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Another take: Apple's Black Friday sales seen as 'strong'

post #1 of 29
Thread Starter 
Despite Apple offering modest discounts for Black Friday, huge Mac sales for the year's biggest shopping day have been projected, thanks to third-party resellers.

Analyst Shaw Wu with Kaufman Bros. issued a new note Monday that reported low inventory and out-of-stock Macs at many resellers. He said he believes his above-consensus forecast of 2.9 million Mac sales for the December quarter could be low.

"Promotions through third-party retailers including Amazon.com, Best Buy, Wal-Mart and Target were more aggressive than usual," Wu said, "with discounts as much as 20% vs. previous years of 11%-13%. Some even bundled generous gift cards (as much as $50 for iPods and $150 for Macs) to entice buyers. So far, many third-party discounts (though maybe not as aggressive) are continuing beyond Black Friday."

Apple offered modest discounts between 4 percent and 10 percent through its retail stores and Web site, but third-party retailers were more aggressive than usual, likely boosting sales, he said. That pushed Mac inventory to limited or no availability at usually in-stock locations like Amazon.com and Best Buy, Wu said.

"This includes both models of iMacs (entry-level 21.5-inch and higher-end 27-inch versions) as well as the entry-level MacBook," he said. "From our understanding, this is due to unexpected strong demand and what makes this intriguing is the strength and Windows 7 and Macs commanding 2x-3x the (average selling price) of PCs. While it is still early with five weeks left in the December quarter, we believer our forecast looking for 2.9 million Macs is likely conservative."

In addition, he said that foot traffic at Apple's retail stores was "strong," and sales of Macs, iPhones and iPods appeared brisk. The Black Friday weekend is said to account for about 10 percent of holiday sales.

Competing analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray initially said Monday that Black Friday retail sales were seen as slower than in 2008, indicated by in-store checks of Mac sales on the day after Thanksgiving. However, the firm updated its note later Monday to note that online sales were up 39 percent year-over-year, likely offsetting the possible decrease in retail sales.

Wu previously said that the new iMac and Magic Mouse will provide a significant boost to previously sagging desktop sales. He said that the new iMac in particular offers value and is positioned to be a "sleeper hit." In addition, the new Magic Mouse was said to be a "key differentiator" for the Mac platform.

Kaufman Bros. has maintained its price target of $235 for AAPL stock and reiterated its "buy" rating.

Many retailers have extended their sales on Apple products through Cyber Monday. Shoppers can find the best prices on Macs by using the AppleInsider Mac Pricing Guide:

post #2 of 29
Good good. Hopefully this money will go into building a new iphone and a kick-ass mac pro
post #3 of 29
One thing we know for sure: sales, compared to last year, are either up or down.
post #4 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

One thing we know for sure: sales, compared to last year, are either up or down.

Or the same.
post #5 of 29
So do we believe the last article or do we believe Wu?

I don't know what credence I would give someone who states:
Quote:
In addition, the new Magic Mouse was said to be a "key differentiator" for the Mac platform.

post #6 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post

Or the same.

Nah. I considered that possibility, and concluded that the probability is too low. Hey, there's analysis here, you know!
post #7 of 29
Solution:

Wait for the quarterly report. The quarterly report is the Holy Grail of performance indicators. It is truth.
post #8 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

So do we believe the last article or do we believe Wu?

I don't know what credence I would give someone who states:

I went into the Santa Clara store on Sunday AM and it looked pretty busy to me. I was there for 5 minutes and saw someone walk out with an iMac.

BTW the Apple reps had the new iPod Touch checkout units. The guy who served me was happy to be using it. Said it was quickly than the old POS they had before.

It was also interesting that the assistant also asked a ton of questions - like do I have an iPhone etc. Seems like engaging the customers in conversation is a new way for Apple to direct them to accessories. I was kind of impressed because the usual sales assistant will either ask a general broad question like "is there anything else you want" or direct you to something they have to sell.
post #9 of 29
Does anyone here every get the feeling that the guys that are doing this analysis are doing it for their own profit?

Saying sales are down to push the stock down so they can buy shares low.

Spreading rumours of future "rumoured products" that are "too good to be true" so that when Apple does release the final product some people are dissapointed and the stock goes down.

It's time to use the web to track these Analysts and give them a rating. It would be nice in Appleinsider to see a (+/-) rating after each mention of a company. LIke they have Apple stock price after Apple name. I'd like to see Kaufman Bros (+3) so we can better judge the validity of the analysis.

-edit~ fixed some terrible Monday morning spelling
Make it idiotproof and they'll just make a
better idiot.
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Make it idiotproof and they'll just make a
better idiot.
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post #10 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcloki View Post

Does anyone here every get the feeling that the guys that are doing this analysis are doing it for their own profit?

Saying sales are down to push the stock down so they can buy shares low.

Spreading rumours of future "rumoured products" that are "too good to be true" so that when Apple does release the final product some people are dissapointed and the stock goes down.

It's time to use the web to track these Analysts and give them a rating. It would be nice in Appleinsider to see a (+/-) rating after each mention of a company. LIke they have Apple stock price after Apple name. I'd like to see Kaufman Bros (+3) so we can better judge the validity of the analysis.

-edit~ fixed some terrible Monday morning spelling

I gather that you are not an investor or you would be aware that analysts are tracked and rated, e.g., via Yahoo Finance for one: http://biz.yahoo.com/a/ba/a11.html.

I would also suggest that you do some due diligence re Analysts, their relationships with investment houses and rule that the SEC imposes on them.

Why you should get upset, bewilders me. Only their clients really need to be the best judge of their abilities.

By the way, to make a judgement based on an AppleInsider sound bite is downright idiotic.
post #11 of 29
i almost bought an iMac from Amazon. $1049 and 2 years interest free financing was a great deal. wife wanted to wait until next year though.

and over the weekend a friend gave me his G4 Mini for helping him out. my first Mac.

next year i'll most likely buy an imac, a MBP or both. moving to a new place and my utilities won't be covered by my HOA anymore so it will be time to invest some money to pay less to the electric company
post #12 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abster2core View Post

I gather that you are not an investor or you would be aware that analysts are tracked and rated, e.g., via Yahoo Finance for one: http://biz.yahoo.com/a/ba/a11.html.

I would also suggest that you do some due diligence re Analysts, their relationships with investment houses and rule that the SEC imposes on them.

Why you should get upset, bewilders me. Only their clients really need to be the best judge of their abilities.

By the way, to make a judgement based on an AppleInsider sound bite is downright idiotic.

I hear you, never understand people complaining about information, when the raw data is available, if you bothered to look.
post #13 of 29
Thanks for the info about Analysts being tracked and ranked. Did not know that.

So it would be possible to put those rankings after their names in articles as a hyperlink to make it easier for people to do due diligence.

I'm not upset from a client making money perspective. I'm more concerned from a consumer persuasion angle.
I'm more a marketing guy not an investor guy.
Make it idiotproof and they'll just make a
better idiot.
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Make it idiotproof and they'll just make a
better idiot.
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post #14 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abster2core View Post

I gather that you are not an investor or you would be aware that analysts are tracked and rated, e.g., via Yahoo Finance for one: http://biz.yahoo.com/a/ba/a11.html.

I would also suggest that you do some due diligence re Analysts, their relationships with investment houses and rule that the SEC imposes on them.

Why you should get upset, bewilders me. Only their clients really need to be the best judge of their abilities.

By the way, to make a judgement based on an AppleInsider sound bite is downright idiotic.

This is all true, but analysts' remarks can and do move the markets. For a long time, few analysts even covered Apple, and some of the few who did, were generally clueless about the company, finding a dark cloud inside every silver lining. This is not so much of an issue now that Apple has become an investor darling, but it leaves a sense of irritation behind for those of us who remember how Apple used to be covered. FWIW, I don't pay much attention to these guys, even though I've got quite a lot wrapped up in AAPL. As someone said above, wait until the quarterly report -- that's where the real rubber hits the real road.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #15 of 29
I purchased 2 27" iMac's yesterday from the online Apple Fed store. One, a core duo was shipped today, the other a Quad-Core i7 will ship on 14 December. So some of these units are not just sitting on shelves waiting to be purchased.
jgb
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jgb
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post #16 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

This is all true, but analysts' remarks can and do move the markets. For a long time, few analysts even covered Apple, and some of the few who did, were generally clueless about the company, finding a dark cloud inside every silver lining. This is not so much of an issue now that Apple has become an investor darling, but it leaves a sense of irritation behind for those of us who remember how Apple used to be covered. FWIW, I don't pay much attention to these guys, even though I've got quite a lot wrapped up in AAPL. As someone said above, wait until the quarterly report -- that's where the real rubber hits the real road.

To each his own.

However, remember the adage, "buy on rumor, sell on fact"

Keep in mind that investors/brokers are gamblers. They are betting on their future. Like gamblers, unless you are winning, your future is rather bleak.

And if you want to play at their table, you have to follow by their house rules. Otherwise, go elsewhere.
post #17 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

So do we believe the last article or do we believe Wu?

I don't know what credence I would give someone who states:

We tend to believe the information that supports our personal bias. Those who want to see Apple fail (like you) latch onto information and reports that paint a gloomy picture. This justifies your anti-Apple bias and confrims your own predictions of doom. Those who support Apple and want to see it succeed will select information that supports their pro-Apple bias. Both sides are selectively accepting or rejecting analysts reports based on what they want to hear, not what is actually going on.

We know, for example, that when Apple eventually stumbles and its stock price drops, you will be on this forum grinning from ear-to-ear, pontificating about how you predicted this or that (your tired old "matte" argument for example). You will be even more insufferable than you already are. You will hold court explaining how you knew this was coming and if olny Apple had done this or that this wouldn't be happening. Conversely, the fanbois will be out waving the flag and cheerleading.

So what's so hard about deciding which is the correct take on Apple's Black Friday sales. We already know which report you will believe.
post #18 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

One thing we know for sure: sales, compared to last year, are either up or down.

Or maybe the glass is half full or half empty?
post #19 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

Or maybe the glass is half full or half empty?

With Kool-Aid?
post #20 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abster2core View Post

However, remember the adage, "buy on rumor, sell on fact"

Keep in mind that investors/brokers are gamblers. They are betting on their future. Like gamblers, unless you are winning, your future is rather bleak.

And if you want to play at their table, you have to follow by their house rules. Otherwise, go elsewhere.

I was taught that an early age. I was also taught that the stock market is built on two emotions: fear & greed and you never make or lose anything in the market until you sell. Both of these have done me well enough to retire by age 32.


The buy on rumor/sell on fact" shoo-in that I somehow forgot about earlier this year was the Palm Pre. I knew that stock was going to jump after Palm started marketing the Pre. I could have gotten at least 10x my investment in 5 months. Oh well, such is life. There will be another opportunity soon enough.
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post #21 of 29
I was at a MicroCenter over the holidays, and they were selling MacBooks for $799. And Im 99% it was the new model, toothats what was sitting by the sign, though I didnt have time to ask for confirmation.

Thats a crazy deal!
post #22 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by nagromme View Post

I was at a MicroCenter over the holidays, and they were selling MacBooks for $799. And Im 99% it was the new model, toothats what was sitting by the sign, though I didnt have time to ask for confirmation.

Thats a crazy deal!

That requires a mail-in-rebate which is a gift card for the store that youll have to wait until February to get, going by the 8-10 week delay. Then hope you didnt mess something up or it got lost in the mail or at the rebate center. Personally, Id rather pay the $50-80 up front at other places for the current MacBook and be done with it. I dont think Ive ever filled out a rebate in my life.
http://www.microcenter.com/rebates/r...phtml?id=42884
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post #23 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abster2core View Post

To each his own.

However, remember the adage, "buy on rumor, sell on fact"

Keep in mind that investors/brokers are gamblers. They are betting on their future. Like gamblers, unless you are winning, your future is rather bleak.

And if you want to play at their table, you have to follow by their house rules. Otherwise, go elsewhere.

I'm not sure what you're saying here. Investing by adage is a bad idea; if that's all you've got, by all means go elsewhere. Individual investors attempting to be market timers is also a bad idea. The pros can't even do that with any consistency, so good luck to individual investors.

I think most individual investors know, or at least they will find out, that they are along for the ride. It's the institutional investors who call the shots. The best individual investors can hope to do is pick stocks they understand, and hold on for the ride. If they can't stomach that, then they should buy into a diversified range of index funds, set, and forget.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #24 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I'm not sure what you're saying here. Investing by adage is a bad idea; if that's all you've got, by all means go elsewhere. Individual investors attempting to be market timers is also a bad idea. The pros can't even do that with any consistency, so good luck to individual investors.

I think most individual investors know, or at least they will find out, that they are along for the ride. It's the institutional investors who call the shots. The best individual investors can hope to do is pick stocks they understand, and hold on for the ride. If they can't stomach that, then they should buy into a diversified range of index funds, set, and forget.

Excellent advice. Many people have trouble accepting these simple, yet robust, facts.

The only thing I would add: Individuals should not only stick to stocks they understand and hold on for the ride, but they should not be getting in on the ride unless they plan to be in it for a while (by which, I don't mean a few quarters).
post #25 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I'm not sure what you're saying here. Investing by adage is a bad idea; if that's all you've got, by all means go elsewhere. Individual investors attempting to be market timers is also a bad idea. The pros can't even do that with any consistency, so good luck to individual investors.

I think most individual investors know, or at least they will find out, that they are along for the ride. It's the institutional investors who call the shots. The best individual investors can hope to do is pick stocks they understand, and hold on for the ride. If they can't stomach that, then they should buy into a diversified range of index funds, set, and forget.

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Excellent advice. Many people have trouble accepting these simple, yet robust, facts.

The only thing I would add: Individuals should not only stick to stocks they understand and hold on for the ride, but they should not be getting in on the ride unless they plan to be in it for a while (by which, I don't mean a few quarters).

AI does not stand for Apple Investor.
Why are these threads always being hyjacked by these stockholders who think we are actually interested their dribble drabble? Can't they find another place more appropriate for their "theories" and "advice"?
post #26 of 29
Here, I fixed it...
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

AI does not stand for AppleStud Insider.
Why are these threads always being hyjacked by these complainers who think we are actually interested their dribble drabble? Can't they find another place more appropriate for their "compalints" and "advice"?

Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
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Progress is a comfortable disease
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post #27 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

Here, I fixed it...



post #28 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Excellent advice. Many people have trouble accepting these simple, yet robust, facts.

The only thing I would add: Individuals should not only stick to stocks they understand and hold on for the ride, but they should not be getting in on the ride unless they plan to be in it for a while (by which, I don't mean a few quarters).

Absolutely. The last ten years has made fools out of a lot of people who thought they knew how to time the market.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #29 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

AI does not stand for Apple Investor.

There are times that I look at some posts and think that it stands for Apple Idiot....
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