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Piper raises Apple price target to $279, forecasts 3.1M Mac sales

post #1 of 20
Thread Starter 
A strong holiday quarter, higher than expected Mac sales, and hype leading up to Apple's expected tablet unveiling next week are all expected to drive the company's stock to new heights, one Wall Street analyst said Monday.

Calling 2010 "The Year of the Mac," Gene Munster, senior research analyst with Piper Jaffray, said domestic Mac retail data from the NPD group for the December quarter shows 26 percent year-over-year growth. Wall Street expects Apple to see about 19 percent growth over the three-month frame.

Mac unit growth in 2009 was consistently above 20 percent. Wall Street still expects Apple to see growth at about 14 percent in the 2010 calendar year, but Munster believes those estimates will rise once Apple reports its first financial quarter of 2010 next Monday.

"Keep in mind, before the economic slowdown began Mac units were up 30-40% (year over year) on a quarterly basis," he wrote in a note to investors Tuesday. "While hype surrounding the expected tablet will be focus of Apple long-term strategy, we believe we will see meaningful near-term upside from the Mac business."

While Munster had previously forecast sales of 2.9 million Macs in the December quarter, Monday he raised that estimate to 3.1 million. If that holds accurate, it would be Apple's best quarter ever. In the previous three-month frame, the Cupertino, Calif., company sold a record 3.05 million Macs.

He also continues to expect Apple to have sold 9.3 million iPhones in the December quarter, a total bolstered by new debuts in important international markets, including China, Canada and the U.K. Wall Street consensus forecasts 9.1 million iPhone sales for the holiday quarter.

On Monday, Apple formally announced its anticipated media event on Jan. 27. It is expected that the company will introduce its long-rumored touchscreen tablet device next week. With buzz around the device remaining high, Munster said all of the attention should move Apple shares higher.

"We believe Apple will show a 10-inch tablet device and possibly a new version of iPhone software," he said. "We continue to believe Apple will ship a tablet by the end of March, and will likely sell about 2M units in the first calendar year of sales. The tablet is not included in our model."



Through the end of 2010, Munster has forecast 1.4 million tablet sales at an average selling price of $600.

Piper Jaffray has slightly increased its price target for AAPL stock, from $277 to $279. Since the tablet is not in the firm's current models, that total could change depending on the outcome of next week's product announcement.
post #2 of 20
Should be interesting come next week
post #3 of 20
I’m still holding at 3.12M Macs for the quarter.

From 18-NOV-2009…
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Mac sales in millions…

» Q4-2008 — 2.61 (White MB starts at $1,099, Al MB doesn’t exist yet; 21% increase YoY from Q4-2007)) *
» Q1-2009 — 2.52 (White MB starts at $999 ($100 drop), Al MB starts at $1,299; 09% increase YoY from Q1-2008) **
» Q4-2009 — 3.05 (White MB starts at $999 with new case, Al MBP starts at $1,199 ($100 drop); 17% increase YoY from Q4-2008)
* http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2008/10/21results.html
** http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2009/01/21results.html
http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2009/10/19results.html
With new MB and iMacs that just came out, new lower priced MBPs over last year, SL on Macs, a recession that is over is some regards and, actually, Windows7 helping spur the PC market in general the way the iPhone helped smartphone sales in general will all help Apple do a 25% increase in YoY unit sales, hence selling 3.12M units.
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #4 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Im still holding at 3.12M Macs for the quarter.

From 18-NOV-2009

Why bother raising a target less then 1%? Really, making a big deal of raising by $2 on a $200+ stock?
post #5 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisRankin View Post

Why bother raising a target less then 1%? Really, making a big deal of raising by $2 on a $200+ stock?

¿Que? Where did I raise my target less than 1%?
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #6 of 20
Given Munster's expectations in terms of units of Macs, iPods, and iPhones, it seems that his revenue and EPS are really low. So he must be thinking that ASPs have dropped or that margins have dropped. Or he's just lowballing so that the stock doesn't sink after earnings are announced.

I'm predicting 3.1m Macs, 20m iPods, and 11m iPhones. Mac ASP of $1270 (down from $1294) and iPod ASP of $162 (up from $154). Gross margin of 36%. Total GAAP rev of $12.5B, GAP EPS of $2.30. And I still think I'm on the low side.
"you will know the truth, and the truth will
set you free."
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"you will know the truth, and the truth will
set you free."
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post #7 of 20
Hmm. At current growth rates...we could see Apple at 4 million Macs per quarter in the near future. That is more than they used to sell in a whole year!

That's 16 million Macs per year...and heading towards 20 million. In four years, Apple could be heading towards an installed base of 100 million Mac users. At current sales levels...surely Apple have more than an installed base of 25 million Mac users by now? Shouldn't they be close to 40? 50 million users by now?

That's alot.

You know, for a company that specializes in the video-graphics market, you'd think that they would offer top-of-the-line GPUs...

 

WITH THE NEW MAC PRO THEY FINALLY DID!  (But you bend over for it.)

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You know, for a company that specializes in the video-graphics market, you'd think that they would offer top-of-the-line GPUs...

 

WITH THE NEW MAC PRO THEY FINALLY DID!  (But you bend over for it.)

Reply
post #8 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by zindako View Post

Should be interesting come next week

AAPL stockholders are finding it interesting right now.

Shares are up 2.75% right now. Loving it!
post #9 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

AAPL stockholders are finding it interesting right now.

Shares are up 2.75% right now. Loving it!

You don't want to get too excited about what a stock does on any given day. It was down by nearly as much on Friday. The next couple of weeks is going to be a roller-coaster for AAPL investors.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #10 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

You don't want to get too excited about what a stock does on any given day. It was down by nearly as much on Friday. The next couple of weeks is going to be a roller-coaster for AAPL investors.

Up on rumor
Down on news (no matter how good)

you get used to it with apple
post #11 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamIIGS View Post

Up on rumor
Down on news (no matter how good)

you get used to it with apple

Except that you can't often distinguish the rumors from the news on any stock, even less so with AAPL than others. As for it always going down on good news, no matter how good -- this simply is not true. The last quarterly results produced a big bounce. The basic rule of thumb that seems to hold is they have to beat consensus earnings by at least 10%, or the stock will drop.

Anyway, you do get used to it, sort of. I'm in my 13th year as an AAPL stockholder -- the way I've gotten used to it is to not look at the price every day.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #12 of 20
13th year nice, I bought a few days before MSFT and APPL announced the 400mm settlement / investment at Macworld in the old "apple will be out of business in 6 months" days. ;-) Sadly I only had enough for 110 shares but it's turned around quite nicely for me.

You know it's interesting that most people don't understand a huge part of that "investment" and promise to keep producing Office for the Mac was as much to keep the Feds off MSFTs back.
post #13 of 20
My man Gene!
post #14 of 20
No doubt it will keep climbing. Malware still plagues Windows quite heavily. I'm pained with helping my relatives. If Apple gets too popular then the malware writers will turn their attentions to it. We'll see if Apple can stave off their attacks.
post #15 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamIIGS View Post

13th year nice, I bought a few days before MSFT and APPL announced the 400mm settlement / investment at Macworld in the old "apple will be out of business in 6 months" days. ;-) Sadly I only had enough for 110 shares but it's turned around quite nicely for me.

You know it's interesting that most people don't understand a huge part of that "investment" and promise to keep producing Office for the Mac was as much to keep the Feds off MSFTs back.

The 1997 deal was in settlement of a long-running patent dispute. Nothing to do with the Feds, really. As for the continued development of Office, I think this was also window dressing. Microsoft was already nearly finished with Office '98 when the deal was announced. So at most, it bought one more version of Office (Office X in 2001), which Microsoft might very well have done anyway. It was a PR coup though, which was the real point.

I bought in twice in 1997 (and some later which has already been sold). That initial investment has turned into the Dr Millmoss Might Actually Get to Retire Someday Fund.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #16 of 20
Hah, as a Linux user I'm weary of anything being called the year of anything
post #17 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisRankin View Post

Why bother raising a target less then 1%? Really, making a big deal of raising by $2 on a $200+ stock?

I think basically he's just reiterating his prior call, raising the Mac volume forecast a little bit, and reminding people that the iSlate is not included in his forecast. Not much news there as much as, "Hey guys, I want my voice to be heard too, in this din!"

All else is perhaps AI's interpretation!
post #18 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

You don't want to get too excited about what a stock does on any given day. It was down by nearly as much on Friday. The next couple of weeks is going to be a roller-coaster for AAPL investors.

True enough, but Apple lost 3.5 points on Friday and has gained over 8.5 points today.
post #19 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Silencio View Post

True enough, but Apple lost 3.5 points on Friday and has gained over 8.5 points today.

... taking us almost back to where we were two weeks ago. I'll be more interested to see where we stand in a couple of weeks, after the earnings report and after the big show next week, and after the dust settles from both.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #20 of 20
Related article for 2010:

2010 - What's in store for the Mac?

Estimate given of 3.15 to 3.27 million Macs for the quarter.

7. Mac shipments will reach new records
Apple sold a record 3.053 million Macs during the company's 2009 fiscal fourth quarter (July, August, September). This represents a near 17 percent increase over the comparable 2008 quarter when Apple sold 2.61 million Macs. See the image below for Mac shipments over the past four years (sixteen quarters). Apple just completed it's 2010 fiscal first quarter (October, November, December) and will be releasing earnings in a few weeks. I expect the number of Macs shipped to be in the 3.15 to 3.27 million range. Regardless of the exact number, the three million Mac unit floor has been set and Apple is positioned to set new quarterly and yearly Mac shipment records in 2010.
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