbital Variations, which concludes Ignoring anthropogenic and other possible sources of variation acting at frequencies higher than one cycle per 19,000 years, this model predicts that the long-term cooling trend which began some 6000 years ago will continue for the next 23,000 years.

More recent money-grubbing conspirators include those folks at the National Center for Atmospheric Research:

Quote:
Arctic temperatures in the 1990s reached their warmest level of any decade in at least 2,000 years, new research indicates. The study, which incorporates geologic records and computer simulations, provides new evidence that the Arctic would be cooling if not for greenhouse gas emissions that are overpowering natural climate patterns.

But Lewis knows not a single person who denies the earth has been warming for thousands of years.

Let me end where I began.* Watts says of Lewis, hes no lightweight, and hes well respected in the field of physics.* So what?* Einstein himself is well known for rejecting some of the claims of quantum mechanics even though Einstein actually helped establish some of the foundations of quantum mechanics.** So what?* It turned out Einsteins intuition was wrong.** Thats why science isnt built around what individual scientists believe, no matter how famous.* In this case, Lewis isnt even a climate scientist.

Since I haven't heard from jg, I thought that I'd go back and tidy up a few things.

無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #2583 of 3039
10/29/10 at 8:33pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

Update: UN Biodiversity Report pushes fear and new taxes: 'It isn't a scientific body, it exists to influence policymakers -- it looks at though it is being presented by fear-mongering amateurs'

Update: UN Biodiversity report 'has multiple errors in first chapter alone' (It really is 'IPCC like')

Move over, global warming: 'Biodiversity is next...Elite environmentalists and global- ists appear to be preparing to dump global warming as their cause celebre'

Paper: Global Warming Improves Biodiversity: 'World likely far less diverse today than it was tens of millions of years ago, when Earth' was like the modern tropics

Biodiversity boomed during global warming



THESE ARE MORE LIKE THIS:



TRY THIS FOR YOUR SOURCE:

Skeptic Arguments and What the Science Says

無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #2584 of 3039
10/29/10 at 8:35pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

Link wars!

AND YOU'RE LOOSING

無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #2585 of 3039
10/30/10 at 8:49am
Carbon emissions increasing acidity in Alaskan seas
By Yereth Rosen

Quote:
For years, scientists have presented mounting evidence that carbon dioxide emissions are contributing to a change in global climate raising temperatures, melting polar ice, and perhaps fueling extreme weather. For Dr. Mathis, it is clear that these emissions are also having an effect beneath the waves.

In short, they are turning seawater more acidic. Ocean acidification is often called the twin of climate change. Just as increased carbon in the atmosphere triggers effects that change the climate, increased carbon in the atmosphere when absorbed by the oceans triggers acidification in the water.

At this point, the effects are subtle a small dip in the waters' pH balance, and a gradual depletion of the minerals that make Alaskan waters so productive for sea life. Indeed, the very characteristics that help make Alaskan waters so rich the cold temperatures that hold more carbon and shallow waters saturated with nutrients also make them more susceptible to acidification, experts say.

As with climate change which has already thawed permafrost, melted sea ice, and shrunk glaciers in Alaska carbon-caused ocean acidification will likely hit home here first.

"Waters off Alaska are sort of preconditioned to become more acidified," says Mathis, a University of Alaska, Fairbanks, oceanographer.

Quote:
During the past two centuries, the oceans have absorbed one-quarter of the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere by human activities, according to the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). While that has helped to lessen the impact of carbon dioxide emissions on the climate, it has been at a cost. This carbon dioxide - the same gas that makes fizzy beverages corrosive is altering the oceans' alkaline-acid balance, known as pH.

The average pH levels in the world's oceans have dropped from 8.21 at the start of the Industrial Age (in the late 18th century) to an average 8.1 on the 1-to-14 scale, according to the IPCC. Changes will be more dramatic in coming years, the IPCC warns. Average pH levels are expected to decrease by as much as 0.4 by the end of the century, continuing the move in the acidic direction, the committee says.

Quote:
But his research has found that king crabs raised in incrementally more acidic water grow shells more slowly and have higher mortality rates. What will happen, he suggests, is that animals dependent on calcium carbonate will be more stressed and have greater difficulty with development and reproduction, and might even migrate away. Pteropods are particularly vulnerable, he says. [Editor's note: Pteropods was misspelled in the original version.]

"That's going to impact whole food chains. Maybe it already is. We just don't know," he says.
For commercial fishermen in Alaska, who harvest more than half the nation's seafood catch, the specter of acidification is worrying.

"If you really care about fish not only to make money but also to eat and feed people it's of grave concern," says Alan Parks of nearby Homer, who has been fishing commercially for three decades and also works for the environmentally minded Alaska Marine Conservation Council.

無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #2586 of 3039
10/30/10 at 9:39am
Drought strikes the Amazon rainforest again
Jeff Tollefson

Quote:
Five years ago, vast areas of the Amazon were hammered by a historic drought, which destroyed trees, impacted the livelihoods of fishermen and others who are dependent on the river and presented scientists with what was seen as a rare opportunity to investigate the world's largest rainforest in extreme distress. Drought has now struck again, reinforcing fears that the invisible hand of climate change may be involved. Nature takes a closer look.

How does the current drought compare with the one in 2005?

So far it seems the drought is similar in size, although some features vary.... [T]he drought appears to be broader in scope but slightly less intense than 2005. The current drought has affected a large area covering the northwest, central and southwest Amazon, including parts of Columbia, Peru and northern Bolivia. Fewer clouds and less rain also translate into higher temperatures, and Aragao says that the maximum temperatures in September are 1 °C higher than 2005, and 23 °C higher than average. Water levels in the primary tributary Rio Negro or Black River are at historic lows.

Although deforestation in Brazil has decreased, there have been reports of increased fire activity. Is that related to the drought?

Yes. Forest fires are generally associated with deforestation, but drought amplifies the impact of fires that are set in order to clear land.

Preliminary data for 2010 indicate that deforestation has fallen by some 85% compared with its recent peak in 2004. .

Despite that remarkable news, Aragao says that fire activity has increased to about 80% of the 2005 levels. Natural fires are a rare occurrence in the Amazon, but during a drought, fires that are set to clear smaller plots are more likely to escape into the forest.

Is climate change to blame for the drought?

It is hard to pinpoint a culprit, but both the 2005 and the 2010 droughts align well with longer-term projections by some climate modellers for a drying out of the Amazon due to climate change. Much of the Amazon normally experiences a dry season that begins in around July or August and continues to September or October. Periodic droughts are also associated with El Niño a periodic warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean but there are some indications that the 2005 and 2010 droughts could be associated with warmer surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean north of the equator, which effectively pull the trade winds and all of the moisture they carry to the north. Scientists described the 2005 drought as a once-in-a-century phenomenon. But clearly it wasn't.

What kind of impact did the 2005 drought have?

Five years on, remote-sensing scientists are still debating that question with surprising intensity.A controversial 2007 study in Science found that the Amazon 'greened up' in 2005, suggesting that the rainforest was more resilient than previously believed. But other researchers have looked at the same data and failed to detect any such greening see 'Amazon drought raises research doubts'. Some go as far as to say that the satellite data aren't good enough to answer the question at all.....

Could the 2010 drought help to answer those questions?

It will certainly give scientists another opportunity to pore over the various ground and satellite data, and this time they will have an even better idea what to look for. It's not clear how the debate over satellite data will play out. As the recent PNAS paper indicates, much work remains to be done to explain why satellites see green if in fact they do and assess the broader impacts of drought on carbon storage. Having a second set of data to analyse certainly won't hurt.*

References

Saleska, S. R., Didan, K., Huete, A. R. & da Rocha, H. R. Science 318, 612 (2007).

Samanta, A. et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L05401 (2010).

Phillips, O. L. et al. Science 323, 1344- 1347 (2009).

Brando, P. M. et al. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA advance online publication doi:10.1073/pnas.0908741107 (2010).

無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #2587 of 3039
10/30/10 at 10:23am
Earth's green carbon sink on the wane
Rhiannon Smith

Quote:
The capacity of plants to act as a carbon sink could be on the decline.

As global temperatures have risen in recent decades, the amount of atmospheric carbon being converted into plant biomass has increased in step. However, in a paper published today in Science, ecologists Maosheng Zhao and Steve Running at the University of Montana in Missoula report a surprising reversal of this trend over the last decade, despite its having been the warmest on record1.

In 2003, a study on which Running was a co-author, led by Ramakrishna Nemani, who is also at the University of Montana, reported an increase in plant productivity between 1982 and 1999. The researchers attributed that trend to a warmer climate and increased solar radiation2. Zhao and Running expected to find a similar increase for 2000-2009 an expectation that was not met.

Along with the oceans, plants are doing us a great service by taking up about half of all fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions from the atmosphere, says Running. "This is the first indication that it might be slipping."

Quote:
The researchers say that this fall in global carbon uptake can be attributed to regional droughts, such as the severe drought in the Amazon in 2005, and a general drying trend in the Southern Hemisphere that has worsened with global warming.

Why the Northern and Southern Hemispheres have responded differently to warmer climates and increased drought is unclear. Running suggests that the variations could be attributable to the different constraints faced by plants on opposite sides of the Equator. In the Northern Hemisphere, the limiting factor for plant growth tends to be temperature and the length of the growing season both of which have increased with global warming. The main limitation on plant growth in the Southern Hemisphere, meanwhile, is water availability which is why droughts have had a greater impact there.

Quote:
Bill Munger, an ecologist at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is critical of the methods used in the paper. "The type of modelling they used is good at highlighting spatial patterns in vegetation processes, but very dependent on assumed influence of moisture and temperature," he says.

Running agrees that they had to make some assumptions. "I fully acknowledge that when you're making global-level calculations you're seeing only a very small part of the activity of the ecosystem and inferring the rest," he says.

"Until we see another 1020 years of data, it would be premature to guarantee that this is a permanent trend, but it certainly means that we'd better be watching this really carefully," he adds.

References

1. Zhao, M. & Running, S. W. Science 329, 940-943 (2010)

2. Nemani, R. R. et al. Science 300, 1560-1563 (2003)

無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #2588 of 3039
10/31/10 at 8:33am
Big Partisan Gap on Climate Change Is Widened by Tea Partiers

Quote:
The partisan divide over alternative energy grew the past two years, according to a new poll from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.

Little Change in Opinions about Global Warming

Quote:
Increasing Partisan Divide on Energy Policies

Views about the existence and causes of global warming have changed little over the past year. A new Pew Research Center poll finds that 59% of adults say there is solid evidence that the earths average temperature has been getting warmer over the past few decades. In October 2009, 57% said this.

Roughly a third (34%) say that global warming is occurring mostly because of human activity, such as the burning of fossil fuels, which also is little changed from last year (36%).


Fewer Americans See Solid Evidence of Global Warming

Quote:
Modest Support for "Cap and Trade" Policy

There has been a sharp decline over the past year in the percentage of Americans who say there is solid evidence that global temperatures are rising. And fewer also see global warming as a very serious problem 35% say that today, down from 44% in April 2008.


無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #2589 of 3039
10/31/10 at 8:40am
Ten Consecutive Post Since 10/28/2010----No Responses---Guess It's Time To Give It A Rest

無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #2590 of 3039
11/4/10 at 7:58am
Thread Starter 
Declaring victory before the battle is over, eh? Go right ahead. I'm not going away. And neither are those who continue to question the status quo...unless our rights to do so are forcibly removed from us.

James Cameron and Google CEO: Questioning Warming Science is “Criminal”

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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post #2591 of 3039
11/4/10 at 8:09am
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

Declaring victory before the battle is over, eh? Go right ahead. I'm not going away. And neither are those who continue to question the status quo...unless our rights to do so are forcibly removed from us.

Welcome back jg. The battle is not over, never believed that for a moment, however was worrying that this thread was about to go to page 2, then page 3..........

無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #2592 of 3039
11/4/10 at 8:14am
Thread Starter 
I was in Orlando on business for the past 7 days. I had access to the Internet, but was extremely busy and had no time or energy to put into posting. I'll soon be sharing some experiences and insights from my trip that are related to this very topic. But I'm spending some time with my family today.

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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post #2593 of 3039
11/4/10 at 8:29am
California voters rejected Proposition 23 that, if passed would have undone California's Climate Change Law.

California Proposition 23 (2010)

Quote:
Proposition 23, which would have suspended AB 32, the "Global Warming Act of 2006", was on the November 2, 2010 ballot in California as an initiated state statute, where it was defeated.[1]
AB 32, the "Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006", was passed by the California State Legislature and signed by Arnold Schwarzenegger.[2] [3] Proposition 23, if enacted by voters, would have frozen the provisions of AB 32 until California's unemployment rate drops to 5.5% or below for four consecutive quarters. California's unemployment rate, which currently hovers around 12%, has been at 5.5% or below for four consecutive quarters just three times since 1980.[4]
AB 32 requires that greenhouse gas emission levels in the state be cut to 1990 levels by 2020. The process of cutting greenhouse gas emissions in the state is slated under AB 32 to begin in 2012.[5]

Greentech Vote Victories!: Prop 23 Defeated, Brown in as Governor
By Katie Fehrenbacher at Earth2Tech
Wed Nov 3, 2010 11:36am EDT

Quote:
California voters on election day on Tuesday handed victories to a crucial greentech-related measure, and also voted in a handful of candidates with strong backgrounds of support for the greentech industry. As expected, voters rejected Proposition 23, which would have basically suspended AB 32 Californias climate change law


Prop 23's Regional Repercussions
Submitted by Eileen Claussen on Thu, 10/28/2010 - 10:32

Quote:
As others have pointed out in the discussion of Californias Proposition 23, which would suspend the landmark climate law (AB32), passage would have wide-ranging implications for both the state itself and the national debate on comprehensive climate and energy policy in the U.S. These concerns for both California- and national-level climate action are valid by creating a policy environment of extreme uncertainty, Prop 23 threatens to freeze the currently expanding investment in clean technology in the state. It is also arguably the new battleground on comprehensive climate legislation in the U.S., given the current state of affairs in the U.S. Congress.

無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
post #2594 of 3039
11/4/10 at 10:22am
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

I was in Orlando on business for the past 7 days. I had access to the Internet, but was extremely busy and had no time or energy to put into posting. I'll soon be sharing some experiences and insights from my trip that are related to this very topic. But I'm spending some time with my family today.

One thing that we agree on that time spent with the family is important. Have a good day with them, FT.
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
post #2595 of 3039
11/4/10 at 10:33am
Global warming, let's take this decade to prepare

Quote:
A key challenge facing climate change policy-makers is to balance the extensive uncertainty about the dangers of climate change--which suggests postponing costly action until more is known--against the risk that delay may constrain future options. The current policy debate asks whether or not developed nations should commit to specific targets and timetables to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases. The authors argue that instead the most important near-term policy responses to the potential threat of climate change are research and development for emission-reducing technologies, institutional reforms, and technical aid to developing countries, all designed to facilitate large future worldwide reductions of greenhouse gas emissions if such reductions prove necessary.
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
post #2596 of 3039
11/4/10 at 12:16pm
Climate change is main barrier to development - United Nations
By Louise Gray, Environment Correspondent
Published: 6:31PM GMT 04 Nov 2010

Quote:
...But this rapid development is in danger of reversing because of the rise of global temperatures, that could cause an increase in natural disasters, especially in the poor world where countries are ill-equipped to cope.

Highlighting the failure of last year's UN climate summit in Copenhagen, the report called for renewed efforts to make sure that talks in Cancun, Mexico next month can tackle global warming and protect the environment.

The Real Wealth of Nations report said that unsustainable patterns of consumption and production are the biggest challenge to ending poverty....

And the problem will get worse with the world population expected to hit nine billion by 2050 and increasing demand from the developing world for meat, cars and other carbon intensive goods.

Ultimately the growth in consumption and destruction of carbon sinks like rainforests fuel global temperature rise that could cause floods and droughts.

The UN said that on one estimate, the adverse effects of climate change on grain yields would push prices up, more than doubling the price of wheat. In a worst case scenario, the report added, by 2050 per capita consumption of cereals would fall by a fifth, leaving 25 million additional children malnourished, with South Asia the worst affected.

Unless more is done to reduce carbon emissions, the environment will become uninhabitable in many parts of the world, the report warned.

Quote:
The continuing reliance on fossil fuels is threatening irreparable damage to our environment and to the human development of future generations," said the report.

Quote:
"These developments pose serious questions about the long run feasibility of the world's current production and consumption patterns."

Overall, the UN said poor countries had been closing the human development gap with rich countries over the past two decades, particularly in health and education. The countries reporting the slowest progress were those in sub-Saharan Africa struck by the HIV epidemic and parts of the former Soviet Union suffering increased adult mortality.

I would have included pictures, but someone in a different thread told me that I included too many in my post.
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
post #2597 of 3039
11/4/10 at 12:59pm
  • BR
  • Justified Arrogance
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

Declaring victory before the battle is over, eh? Go right ahead. I'm not going away. And neither are those who continue to question the status quo...unless our rights to do so are forcibly removed from us.

James Cameron and Google CEO: Questioning Warming Science is Criminal

Dude, you don't get to be religious AND question the status quo.

 

“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
Reply

 

“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
Reply
post #2598 of 3039
11/4/10 at 1:07pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

Declaring victory before the battle is over, eh? Go right ahead. I'm not going away. And neither are those who continue to question the status quo...unless our rights to do so are forcibly removed from us.

James Cameron and Google CEO: Questioning Warming Science is Criminal

Now that's not fair, editing your post after I read it and moved on, now I will have to read your link.
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
post #2599 of 3039
11/4/10 at 1:58pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

James Cameron and Google CEO: Questioning Warming Science is Criminal

Another top notched Scientific Website, jg?

Interesting article, but not informative and it does not offer any evidence that AGW is or isn't happening.

Schmidt and Cameron are entitled to their own opinions, however they are definitely wrong 'that people who question the science of anthropogenic global warming are, in their opinions, 'criminal.' Don't think that the deniers are violating any criminal codes.

無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
Reply
post #2600 of 3039
11/5/10 at 9:40am
Thread Starter 
I have the honor of being a staff member of The League for Innovation in the Community College, an international non-profit organization dedicated to catalyzing the community college movement.

This past week, I traveled to Orlando to help run a major conference called STEMtech, which centered around helping educators, industry leaders and others discuss increasing student access into and success in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) majors and careers with a special focus on exploring the strategic use of information technology to better serve students, campuses, and communities.

The opening keynote speaker was Ed Begley, Jr. - actor and environmental activist - and I was fortunate enough to be able to hear his speech (from behind the stage as a member of the conference technical staff).

His speaking style was low-key, anecdotal, and quite amiable. Listening to him speak, I could feel the passion Mr. Begley has for living a "green" life. I sensed nothing deceptive or false about him - quite the opposite. He's very genuine and sincere.

He and I disagree on the particulars of climate change and what is driving it. But one thing we agree on 100% is that it should make sense - and cents - to "go green".

In his keynote, he barely touched on the subject of climate change - it was irrelevant to the main theme of his speech, which is that we all can and should do more to "reduce, reuse, and recycle" within our own financial means. I agree with that approach 100%.

He heartily supports government incentives and subsidies promoting green technologies and wants more. While I am opposed to the government meddling in the free market to that extent, Begley mentioned nothing about governments forcing people to "go green" against their will.

He said most of us want to protect and preserve our environment and natural resources, decrease dependence on foreign oil, and save money. And we can all do something now, no matter how small, to help achieve those goals.

But he stressed the importance of doing so within your financial means, and only when it makes sense. For example, why go out and buy solar panels for your home if your appliances, home insulation, etc. are not as energy efficient as they could be?

Begley has a couple of books out, one of which is called "Ed Begley, Jr.'s Guide to Sustainable Living". I purchased a copy and Mr. Begley was gracious enough to sign it for me.

It is replete with practical, cost-effective solutions for those looking to do more with less. I'm all for that, and I intend to implement whatever solutions make sense for my particular situation.

While the issue of anthropogenic climate change is an extremely polarizing one - especially when talking about the extent of government involvement in it - I think we can all agree that doing what we can within our means to live a more sustainable life should makes sense - and cents!

(Originally published on Ego Anthem...my blog!)

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

Reply
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