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Apple seen selling 1.4 million $600 "Kindle Killer" tablets in 2010

post #1 of 149
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Even before it's been validated with a formal introduction, Apple's eagerly-awaited tablet device is being positioned by some members of the investment community as a device that could sell 1.4 million units in its first 9 months, just as others reiterate claims that it'll thrash Amazon's Kindle device in the process.

In a reactionary report released Monday afternoon, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said his own conversations with Taiwanese component suppliers last week reaffirm his belief that Apple will in all likelihood ship a tablet by March, with an unveiling coming as early as late January.

He estimates Apple will initially be capable of moving 162,000 of these devices per month, for an average yearly run rate of about 2 million units.

"For purposes of sensitivity, assuming the tablet comes out in March 2010, we believe Apple would sell around 1.4 units at a $600 [average selling price] in 2010," he wrote. "The tablet is not yet included in Street models, so we expect the multiple to expand as tablet hype builds ahead of the announcement, and numbers to go up once the device is announced."

Munster's comments come on the heels of media reports that pinpoint Apple as the direct -- or indirect-- owner of various tablet-suited trademarks such as iSlate, Magic Slate, and TabletMac. They also follow a pair of reports from earlier in the day that claim Apple has placed large orders for 10-inch tablet displays with reinforced glass panels.

While speculation has run rampant as to precisely how Apple plans to market and position the new handheld in the market place, Munster is a firm believer that the company will leverage the success of its App Store in allowing the device to run a flurry of available iPhone apps, in addition to a new breed of full-screen apps, all atop a more advanced version of its iPhone operating system.

"While there are several options ranging from a touch screen Mac OS X to an iPhone-like OS, we expect the tablet to be driven by a new version of Apple's iPhone OS that runs a new category of larger apps alongside all the current apps from the App Store," he said. "We believe Apple's tablet would compete well in the netbook category even though it would not be a netback."

In addition to serving as a new platform for iPhone apps and web surfing, Munster is also betting that the unannounced product will cater to entertainment junkies through tie-ins to Apple's ubiquitous iTunes Store. Recent reports have suggested that two network operators -- CBS and Disney -- are in serious negotiations with Apple over an iTunes TV subscription service that could offer tablet owners hours upon hours of their favorite television content for a low monthly fee.

Meanwhile, earlier reports had suggested another focus of the tablet would be the transformation of newspapers, magazines and other print media, with Apple reportedly courting several of the industry's largest publishers into private discussions on the matter.

For their part, Apple executives would later downplay these rumors, claiming they weren't enthusiastic about the online book and newspaper market, which they said was tied to an "unattractive industry structure."

Still, some industry watchers believe Apple could use its tablet device to drastically alter the landscape for print and digital print media by shaking things up and changing the rules of the game. For instance, it's been reported that some publishing executives didn't give a warm reception to Amazon's Kindle eBook reader because the retailer wanted to keep 70 percent of revenue.

Those same reports suggested that Apple's could implement a more attractive structure, similar to its iPhone App Store business model, where the company keeps only 30 percent of sales revenues and the publishers take home the rest of the pie.

Though talk of the Apple tablet as a digital book reader had fizzled in recent weeks, it was rejuvenated this week when Digg founder Kevin Rose claimed during the latest episode of This Week in Tech to know a source that has been describing the Apple tablet as a "Kindle killer" due to an emphasis on eBooks.

"Expect to see a lot of Kindles on eBay after the announcement," he said.

Meanwhile, another guest on the technology talk show, Robert Scoble, also claimed to have an Apple source of his own who's been echoing a focus on text. He said the tablet will be one of the first to truly take advantage of Apple's Quartz interface layer's advanced text support.

As Electronista points out, both Rose and Scoble have historically mixed track records when it comes to Apple-related rumors.

Should Apple manage to sell an estimated 1.4 million tablets during 9-month span of April to December, it would stand to pad its top line by an additional 2%, according to Piper Jaffray's Munster.
post #2 of 149
Prepare to see Kindles flood ebay a day after Apple's tablet release. If you ever wanted a Kindle for cheap, you're about to hit the jackpot.
post #3 of 149
I trust that whatever the tablet thingie turns out to be and however many end up being sold, that they will be counted as MacOS units in the quarterly count-off.
post #4 of 149
Wonder if there is no tablet at this announcement. What then?
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http://www.grammarbook.com/punctuation/quotes.asp

Never argue with idiots, they'll bring you down to their level and beat you with experience. - a bumper sticker

Never quote idiots, they just clog up...
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post #5 of 149
Quote:
"While there are several options ranging from a touch screen Mac OS X to an iPhone-like OS, we expect the tablet to be driven by a new version of Apple's iPhone OS that runs a new category of larger apps alongside all the current apps from the App Store," he said. "We believe Apple's tablet would compete well in the netbook category even though it would not be a netback."


OS X familiar UI is DOOMED!!


As I said in another thread, as more and more "iTablets" or "iSlates" start eating into Mac laptop sales, much like netbooks are doing to PC laptop sales now, the "iPhone OS" will slowly begin to dominate, leaving the present OS X UI as we know it only for the Mac "Pro" products eventually.

So we are going to see some sort of hybid OS in the new iTablets/iSlates. More powerful, but the simpler UI. Especially if we have to wave our hands and fingers at it to interface with it.
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The danger is that we sleepwalk into a world where cabals of corporations control not only the mainstream devices and the software on them, but also the entire ecosystem of online services around...
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post #6 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

In a reactionary report released Monday afternoon...

Ha-ha. That means the report was extremely right wing.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #7 of 149
I'm a little confused as to why anyone cares what Piper Jaffray says...
post #8 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by icyfog View Post

Wonder if there is no tablet at this announcement. What then?

Be prepared for Apple stock to drop faster that day then Dells marketshare.
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #9 of 149
But will it make phone calls?
post #10 of 149
Well maybe, but most people run programs on their Macs that rise above the level of Apps. I run ArchiCAD and VectorWorks on my MacBook Pro. On my other MacBook Pro I run AutoCAD and Revit in Boot Camp. Those aren't Apps.

I thought one of the selling points for Macs was that they're easy to use. They are, and they do things that can't and shouldn't be done on the iPhone OS.

I see the new tablet as an intermediate platform between the iPhone and the Mac. You will be able to do more on the tablet than the iPhone (bigger screen, more power and storage, etc.), but you will still want your laptop or desktop for heavier tasks. I look forward to it and will probably get one.
post #11 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

said. "We believe Apple's tablet would compete well in the netbook category even though it would not be a netbook."

more like would not be JUST a netbook.

Quote:
Munster is also betting that the unannounced product will cater to entertainment junkies through tie-ins to Apple's ubiquitous iTunes Store.

if that includes 720p video at least via standard downloaded materials, that would be a huge win. with or without streaming at 720p

Quote:
For their part, Apple executives would later downplay these rumors, claiming they weren't enthusiastic about the online book and newspaper market, which they said was tied to an "unattractive industry structure."

some of that downplaying seemed to be of comments suggesting that Device X would be just an ebook reader. however I could see a built in app for reading pdfs easily, perhaps one for CBR (used by many comics) and support to get a Kindle App on the device. such an app on the touch or phone might not go so well cause of screen size but a 7 or 10 inch screen would work better. the latter is essentially the same size as the Kindle and the Nook
post #12 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by battiato1981 View Post

I trust that whatever the tablet thingie turns out to be and however many end up being sold, that they will be counted as MacOS units in the quarterly count-off.

Very unlikely.

If this thing has an ARM processor (which in all likelihood it will), it will not run OS X and would not be considered a Mac.
post #13 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by battiato1981 View Post

I trust that whatever the tablet thingie turns out to be and however many end up being sold, that they will be counted as MacOS units in the quarterly count-off.

I think they will be lumped in with iPods.
post #14 of 149
I don't know much about the displays the Kindle uses compared to a standard LCD screen (as found in the iPhone), but couldn't one potentially be able to display both types of images?

In regular view mode, it's a large iPhone. Color graphics, etc. Change it to e-ink mode and the backlight turns off (or goes ultra-low power) and the screen goes to black and white (or gray). (Although white text on a black background would suck.)

Anyway, a hybrid display could exist and be possible, no?
post #15 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by Undo Redo View Post

But will it make phone calls?

Doubtful. How many people want to pay a cellular voice contract for a device that isn't pocketable and would require a headset (wired or wireless)?

The only way to do this would be to run some sort of VoIP app (which you can already do with your iPhone or iPod touch).
post #16 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Very unlikely.

If this thing has an ARM processor (which in all likelihood it will), it will not run OS X and would not be considered a Mac.

I'm think it will probably be the first device to feature Apple's custom ARM CPU designed by the PA Semi folk.
post #17 of 149
i love how the investment people are pricing apple's products. they've done such a bang up job with everything else.

here's to apple pricing their products as they see fit.
post #18 of 149
The best part about articles and speculation like this is imagining how infuriated it must make Ballmer.
post #19 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by macinthe408 View Post

I don't know much about the displays the Kindle uses compared to a standard LCD screen (as found in the iPhone), but couldn't one potentially be able to display both types of images?

In regular view mode, it's a large iPhone. Color graphics, etc. Change it to e-ink mode and the backlight turns off (or goes ultra-low power) and the screen goes to black and white (or gray). (Although white text on a black background would suck.)

Anyway, a hybrid display could exist and be possible, no?

I believe that theoretically a hybrid display could exist. The real questions are how much would it cost and how well would it perform.

My guess is that Apple tested dozens of different displays of various sizes, features, power requirements, etc. Right now, it seems like they have selected one part. Whether or not that dual-mode functionality is in the part that they selected is pure speculation at this time, but I wouldn't bet on it.
post #20 of 149
And a couple of months before the 5G iPod came out, Steve Jobs said no one would bother watching video on such a small screen. Or the fact that he said flash was for cheaper players a few months before the nano came out. Or how in an interview after the 3rd gen iPod Touch was announced, he pretty much lied about having no interest in sticking a camera in the iPod Touch.

CEOs do NOT tell the truth unless it's time to make an announcement. If they blabbed about everything they were working on, they wouldn't make for a very good CEO (or senior executive in general).

No, what's much more important is if higher ups start retreating in saying anything at all, that's because a gag order has probably been put into place to make sure that the final information about a deal doesn't leak. Anything before that is pretty much rumor/speculation that fuels the fire. For example, when Kevin Rose nailed the September iPod event announcements in 2008, no one was surprised and everyone seemed "disappointed". Or the fact that there was a confluence of signs that the iPod Touch was going to get a camera and it didn't.

Not saying something is much more important than saying something in CEO land, where every word is guarded. More focus is spent on what IS said instead of what ISN'T said.
post #21 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacCad View Post

Why not bring Apps to Mac OS?


I hope that in 10.7 The Dashboard layer's widgets are replaced with apps.
When you purchase an app, you can try it out in the Dashboard right away.
The only problem is GPS chips, multitouch, screen rotation, etc.
post #22 of 149
I hope the price is more like $399 and not $599. That would really fit into everyone's price range. But, I am glad to see my stocks go up.
post #23 of 149
Even if they make this mythical device a subset of the iPod line it would make more sense. Standalone "iSlate" ain't workin'.

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post #24 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

I hope that in 10.7 The Dashboard layer's widgets are replaced with apps.
When you purchase an app, you can try it out in the Dashboard right away.
The only problem is GPS chips, multitouch, screen rotation, etc.

Multi-touch is already in the trackpad. I dont even use scrollbars in most apps on a MBP, just two finger scrolling. rotation works well but there are few apps that utilize it.

Dashboard Widgets were no updated and are severly lacking in Snow Leopard. The move to 64-bit for Dashboard has also brought some quirks with it, or maybe that is using a more modern WebKit engine with older Widget code.

Adding a GPS chip to Mac notebooks should have happened already, IMO. Its small, cheap and very useful. They did add an IP address-based time zone finder with SL, but a GPS chip would be useful, too. They also need to update Safari, Widgets to utilize the HTML5 geo location for weather, movies, maps, etc.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #25 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by melodyof1974 View Post

I hope the price is more like $399 and not $599. That would really fit into everyone's price range. But, I am glad to see my stocks go up.

It will be priced higher at first and then the price will come down over time.

iPod $399-499 --> $79-399
iPhone $499-599 --> $99-299
post #26 of 149
[QUOTE=AppleInsider;1540226]"We believe Apple's tablet would compete well in the netbook category even though it would not be a netback."

A 'netback'? Double Typo Alert?! ...shivers and shakes... that almost sounds 'slur-ish' like... but we know that is not the case!


Quote:
Still, some industry watchers believe Apple could use its tablet device to drastically alter the landscape for print and digital print media by shaking things up and changing the rules of the game.

should read... "shaking things up 'AGAIN'...

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Ten years ago, we had Steve Jobs, Bob Hope and Johnny Cash.  Today we have no Jobs, no Hope and no Cash.

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post #27 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booga View Post

The best part about articles and speculation like this is imagining how infuriated it must make Ballmer.

Or when the product is introduced and everyones idea of the perfect tablet doesn't contain their ideal specs... it's RANT TIME!

Ballmer is always infuriated! MS get's showed up at every turn and he is at the helm of the company... Gates got out just in time! \

Ten years ago, we had Steve Jobs, Bob Hope and Johnny Cash.  Today we have no Jobs, no Hope and no Cash.

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Ten years ago, we had Steve Jobs, Bob Hope and Johnny Cash.  Today we have no Jobs, no Hope and no Cash.

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post #28 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by icyfog View Post

Wonder if there is no tablet at this announcement. What then?

Then Apple will have really screwed up big time. If Apple isn't planning on announcing the tablet, then they would be trying to control the hype. If Apple were only using this announcement for new laptops, iLife, etc..., or anything else, they wouldn't want people to be disappointed.

Instead, they can get by without saying what they will announce, because it will in fact be the tablet, and doing it this way just builds more hype.
post #29 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by macslut View Post

Then Apple will have really screwed up big time. If Apple isn't planning on announcing the tablet, then they would be trying to control the hype. If Apple were only using this announcement for new laptops, iLife, etc..., or anything else, they wouldn't want people to be disappointed.

No, the rumor mongers will have screwed up big time. It's easy to forget that everything we think we know about this product and when it will appear is based entirely on rumor. Apple can't be seen as having screwed up for not releasing a product that they've never even acknowledged is in development, let alone at a place and time that others have guessed.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #30 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Very unlikely.

If this thing has an ARM processor (which in all likelihood it will), it will not run OS X and would not be considered a Mac.

Just to be picky ...

iPhone runs OS X, and OS X runs on intel, ARM, and PowerPC chips.
The processor has nothing to do with it.
post #31 of 149
Dear AI,

Couldn't you just put these lines of speculations without the recapitulation of the matter?
It's really annoying that when an analyst open his mouth and says 2 ou 3 sentences (of speculation), you resume and repeat all the other rumors from the past 6 months.

It's so redundant!
I'm not fan of twitter but you should use that length for each post because you don't come up with more new infos at all.
post #32 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by icyfog View Post

Wonder if there is no tablet at this announcement. What then?

Stock will drop, of course.
post #33 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacTripper View Post

OS X familiar UI is DOOMED!!


As I said in another thread, as more and more "iTablets" or "iSlates" start eating into Mac laptop sales, much like netbooks are doing to PC laptop sales now, the "iPhone OS" will slowly begin to dominate, leaving the present OS X UI as we know it only for the Mac "Pro" products eventually.

So we are going to see some sort of hybid OS in the new iTablets/iSlates. More powerful, but the simpler UI. Especially if we have to wave our hands and fingers at it to interface with it.

I had a friend tell me that he thought that it looked like Mac OS was being condensed so that it could be the eventual "all in one" OS for most Apple products, with the obvious exceptions being the iPod Classic, Nano, Mini, etc. He specifically mentioned this in light of the space he gained on his iMac and MBP when he upgraded from Leopard to Snow Leopard. However, I'm not sure Apple would want to use the new tablet as an "experimental" platform to work that out.
post #34 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Ha-ha. That means the report was extremely right wing.

Frankly it is currently a favored word of the left when faced with common sense.


Dave
post #35 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by dagamer34 View Post

And a couple of months before the 5G iPod came out, Steve Jobs said no one would bother watching video on such a small screen. Or the fact that he said flash was for cheaper players a few months before the nano came out. Or how in an interview after the 3rd gen iPod Touch was announced, he pretty much lied about having no interest in sticking a camera in the iPod Touch.

CEOs do NOT tell the truth unless it's time to make an announcement. If they blabbed about everything they were working on, they wouldn't make for a very good CEO (or senior executive in general).

No, what's much more important is if higher ups start retreating in saying anything at all, that's because a gag order has probably been put into place to make sure that the final information about a deal doesn't leak. Anything before that is pretty much rumor/speculation that fuels the fire. For example, when Kevin Rose nailed the September iPod event announcements in 2008, no one was surprised and everyone seemed "disappointed". Or the fact that there was a confluence of signs that the iPod Touch was going to get a camera and it didn't.

Not saying something is much more important than saying something in CEO land, where every word is guarded. More focus is spent on what IS said instead of what ISN'T said.

Deliberate misdirection then? probably not.
post #36 of 149
With college books costing hundreds a pop these days, imagine an always connected tablet that can contain all your low price interactive electronic books, your class notes and hand outs, your schedules and lecture videos and recordings, your magazines, your tunes, TV shows, movies and games etc... Plus it knows who and where you and others are and can communicate and/or guide you to your next destination.

Wow a lot of industries are going to change folks. Hold on to your hats.

Time will tell.
post #37 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post

Just to be picky ...

iPhone runs OS X, and OS X runs on intel, ARM, and PowerPC chips.
The processor has nothing to do with it.

Sorry, you're wrong. The iPhone runs the iPhone OS.

If you look at all of Apple's documentation, whether it be end user or developer documentation, the operating system that runs on the iPhone is never referred to as OS X.
post #38 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cranky View Post

I had a friend tell me that he thought that it looked like Mac OS was being condensed so that it could be the eventual "all in one" OS for most Apple products, with the obvious exceptions being the iPod Classic, Nano, Mini, etc. He specifically mentioned this in light of the space he gained on his iMac and MBP when he upgraded from Leopard to Snow Leopard. However, I'm not sure Apple would want to use the new tablet as an "experimental" platform to work that out.

The shrinkage in the installed size of OS/X is well documented. Instead of repeating the ramblings of an idiot spend a little time looking for the truth.

As to what is included in OS/X Apple is certainly trying to trim out legacy crap. In many cases though the actual space saved is minimal as new APIs are introduced. The fact is a desktop OS, especially a UNIX based one, has to serve many more needs than an OS for a Phone. In effect iPhone OS condenses OS/X (to use your word) into a form suitable for a phone.

Dave
post #39 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by macslut View Post

Then Apple will have really screwed up big time. If Apple isn't planning on announcing the tablet, then they would be trying to control the hype. If Apple were only using this announcement for new laptops, iLife, etc..., or anything else, they wouldn't want people to be disappointed.

Instead, they can get by without saying what they will announce, because it will in fact be the tablet, and doing it this way just builds more hype.

I'd laugh for days if there were no "slate" introduced, and of course load up on more AAPL as it gets hammered by Wall Street. What a country, where you can call yourself an "analyst" (which technically means that they "analyze") and make stuff up to influence gullible people to buy manipulated stock to inflate the price, which in turn plummets in value once the fibs you've seeded don't work out.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #40 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

Prepare to see Kindles flood ebay a day after Apple's tablet release.

I still fail to see what a tablet has got to do with a Kindle. They are different products. The whole point of e-ink is it's not a computer. They are not and never will be the same product category.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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