...as always since I'm in Germany.
First year sales... just short of 5 million;
Second year: just north of 10 million...
...and those are conservative estimates on my part.
I see this device as the "computer for the rest of 'em"... not "us" tech-geeks.
And there is a whole boatload of "them" out there that are sick and tired of Windows computers, where the iPhone and iPod Touch are too small (elderly and children), and people that have never had a "computer" of any kind.
• Less than 25% of the sales numbers above will be represented by "tech-geeks"
• A bendable iSight camera attachment will be an accessory
• Flash will be ready by the shipping date. It will be user-defined to run when you want it too, ala "Click-to-Flash".
• iPhone OS 4.0 will introduce limited multi-tasking for approved apps, which will go through a longer and more rigorous testing and approval process. Games will not be allowed to be multi-tasked for instance.
• Also in iPhone OS 4.0 will be more enterprise-centric controls and tools i.e. Exchange support, lock and wiping, VPN, and Growl notifications
• Back-to-school specials in September will bring the price down $100.- for students.
• handwriting recognition will be done by a 3rd party developer, possibly by the people making the Pogo-Stylus... which BTW works immediately on the iPad.
• by Xmas, there will be a HUGE accessory market for the iPad, and probably up to 30% of the Apple Retail stores will by stuffed with personalized cases, mounting devices and assorted add-ons.
...last but not least... AT&T will be the scape-goat in America for holding the iPad back, and you'll see a huge push by Google/Android/Chrome devices picking up the slack on "other" networks. However, as was seen yesterday, the iPad event damn near took Verizon, AT&T and the entire West Coast internet backbone down with it! Amazing!
You Ami's really need to do something about your infrastructure...SOON!
Originally Posted by BAW
Who cares if it eats into Mac sales? I don't because I think Apple is in the business of providing the best set of computing choices to the widest possible number of users, and those options just increased, maybe exponentially. Those of us who are power users, consultants, and geeks have to be careful not to assume the majority of computer users are like us. We are very often the exceptions, and complain about features that make absolutely no difference to the majority of people who want to simply use a device that works. The overwhelming success of the App Store shows the direction for the future of computing.
There is some interesting math that I'm sure Apple has done with the iPad. Compare the low-end MacBook with the basic iPad. In many cases the iPad may be all a user actually needs 90% (or more or all) of the time. Are Apple and its stockholders happier selling 2 million MacBooks at $1000 or 8 million iPads at $500? Plus, I don't think it's an either or situation. There are many people who do not currently use any kind of computer—PC or Mac—who are going to be irresistibly drawn to this little gem, and that means brand-new customers for Apple.
You think the iPhone has drawn attention? Let's talk again in two years about the iPad. My guess about sales? The iPad is going to sell 10 million units within the 12 months after it shows up for sale in the Apple Store.