First iPad estimates: 4 million units in year one, 8 million in 2011 - Page 3

The last product with a lukewarm reception was the iPhone 3GS. Actually that's not true, it was the camera-less iPod touch. Those devices went on to record sales. Apple products by a rule have very muted receptions. I wouldn't judge this device by it's reception or by what it doesn't have. I think the iPad has a very big upside, especially with a $500 base price.

...as always since I'm in Germany.

First year sales... just short of 5 million;
Second year: just north of 10 million...

...and those are conservative estimates on my part.

I see this device as the "computer for the rest of 'em"... not "us" tech-geeks.

And there is a whole boatload of "them" out there that are sick and tired of Windows computers, where the iPhone and iPod Touch are too small (elderly and children), and people that have never had a "computer" of any kind.

More predictions:

• Less than 25% of the sales numbers above will be represented by "tech-geeks"
• A bendable iSight camera attachment will be an accessory
• Flash will be ready by the shipping date. It will be user-defined to run when you want it too, ala "Click-to-Flash".
• iPhone OS 4.0 will introduce limited multi-tasking for approved apps, which will go through a longer and more rigorous testing and approval process. Games will not be allowed to be multi-tasked for instance.
• Also in iPhone OS 4.0 will be more enterprise-centric controls and tools i.e. Exchange support, lock and wiping, VPN, and Growl notifications
• Back-to-school specials in September will bring the price down $100.- for students.
• handwriting recognition will be done by a 3rd party developer, possibly by the people making the Pogo-Stylus... which BTW works immediately on the iPad.
• by Xmas, there will be a HUGE accessory market for the iPad, and probably up to 30% of the Apple Retail stores will by stuffed with personalized cases, mounting devices and assorted add-ons.

...last but not least... AT&T will be the scape-goat in America for holding the iPad back, and you'll see a huge push by Google/Android/Chrome devices picking up the slack on "other" networks. However, as was seen yesterday, the iPad event damn near took Verizon, AT&T and the entire West Coast internet backbone down with it! Amazing!

You Ami's really need to do something about your infrastructure...SOON!

Apple can count on me! I'll buy it on day one!

Although all the nerds on the forums around the internet are completely in rage, I think the iPad will be a huge hit. The price is right, the feature set is right for the target audience and the software an usability seems to be top notch.

And remember: the software is the most important thing - just think of the the iPhone... easily outspec'd, but up to now, no one came close to the software usability (and yes, I've played around with recent Android devices...)

Mmmm...I'm thinking completely wrong demographics. Despite brushing off McGraw Hill I expect most book sales will be to students, not aging boomers that read off an electronic device.

I also expect most productivity users to be far younger than boomers. Damn few boomers I know are willing to move from PowerPoint/Word to anything else. Not iWork, not Google Doc, not nada. I believe the largest Google Docs demographics is young.

"Forty-three percent of survey participants are aware of Google Docs, the company's free Web-based word processor, spreadsheet, and presentations product; 7% of respondents use Google Docs frequently and an additional 18% use the product occasionally. Awareness and usage is much higher among 18- to 25-year-olds."

Boomers don't game. How many boomers have an iPod touch? The iPhone demographic has shifted from predominantly older demographic to balanced. Now 15% of iPhone users are students, half under 30.

The only boomers this is likely to appeal to are frequent travelers, apple fanbois and aging techies (most of whom are panning it now).

The iPad will be a very nice for social media content creation (Apple kinda missed the boat not inviting facebook as an early app dev or maybe the facebook team's app wasn't great...dunno), have textbooks, have more games than any other kind of app, connect to projectors and show keynote (which after sales folks the next largest group that does this a lot are students), and likely have a $200 discount during Back To School season (like the iPod Touch) making it $299 for students buying MacBooks.

I see this appealing first to the younger demographic...especially ones that already carry a backpack every day for school. I also expect a lot of iTunes U folks are salivating and I think where kindle was a epic fail in the classroom the iPad will rock. I can see some rich social media/collaboration software for the iPad.

Even without a stylus this will rock. Frankly my handwriting sucks so much because I type more than anything else.

PS The iPad 3G models have a GPS. Partly I'm guessing for upsale, partly because Apple likes the little assist from cell towers.

Heh...you realize that Texas is nearly twice the size of Germany? And you're a bigger European country. For us...you're smaller than Montana (where?).

http://goeurope.about.com/od/europea...arison-map.htm

We're trying on that infrastructure stuff and we know we suck. But there ARE certain challenges.

Yeesh...set the bar higher. That's not a challenge as much as a given.

Phones and tablets are completely two different categories of devices. An iPod touch is better than this thing. And any $200 netbook with OS X on it obliterates this thing. Looks like Apple has hit the sweet spot [/sarcasm]

If this iPad is supposed to be a tablet, then that is the real comedy. You can only run one app at a time. Are you kidding me? Form over function. Form over function. Form over function......

This is so much more like a computer than a touch that I think that most tech folks putting the iPad down really missed the boat and won't get it (the concept) until after they've had a chance to use someone else's and play with the apps to discover a rich user interaction equal to desktop apps.

This is the first time, outside of concept videos (not even prototypes), that I've seen a desktop scale multi-touch interface environment that just works and doesn't appear clunky or tacked on. The way they've done their design is killer in both simplicity and usability (from a rough opinion from watching all the videos I could find).

The size is even great for the intended use cases. I still am unlikely to get a man bag but I will be hauling that little thing around everywhere in it's little case.

Esslinger called it "hyper-convergent" and "humanistic" design which I completely agree. Which is absolutely nothing like prior attempts at UMPCs, MIDs, or Tablets which is why they failed and this will succeed.

You have clearly never been on a film or TV set. The number of laptops people are carrying around for various tasks these days is just ridiculous. The iPhone has now become essential for the director and cameraman - and not as a phone. I can think of a dozen uses in that context off the top of my head but you will have to work them out for yourself.

There really is a shocking lack of imagination being shown towards this device on the interwebs which is at first saddening to see. I think however that it is probably just an indication of the fact that this is the first time this product type has ever been done in a half useable way.

Personally I was sold on the concept fifteen years ago when StarTrek Voyager first aired...

Clearly, I have not. You still haven't said what they are going to be used for. I'm not discounting that they could be used, but I'm not hearing what they offer that the phone doesn't.

6 TO 11 MILLION WILL SELL

world wide demand will suck these babes off thew shelves

AGAN
APPLE JUST HIT A GRAND SLAM

this is a large ipod topuch

next apple will sell a 4g/7g large iphone like version
maybe when there farms are built
maybe 2013-14 or so

and a third 8.5 x 5.5 " version will also come out for industry / doctors / lawyers / teachers

while the desktop dies

a new steam opens

go apple

AND PLEASE PEOPLE SHUT UP ABOUT MULTI TASKING

it will crash your devices and slow them to a crawl while killing your batteries it will also over heat the chips more than there are already

learn your tech before talking

[CENTER][/CENTER]

I think you may well be right.

The thing that moved the iPhone from being just another phone to something of a phenomenon was the apps other people created, and I think the iPad will be the same. It will need a bit of time to get going, but I can see it being huge. I love my Kindle, mostly because of it's convenient size, so something that size that can do more stands a chance of being great.

From the reviews, most of the ones from CES are comically bad, and an embarrassment to USE vs. the iPad. What you CAN do on one is irrelevant. What matters is what Joseph CaseOfMerlot WILL do with it. No-one who has actually fondled one seems in any doubt that the experience is superior to anything out there.
Your Win7 tablet may be more functional in terms of specs but it is undoubtedly inferior in what matters - experience. The market has proved that time and again over the past 10 years. This also applies to Android for the moment but that has more chance of moving from geek to chic at some point.

The iphone is too small for many/most potential users (people >35) out there to do the things that the ipad is great at. At home, on the couch, at college etc. the iPad will blow the iPhone away. It is the goldilocks solution to many consumption use cases. I use my iPhone extensively at home on the couch because my Macbook is too cumbersome (and is plugged into too many other things to move). I use it to read/surf/game/watch/listen at home etc. The only one where it is the better choice over an iPad is listening to music (with headphones). For everything else the iPad is vastly superior. The same applies to many college uses (with the keyboard dock) and vertical market applications where the iPhone/Touch is again just too small. Accept it, there are just many use cases where the iPad is far and away the best device for the job and that those use cases are very large with a huge potential user base. There are many other use cases that the iPad will be weaker at but those will not blunt the success of these things. As it gets bigger, a Swiss army knife is gets increasingly mediocre at most of its functions. The iPad is more focused.

What I will end up doing is having an iPad on the coffee table and the iPhone will only do its non-phone stuff away from home.

Actually...yes I am aware of that, since I am an American... although I've decided to stay and play in Europe the last 20 years. I'm so Germanized... I can barely speak perfect English any more.

Regardless... I was only poking fun, and I realize the hurdles and challenges... but you ARE America!

You can find the money to bail out banks, immense car co's... and wage 2, 3 or more wars costing TRILLIONS! Ya think you people could get around the fact that your OWN infrastructure is a bit more important than Afghanistan's?!

Bring back similar incentives and programs like the Rural Electrification Act of the 30's, and put some of those out-of-a-job techis, construction workers, etc to work for a while. Lease the lines/towers back to the Telcos at a small but respectable profit for a decade or 2... whatever it takes.

You guys NEED bandwidth available everywhere! Yesterday!

OK. I realise you are playing stupid just to wind me up but I'll give you one for free - try reading a full page of script in portrait mode on a laptop; while standing up, in a field. Now flick to the new revisions on page 20 and hand it across to 'the talent' to have a quick look; now.........

That's not very nice, I don't think he was playing stupid at all - I couldn't imagine what would be done on set of a TV show with a tablet. I assumed the actors learned the script.

I have multitasking enabled on my iphone(s) as well as a bevy of other non Apple approved(Cydia)applications running natively and they all perform efficiently and add tremendous functionality to the device without affecting the battery or the processor.

The ipad is MORE than capable of multitasking, however it doesn't fall within Steve's vision, nor does Flash. I am now doubtful that we will see true multitasking in 4.0 and that worries me. I think by now it's pretty clear we will never see Flash either device.

lets talk in a yr asshole

multi tasking takes place in the back ground right now on all apple devices

true multi tasking will be here soon with 2 or 3 gpu chip designs and mega farms and mega fiber being lit

2014 may be the year when you watch a streamed movie while talking on the phone
while rendering 60 photos and uplinking the same photos to the clouds .

flash slows us all down ..

I'm not a nice person. Your ignorance is not my problem.

Wow, that's impressive.

Actually, I wasn't trying to wind anyone up, I was asking a question to find out what use this thing could have. Thanks for the freebie though, generous today huh?

My thoughts exactly.

It always impresses me how tough some people seem to think they are on the internet!

hey he just watched a climt east wood movie !! vinnie is one bad dude >> watch out !!!

all joking aside vinnie having a bad hair day
or his pad fell down

forgive him

peace 9

i have kept every bit of every electronic device since day one
including dozens of chargers and cords wires lap tops tvs on and on

one day in staten island i hope to fing a green place to give all this toxic junk to
in the hope that it is properly re cycled

i applaud you concerrn
the picture of 8 yr old kids mining old laptops makes me sick

and apple is almost 100 percent cradle to grave
ALMOSTY

This is going to be HUGE! Maybe not this year or next year, but very soon. Why all the hate? I see this as my portable entertainment device. People will actually look forward to the "Hurry Up and Wait" things that modern life entails (DMV, Post Office, Doctor's Office, all kinds of things. As for portability----I already carry a purse so it will fit into my lifestyle perfectly. Can't Wait!

I predict that a lot of Income Tax Refunds (timely) will be spent at Apple and this will be the "must have" item next Christmas.

The other thing, I'm a woman and have no problem with the name. GROW UP! iPad makes perfect sense, it's short the "i" tells you its from Apple or at least Apple related, its PERF!