Climategate - Page 71

September 2008 followed 2007 as the second sequential year with an extreme summer Arctic sea ice extent minimum. Although such a sea ice loss was not indicated until much later in the century in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th Assessment Report, many models show an accelerating decline in the summer minimum sea ice extent during the 21st century. Using the observed 2007/2008 September sea ice extents as a starting point, we predict an expected value for a nearly sea ice free Arctic in September by the year 2037. The first quartile of the distribution for the timing of September sea ice loss will be reached by 2028. Our analysis is based on projections from six IPCC models, selected subject to an observational constraints. Uncertainty in the timing of a sea ice free Arctic in September is determined based on both within‐model contributions from natural variability and between‐model differences.

Recent loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic is directly connected to shifts in northern wind patterns in the following autumn, which has the potential of altering the heat budget at the cold end of the global heat engine. With continuing loss of summer sea ice to less than 20% of its climatological mean over the next decades, we anticipate increased modification of atmospheric circulation patterns. While a shift to a more meridional atmospheric climate pattern, the Arctic Dipole (AD), over the last decade contributed to recent reductions in summer Arctic sea ice extent, the increase in late summer open water area is, in turn, directly contributing to a modification of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns through the additional heat stored in the Arctic Ocean and released to the atmosphere during the autumn season. Extensive regions in the Arctic during late autumn beginning in 2002 have surface air temperature anomalies of greater than 3°C and temperature anomalies above 850 hPa of 1°C. These temperatures contribute to an increase in the 1000500 hPa thickness field in every recent year with reduced sea ice cover. While gradients in this thickness field can be considered a baroclinic contribution to the flow field from loss of sea ice, atmospheric circulation also has a more variable barotropic contribution. Thus, reduction in sea ice has a direct connection to increased thickness fields in every year, but not necessarily to the sea level pressure (SLP) fields. Compositing wind fields for late autumn 20022008 helps to highlight the baroclinic contribution; for the years with diminished sea ice cover there were composite anomalous tropospheric easterly winds of ∼1.4 m s1, relative to climatological easterly winds near the surface and upper tropospheric westerlies of ∼3 m s1. Loss of summer sea ice is supported by decadal shifts in atmospheric climate patterns. A persistent positive Arctic Oscillation pattern in late autumn (OND) during 19881994 and in winter (JFM) during 19891997 shifted to more interannual variability in the following years. An anomalous meridional wind pattern with high SLP on the North American side of the Arcticthe AD pattern, shifted from primarily small interannual variability to a persistent phase during spring (AMJ) beginning in 1997 (except for 2006) and extending to summer (JAS) beginning in 2005.

Sea level is rising as the world ocean warms and ice caps and glaciers melt. Published estimates based on data from satellite altimeters, beginning in late 1992, suggest that global mean sea level has been rising on the order of 3 mm yr−1. Local processes, including ocean currents and land motions due to a variety of causes, modulate the global signal spatially and temporally. These local signals can be much larger than the global signal, and especially so on annual or shorter time scales.
Even increases on the order of 10 cm in sea level can amplify the already devastating losses that occur when a hurricane driven storm surge coincides with an astronomical high tide. To quantify the sensitivity of property risk to increasing sea level, we have calculated the change in expected annual losses to property along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. First, we extrapolate observed trends in sea level rise from tide gauges to the year 2030, and interpolate these changes to all coastal locations. Then we use a 10,000 year catalog of simulated hurricanes to define critical wind parameters for each event. These wind parameters then drive a parametric time-evolving storm surge model that accounts for bathymetry, coastal geometry, surface roughness, and the phase of the astronomical tide. The impact of the maximum storm surge height on a comprehensive inventory of commercial and residential property is then calculated, using engineering models that take into account the characteristics of the full range of construction types.
Average annual losses projected to the year 2030 are presented for regions and key states and are normalized by aggregate property value on a zip code by zip code basis. Comparisons to the results of a control run reflecting the risk today quantify the change in risk per dollar of property on a percentage basis. Increases in expected losses, due to the effect of sea level rise alone vary by region, with increases of 20% or more common. Further sensitivity tests quantify the impact on the risk of sea level rise plus additional factors, such as changes in hurricane frequency and intensity as a result of rising sea surface temperatures.

...In a paper published this week in PLoS ONE1, the researchers report the most severe coral bleaching ever recorded in the Caribbean: more than 80% of the corals surveyed were bleached, and at many sites more than 40% died. "Severe, widespread bleaching spells trouble for tropical marine ecosystems in general," says Eakin.....

"There is some evidence that local factors and other climate-scale factors, such as ocean acidification, sea-level rise and changes in storm intensity, may influence bleaching sensitivity," he says. "But temperature is the big driver."......

Eakin is concerned that 2010 has been particularly devastating for coral. Bleaching has been observed in every ocean and major sea in which coral occurs, from the Persian Gulf to southeast Asia, the Central Pacific to the Caribbean only the second time this has happened (the first time was in 1998). "We're looking at an event of the same magnitude, with temperatures on a par with what we saw in 2005," he says. "As far as corals are concerned, 2010 is, in places, as bad as or worse than 2005."....

Eakin attributes the unusually high temperatures of 2010 to weather patterns, specifically the knock-on effects of an El Niño event in 2009-2010 followed by a La Niña event in 2010-2011, combined with overall warming due to climate change.....

Carbon emissions fell in 2009 due to the recession - but not by as much as predicted, suggesting the fast upward trend will soon be resumed....

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are expected to reach record levels this year, according to a new study, despite the recession and global efforts to reduce greenhouse gases.....
However despite continuing problems in the economy in 2010 global emissions from the burning of fossil fuels will increase by three per cent, according to the annual survey....

Originally Posted by jazzguru

On the anniversary of Climategate the Watermelons show their true colours

ScienceDaily A cold slice of watermelon has long been a Fourth of July holiday staple. But according to recent studies, the juicy fruit may be better suited for Valentines Day. Thats because scientists say watermelon has ingredients that deliver Viagra-like effects to the bodys blood vessels and may even increase libido.

Originally Posted by jazzguru

Coral Bleaching

M.J.C. Crabbe of the United Kingdoms University of Bedfordshire
concluded Despite the multiple influences on the reef sites over the study period, the size classes of the corals studied showed resilience to change. We suspected this all along the coral reefs have been around for 100s of millions of years! He states What is apparent from this study is that despite the chronic and acute disturbances between 2002 and 2008, demographic studies indicate good levels of coral resilience on the fringing reefs around Discovery Bay in Jamaica. Crabbe warns that Unfortunately, previously successful efforts to engage the local fisherman in controlling catches around Discovery Bay have not been maintained, and it may be that the development of a Discovery Bay Marine Park is the only solution. We get the message dont blame global warming, blame the local fishermen!

Mumby and Harborne
Because the Bahamas was severely disturbed by the 1998 coral bleaching event, and later by hurricane Frances in the summer of 2004, coral cover was low at the beginning of the study, averaging only 7% at reserve and non-reserve sites. Corals have been around for eons, they have survived periods much hotter than anything experienced today, they have survived massive El Niño events, and as seen in their study area, the corals can be severely damaged by hurricanes. Delicate corals would have never made it robust corals would win in the world of natural selection.

Adjeroud et al. studied the Tiahura Outer Reef Sector
Their conclusions include the statement In addition, our results reveal that corals can recover rapidly following a dramatic decline. Such decadal-scale recovery of coral cover has been documented at some locations, but our results are novel in demonstrating rapid recovery against a backdrop of ongoing, high frequency, and large-scale disturbances.

Kintisch reports:
Ive never seen bleaching like [it] in Panama, said Nancy Knowlton, a coral biologist at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama who has been studying the local flora for 25 years. She and colleague Hector Guzman have seen massive reefs die in recent weeks in the enclosed lagoon of Bocas del Toro in Panama after becoming coated with giant sheets of slime, the remains of dead microorganisms. This is NOT a normal condition on reefs, even bleached reefs. Where last year there were healthy corals, this year there was only gray ooze, she wrote in an e-mail.

A number of factors besides water temperature can cause coral bleaching and die-offs, including pollution and storms. But temperature is the number-one culprit in such a massive die-off, says Eakin. The warmest 12-month period in the NASA temperature record ended this summer; June through August was the fourth-warmest such period in the record. The extent of the devastation across the Caribbean will become clear in the coming months as biologists measure the deaths.

Originally Posted by FineTunes

2009 carbon emissions fall smaller than expected

Global CO2 expected to rise to record levels

Originally Posted by jazzguru

Ocean Acidification Database

Sea Stars: Another Marine Species Study Confirms That The "Ocean Acidification" Fear Is Without Merit

Book author and blogger Matt Ridley, for example, argued in a 4 November opinion piece in the Times that ocean acidification may not be much of an issue.

Study after study keeps finding that, far from depressing growth rates of marine organisms, higher but realistic levels of carbon dioxide either do not affect them or increase their growth, he wrote, citing a recent meta-analysis of 372 relevant papers. Funds for ocean acidification research were better spent on efforts to counter what Ridley thinks are greater threats to marine ecosystems, namely overfishing and nutrient runoff.

Scientists with the UK Ocean Acidification Research Programme (UKOARP) have now released a detailed and well-balanced response. The briefing agrees that scientists should not overstate the threats of ocean acidification but makes clear that strong evidence does exist for severely negative impacts on a variety of marine species.

The briefing than goes on to discuss point by point the arguments Ridley brought up to support his buoyant views. It concludes that while ocean acidification impacts may indeed not be quite as wide-spread as some dramatically pessimistic scenarios suggest, there are way too many uncertainties and unknowns to support any confidently optimistic scenarios either.

One important and undisputed fact is not mentioned at all. The calcium-based shells and other structures of organisms such as corals and molluscs slowly dissolve in seawater that is unsaturated in calcium carbonate. This effect can occur (and already does) in alkaline water with pH values considerably greater than 7.0, and will be increased by ocean acidification.

Ridley‟s conclusion that ocean acidification will either be beneficial or have no overall biological effect is an invalid interpretation of the evidence. Whilst changes in ocean CO2, pH and carbonate chemistry will undoubtedly result in winners as well as losers, the calculation of an average response is scientifically flawed. That is because positive and negative impacts do not cancel out, but both contribute to ecosystem perturbation. It is also flawed from a human perspective, since an increase in (say) marine algae, bacteria or jellyfish would not provide socio-economic compensation for a decrease in (say) shellfish and corals. Both changes could be bad news‟ from a human perspective.

Originally Posted by jazzguru

No need to spam the thread with the same links and quotes multiple times, FT. By now you should know that just because I don't address or acknowledge every single one of your links does not mean I haven't read the content behind them.

Gas locked inside Siberia's frozen soil and under its lakes has been seeping out since the end of the last ice age 10,000 years ago. But in the past few decades, as the Earth has warmed, the icy ground has begun thawing more rapidly, accelerating the release of methane a greenhouse gas 23 times more powerful than carbon dioxide at a perilous rate.

Some scientists believe the thawing of permafrost could become the epicenter of climate change. They say 1.5 trillion tons of carbon, locked inside icebound earth since the age of mammoths, is a climate time bomb waiting to explode if released into the atmosphere.

Originally Posted by jazzguru

The Climategate Inquiries

Meanwhile, evidence grows that recent global warming is unprecedented in magnitude and speed and cause.

An influential 2006 congressional report that raised questions about the validity of global warming research was partly based on material copied from textbooks, Wikipedia and the writings of one of the scientists criticized in the report, plagiarism experts say.

Review of the 91-page report by three experts contacted by USA TODAY found repeated instances of passages lifted word for word and what appear to be thinly disguised paraphrases.
The evidence has become overwhelming that recent global warming is unprecedented in magnitude and speed and cause (see Two more independent studies back the Hockey Stick and below).* Indeed, as WAG notes, within a few decades, nobody is going to be talking about hockey sticks, they will be talking about right angles or hockey skates (see chart above).

The disinformers (and the confusionists who Curry favor with them), however, are not merely oblivious to the multiple, independent lines of scientific investigation that lead to that conclusion.* They have for over a decade tried to discredit one small piece of that underlying analysis, the Hockey Stick graph developed by Michael Mann, Raymond S. Bradley & Malcolm K. Hughes continuing their obsession even after that analysis was largely reaffirmed by a 2006 report from the National Academy of Sciences, the Supreme Court of science.....

Originally Posted by jazzguru

Winter Deaths to Soar as 5 Million Homes Struggle to Pay Fuel Bills



The higher prices are not due to an energy shortage, they are due to regulatory policies designed to intentionally drive the prices of petroleum based fuels higher and encourage adoption of alternative energy sources.

The problem is, the cost alternative energy is still more expensive!

And how ironic is it that the AGW zealots insist people must freeze to death in order to "save the planet" from global warming?

Originally Posted by jazzguru

So tell me, does weather = climate?

Americas winter just passed might be melting in the current heat, but the snow that fell was not affected by climate change or a warming planet.
New research published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters found that the heavier than normal snows that fell along the east coast of America, making it the snowiest winter on record for Washington D.C., Baltimore and Philadelphia, was a result of a collision of two periodic weather patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

But the arctic winter - the second this decade - is an exception to the general trend of global warming, according to meteorologists and climate experts. Frank Boettcher, director of the German Institute for Weather and Climate Communication, told IPS that "the present winter does not contradict the global climate change trend at all."
Boettcher said that the present temperatures in Central and Northern Europe are relatively low.
According to official German weather statistics, present average temperature is at least one Celsius higher than 100 years ago. Even more illustrative is the comparison of the so-called cold sum of the winter, which is the total of all the daily negative average temperatures measured in the period between Nov. 1 and Mar. 31.

KATMANDU, Nepal Supermodel Helena Christensen has spent three days in villages in southern Nepal as part of her campaign to highlight the effect of global warming on poor and rural communities.

Originally Posted by jazzguru



I think you missed the point of that article and my post, FT.

Read it again, carefully.

Originally Posted by jazzguru

And the hits just keep on coming: The Book the IPCC Plagiarized

...In the context of climate change and ocean acidification, I also believe that because our nation is the biggest historical producer and second largest current producer of greenhouse gasses, we have a profound moral responsibility to be sure we get this right. Scripture teaches us to love thy neighbor as thyself. If our disproportionate impacts on the rest of the world are harming billions of other people and countless other species, we are not living up to that scriptural guidance.
Finally, even if one completely rejects the evidence that will be presented today and in reports from the National Academies of Science and countless other respected bodies, it still makes good sense to strive for our nation to be a leader in clean energy technology for economic self interest alone. Is not the reality of sending hundreds of billions of dollars abroad, often to countries with values antithetical to our own, at least a bit troubling? Is not the national security risk this creates disconcerting? Are the known impacts, such as Exxon Valdez, the recent Gulf Oil spill, and numerous other events not of sufficient concern to argue for change? Are not the facts of "red alert" days in our nation's cities, days in which it is "unsafe to breathe" for our children, cause for some degree of consternation?
I believe the evidence of climate change and ocean acidification is compelling and troubling, but even without that conclusion, I am convinced that we must change our energy policies for reasons of economics, national security and environmental and human health....

As my testimony indicates, the scientific evidence is compelling. We know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that human activities have changed the composition of Earths atmosphere. And we know that these human-caused changes in the levels of greenhouse gases make it easier for the atmosphere to trap heat. This is simple, basic physics. While there is legitimate debate in the scientific community about the size of the human effect on climate, there is really no serious scientific debate about the scientific finding that our planet warmed over the last century, and that human activities are implicated in this warming.

Synopsis. With high scientific confidence, human CO2 and other greenhouse gases are having a warming influence on the climate, and the resulting rise in temperature is contributing to changes in much of the worlds ice. Shrinkage of the large ice sheets was unexpected to many observers but appears to be occurring, and the poor understanding of these changes prevents reliable projections of future sea-level rise over long times. Large, rapid changes in the ice sheets, or in other parts of the Earth system, may be unlikely but cannot be excluded entirely, and such an event could have very large effects.

In conclusion, ocean acidification is caused by the buildup of carbon dioxide and other acidic compounds in the atmosphere and is expected to have significant impacts on marine ecosystems. Results from laboratory, field and modeling studies, as well as evidence from the geological record, clearly indicate that marine ecosystems are highly susceptible to the increases in oceanic CO2 and the corresponding decreases in pH. Because of the very clear potential for ocean-wide impacts of ocean acidification at all levels of the marine ecosystem, from the tiniest phytoplankton to zooplankton to fish and shellfish, we can expect to see significant impacts that are of immense importance to humankind. Ocean acidification is an emerging scientific issue and much research is needed before the breadth and magnitude of ecosystems responses are well understood. However, to the limit that the scientific community understands this issue right now, the potential for environmental, economic and societal risk is quite high, hence demanding serious and immediate attention.

...we are left with the realizationthat the enhanced greenhouse effect is 15 or 20 times larger than the difference between solar maximum and solar minimum in the output of the sun. Moreover, the enhanced greenhouse effect is not oscillating, it is simply continuing to rise, so the evidence today rules out any significant role for solar changes in causing the observed climate changes of the last several decades.
I have alluded to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases that have been observed worldwide that demonstrate human impact. In the case of carbon dioxide, our data are of extremely high quality; measurements are taken frequently from many locations on the surface of the Earth, from aircraft, satellites, and from dated ice cores extending back over hundreds and thousands of years. The evidence that the increase in carbon dioxide worldwide amounts from approxirnately 280 parts per million in the late 19th century to approximately 390 parts per million this year is very strong and that the increases due to human activities is also clear. The lines of evidence that one uses in attributing the carbon dioxide increase to human activities includes the rate of the concentration increase compared to the rate of release of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel usage, the isotopic content of the carbon dioxide, the carbon dioxide patterns geographically compared to the places where carbon dioxide is being released by human activity, by oceanic amounts, and by known patterns of movement of atmospheric chemicals. There is a contribution to this increase from human-caused deforestation. This contribution is approximately 15 percent of the total while fossil-fuel usage is approximately 85 percent of the total. The release of carbon dioxide from deforestation is due both to the direct burning of wood and the decay of exposed soil organic matter.....

Climate models also have equations that capture the effects of greenhouse gases and relevant feedbacks in the climate system that can influence climate. These climate models can reproduce, to first order, the observed changes in temperature and precipitation extremes observed over the past 50 years or so. These have included more heat extremes, fewer cold extremes, greater increases in daily record high temperatures compared to daily record low temperatures, and increased precipitation intensity. This lends credibility to the climate models such that there is likely to be useful information in their climate projections about future changes of extremes. With continued increases of greenhouse gases and consequent warming, these model projections depict a world with ongoing increases in heat extremes and record heat, reductions in cold extremes and record cold, and greater precipitation intensity.

Originally Posted by jazzguru

This just in: Anthropogenic Global Warming, aka Anthropogenic Climate Change, aka Anthropogenic Climate Disruption causes everything. Only solution is to submit to totalitarian global government regime to "save the planet". Film at 11.

Originally Posted by jazzguru

Fifty Years Of Low Hurricane Activity In The US

2010 typhoon tally may be lowest on record

What Happened to All the Hurricanes, Al?

Originally Posted by jazzguru

I win.

.[I]f a new study is to be believed, we might have been making the situation worse, not better. According to forthcoming research by the Berkeley psychologists Robb Willer and Matthew Feinberg, when people are shown scientific evidence or news stories on climate change that emphasize the most negative aspects of warming extinguished species, melting ice caps, serial natural disasters they are actually more likely to dismiss or deny what they're seeing. Far from scaring people into taking action on climate change, such messages seem to scare them straight into denial.....

Now a climate scientist armed with data might argue that worldviews should be trumped by facts. But there's no denying that climate skepticism is on the rise: a new report from the Pew Research Center found that the percentage of Americans who believe there is solid evidence that the earth is warming because of human activity has fallen from 50% in 2006 to 34%. The numbers are even lower for conservatives just 16% of Republicans surveyed believe in manmade global warming, compared with 53% of Democrats.....

"You can't negotiate with the planet." That's true but you have to negotiate with the public. Scaring them out of their wits will produce little beyond fear. Increasingly, the war over climate change won't just be fought in scientific journals and international summits, but also between our ears.

Originally Posted by jazzguru

The Climategate Inquiries

Lord Lawson called the three official inquiries, one by the House of Commons science and technology select committee and two commissioned by the university, "highly defective". But he hasconsistently refused to reveal the identities of the donors behind the secretive Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) which paid for the report.

The inquiry's author, Andrew Montford, criticised the previous inquiries for not investigating the most serious allegations and for failing to ask key questions....
Montford, who runs the Bishop Hill climate sceptic blog, also criticised the MPs' inquiry and a third review led by Lord Oxburgh, for failing to address an allegation of fraud relating to a paper that Jones published in 1990.

More generally, Montford criticised the inquiries for a lack of impartiality. The report said there had been a "failure to ensure balance and independence", suggesting CRU members and critics had been treated differently. "While CRU justifications and explanations were willingly accepted without any serious probing, critics were denied adequate opportunity to respond and to counter demonstrably inaccurate claims," it said.

But detractors of the GWPF said the same criticism of bias applied to Montford's report. The study, for which Montford was paid £3,000, did not involve interviews with any of the scientists or anyone involved in the inquiries. Montford said it was reviewed by "five or six people", including the sceptical blogger Steven McIntyre and members of GWPF's advisory panel. According to Montford, none was sympathetic to the scientific case for human-induced climate change .

UAE said all three of the previous inquiries had "found in favour" of its climate scientists and had concluded there was no reason to doubt the scientific consensus that man-made warming is happening.

In a statement it said:

The fight is on. After a year of attacks, climate scientists in America today launch a new website aimed at closing the gap between scientific knowledge and public understanding of global warming.

Meanwhile, a few Republicans are beginning to question the new party line on rejecting any evidence that humans are changing the climate.

In a letter to the Washington Post, Sherwood Boehlert, a retired Republican congressman who once headed the house science committee, wrote:

The website by the new rapid response team of climate scientists promises to connect reporters and editors with a team of experts. In the build-up to today's launch the three scientists behind the project John Abraham, Scott Mandia, and Ray Weymann have come off almost as climate science super heroes, which in a sense they are.

The report represents the culmination of a rigorous, yearlong examination of some of the most pressing climate change effects to which California must adapt, as well as the short- and long-term strategies California must undertake if the state is to prepare for these effects. The report sets out an actionable plan for the Golden State by providing key and threat-specific recommendations regarding three significant hazards: sea level rise, more severe forest / range wildfires, and water supply reduction.

Originally Posted by jazzguru

I win.

Rising temperatures caused by climate change are expected to "adversely impact" water supply, farm output and forests in India by 2030, a new study released by the government says.
It has projected a temperature rise of between 1.7C and 2C in India over the next 20 years.
The study says India faces increased precipitation and storms and a continuing sea level rise.

BEIJING (AFP) China aims to achieve a peak in its greenhouse gas emissions "at an early date" but insists that developed countries bear the main burden for curbing carbon output, an official said Tuesday.

"We will not allow our emissions to increase unchecked. China is taking decisive actions to slow down our emissions so that our emissions peak can come at an early date," said Xie Zhenhua, China's top climate change official.

However, speaking at a briefing as the world prepares for next week's climate change summit in Mexico, Xie announced no new Chinese proposals for the talks.