Originally Posted by nvidia2008
Flash on the iPad at least will be important for that one little niggle people will have with it. WMV and other AVI playback plugins be damned, but Flash and Flash video, it can be useful for the overall web browsing experience.
I of course really support HTML5 video and so on, but we know Flash is not going away anytime soon.
Let's separate a Flash site from a site using Flash for streaming video.
Flash video streaming sites are beginning the end of their reign. It'll take awhile but the shift has started. With Apple and Google pushing HTML5 for video, among other things, it simply won't stand a chance, and I don't think anyone should rationally expect Apple to support Flash for video streaming.
Dynamic Flash sites are still going to be able to do a lot more than "webcode" can do and do it with considerably less effort for the developer. Proprietary Flash surely won't rule forever but the end hasn't even been theorized yet. Look at the HTML5 Canvas element. It's not nearly as easy to develop for as Flash, it's much more limited and there are no resource savings like there are with HTML5 video. I think it may even be worse for resources but it's hard to tell.
We'll see though, how users of the iPad, etc. will get by with or without it.
After 2.5 years it doesn't seem to be as big of problem as people thought it would. Once Hulu announces the shift then I think the balance of power for streaming Flash video will be irreversible. Flash would eat through through those resources, affecting battery and load times so I think that end of it people are happy about, if they even realize that as effect.
In some cases they might actually have a nice browsing experience on the iPad because they don't have all sorts of crazy ads and Flash gizmo thingies clogging up the page.
The longterm problem with Flash ads being removed is advertisers moving to HTML5, using CPU heavy elements like Canvas, accessing your GPU with WebGL and having to find a more complex system to turn off the ads. This is the unfortunate side-effect of the pushing out the popular plug-in.
PS: I'm sure this was mentioned more than once yesterday but I was offline... I think it's funny, in a somewhat pathetic way, that Jobs navigated to a site with Flash on it yesterday. The whole presentation seems like it was thrown together at the last minute without any rehearsing. He must have mentioned the accelerometer auto-adjuxting the orientation a half dozen times or more. Welcome to MacWorld 2007, Jobs!