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Apple tablet seen nearing $3 billion business in first year

post #1 of 135
Thread Starter 
Selling an estimated 5 million units in its first year as a "base case" scenario, Apple's tablet would earn the company $2.8 billion in additional revenue and solidify it as more than a niche product, a prominent investment baking firm said Friday.

Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets, the corporate and investment banking division of the Royal Bank of Canada, has projected a $600 average selling price for Apple's forthcoming tablet. That could add 30 cents of earnings per share to the company's stock, resulting in a $5- to $10-per-share valuation upside. Another $2.8 billion in revenue would be a 6 percent increase for Apple.

Those numbers assume 30 percent gross margin for the hardware, and 3 percent Mac and iPod touch cannibalization. That's what Abramsky believes is the most likely outcome, as the midpoint in a three-case scenario.

On the low end, as a "niche" product, he said the tablet would have an $800 average selling price and sell 1 million units. That would earn Apple $777 million, and amount to 12 cents of incremental GAAP EPS.

On the other hand, priced at $500, the product would be a "hit," selling 10 million units. With 29 percent gross margin, it would mean an additional $4.2 billion in revenue for Apple, amounting to 42 cents EPS.

"Anticipation for an Apple Tablet (expected Jan 27) resembles that of Moses bringing down the 10 Commandments," Abramsky wrote. "Despite high expectations, we believe Apple plans to redefine portable computing -- as the Mac redefined the PC -- by 'creating' desire for a new converged portable device with innovative touch/gestures -- with iTunes content. A 'Hit' could provide a possible new growth engine for Apple."



He went on to say that the traditional tablet market size of a million per year is likely irrelevant. Instead, the prize for Apple's device should be seen as the 150 million home PCs expected to be sold this year. That would place the addressable market, Abramsky said, at 35 million.



RBC has predicted a device with a price between $500 and $700 unsubsidized, while it would cost between $200 and $300 subsidized by a wireless carrier. Abramsky said he believes Apple is likely to release two versions of the hardware: one with Wi-Fi only, and another with both 3G and Wi-Fi.

For pricing, Abramsky cited a recent survey by ChangeWave that found most consumers would be interested in buying a tablet priced between $500 and $799. If the device is priced closer to $1,000, he said subsidies may be needed for mass-market acceptance.

Priced appropriately, the tablet would also be Apple's opportunity to cut into the booming netbook market.

"Although the tablet would not offer the breadth of features or raw performance of traditional laptops, it would deliver an optimal experience for buyers looking for user-friendly, media-centric computing at entry-level price points," Abramsky said. "The tablet may cannibalize some Mac and iPod touch buyers (est. 2-5% in scenario analysis), but the lack of Mac OS X compatibility (and emulated Windows) reduces the appeal of the tablet as a Mac replacement for Apple's traditional premium Mac buyers."

Earlier this week, The Wall Street Journal reported that Apple sees its tablet as a device that will be shared by multiple family members. Previously, analysts with investment firm Piper Jaffray had forecast an average tablet selling price of between $600 and $800 -- higher than RBC's forecast. But this week, an analyst told AppleInsider that price point "may be a little low."

Apple is widely expected to unveil the tablet at a media event scheduled for Jan. 27 at 10 a.m. Pacific time, 1 p.m. Eastern. The event will be held at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco. Apple sent out invitations this week, inviting select members of the press to "Come see our latest creation."
post #2 of 135
$3 billion on a product no analyst has yet seen. Captain obvious says maybe they should make a few models given differing estimates. Or, just wait until they have real data. I guess they need to eat too though.
post #3 of 135
There you go again, confusing the concept of "earn" and "revenue" (yet, elsewhere in text, equate "earnings"- correctly - to profits).

No law against it, but it does not take much to say "make revenues of..." or "expected to have revenues of...." instead of "earn revenues of...."
post #4 of 135
Lots to question in this analysis. For starters, I find it difficult to believe that $600 in ASP will produce a 30% gross margin, but an 18% lower ASP ($500) will lower margins by only 1% - that must be some economies of scale that Apple is able to achieve in a very short period.

Second, how does this analysis make a judgement about how much it will add to 'GAAP earnings' without knowing whether there will be a post-paid pricing plan, which in turn would impact revenue (and hence earnings) recognition policies at Apple (as it does with the iPhone)? Or perhaps he means 'non-GAAP earnings'?
post #5 of 135
Or, it might not sell at all. I have no interest in such a device.
post #6 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

There you go again, confusing the concept of "earn" and "revenue" (yet, elsewhere in text, equate "earnings"- correctly - to profits).

No law against it, but it does not take much to say "make revenues of..." or "expected to have revenues of...." instead of "earn revenues of...."

I know the difference between earnings and revenues (in business terms) but 'earning revenues' still clearly refers to revenues. In the same way you can profit from increased revenues.
post #7 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by cwingrav View Post

$3 billion on a product no analyst has yet seen. Captain obvious says maybe they should make a few models given differing estimates. Or, just wait until they have real data. I guess they need to eat too though.

yes, very true
mr abramsky has to eat, obviously
post #8 of 135
Can you imagine the frenzy and hype the Apple marketing Geniuses (was gonna say Guru but bit my tongue) can build marketing a never before seen, must have empty cardboard box?! Man they're good!

Ten years ago, we had Steve Jobs, Bob Hope and Johnny Cash.  Today we have no Jobs, no Hope and no Cash.

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Ten years ago, we had Steve Jobs, Bob Hope and Johnny Cash.  Today we have no Jobs, no Hope and no Cash.

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post #9 of 135
I think it will be closer to 2.8 Trillion.
post #10 of 135
It's obvious they are not enthusiasts. These analysts will only be right if they happen to guess right, not because they had some sort of clue. The fact of the matter is any analyst predicting sales number at this point should be sacked. Yet AI reports this crap.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
Reply
post #11 of 135
These analysts are going to be so disappointed if Apple introduce a completely different product on Wednesday and all of this Tablet, Slate, Pad stuff has just been a smokescreen and a way of getting MS to use 'Slate' terminology.

I'm sure whatever product Apple do launch on Wednesday will be a success, simply due to the Halo effect. People with iPods, iPhones and Macs will want the next product.

Maybe a fully integrated media TV with build in internet access, Apple TV, access to the iTunes cloud, MobileMe and other services, embedded Safari, iPhotos, etc.

Maybe an iPhone 'superlite' which looks like a bluetooth headset but is a fully functional, voice activated phone / ipod shuffle / voice guidance GPS system, ...

And maybe the 'One more thing...' will be Steve laughing at MS 'Slate PCs'!

Phil
post #12 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by hillstones View Post

Or, it might not sell at all. I have no interest in such a device.

I, on the other hand, can hardly wait to get my paws on one.

- love fanboi
post #13 of 135
These estimates were obviously made with the SWAG analysis method - Systematic Wild A## Guess. Hasn't seen it, doesn't know what it does, doesn't know what it sells for ...
post #14 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by womble2k2 View Post

Maybe a fully integrated media TV with build in internet access.

This is my favorite device. It's coming too. I don't think it's ready yet though,  Television is coming in 2011, due to the complex nature of the content deals.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #15 of 135
In this perspective it's interesting to see if they are going US only to start with and if so - how soon do they go world wide. It took more than 1 year with the iPhone until many countries were added. In todays world that's forever.

All discussion are focused on US so far (publishers, carriers and so on). For many reasons (not to mention I'm not living in US this may also be a opportunity for Apple to go global. US is still their main focus, but to grow further the international perspective is important. Indeed the market becomes much bigger. But forging deals with content providers which is global (overcoming limped iTune Stores in many countries) can be a revolution in itself. And something which would carry Apple to yet another great dimension.

And as a shareholder I would like Apple to be even more global. That would also prevent some piracy, copy of their products and ease down the need to unlock. I'm not sure, but I think that quite a lot of jail breaking of the iPhone was done because a lot of non-US customers wanted the iPhone (including myself). Quite some volumes has been rumored to go to China also.

Go global ASAP! That's it!
post #16 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by tumme-totte View Post


Go global ASAP! That's it!

Yes, there is some virtue in it. But there are also downsides, when it comes to a completely new category of product (as this one is speculated to be). Pricing, distribution, exchange rates, carrier deals, content provider deals (with their attendant cross-border licensing and IP issues - remember how long it took to get just the iTMS across borders?), assessing consumer tastes, predicting demand, etc can be a huge challenge.

It is probably far better, on balance, to introduce in one country (esp. one that is large like the US and one that Apple understands well), learn form it, get down on the cost curve, and then do a global roll-out.
post #17 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by tumme-totte View Post

In this perspective it's interesting to see if they are going US only to start with and if so - how soon do they go world wide. It took more than 1 year with the iPhone until many countries were added. In todays world that's forever.

Apple's job is going to be easier this time around. They've already got carrier and content partners in a plethora of countries.

*IF* this is a connected device, I'd expect it to launch in at least 12 markets initially.
post #18 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by ulfoaf View Post

These estimates were obviously made with the SWAG analysis method - Systematic Wild A## Guess. Hasn't seen it, doesn't know what it does, doesn't know what it sells for ...

i know, it's complete bullshit
we should ask mr. abramsky if he's clairvoyant
post #19 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Projected... estimated... predicted... assume... assume... assume

Bored.

censored

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censored

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post #20 of 135
Quote:
... a prominent investment baking firm said Friday.

Mmmm... What's the beta on a dozen chocolate chip cookies? How's the Debt to Equity ratio on a cupcake?

- Jasen.
post #21 of 135
Most importantly... Will it blend!? http://www.blendtec.com/willitblend/
post #22 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by jasenj1 View Post

Most importantly... Will it blend!? http://www.blendtec.com/willitblend/

http://www.blendtec.com/willitblend/...video=iphone3g

this one is amazing
post #23 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by jasenj1 View Post

Most importantly... Will it blend!? http://www.blendtec.com/willitblend/

It might not, 10" seems a bit large. It might not fit.
post #24 of 135
[CENTER]Desperate for Stories? Need more hits?
Post Analyst reports from people who dont what the hell their talking about! [/CENTER]

Why is AI insistent on torturing us with this stupid garbage?
post #25 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by womble2k2 View Post

These analysts are going to be so disappointed if Apple introduce a completely different product on Wednesday and all of this Tablet, Slate, Pad stuff has just been a smokescreen and a way of getting MS to use 'Slate' terminology.

I'm sure whatever product Apple do launch on Wednesday will be a success, simply due to the Halo effect. People with iPods, iPhones and Macs will want the next product.

Maybe a fully integrated media TV with build in internet access, Apple TV, access to the iTunes cloud, MobileMe and other services, embedded Safari, iPhotos, etc.

Maybe an iPhone 'superlite' which looks like a bluetooth headset but is a fully functional, voice activated phone / ipod shuffle / voice guidance GPS system, ...

And maybe the 'One more thing...' will be Steve laughing at MS 'Slate PCs'!

Phil

I am all of the above in that I own an iPod, and iPhone and a MacBook. I don't know that I'll want what Apple has to offer, quite simply because they haven't offered anything yet. Not one official piece of news has come from Apple (unless they intentionally leaked something, but still not official), except, something is coming. So we'll have to wait and see.

All of this conjecture is idiotic. I'm tired of my feed readers popping up with stories about an unknown product as if everybody knows what it is!
post #26 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by ifail View Post

Why is AI insistent on torturing us with this stupid garbage?

Are you somehow being forced to come to this site due to a judges order? If not I've got a secret I wanna share with you...

[CENTER]IF YOU THINK A SITE SUCKS
DON'T VISIT!
[/CENTER]

Life is far too short to get yourself all lathered up over the content of a web site that you find so appalling. Continuing to visit said sites might be a sign that you need to seek out a mental health professional to determine the root cause of your incessant desire to mentally torture yourself. The web is filled with sites that I find very annoying but you don't see me trying to correct each and every one I come across... Instead I just move on to more enjoyable pursuits.
Apple Fanboy: Anyone who started liking Apple before I did!
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Apple Fanboy: Anyone who started liking Apple before I did!
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post #27 of 135
Deleted, didn't read the article well enough.
The key to enjoying these forums: User CP -> Edit Ignore List
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The key to enjoying these forums: User CP -> Edit Ignore List
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post #28 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by phalanx View Post

I think it will be closer to 2.8 Trillion.

Made my day! Very funny! I always appreciate the positive humor!

I saw a cartoon recently....

where the former CEO of BOA is saying to his executive staff, "A 'Billion' is a thousand million. Why wasn't I informed about this?"
post #29 of 135
Five million tablets in the first year?

Where did they pull THAT number out from? Wherever it was I sure hope they washed their hands right after...

I've tried to do some fact finding but google isn't cooperating today...

Does anyone have any source of TABLET sales data from the past 3 or 4 years... I'm thinking that 5 million units could be the combined sales for the last few years... Unless tablets have become more popular then I realized. Also my definition of tablet doesn't include one trick devices like ebook readers or PoS devices. I'm talking 'computer - sans keyboard' that runs a modern OS and is able to run many of your typical applications.
Apple Fanboy: Anyone who started liking Apple before I did!
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Apple Fanboy: Anyone who started liking Apple before I did!
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post #30 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by ifail View Post

[CENTER]Desperate for Stories? Need more hits?
Post Analyst reports from people who dont what the hell their talking about! [/CENTER]

Why is AI insistent on torturing us with this stupid garbage?

Just keep reading until the Flavor-aid is ready.
Gather around everybody!
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Gather around everybody!
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post #31 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveGee View Post

Five million tables in the first year?

What, Apple is going to sell tables?? Is that to take on the MS surface?

Phil
post #32 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by womble2k2 View Post

What, Apple is going to sell tables?? Is that to take on the MS surface?

Phil

Apple Fanboy: Anyone who started liking Apple before I did!
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Apple Fanboy: Anyone who started liking Apple before I did!
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post #33 of 135
Mr. Abramsky, your stupidity is showing.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #34 of 135
I remember one rumor saying price would be shockingly low.

If so, maybe 'we all' get one. iPod effect, to the nth.

Not unit sales and GM this time? 'Other' revenue streams, further shift in thinking.

Subsidy via content revenue. Question is... how?

(I know, Apple is a hardware company. That's what they keep saying.....)
post #35 of 135
Apple is often good at surprising us, but even if this device is everything one could hope for, it will be the secondary if not tertiary device for most people [computer(s) first, iPhone(s)/Touch(es) second], and should be priced accordingly.

And 3G needs to be optional, or at least iPhone tethering activated by AT&T, because I suspect many iPhone users will be reluctant to add another monthly data plan cost to a non-primary device. As well, owning a device like this would shift, not add, a lot of data traffic from iPhone to the tablet. Maybe the approach will be if you already have an iPhone data plan, you can activate a tablet under that plan, or for a nominal fee. If it's intrinsically linked to your name/phone number, there would be little abuse of activating a tablet for someone else to use to "double dip" on data usage.
post #36 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by tumme-totte View Post

In this perspective it's interesting to see if they are going US only to start with and if so - how soon do they go world wide. It took more than 1 year with the iPhone until many countries were added. In todays world that's forever.

All discussion are focused on US so far (publishers, carriers and so on). For many reasons (not to mention I'm not living in US this may also be a opportunity for Apple to go global. US is still their main focus, but to grow further the international perspective is important. Indeed the market becomes much bigger. But forging deals with content providers which is global (overcoming limped iTune Stores in many countries) can be a revolution in itself. And something which would carry Apple to yet another great dimension.

And as a shareholder I would like Apple to be even more global. That would also prevent some piracy, copy of their products and ease down the need to unlock. I'm not sure, but I think that quite a lot of jail breaking of the iPhone was done because a lot of non-US customers wanted the iPhone (including myself). Quite some volumes has been rumored to go to China also.

Go global ASAP! That's it!

I would think that Apple would have to go here for a while first, especially if it has 3G. Global markets usually need to see high demand in the home market first to get interested. In addition, it's much more difficult to do media deals out of the USa, where much of that is fractionated. We can see how long it took to get iTunes working in Europe. Those companies have to see good sales in the USA first before they will be willing to concede anything. Otherwise, it's too much of an uphill battle for Apple.

It's all too easy to say that they should do this now, without understanding the difficulty.
post #37 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Lots to question in this analysis. For starters, I find it difficult to believe that $600 in ASP will produce a 30% gross margin, but an 18% lower ASP ($500) will lower margins by only 1% - that must be some economies of scale that Apple is able to achieve in a very short period.

Second, how does this analysis make a judgement about how much it will add to 'GAAP earnings' without knowing whether there will be a post-paid pricing plan, which in turn would impact revenue (and hence earnings) recognition policies at Apple (as it does with the iPhone)? Or perhaps he means 'non-GAAP earnings'?

I agree, bogus assumptions based on bogus assumptions is bosgosity, squared. Throwing darts at the wall would be a more credible methodology.

On your second point, Apple can at any time begin stating their GAAP earnings to include previously differed (non-GAAP) income, since the rules have been changed to allow it. Not sure if that answers your question, but the distinctions between was called GAAP and non-GAAP have disappeared under the recently revised reporting rules.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #38 of 135
Apple PR hard at work. it's going to sell 10 million units since everyone can't wait to get their hands on it.

seriously, how many people are going to buy a $1000 device that seems to do nothing more than make you spend more money just to use it? no matter how cool and sexy it looks.

only reason people buy netbooks is that they are cheap and disposable for what they do. $1000 or $800 and a $60 a month extra payment for 3G service is a full featured laptop
post #39 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveGee View Post

Are you somehow being forced to come to this site due to a judges order? If not I've got a secret I wanna share with you...

[CENTER]IF YOU THINK A SITE SUCKS
DON'T VISIT!
[/CENTER]

Life is far too short to get yourself all lathered up over the content of a web site that you find so appalling. Continuing to visit said sites might be a sign that you need to seek out a mental health professional to determine the root cause of your incessant desire to mentally torture yourself. The web is filled with sites that I find very annoying but you don't see me trying to correct each and every one I come across... Instead I just move on to more enjoyable pursuits.

Hard to do when nearly EVERY F*CKING SITE has rampant rumors posted everywhere. I hope this thing cures cancer/aids/world poverty/global warming for as much as i keep seeing it. I am at the point where i want to take my iMac and throw it out the damn window.

http://www.techcrunch.com/2010/01/20...ff-for-a-week/

Quote:
I get that an Apple tablet is big news. I agree with those who say that Apple’s product launches deserve more attention than those from other companies as their products tend to be ‘game-changers’. I, along with most other avowed Mac fans, will be tuning in to the webcast of the launch announcement, and – despite my cynicism over its threat to the Kindle – there’s at least a slim possibility that I’ll buy whatever it is that Apple wants to sell me.

But until the official launch announcement comes, I would rather not hear another word about Apple and their tablet. Not because it isn’t news – but because so many of the journalists anticipating the launch have dropped any sense of responsibility to their readers and replaced it with cloying fanboyism.

They claim of course that they’re digging for facts – the name of the new product, its price point, its specs – because that’s what reporters do. Bullshit. What reporters do is find out things that people don’t want us to know. In seven days’ time Apple is going to announce the name of their product, its price, its specs and much more besides. Revealing those things seven days early isn’t news.

At best it’s attention seeking: every blogger and his dog wants to be able to say “I knew it was going to be called the iWhateverthehell before you did”. It’s the same look-at-me motive that caused them to post their launch invitations online, like they’re received one of Willy Wonka’s golden tickets or a day pass to fucking Narnia

This story pretty much sums up the stupidity thats happening on the internet, RIGHT NOW.
post #40 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

Apple's job is going to be easier this time around. They've already got carrier and content partners in a plethora of countries.

*IF* this is a connected device, I'd expect it to launch in at least 12 markets initially.

It doesn't matter. Those "partners" are going to want to cut a new deal. Without some evidence that the tablet is going to be a strong seller, they will be difficult to convince. That' why Apple went with just AT&T at first. They got what they needed, and could show others that they wanted the phone. The tablet is no different.

In addition, we all know how conservative Apple is with early production. There is no way they will be able to meet strong demand worldwide right from the beginning, should it happen.
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