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Apple's iPhone predicted to find home at T-Mobile U.S. in 2010

post #1 of 61
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While rumors of a possible Verizon-compatible iPhone in 2010 persist, one analyst has predicted that Apple will instead bring the iPhone to another GSM-based carrier in the U.S.: T-Mobile.

In a note to investors released this week, Doug Reid of Thomas Weisel Partners said his firm believes that T-Mobile, and not Verizon, will be the beneficiary when Apple's exclusive agreement with AT&T expires next year. AT&T has likely realized this, he said, and has changed its advertising focus accordingly to be less focused on the iPhone.

"AT&T advertising in the United States has in recent weeks clearly shifted away from iPhone as the carrier likely readies itself to lose exclusivity in the United States (to T-Mobile and not to VZ, we believe) while VZ ads promoting Droid and other anti-iPhone devices appear to have intensified markedly," Reid said.

AT&T's exclusive contract with Apple for the iPhone is due to expire in 2010. While earlier this year there were reports that the wireless carrier was pushing to extend the agreement through 2011, those rumors have since cooled.

While the iPhone in its current iteration is compatible with T-Mobile's network, it is not capable of connecting to its high-speed 3G network, which operates on a unique 1700MHz spectrum. The iPhone is currently compatible with UMTS/HSDPA 3G connections at the frequencies 850MHz, 1900MHz and 2100MHz. It would be necessary, therefore, for Apple to build a new hardware model that supports T-Mobile's 3G frequency.

Those changes, though, are relatively minor compared to what would be necessary to make the iPhone compatible with Verizon's CDMA network -- a technology that, unlike the GSM network of AT&T and T-Mobile, is not widely used abroad. Recent rumors have suggested Apple could enter a deal with chip maker Qualcomm. While Qualcomm plans to have a dual-mode chip that would allow connection to both AT&T and Verizon available in 2010, some have said the new chip would be too cost prohibitive for Apple to adopt so soon.

AT&T's advertisements featuring actor Luke Wilson have focused on coverage area and network performance, rather than handsets. Apple recently, however, did join the discussion with a pair of ads that highlight the ability of the iPhone to handle calls and data at the same time -- a capability available on AT&T's network, but not from competitor Verizon.

Thomas Weisel Partners have set a price target of $245 for AAPL stock. They expect that 8.2 million iPhones will be sold in the December quarter, along with 20.45 million iPods and 3.06 million Macs. If those numbers prove accurate, it would top Apple's September 2009 quarter -- its best ever -- when the company sold 3 million Macs and 7.4 million iPhones to earn $1.67 billion in profit.
post #2 of 61
It makes sense that Apple will choose TMobile instead of Verizon. Verizon is anti-iPhone since day one. Every time Verizon debuts a new touch screen phone, it is featured as iPhone-killer. These latest ads about Droid has made it clear that Verizon hates iPhone, which is understandable.

Why then would Apple stoop to Verizon? TMobile makes more sense.
post #3 of 61
Yep, i can see this happening. Adding 1700Mhz HSPA support is nothing compared to adding CDMA compatibiity to it. The chances are VERY high that the next iPhone will have sport the 1700Mhz since the frequecy is also used in Japan and Canada (Wind mobile and Videotron).

Adi
post #4 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by OC4Theo View Post

It makes sense that Apple will choose TMobile instead of Verizon. Verizon is anti-iPhone since day one. Every time Verizon debuts a new touch screen phone, it is featured as iPhone-killer. These latest ads about Droid has made it clear that Verizon hates iPhone, which is understandable.

Why then would Apple stoop to Verizon? TMobile makes more sense.

It's called competition. They're both doing it. It isn't about one party "stooping" to another. Let me ask you, if you were in VZ's shoes... wouldn't you (while you didn't have the iPhone) want to promote YOUR phones against AT&T?

If Apple and VZ want the iPhone, then it will happen. All of this stuff that's happenin' in terms of marketing & advertising? That's exactly what that is... marketing and advertising. Quit letting it get to you, it makes you look insecure.

w00master
post #5 of 61
Since I have T-Mobile and am happy with their service, please be true! Pretty please.

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post #6 of 61
Woah an analyst that makes sense! Who would have thought?

Everyone has been drinking the Verizon/iPhone koolaid, but nothing about that ever made any sense. T-Mobile is a logical choice and would be best for consumers and apple. It would mean very little (if any change) to the iPhone hardware itself and allow for some (hopefully aggressive) price competition.

Verizon isn't happening people, at least not in the next 2 years. Get over it.
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post #7 of 61
Yes! Please! Finally some competition- in some form or another!
post #8 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

It would be necessary, therefore, for Apple to build a new hardware model that supports T-Mobile's 3G frequency.

I think this line may be confusing. Since Apple will have a new model next summer Apple has only to include the additional HW radio for that spectrum. I think many would read it that Apple would have to have a separate IPhone model in each capacity for each network.

The X-GOLD 616 and 618 both allow for up to 5 distinct HSPA spectrums. I’d wager one of these will be in the next iPhone…

http://www.infineon.com/cms/en/produ...12d7390ad9000a
Quote:
Qualcomm plans to have a dual-mode chip that would allow connection to both AT&T and Verizon available in 2010, some have said the new chip would be too cost prohibitive for Apple to adopt so soon.

I can’t imagine it being as small and power efficient as the GSM/3GSM chip currently used.


Quote:
Originally Posted by adisor19 View Post

Yep, i can see this happening. Adding 1700Mhz HSPA support is nothing compared to adding CDMA compatibiity to it. The chances are VERY high that the next iPhone will have sport the 1700Mhz since the frequecy is also used in Japan and Canada (Wind mobile and Videotron).

It does seems like the only viable option for Apple. They can still produce and stock one device for the US market without increasing their R&D and component costs much. They can get in with a carrier that they have a relationship with (Deutsche Telekom). T-Mobile has a solid following that prefer their network despite lower 3G coverage. But most of all from a business standpoint, they are the last carrier by size in the US and really need a killer device and are likely willing to give Apple what they want to get it.


Quote:
Originally Posted by w00master View Post

It's called competition. They're both doing it. It isn't about one party "stooping" to another. Let me ask you, if you were in VZ's shoes... wouldn't you (while you didn't have the iPhone) want to promote YOUR phones against AT&T?

If Apple and VZ want the iPhone, then it will happen. All of this stuff that's happenin' in terms of marketing & advertising? That's exactly what that is... marketing and advertising. Quit letting it get to you, it makes you look insecure.

He has a point. I can’t see Apple going with Verizon after directly attacking the iPhone. Have you ever heard of a carrier directly making ads that attack the mobile vendor’s product before? I haven’t.I am pretty sure that Verizon knew they had no chance of getting it at the time when they made that ad. In future, things can change, but for now it’s seems impossible.
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post #9 of 61
Well, Apple was bashing Intel chips for years before using them, so I still wouldn't rule out Verizon.
post #10 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by w00master View Post

It's called competition. They're both doing it. It isn't about one party "stooping" to another. Let me ask you, if you were in VZ's shoes... wouldn't you (while you didn't have the iPhone) want to promote YOUR phones against AT&T? w00master

I think jealousy and envious are better descriptive terms of Verizon when it comes to Apple's iPhone and AT&T.

I only say this, because before the iPhone, the "smart phones" that were out there by RIM, PALM and whoever, were never touted in the way they are now and compared to the iPhone. Verizon's "iDon't" commercials talking up the Droid never existed when a PALM phone "benefits" were compared to a RIM BlackBerry.

Unless I am wrong and someone can jog my memory by describing a smart phone tv commercial before the iPhone ever hit the market.

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post #11 of 61
Yuck- T- Mobile's map is even less full than AT&T's?
Do they still use Catherine Zeta Jones at least?
post #12 of 61
My money says that Apple buys T-Mobile and releases the tablet together. Pour a couple of billion into upgrading the network directly to 4G. It ties the macosphere together and there a few gajillion iPhone users who would switch instantly when their ATT contract ends.
post #13 of 61
An you talk and surf the web at the same time on tmobile's network?
post #14 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rot'nApple View Post

I think jealousy and envious are better descriptive terms of Verizon when it comes to Apple's iPhone and AT&T.

I only say this, because before the iPhone, the "smart phones" that were out there by RIM, PALM and whoever, were never touted in the way they are now and compared to the iPhone. Verizon's "iDon't" commercials talking up the Droid never existed when a PALM phone "benefits" were compared to a RIM BlackBerry.

Unless I am wrong and someone can jog my memory by describing a smart phone tv commercial before the iPhone ever hit the market.

Blackberry owned the market - why would there need to be a commercial?
Anyway Verizon and Droid apparently know what they are doing:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-30686_3-10...html?tag=mncol

http://cnettv.cnet.com/ep-1115-droid...html?tag=mncol
post #15 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by iansilv View Post

An you talk and surf the web at the same time on tmobile's network?

If you are on 3GSM or WiFi, then yes. If you are GSM(GPRS/EDGE) then no. Just like AT&Ts network.
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post #16 of 61
About every six months we hear about the exclusivity contract ending soon. I don't think anyone knows what hell they're talking about. I have yet to see tangible evidence of the exclusivity contract ending between the company's at a specified time. AT&T has only said that it wouldn't be exclusive forever. I do recall hearing that the exclusivity contract was originally for 2yrs and then extended to 5yrs. But, I probably don't know what I'm talking about either. I think these articles are a waste of time because, so far, every article saying exclusivity ending at a specified time have been 100% wrong (Though I could see a TMobile iPhone before a Verizon iPhone). If any AT&T execs or Apple execs want to share the truth about the length of the exclusivity, we're all ears.
post #17 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

If you are on 3GSM or WiFi, then yes. If you are GSM(GPRS/EDGE) then no. Just like AT&Ts network.

OK cool- so at least it's better than the situation with Verizon.
post #18 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaben View Post

About every six months we hear about the exclusivity contract ending soon. I don't think anyone knows what hell they're talking about. I have yet to see tangible evidence of the exclusivity contract ending between the company's at a specified time. AT&T has only said that it wouldn't be exclusive forever. I do recall hearing that the exclusivity contract was originally for 2yrs and then extended to 5yrs. But, I probably don't know what I'm talking about either. I think these articles are a waste of time because, so far, every article saying exclusivity ending at a specified time have been 100% wrong (Though I could see a TMobile iPhone before a Verizon iPhone). If any AT&T execs or Apple execs want to share the truth about the length of the exclusivity, we're all ears.

I think AT&Ts CEO saying that is a clear sign that the exclusivity is coming to its end. Originally it seemed like a 5 year deal, and then a 2 year deal with a 1 year extension for AT&T to agree to the ending of the profit sharing model that was originally set up. That, combined with AT&Ts network being pretty saturated with iPhone data usage already makes me think this rumour for T-Mobile, coming this summer, is the most logical one weve seen.
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post #19 of 61
Yup called that one. Since T Mobile USA already supports all iPhone features (like visual voicemail) via T Mobile Germany, it is a no brainer easy transition to T-Mobile. Also T-Mobile did not bash iPhone like Verizon did and has a decent enough coverage (at least here in chicago) for iPhone use.

Can't wait!
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post #20 of 61
For all the business or tech reasons Apple may shun VZ, I have to add to that - they pissed off Jobs and now he wants to spit beechnut in their eyes. I gotta say... People love T-Mobile service, but that could change once the new iPhone drags the network down.
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post #21 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"AT&T advertising in the United States has in recent weeks clearly shifted away from iPhone as the carrier likely readies itself to lose exclusivity in the United States (to T-Mobile and not to VZ, we believe) while VZ ads promoting Droid and other anti-iPhone devices appear to have intensified markedly," Reid said.

Really? When was AT&T ever allowed to advertise the iPhone? They weren't and never have. Part of the deal with Apple was Apple would control the advertising for the iPhone and based on recent AT&T ads that's probably a good thing. This is why the only mention of AT&T in Apple ads is at the very end with a quick 2 second logo before showing the Apple logo.

Is there no fact checking anymore? Guess copy n paste is the new media.
post #22 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by iansilv View Post

OK cool- so at least it's better than the situation with Verizon.

Verizon does have plenty of pros with their network, too.
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post #23 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by KangaMoJo View Post

My money says that Apple buys T-Mobile and releases the tablet together. Pour a couple of billion into upgrading the network directly to 4G. It ties the macosphere together and there a few gajillion iPhone users who would switch instantly when their ATT contract ends.

T-Mobile is the USA arm of Deutsche Telekom.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsche_Telekom
They are marching ahead with 4G LTE.
http://www.electronista.com/articles...direct.to.lte/
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post #24 of 61
Noticed a T-Mo ad today pushing 3G and this immediately came to my mind as well. I'm still a little suspicious about it though; it makes great sense for T-Mo as a way to come back and kick what is left of Sprint. It doesn't however do a whole lot for AT&T. If they couldn't get the QCom chip at the right price in the quantities they are looking at I would be quite surprised.

Maybe this means that the Google Phone will use VZ for data...?
post #25 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by 8CoreWhore View Post

They are marching ahead with 4G LTE.
http://www.electronista.com/articles...direct.to.lte/

More antennas! More, smaller base stations! Leverage all the WiFi hotspots!

If T-Mo really wants to make a push for it, LTE looks like too long-term of a plan. It would preserve capital, but it would keep their 3g (not to mention 2/2.5g) coverage pretty weak.
post #26 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Noticed a T-Mo ad today pushing 3G and this immediately came to my mind as well. I'm still a little suspicious about it though; it makes great sense for T-Mo as a way to come back and kick what is left of Sprint. It doesn't however do a whole lot for AT&T. If they couldn't get the QCom chip at the right price in the quantities they are looking at I would be quite surprised.

Maybe this means that the Google Phone will use VZ for data...?

Bingo! Google "phone" might be a data handset that taps into VZ 3G data only, then uses Google Voice as internet phone service. It would be similar to getting a 3G data card for your laptop... only the handset is like the laptop. Considering the FCC's position, VZ might not be able to say no.
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post #27 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rot'nApple View Post

Since I have T-Mobile and am happy with their service, please be true! Pretty please.

I'm also on T-mobile and would be interested.
post #28 of 61
When I had a Blackberry on T-Mobile, I was able to talk and use data at the same time. Apparently some EDGE towers support this, some don't. In Boston, they do. Slow as hell but still useful.
post #29 of 61
Hence all the iPhone bashing.

Verizon's CDMA network is slower than planned/future AT&T 3G of 7.2Mb and 14Mb and as we all know, does not support concurrent voice/data,,,,,which Apple is persistently advertising as a unique feature.
post #30 of 61
this would be AWESOME. and i don't use that word very often. awesome only because use the 'pay as you go plan' (currently, roughly 3 months for $25), then get rid of my land line.

my current t-mobile phone is nothing to write home about, but if it was an iphone, it would be a completely different story.

keeping my fingers crossed.
post #31 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Yuck- T- Mobile's map is even less full than AT&T's?
Do they still use Catherine Zeta Jones at least?

GIGGITY, GIGGITY... Oh, Yeah!... Catherine Zeta Jones is still out there for T-Mobile...



T-Mo may be less full then At&T but for the most part, I can't complain for my particular location on the Virginia coastal area...

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post #32 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Blackberry owned the market - why would there need to be a commercial?
Anyway Verizon and Droid apparently know what they are doing:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-30686_3-10...html?tag=mncol

http://cnettv.cnet.com/ep-1115-droid...html?tag=mncol

Didn't Blackberry own the Business Market? There would be no need for a commercial.

Wasn't Palm's TREO or Handspring's Visor and added accesories, etc. meant more for the consumer versus Blackberry business unit?

Verizon and Droid may know what they are doing... NOW... but from the testing of the Droid and Palm PRE at my local Best Buy, for me personally, I'm not impressed with either product and especially their much touted physical keyboards!

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post #33 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rot'nApple View Post

Didn't Blackberry own the Business Market? There would be no need for a commercial.

Wasn't Palm's TREO or Handspring's Visor and added accesories, etc. meant more for the consumer versus Blackberry business unit?

Verizon and Droid may know what they are doing... NOW... but from the testing of the Droid and Palm PRE at my local Best Buy, for me personally, I'm not impressed with either product and especially their much touted physical keyboards!

He doesnt understand that with a consumer product you have to advertise relentlessly. Especially if you own the market. Have you ever heard of a company saying, We have the most market share so lets stop wasting money on advertising? I havent. If that were the case then I wouldnt see Coca-Cola and McDonalds ads all the time. Maybe RiM should have advertised more.
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post #34 of 61
If it does happen, it will forced AT&T to drop prices. AT&T might have a bigger network but in some places their coverage is about the same. A iPhone with a T mobile unlimited everything plan for $99 or less a month will sure be sweet.
post #35 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by fraklinc View Post

If it does happen, it will forced AT&T to drop prices. AT&T might have a bigger network but in some places their coverage is about the same. A iPhone with a T mobile unlimited everything plan for $99 or less a month will sure be sweet.

Is that what they charge now for unlimited everything? I wouldnt bet on the iPhone falling into that category if interest is as high as i expect it to be. They could at least squeeze another $10 or $20 of customers, especially if they are subsidizing it as much as AT&T is.
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post #36 of 61
Its been annoying to see people claiming the iPhone is coming to Verizon. A) Not while Verizon is using CDMA, B) Not until Verizon and ATT switch to LTE

It just doesnt make sense to add functionality to something that is end of life. Verizon is moving to LTE, Tmobile is already on GSM like ATT (granted, different frequencies, but thats a much easier fix than CDMA support.
post #37 of 61
Just a quick note here: the iDon't ads are Motorola's not Verizon's. Verizon may accept them as Motorola's right to advertise their product, but not represent Verizon's ideas about the iPhone.
post #38 of 61
A few points in Tmobile's favor here.

First, Tmobile doesn't lock down their network nor even try to heavily modify their phones to use their own services. That would help them lure Apple.

Second, Tmobile tends to be very good about compensating for their network. They have no problem applying VOIP calling within certain plans.

Third and final point, people don't mind the network being a bit spotty when they pay a reasonable dollar. They really mind it when they pay top dollar though.

AT&T demands a $30 data plan even if you live in areas with no 3G. They don't allow you to hook up a used iPhone without a two year contract. In short they are ridiculous and Tmobile could easily grab some folks with a $25 data plan and free VOIP being included. Add in the ability to buy and finance an iPhone with a lower priced plan and they could grab some serious share.

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post #39 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

A few points in Tmobile's favor here.

First, Tmobile doesn't lock down their network nor even try to heavily modify their phones to use their own services. That would help them lure Apple.

Second, Tmobile tends to be very good about compensating for their network. They have no problem applying VOIP calling within certain plans.

Third and final point, people don't mind the network being a bit spotty when they pay a reasonable dollar. They really mind it when they pay top dollar though.

AT&T demands a $30 data plan even if you live in areas with no 3G. They don't allow you to hook up a used iPhone without a two year contract. In short they are ridiculous and Tmobile could easily grab some folks with a $25 data plan and free VOIP being included. Add in the ability to buy and finance an iPhone with a lower priced plan and they could grab some serious share.

T-Mobile doesn't lock down their stuff in the US because they can't --- they are too small in size and their network is full of cheap customers.

T-Mobile in Germany --- being part of Germany's incumbant landline giant, is a million times worst in locking stuff down --- because they can.
post #40 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by TechieFromTex View Post

Just a quick note here: the iDon't ads are Motorola's not Verizon's. Verizon may accept them as Motorola's right to advertise their product, but not represent Verizon's ideas about the iPhone.

Actually, this is an interesting point of confusion. The ads seem to be by Verizon. It's true that this is a Motorola handset, but Verizon appears to be pumping money into promoting it. Or it could be a situation of cooperative advertising. But if the consumer is confused about who is paying for the ad, then it opens a door to potential legal action.
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