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Wall Street expects record earnings to kick off Apple's big week

post #1 of 56
Thread Starter 
As Apple prepares to report its earnings today at 5 p.m. Eastern time, most Wall Street analysts expect the company to report its best quarter ever, with the potential for record holiday iPhone and Mac sales.

On average, analysts expect Apple to report an 18.6 percent increase in revenue to $12.06 billion and $2.07 earnings per share. That would be driven by sales of 8.9 million iPhones, 21 million iPods and 3 million Macs. The three-month frame ended in late December, and represents all of Apple's holiday sales.

Analyst Shaw Wu with Kaufman Bros. remains above Wall Street consensus, with expectations of $12.4 billion in revenue and $2.15 EPS. He issued a note to investors Monday morning noting there is potential for upside to his estimates. He has predicted sales of 22 million iPods, 9.5 million iPhones and 2.9 million Macs.

"We believe there is room in all business areas, but particularly in the iPhone business, where we will likely see a new quarterly shipment record, beating its previous record of 7.4 million iPhones set last quarter, and close to RIM's record of 10.1 million BlackBerries shipped," he said.

However, his Mac estimates come in slightly lower than Wall Street, due to rumors of production issues with the newly redesigned iMac, released last October. In December, Apple apologized for shipment delays, but declined to acknowledge reports of problems, particularly with the new 27-inch model.

But competing analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray has forecast 3.1 million Mac sales. If that prediction proves true, it would be Apple's best quarter ever. In October, the company reported its current best of 3.05 million Macs. Last quarter was also a record for iPhone sales, which hit 7.4 million.

Wu expects Apple to issue its traditionally conservative guidance for the coming March quarter. He has modeled $9.8 billion in revenue and $1.55 EPS, against market consensus of $10.4 billion revenue and $1.77 EPS. He has reiterated a buy recommendation, and Kaufman Bros. has retained its $253 price target.



Of course, Apple's results are only a part of the picture this week. Wall Street and technology enthusiasts are also eagerly awaiting the company's media event to show off its "latest creation," due to take place Wednesday at 10 a.m. Pacific time at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco. It is widely expected that Apple will use the event to introduce its long-rumored touchscreen tablet device.
post #2 of 56
I'd be interested in seeing the updated iPhone market share numbers.
post #3 of 56
More important... what the non-GAAP EPS for the last Q? $3.50 Anybody?
post #4 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by AjitMD View Post

More important... what the non-GAAP EPS for the last Q? $3.50 Anybody?

When does AAPL start reporting non-GAAP as GAAP?
post #5 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by AjitMD View Post

More important... what the non-GAAP EPS for the last Q? $3.50 Anybody?

Should be here:

http://financial-alchemist.blogspot....ion-still.html
post #6 of 56
Is this a first time a product launch follows so closely after an earnings report?
post #7 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by dm3 View Post

When does AAPL start reporting non-GAAP as GAAP?

They don't. However they did announce non-GAAP adjusted sales and non-GAAP adjusted net income in their press release from Q4. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was approximately $3.12 if I did my math correctly.
post #8 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Is this a first time a product launch follows so closely after an earnings report?

No, they announced the new iMac the day after they reported Q4 earnings.
post #9 of 56
It's interesting to note that according to the graph, the 12-month estimates were all reached in about 1 quarter (except of course the ones that haven't had a quarter of run time yet).
post #10 of 56
I think Apple definitely has a hit on its hands. People are slowly but surely warming up to the idea that the tablet will be good for business, in addition to being an e-reader and a multimedia tool. Here's a couple of articles that indicate this:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/pcworld/2010...albusinesstool

http://www.alltabletnews.com/2010/01...k-replacement/
post #11 of 56
Haven't the rules changed to allow opting out of GAAP in certain sectors, of which iPhone sales would be one?
post #12 of 56
What's all this about The Gap? Are they having a sale?
post #13 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by dm3 View Post

When does AAPL start reporting non-GAAP as GAAP?

It's not that non-GAAP will be any more official, it's that the definition of GAAP is changing. So Apple won't need to use "subscription" accounting. Apple hasn't announced when they're going to end that, but maybe we'll hear something about it at today's meeting.
post #14 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Is this a first time a product launch follows so closely after an earnings report?

The first mac was launched at a shareholder meeting.
post #15 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

What's all this about The Gap? Are they having a sale?

Cool. Ima get me some of those skin tight jeans deals. Maybe a cute top.
post #16 of 56
If memory serves me, Apple has sold about 30MM iPhones in the last 7 quarters, plus an estimated 10MM this quarter. So, with subscription accounting, they realize 12.5% of 40MM phones (or ASP * Margin * 5MM). Without subscription accounting, it is (ASP * Margin * 10MM). Based on a $700 ASP and 30% Margin, it would add about $1B in profit or $1.17 in EPS to the GAAP numbers. High end it would be $1.50 extra, putting the total non-GAAP range somewhere between $2.71 and $3.50 based on analyst numbers. (Median would be $3.24)

I'm guessing they will come in around $2.40/3.50 GAAP/Non.
post #17 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booga View Post

It's not that non-GAAP will be any more official, it's that the definition of GAAP is changing. So Apple won't need to use "subscription" accounting. Apple hasn't announced when they're going to end that, but maybe we'll hear something about it at today's meeting.

Since they've been reporting non-GAAP numbers for some time now, it will not be much of a real change when it does happen.

Also FWIW, all quarters should be "record" quarters, especially when considered YOY. Anything less would be negative growth, AKA, a disaster (for stockholders, anyway). The real issue is whether EPS growth exceeds expectations.

I'm going to take a guess and say $2.35 EPS. If it's much less than that, the stock will get hammered.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #18 of 56
It won't be 3.1 million Macs sold rather 3.3 million.
post #19 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Is this a first time a product launch follows so closely after an earnings report?

quite possibly. part of which is due to Apple always adjusting their time table for Macworld (which was typically a week or two before the earnings announcement).

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #20 of 56
Quote:
It is widely expected that Apple will use the event to introduce its long-rumored touchscreen tablet device.


This might disappoint some, but just because the attendants at CES produce a "tablet PC" running a full OS doesn't mean Apple is going too.

Apple is building upon the App Store success with a larger, and better, iPod Touch. This article proves it.

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...ne_os_3_2.html

I don't even believe they will risk changing the name to iSlate or iPad, they will want to identify upon the "iPod" branding installed in billions of people's minds.

The iPod is Apple's most highest volume selling device.

March could be a rough quarter for Apple (and for a lot of other companies), sales volume needs to be high, this means a reasonable priced product that primarily caters to games which sells so well on the App Store. A full Tablet PC will be priced to high just to run $3 iPhone Apps.

I know Steve doesn't like to think his devices as just for games, so he's made hardware and software changes and deals to expand on other areas the device can be used for. E-Reader, drawing and painting for instance.

The new larger iPod Touch will be a compliment device to a computer, not a standalone device like a Tablet PC.

However, I suspect the App Store will start having higher priced and higher quality apps to meet the expanded capabilities of the new iPod Touch.

The iPod Touch is going to grow, that's all. The rest is hype in my opinion.
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The danger is that we sleepwalk into a world where cabals of corporations control not only the mainstream devices and the software on them, but also the entire ecosystem of online services around...
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post #21 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacTripper View Post

This might disappoint some, but just because the attendants at CES produce a "tablet PC" running a full OS doesn't mean Apple is going too.

Apple is building upon the App Store success with a larger, and better, iPod Touch. This article proves it.

I don't even believe they will risk changing the name to iSlate or iPad, they will want to identify upon the "iPod" branding installed in billions of people's minds.

The iPod is Apple's most highest volume selling device.

March could be a rough quarter for Apple (and for a lot of other companies), sales volume needs to be high, this means a reasonable priced product that primarily caters to games which sells so well on the App Store. A full Tablet PC will be priced to high just to run $3 iPhone Apps.

I know Steve doesn't like to think his devices as just for games, so he's made hardware and software changes and deals to expand on other areas the device can be used for. E-Reader, drawing and painting for instance.

The new larger iPod Touch will be a compliment device to a computer, not a standalone device like a Tablet PC.

However, I suspect the App Store will start having higher priced and higher quality apps to meet the expanded capabilities of the new iPod Touch.

The iPod Touch is going to grow, that's all. The rest is hype in my opinion.

I love iCal'ing the stuff you post.
post #22 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

I love iCal'ing the stuff you post.


Good, could you tell me when I was the first to propose that the iTablet was really just a larger iPod Touch and used the App Store apps?

I so like being right you know.
The danger is that we sleepwalk into a world where cabals of corporations control not only the mainstream devices and the software on them, but also the entire ecosystem of online services around...
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The danger is that we sleepwalk into a world where cabals of corporations control not only the mainstream devices and the software on them, but also the entire ecosystem of online services around...
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post #23 of 56
The numbers to beat are:

$12.25 Billion in top line revenues
$2.42 EPS

Over 9 million iPhones
Over 3 million Macs
In a world of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
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In a world of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
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post #24 of 56
Considering how badly the pundits missed last quarter, I wouldn't be surprised if Apple exceeds the highest prognostications again.

Try this:

3.3 million computers;
11.4 million iPhones;
21 million iPods
Revenue (non-subscription) $13.2 Billion
Earnings: $2.45/share

Do I really believe these numbers? No, but it would not surprise me if they came true. The only 'inside' info I have is that the people at the three Apple stores I have visited in the last three months all told me that computers and iPhones were flying off the shelves at a pace higher than they have ever seen before.
post #25 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by westech View Post

..The only 'inside' info I have is that the people at the three Apple stores I have visited in the last three months all told me that computers and iPhones were flying off the shelves at a pace higher than they have ever seen before.


The holidays were good to Apple, even the bad economy. Because what cheaper way to save money than to stay home and surf the net?

However, netbook sales were even better this holiday season as they are cheaper and people tend to think that's all they need.

As a result I expect that Apple's market share will have shrunk a bit.


But I think Apple is going to answer the netbook threat with the *cough* larger iPod Touch/iTablet. A bit late to the party, but arrived.
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post #26 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

What's all this about The Gap? Are they having a sale?


post #27 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacTripper View Post

Good, could you tell me when I was the first to propose that the iTablet was really just a larger iPod Touch and used the App Store apps?

I so like being right you know.

If you couch your predictions in your own terms then you will always be right. This is the central pillar of your self-delusion. Of course it will be like a larger iPod Touch you moron - what the hell else would it be like? A bicycle? Of course it will use a version of the App Store. No one has ever seriously suggested otherwise, certainly not me. You announce it as is if it's some big fucking revelation.
post #28 of 56
Speaking of which, if anyone has been particularly prescient as of late, it's Ireland.
post #29 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacTripper View Post

Good, could you tell me when I was the first to propose that the iTablet was really just a larger iPod Touch and used the App Store apps?

I so like being right you know.


http://forums.appleinsider.com/showp...8&postcount=19

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hattig View Post

Ah, an Apple Tablet based around something that is probably in-between Mac OS X and iPhone OS X in functionality and features.

The on-screen keyboard should be easier to use though - in portrait mode it will be as big as the keyboard on the iPhone in landscape mode, although I think they would have to split it in landscape mode because the screen will be too big for thumbs to stretch to the centre.

The release of the Tablet, if it happens, will probably come at the same time, or a couple of months after the release of developer tools for the platform (it ain't very useful if it doesn't have third party applications!). It might just be that the developer tools will also support the iPhone and iPod Touch - if this rumoured Tablet utilises an ARM chip still.

Functionally it would be a larger iPod Touch + Bluetooth + user installable apps + more apps by default. No, it won't have a newton emulator for all those old applications...

An SD card slot would be useful too, Apple...


http://forums.appleinsider.com/showt...re#post1316910

Quote:
Originally Posted by imacman287 View Post

Here are my thoughts on the rumored 'tablet' multi-touch device.

Part 1: Software Clues

\tAs a OS X user/developer/administrator since 10.0 (I remember running Developer Preview 3) it has been very fascinating to see OS X mature into what it is today. It now is loaded with features friendly to consumers, follows in the spirt of NeXTSTEP object oriented programming techniques with Cocoa and Cocoa Touch, and runs across multiple instructions sets and microprocessor architectures (x86: 32 & 64bit, PPC: 32 and 64 bit, ARMv6). OS X is a flexible beast that will soon undergo a change in 'focus' with Snow Leopard.
\tApple claims that, "Snow Leopard dramatically reduces the footprint of Mac OS X, making it even more efficient for users, and giving them back valuable hard drive space." Significant under-the-hood changes will take place with the multiple upgrades, here the upgrades known for sure from the official Snow Leopard Preview site:
* Grand Central (easier multi-core programming and better core utilization)
* OpenCL (the ability to use the GPU as a coprocessor for specialized non-graphical tasks)
• Better 64bit support (up to 16TB of RAM, 64bit Cocoa)
* A major QuickTime revision that uses ".. media technology pioneered in OS X iPhone, Snow Leopard introduces QuickTime X, a streamlined, next-generation platform that advances modern media and Internet standards. QuickTime X features optimized support for modern codecs and more efficient media playback, making it ideal for any application that needs to play media content."
• Exchange Support built into Mail, Address Book, and iCal.

Other features "spotted" since WWDC in Snow Leopard developer builds:
• Significantly smaller application package sizes
• Multi-touch framework (currently used to support Air/Pro Multi-touch trackpads)
• Auto Activation features (fonts found with spotlight and activated)
• Text processing features like auto correction, smart dash insertion, and text replacement features (typing TM and getting ™)
• ZFS Support for multiple hard drives
• Significant Safari JavaScript speedup with SproutCore, self contained web apps
• LLVM compiler tools aimed to provide fast compiling with low memory use, expressive diagnostics, a modular library-based architecture, and tight integration within Xcode. Just In Time compilation, cross-file optimization (link together code from different languages and optimize across file boundaries), modular compiler architecture (for creating components that have few dependencies).
• Improved printing with CUPS


Part 2: What kind of hardware would these new features compliment?

\tSo... why have I been discussing this in the future hardware forum? Well we know Apple Inc is a hardware company, and is special because it uses it's software expertise to built a 'total' solution all in one product. Well then, what would all of these new OS features be used for? Of course older machines will benefit from a more resource friendly OS, but Apple wants you to buy new hardware of-course. I believe that Snow Leopard will be the first OS to run on a new class of computer. Combine the best features of current portable computing devices; the Netbook (desktop class OS, cheap, wireless networking) with the iPhone (Multi-touch interface, GPS, Accelerometers, UI Animation). Imagine a 7" to 9" screen, on an oversized iPhone body no thicker than the MacBook Air, with the following features:

Hardware:
• Dual or Quad Core custom ARMv7 based processor designed by PA Semi (Much more energy efficient than Atom, faster, with low power chipset)
• PowerVR integrated SGX VXD class graphics (OpenGL 2, 3D Shader Engine)
• Hardware video codec acceleration, h.264 1080p HD output support
• A high resolution 720p HD screen 1280x720 (similar dpi as iPhone screen)
• 1 or 2 GB RAM configurations (not upgradeable)
• 16, 32, and 64GB flash storage configurations with 4GB (BTO option: 16GB) SSD for OS, frequently used programs, and cache
• Multi-touch compatibility with pen compatibility for Inkwell handwriting
• Front facing iSight webcam for iChat
• 1 USB 2.0 Port, Audio Out (In with adaptor) , Micro-DVI Out, Custom Dock Connector
• Mini MagSafe power adaptor with Mini MagSafe to USB charging adaptor
• 802.11b/g/n wireless, bluetooth, optional 3G adaptor (or iPhone tethering capability)
• x, y, z axis accelerometers for tilt control / orientation detection
• GPS Location services
• Vibration feedback
• Able to be docked into a iMac like docking station for charging and desktop use.
• Ability to run on battery for over 8 hours while browsing the web over a wireless connection. 10 Hours of HD video playback. 18 Hours light use.

Software:
Customized full version of Mac OS X Snow Leopard for Multi-touch devices.
• Modified Finder with a hybrid iPhone like interface cues for multi-touch compatibility.
• Applications loaded traditionally by the user or from the App Store.
• Cocoa Applications preferred; Java and other languages allowed. No carbon support.
• Able to run iPhone apps in the dashboard or as stand alone apps (like the old desktop accessory concept) .
• Can tether with iPhone to share 3G internet (may cost extra with cell phone carrier), pictures, calendars, files, stream music and movies between devices.
• Customized Safari build with multi-touch gesture support, magnification, pinch/double tap zoom. Can create iPhone like Web App programs, plug-in support.
• Customized iTunes software for smaller screen and multi-touch.
• A new program similar to Preview for reading books, PDFs, comics, newspapers, and subscription websites via App Store distribution.
• Full version of Quicktime X able to use acceleration hardware. Optimized for mobility, performance, and HD video.
• ZFS support to allow the SSD and flash storage to be combined in one volume, auto-allocation of OS and frequently used files to SSD.
• Entire OS X install to use less than 1GB of storage.
• Text Processing features and Auto Activation used to make multi-touch virtual keyboard more usable. Enhances Inkwell accuracy also.
• Location services used to detect settings to use (such as default printer, network configuration, etc).
• Grand Central used to optimize performance of applications and also help to save energy by scaling core clock speeds or turning off a cores.
• Full multi-touch versions of iCal, Mail, iChat, Address Book, Font Book, Image Capture, iSync, Safari, Quicktime, Spaces, Expose, TextEdit, and the usual utilities (Terminal, Disk Utility, Network Utility, etc).
• iLife 2009 with multi-touch included
• iWork 2009 with multi-touch included


Part 3: Price and Configurations
Market: Consumers, Students, highly mobile business professionals. For those who want all of there information accessible on-the-go.

The price will be competitive, aimed at the high-end of the netbook market segment. There will be a typical Apple premium on RAM and flash memory as it will not be upgradeable.

$699 for 16GB Flash version with 1GB RAM (plus 4GB SSD)
$799 for 32GB Flash version with 2GB RAM (plus 4GB SSD)
$899 for 64GB Flash version with 2GB RAM (plus 4GB SSD)
+Upgrade the SSD to a 16GB for an extra $200 on the 64GB model as an option.

---
Conclusion:
`I haven't posted anything in a while and don't have inside information, but I really think that Apple will come out with something like this. Multiple computing devices, able to work together on a network or the internet, running the same core OS across architectures will be very interesting. I have heard the code name Brick used to refer to a tablet like device through the rumors mills and the evidence that something big will be released is their. I think that looking into the development of Snow Leopard will be the best crystal ball as to what Apple's real plans are. I think that this kind of product will be announced at MacWorld S.F. in January along with the Snow Leopard release date and hidden features. What do you think? Will something like this be made?
post #30 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Is this a first time a product launch follows so closely after an earnings report?

I think its the first time for a Q1 report since MWSF fell so close to end of the quarter, but as cvaldes1831 states its not uncommon for Apple to announce/release products soon after a quarterly report.
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post #31 of 56

Anything that comes out hes going to claim that is what he meant. Its a 10 touchscreen, the Touch has a touchscreen, so its a larger iPod Touch just like I said.:

The more thoughtful posters here have gone into detail about the UI likely to be used for such a large touch handheld touchscreen, possible uses that exceed the iPod Touchs abilities and how current App Store apps will be able to run on the run on the device as part of an incentive to purchase the device while also allowing for tablet-specific apps to be created and sold.
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post #32 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by joe in miami View Post

The numbers to beat are:

$12.25 Billion in top line revenues
$2.42 EPS

Over 9 million iPhones
Over 3 million Macs

Try beating this:

$15B
$4.24
12 million
5 million.

See, that was easy, wasn't it? (I can give you higher numbers too, if you'd like! )
post #33 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Try beating this:

$15B
$4.24
12 million
5 million.

See, that was easy, wasn't it? (I can give you higher numbers too, if you'd like! )

I dare you. I double dare you!
Please don't be insane.
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post #34 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I dare you. I double dare you!

OK, OK.... (crawls back into cubicle).....
post #35 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Try beating this:

$15B
$4.24
12 million
5 million.

See, that was easy, wasn't it? (I can give you higher numbers too, if you'd like! )

In fairness, Joe was stating the "whisper" numbers from the street. If Apple does worse than them, we will see a drop. It matters to those of us holding Apple stock, who might care about an article on Wall Street earnings expectations...

...of course, if Apple bests them, no guarantee we actually see a bump...
post #36 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

In fairness, Joe was stating the "whisper" numbers from the street. If Apple does worse than them, we will see a drop. It matters to those of us holding Apple stock, who might care about an article on Wall Street earnings expectations...

...of course, if Apple bests them, no guarantee we actually see a bump...

Of course I knew that. I am just getting tired of this hyperventilated, short-term, quarter-to-quarter, second-derivative-of-a-whisper-number approach that so many seem to have towards investing.

Analyze carefully. If it looks decent, buy. Hold. Repeat. Much of the rest is noise.
post #37 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Try beating this:

$15B
$4.24
12 million
5 million.

See, that was easy, wasn't it? (I can give you higher numbers too, if you'd like! )

The $15B is possible if Apple converts from subscription accounting. Assuming that the previous 8 quarters sales are spread over the next 8 quarters, but that last quarter's sale are all taken to the bottom line and Apple sold 10 M iPhones at $300 a pop, that's $3B added to the revenye stream for the quarter. At a 40% margin that's another 1.2 B to add to their profit. Hmmm.
post #38 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by westech View Post

The $15B is possible if Apple converts from subscription accounting. Assuming that the previous 8 quarters sales are spread over the next 8 quarters, but that last quarter's sale are all taken to the bottom line and Apple sold 10 M iPhones at $300 a pop, that's $3B added to the revenye stream for the quarter. At a 40% margin that's another 1.2 B to add to their profit. Hmmm.

Groan. Please don't take what I said remotely seriously! It was meant to be a 'casually sarcastic' (almost a joke-y) response to all these crazy estimates being thrown around......

PS: The impact of things such as subscription accounting has been unambiguously factored into Apple's stock price already. And Apple will not make 40% margins. So, let's move along.....
post #39 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

I'd be interested in seeing the updated iPhone market share numbers.

Worldwide smartphone market share 4th calendar quarter 2009 Apple iPhone = 51%.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #40 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


Analyze carefully. If it looks decent, buy. Hold. Repeat. Much of the rest is noise.

As if it isn't that noise that keeps us coming back to these forums...
Progress is a comfortable disease
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Progress is a comfortable disease
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