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Strong demand for parts forecasts 10M iPhone sales in Q4 2009

post #1 of 38
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Demand for the iPhone 3GS has helped Taiwanese suppliers see a 31 percent increase in orders for components, as Apple's handset is projected to have a record quarter.

Citing a local firm, Taiwan-based industry publication DigiTimes noted that integrated circuit shipments in the third quarter of 2009 hit 116.97 million, up 30.9 percent. Leading that growth, and giving a boost to suppliers, has been the iPhone, which sold 7.4 million units globally last quarter. The report suggests that Apple could blow out its previous record when the December quarter concludes.

In the third quarter of 2009, sales of the Apple iPhone 3GS far exceeded expectations, and sales are expected to reach 10 million in the fourth quarter of 2009," the report said. "iPhone chip suppliers have benefited from this development. Furthermore, other terminal vendors made advance procurements to prepare for the peak season in the fourth quarter."

It goes on to note that Infineon, maker of baseband and radio frequency transceivers, TriQuint, manufacturer of power amplifiers, and Samsung, creator of application processors, are all due to benefit from increased demand for the iPhone.

Apple's continued strength in the smartphone market was also noted Monday by analyst Charlie Wolf with Needham & Co. In a new edition of his "Wolf Bytes," he called the iPhone the "gold standard" of the smartphone market. As competitors like the BlackBerry, Palm Pre, and Motorola Droid look to capture some of Apple's buzz, Wolf said he believes the iPhone will remain on top for the foreseeable future.

"No competitive smartphone has emerged as an iPhone killer just as no portable music player came close to becoming an iPod killer," he said. "That's because no one develops user-friendly software like Apple does."



The highest market shares of the iPhone exist in the U.S. and Western Europe, where it commands 29.2 percent and 23.5 percent of the smartphone market, respectively.

Apple's successes have not been as strong in Asia, however, where the leader is Japan with a decent 9.2 percent market share. But the region's real prize is China, where a modest sales start was mostly attributed to a gray market of phones available for less money with Wi-Fi. Wolf said carrier China Unicom will need to lower its prices if it plans to compete with the gray market.
post #2 of 38
Looking at that chart, this quarter may be the one that iPhone overtakes the Blackberry for the first time.

Another year and it will have overtaken Nokia too..
post #3 of 38
There's a shortage of iPhones in Malaysia - the waiting period is anywhere between a month and 60 days.
post #4 of 38
I dont know why for March 2008, the graph shows that iPhone's market share became nearly 0.
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post #5 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chintan100 View Post

I dont know why for March 2008, the graph shows that iPhone's market share became nearly 0.

The market share became nearly 0 in the 2nd quarter of 2008 as Apple only shipped/sold 717K iPhones while it prepped for the iPhone 3G intro in July. By May of 2008, Apple had no iPhones for sale in the US (though you could've bought one on eBay.)

By the way, the number after the year refers to calendar quarters not months, so 2008/1 was 1st quarter, and 2008/3 was 3rd quarter. The nearly 0 market share happens in the unmarked quarter in-between those two.
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post #6 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon T View Post

Looking at that chart, this quarter may be the one that iPhone overtakes the Blackberry for the first time.

Another year and it will have overtaken Nokia too..

Agreed.
post #7 of 38
Can anyone explain Nokia to me and how they remain on top? I honestly cannot remember the last time I saw or even heard someone talking about a Nokia phone other than on this forum. Are they that popular everywhere but the U.S?
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post #8 of 38
Looking forward to getting an OLED 4th Gen iPhone.
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post #9 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

Looking forward to getting an OLED 4th Gen iPhone.

At this point, it would a bit laughable if that wasn't the case for Apple's Gen 4, considering the Zune and Googlephone (Droid too?) have it.
post #10 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Motlee View Post

Can anyone explain Nokia to me and how they remain on top? I honestly cannot remember the last time I saw or even heard someone talking about a Nokia phone other than on this forum. Are they that popular everywhere but the U.S?

Yes. Virtually unknown in the US, provider of a vast array of cheap dumb phones everywhere else. Also the provider of mid to high end smartphones, once regarded as quite sophisticated, but that segment of their business has been shrinking rapidly.
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post #11 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Motlee View Post

Can anyone explain Nokia to me and how they remain on top? I honestly cannot remember the last time I saw or even heard someone talking about a Nokia phone other than on this forum. Are they that popular everywhere but the U.S?

Ummm, yeah dude they are that popular overseas. There are lots of phones that never hit these shores.
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post #12 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Yes. Virtually unknown in the US, provider of a vast array of cheap dumb phones everywhere else. Also the provider of mid to high end smartphones, once regarded as quite sophisticated, but that segment of their business has been shrinking rapidly.

How true.
post #13 of 38
Is it time to mention my widely disparaged prediction of 60M total iPhone sales by end 2009?
Many found the idea laughable 18 months ago...
post #14 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Motlee View Post

Can anyone explain Nokia to me and how they remain on top? I honestly cannot remember the last time I saw or even heard someone talking about a Nokia phone other than on this forum. Are they that popular everywhere but the U.S?

Yes. They have some momentum due to having decent phones in the past, but they're losing marketshare now because of hanging onto their old system software too long. They're tarting it up (N97) or replacing it (N900 with Maemo), but it may be too little, too late when compared with the iPhone and the 50 Android devices coming to market in 2010.
post #15 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Motlee View Post

Can anyone explain Nokia to me and how they remain on top? I honestly cannot remember the last time I saw or even heard someone talking about a Nokia phone other than on this forum. Are they that popular everywhere but the U.S?

Nokia has a very strong global brand, currently ranking way above Apple.

They've made their money by being very good at localizing their products and by undercutting the competition through economy of scale.

The reasons for their failings in the US have been less to do with a lack of decent products and more to do with their unwillingness to bend over backwards for carriers (AT&T, Verizon) and partners (Qualcomm for CDMA handsets).
post #16 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

Nokia has a very strong global brand, currently ranking way above Apple.

They've made their money by being very good at localizing their products and by undercutting the competition through economy of scale.

The reasons for their failings in the US have been less to do with a lack of decent products and more to do with their unwillingness to bend over backwards for carriers (AT&T, Verizon) and partners (Qualcomm for CDMA handsets).

What about their Asian penetration? Theyve pulled out of Asia and I dont think they have any S. Korean sales. Losing mindshare in Asia is not a good thing.
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post #17 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hattig View Post

Yes. They have some momentum due to having decent phones in the past, but they're losing marketshare now because of hanging onto their old system software too long. They're tarting it up (N97) or replacing it (N900 with Maemo), but it may be too little, too late when compared with the iPhone and the 50 Android devices coming to market in 2010.

I dont think its too late. While losing sales they have a strong mindshare, like Apple and Nintendo, that Im sure would be willing to buy another Nokia device should they come out with a real contender. They also have plenty of money to work on a real solution. Its never too late to get back into the game and there are countless examples in tech to prove it. I think Nokia has a fighting chance.
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post #18 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

What about their Asian penetration? Theyve pulled out of Asia and I dont think they have any S. Korean sales. Losing mindshare in Asia is not a good thing.

With the exception of their Vertu luxury brand, Nokia pulled out of Japan. And you're right, Nokia has zero presence in South Korea due to market regulation. Both markets are very tough to penetrate for foreign players, which just underlines how well the iPhone has done in Japan.

However, in the rest of Asia, Nokia has an incredibly dominant position and enjoys the kind of rock star status that Apple enjoys in the English-speaking world. Nokia has around an 80% share of the Indian market and has a very healthy share of the Chinese market. It was no surprise that Nokia was the first manufacturer to announce a TD-SCDMA (China's 3G standard) smartphone. Nokia also does very well in the other east Asian markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia.
post #19 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

With the exception of their Vertu luxury brand, Nokia pulled out of Japan. And you're right, Nokia has zero presence in South Korea due to market regulation. Both markets are very tough to penetrate for foreign players, which just underlines how well the iPhone has done in Japan.

However, in the rest of Asia, Nokia has an incredibly dominant position and enjoys the kind of rock star status that Apple enjoys in the English-speaking world. Nokia has around an 80% share of the Indian market and has a very healthy share of the Chinese market. It was no surprise that Nokia was the first manufacturer to announce a TD-SCDMA (China's 3G standard) smartphone. Nokia also does very well in the other east Asian markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia.

Yes, I did dsee quite a few Nokia phones and Nokia stores in India. A very popular brand out there. They sell some very expensive models, too.
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post #20 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

With the exception of their Vertu luxury brand, Nokia pulled out of Japan. And you're right, Nokia has zero presence in South Korea due to market regulation. Both markets are very tough to penetrate for foreign players, which just underlines how well the iPhone has done in Japan.

However, in the rest of Asia, Nokia has an incredibly dominant position and enjoys the kind of rock star status that Apple enjoys in the English-speaking world. Nokia has around an 80% share of the Indian market and has a very healthy share of the Chinese market. It was no surprise that Nokia was the first manufacturer to announce a TD-SCDMA (China's 3G standard) smartphone. Nokia also does very well in the other east Asian markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia.

That's where the Dell comparisons come in, though. Nokia is (increasingly) running its business on low margins and high volume, selling well into extremely price sensitive markets. The problem there, though, is that you come to be regarded as exactly that-- a purveyor of cheap and plentiful devices.

Nokia can continue to prop up its global share numbers by pouring an endless stream of inexpensive handsets into every market it can get a toe-hold in, but when another manufacturer works the price end better than you can (oh hi Bejing!) then things suddenly get hard. Like Dell, you have to start working the actually profitable end of the stick, but you may have dug yourself a hole in terms of brand perception.
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post #21 of 38
If they're selling this many iPhones, I wonder how many iPod Touches they're selling. Traditionally they sell more Touches than iPhones, but since both use the same software it effectively doubles the opportunity for anyone writing apps.
post #22 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinney57 View Post

Is it time to mention my widely disparaged prediction of 60M total iPhone sales by end 2009?
Many found the idea laughable 18 months ago...

Don't be too hard on them. Lack of vision is common. Just ask Michael Dell, Steve Ballmer, Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, Ed Zander, Jim Balsillie, Ed Colligan, Roger McNamee . . .
post #23 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

That's where the Dell comparisons come in, though.

Nokia can continue to prop up its global share numbers by pouring an endless stream of inexpensive handsets into every market it can get a toe-hold in, but when another manufacturer works the price end better than you can (oh hi Bejing!) then things suddenly get hard. Like Dell, you have to start working the actually profitable end of the stick, but you may have dug yourself a hole in terms of brand perception.

The cell phone market is not the PC market.

For a phone to reach (most) markets, it still needs to pass conformance testing and the manufacturer needs to license the right technologies. Carriers trust Nokia to produce phones that aren't going to screw their network up and Nokia are the ones who own a lot of the parents around cell phones. Owning the patents means that they can make phones cheaper than new entrants to the market. Of course, if a market doesn't have strong IP laws then Nokia will have less of a competitive edge but so far China is the only notable exception.

And it's not like Nokia doesn't have it's own factories in China anyway.
post #24 of 38
RIM's about to get creamed.
post #25 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

The cell phone market is not the PC market.

For a phone to reach (most) markets, it still needs to pass conformance testing and the manufacturer needs to license the right technologies. Carriers trust Nokia to produce phones that aren't going to screw their network up and Nokia are the ones who own a lot of the parents around cell phones. Owning the patents means that they can make phones cheaper than new entrants to the market. Of course, if a market doesn't have strong IP laws then Nokia will have less of a competitive edge but so far China is the only notable exception.

And it's not like Nokia doesn't have it's own factories in China anyway.

Not sure how this relates to what I was saying. It's not a matter of the hardware meeting minimal standards, its a matter of selling a great deal of hardware at razor thin margins, at the expense of more profitable items.

Nokia may be able to undercut all comers when it comes to cheap phones, but tha is perhaps not a great business to be in, going forward, even less so with "notable exception" China perfectly happy to crank out functional equivalents for less.
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post #26 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinney57 View Post

Is it time to mention my widely disparaged prediction of 60M total iPhone sales by end 2009?
Many found the idea laughable 18 months ago...

Total sales of iphone is 33.75 million so far.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IP...er_quarter.svg
post #27 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

They've made their money by being very good at localizing their products and by undercutting the competition through economy of scale.

Not selling flip phones --- show how BAD Nokia has been in localizing their phones in the US, Japan and Korea where flip phone is the norm.
post #28 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Not selling flip phones --- show how BAD Nokia has been in localizing their phones in the US, Japan and Korea where flip phone is the norm.

Nokia currently has 11 flip models on its American store.

And South Korea is all about slide phones, not flip phones.
post #29 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Total sales of iphone is 33.75 million so far.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IP...er_quarter.svg

Add another quarter (Apple's year ends in Sept - mine doesn't) and we'll see.

Add in iPod Touch, Apple's secret weapon, and it's well beyond 60 million. Unfortunately Apple don't separate out iPod Touch sales.

I'm a visionary, not clairvoyant
post #30 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

Looking forward to getting an OLED 4th Gen iPhone.

I'm in for a penny...in for a pound for 4th Gen iPhone as well. I think OLED is a given as well but other than that I haven't a clue what Apple's going to deliver.
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post #31 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

I'm in for a penny...in for a pound for 4th Gen iPhone as well. I think OLED is a given as well but other than that I haven't a clue what Apple's going to deliver.

Has OLED been shown to be overall better than an LCD of the same resolution? Ive seen some pros and cons for it, but the one Id be most interested in is the power usage reduction, which seems to not to be a factor on such small displays.
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post #32 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Has OLED been shown to be overall better than an LCD of the same resolution? Ive seen some pros and cons for it, but the one Id be most interested in is the power usage reduction, which seems to not to be a factor on such small displays.

In contrast, certainly. I think though it's foolish to assume that OLED automagically means a better picture though Apple won't put in a substandard OLED screen. They'll choose a screen that delivers great picture along with low power consumption. I can't wait.

Here's a link showing the difference in Nokia models, one with OLED



And more OLED from Nokia


I can't wait.
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post #33 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

In contrast, certainly. I think though it's foolish to assume that OLED automagically means a better picture though Apple won't put in a substandard OLED screen. They'll choose a screen that delivers great picture along with low power consumption. I can't wait.

Here's a link showing the difference in Nokia models, one with OLED

image: http://media.share.ovi.com/m1/large/...1086cfd2e5.jpg

And more OLED from Nokia


I can't wait.

Has longevity of use for OLED sufficient for a high-use iPhone compared to LCD? What about images that are not black-heavy, where I recall OLED really being superior, especially in power usage over LCD?
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post #34 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

Nokia currently has 11 flip models on its American store.

And South Korea is all about slide phones, not flip phones.

It's about 4-5 years too late for Nokia to start selling flip phones at this point.

Koreans still use flip phones --- I watch plenty of korean tv dramas and they all have flip phones.
post #35 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinney57 View Post

Add another quarter (Apple's year ends in Sept - mine doesn't) and we'll see.

Add in iPod Touch, Apple's secret weapon, and it's well beyond 60 million. Unfortunately Apple don't separate out iPod Touch sales.

I'm a visionary, not clairvoyant

We'll see what? Apple selling 26.25 million iphones in the christmas quarter?

Apple already annoiunced that they sold 50 million iphones/ipod touches in September.

http://moconews.net/article/419-appl...touch-devices/
post #36 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

We'll see what? Apple selling 26.25 million iphones in the christmas quarter?

Apple already annoiunced that they sold 50 million iphones/ipod touches in September.

http://moconews.net/article/419-appl...touch-devices/

Looks like I'm on track then.
post #37 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinney57 View Post

Looks like I'm on track then.

Do you ave your original prediction? If you said iPhones would reach 60M then you'll be short. If you said devices running iPhone OS then it'll be exceeded by millions.
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post #38 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Do you ave your original prediction? If you said iPhones would reach 60M then you'll be short. If you said devices running iPhone OS then it'll be exceeded by millions.

He was talking 60 million iphones IN 2009 --- not cumulative --- just 2009 sales.

http://forums.appleinsider.com/showp...2&postcount=39

So far in 3 quarters of 2009, Apple sold 16 million iphones --- plus another 10 million iphones in the christmas quarter, you will have 26 million iphones for the year (which is 43% of vinney57's estimate).
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