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Apple's Mac, iPod sales face favorable comps in early 2010

post #1 of 8
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Apple's recently concluded December quarter is expected to produce blockbuster results for the company, and that momentum is forecast to carry into early 2010 with a favorable landscape.

Domestic Mac sales for the first half of 2009 eased by 1 percent. Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said these comparisons will give investors a buying opportunity for AAPL stock, as he expects "meaningful unit growth" for the Mac in early 2010.

Unlike the second half of 2009, when outstanding Mac sales jumped 18 percent, the first half of 2009 saw a year-over-year decline. That places Apple in a position to exceed expectations, Munster said.

"Domestic retail data from NPD carries a strong correlation with quarterly Mac sales," he said in a note to investors issued Tuesday morning. "As such, the monthly [year-over-year] growth rate is widely used as a leading indicator for Mac sales. [Year-over-year] comparable growth rates ease for Macs in [first half of 2010], and should make for strong Mac unit growth in [first half of 2010]."



Similarly, year-over-year comps for iPod sales are off 14 percent for the first half of 2010. Compare that to the second half of 2009, when the comparison to 2008 was off just 3 percent.

"We see these easing comps as a buying opportunity ahead of NPD data for the final month of the Dec. quarter on 1/18," he said, "and we reiterate our [overweight] rating ($277 price target)."



Apple's first fiscal quarter ended the day after Christmas, Dec. 26. In analyzing NPD data for October and November, Munster believes new the new iMac will push Apple to between 2.9 million and 3 million total sales for the three-month frame.

Data for October and November shows overall Mac sales up 21 percent year over year, carried by a 74 percent increase in desktop Mac sales. In October, the new 21.5-inch iMac was the best-selling destkop in the U.S.

iPod sales for the December quarter are predicted to be between 19 million and 20 million, which would represent an 11 percent year-overyear decline. This is representative of the continued cannibalization of the iPod line with the iPhone. Some believe Apple could have sold as many as 11 million iPhones last quarter, which would be by far the most successful quarter for the handset in its history.
post #2 of 8
Do we know yet when the company's quarterly report/analyst Q&A will be?
post #3 of 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by rtdunham View Post

Do we know yet when the company's quarterly report/analyst Q&A will be?

A date hasn't been announced AFAIK, but it should happen around the middle of January. The coincides with the expected media event, more or less, so I would not be surprised to see some sort of earnings announcement along with a product rollout.
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post #4 of 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Similarly, year-over-year comps for iPod sales are off 14 percent for the first half of 2010. Compare that to the second half of 2009, when the comparison to 2008 was off just 3 percent.

"We see these easing comps as a buying opportunity ahead of NPD data for the final month of the Dec. quarter on 1/18," he said, "and we reiterate our [overweight] rating ($277 price target)."

What is "comps" supposed to mean? Comparisons? I know what all the other words mean, but I don't understand them as a whole. I don't read many stock stories outside of AI, and I don't recall seeing it used before here or elsewhere.
post #5 of 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

What is "comps" supposed to mean? Comparisons? I know what all the other words mean, but I don't understand them as a whole. I don't read many stock stories outside of AI, and I don't recall seeing it used before here or elsewhere.

Comparisons. It is an example of analysts using jargon to try to make themselves appear to be more knowledgeable and connected.
post #6 of 8
Even as well as Apple did this year, Amazon easily outperformed them and only needed to sell 2 million Kindles in the process. You'd really think that Apple would make far more profit from each subsidized iPhone than Amazon would make from a Kindle. The only difference is that iPhone revenue is spread out over multiple quarters. In order for Apple to keep pace with Amazon's stock rise, it would have to sell about 15 million iPhones a quarter.
post #7 of 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by rtdunham View Post

Do we know yet when the company's quarterly report/analyst Q&A will be?

Apple has not yet announced the date. It is typically the third week of the month. Last Announcement was October 19. Expect blow out numbers.

BTW, MSFT will announce earnings on January 28, one day after Apple's special event. Expect fair numbers which will pall neaxt to Apple's.

Should be an interesting month.
post #8 of 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

Even as well as Apple did this year, Amazon easily outperformed them and only needed to sell 2 million Kindles in the process. You'd really think that Apple would make far more profit from each subsidized iPhone than Amazon would make from a Kindle. The only difference is that iPhone revenue is spread out over multiple quarters. In order for Apple to keep pace with Amazon's stock rise, it would have to sell about 15 million iPhones a quarter.

Actually, not. AAPL and AMZN paced each other throughout 2009.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL...z=m&q=l&c=amzn

You also make the mistake of assuming that Amazon's profits are derived mainly from the Kindle, which is obviously ridiculous, since Amazon is primarily a retailer, and we don't know how much they made from Kindle sales. Apple's gross profit was $13.1 billion last year. Amazon's was $4.3 billion.
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