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First iPad estimates: 4 million units in year one, 8 million in 2011

post #1 of 111
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With Apple introducing its iPad tablet on Wednesday at entry-level pricing much lower than anticipated, one prominent research and investment firm was quick to increase its first year unit sales estimates by as much as two-fold, while predicting that 2011 will see the device break out even further.

In a research report to clients, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said the iPad's $499 entry-level pricing now leads him to believe Apple will sell between 3 and 4 million of the devices in its first 12 months on the market. That's up from his earlier prediction of just shy of 1.9 million units made at the end of last year under the assumption that the product would average a $600 price tag.

"We have measured enthusiasm for the device's first year (2010), but we expect 2011 to be a breakout year for the iPad adding $4.6b (7.5%) to revenue in 2011," Munster said. "The iPad business may take one year to solidify, but we see*it as an investable theme for shareholders given its impact on 2011."

Still, Munster believes his first-year figures may come in at the lower end of Wall Street's consensus estimates, which are expected in the 4 to 5 million unit range. However, his belief that the iPad is poised to generate Apple an incremental $4.6 billion in sales the following year would equate to a doubling of unit sales to 8 million in 2011.

The analyst, who was in attendance for Apple's hands-on session with the iPad shortly after its announcement, also took pause to assess the iPad's potential to eat into sales of it's much smaller cousin, the iPod touch. While he doesn't see the tablet affecting sales of Macs, he trimmed his 2010 iPod touch unit sales estimate by roughly 1.8 million units to 20.6 million.

"After using the iPad, we believe it will cannibalize iPod touch sales, but not Mac sales," Munster said. "The gadget is a premium mobile device, not a computer; as such, we see some iPod touch buyers stepping up to the iPad, but consumers looking for an affordable portable computer will likely stick with the MacBook lineup."

The analyst maintained his "Overweight" rating and $280 price target on shares of Apple.
post #2 of 111
"The analyst . . . took pause to assess the iPad's potential to eat into sales of it's [sic] much smaller cousin, the iPod touch."

"It is much smaller cousin"? What the heck does THAT mean?
post #3 of 111
That's a fair assessment by Munster. Like I said before, iPad will "find it's own level" as a product. To me, this product is aimed at the aging Baby Boomer generation. It should enable traditional consumers of books and magazines to take an eco-friendly stance and it should enable 90% of most tasks needed by travelers on iPad. It's a smart product for what it offers, but I maintain that both iPod touch and iPad need to have built-in GPS.

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post #4 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by VinitaBoy View Post

"The analyst . . . took pause to assess the iPad's potential to eat into sales of it's [sic] much smaller cousin, the iPod touch."

"It is much smaller cousin"? What the heck does THAT mean?

"much smaller" = not as large as
"cousin" = related

Not really that complicated, and quite accurate.
post #5 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

That's a fair assessment by Munster. Like I said before, iPad will "find it's own level" as a product. To me, this product is aimed at the aging Baby Boomer generation. It should enable traditional consumers of books and magazines to take an eco-friendly stance and it should enable 90% of most tasks needed by travelers on iPad. It's a smart product for what it offers, but I maintain that both iPod touch and iPad need to have built-in GPS.

Claiming an Eco-Friendly stance with an electronic device is an oxymoron.
post #6 of 111
I'm stunned at how underwhelmed I am with this product. It doesn't appear to do anything that a touch or iphone can't do other than the chopped down iWork suite.
post #7 of 111
I'll stick with my MacBook Pro, you just can't go wrong to a lot of choice, power, storage, removable battery and upgrade-ability. And it already comes with a bigger screen and built in keyboard.

I see what Apple is doing now, they are pinching the MacBook Pro on every side, trying to get people to trade down in features.

On one side it's the MacBook Air and on the other is now the iPad.

And if this anal-ist doesn't think this will eat into Mac sales, he's wrong. A lot of typical consumers are ignorant and just buy the cheapest thing without doing any research.

$499 verses a $1999 MacBook Pro. "Internet and email, that's all I use a computer for!"


I don't have a iPod Touch as the storage is too small for my needs, but can it surf the internet without first being hooked up to a computer?

How about setting up a iTunes account?
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The danger is that we sleepwalk into a world where cabals of corporations control not only the mainstream devices and the software on them, but also the entire ecosystem of online services around...
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post #8 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by steviet02 View Post

I'm stunned at how underwhelmed I am with this product. It doesn't appear to do anything that a touch or iphone can't do other than the chopped down iWork suite.

What did you want to do with it?
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post #9 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

are expected in the 4 to 5 million unit range.

4 to 8 million suckers. I honestly can't see why anyone would buy this.

Is Apple on the verge of jumping the Shark? This is it? An over-hyped, under-featured (for a tablet, if that is what this is), enlarged iPhone. This iPad iSucks.
1. no multitasking.
2. no camera/video chat.
3. Can you write on it? Does it have voice/handwriting recognition? Any new/better input method?
4. Can't run any real apps on it (if the iPhone OS is the future, count me out Apple. I'll stick with the traditional Mac OS , thank you).

etc, etc, etc.....
post #10 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by steviet02 View Post

I'm stunned at how underwhelmed I am with this product. It doesn't appear to do anything that a touch or iphone can't do other than the chopped down iWork suite.

It might not be for everybody, but it does meld an interesting combination of Netbook and E-Book reader functionality. I'm hoping that it will end up being something I can use in meetings in lieu of my folio. Business applications for an effective device like this really haven't been talked about; it's a lot like Plastic Logic's attempt at a large device... for half the cost and more functionality.

At my office, it would hopefully help reduce clutter on the desk a bit as the purpose of many print-outs is for meetings not at the desk. The little cover case thing that acts as a stand would help with the bias on people that bring laptops to meetings (effectively to play solitaire).

A camera would have been nice, but you should still be able to pull off VOIP. I would also guess that multi-tasking could happen later... hopefully before too long.
post #11 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

The analyst, who was in attendance for Apple's hands-on session with the iPad shortly after its announcement, also took pause to assess the iPad's potential to eat into sales of it's much smaller cousin, the iPod touch. While he doesn't see the tablet affecting sales of Macs, he trimmed his 2010 iPod touch unit sales estimate by roughly 1.8 million units to 20.6 million.

But what impact might this have on the sales of say the iPod Nano? I can imagine my device lineup now being having an iPad and a Nano, whereas at the moment I have an iPod Touch.
post #12 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacTripper View Post

I'll stick with my MacBook Pro, you just can't go wrong to a lot of choice, power, storage, removable battery and upgrade-ability. And it already comes with a bigger screen and built in keyboard.

I see what Apple is doing now, they are pinching the MacBook Pro on every side, trying to get people to trade down in features.

On one side it's the MacBook Air and on the other is now the iPad.

And if this anal-ist doesn't think this will eat into Mac sales, he's wrong. A lot of typical consumers are ignorant and just buy the cheapest thing without doing any research.

$499 verses a $1999 MacBook Pro. "Internet and email, that's all I use a computer for!"


I don't have a iPod Touch as the storage is too small for my needs, but can it surf the internet without first being hooked up to a computer?

How about setting up a iTunes account?

That is a crazy statement. They have NO desire for people to trade down - they want people to buy both. If you can afford $2-3K for a MBP, you can also buy an iPad for $600. It doesn't replace an MBP except for the most basic tasks which if that is all you do, you don't need an MBP. The iPad will be a vastly superior couch, plane, holiday experience for all media consumption and the MBP will still be better at all forms of content creation.. if you need to do the latter, buy an MBP, if you want the best of both worlds, buy both.

I do stand slightly corrected for the kid below who will buy one instead of an MBP - there's always one!!
post #13 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neruda View Post

4 to 8 million suckers. I honestly can't see why anyone would buy this.

iCal'd.

We'll see you in a year, starting in April.

I wonder just how many shades of red your face will be.
post #14 of 111
I'm going to college this summer and am going to buy this instead of the MacBook Pro I planned. The $1700-$2200 i was going to pay is now reduced to ~$800 (including keyboard dock and case plus maybe a warranty) That is a savings of about $1,000!!! This meets the needs of a college student perfectly, and who knows--maybe students'll get a discount (or maybe free shuffle with iPad purchase?) Anyway, here's to the king of the need-meeters, Apple.
GIGO. The truth in all of life.
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post #15 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neruda View Post

4 to 8 million suckers. I honestly can't see why anyone would buy this.

Is Apple on the verge of jumping the Shark? This is it? An over-hyped, under-featured (for a tablet, if that is what this is), enlarged iPhone. This iPad iSucks.
1. no multitasking.
2. no camera/video chat.
3. Can you write on it? Does it have voice/handwriting recognition? Any new/better input method?
4. Can't run any real apps on it (if the iPhone OS is the future, count me out Apple. I'll stick with the traditional Mac OS , thank you).

etc, etc, etc.....

FAIL
1) It will come (probably with 4.0) but there is strong empirical proof that no-one cares aside from a bunch of cheap geeks - hasn't held back the iPhone or made Android
2) ichat camera would be nice but most won't care at all
3) This is obviously for consumption much more than production - there are far more consumers than producers of content
4) this doesn't replace a laptop - you have both or whichever fits your needs

The tablet revolution neither requires your participation nor approval
post #16 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmf2 View Post

What did you want to do with it?

I would like it to multi task. They are saying that this is/should replace a laptop yet I can't talk on skype, read my email, and surf the web. Strange, don't you think?

A built in camera would have been nice to start with. I think I saw that they have an add on that plugs into the 30 pin connector, but thats just another item to carry around, blah......

I have a couple other gripes, the bezel is very large. I realize that you need a bezel to hold the device but it seems very large to me.



***** Edit

I meant netbook, not laptop....
post #17 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by steviet02 View Post

Claiming an Eco-Friendly stance with an electronic device is an oxymoron.

You really need to inform yourself better before making sweeping, snarky statements like that: http://www.apple.com/environment/complete-lifecycle/
post #18 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

You really need to inform yourself better before making sweeping, snarky statements like that: http://www.apple.com/environment/complete-lifecycle/

Snarky? GFY
post #19 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by steviet02 View Post

I would like it to multi task. They are saying that this is/should replace a laptop yet I can't talk on skype, read my email, and surf the web. Strange, don't you think?

A built in camera would have been nice to start with. I think I saw that they have an add on that plugs into the 30 pin connector, but thats just another item to carry around, blah......

I have a couple other gripes, the bezel is very large. I realize that you need a bezel to hold the device but it seems very large to me.

They never said or implied it replaced a laptop overall. They said is was better than a laptop and a smartphone at the things is is better at... and obviously inferior to them in other things. The only people who will replace a real laptop with this are people who never needed a laptop in the first place.

I agree, Multi-tasking would be nice without replacing a laptop but probably kill battery life. I'm sure it will come, probably with 4.0 but I won't miss it much til then.
post #20 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

That's a fair assessment by Munster. Like I said before, iPad will "find it's own level" as a product. To me, this product is aimed at the aging Baby Boomer generation. It should enable traditional consumers of books and magazines to take an eco-friendly stance and it should enable 90% of most tasks needed by travelers on iPad. It's a smart product for what it offers, but I maintain that both iPod touch and iPad need to have built-in GPS.

Great point about eco-friendly...in July I will be canceling home delivery of the AZ Republic, the paper edition of the Wall Street Journal, Time magazine, Sail, Runner's World, AZ Highways, MacWorld, Foreign Affairs, Flight Journal, Soaring, Tennis, Golf and Playboy. And get the 'Paid' online versions!

All these guys do is cut down trees, print there product with toxic ink, 'truck' around to grocery stores using Mid-East oil, wait 3 weeks and pick up 99% of it that hasn't sold and 'truck' it to the land-fill! What a great business model! Sheez!
post #21 of 111
The iPad picks up where the iPhone leaves off, and I think it will be fabulously successful.
So often I sit in the living room or in a plane with my MacBook on my lap, annoyed at the clumsyness, the hot laptop body, and, on an airplane, the inability to open the darn think far enough to actually read the screen when I am not in an exit row, business or first class.
It is interesting to to see the high level of criticism of so many Apple announcements, and how little they correlate with the success of the product. Remember iPod nano (complaints about price), iPod shuffle (initially thought of as just laime), the various iMacs, but esp the 'lampshade iMac' (really bad reviews due to it's odd shape), etc.
I have high hopes, and I think it is to the eReaders and Tablet laptops what the iPod is to other mp3 players ('Zune' anyone?, or remember those things form 2001 when the first iPod cameout)....
Can't wait to get mine!
post #22 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

... now leads him to believe Apple will sell between 3 and 4 million of the devices in its first 12 months on the market. That's up from his earlier prediction of just shy of 1.9 million units ........

The analyst.. .. trimmed his 2010 iPod touch unit sales estimate by roughly 1.8 million units to 20.6 million.

That does not make much sense.

He says, between 3 and 4 million iPads, so let's say, 3.5 million. That is 1.6 million more than his original estimate (1.9 million). But that extra 1.6 million will eat into an expected 1.8 million iPod Touchs, according to him? I.e., 200,000 more Touchs cannibalized than the number of extra iPads sold?
post #23 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by Capnbob View Post

They never said or implied it replaced a laptop overall. They said is was better than a laptop and a smartphone at the things is is better at... and obviously inferior to them in other things. The only people who will replace a real laptop with this are people who never needed a laptop in the first place.

I agree, Multi-tasking would be nice without replacing a laptop but probably kill battery life. I'm sure it will come, probably with 4.0 but I won't miss it much til then.


He clearly was comparing this device to a netbook when he started out the event/ipad intro by talking about how bad the netbooks are. This in itself is saying, "Instead of buying a netbook, we have something for you that is better". And I just don't see it yet, maybe it turns into that device that does over take the need of a netbook, for me it's not there yet.
post #24 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by steviet02 View Post

Snarky? GFY

Yes, snarky. And foul-mouthed.
post #25 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by steviet02 View Post

I'm stunned at how underwhelmed I am ....

And, we're overwhelmed by how stunned you are.
post #26 of 111
8 million ipads sold in 2011? Keep dreaming....

This will not cannibalize ipod touch sales at all. Who the hell wants to make this huge ipod their main mp3 player? If anything, people who buy this thing thinking it will replace a bunch of shit will find themselves starting to use it only in the house (and even then less if the household has a laptop) and in a limited fashion after it becomes clear how cumbersome it is to carry around this thing daily, much like a laptop, except possibly at airports... and how its abilities are 95% matched by the cheaper more convenient ipod touch or iphone.

I think Apple really miscalculated here on this tablet....it's the definition of an ultra niche product...and for those that buy on the hype, like I said chances are that after the novelty wears off, the tablet will be mostly left unused outside the house. 8 million sold? Keep dreaming...
post #27 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

iCal'd.

We'll see you in a year, starting in April.

I wonder just how many shades of red your face will be.

Quado, you've been right all along. This is a serious game changer....I for one will stay with my original intel iMac now till it breaks, instead of upgrading to the new 27" iMac and will stay with my original intel macbook now till it breaks, too, instead of upgrading to the MBA. I really want both of those. But now I will get the iPad....it looks a glorious machine!

Edit: When my iMac breaks, I will love to go out and get the 27" iMac. Coupled with a wifi iPad and my 3GS iPhone...I will be set big time!
post #28 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

Great point about eco-friendly...in July I will be canceling home delivery of the AZ Republic, the paper edition of the Wall Street Journal, Time magazine, Sail, Runner's World, AZ Highways, MacWorld, Foreign Affairs, Flight Journal, Soaring, Tennis, Golf and Playboy. And get the 'Paid' online versions!

All these guys do is cut down trees, print there product with toxic ink, 'truck' around to grocery stores using Mid-East oil, wait 3 weeks and pick up 99% of it that hasn't sold and 'truck' it to the land-fill! What a great business model! Sheez!

Exactly. Concerns that appeal to a huge number of (well-off) people today.
post #29 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by Capnbob View Post

The tablet revolution neither requires your participation nor approval

True. But who says Apple is the only game in town? I can participate, just not with the iPad.

As bad as the reputation of tablets have been up to this point (not ready for prime time, not done right, etc), there are windows based tablets that put this iPad to shame (functionality wise). I say that and I absolutely hate windows. But I would certainly choose a Windows 7 based tablet over this any day. No comparison.
post #30 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Exactly. Concerns that appeal to a huge number of (well-off) people today.

Thanks, I've been rationalizing getting these publications, because I'm huge into recycling. But as you mentioned...better not to get them in the first place so as not to even have to recycle! I'm on board baby!
post #31 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Yes, snarky. And foul-mouthed.

You apparently didn't read his post and take my response in context. The life of an electronic appliance/device does not end up being recycled the way you think it does. Just because the mess isn't directly in our backyard doesn't mean there isn't a mess.

This policy of shipping items worldwide to be recycled is a farce of sorts. Without knowing exactly where the items go, because Apple doesn't tell anyone, one can only guess that it could end up at places like this http://www.engadget.com/2008/11/10/v...nics-revealed/

So when you are done being naive about this stuff you will see how an electronic device and eco-friendly don't really belong in the same sentence.

Edit ****

And yes, I know apple has made an effort to remove some of the nastiest toxins from their products.
post #32 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by LouisTheXIV View Post

8 million ipads sold in 2011? Keep dreaming....

This will not cannibalize ipod touch sales at all. Who the hell wants to make this huge ipod their main mp3 player? If anything, people who buy this thing thinking it will replace a bunch of shit will find themselves starting to use it only in the house (and even then less if the household has a laptop) and in a limited fashion after it becomes clear how cumbersome it is to carry around this thing daily, much like a laptop, except possibly at airports... and how its abilities are 95% matched by the cheaper more convenient ipod touch or iphone.

I think Apple really miscalculated here on this tablet....it's the definition of an ultra niche product...and for those that buy on the hype, like I said chances are that after the novelty wears off, the tablet will be mostly left unused outside the house. 8 million sold? Keep dreaming...

The iPhone has a video out and external keyboard support? It doesn't matter if the iPhone has 95% of the capabilities if consumers need that 1% feature of a larger screen.
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post #33 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by steviet02 View Post

You apparently didn't read his post and take my response in context. The life of an electronic appliance/device does not end up being recycled the way you think it does. Just because the mess isn't directly in our backyard doesn't mean there isn't a mess.

This policy of shipping items worldwide to be recycled is a farce of sorts. Without knowing exactly where the items go, because Apple doesn't tell anyone, one can only guess that it could end up at places like this http://www.engadget.com/2008/11/10/v...nics-revealed/

So when you are done being naive about this stuff you will see how an electronic device and eco-friendly don't really belong in the same sentence.

A bit harsh, but I see your point. But at least it's a starting point. Apple is 'trending' in the right direction. My original 1st gen iPhone (I now have a 3Gs) used to sit next to my bedside with an 'Alarm clock' App. And now sits next to my TV and I use it as the remote. (Well, not quite yet b/c although I've downloaded RowMote, I haven't set it up yet!)

But Apple will accept any printer, laptop from any manufacturer, pay the shipping and recycle it. that's a pretty good start. Radio shack accepts any cell phone to recycle and I believe I'm right in there are efforts to standardize the chargers for the billion phones sold each year.

Anyway, just in my case one iPad is going to replace 2 hard copy newspapers (delivered every day), a dozen or so magazines, an indeterminate amount of hard copy books, not to mention all the DVD's and CD's (and their plastic cases) that I used to purchase before having an iPod and an AppleTV. And BTW, it's not just the physical product that is wasteful, it's all the distribution costs involved also that are being saved...think Mid-East oil/gasoline here!
post #34 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

And, we're overwhelmed by how stunned you are.

I'm astonished by how overwhelmed you are.
Please don't be insane.
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post #35 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacTripper View Post


And if this anal-ist doesn't think this will eat into Mac sales, he's wrong. A lot of typical consumers are ignorant and just buy the cheapest thing without doing any research.

$499 verses a $1999 MacBook Pro. "Internet and email, that's all I use a computer for!"


I don't have a iPod Touch as the storage is too small for my needs, but can it surf the internet without first being hooked up to a computer?

How about setting up a iTunes account?


Tose 'typical consumers' would never buy a MB or MB Pro; they buy $400 Dells. The only Apple product I see the iPad as taking sales from will most likely be the top tier iPod Touch.
post #36 of 111
No imagination people, as per usual. It will sell well over 4 million in the first year I guarantee it. Quadra 610 iCal that would you?

I got the name wrong (I didn't think they would really go for iPad!)
I got the processor wrong, though in fairness it is based on the ARM design
Size and form factor were what I expected though I thought the screen would be 2:3 like the iPhone. At first I balked at the large bezel but it makes sense once the thing is people's hands.
OS is of course what was expected though there some things in the SDK that are a nice surprise
Price was less than I expected. This thing will sell.

By the time it ships there are going to be some killer apps available, particularly in a bunch of vertical markets (where the tablet concept has always seemed ideally suited)
post #37 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinney57 View Post

No imagination people, as per usual. It will sell well over 4 million in the first year I guarantee it.

Or our money back?

Please don't be insane.
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post #38 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

You really need to inform yourself better before making sweeping, snarky statements like that: http://www.apple.com/environment/complete-lifecycle/

No replaceable battery, no ability to add memory. This is designed to be thrown out in a few years just like the quarter Billion iphones and ipods sold in the last 9 years. They make fun toys, but don't be so quick to pat apple on the back for their environmental contribution.
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post #39 of 111
I'll say it again; this thing is going to absolutely take off in vertical markets: hotels, film & TV, medical, music & recording, venue management, trucking etc... Why? because there are already thousands of registered iPhone OS developers in those fields. The increased screen real estate has the potential for serious leverage of existing assets.
post #40 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Or our money back?


Absolutely.
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