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Piper: 15.8M US iPhone sales in 2010, even without Verizon

post #1 of 18
Thread Starter 
Apple is projected to sell 36 million iPhones worldwide in 2010, but Piper Jaffray concedes that total is likely conservative for international sales, and doesn't include the possibility of expansion to other carriers in the U.S.

If Apple does sell 36 million iPhones in 2010, it would be a 40 percent increase from 2009 estimates. In a note to investors Wednesday morning, Gene Munster, senior research analyst with Piper Jaffray, noted that 2010 will mark the first full year of sales with two new carriers in France, Canada and the U.K., and it will also include a full year of sales in China. Sales will be driven by a new iPhone model expected to arrive mid-year.

"We estimated unit figures for the U.S., U.K., France and Germany, then divided the remaining units proportionally by sub count among the remaining carriers," Munster said of his estimates. "The results show that our international iPhone estimates may be a point of conservatism in our model.

"For example, we are modeling for three Russian carriers to sell 1.8M units into a collective sub base of 160M in (calendar year) 2010 vs. AT&T which we estimate will sell 15.8M units to its sub base of 82.5M."

Munster's U.S. estimates don't include projections for a possible Verizon expansion. Currently, AT&T is the exclusive carrier of the iPhone in the U.S. Munster has previously predicted that the Verizon network will be the "next big feature" for the iPhone.

This week, another report speculated that Apple and Verizon are at odds over the pricing of a CDMA iPhone. Recent reports have suggested that a Verizon-capable iPhone could arrive this year.

"We continue to believe that it is highly likely that Verizon will launch the iPhone by the end of 2010," Munster said. "However, Verizon is not in our model and may be a source of significant upside for iPhone units in 2010 and beyond."

By 2011, on AT&T alone, Munster has forecast 21.3 million iPhone sales in the U.S. He expects the platform to continue its rapid growth, with at least 48.5 million total unit sales next year, based on his "conservative" estimates.
post #2 of 18
Quite a number. It's not just on thie high side, it's way past it.
post #3 of 18
Wow! With current and projected future numbers of sales, I guess shows Verizon where they can take their "map for that" and where to place it!

Ten years ago, we had Steve Jobs, Bob Hope and Johnny Cash.  Today we have no Jobs, no Hope and no Cash.

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Ten years ago, we had Steve Jobs, Bob Hope and Johnny Cash.  Today we have no Jobs, no Hope and no Cash.

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post #4 of 18
Oh, my! Dumbasses! Where're damn calculators when guys need those?! 36M of worldwide sales, okay, then WiFi is enabled and China buys out 97,63%!!! How come the States're getting 15M???

We mean Apple no harm.

People are lovers, basically. -- Engadget livebloggers at the iPad mini event.

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We mean Apple no harm.

People are lovers, basically. -- Engadget livebloggers at the iPad mini event.

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post #5 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by ivan.rnn01 View Post

Oh, my! Dumbasses! Where're damn calculators when guys need those?! 36M of worldwide sales, okay, then WiFi is enabled and China buys out 97,63%!!! How come the States're getting 15M???

Coffee first, then posting, please. I don't understand a word of that.
post #6 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by cliphord View Post

Coffee first, then posting, please. I don't understand a word of that.

He is French. Enough Said.

Apple should stop the exclusivity even if Verizon continues to be a dick. Go to T-Mobile, or US Cellular, go to sprint and whoever really takes the phone (which I hope will be everyone). Android is already on most manufacturers and almost all carriers, which will be a huge advantage in the medium term. If apple is unsure about ending exclusivity, well there is a greenback for that.
--SHEFFmachine out
Da Bears!
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--SHEFFmachine out
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post #7 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheff View Post

He is French. Enough Said.

(Edit)

never mind.
post #8 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

What do you mean by this? That English might not be his first language and it might be difficult for him to articulate certain ideas, or something else?

Quadra, Quadra, please! Enough said already for the report. I'm just fighting temptations to stomp nia... - well, you know what I mean.

We mean Apple no harm.

People are lovers, basically. -- Engadget livebloggers at the iPad mini event.

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We mean Apple no harm.

People are lovers, basically. -- Engadget livebloggers at the iPad mini event.

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post #9 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by ivan.rnn01 View Post

Quadra, Quadra, please! Enough said already for the report. I'm just fighting temptations to stomp nia... - well, you know what I mean.

Hehe . . . I know what you mean.
post #10 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

Hehe . . . I know what you mean.

Thanks anyway.

We mean Apple no harm.

People are lovers, basically. -- Engadget livebloggers at the iPad mini event.

Reply

We mean Apple no harm.

People are lovers, basically. -- Engadget livebloggers at the iPad mini event.

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post #11 of 18
I thought Apple had given up on the Russians. I'd heard iPhone sales were terrible in that region. Another country that is greatly suffering from economic depression. Maybe they're hoping something will change in 2010. I doubt it.

Munster says that iPhone sales may reach 36 million in 2010? In 2007 or 2008 he was claiming iPhones sales would be about 45 million in 2009. He probably doesn't have a clue. This year Apple must have sold from 24 to 27 million iPhones, so 36 million would be quite a jump. China sales will be a huge question mark. The figures don't include Verizon but that's OK because nobody seems to know exactly when the AT&T exclusivity is to end. Maybe this year or next?
post #12 of 18
What the heck are you guys talking about?!
post #13 of 18
Apple fined Russian carriers for unsold iPhones.

We mean Apple no harm.

People are lovers, basically. -- Engadget livebloggers at the iPad mini event.

Reply

We mean Apple no harm.

People are lovers, basically. -- Engadget livebloggers at the iPad mini event.

Reply
post #14 of 18
Claims the iSlate will use Verizon:

Quote:
Computerworld - Apple's tablet will use Verizon's wireless data network to connect to the Internet when users are out of range of a Wi-Fi hotspot, a Wall Street analyst today said his sources were reporting.

"The tablet will be supported by multiple [mobile] carriers," said Brian Marshall of Broadpoint AmTech, citing unnamed sources he said were close to the situation. "Verizon and others," he continued. "Definitely Verizon. I've been told that's a certainty."
post #15 of 18
The more iPhones, the merrier. The more carriers, the more merrier.
post #16 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rot'nApple View Post

Wow! With current and projected future numbers of sales, I guess shows Verizon where they can take their "map for that" and where to place it!

"There's a charge for that"
post #17 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

Quite a number. It's not just on thie high side, it's way past it.

i think next yr apple will sell 60 phone units total .
with a coming 10 percent price drop
if you look at the smart phone markets explosion apple can easily sell 60 mill in a 2,6 bn adult market population

don't forget the iphone has just gotten started >> and the world is slowly getting a handle on the beauty of the jesus phone

look for 200 mill in 2014



peace

happy new year dude

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beatles
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post #18 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple is projected to sell 36 million iPhones worldwide in 2010....

Count me, my brother, and my brother-in-law in. I can upgrade now, but I'm waiting for iPhone4. The other two will be out of contract in July. If they go to Verizon, my wife might forget she "hates the iPhone" and get one too.

It will be a good year for the iPhone and I, if Apple decides to make it a feature packed upgrade. If not, I might just stick to the good old 3G.
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