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Piper: 75% chance of Apple Jan. event, 50% likelihood of tablet

post #1 of 38
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As rumors of Apple's forthcoming tablet device pick up steam once again, one Wall Street analyst sees a 50-50 chance of the device being unveiled in January.

Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said in a new note to investors Wednesday afternoon that he expects the long-rumored tablet device to ship by the end of March. Current models for AAPL stock do not include the potential additional revenue the company would receive in 2010 from releasing the device. In other words, he said, shares are currently undervalued.

"We expect the multiple to increase as tablet hype builds and Street models begin to include tablet estimates," Munster said. "While the tablet is not currently in our model, we believe Apple could sell about 1.4M units if the tablet shipped in March, adding 2% to revenue."

Those numbers are based on an average selling price of $600. Speculation on the unannounced product's price has ranged from "shockingly" inexpensive to as much as $2,000. Munster also believes the device would run a new version of the iPhone OS that would run a new category of applications, as well as existing software available from the App Store.

"We believe Apple's tablet would compete well in the netbook category even though it would not be a netbook," he said. "Rather it would focus more on apps, entertainment content (from the iTunes Store), and Web surfing."

Munster isn't entirely confident that the device would be unveiled in January, however. Earlier Wednesday, a previous report suggested the hardware could be introduced by Apple at the start of 2010, and mass production would begin as soon as February.

In addition, Boy Genius Report said Wednesday it has heard from a "connected" source that Apple will be announced in January. That person allegedly said they are confident that the device will come in a 7-inch size -- smaller than the 10-inch screen that has been widely reported. The smaller model reportedly could be in addition to the 10-inch model.

"Would we bet the farm on this?" the report said. "No, but they’ve been amazingly accurate for us in the past and as usual, Apple rumors seem to get more interesting."

But Munster said he believes there is a 75 percent chance of an Apple event in January. It could also be used to introduce a new iPod touch with video, which sources have told AppleInsider has been told remains in Apple's pipeline. The note to investors also said that such an event could be used to introduce a new Apple TV that supports a subscription service.

Numerous reports this week have claimed that Apple is in talks with CBS and Disney in an attempt to offer a subscription plan for TV shows. Sources have said that both companies are currently considering an offer from Apple that would provide them $2 to $4 per month for a subscriber to a broadcast network like CBS or ABC, and $1 to $2 per month for subscribers to a basic cable network.

Munster has long believed that Apple is pursuing a subscription service for iTunes. He also believes the company could add DVR capabilities to the Apple TV, and, at some point in the future, release a connected television set.

Piper Jaffray has maintained its overweight rating for AAPL stock, and has kept its price target of $277.
post #2 of 38
"Piper: 75% chance of Apple Jan. event, 50% likelihood of tablet"... sounds like a weather report!

A 25% chance Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs!

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post #3 of 38
There will always be a 50/50 chance of the "tablet" being announced/released because... it either will be or won't be.\

Until of course it actually gets announced in which case the odds increase to 100%.

What again is the appeal of the tablet form factor? I've been trying to understand it but I haven't grasped it yet. Oh well, I'm still looking forward to the excitement this product will generate and I'm going to try very hard not to want one.
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post #4 of 38
The Great iPhone Fragmentation continues . . . .
Fragmentation is not just something we have to acknowledge and accept. Fragmentation is something that we deal with every day, and we must accept it as a fact of the iPhone platform experience.

Ste...
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Fragmentation is not just something we have to acknowledge and accept. Fragmentation is something that we deal with every day, and we must accept it as a fact of the iPhone platform experience.

Ste...
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post #5 of 38
I'd be willing to bet 1 penny this tablet does not run iPhone apps.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #6 of 38
100% chance of incorrect, misleading and potentially damaging news reports leading up to the Apple announcement.
post #7 of 38
My man Gene Munster! Some may mock him but GM is seldom wrong. I dare say $277 is a bit conservative when you take the rumored tablet and new subscription model into account.
post #8 of 38
I'm still thinking Apple is going to start a new annual event much like the iPod event in the fall, except for video. This will probably be the year that Apple takes video as seriously as it does music.

Things to consider:
The Apple A/V dock features the old Apple remote, the current generation of iPhones/iPod Touch can probably support 720p video quite easily if Apple allowed it.
Apple TV is in dire need of an update (as usual) and 1080p hardware is readily available.
The 27' iMac screams for a blu ray drive.
iTunes subscription rumors are everywhere

Predictions:
New A/V dock with HDMI, supporting up to 720p playback. iPhone 3GS/iPod Touch firmware updated to allow playback of 720p files (mid product cycle sales boost).
Apple TV updated to support 1080p video (one could wish for apps and an API too, who knows).
Build to order blu ray drive options for new macs (would require an OS update).
iTunes/iTunes Store updated with 1080p video and some form of subscription service (both updates would probably be limited to a few select movies/tv show shows at first)


That in a nutshell is my vision of "Apple goes HD", the first iteration of an annual video event Apple holds in Jan/Feb. It makes a lot of sense to promote video as sales slow after Christmas and the winter months are a prime time for people to stay in the warmth of their own home and watch a movie. An Apple Tablet could easily fit in here and I would expect that future events would headline the Apple TV and the tablet, but given how much focus there is on magazines on the tablet and the sheer feature list it could have, I think it will probably have its own event this year. Another possibility would be updated Macbook pros with the new i7 chips, possibly with 16:9 screens (not that I want that, but they could go that way and it would fit the theme).

Of course I am probably completely out to lunch, but it is fun to dream.
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post #9 of 38
I'm __SHOCKED__ Gene put himself out on the line like this... Imagine someone predicting Apple would have some type of event in January?!?!? Wow.. I guess he really DOES have his fingers on the pule of AAPL after all and as to the 50% chance the tablet will be announced.... Yea like others have already stated... EVERYDAY has a 50/50 chance of the Apple tablet being announced...
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post #10 of 38
Adding DVR ability to a streaming video service doesn't make too much sense IMHO.
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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post #11 of 38
The Boy Genius Report is not a credible source of rumors. Please toss that site into the same bucket as Enderle and Gartner.

Thanks!
post #12 of 38
Honestly I think Apple is gearing up to release an updated iPhone and/or iPod touch that's going to be a large step forward for gaming, and small but significant step forward otherwise.

The IPHONE developers that have been called in are working on IPHONE apps, new games to run on the new "all-about-gaming" hardware.

I bet it's not about the tablet at all.
post #13 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rot'nApple View Post

"Piper: 75% chance of Apple Jan. event, 50% likelihood of tablet"... sounds like a weather report!

A 25% chance Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs!

I can confidently forecast a 5% chance of raining frogs.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #14 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

The Boy Genius Report is not a credible source of rumors. Please toss that site into the same bucket as Enderle and Gartner.

Thanks!

While no site is 100% credible, BG have broken numerous stories over the last two+ years.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #15 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ Web View Post

My man Gene Munster! Some may mock him but GM is seldom wrong.

how can you EVER be wrong when you say there's a 50% chance of something happening?
...of course, 53% of statistics are made up on the spot.
post #16 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmf2 View Post

I'm still thinking Apple is going to start a new annual event much like the iPod event in the fall, except for video. This will probably be the year that Apple takes video as seriously as it does music.

Things to consider:
The Apple A/V dock features the old Apple remote, the current generation of iPhones/iPod Touch can probably support 720p video quite easily if Apple allowed it.
Apple TV is in dire need of an update (as usual) and 1080p hardware is readily available.
The 27' iMac screams for a blu ray drive.
iTunes subscription rumors are everywhere

Predictions:
New A/V dock with HDMI, supporting up to 720p playback. iPhone 3GS/iPod Touch firmware updated to allow playback of 720p files (mid product cycle sales boost).
Apple TV updated to support 1080p video (one could wish for apps and an API too, who knows).
Build to order blu ray drive options for new macs (would require an OS update).
iTunes/iTunes Store updated with 1080p video and some form of subscription service (both updates would probably be limited to a few select movies/tv show shows at first)


That in a nutshell is my vision of "Apple goes HD", the first iteration of an annual video event Apple holds in Jan/Feb. It makes a lot of sense to promote video as sales slow after Christmas and the winter months are a prime time for people to stay in the warmth of their own home and watch a movie. An Apple Tablet could easily fit in here and I would expect that future events would headline the Apple TV and the tablet, but given how much focus there is on magazines on the tablet and the sheer feature list it could have, I think it will probably have its own event this year. Another possibility would be updated Macbook pros with the new i7 chips, possibly with 16:9 screens (not that I want that, but they could go that way and it would fit the theme).

Of course I am probably completely out to lunch, but it is fun to dream.

My guess is that like the original unveiling of the iPhone (due to the FCC approval process), this first introduction of the phantom tablet must be done a couple of months before the actual product ships (March). In the future, I could imagine Apple moving to the following release schedule for its consumer electronics:

March: video
June: telephony
September: audio

I would guess mini DisplayPort would be the video-out interface for the new device(s).

I'm thinking this thing would ship on March 9th.
post #17 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

While no site is 100% credible, BG have broken numerous stories over the last two+ years.

Their track record is poor (my opinion obviously). Most recent: that Black Friday sale with deep discounting? Ahahahahaha!!!!!!

Oh well, freedom of press, right?
post #18 of 38
yes there's also a 50 / 50 chance the world will end tomorrow. what kind of forecast is that?
post #19 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

My guess is that like the original unveiling of the iPhone (due to the FCC approval process), this first introduction of the phantom tablet must be done a couple of months before the actual product ships (March). In the future, I could imagine Apple moving to the following release schedule for its consumer electronics:

March: video
June: telephony
September: audio

I would guess mini DisplayPort would be the video-out interface for the new device(s).

I'm thinking this thing would ship on March 9th.

I don't know if they will go with mini display port for devices intended to connect to a TV. The Apple TV does have HDMI. Who knows, they could do something un-Apple like and include two ports

I agree that the tablet will likely be unveiled months before it is available to the public due to the FCC approval process if it has a 3G (or similar) chip.
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post #20 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by doyourownthing View Post

yes there's also a 50 / 50 chance the world will end tomorrow. what kind of forecast is that?

It isn't a 50/50 chance (there is a chance, but it isn't 50%) and he was more creative in his numbers.

Edit: Well I guess he wasn't more creative with the tablet.
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post #21 of 38
The very scientific Bullshit-ometer calls this a 33.2% chance of being total crap.
post #22 of 38
From The Naked Gun:

"Doctors say that Nordberg has a 50 - 50 chance of living, though there's only a 10 percent chance of that."
post #23 of 38
I suppose predicting a 99% chance of something coming out still leaves you a 1% chance of saying I told you it might not happen. 50/50 seems pretty safe

I really kinda hate these type of News Articles.
post #24 of 38
I'm just waiting for the January event. I need my new imac media station and hope it gets at least a minor update..
post #25 of 38
If Apple has a January event then they should be announcing it soon. That's the nice thing about owning your own events in being able to spring them on people at the last minute. Steve's hype machine is in the works once more.
post #26 of 38
They're gonna introduce the tablet during the 2010 super bowl to the theme of Arthur C Clarkes 2010 the year we make contact.
post #27 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacTel View Post

If Apple has a January event then they should be announcing it soon. That's the nice thing about owning your own events in being able to spring them on people at the last minute. Steve's hype machine is in the works once more.

Thats what i'm hoping..i'm on vacation till Jan 10th and I figure there should be something by that time.
post #28 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheWatchfulOne View Post

What again is the appeal of the tablet form factor? I've been trying to understand it but I haven't grasped it yet. Oh well, I'm still looking forward to the excitement this product will generate and I'm going to try very hard not to want one.

A laptop requires a lap or desk... Try doing even the simplest of tasks on a laptop while standing and trying to balance with one hand/arm, while you do what ever it is your typing and scrolling with the other hand, while getting whiplash from all the head bobbing from keyboard to screen. A tablet would be so much easier, I bet! You've lost half the balancing act of an open screen floating out in the breeze while banging on the keyboard.

It also depends on what the tablet is to be used for and what's available to be seen on it, I guess... I mean, I wouldn't want to use it to type a ten page report for college or create a website or write a 300 word blog... give me a laptop or computer for that. However, multimedia magazines, newspapers, interactive e-books, pod casts, although a toss up with laptops tv and movies, iphone like apps that require little typing and uses the accelerometer and finger gestures instead, I could see on a tablet type device. And if it is more powerful regarding processing power over the iPhone, imagine what app store apps can be created for it! \

Have you ever tried that HP touch computer or laptop? Now that is where your question has more relevance. I mean, I have a keyboard and mouse, why would I want to put my greasy fingers on my screen?

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post #29 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmf2 View Post

I don't know if they will go with mini display port for devices intended to connect to a TV. The Apple TV does have HDMI. Who knows, they could do something un-Apple like and include two ports

Newer Apple notebooks are using Mini DisplayPort and there should be some Mini DisplayPort-to-HDMI adapters by now (either Apple's own or third-party). Apple is offering the Mini DisplayPort license fee free to other manufacturers.

I believe the latest Mac minis offer both mini-DVI and Mini DisplayPort, but my guess is based on the limitations of a portable device, they would only pick one video connector for a tablet.
post #30 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmf2 View Post

I'm still thinking Apple is going to start a new annual event much like the iPod event in the fall, except for video. This will probably be the year that Apple takes video as seriously as it does music.

Things to consider:
The Apple A/V dock features the old Apple remote, the current generation of iPhones/iPod Touch can probably support 720p video quite easily if Apple allowed it.
Apple TV is in dire need of an update (as usual) and 1080p hardware is readily available.
The 27' iMac screams for a blu ray drive.
iTunes subscription rumors are everywhere

Predictions:
New A/V dock with HDMI, supporting up to 720p playback. iPhone 3GS/iPod Touch firmware updated to allow playback of 720p files (mid product cycle sales boost).
Apple TV updated to support 1080p video (one could wish for apps and an API too, who knows).
Build to order blu ray drive options for new macs (would require an OS update).
iTunes/iTunes Store updated with 1080p video and some form of subscription service (both updates would probably be limited to a few select movies/tv show shows at first)


That in a nutshell is my vision of "Apple goes HD", the first iteration of an annual video event Apple holds in Jan/Feb. It makes a lot of sense to promote video as sales slow after Christmas and the winter months are a prime time for people to stay in the warmth of their own home and watch a movie. An Apple Tablet could easily fit in here and I would expect that future events would headline the Apple TV and the tablet, but given how much focus there is on magazines on the tablet and the sheer feature list it could have, I think it will probably have its own event this year. Another possibility would be updated Macbook pros with the new i7 chips, possibly with 16:9 screens (not that I want that, but they could go that way and it would fit the theme).

Of course I am probably completely out to lunch, but it is fun to dream.

Please don't take the following as being the same single-minded, rabid ranting of you know who.

While we are having fun dreaming, it would be nice if the January Event included the announcement that a matte finish screen was to be introduced as a BTO option on the new iMacs. I would also like to say however, that if money were a little more free-flowing in my house, I would go to the nearest Apple Store (Willowbrook Mall - Houston, Texas) right this minute and happily purchase either an i5 or i7 glossy screen iMac. I just think it would be nice to be able to compare glossy vs. matte side by side.
post #31 of 38
60% of the time, it works Every Time.
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post #32 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by g3pro View Post

The Great iPhone Fragmentation continues . . . .

Not really!

A single OS, UI and most apps are supported across the entire platform which consists of several different versions of several different devices.

--All devices can run the latest OS version

--An app that ran on the smallest, earliest iPhone (with it's original OS version) continues to run on the largest, latest devices with the latest OS version

--Any new app will run on any old device with requisite hardware, e.g. if it uses a camera, the device must have a camera.

It appears that Apple has done everything possible to create a unified platform that supports a disparate number of devices.

I suspect that this will continue with Tablet devices.

It has been obvious to anyone who develops apps for the platform that certain things like display size/shape/resolution will, likely, change as devices are added to the platform. The API provides for this "device independence" and a good developer will code accordingly.

*
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post #33 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by superkaratemonkeydeathcar View Post

60% of the time, it works Every Time.

(kudos on the N.R. references)
post #34 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Honestly I think Apple is gearing up to release an updated iPhone and/or iPod touch that's going to be a large step forward for gaming, and small but significant step forward otherwise.

The IPHONE developers that have been called in are working on IPHONE apps, new games to run on the new "all-about-gaming" hardware.

I bet it's not about the tablet at all.

aTV as the next incarnation of pippin.

I'm guessing tablet even if I would like an updated aTV that allowed iPod Touch games on the TV using the iPod and iPhones as controllers.
post #35 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheWatchfulOne View Post

There will always be a 50/50 chance of the "tablet" being announced/released because... it either will be or won't be.\

Until of course it actually gets announced in which case the odds increase to 100%.

What again is the appeal of the tablet form factor? I've been trying to understand it but I haven't grasped it yet. Oh well, I'm still looking forward to the excitement this product will generate and I'm going to try very hard not to want one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by g3pro View Post

The Great iPhone Fragmentation continues . . . .

Anyone know the % of iPhone use in the toilet? I remember reading Jobs didn't want to make some that eveyone uses in the toilet. So there must be a study on it.
post #36 of 38
I'll be happy and content with whatever Steve Jobs put out. The ability for a device to play music, browse web pages, and read electronic books would be wonderful.
post #37 of 38
Oh, when you're lurking on AppleInsider, it's so easy to have known all that so long before...

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People are lovers, basically. -- Engadget livebloggers at the iPad mini event.

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post #38 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by adamw View Post

I'll be happy and content with whatever Steve Jobs put out. The ability for a device to play music, browse web pages, and read electronic books would be wonderful.

They are called iMacs, MacBooks, Macs, iPhones, iPod touch.
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