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Piper: Apple's next big iPhone feature is Verizon

post #1 of 55
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While some investors have expressed concern that Apple cannot continue its level of innovation attained thus far with the iPhone, one analyst believes the Verizon network will be the "next big feature" for Apple's handset.

Apple can maintain its "rapid pace of innovation," analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray said Wednesday, as it prepares to enter the second chapter of the iPhone story, through software and accessories, as well as the Verizon network. In a note to investors, he said he believes that the platform could see 40 percent growth in the calendar year 2010.

"We continue to believe there is a 70% chance that Apple will launch the iPhone with Verizon in mid-CY10," Munster wrote. "Currently, the iPhone is available to 82m AT&T subs in the U.S.; adding Verizon would more than double the addressable market, adding 89 m U.S. customers."

Munster's 70 percent figure is borrowed from colleague Chris Larsen, Pipe Jaffray's telecom services analyst. He has forecast favorable odds for Apple to align with Verizon and launch a new handset capable with the CDMA network in 2010.

As of late, analysts have been torn on the prospect of the iPhone debuting with Verizon in 2010. Some feel a deal is unlike and too complicated to be hammered out in the next year, viewing T-Mobile and its iPhone-compatible GSM network as a more likely option. But other recent rumors suggest Apple has been in talks with chip maker Qualcomm for a potential new CDMA-compatible iPhone model.

Beyond Verizon, Munster also expects the iPhone to see rapid expansion in the realm of applications and accessories. He believes that the addition of various external accessories that could work with accompanying App Store software, or new built-in features like RFID, could add even more functionality to the device. "We've just scratched the surface," said Munster.

In November, reports surfaced that Apple built new iPhone prototypes with hardware support for sensing RFID chips. Such technology could enable a variety of technologies such as swipe payments, allowing the handset to be used to pay for items at checkout, or to gather information from kiosks or objects.

"The iPhone could feasibly become a full digital wallet, similar to other phone models in select use cases worldwide," he said. "But with Apple, the iPhone, iPod touch and iTunes accounts that each have an associated credit card, is uniquely positioned to make mobile payment a reality in the U.S. While limitations still exist in terms of payment receipt terminals at gas stations, restaurants, public transit facilities, etc., we believe that over the next several years Apple will extend the iPhone's functionality with a widely available mobile payment platform."

Tuesday, Munster issued a note stating that a recent drop in Apple's stock price is no cause for concern. As such, Piper Jaffray has remained bullish on the technology company, and has maintained its price target of $277.
post #2 of 55
Man should be fired.
post #3 of 55
This is getting tiresome.
post #4 of 55
Nah... let Apple introduce it to Verizon. Then we'll see how well Verizon will save face when the iPhone brings their network down to its knees too.
post #5 of 55
Gene Munster = Shaw Wu = boring
post #6 of 55
I agree this topic is getting way to tired....

ATT's Voice and Date Simultaneously, Carry Over Minutes vs. VZ better Network, which of course depends on location!

We won't know till Apple wants to us know... Till then it's more Threads like this beating this "dead horse", where people passionately argue for each carrier!

As usual, Apple is LEADING, pressing the carriers to get to LTE and beyond, and improve the pricing.. Tethering is part of Pricing!!! Will the Unlimited Data be going away, or will it be Limited? Will Unused Usage be Carried-over like Carry Over Minutes? The carriers will always find a way to charge us....

 

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post #7 of 55
so if your on verizon and you want the idont phone they have spent millions on ridiculing. you can now buy it on their network??? worst marketing plan ever if this is true
post #8 of 55
This was discounted just last week because of the hardware problems. Not to mention Verizon switching to LTE.

Sigh.
post #9 of 55
these stories make me facepalm so much
post #10 of 55
I wil just add,
Verizon my @55!
post #11 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

Nah... let Apple introduce it to Verizon. Then we'll see how well Verizon will save face when the iPhone brings their network down to its knees too.

While I just do not see a Verizon iPhone for the CDMA reason as well as Verizon being a royal pain wanting to control and make money on everything its own way. Maybe why Apple did not go with them in the first place.?????

But it would serve Verizon customers right if Apple did sell a CDMA phone. It would be slower than the ATT version, could only do data OR voice at once, and in 2 1/2 years, it would be obsolete as Verizon is moving to 4G / LTE (what ever))

Just a thought.
en
post #12 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldernorm View Post

While I just do not see a Verizon iPhone for the CDMA reason as well as Verizon being a royal pain wanting to control and make money on everything its own way. Maybe why Apple did not go with them in the first place.?????

But it would serve Verizon customers right if Apple did sell a CDMA phone. It would be slower than the ATT version, could only do data OR voice at once, and in 2 1/2 years, it would be obsolete as Verizon is moving to 4G / LTE (what ever))

Just a thought.
en

And in 2 years I will get the iPhone LTE once it is actually a viable network solution. Tell me how the iPhone 3GS won't be out of date in the same timeframe. 2 years is a lifetime in the cell phone industry, and developing a CDMA iPhone would be worth the money. However, I do not believe it will happen by the traditional June timeframe. I have a feeling we would have seen some filings with the FCC by now, but knowing Apple, they may be working with the FCC to keep it under wraps.
post #13 of 55
I don't think we should be stuck on the idea that all iPhones must have the same guts worldwide to save money. A pool of 89 million potential subscribers is large enough to warrant CDMA on a separate run. Every other handset maker uses multiple carriers for an individual device and Apple will too in 2010. For Apple to ignore the popularity of Verizon would be a gross misrepresentation of their shareholders.
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post #14 of 55
I agree completely that this topic is tiresome. Let's talk about the Mac for once.

What I find strange is that most of you here don't seem to want it to happen. Of course the same people are against matte screens and MMS.

Could it be that some of you are AT&T stock holders and are worried you will be left holding the bag?
post #15 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by B747 View Post

This was discounted just last week because of the hardware problems. Not to mention Verizon switching to LTE.

Sigh.

If Apple and Verizon wanted to do it, the hardware (to make a CDMA iPhone, it doesn't have to be a hybrid, multi-network phone to be massively successful) would be a nearly trivial problem. The ONLY thing preventing it is the two companies not agreeing to do it. Everything else is a non-issue.
post #16 of 55
I hope it's true because my contract with AT&T expires by then and I will be ready for a new iPhone and a new provider.
post #17 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wiggin View Post

If Apple and Verizon wanted to do it, the hardware (to make a CDMA iPhone, it doesn't have to be a hybrid, multi-network phone to be massively successful) would be a nearly trivial problem. The ONLY thing preventing it is the two companies not agreeing to do it. Everything else is a non-issue.

Unless VZ offers Voice and Date Simultaneously + Carry Over Minutes, like ATT, it's gonna be Apples and Oranges, with those silly commercials bragging about speed and Network! It's gotta be an Even Playing Field, not a bunch of trade offs!

When Apple in a TV Commercial here in US asked "Can your Network do that?" it was in regard to Voice and Date Simultaneously! If VZ can't deliver that, than it cripples iPhone, and why would Apple want that...?

 

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post #18 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by 8CoreWhore View Post

I don't think we should be stuck on the idea that all iPhones must have the same guts worldwide to save money. A pool of 89 million potential subscribers is large enough to warrant CDMA on a separate run. Every other handset maker uses multiple carriers for an individual device and Apple will too in 2010. For Apple to ignore the popularity of Verizon would be a gross misrepresentation of their shareholders.

and would not are sully their products on an inferior CDMA carrier that from out of the box would limit what it does out of the box, not simultaneous data/voice after making commercials for it...could imagine the verizon customer who waited for years for the iphone only to find out, if they want a fully featured one they would still have to go to ATT...LOL

besides, 89 million compared to lets compare one country...China?...try like almost a billion potential customers...India, over half a billion customers, without having to change anything other than software/downloadable language packs....hmm...
post #19 of 55
Enough! I don't believe anyone.
post #20 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldernorm View Post

While I just do not see a Verizon iPhone for the CDMA reason as well as Verizon being a royal pain wanting to control and make money on everything its own way. Maybe why Apple did not go with them in the first place.?????

This is an old argument that needs to be put to bed. Verizon is not controlling anything with the Android phones so I expect they won't with the iPhone either.

Quote:
Originally Posted by eldernorm View Post

But it would serve Verizon customers right if Apple did sell a CDMA phone. It would be slower than the ATT version, could only do data OR voice at once, and in 2 1/2 years, it would be obsolete as Verizon is moving to 4G / LTE (what ever))

Which is why Apple is talking to Qualcomm since they have a chip set that does all versions of GMS, CDMA and LTE. That way they make one phone, they can support both AT&T and Verizon as they switch to LTE. FYI, Verizon seems to be ahead of AT&T in deploying LTE and should have several major metropolitan areas online by the end of next year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by B747 View Post

This was discounted just last week because of the hardware problems. Not to mention Verizon switching to LTE.

Discounted by who? If they use the Qualcomm chip set all of this is totally possible.
post #21 of 55
The technical challenge for VZ is a 3-mode chip-- HSDPA, LTE, and CDMA. From what I see now, there is at least 12 months before a phone with those features would even have an advantage in the US. I'll hope for a VZ phone in March and a T-Mo phone in July. You won't be able to move an ATT phone to VZ (or T-Mo?), but might be able to move the VZ phone to ATT.

2-mode chips (HSDPA/CDMA) aren't a problem today.

As for the Verizon marketing plan, they have said very little that would look like a contradiction if they started offering the iPhone. Likewise, ATT seems to actually be making improvements to their network (at least in the areas I am), so they will try and blunt an effort by VZ to take their existing customers.

The biggest issue is what does VZ think they will gain by going with the iPhone in a non-exclusive contract. I would naively say 10MM subscribers...

Some places just don't make sense for one carrier or another. Was in the basement of a building today that had full Verizon coverage but nothing from anybody else. Verizon has multiple cell sites in the building, and everybody else is locked out unless you are at a window. The same used to be true for Nextel... haven't been to a place where ATT pulled off the same exclusive.
post #22 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Timon View Post

FYI, Verizon seems to be ahead of AT&T in deploying LTE and should have several major metropolitan areas online by the end of next year.

Verizon has to be ahead of AT&T and T-Mobile with LTE because investing in EVDO Rev. B is a fruitless endeavour. Sprint jumped the gun with 4G and invested in WiMAX, which we now see is a foolish move. Verizon is smartly going for LTE, but AT&T and T-Mo can wait as HSPA has barely gotten off the ground and the theroectial limits are many, many years from reaching their peaks.

We now only have 7.2Mbps HSDPA with no HSUPA in the iPhone. There is so much more that can go into that 3G before its a requirement for the rest of the world like it is for CDMA-based networks. Some carriers outside the US were smart enough to see the problems continuing with Qualcomms CDMA so they have a hybrid CDMA/3GSM network already.

Quote:
Discounted by who? If they use the Qualcomm chip set all of this is totally possible.

I dont agree agree that its totally possible. The chip exists but Ive seen no evidence that the chip is the same size or smaller than the current module plus radios used in the 3GS or that it uses the equivalent power so that the 3GS can have the same size battery without losing talk time.

Then there is a price issue, not just for the chip costs, but the licensing fees. Ive read that Qualcomm charges 5.7% of the devices revenue for using their tech, which is why a competing network was developed using only some of their patents.

As it stands now it looks like Apple would have to make a larger, heavier iPhone to handle the additional HW and larger battery , that would cost more or risk profit margins to make this device. The latter seems doable if the sales are high enough (which I think they would be), but the former doesnt seem to be part of Apples DNA. I think adding the additional band IV 1700MHz spectrum for T-Mobile 3G compatibility is the simplest solution and therefore the most likely at this point.
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post #23 of 55
I would say that when Apple moves away from a single carrier plan, then they could totally make the iPhone available to all carriers in the U.S.; including AT&T, VZ, Sprint-Nextel, and T-Mobile. That's over 100 million customers using CDMA. I think it would totally worth the investment. As for GSM... There's no need to discuss that as the rest of the world is on it.
post #24 of 55
As the article states add-ons should be big for the iPhone/Touch in 2010 and I'm sure that's correct. Apple has much still left to accomplish on the iPhone OS. More business features, augmented reality API, mapping API, a productivity suite etc.

If Apple put iWork on the iPhone I'm sure that would cause them to beef-up the iPhone SDK.
post #25 of 55
I still can't see the logic in Apple spending millions and increasing the costs of their handsets worldwide, just to access another phone network in a country where they already have access to a network.

There is nothing physically stopping a verizon customer moving to AT&T, give them a big enough reason and they will. There is however something stopping many folks worldwide using a CDMA network - Namely they don't exist in that particular country.
post #26 of 55
I do not see Apple opening the iPhone up to Verizon in 2010. Even if Qualcom has such a chip, it will get a significant amount of testing first. I see Apple opening up on T-Mobile before Verizon. Further, T-Mobile will appreciate the offer more, and AT&T will not be as hostile to the move.
post #27 of 55
they are basing this solely on subscriber numbers.

and the rumors about the dual gsm/cdma are not only just rumors but they could be for the alleged tablet. having that on both types unlocked so folks can just add data to whatever they have is a perfect gateway into Mac for switchers.
post #28 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChickenHawk View Post

There is nothing physically stopping a verizon customer moving to AT&T

...except for that customer living in one of the vast stretches of the country where AT&T has no service...
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post #29 of 55
People think this is such a great thing, but Verizon is not the answer to AT&T's problems. If you are unhappy on AT&T with your iPhone, and think Verizon will be your saving grace, look at what you get to pay for the Droid on Verizon.

$99.99 a month, and Data access for email. Specifically email. Unlimited text, video, and picture messaging. But no other data access is included in this price. 450 minutes, too.

Add $30 for 5Gb of data otherwise. Visual Voicemail? Another $2.99. Total per month before fees is $132.98.

No thanks, Verizon.
post #30 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by macologist View Post

When Apple in a TV Commercial here in US asked "Can your Network do that?" it was in regard to Voice and Date Simultaneously! If VZ can't deliver that, than it cripples iPhone, and why would Apple want that...?

If you're in an area with poor AT&T coverage you may get no voice or data so if you get one of the two on Verizon that's a net gain isn't it? If Apple is going to use one of these hybrid LTE/CDMA/GSM chipsets Verizon could offer data on LTE, voice on CDMA. Verizon is building LTE as a parallel network to CDMA so within the next 2 years it's likely many people will have access to both. CDMA is going to be around for another 5-10 years.
post #31 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChickenHawk View Post

I still can't see the logic in Apple spending millions and increasing the costs of their handsets worldwide, just to access another phone network in a country where they already have access to a network.

There is nothing physically stopping a verizon customer moving to AT&T, give them a big enough reason and they will. There is however something stopping many folks worldwide using a CDMA network - Namely they don't exist in that particular country.

The logic is that Verizon still has nearly 100 million customers, MANY of which have only one reason to not have the iPhone - that it is only on ATT and they absolutely positively will not let go of Verizon. Apple would make plenty of money selling to 10% of those 100 million - 10 million times $500 per phone = 5 billion in revenue, and likely around 2.5 billion in profit that they otherwise have no chance of getting. See it now?
post #32 of 55
Munster is blowing smoke up his own skirt. T-mobile is the only other provider that makes sense at this point.

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post #33 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

The logic is that Verizon still has nearly 100 million customers, MANY of which have only one reason to not have the iPhone - that it is only on ATT and they absolutely positively will not let go of Verizon. Apple would make plenty of money selling to 10% of those 100 million - 10 million times $500 per phone = 5 billion in revenue, and likely around 2.5 billion in profit that they otherwise have no chance of getting. See it now?

I'd rather see Apple take its growth opportunities a nibble at a time -- maybe with an occasional snack thrown in -- that in one big bite!

Verizon and China Mobile are basically the two gargantuan bites left for Apple, and I'd be perfectly happy if the company took its sweet time.

Just my 2¢.
post #34 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by SinisterJoe View Post

If you're in an area with poor AT&T coverage you may get no voice or data so if you get one of the two on Verizon that's a net gain isn't it? If Apple is going to use one of these hybrid LTE/CDMA/GSM chipsets Verizon could offer data on LTE, voice on CDMA. Verizon is building LTE as a parallel network to CDMA so within the next 2 years it's likely many people will have access to both. CDMA is going to be around for another 5-10 years.

Excellent point, but... It'll be a while before Verizon has LTE everywhere, so that they legitimately claim Voice or Data capability! By then ATT will probably improve their overall Network...

Besides Voice or Data, it's ATT's Rollover Minutes, and this TV commercial http://bit.ly/73npfO illustrated that advantage very well. And, like I mentioned before, if Carriers start Limiting Data, will they have Rollover MBs or GBs!?

It seems like VZ did enough damage to on the PR front, getting people to believe that their Network is better! But I doubt that VZ will be able to milk that forever! Their Network was never really tested by iPhone type of demand, as was ATT, thus to it's foolish to assume that VZ is some kind of Savior in waiting, and once iPhone is on VZ it's perfect! I doubt it'd be as simple as that! Realistically, if iPhones were to be split between more than one US Carrier, everyone's iPhone would work better! But to prove the VZ The Savior Theory TODAY, one would have to switch ALL iPhones from ATT over night, or at least add the exact number of iPhones that ATT has to VZ. Then it'd be a fair way to see which Network does better, if the number of iPhones, or and Data Phones on both Networks is identical...

Right now it's easy for VZ make fun of ATT, cause they know that won't have ATT's Number of iPhones on VZ overnight... It also deflect the attention from VZ not having Rollover minutes until that ATT TV commercial http://bit.ly/73npfO sinks into public's mind as deeply as VZ's adds!

There are lots of good points made on this thread, but none of us have the info that Apple has, thus we can only speculate! One thing's for sure, Apple is driving the Cell Industry in a big way worldwide, and that is only to grow bigger! Of course all us will be impatient throughout this ongoing process...

 

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post #35 of 55
don't tell the koreans that there is no cdma service anywhere but the usa. if their service was available in the usa, verizon would be in the icu room at the hospital. korea is head and shoulders above every country in quality and service for cell phones. and korea is cdma.

china also has a small amount of cdma service.

also, if apple could manage to move from ibm computer chips to intel chips without skipping a beat, cdma is also doable if they so desire. the other cell phone manufacturers shudder every time apple announces some nondescript idea and the nay sayers start yelling droid droid, but not as loud lately.
post #36 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by ezduzit View Post

don't tell the koreans that there is no cdma service anywhere but the usa. if their service was available in the usa, verizon would be in the icu room at the hospital. korea is head and shoulders above every country in quality and service for cell phones. and korea is cdma.

S. Korea has CDMA for 2G, but mostly uses 3GSM for 3G. Only LG Telecom has EVDO Rev. A for 3G and they only account for about 8M subs.

Quote:
china also has a small amount of cdma service.

Small for China, but China Telecom has about 50M subs. Still, if Apple was going to make a non-3GSM phone for China it would likely be for China Mobiles GSM/TD-SCDMA with about 510M subs.
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post #37 of 55
Oh, Gene's visibly grown up a lot since he started reading AI forums.

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post #38 of 55
Final decision on Verizon or not depends upon how much control Verizon wants.

If they want their own App Store and crippled phones, like they do with others, then No Deal.

If they want the current Apple model extended to Verizon, then Deal.

Apple is a game-changer. They'd like Verizon, but they don't *need* Verizon. Current scenario has made that very clear. Verizon is a carrier. A big one to be sure, but a carrier. Not a game-changer.

Some will say that it will happen anyway when LTE arrives. Probably true. So does Verizon find it in its interest to play sooner? For that, we need the crystal ball ...
post #39 of 55
See, Gene, here's the probability of VZW iPhone's appearance pour les Nuls:

VZW CDMA iPhone/mid'10 = 20%
VZW CDMA iPhone/mid'11 = 00%

VZW LTE iPhone/mid'10 = 29%
VZW LTE iPhone/mid'11 = 31%

No VZW iPhone at all = 20%
---------------------------------------
...................................= 100% No?

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post #40 of 55
[QUOTE=ChickenHawk;1532852]I still can't see the logic in Apple spending millions and increasing the costs of their handsets worldwide, just to access another phone network in a country where they already have access to a network.

There is nothing physically stopping a verizon customer moving to AT&T, give them a big enough reason and they will. There is however something stopping many folks worldwide using a CDMA network - Namely they don't exist in that particular country.[/QUOTE

Its just some small insignificant market. Not like it has 308 million people, is the size of Europe, or is the home market for the Iphone or anything.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlesS View Post

...except for that customer living in one of the vast stretches of the country where AT&T has no service...

Or the even larger stretches were AT&T has not bothered to update their network at all and has limited service.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Munster is blowing smoke up his own skirt. T-mobile is the only other provider that makes sense at this point.

T-Mobile's 3G network makes AT&T's look huge and many of their affiliates don't even have 3G networks at all. Plus, its on a different GSM band not covered by the iPhone.
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