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'Minor issues' could result in June launch for $999 Apple tablet - report

post #1 of 110
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While Apple's tablet is still expected to see a formal introduction at a media event next week, issues with battery life and durability could result in a June launch, an analyst said Tuesday.

In a new note to investors, Shaw Wu with Kaufman Bros. said checks with supply chain sources indicate the launch pattern for the tablet could follow that of the original iPhone in 2007, with a January unveiling and final product shipping to consumers six months later. He said that the June launch could be due to "minor issues" with more work needed on battery life and durability.

However, he said, checks also indicate that a tablet-type device will be introduced next week, at a Jan. 27 event, where the company has advertised it plans to show off its "latest creation." Wu described the product as being like a "super" iPod touch.

"This tablet product has been described to us as a hybrid between an iPhone/ipod touch and a mac but in terms of software and components, it appears closer to the former, meaning it is most likely ARM based," he wrote. "From our understanding, it is not intended to replace a Mac but be somewhat of a 'super' iPod touch where video, gaming, Web browsing, e-books and the ability to run multiple apps would be enhanced with the much larger screen."

The analyst's claims of a June launch contradict with The Wall Street Journal, which reported earlier this month that the hardware is expected to ship in March. The device is expected to have a screen sized between 10 inches and 11 inches.

Wu also expects the device to cost around $999, citing a $100 incremental cost for a large touchscreen, according to sources in the supply chain. In addition, additional costs over the iPhone and iPod touch would come in the form of semiconductors, glass, sensors and substrates.

That estimate comes in much higher than competing analyst Gene Munster, of Piper Jaffray, who has predicted a $600 average selling price. In general, analysts expect the device to cost less than $1,000.

Wu said he believes that Wi-Fi would be the "most likely option" for network access, as opposed to 3G, so as to "not further clog already strained 3G networks." But, he said, there is still the potential for carriers to offer subsidies and lower the price point of the device for end users. He said Wi-Fi is the best option to offer broad and inexpensive high-speed Internet access.

Kaufman Bros. has predicted the "iSlate," as Wu referred to it, to sell a million units per quarter. Supply chain sources indicated that Apple hopes to build 5 million units in the first year of production. The company has reiterated its price target of $253 for AAPL stock.
post #2 of 110
Do people actually get paid to write such drivel? So we analyze rumors now. Nice work if you can get it.
post #3 of 110
I want the 111 inch model.

edit: dammit, too quick.
post #4 of 110
I'm not buying a tablet for $999.00, sorry, but I will wait till the price drops to half in two years.
post #5 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by zindako View Post

I'm not buying a tablet for $999.00, sorry, but I will wait till the price drops to half in two years.

Wu is "Wu-seless", he has to be one of the worst analysts covering apple, he has a terrible track record, so this is good for us.

Secondly, I don't think apple will have a problem selling the merchandise you pass on because of price, I don't think there will be ONE tablet sitting around because you didn't buy it.

Sorry that sounds snarky and isn't meant to be, lol.
post #6 of 110
Are you folks trying to tell me that Apple is going to release a touchscreen tablet-style computer? Really?

How the heck did those guys keep this a secret until now?
post #7 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamIIGS View Post

Wu is "Wu-seless", he has to be one of the worst analysts covering apple, he has a terrible track record, so this is good for us.

Secondly, I don't think apple will have a problem selling the merchandise you pass on because of price, I don't think there will be ONE tablet sitting around because you didn't buy it.

Sorry that sounds snarky and isn't meant to be, lol.

The problem with that statement is that you were talking to an Apple fan making that statement. If these kind of people aren't interested, who will be? In the middle of a recession people don't usually splurge $1000 on a "super iPod touch".

You can always justify a phone and a computer however. This thing could conceivably be just a toy which many cannot justify.
post #8 of 110
I'd just worry such a long release time frame (if this were true) gives the copycats a long time to come up with 'kind of looks like on the surface' copies that fool the technologically challenged into thinking the soon to be released Dell MyPad etc. are just as good. I love to see Apple make them available asap for that reason as well as wanting one . The price of $999 for what this seems to be... say compared with the 60 GIG iPod launch price for an MP3 player ... about right to me.
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post #9 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by zindako View Post

I'm not buying a tablet for $999.00, sorry, but I will wait till the price drops to half in two years.

£599 (64GB) up to £799 (128 SSD). Given we always get ripped off in the UK due to a slight malfunctioning of the currency converter, i reckon it'll come to you from $899.

There Wu go my 2pence or 2c worth.
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post #10 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by RCO3 View Post

Are you folks trying to tell me that Apple is going to release a touchscreen tablet-style computer? Really?

How the heck did those guys keep this a secret until now?

Very nice!
post #11 of 110
Total guesswork of the worst kind... 100% wrong!

"Checks indicate that a tablet-type device will be introduced next week, at a Jan. 27 event."
Wu needed his supply chain source to tell him that? It's front page news, moron!

This tablet product has been described to us as a hybrid between an iPhone/ipod touch and a mac but in terms of software and components, it appears closer to the former, meaning it is most likely ARM based," he wrote. "From our understanding, it is not intended to replace a Mac but be somewhat of a 'super' iPod touch where video, gaming, Web browsing, e-books and the ability to run multiple apps would be enhanced with the much larger screen."
Nothing like covering all your bases, Wu. Even a broken clock is right twice a day! Is Wu's "supply chain" source privy to AAPL's subscription model which will prove to be the Slate's raison de tre? I think not.
post #12 of 110
My only real concern with this thing is the price.

I have know doubt that it will rock the world.

All these damn analysts have "sources".

And any source from the far east have damn near zero credibility.

Can't be hard to become an analyst.

I can talk out my ass.

Yes I can!
post #13 of 110
Shaw Wu has the worst record of any analyst in the industry. His predictions are worth betting AGAINST.
post #14 of 110
Well, its certainly not Intel based. I will bet the farm (not much of a farm but hey!) that it does not have an Intel processor.

Probably some form of ARM. Could be a PA Semi designed part though not sure if Apple would specifically say that. They do not get too technical on whats inside, just basics.
post #15 of 110
$999 is the same price as a MacBook. A $999 iSlate seems very poor value in comparison.
post #16 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lenberg View Post

His predictions are worth betting AGAINST.

Bite your tongue: not the $253 forecast!
post #17 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lenberg View Post

Shaw Wu has the worst record of any analyst in the industry. His predictions are worth betting AGAINST.

His short hedge fund friends probably asked him to say something negative. And, he did. Hey, the guy has got to make a living.
post #18 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamIIGS View Post

Secondly, I don't think apple will have a problem selling the merchandise you pass on because of price

I agree. The fanbois will be lined up in the predawn hours to get one, price be damned.
post #19 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamIIGS View Post

Wu is "Wu-seless", he has to be one of the worst analysts covering apple, he has a terrible track record, so this is good for us.

Secondly, I don't think apple will have a problem selling the merchandise you pass on because of price, I don't think there will be ONE tablet sitting around because you didn't buy it.

Sorry that sounds snarky and isn't meant to be, lol.

can't wait...
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post #20 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orlando View Post

$999 is the same price as a MacBook. A $999 iSlate seems very poor value in comparison.

How can you judge the value of something that doesn't exist? IMHO Apple isn't going to release a new computing platform that was so low in value that they couldn't sell it for a 100% mark-up during the initial hype. So will parts really be cheap enough to do that below the $1000 price point? In the past Apple has generally erred on the side of too expensive then dropped the prices if necessary.

On the other hand... maybe Apple should just auction off each and every MacSlate for the first quarter and see what the market values it at.
post #21 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by zindako View Post

I'm not buying a tablet for $999.00, sorry, but I will wait till the price drops to half in two years.

Unless it is significantly less than a MacBook I can't buy it.
post #22 of 110
This device would fail very badly at $999. It's a non-essential purchase. It needs to be priced like a semi-impulse-buy item. Here is a Lenovo 10" capacitive tablet with Atom, 160GB HDD, 1GB RAM, 802.11n for $549:

http://www.logicbuy.com/deals/lenovo...let/18177.aspx

We're already near double the price of a netbook at this point.

If Apple go with ARM, they save money, especially if there's common inventory with the mobiles. They will get good deals on displays due to the orders they will place.

The 64GB ipod touch is $399. Take the same kind of internals and use it with the display from the Lenovo and you get $499-599 (£349-399). Same price as an unsubsidized iphone and the original price of the modern consoles.
post #23 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booga View Post

How can you judge the value of something that doesn't exist? IMHO Apple isn't going to release a new computing platform that was so low in value that they couldn't sell it for a 100% mark-up during the initial hype. So will parts really be cheap enough to do that below the $1000 price point? In the past Apple has generally erred on the side of too expensive then dropped the prices if necessary.

On the other hand... maybe Apple should just auction off each and every MacSlate for the first quarter and see what the market values it at.

How can we judge the value of something that doesn't exist? Easy!

This situation is similar to a developer trying to sell luxury vacation homes that have yet to be built. Sure, the lake and mountains are beautiful, but we're talking about vacation homes, not primary residencies. Unless they're priced low enough, it matters little how great the property is. People first have to live, and then, only when cheap enough will they even consider a vacation home.

This seems like a fitting analogy because tablets aren't suited to be the primary/sole computer for the vast majority of users. Instead they'll need to be priced cheap enough to be an auxiliary device... a vacation home.
post #24 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by zindako View Post

I'm not buying a tablet for $999.00, sorry, but I will wait till the price drops to half in two years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by str1f3 View Post

The problem with that statement is that you were talking to an Apple fan making that statement. If these kind of people aren't interested, who will be? In the middle of a recession people don't usually splurge $1000 on a "super iPod touch".

You can always justify a phone and a computer however. This thing could conceivably be just a toy which many cannot justify.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Orlando View Post

$999 is the same price as a MacBook. A $999 iSlate seems very poor value in comparison.

And it might cost $2000 and be a really, really terrible value. Or it might cost $500 and be a steal. Or it might cost $2000 and be a dumbfounding, genre changing miracle machine and be worth every penny. Or it might cost $500 and not do very much at all and be a waste of money.

I have no problem with anyone speculating about price and utility. But it seems pretty pointless characterize such speculations as a bad value or undesirable or an ill considered move on Apple's part, as if they had actually released something or we knew anything. Because they haven't and we don't.
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post #25 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamIIGS View Post

Wu is "Wu-seless", he has to be one of the worst analysts covering apple, he has a terrible track record, so this is good for us.

Secondly, I don't think apple will have a problem selling the merchandise you pass on because of price, I don't think there will be ONE tablet sitting around because you didn't buy it.

Sorry that sounds snarky and isn't meant to be, lol.

I agree that Wu is not too sharp. His price target is way off in my opinion.

I have to agree with the other poster saying he wouldn't buy it at $1000. Don't you think most people (other than the "I have to have it today" crowd) will have a hard time spending the same amount as they would for a MacBook? Especially in this economy? Most people in this forum will buy it because they fall into the early adopters crowd. But the masses are not going to spend that much on a luxury device. Apple knows this and would not make it if that was the lowest price they could bring it down to. Personally, I think $600 is on the high side. But, judging by the estimated manufacturing costs, it sounds right.

There is the possibility that they may price it lower, say around $399 and subsidize it with revenue they get from deals they make with content providers.

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post #26 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

And it might cost $2000 and be a really, really terrible value. Or it might cost $500 and be a steal. Or it might cost $2000 and be a dumbfounding, genre changing miracle machine and be worth every penny. Or it might cost $500 and not do very much at all and be a waste of money.

I have no problem with anyone speculating about price and utility. But it seems pretty pointless characterize such speculations as a bad value or undesirable or an ill considered move on Apple's part, as if they had actually released something or we knew anything. Because they haven't and we don't.

Isn't that speculation exactly what this forum is for? If not, I'm honestly confused as to what we're all doing here.

I vote, carry on. Continue discussing rumored feature lists and pricing.
post #27 of 110
If we assume that MacSurfer is mostly read by Apple fanatics then the results of their tablet pricing poll indicate that a strong majority of people craving an Apple tablet think US$999 is too much to pay for one.

Until I've seen one I won't be able to say how much it would be worth to me, but it'll have to be off the charts amazing and incredibly useful before I'll be able to justify a thousand bucks.
post #28 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by dfiler View Post

Isn't that speculation exactly what this forum is for? If not, I'm honestly confused as to what we're all doing here.

I vote, carry on. Continue discussing rumored feature lists and pricing.

I agree with you - this is an Apple rumour site, so speculation is to be expected.

In my opinion, if it is $1000 and is a "Super iPod Touch" it'll be hard to justify, since I think a Macbook would be better value. Unless they have come out with some stellar improvements in terms of interacting with a product without a keyboard (and as this is Apple, I wouldn't rule that out), it would be hard to pick a mobile computing device without a keyboard over one with a full sized keyboard (I think that argument is different when you are competing with a non-full sized keyboard - i.e. iPhone can compete vs. Blackberry).
post #29 of 110
$999.

No sale.
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post #30 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by techno View Post

I agree that Wu is not too sharp. His price target is way off in my opinion.

I have to agree with the other poster saying he wouldn't buy it at $1000. Don't you think most people (other than the "I have to have it today" crowd) will have a hard time spending the same amount as they would for a MacBook? Especially in this economy? Most people in this forum will buy it because they fall into the early adopters crowd. But the masses are not going to spend that much on a luxury device. Apple knows this and would not make it if that was the lowest price they could bring it down to. Personally, I think $600 is on the high side. But, judging by the estimated manufacturing costs, it sounds right.

There is the possibility that they may price it lower, say around $399 and subsidize it with revenue they get from deals they make with content providers.

Keep in mind that this thing is going to be $500.
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post #31 of 110
I won't be a buyer at $1000. It should be $200 more than the top end iPod Touch. A second model with double the memory, GPS, mic, and front facing camra should be $200 more, putting the price at $599 and $799 respectively.

They should come with a USB expansion slot designed to hold a 3G USB modem from any wireless carrier who wants to sell 3G service for the device. The 3g carriers would sell the USB modem free with a data plan.

I certainly hope the iPod Touch gets upgraded to have GPS, mic, and camera (same quality as in the iPhone) and the iPod Slate has these as well (with the camera being front facing to support Chat) even the entry level model, but it is important to hit a $599 price point if they want to sell millions of these.
post #32 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by iGenius View Post

I agree. The fanbois will be lined up in the predawn hours to get one, price be damned.

Which Apple products, priced higher than the same thing from competitors, have caused early lines to form on launch day?

Im not sure you have your facts right
post #33 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by str1f3 View Post

? In the middle of a recession people don't usually splurge $1000 on a "super iPod touch".

recession was over 4 months ago

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ber...ver-2009-09-15
post #34 of 110
It is either a $599 iBook (larger iPod Touch with light word processing and other advanced features)
-or-
A $999 MacBook (the revolutionary laptop replacement with features and purposes known only to Jobs)
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post #35 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smiles77 View Post

It is either a $599 iBook (larger iPod Touch with light word processing and other advanced features)
-or-
A $999 MacBook (the revolutionary laptop replacement with features and purposes known only to Jobs)

I think you hit it right on the head with this. In most cases it seems that this device is going to be nothing but a toy to most. I want one, simply put, because I'm an apple fanatic and I think it is going to be freakin' sweet. BUT, I already have a mac mini that I use as my main computer and a laptop that I use primarily for work...

now of course I want to get one of these tablets, but it would be used mostly in travelling and sitting on the couch while I'm watching TV doing some casual browsing.

If it cost $1k, I cannot convince myself that spending that much money is worth it just to sit on the couch and play with some fancy toy... This would fit well for someone that is looking for a netbook and doesn't already have one, but at $1k they might as well buy a macbook and get better use out of it... then again that is without knowing what this thing is actually going to be able to do

long story short, the conscious buyer will not be looking to purchase in March OR June at a 1k price
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post #36 of 110
I'm in the market for a device with the disadvantages of an iPod Touch but without the advantages of a Macbook. Only $1000!!! Can't wait!!

Instead of an iPod Touch on steroids, they need a Macbook Air on barbituates.
post #37 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmf2 View Post

Keep in mind that this thing is going to be $500.

That's only because they stole their IP from the original inventor. And since they're getting sued over it, you'd have to be a little daft to "pre-order" one at that price. The price is so low because any buyer is assuming a great deal of risk by putting money down for one. The same is rarely true of Apple products.
post #38 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post

recession was over 4 months ago

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ber...ver-2009-09-15

Try telling that to the people still losing their jobs.
post #39 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lenberg View Post

Shaw Wu has the worst record of any analyst in the industry. His predictions are worth betting AGAINST.

Agreed. We have no idea whether the Apple tablet device will be subsidized by a cellphone carrier or not, and we don't know for sure when it'll be released. So let's look at the two release time possibilities and ignore pricing. Either way, the tablet and smartphone markets will need to wait and react to whatever Apple does.

If the Apple tablet device is released in March, it will provide only 2 months for Apple to build up market hype. After two months, when the device is released, people who took a 'wait and see' approach will decide for or against purchasing the Apple device. In those two months, there will be fewer sales of all other tablets because many people will want to physically try it out before buying it or a competitor's product.

Of course, iPhone 4.0 will probably be very closely related (if not identical) to the Apple tablet device's OS. So announcing iPhone OS 4.0 in January, making it available relatively soon, then releasing the 4th generation iPhone handset in June would continue with Apple's iPhone release pattern. And it would put the hurt on Nexus One, Droid, and any potential vaporware Zune Phone. Older iPhones would benefit from the new features (advanced multi-touch gestures, for example) and it would keep iPhone in the news for months until the 4th generation handset is released.

On the other hand, if the Apple tablet device's release is delayed until June, it could be even more beneficial to Apple. By delaying the release by a few more months, it hurts the tablet competitors even more. Instead of a 2 month lull in sales for, say, the HP Slate, there will be a 5 month lull in sales. People will still probably want to wait and try out the Apple device for themselves before making a decision. So, by announcing now and releasing 5 months later, Apple builds hype, gains mindshare, hurts the competition's sales, and benefits from more testing and development time.

In addition, by releasing the hardware this summer, Apple could time its release to coincide with WWDC. This is Apple's last real "trade show" and it always generates huge media coverage. And of course, the more time you give developers to create software for your brand new platform, the more apps you'll have for it. In the months leading up to WWDC, more and more developers would be able to announce tablet-enabled versions of their software, building the hype even more.

iPhone didn't even get "official" native apps until a year after its release, when the App Store opened. I think the tablet will need as many Apple and 3rd party apps as possible when it is released. Not just e-books and HTML5 versions of the New York Times.

As for the iPhone, I'm sure its hardware and software specs are finalized by now. So if the tablet takes the iPhone's normal summer release slot, the iPhone could be released earlier than normal. This is good for Apple because it strikes back sooner than expected at whatever advantage Nexus One and Droid may have gained since the 3GS was released last summer.

And, of course, if the Apple tablet OS has a lot in common with iPhone OS 4.0 (and how could it not?) it will have some advanced multi-touch gestures that Android may never be able to copy, for various reasons. (I suspect that Google would prefer voice commands to multi-touch, to avoid lawsuits and to differentiate Android from iPhone OS.)

Either way, March or June, no matter when the Apple tablet device is released, I think Apple can benefit. If anything, I think a June launch makes more sense. It freezes potential tablet buyers in their tracks, killing competitors' sales for at least 5 months. And it allows for an earlier release of the 4th gen iPhone, to smack down competitors right now.

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post #40 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booga View Post

That's only because they stole their IP from the original inventor. And since they're getting sued over it, you'd have to be a little daft to "pre-order" one at that price. The price is so low because any buyer is assuming a great deal of risk by putting money down for one. The same is rarely true of Apple products.

I was suggesting that that price was high if people are expecting a $600 Apple tablet.

Edit: And you should add an "allegedly", that case is far from clear cut. I don't even know what to think of it. All I know is that I don't want a joojoo.
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