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Mac sales projected to grow 26% in 2010, outpacing PC market

post #1 of 35
Thread Starter 
Apple is predicted to continue its gains on the rest of the PC market in 2010, with Mac sales projected to grow by 26 percent while the industry is forecast to see a 16 percent year-over-year increase.

If the predictions of Robert Cihra, analyst with Caris & Company, prove true, it would give Apple a total 4 percent market share for the 2010 calendar year. Cihra goes into great detail on his analysis in a note issued to investors Thursday morning. Due to Apple controlling its own product cycles, as well as pricing, he believes Mac units will grow at a rate of 1.6 times faster than the entire PC market. On average, the Mac has outpaced the PC market as a whole by 1.8 times over the last 12 quarters.

With just a 4 percent projected total market share in 2010, the Mac still has "considerable headroom" for gains, Cihra said. He believes the company is still the single-best stock investors can buy in the PC market.

"As the most (in fact only) innovative, highest-value (hardware+software) and profitable PC vendor, we estimate Apple having earned a Mac [average selling price] of $1,289 in CY09, down 10% [year over year] but still representing a premium of 1.8x vs. its Wintel peers," the report said. "Even more meaningful, we estimate Apple Macs generating a gross profit-per-unit of nearly $340, which is 2-3x our estimate for its peers, keeping us focused on AAPL as the single best PC market investment."

Caris & Company reiterated its recommendation to buy AAPL stock, and has maintained a price target of $260.



The report also noted a "brutal" erosion of the PC average selling price in 2009, dropping an estimated 16 percent year over year. Portable machines alone were said to have dropped more than 20 percent in price, driven by the popularity of low-cost netbooks.

In this respect, major PC manufacturers like HP are finally catching up with a trend originally achieved by Apple way back in the second quarter of 2007: notebook prices are dropping below desktop prices, as portable machines have become the new "mainstream" PC. Cihra said the first quarter of 2009 was the first time that HP's notebook average selling price dropped below that of its desktops, nearly two years after they had flipped for Apple.



Cihra expects the overall PC market to increase between 15 and 20 percent in 2010, with his current forecast at 16 percent. The report said that signs of turnaround in the PC market are showing, though the economy remains the wildcard in forecasting PC sales for next year.

In September, Apple again significantly outpaced the rest of the PC market, growing 16.4 percent globally year over year, while the market as a whole grew 2.3 percent. Due to Apple's premium-priced products, the company has a worldwide revenue share of about 10 percent, while its market share hovers just north of 4 percent.

Apple has been projected to sell 2.9 million Macs for the final, fourth quarter of 2009. The company's September 2009 quarter proved to be its best ever, with sales of 3 million Macs helping the company's profits rise more than 46 percent.
post #2 of 35
As the most (in fact only) innovative, highest-value (hardware+software) and profitable PC vendor

Nice to see someone gets it.
post #3 of 35
I think it should grow 36%- his number is too conservative.
post #4 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

I think it should grow 36%- his number is too conservative.

And all without matte screen options, too.
post #5 of 35
Now if they would only offer the matte display on the 13" macbook pro, I could join the party and buy one!

The 15" is just too big for the amount of travelling I do with my laptop.
post #6 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by debusoh View Post

Now if they would only offer the matte display on the 13" macbook pro, I could join the party and buy one!

The 15" is just too big for the amount of travelling I do with my laptop.

so sad
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post #7 of 35
So we may see a quarter with 4 million Macs sold in 2010. Probably Q4 2010.

The rest of the world needs to get on the Mac fever train.
post #8 of 35
The day Mac reaches 25% worldwide market share, Windows will be history in three years. The horrible Windows experience is maintained by inertia and ignorance.
post #9 of 35
They'd grow by one more sale right here if they'd hurry up and introduce a quad core MacBook Pro dammit! I need a new computer!\
post #10 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by debusoh View Post

Now if they would only offer the matte display on the 13" macbook pro, I could join the party and buy one!

The 15" is just too big for the amount of travelling I do with my laptop.

I hear you. I too wait and wait and wait............................................zz zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
post #11 of 35
Shouldn't "...outpacing PC market" read _ "...continue outpacing PC market"?

Meanwhile ... A PC die hard friend of mine upon reading the latest Black Screen issue was affecting XP, Vista AND the newly claimed 'safer' 7 told me that was the last straw and ordered a 27" iMac i7.
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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post #12 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Meanwhile ... A PC die hard friend of mine upon reading the latest Black Screen issue was affecting XP, Vista AND the newly claimed 'safer' 7 told me that was the last straw and ordered a 27" iMac i7.

Hopefully his i7 won't be DOA, like a handful of them have been, because then he's screwed.
Multiplex is an online comic strip about the staff of a movie theater.
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Multiplex is an online comic strip about the staff of a movie theater.
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post #13 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by gmcalpin View Post

Hopefully his i7 won't be DOA, like a handful of them have been, because then he's screwed.

post #14 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by gmcalpin View Post

Hopefully his i7 won't be DOA, like a handful of them have been, because then he's screwed.

Supposedly you can return them.
post #15 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Due to Apple controlling its own product cycles, as well as pricing, he believes Mac units will grow at a rate of 1.6 times faster than the entire PC market. On average, the Mac has outpaced the PC market as a whole by 1.8 times over the last 12 quarters.

OOO so Apple will be the company example of how socialism make an economy better! YAY! I love socialism!
post #16 of 35
Apple is an example of socialism?
They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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post #17 of 35
Off topic slightly ... But could widen gap even more if Apple have these planned. Just seen on BBC web site ... Intel unveils 48-core cloud computing silicon chip ... I hope Apple jump on these for new Mac Pros. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/8392392.stm
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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post #18 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

Supposedly you can return them.

of course you can return it. Or if you have an Apple store nearby you can possibly get it fixed. And you should try. Because without those Bar appts, Apple doesn't get the data needed to fix the problem as quick. They would have to wait for the machines to come back and then strip them down and test them. The Bar gets the data in a lot faster. So faster turnaround on analysis and a fix.

Plus given the number of those 'dead' i7s that had screen damage that might have been partially, if not totally, the fault of poor handling, perhaps the DOA is due to a totally replaceable part being dislodged or broken. I for one would rather take a custom machine into a store and find out that the problem was the ram being loosened during delivery, or a connector dislodged, or even have broken glass replaced over a working screen with no dead pixels etc than deal with the hassle of boxing the whole thing up to ship back and waiting another 1-2 weeks for them to build me a new machine and ship it. Especially if it is possible the new one could also be mistreated and come busted. Which if the carriers are to any degree to blame is a risk.

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #19 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Apple is an example of socialism?

In the new political dictionary, everything you don't like for any reason is an example of socialism, or fascism, or both.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #20 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

In the new political dictionary, everything you don't like for any reason is an example of socialism, or fascism, or both.

Yeah, I was kinda afraid it was something like that.
They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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post #21 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

In the new political dictionary, everything you don't like for any reason is an example of socialism, or fascism, or both.

Sadly, this is true.
post #22 of 35
Someone should publish "The New Political Dictionary." It only has two words: "patriot", and "supersocialcommunisticislamofascistdocious."
They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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post #23 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

As the most (in fact only) innovative, highest-value (hardware+software) and profitable PC vendor

Nice to see someone gets it.

This is why Apple grows and the PC market doesn't.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5oGaZIKYvo
Oooops!
post #24 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Yeah, I was kinda afraid it was something like that.

I don't want to change the thread topic, but it is a great curiosity to me how often this gambit is used these days. Instead of stating reasons why you don't like a thing, and justifying and maybe even having to defend those reasons, you can satisfy your emotional need to gripe by giving it an arbitrary label, and you're done.

"All human beings should try to learn before they die what they are running from, and to, and why."
Please don't be insane.
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post #25 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by debusoh View Post

Now if they would only offer the matte display on the 13" macbook pro, I could join the party and buy one!

The 15" is just too big for the amount of travelling I do with my laptop.

I have a 13" macbook pro, you get used to the darn shine. The display is bright enough to compensate for the glare. What I can't get use to is the size; it is difficult to work with two documents side by side. I miss my 15" macbook pro...it had a matte screen, but the display was not as bright.
post #26 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I don't want to change the thread topic, but it is a great curiosity to me how often this gambit is used these days. Instead of stating reasons why you don't like a thing, and justifying and maybe even having to defend those reasons, you can satisfy your emotional need to gripe by giving it an arbitrary label, and you're done.

Oh, great! Supersocialcommunisticislamofascistdocious propaganda from Dr Millmoss!
post #27 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelt View Post

Oh, great! Supersocialcommunisticislamofascistdocious propaganda from Dr Millmoss!

What else?
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #28 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by eehd View Post

I have a 13" macbook pro, you get used to the darn shine. The display is bright enough to compensate for the glare. What I can't get use to is the size; it is difficult to work with two documents side by side. I miss my 15" macbook pro...it had a matte screen, but the display was not as bright.

I have seriously thought about the 15" version, but I spend a lot of time on commuter trains and don't think I will be able fully open the display without hitting the seat in front of me. I really want to start taking advantage of the 2 hours a day I spend on a train and being able to use the computer comfortably is key.
post #29 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by debusoh View Post

I have seriously thought about the 15" version, but I spend a lot of time on commuter trains and don't think I will be able fully open the display without hitting the seat in front of me. I really want to start taking advantage of the 2 hours a day I spend on a train and being able to use the computer comfortably is key.

I see your point; an inch can make a difference in the angle of the screen when you have limited space. What I would recommend is get the 13" macbook pro and get the 3M privacy filter (http://www.shop3m.com/98044045981.ht...acyFilters_POW). These filters have a glossy and a matte side. I had one for my 15" one, as I used to have a long train commute, too.
post #30 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by debusoh View Post

I have seriously thought about the 15" version, but I spend a lot of time on commuter trains and don't think I will be able fully open the display without hitting the seat in front of me. I really want to start taking advantage of the 2 hours a day I spend on a train and being able to use the computer comfortably is key.

I agree if over 50% of your time is 'carrying/using' your laptop the MB or MBP 13 is best. But if over 50% of the time it's on the desktop then the 15 is the way to go. The 17 is like carrying around your own tombstone!

If you have an iMac at work/home....I'd wait and get the MBA or the Tablet if it is close to a laptop's capabilities rather than just a big Touch.

I personally am going to get the next MBA iteration with hopefully a glass trackpad, some more memory and the Solid State HD (I think that's the right description of the HD)

My goal in 2010 is to upgrade to the 27 iMac, already have the 3Gs iPhone and then get the new MBA and probably the Tablet...why I don't know!

Best!
post #31 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by eehd View Post

I have a 13" macbook pro, you get used to the darn shine. The display is bright enough to compensate for the glare. What I can't get use to is the size; it is difficult to work with two documents side by side. I miss my 15" macbook pro...it had a matte screen, but the display was not as bright.

I've never used a display less than 20 inches on a daily basis since 1998 until I got my 15" MBP last year. I am planing on getting Apple's LED display late next year to go along with my next 15" MBP (hopefully a quad core by then).
post #32 of 35
Everytime someone buys a Mac, Steve Jobs banks $340 in gross profit-per-unit. This is two to three times that of a Windows PC. In other words Jobs could sell his gizmos for a third of the price, but the fact he just convinces people to buy them at that price means he gets huge wodges of cash.

Cihra thinks that they will have to go a long way before they are anything like value for money. But people are still dumb enough to buy them anyway.
post #33 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by gescom View Post

Everytime someone buys a Mac, Steve Jobs banks $340 in gross profit-per-unit. This is two to three times that of a Windows PC. In other words Jobs could sell his gizmos for a third of the price, but the fact he just convinces people to buy them at that price means he gets huge wodges of cash.

Cihra thinks that they will have to go a long way before they are anything like value for money. But people are still dumb enough to buy them anyway.

exactly
hey dude
you failed to mention the 3,1 million victims forced at gun point to buy a mac last quarter/

SJ makes one dollar a yr
.
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post #34 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

I agree if over 50% of your time is 'carrying/using' your laptop the MB or MBP 13 is best. But if over 50% of the time it's on the desktop then the 15 is the way to go. The 17 is like carrying around your own tombstone!

If you have an iMac at work/home....I'd wait and get the MBA or the Tablet if it is close to a laptop's capabilities rather than just a big Touch.

I personally am going to get the next MBA iteration with hopefully a glass trackpad, some more memory and the Solid State HD (I think that's the right description of the HD)

My goal in 2010 is to upgrade to the 27 iMac, already have the 3Gs iPhone and then get the new MBA and probably the Tablet...why I don't know!

Best!

i also commute ferry subway nyc
and THE 15in 2 chip setup made it a no brainer
for the games and so my mac won't be obsolete in 8 minutes
but if you don't need all that extra jazz then a 13 in if fine

peace 9
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post #35 of 35
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