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Microsoft, HP introduce touchscreen 'slate PC' at CES - Page 6

post #201 of 227
i dont really know about MP3 players being niche, i was a 7th grader at the time the ipod debuted and there were a few kids rolling around with MP3 players one of whom was my friend who also introduced me to Torrents, i didnt even see my first iPod until halfway in 8th grade (2002) and the time i went to high school in 03 they had blown up.

I remember seeing my first iPod, it was the one that didnt look like an an eye sore because it didnt have the raised buttons. I didnt get my first one until 05? It was the first year the Nano came out iirc cause i got a 4gb in black for christmas cause i had a Moto Rokr that i had all kinds of modded and broke that 100 song limit Apple imposed until i bricked it and couldnt get it to boot anymore and i only had it for a few months lol.

Anyways the iPod benefited from the huge boom of computers in homes (we didnt get one until like high school cause we got DSL) and piracy. iirc Napster had been shutdown around 03 but Kazaa had taken over and Limewire was the largely unknown p2p client. CD-Rs were still way overpriced at this time as well so burning CDs was illogical but not dead since cars didnt have MP3 playback (so you still kept that case of CDs) or hook ups. All these things culminated to the iPods success.
post #202 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by ifail View Post

i dont really know about MP3 players being niche, i was a 7th grader at the time the ipod debuted and there were a few kids rolling around with MP3 players one of whom was my friend who also introduced me to Torrents, i didnt even see my first iPod until halfway in 8th grade (2002) and the time i went to high school in 03 they had blown up.

I remember seeing my first iPod, it was the one that didnt look like an an eye sore because it didnt have the raised buttons. I didnt get my first one until 05? It was the first year the Nano came out iirc cause i got a 4gb in black for christmas cause i had a Moto Rokr that i had all kinds of modded and broke that 100 song limit Apple imposed until i bricked it and couldnt get it to boot anymore and i only had it for a few months lol.

Anyways the iPod benefited from the huge boom of computers in homes (we didnt get one until like high school cause we got DSL) and piracy. iirc Napster had been shutdown around 03 but Kazaa had taken over and Limewire was the largely unknown p2p client. CD-Rs were still way overpriced at this time as well so burning CDs was illogical but not dead since cars didnt have MP3 playback (so you still kept that case of CDs) or hook ups. All these things culminated to the iPods success.

I'm sorry, but citing your personal experience and running through some contemporaneous developments to conclude that "All these things culminated to the iPods success" is backwards reasoning, aka the Post Hoc fallacy.

It's also a variation on the standard "right place, right time" argument that Apple skeptics trot out to explain any successes that company may have, with the implication that Apple just blunders into its good fortune by being slightly ahead of the curve.

If you bring out a product that changes its market, and the entire associated economy of that market, forever, maybe, just maybe, that's "luck." If you do it twice within a few years, all the while growing your computer market share and posting the best profits in the business, maybe there's a really smart, capable strategy at work?

If you have to make convoluted arguments to explain Apple's runaway success with formally fringe segments of the computing industry, in order to establish that any tablet from Apple is destined to fail, I would take that as a sign that there's a problem with your underlying assumptions.
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post #203 of 227
I crabbed the links from the Macalope, but it is pretty interesting to look at the last two time MS introduced a "slate" computer. By the way, for all the people strenuously insisting that "slate" is the customary name for these things so shut up all ready about MS fucking with Apple by calling it such, you'll note that they didn't call it that in either of these previous cases, going with "tablet" and "UMPC" respectively. Please also note that this sorry track record might just have a wee bit to do with why we've failed to be blown away by the Next Great Thing From the People Who Depend On Your Short Term Memory Loss.

I would also urge anyone still under the thrall of "Courier" to take a good long look at MS's giddy conceptual videos for their Origami UMPC thingee, if only because it's classic MS "just close your eyes and dream with us" marketing. I well remember the cries of the faithful when that bit of whimsy was distributed, about how Apple was about to get slammed by genuine innovation, how MS's deep pockets and vast underground caverns of research bots were bringing the hurt, and how Cupertino was suddenly left looking like yesterday's news. Listening to people talk about MS and Apple is like living in Groundhog's day, except MS and her fans are Bill Murray and they never learn a goddamn thing.

I like the Macalope's take:

Quote:
Microsoft’s tablet “strategy” is like an Escher painting, full of staircases leading in every direction that all ultimately just go round in circles. The company so badly wants to be Prometheus, bringing fire to the mortals. Instead it’s like some drunk dude flicking matches at us.
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post #204 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by JumpM View Post

There is no real excitement about the "Slate PC" because it is not much new. Microsoft advertised such "slate form factor" devises since years as Ultra-Mobile PCs (UMPC) ... and they didn't sell well at all.

Part of the reason was that they were expensive and clunky and there was no real use-case known for them. The current fuss about tablets is a big different: They are not that expensive since they have to compete with netbooks and smartphones. They finally have a little better design; in particular they are no longer that thick . And you can finally use them with the finger, no need for a stylus.

What is still missing, is the real use-case and how being a full-fledged Windows 7 PC helps with it. They certainly are appealing as a secondary or ternary computer for surfing the web and E-Book reading - so providing bigger screens for that than smartphones and replacing what netbooks were initially designed for before manufacturers starting installing Windows XP on them and selling them as cheap laptops without optical drives. And it's a step ahead if you have dedicated E-Book software on such a device. But browsing the web with a regular Windows browser using a touch screen with no dedicated touch gestures? Not really. Playing regular Windows games? Mostly not interesting if they didn't adapt the controls to a touch screen - just try to play Minesweeper on a touchscreen and you'll see what I mean .... not even starting about first person shooters or flight simulator or anything fancy.

I think, such a devise really needs careful adjustment and Safari on iPhone and the iTunes App Store with tons of E-Book software and games for touch interfaces is a much better direction than just saying "it runs Windows 7" ... but of course, Apps for Cocoa Touch would still needed to be adapted to bigger screens and so on.

I'm actually the opposite! I can't see why you wouldn't want your slate running Windows 7 (or OS X). IMO the worst thing Apple can do is treat their slate as an iPhone with a bigger screen. Having a totally custom UI\\OS works brilliantly for the iPhone\\iPod but it would be limiting for a larger screen device.

If I'm going to be handing over many hundreds of dollars I want a versatile all-in-one device that not only acts as an eBook/portable media device/web & email browser but is also able to replace my netbook, rather than just be another way to consume iTunes content (i.e. like Apple TV).

At the moment I take an iPhone, iPod and a netbook with me so it doesn't matter how pretty Apple's slate is there is just no way it is going to find room in my bag if it can't replace my netbook.

The other alternative if that it never leaves the house and is just a convenient way to read and web browse without having a netbook on my lap which sounds awesome... but not for $500+.
post #205 of 227
Please tell me at least this is not just win 7 in a small form factor meaning windows start menu and so on.

A new touch device should have icons similar to msicosofts control panel where you touch the icin and it does something. Not just a slimmed down windows machine. And where is the courier??
post #206 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avidfcp View Post

Please tell me at least this is not just win 7 in a small form factor meaning windows start menu and so on.

A new touch device should have icons similar to msicosofts control panel where you touch the icin and it does something. Not just a slimmed down windows machine. And where is the courier??

Yes it is full Windows 7 and thank god for that. The MS slate is a netbook replacement, not an iPhone with a big screen.
post #207 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

Yes it is full Windows 7 and thank god for that. The MS slate is a netbook replacement, not an iPhone with a big screen.

But how do you press all the tiny icons and so on if it is just running Windows 7 without any sort of "Slate GUI" or something on top of it? Do you use a stylus? Is there a "Slate GUI" for Windows 7?
post #208 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

The other alternative if that it never leaves the house and is just a convenient way to read and web browse without having a netbook on my lap which sounds awesome... but not for $500+.

I'm predicting this angle. Convenient way to do stuff without needing a netbook or laptop, $699 and $799 price points. For home use, and for those on-the-road who want something netbook-like but don't want a netbook (for many reasons) nor want to carry around their heavier, more expensive laptop.

It will be hella sexy for the ladies too, instead of the clunky netbook you have a sleek slate you can slide in your handbag. Not to say that it is effeminate, for the guys it's just cool tech that you could carry around instead of your netbook.

Home use, and on the road, and with the App Store it will have special uses in some verticals eg. Medical industry.

Apple will price it for 30% gross profit margins or so. Or maybe there will be 3G models sold through telco partnerships to make it "affordable".
post #209 of 227
Sure the thing I was holding was not much more than a electronic photoframe, but most people don't know that and that's what counts! I've bought enough time to actually develope this stuff for real! Once we see what Jobs does the bar is set!

You people are soooo gullible!
post #210 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

But how do you press all the tiny icons and so on if it is just running Windows 7 without any sort of "Slate GUI" or something on top of it? Do you use a stylus? Is there a "Slate GUI" for Windows 7?

Right. How do you use Office? Are there a lot of third party apps that have been tailored for slate duty? Just saying "Oh good, Windows 7, it's a net book replacement" doesn't really mean much.
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post #211 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

But how do you press all the tiny icons and so on if it is just running Windows 7 without any sort of "Slate GUI" or something on top of it? Do you use a stylus? Is there a "Slate GUI" for Windows 7?

The same way you press the tiny icons on the iPhone\\iTouch At 1024*576 an 11" slate would have about 5% less pixels\\inch than the 27" iMac. In other words... the screen isn't that small for the resolution.

That said I'd be surprised if they didn't eventually come up with some kind of slate UI. The most likely candidate would be Windows Presentation Foundation apps hosted in a Media Centre - ish launcher. That most certainly wasn't part of the demo though.

The concept of Microsoft\\Apple getting rid of the back end Windows\\OS X in these slate devices just because people expect it to look like an iPhone seems to me like throwing out the baby with the bath water.




Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Right. How do you use Office? Are there a lot of third party apps that have been tailored for slate duty? Just saying "Oh good, Windows 7, it's a net book replacement" doesn't really mean much.

Unless you have really massive fingers (I'm talking "mash the keyboard to continue" big) Windows 7 & Office are both functional on a touch screen. Granted you aren't going to want to write a novel using a 5" on screen keyboard, but for basic document editing it would be fine.




Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

I'm predicting this angle. Convenient way to do stuff without needing a netbook or laptop, $699 and $799 price points. For home use, and for those on-the-road who want something netbook-like but don't want a netbook (for many reasons) nor want to carry around their heavier, more expensive laptop.

It will be hella sexy for the ladies too, instead of the clunky netbook you have a sleek slate you can slide in your handbag. Not to say that it is effeminate, for the guys it's just cool tech that you could carry around instead of your netbook.

Home use, and on the road, and with the App Store it will have special uses in some verticals eg. Medical industry.

Apple will price it for 30% gross profit margins or so. Or maybe there will be 3G models sold through telco partnerships to make it "affordable".

IMO it's risky to go for the "iPhone with big screen". In a way Apple have made the iPhone too good. Basic email, contacts, appointments, web browsing on-the-go... people have iPhone's to do that.

If 6 months go by and Microsoft release a Windows 7 front end UI for slate devices meaning they can have all the pretty stuff as well as replace your netbook... "iPhone with big screen" for $799 just doesn't seem like the best deal.

Personally I'm hoping for OS X with a pretty new UI. If not then I wait to see what Microsoft comes up with.
post #212 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

The same way you press the tiny icons on the iPhone\\iTouch At 1024*576 an 11" slate would have about 5% less pixels\\inch than the 27" iMac. In other words... the screen isn't that small for the resolution.

That said I'd be surprised if they didn't eventually come up with some kind of slate UI. The most likely candidate would be Windows Presentation Foundation apps hosted in a Media Centre - ish launcher. That most certainly wasn't part of the demo though.

It's more than just slapping some touch stuff on there-- it's how all the parts interact, thinking through the entire idea of a 10" device that you hold in your hand-- where your hands are likely to be, what you'll be using it for, etc. The "tiny icons" of the iPhone are all designed with that device in mind-- not just scaled down bits of desktop UI, but a very specific vocabulary of shapes, positioning and interaction.

Quote:
The concept of Microsoft\\Apple getting rid of the back end Windows\\OS X in these slate devices just because people expect it to look like an iPhone seems to me like throwing out the baby with the bath water.

Apple hasn't and won't get rid of the OS X back end though-- it's there on the iPhone, it'll be there on the slate. What won't be there is any aspect of a desktop environment that doesn't make sense, and that's likely to be the point of differentiation between what Apple and MS's approach. MS will be content to make some of the Windows UI elements touchable instead of clickable, maybe put a flashy animation or home screen on it, and call it a day. Apple's going to make an integrated device, every aspect of which will be tailored to that particular form factor.

Quote:
IMO it's risky to go for the "iPhone with big screen". In a way Apple have made the iPhone too good. Basic email, contacts, appointments, web browsing on-the-go... people have iPhone's to do that.

There's no chance of that happening. People may call it that, because the UI may look more like the iPhone than desktop OS X, but the software will be designed to work with the size and power of that particular device.

Quote:
If 6 months go by and Microsoft release a Windows 7 front end UI for slate devices meaning they can have all the pretty stuff as well as replace your netbook... "iPhone with big screen" for $799 just doesn't seem like the best deal.

Personally I'm hoping for OS X with a pretty new UI. If not then I wait to see what Microsoft comes up with.

Again, it goes far deeper than "pretty stuff." MS has been doing tablets for years. They seem to have figured out that limiting them to styli isn't going to cut it, I suspect that means little more than making targets a little bigger. At heart, it'll still be a desktop OS with touching replacing clicking. MS is too invested in the brand of Windows to do much more. Apple doesn't have that problem-- they're not in the OS X business, they're in the whole widget business.

If you think what a slate needs is a desktop OS with "pretty", you may have not thought very hard about how you might actually use such a device.
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post #213 of 227
Rob Enderle has Spoken

"HP Blindsides Apple

At the Microsoft keynote, an HP-branded slate product was showcased which looked a great deal like what many think the Apple tablet will look like.

However, unlike the Apple tablet, which is rumored to be running the limited iPhone OS, HP's (NYSE: HPQ) tablet runs Windows 7. Granted, both devices are more imagination than reality at the moment, but HP's product could actually launch before Apple's."
post #214 of 227
The problem with the slate device Ballmer introduced last week is that it runs Windows. That's why people aren't impressed.
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post #215 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot View Post

Rob Enderle has Spoken

"HP Blindsides Apple

At the Microsoft keynote, an HP-branded slate product was showcased which looked a great deal like what many think the Apple tablet will look like.

However, unlike the Apple tablet, which is rumored to be running the limited iPhone OS, HP's (NYSE: HPQ) tablet runs Windows 7. Granted, both devices are more imagination than reality at the moment, but HP's product could actually launch before Apple's."

How can a prototype or set of prototypes, that is shipping "sometime in the year" blindside something that nobody even knows if it is coming out or not?

It's like the I'm a Mac vs PC ads, except with ghosts.
post #216 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by icyfog View Post

The problem with the slate device Ballmer introduced last week is that it runs Windows. That's why people aren't impressed.

I think maybe Windows is okay, but AFAIK there was no significantly-demonstrated "Touch UI/ Slate UI" layer running on top of that, right? It was just like a netbook with the screen only.
post #217 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

It's like the I'm a Mac vs PC ads, except with ghosts.

Microsoft's "Courier" also has it's fans. And so far, that is just a cartoon of a prototype!
post #218 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by John the Geek View Post

Or it could just be the word for a tablet that has no keyboard. Slate computers have been around for years. They just always used a stylus until now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smiles77 View Post

I have to say, this is sad.
I guess all those courier fans on the other thread have to fess up.
Microsoft blew it.
Bye-bye, so-called "new, innovative Microsoft"

More of the same.

You would think with MS deep pockets that they could produce the courier, making it their own hardwar and not oem. Time for MS to stop thinking like engineers and IBM and release something like the courier that would probably do well in education and business and if they had 100% control meaning no OEM, they could build better products. They need more creativity or allow those that have the idea, to put them out. I mean songsmith. Case closed. They have too much money to be releasing things like that.
post #219 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

If you think what a slate needs is a desktop OS with "pretty", you may have not thought very hard about how you might actually use such a device.

I'm just caught up in all the hype. Unless Apple decide to remove the app store restrictions what you describe is a niche device to consume iTunes content (like Apple TV), not something that would appeal to the mass market.





Quote:
Originally Posted by Avidfcp View Post

You would think with MS deep pockets that they could produce the courier, making it their own hardwar and not oem. Time for MS to stop thinking like engineers and IBM and release something like the courier that would probably do well in education and business and if they had 100% control meaning no OEM, they could build better products. They need more creativity or allow those that have the idea, to put them out. I mean songsmith. Case closed. They have too much money to be releasing things like that.

It would probably be running Windows 7 which would just get them another anti-trust case. It sounds pretty stupid but we are talking about the same regulatory bodies that don't think a web browser or a media player are part of an OS experience.
post #220 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

I'm just caught up in all the hype. Unless Apple decide to remove the app store restrictions what you describe is a niche device to consume iTunes content (like Apple TV), not something that would appeal to the mass market.

Maybe you're right, but to me your comment reminds me of Steve Ballmer's of the iPhone.
"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance."
Given Apple's recent track record, I wouldn't bet against Apple.
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post #221 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by icyfog View Post

Maybe you're right, but to me your comment reminds me of Steve Ballmer's of the iPhone. "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance." Given Apple's recent track record, I wouldn't bet against Apple.

I don't see the similarity because they are two totally different markets. What is the iPhone market share anyway? I thought it was something like 2-3%. Have the 2009 numbers been released yet?

Apple's track record is to produce an absolutely perfect product for a niche market. The iPod is actually something of an anomaly. The iPhone is still too early to call I think unless the numbers have changed dramatically in 2009.
post #222 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

What is the iPhone market share anyway? I thought it was something like 2-3%. Have the 2009 numbers been released yet?

It's tiny. But it is enough to make Apple the most profitable cellphone manufacturer in the world. Passing Nokia this year.

C.
post #223 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

I don't see the similarity because they are two totally different markets. What is the iPhone market share anyway? I thought it was something like 2-3%. Have the 2009 numbers been released yet?

Apple's track record is to produce an absolutely perfect product for a niche market.

For the last quarter, iPhone had a 17% share of the smartphone market. That's the market that counts. That's the market that Balmer was talking about.

Total smartphones this year... about 160 million. That's no longer a niche.
post #224 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot View Post

For the last quarter, iPhone had a 17% share of the smartphone market. That's the market that counts. That's the market that Balmer was talking about.

Total smartphones this year... about 160 million. That's no longer a niche.

So 17% of the smart phone market which is 14% of the mobile market is around 2-3% of the total market. That's a narrow demographic niche product.

Like I said though, I see the iPhone as a totally different product to the slate being described by most people here. The iPhone certainly has the potential to be main stream given a cheaper price tag.

When Balmer made that comment he wasn't talking about the smartphone market. He was talking about the entire mobile phone market. He even specifically mentions the total mobile sales.

So what he said is (so far) totally true. The iPhone doesn't have any kind of "significant" market share. I quote "significant" because although he was talking about sales numbers one could argue that a share of the profit is more important to a business than a share of the sales.

Of course, I've got no idea what his point was - Balmer on his best day is totally insane. As Carniphage mentioned above Apple are making a massive profit off that small market segment whilst Microsoft is making nothing (I'd suggest Windows Mobile may even be losing money).

So for him to suggest he'd rather have a large market share rather than a small one like Apple, whilst he has virtually none, doesn't make any sense at all.

In any case I still see the iPhone\\iPod market as being different to the slate market. One is main stream (or potentially so) and the other will always have a limited demographic.

It's not like I see that as being a bad thing. Targeting a product to a specific audience means it can be designed to be more ideally suited to their needs. A Ferrari is a narrow demographic niche product.
post #225 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

So 17% of the smart phone market which is 14% of the mobile market is around 2-3% of the total market. That's a narrow demographic niche product.

Like I said though, I see the iPhone as a totally different product to the slate being described by most people here. The iPhone certainly has the potential to be main stream given a cheaper price tag...

...So what he said is (so far) totally true. The iPhone doesn't have any kind of "significant" market share. I quote "significant" because although he was talking about sales numbers one could argue that a share of the profit is more important to a business than a share of the sales...

...In any case I still see the iPhone\\iPod market as being different to the slate market. One is main stream (or potentially so) and the other will always have a limited demographic.

It's not like I see that as being a bad thing. Targeting a product to a specific audience means it can be designed to be more ideally suited to their needs. A Ferrari is a narrow demographic niche product.

I generally agree with you, it's how Apple rolls. They are experiencing growth, and good sales and profits of their products, organised around a strong vision. If Apple grows and diversifies any faster than it is doing, I'd be concerned as a user or if I was a shareholder.

I was just plugging in my Logitech wired mouse and Microsoft wireless keyboard with a simple USB hub into my PC, and Windows 7 kept popping up with "Installing driver" then "Not found" then if I plugged the hub into a different USB port on my PC both won't respond.

Apple is in a totally different "zone", shall we say.

The Apple Tablet is not going to be as huge as the iPhone simply because of the number of people that use mobile phones (ie., almost everyone).

But it will be a driver of brand mindshare, sexiness, halo effect, whatever.

I think about 10-20 million units a year, and rounds out the Apple offerings for 2010.
post #226 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

So 17% of the smart phone market which is 14% of the mobile market is around 2-3% of the total market. That's a narrow demographic niche product.

Hello? Is this thing on?
I repeat.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniphage

Apple is now the most profitable cellphone manufacturer in the world. Passing Nokia this year.

That is the kind of narrow demographic niche market that all businesses want to be in.

C.
post #227 of 227
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniphage View Post

Hello? Is this thing on?
I repeat.
That is the kind of narrow demographic niche market that all businesses want to be in.
C.


Hello? Is this thing on?

I repeat.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

...although he was talking about sales numbers one could argue that a share of the profit is more important to a business than a share of the sales.

I've never said being in a narrow demographic niche market is bad thing.

http://www.chillpill.com/takeoneortwo.php

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