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Tablet rumors: February production start, 10-inch LCD screen

post #1 of 113
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Checks within Apple's supply chain have led to a new round of tablet-related rumors from one analyst, who believes the device will launch in March or April of 2010 with a 10.1-inch LCD screen.

Yair Reiner, analyst with Oppenheimer, revealed his latest tablet news in a note to investors issued Wednesday morning. He also said that Apple has been reaching out to book publishers with a "very attractive proposal" for offering content on a forthcoming ebook platform.

Reiner believes the tablet could provide an additional 50 cents to 75 cents in earnings per share for AAPL stock.

"Our checks into Apple's supply chain indicate the manufacturing cogs for the tablet are creaking into action and should begin to hit a mass market stride in February," the note said. "At this stage Apple appears to be sizing its supply chain to support production of as many as 1M units per month."

Reiner said Apple would likely need at least five or six weeks of inventory built up before it can release the product, positioning a likely launch in March or April. Such a launch would assume there are no production issues, like the one believed to have led to the last-minute removal of a camera from the latest iPod touch.

He also said that the device will have a 10.1-inch multi-touch display using LTPS LCD technology, the same as on the iPhone. He specifically disputed an earlier report that a high-end model would sport an OLED display.

Apple is also said to be offering publishers a deal that will allow them to release their content on other online stores, such as for Amazon's Kindle, or for new, forthcoming digital storefronts from major publishers. But Apple could sweeten the pot by offering a better deal than some companies, like Amazon, currently offer.

"Contacts in the U.S. tell us Apple is approaching book publishers with a very attractive proposal for distributing their content," Reiner said. "Apple will split revenue 30/70 (Apple/publisher); give the same deal to all comers; and not request exclusivity. We believe the typical Kindle split is 50/50, rising to 30/70 if Kindle is given ebook exclusivity."

He went on to say that the Kindle has "disgruntled the publishing industry" by strong-arming companies into exclusivity through a "wolfish cut of revenue" taken if they sell their content elsewhere. The Kindle also does not allow advertising in content it sells for its device.

"The tablet is set to change that," Reiner said. "It should also make ebooks more relevant for education by simplifying functions such as scribbling marginalia."

Oppenheimer predicts that the company could sell between 1 million and 1.5 million devices per quarter at an average selling price of $1,000. The company has a price target of $235 for AAPL stock.
post #2 of 113
Just another analyst talking. I believe it when I see it.
post #3 of 113
So Apple is building a tablet then - oh, good.
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post #4 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roos24 View Post

Just another analyst talking. I believe it when I see it.

$1000? Really. That's much to high. It had better play flash and record at that price and not just be a book reader.
Peace.
post #5 of 113
Apple should no doubts hold some kick-off event in Q1'10. This is when and where the thing is probably gonna be announced.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"It should also make ebooks more relevant for education by simplyfing functions such as scribbling marginalia."

Perfect business case and an inexhaustible market. Where then are all those schoolbook publishers wandering around now?

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post #6 of 113
Why would anyone want to buy the tablet for $1000? I'd rather buy a MacBook for that price. If it's in the typical netbook price range, say $400-600, then I'd consider purchasing it.
post #7 of 113
I agree needs to be much cheaper than that.

The report sounds pretty crappy with terms like this in it "are creating into action". You only use terms like that when you don't know what you're talking about.

Apple Insider why don't you include, or make available, full copies of these analyst reports you source news from?
post #8 of 113
No way the average price will be $1000. Remember when Job's sent the inflated price iphone out there and had to drop the price ... and then give customers a refund!

The average price implies there will be models more expensive than macbook. Remember this thing will have no keyboard or mouse.

This analyst doesn't appear to understand apple market dynamics.
post #9 of 113
Wow I had no idea the Apple tablet was going to fail...

Because it will at $1000
post #10 of 113
In case you hadn't noticed, there are plenty of people who are willing to pay if the device is "cool" enough.

The iPhone surely was. I stood in line for three hours for the first one. The $100 rebate was nice, but I would have been happy regardless.

What's important is that these Apple products have profoundly changed their respective industries, as well as people's lives.

The Apple Tablet stands to do it again, especially if Apple is offering decent terms and non-exclusivity. Kindle is about to be blown out of the water. And this major-publisher alliance is going to be hard put to compete, as well.

Daniel Swanson

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Daniel Swanson

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post #11 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Wow I had no idea the Apple tablet was going to fail...

Because it will at $1000

I'm waiting for the $200 CrunchPad that Mike Arrington says will be "dead simple" to make. He's promising it to us "any day now".
post #12 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevetim View Post

No way the average price will be $1000. Remember when Job's sent the inflated price iphone out there and had to drop the price ... and then give customers a refund!

The average price implies there will be models more expensive than macbook. Remember this thing will have no keyboard or mouse.

This analyst doesn't appear to understand apple market dynamics.

Yeah, I agree with and most posting here. 400-600 and I'd by it. Anything more than that....my iphone will will suffice
post #13 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by DanielSW View Post

In case you hadn't noticed, there are plenty of people who are willing to pay if the device is "cool" enough.

The iPhone surely was. I stood in line for three hours for the first one. The $100 rebate was nice, but I would have been happy regardless.

What's important is that these Apple products have profoundly changed their respective industries, as well as people's lives.

The Apple Tablet stands to do it again, especially if Apple is offering decent terms and non-exclusivity. Kindle is about to be blown out of the water. And this major-publisher alliance is going to be hard put to compete, as well.

The Apple tablet stands to do nothing. The "plenty of people" you refer to are the tech geeks and Apple fanbois. About 5 million people who live in the U.S. That's nothing. Its a drop in the bucket. That's exactly what Apple could count on if was an Apple Logo Turntable being released instead.

The fan base is not a market. The fan base is not a market. The fan base is not a market.

The only reason for Apple's break out success with the iPhone, as an Apple product, is that its a PHONE. One of the most popular types of devices, and one of the largest retail markets in the world. Larger than the PC which they've already struggled to make headway in.

They designed an excellent phone, and have sold a LOT. They will continue to. However. Apple did not create Mobile Phone Buyers, or the market they buy in. They were already there, desperately waiting for a great product to come along.

Where is the market for this device thats waiting for greatness to come? It's not there, And a $1000, its nothing more than a fantasy.
post #14 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnePotato View Post

I'm waiting for the $200 CrunchPad that Mike Arrington says will be "dead simple" to make. He's promising it to us "any day now".

you'll wait a long time because it's now the Joo Joo, costs $500 and Mike is no longer in the picture, just Fusion Garage. See http://thejoojoo.com

at least it isn't a rumor and you can get it this Friday, the 11th!
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post #15 of 113
Agreed here as well: $1000 is way too high.

Then again, this is just an analyst's rumor (two big strikes right there).
I'll wait to see what actually ships (if anything).
post #16 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

The Apple tablet stands to do nothing. The "plenty of people" you refer to are the tech geeks and Apple fanbois. About 5 million people who live in the U.S. That's nothing. Its a drop in the bucket. That's exactly what Apple could count on if was an Apple Logo Turntable being released instead.

The fan base is not a market. The fan base is not a market. The fan base is not a market.

The only reason for Apple's break out success with the iPhone, as an Apple product, is that its a PHONE. One of the most popular types of devices, and one of the largest retail markets in the world. Larger than the PC which they've already struggled to make headway in.

They designed an excellent phone, and have sold a LOT. They will continue to. However. Apple did not create Mobile Phone Buyers, or the market they buy in. They were already there, desperately waiting for a great product to come along.

Where is the market for this device thats waiting for greatness to come? It's not there, And a $1000, its nothing more than a fantasy.

Apple has gained tremendous non "fan based" mindshare through the sale of the iphone and Ipod touch. I believe you are missing this very critical point.
post #17 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by hiimamac View Post

$1000? Really. That's much to high. It had better play flash and record at that price and not just be a book reader.
Peace.


agreed... you might as well buy a macbook for that price?
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post #18 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

The Apple tablet stands to do nothing. The "plenty of people" you refer to are the tech geeks and Apple fanbois. About 5 million people who live in the U.S. That's nothing. Its a drop in the bucket. That's exactly what Apple could count on if was an Apple Logo Turntable being released instead

I agree with your thoughts, and i was wondering about the "tech geeks and Apple fanbois. 5 million people who live in the U.S."
how did you come by this figure?
post #19 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boogerman2000 View Post

Apple has gained tremendous non "fan based" mindshare through the sale of the iphone and Ipod touch. I believe you are missing this very critical point.

i know quite a few people with an iphone, most of them not apple geeks etc, most of them not even apple computer users. they're all happy with the iphone, but not one of them has any interest yet in buying a tablet. of course they may become interested if and when it is announced, but right now none of these non-geeks can see a point in a tablet

as the other poster stated: the interest in a "new phone" was there before iphone was released, many of us felt we were lacking an intelligent, well designed phone, but not many people feel they are lacking a tablet in their daily lives. most i've talked to ask me "i have a laptop and an iphone already, why would i want a third device to carry around, a computer without a keyboard but too big to put in my pocket?"

when i iphone was launched, it was clear why it was desirable.
post #20 of 113
I agree that $1000 is too high. But those saying they won't buy one unless it's $400... well, I guess you won't be buying one.

The high-end touch is $400, and you are looking for the same price point for something with 4-5 times the screen real estate? I'd guess a $600-800 price range would be more reasonable. And if it's at the low end of that range Apple would probably have to lower the price of the touch (which would cause sales of the touch to sky rocket).
post #21 of 113
I would assume Amazon will now be reconsidering their pricing splits and exclusivity arrangements at this morning's emergency boardroom meeting. Everyone in this business must be trying to position themselves as best they can in advance of the Apple juggernaut they all know is approaching fast.
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post #22 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boogerman2000 View Post

Apple has gained tremendous non "fan based" mindshare through the sale of the iphone and Ipod touch. I believe you are missing this very critical point.

There's a huge difference between iphone and ipod owners and Apple lemmings. You're missing that point. Just because people bought the ipod/iphone does not make them top of the line geeks/apple fanbois willing to spend $1000's of dollars on anything apple puts out.
post #23 of 113
It'll be $800 to a $1000 at launch, maybe more. Apple doesn't sell things at a loss. I expect there will be two versions a la iTouch/iPhone so the more expensive version will probably be subsidised if bought with contract.

Its a breakthrough device - its bound to be costly at birth. They still won't be able to make enough of them.
post #24 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by davidT View Post

i know quite a few people with an iphone, most of them not apple geeks etc, most of them not even apple computer users. they're all happy with the iphone, but not one of them has any interest yet in buying a tablet. of course they may become interested if and when it is announced, but right now none of these non-geeks can see a point in a tablet

as the other poster stated: the interest in a "new phone" was there before iphone was released, many of us felt we were lacking an intelligent, well designed phone, but not many people feel they are lacking a tablet in their daily lives. most i've talked to ask me "i have a laptop and an iphone already, why would i want a third device to carry around, a computer without a keyboard but too big to put in my pocket?"

when i iphone was launched, it was clear why it was desirable.

To you and to me it was clear, but truth be told, to many it wasn't. Ballmer certainly expressed his opinion publicly enough. I predict a similar reaction to the Tablet. In a few years from now, in hindsight, many late adopters will be won over eventually by Apple's success, design, features and quality. Many early adopters will reiterate your last paragraph about the tablet as they saw a clear need... and of course many Apple fans, like me, just had to have one what-ever lol.
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post #25 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

The Apple tablet stands to do nothing. The "plenty of people" you refer to are the tech geeks and Apple fanbois. About 5 million people who live in the U.S. That's nothing. Its a drop in the bucket. That's exactly what Apple could count on if was an Apple Logo Turntable being released instead.

The fan base is not a market. The fan base is not a market. The fan base is not a market.

The only reason for Apple's break out success with the iPhone, as an Apple product, is that its a PHONE. One of the most popular types of devices, and one of the largest retail markets in the world. Larger than the PC which they've already struggled to make headway in.

They designed an excellent phone, and have sold a LOT. They will continue to. However. Apple did not create Mobile Phone Buyers, or the market they buy in. They were already there, desperately waiting for a great product to come along.

Where is the market for this device thats waiting for greatness to come? It's not there, And a $1000, its nothing more than a fantasy.

I recall being told many times in this forum, pre iPhone release, that the reason Apple's entry into the phone market was doomed was because the market did already exist and therefore they didn't stand a chance. Now in hindsight the argument is being reversed by you.

I will wait to see but I suspect Apple is about to create an entirely new ecosystem / market for the Tablet that will attract way more than the 5 million you claim - actually now 5 million and 1 (I moved from UK to USA lol).
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post #26 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomohr View Post

agreed... you might as well buy a macbook for that price?

You buy a tablet because you want to compute in places that don't have desks for a clamshell computer and/or benefit more from touch/pen interaction than keyboard interaction.

Saying 'you might as well buy a macbook' is like telling someone that they might as well buy a Laptop instead of a smartphone.

They're different things with very different use cases.

Frankly, the thing has to cost ~$1000. Because it's going to eat into MacBook sales in a very real way.
post #27 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

To you and to me it was clear, but truth be told, to many it wasn't. Ballmer certainly expressed his opinion publicly enough. I predict a similar reaction to the Tablet. In a few years from now, in hindsight, many late adopters will be won over eventually by Apple's success, design, features and quality. Many early adopters will reiterate your last paragraph about the tablet as they saw a clear need... and of course many Apple fans, like me, just had to have one what-ever lol.

truth told, i am still wondering what exactly the rumoured tablet might be capable of, a feature that i really need... can't think of much. except maybe an interesting multi-touch input device for live music performance (like the lemur, but lighter and cheaper)
with the iphone it was pretty clear what i needed (mail, internet, sync calendars, ipod etc) , and it delivered a whole lot more (eg app store).
the tablet: apart from the novelty of a new apple device, what unknown desire could it fulfill ? :-)

excited, but scratching my head...
post #28 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

The Apple tablet stands to do nothing. The "plenty of people" you refer to are the tech geeks and Apple fanbois. About 5 million people who live in the U.S. That's nothing. Its a drop in the bucket. That's exactly what Apple could count on if was an Apple Logo Turntable being released instead.

The fan base is not a market. The fan base is not a market. The fan base is not a market.

The only reason for Apple's break out success with the iPhone, as an Apple product, is that its a PHONE. One of the most popular types of devices, and one of the largest retail markets in the world. Larger than the PC which they've already struggled to make headway in.

They designed an excellent phone, and have sold a LOT. They will continue to. However. Apple did not create Mobile Phone Buyers, or the market they buy in. They were already there, desperately waiting for a great product to come along.

Where is the market for this device thats waiting for greatness to come? It's not there, And a $1000, its nothing more than a fantasy.

When Apple released the very first iPod it cost $500, and people screamed that it was doomed because there was no market for MP3 players. Apple knows how to create a new market.
post #29 of 113
My guess is that the "average selling price of $1000" is what Apple will recognize as revenue, not what the consumer will pay: That will be closer to $600 - $700, because of the possible carrier subsidy (presumably, the Tablet will have Edge/3G?).
post #30 of 113
This sounds very interesting. I am looking forward to seeing what specs this Apple tablet may have..
post #31 of 113
The device promises to be of extreme interest simply due to the fact that it's evidently gonna implement stylus input via capacitive multi-touch screen.

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post #32 of 113
1k, stop yer bitchin an don't buy it.

I'll put my name down for one now thanks.

Hope it is fluid proof, I don't want the possibility of my lunch spilling on it on the way to work. Watermelon (or worst beetroot) manages to find some way to leak out of it's packaging onto my books sometimes grr.
post #33 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

My guess is that the "average selling price of $1000" is what Apple will recognize as revenue, not what the consumer will pay: That will be closer to $600 - $700, because of the possible carrier subsidy (presumably, the Tablet will have Edge/3G?).

As psyched as I am about this long-rumored tablet, I'm certainly not looking forward to another potential monthly expense. Unless, of course, they let you add it to your existing iPhone data plan for another $10-$15/month.
post #34 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by 25+ years on a Mac View Post

Why would anyone want to buy the tablet for $1000? I'd rather buy a MacBook for that price. If it's in the typical netbook price range, say $400-600, then I'd consider purchasing it.

Netbooks that actually work and actually sell in the marketplace are really more in the 600-800 price range.

People always claim they got such and such netbook for some ridiculously low price but the ones that work are always at least $600. I would expect Apple's to be in the top end of the category as usual and come in at about $800. Unless that rumour of a "ridiculously cheap" price point is true then we are talking $650.
post #35 of 113
I'm predicting that it will have a transreflective LCD. Great for outdoors and indoors viewing. No need for eink's monochrome slow refresh rate.
post #36 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by Appleinsider

"Contacts in the U.S. tell us Apple is approaching book publishers with a very attractive proposal for distributing their content," Reiner said. "Apple will split revenue 30/70 (Apple/publisher); give the same deal to all comers; and not request exclusivity. We believe the typical Kindle split is 50/50, rising to 30/70 if Kindle is given ebook exclusivity."

I thought it was a 70/30 in Amazons favour. If so, then the 30/70 in the publishers favour would be a much better. Plus, even though the Kindle has some success its only sold on one store and its quite pathetic from a CE standpoint. As is the Nook, from the reviews Ive read. The best ones Ive seen, yet still flawed, are the Sony eReaders. I think making a colour device with rich media capabilities is much more marketable. I just hope they get the UI right.


Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Wow I had no idea the Apple tablet was going to fail...

Because it will at $1000

Ballmer is that you? j/k But that is sounding a lot like what he said about the iPhone.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

The only reason for Apple's break out success with the iPhone, as an Apple product, is that its a PHONE. One of the most popular types of devices, and one of the largest retail markets in the world.

Back in 2007 that EXACT argument was used as proof that the iPhone would fail. Such an entrenched, well developed market that the expensive iPhone could not possibly succeed in getting 1% of the handset market. Now its not flagship phone in the world that all phones are measured by, its copied by everyone, it accounts for 15% of the super-mega-mega-high-tech S. Korean smartphone market, and takes in more profit than any other handset maker in the world. All in just over 2 years of operation.

Im not sure we should counting an Apple tablet out just yet.


Quote:
Originally Posted by jsmythe00 View Post

Yeah, I agree with and most posting here. 400-600 and I'd by it. Anything more than that....my iphone will will suffice

I know many people that had no interest in smartphones prior to the iPhone. Most of these never paid more than $50 for a cheap phone from their carrier but now have a 16GB or 32GB iPhone.

I think a tablet can work on two different type so users, and within those two types there are two types, for a total of 4 types of users and thus 4 basic types of users.

1) WiFi-only, high NAND for heavy A/V media user $900
2) WiFi-only, small NAND for heavy reading user $700
3) 3GSM+WiFi, high NAND for heavy A/V media user $500
4) 3GSM+WiFi, small NAND for heavy reading user $400

(These price points and user types are very, very generalized)
Id like to see a 64GB or 128GB device and have a 3GSM chip for remote data access. Having a USB port so i can potentially stick in a big cellular data stick isnt going to cut it. Others simply wont want or need that much data or mobile network operator access. I think Apple really is in a pinch here with a device that needs to work for 4 distant groups out of the gate.

edit: Pipped by Digitalclips.

PS: One more Teckstud-free day. Enjoy it!
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post #37 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

The Apple tablet stands to do nothing. The "plenty of people" you refer to are the tech geeks and Apple fanbois. About 5 million people who live in the U.S. That's nothing. Its a drop in the bucket. That's exactly what Apple could count on if was an Apple Logo Turntable being released instead.

The fan base is not a market. The fan base is not a market. The fan base is not a market.

The only reason for Apple's break out success with the iPhone, as an Apple product, is that its a PHONE. One of the most popular types of devices, and one of the largest retail markets in the world. Larger than the PC which they've already struggled to make headway in.

They designed an excellent phone, and have sold a LOT. They will continue to. However. Apple did not create Mobile Phone Buyers, or the market they buy in. They were already there, desperately waiting for a great product to come along.


Where is the market for this device thats waiting for greatness to come? It's not there, And a $1000, its nothing more than a fantasy.

This is solid analysis. Nicely done.
post #38 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob55 View Post

As psyched as I am about this long-rumored tablet, I'm certainly not looking forward to another potential monthly expense. Unless, of course, they let you add it to your existing iPhone data plan for another $10-$15/month.

That price point isnt likely. Data plans is usually $30 and above for cellphones. Data-only packages for PCs and PC like devices are $60/month. Even adding tethering ups the additional charge to the phone by $30 in the US.

I can imagine that everyone wants to pay for data so Id wager it will be an optional charge, but youll have to pay the additional $300(?) if you dont.
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post #39 of 113
3 words: multitouch, multitask, multiuse

it will be compelling for three reasons
unlike a notebook, it is a completely different form factor that will make it useful in different ways. Does your notebook have multitouch imput? Can you use it comfortably while walking around? Does it have GPS?

You can use an iPhone while walking around however you are constrained in two major ways. The screen is small and limits the amount and quality of the information on screen. Second, the device doesnt do true multitasking. You can't open up two emails and compare them or text while surfing the web. The larger display combined with more powerful hardware is going to make it attractive to power users. Mobile proffesionals and hospitals will love it.

Finally, it will be successful because it will be a multiuse device. Unlike the kindle and nook which are dumb tablets, the Apple tablet will be a smart Tablet. That can do a lot more than just a few basic functions. Once you combine the great apple harware + apple OS + creative developers, we will see a 100,000 uses for a large tablet that will drive sales and kill the competition.
post #40 of 113
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

That price point isnt likely. Data plans is usually $30 and above for cellphones. Data-only packages for PCs and PC like devices are $60/month. Even adding tethering ups the additional charge to the phone by $30 in the US.

I can imagine that everyone wants to pay for data so Id wager it will be an optional charge, but youll have to pay the additional $300(?) if you dont.

Allowing the device to be tethered would be a better option for connectivity I would have thought (with the compliance of carriers of course). I can't understand why one should be expected to maintain two accounts with telcos. \

While Apple is at it, a nice docking slot for an iPhone, the functionality of which would be subsumed by the tablet (did I say tablet?) while docked.
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