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Apple's Black Friday Mac in-store sales forecast to decrease [u]

post #1 of 27
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Checks with Apple stores last week suggest that in-store 2009 Black Friday Mac sales could see a year-over-year decrease, though online sales will likely compensate for losses, according to a new report. [Updated]

Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said his team spent nine hours counting Mac sales in three different retail stores on the day after Thanksgiving. The firm counted an average of 8.3 Macs sold per hour, down from 13 per hour in 2008.

Update: The firm later issued a second note Monday morning, noting that strong online sales would likely "offset" the decrease seen in-store.

Munster said it is "too early" to make any calls on the overall December quarter. The analyst has retained his prediction of 2.8 million units sold during the frame, citing NPD Group numbers from October.

"While the average number of Macs sold per hour was down slightly y/y, we do not think we can make a call on Macs in the Dec. quarter with this data point alone," he said.

In October, U.S. NPD retail data suggested Mac sales were up 7 percent year over year. They were bolstered by the release of new iMacs, a unibody polycarbonate MacBook, and faster Mac minis late in the month.

Expectations for Apple are high. In the September quarter, the Cupertino, Calif., company reported its best quarter ever, based on sales of 3 million Macs and 7.4 million iPhones. The company's profits rose more than 46 percent in the three-month period that concluded on Sept. 26.

As for online Black Friday sales, Apple's Web site traffic was one of five retail sites that surpassed 4 million unique visitors, according to comScore. Apple saw 39 percent year-over-year growth in its online traffic.

In all, the company reported that $595 million was spent online in the U.S. on Black Friday, an 11 percent increase over 2008.

Apple also discounted prices on some accessories for "Cyber Monday," the term used for the Monday following Black Friday. The day is said to be the busiest in the year for the purchase of electronics. The company has discounted Dr. Dre-branded headphones by $30, the mophie Juice Pack Air iPhone case and rechargeable battery by $8, and the Eye-Fi 2GB Geo SD card by $6.

In addition, Apple is offering free shipping on products purchased through Dec. 23.



"The $595 million in online spending this Black Friday represents the second heaviest online spending day of the season-to-date and a double-digit increase from last year," said comScore Chairman Gian Fulgoni. "While this acceleration in spending suggests the online holiday season may be shaping up slightly more optimistically than anticipated, it may also reflect the heavy discounting and creative promotions being put forth by retailers that now encompass the use of social networks such as Facebook and Twitter. Cyber Monday -- the traditional kick-off to the online holiday shopping season -- and the subsequent weeks will be the real test for how online retailers fare this season. That said, this is a very encouraging start."
post #2 of 27
???

http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=828701

ComScore released results from Black Friday's online sales and found that online spending was up 11% over the previous year with an estimated $595 Million spent. Apple.com was singled out as one of the top 5 online retailers. Apple reportedly saw traffic growth of 39% year-over-year.

http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events...ersus_Year_Ago
post #3 of 27
I never trust these analysts. They always say Mac sales are down every quarter and they always turns out wrong. No one has that data but Apple.
post #4 of 27
Standing outside of an Apple Store and counting how many people walk out with a Mac? You're kidding me right?

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"While the average number of Macs sold per hour was down slightly y/y, we do not think we can make a call on Macs in the Dec. quarter with this data point alone," he said.

Duh. These "analysts" are hilarious.
post #5 of 27
Although internationaly such as the UK the discounts were far lower than the US and we tend to pay far more in the first place for the same hardware (go figure) I would be very surprised to not see excellent US sales for the Black Friday event.

Every tech website hyped the sales in a massive way so there was plent of advertisement.

Before people in the US say that the price difference in the UK or elsewhere is due to VAT etc the white MacBook costs £100 (approx $160) more before tax so this is not a factor.
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post #6 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

Before people in the US say that the price difference in the UK or elsewhere is due to VAT etc the white MacBook costs £100 (approx $160) more before tax so this is not a factor.

You have to account for for exchange rate uncertainty (currencies can go up or down) and higher labor/warehousing/distribution costs in retailing.
post #7 of 27
If Christmas itself, at least in a secular sense, is seen as a mass marketing scheme, then how is "Black Friday" anything different? I see no significance in viewing these relative "spikes" in sales statistics. TRENDS over months and years are what count, not these arbitrary narrow points in time.

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post #8 of 27
Apple should have offered a matte iMac and a 13" matte MacBook Pro.
post #9 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

You have to account for for exchange rate uncertainty (currencies can go up or down) and higher labor/warehousing/distribution costs in retailing.

Don't get me wrong, you expect a bit more, even $30-40 could be expected, but $160? That's just greed and a rip off to the consumer!
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post #10 of 27
It took Gene and his team NINE hours to review sales from only THREE stores??? They must retarded or something. But as another pointed out, looks like the story is full of shit.
post #11 of 27
post #12 of 27
All I see in this article is this: More people opted to buy online this year, rather than to go out to the store.

Following the year over year trend of more and more people opting to order expensive items online, this is no surprise.

There were no significant discounts to drive (Apple) sales on Black Friday, so it was a standard (busy) Apple sales day. In store sales may have been down from last year, but online sales were up. So, more people wised up to the idea that going to the Mall on black friday is a stupid idea, and if you need to buy something from Apple, just order it online. They did.
post #13 of 27
I bet next its gonna be set to do a kinda wavy pattern
post #14 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by caljomac View Post

I bet next its gonna be set to do a kinda wavy pattern

Analyze that!
post #15 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

Don't get me wrong, you expect a bit more, even $30-40 could be expected, but $160? That's just greed and a rip off to the consumer!

Yeah, that too. But, it also depends whether there is 'pricing-to-market' based on how competitors behave -- e.g., is there is a similar price difference between the US and the UK in the case of, say, Sony or HP?
post #16 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by hzc View Post

Standing outside of an Apple Store and counting how many people walk out with a Mac? You're kidding me right?

Duh. These "analysts" are hilarious.

And just how would you do it?

Apple is the only one that knows or will ever know the exact sales figures.

Analysts are quite aware of the on-line resources now available. However, they have no access to actual sales figures unless the third-party e-store are willing to publish them. And they haven't and don't expect them to do so either. Note that analysts will update their reports as soon as they get other anecdotal data, e.g., by on-line purchasing patterns*, credit card usage, etc.

As everybody is well aware, a lot of Apple's on-line sales are not available for public knowledge.

Market research by analysts are done this way all the time. The main thing, is that the protocol is the same for each data research set, i.e., same stores, same time, same methodology. Thus they can trend. That's all they need or want to do.

If you are in the stock market, analysts are there for your guidance only. Too far off the mark, they loose their clients. if you are not one of them, why the hell should you care.

*UPDATE:
Quote:
Competing analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray initially said Monday that Black Friday retail sales were seen as slower than in 2008, indicated by in-store checks of Mac sales on the day after Thanksgiving. However, the firm updated its note later Monday to note that online sales were up 39 percent year-over-year, likely offsetting the possible decrease in retail sales.

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...as_strong.html

Visitors to Apple.com up 39% on Black Friday 2009 vs. 2008
http://macdailynews.com/index.php/we...omments/23186/
post #17 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by hillstones View Post

It took Gene and his team NINE hours to review sales from only THREE stores???

No.
They sat in front of an Apple store for 9 hours and counted people walking out of the store with a new Mac.

Where do you expect them to get info to review the sales from these stores?
post #18 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

Don't get me wrong, you expect a bit more, even $30-40 could be expected, but $160? That's just greed and a rip off to the consumer!

Nonsense. Every time the dollar weakens, people outside the U.S. start their moaning about how a discount hasn't been passed along to them. This simply does not happen.
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post #19 of 27
How did they count custom Mac's that have to be ordered that were not available in the store?

I also suspect sales have already taken place online for a lot of folks who purchased a new iMac in late October and early November.
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post #20 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by hzc View Post

Standing outside of an Apple Store and counting how many people walk out with a Mac? You're kidding me right?

How else would you have them do it? They then factor in all the other sales from this baseline. It’s like Neilsen on any other system out there. You get figures for a small segment (ie: a cew Apple stores) and determine the rest from that.


Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

You have to account for for exchange rate uncertainty (currencies can go up or down) and higher labor/warehousing/distribution costs in retailing.

No to mention the cost for an outside county to import good for sale, the costs for additional testing for that country to make sure your goods are not breaking any laws. There is even the small cost of having a different a different box, different keyboard and different power plug but since selling to a European country is considerably lower than selling to the US where more than half of all Mac sales take place this cost these do affect the per unit charges more than other countries.


Quote:
Originally Posted by hillstones View Post

It took Gene and his team NINE hours to review sales from only THREE stores??? They must retarded or something. But as another pointed out, looks like the story is full of shit.

It took 9 hours to watch stores for 9 hours. I can’t imagine it taking any less.


Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

All I see in this article is this: More people opted to buy online this year, rather than to go out to the store.

Following the year over year trend of more and more people opting to order expensive items online, this is no surprise.

There are also more Apple Stores and more Apple retails than there were making the sales from each B&M store less than it would have been in years past while still taking in the same revenue.


Quote:
Originally Posted by DJRumpy View Post

How did they count custom Mac's that have to be ordered that were not available in the store?

They likely didn’t. Perhaps they should account for such a thing because I think the Core i7 iMacs are going to be pretty popular. Once they can get the sales ramped up I have a feeling they will be sold in stores as defualt builds.
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post #21 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul Chapel View Post

I never trust these analysts. They always say Mac sales are down every quarter and they always turns out wrong. No one has that data but Apple.

indeed. and their methodology is full of holes.

3 stores, what 3 stores. also how many sales did they miss counting when mall security made them stop lurking around the store entrance for fear they were stalking folks to rip them off.

were they counting by actual transactions or by who walked out with a computer (remember they offer that set up and training so some computers could have been left behind).

also, some folks, figuring the malls would be wacked on Friday may have opt'd to order online or wait until later in the weekend, especially those with students in the house cause the education discount is as much as the Black Friday on many machines.

Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

Don't get me wrong, you expect a bit more, even $30-40 could be expected, but $160? That's just greed and a rip off to the consumer!

don't forgot about import taxes.

back in the day, I worked for Godiva which had several stores in Japan. and yet my store (in los angeles) would get mad sales to Japanese businessmen. it was crazy. way more crazy than the doubling of cost due to currency rates could explain. so I asked one nice fellow that is in town every month or two. He said that due to the import taxes for a US company to bring a luxury item to sell in Japan the cost was almost 6 times what he would pay buying it here and paying individual custom taxes when he got home. OUCH

Apple may be in a similar boat when selling outside of the US

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post #22 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

don't forgot about import taxes.
...
Apple may be in a similar boat when selling outside of the US

The items are not really imported as such.
They are simply built to deliver for UK (or wherever) sale.
If they were "imported" from the US to somewhere else, they would be far more expensive, as with your chocolates.
Most international companies don't want to adjust prices on products to match their home country sales prices. You want to do that then buy/sell currency on the open market.
It would drive the finance people crazy and be an accounting nightmare.
post #23 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris_CA View Post

The items are not really imported as such.
They are simply built to deliver for UK (or wherever) sale.
If they were "imported" from the US to somewhere else, they would be far more expensive, as with your chocolates.
Most international companies don't want to adjust prices on products to match their home country sales prices. You want to do that then buy/sell currency on the open market.
It would drive the finance people crazy and be an accounting nightmare.

Precisely. Even more importantly, goods are priced for the market where they sell, not abroad and converted to local currencies. I've never quite understood why anyone would expect goods to automatically drop in price simply because their local currency strengthened. If this happened, the result would be deflation -- which itself is very bad news. So be grateful that it doesn't work this way, and if you want to enjoy your strong local currency, stop griping and get your fanny on a airplane.
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post #24 of 27
The fact that Apple only offered the same $101 off high end models that they did on entry level ones might have had some effect. I think there's an expectation that a "sale" will offer a percentage discount, not a flat one per transaction. 4% off is hardly worth getting out of bed for.

The rush of sales that accompanied the release of the new models in October probably left very few people with both the desire and funding for a new Mac. Why wait 4-6 weeks for what you know is going to be a lame discount when you can get that new machine home and start using it?

Apple has a business model that employs retail stores for showcasing product and taking orders. There is no expectation that anything bigger than an iPod is going to physically walk out of a retail store.

Finally the online resellers offered much better Black Friday deals so while Apple's own retail sales may have been somewhat weaker than some analyst expected, the amount of product moved by the channel could have been very significant.
post #25 of 27
ZDnet has an blog article comparing the "analysis" done by Munster with that done by Whitmore. Munster spent 9 hours in 3 stores (i.e., 3 hours in each); Whitmore analyzed the sales results of over 150 stores, including online sellers like Amazon and MacMall.

Whitmore says "Apple ... has started the holiday season well and we believe both Macs and iPhones are tracking in-line to above ... while iPods are tracking roughly in-line..."

http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=27869&tag=trunk;content

Let's see, who to listen to? The guy who watched 3 stores? Or the group that analyzed the sales of over 150 outlets? Hmmmm...

Yeesh, I hope Munster made enough off his "research" to be able to pay for the gas he used driving to those 3 stores, cuz I'm not sure it would be worth even that!
post #26 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alphaman View Post

ZDnet has an blog article comparing the "analysis" done by Munster with that done by Whitmore. Munster spent 9 hours in 3 stores (i.e., 3 hours in each); Whitmore analyzed the sales results of over 150 stores, including online sellers like Amazon and MacMall.

Whitmore says "Apple ... has started the holiday season well and we believe both Macs and iPhones are tracking in-line to above ... while iPods are tracking roughly in-line..."

http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=27869&tag=trunk;content

Let's see, who to listen to? The guy who watched 3 stores? Or the group that analyzed the sales of over 150 outlets? Hmmmm...

Yeesh, I hope Munster made enough off his "research" to be able to pay for the gas he used driving to those 3 stores, cuz I'm not sure it would be worth even that!

As long as Munster outlines his research protocol, the investment firm he reports to, their brokers and clients are satisfied. All he is doing is trending sales based on the same protocols utilized in his previous report.

Even if Whitmore analyzed the sales results of over 300 stores, it means dick all if they weren't comparing the same stores in his previous report. And Whitmore's analysis is only of interest by his company's clients. Remember, the only people that are truly apprised of all the information within these reports are the company people that pay for them. Not AppleInsider. And that information is transposed by the brokers as part of their advise to their clients/prospects.

If you notice, Munster's historical analysis have been quite accurate. Obvious, the 3 stores that he tracks are quite representative of the whole. Until they wander from the norm, there is no need to expand the selection. True, they are only estimations. But as long as they accurately monitor the actual trend there is no real need to change.

Note that AI reported elsewhere that Munster updated his earlier report with information acquired on tracking on-line stores. And, lets not forget that Munster is regarded as one of the top analyst in the country.

If I am not mistaken, Munster is an analysts and like most major investment houses, he does not or can not own stock or promote the stock he researches on. At least not without a notice of 'conflict of interest', if at all.
post #27 of 27
Quote:
Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said his team spent nine hours counting Mac sales in three different retail stores on the day after Thanksgiving. The firm counted an average of 8.3 Macs sold per hour, down from 13 per hour in 2008.


IT'S THE GLOSSY SCREENS I TELL YOU!!!

</>Rant


Ok , it's the economy really.

and the glossy screens


More online sales, means more savvy customers who will choose matte for sake of their eyes.
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