Wall Street expects Apple's risky iPad to sell 1M-5M in first year - Page 5

Dude, you gave us a link stating that it has no mutiltasking and then rank on somebody who stated the same thing?

don't try convince them. Really!
I would prefer to be able to order mine and receive it as soon as possible.
If letting them have their negative ideas about the ipad means I am more likely to get one during the first batch, I want them to not like it.

I also hope that shared file directory can actually be the idisk folder. It should work and then I wouldn't actually need to physically connect to sync documents.

Hit quick reply by accident

"[iPhone] just doesn't matter anymore. There are now alternatives to the iPhone, which has been introduced everywhere else in the world. It's no longer a novelty." - Eamon Hoey, Hoey and Associates, April 30, 2008

"We are not at all worried. We think we've got the one mobile platform you'll use for the rest of your life. [Apple] are not going to catch up." - Scott Rockfeld, Microsoft Mobile Communications Group Product Manager, April 01, 2008

"Microsoft, with Windows Mobile/ActiveSync, Nokia with Intellisync, and Motorola with Good Technology have all fared poorly in the enterprise. We have no reason to expect otherwise from Apple." - Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams analyst, March 07, 2008

"[Apple should sell 7.9 million iPhones in 2008]... Apple's goal of selling 10 million iPhones this year is optimistic." - Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein Research analyst, February 22, 2008

"What does the iPhone offer that other cell phones do not already offer, or will offer soon? The answer is not very much... Apples stated goal of selling 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008 seems ambitious." - Laura Goldman, LSG Capital, May 21, 2007

Motorola's then-Chairman and then-CEO Ed Zander said his company was ready for competition from Apple's iPhone, due out the following month. "How do you deal with that?" Zander was asked at the Software 2007 conference. Zander quickly retorted, "How do they deal with us?" - Ed Zander, May 10, 2007

"The iPhone is going to be nothing more than a temporary novelty that will eventually wear off." - Gundeep Hora, CoolTechZone Editor-in-Chief, April 02, 2007

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone... What Apple risks here is its reputation as a hot company that can do no wrong. If it's smart it will call the iPhone a 'reference design' and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else's marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures... Otherwise I'd advise people to cover their eyes. You are not going to like what you'll see." - John C. Dvorak, Bloated Gas Bag, March 28, 2007

"Even if [the iPhone] is opened up to third parties, it is difficult to see how the installed base of iPhones can reach the level where it becomes a truly attractive service platform for operator and developer investment." - Tony Cripps, Ovum Service Manager for Mobile User Experience, March 14, 2007

"I'm more convinced than ever that, after an initial frenzy of publicity and sales to early adopters, iPhone sales will be unspectacular... iPhone may well become Apple's next Newton." - David Haskin, Computerworld, February 26, 2007

"There's an old saying -- stick to your knitting -- and Apple is not a mobile phone manufacturer, that's not their knitting... I think people overreacted to it -- there was not a lot of tremendously new stuff if you think about it." - Greg Winn, Telstra's operations chief, February 15, 2007

"Consumers are not used to paying another couple hundred bucks more just because Apple makes a cool product. Some fans will buy [iPhone], but for the rest of us it's a hard pill to swallow just to have the coolest thing." - Neil Strother, NPD Group analyst, January 22, 2007

"I cant believe the hype being given to iPhone... I just have to wonder who will want one of these things (other than the religious faithful)... So please mark this post and come back in two years to see the results of my prediction: I predict they will not sell anywhere near the 10M Jobs predicts for 2008." - Richard Sprague, Microsoft Senior Marketing Director, January 18, 2007

"The iPhone's willful disregard of the global handset market will come back to haunt Apple." - Tero Kuittinen, RealMoney.com, January 18, 2007

"[Apple's iPhone] is the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn't appeal to business customers because it doesn't have a keyboard which makes it not a very good email machine... So, I, I kinda look at that and I say, well, I like our strategy. I like it a lot." - Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, January 17, 2007

"The iPhone is nothing more than a luxury bauble that will appeal to a few gadget freaks. In terms of its impact on the industry, the iPhone is less relevant... Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market... Apple will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won't make a long-term mark on the industry." - Matthew Lynn, Bloomberg, January 15, 2007

"iPhone which doesn't look, I mean to me, I'm looking at this thing and I think it's kind of trending against, you know, what's really going, what people are really liking on, in these phones nowadays, which are those little keypads. I mean, the Blackjack from Samsung, the Blackberry, obviously, you know kind of pushes this thing, the Palm, all these... And I guess some of these stocks went down on the Apple announcement, thinking that Apple could do no wrong, but I think Apple can do wrong and I think this is it." - John C. Dvorak, Bloated Gas Bag, January 13, 2007

"I am pretty skeptical. I dont think [iPhone] will meet the fantastic predictions I have been reading. For starters, while Apple basically established the market for portable music players, the phone market is already established, with a number of major brands. Can Apple remake the phone market in its image? Success is far from guaranteed." - Jack Gold, founder and principal analyst at J. Gold Associates, January 11, 2007

"Apple will launch a mobile phone in January, and it will become available during 2007. It will be a lovely bit of kit, a pleasure to behold, and its limited functionality will be easy to access and use. The Apple phone will be exclusive to one of the major networks in each territory and some customers will switch networks just to get it, but not as many as had been hoped. As customers start to realise that the competition offers better functionality at a lower price, by negotiating a better subsidy, sales will stagnate. After a year a new version will be launched, but it will lack the innovation of the first and quickly vanish. The only question remaining is if, when the iPod phone fails, it will take the iPod with it." - Bill Ray, The Register, December 26, 2006

"The economics of something like [an Apple iPhone] aren't that compelling." - Rod Bare, Morningstar analyst, December 08, 2006

"Apple is slated to come out with a new phone... And it will largely fail.... Sales for the phone will skyrocket initially. However, things will calm down, and the Apple phone will take its place on the shelves with the random video cameras, cell phones, wireless routers and other would-be hits... When the iPod emerged in late 2001, it solved some major problems with MP3 players. Unfortunately for Apple, problems like that don't exist in the handset business. Cell phones aren't clunky, inadequate devices. Instead, they are pretty good. Really good." - Michael Kanellos, CNET, December 07, 2006

"We've learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone. PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They're not going to just walk in." - Ed Colligan, Palm CEO, November 16, 2006

Prodigious response BTW, I just PM you

hmmm good point.

As much as I have always gone on record as Pro-Flash I totally agree with no Flash on iPhone/iPad or any proprietary touch screen devices. Reason: Flash is usually very mouse hover centric and touch screen doesn't do that. And for all the reason you say as well.

It doesn't look like anything in the US uses it.

wish we could interview all of these people today and ask the question again about the iphone, and then ask about the ipad.

Indeed and aren't those adapters mutually exclusive with the docks?

thanks

It will happen overnight. This is the fridge / kitchen computer everyone has been waiting for. This is the in car computer everyone has been waiting for. this is the computer for every place where one does not sit down - from warehouse to the Front of House in Restaurants, etc. this is a no-brainer.

The iPad is a very closed device, it offers no usb ports, no access to its own file system, there's no way I can download files to the device from the web and access them. I like the direction apple has gone with this, its just lacking some key features that could have been easily implemented, sorry, but I'm going to pass on the iPad.

The only link I read was the last one and nowhere does it indicate that apple products are more popular with women. Google harder, pls.

Edit: so I clicked through another couple. Popular yes.

Brilliant!

Where did you see this? Is that confirmed? If so, can you please provide a cite or a link?

Jobs said you could save a iWork pages document as a word file and email it to a colleague using MSWORD, so it must have some kind of filesystem, or in the cloud filesystem.

Anyone mentioned that the iPad has changeable backgrounds? Seeing how this was such a point for people to jailbreak their iPhone I thought it was an awesome addition to the OS.

That and support for wireless-n, of course.

OK, this is getting old, let me break this down once and for all. This isn't just for you, but everyone moaning about a device they haven't used

1ghz processor-Really? I thought we got past this whole "clock speed is the only thing that matters in processors" thing. Did you SEE the videos? This thing is going AMAZINGLY fast. And if the processor is only 1ghz and they are getting that, I don't see what the problem is.

Max of 64 gig storage - I think that is pretty good for something that isn't your main computer. When this comes out I am going to get a 16 gig one, as I don't need any more.

No camera - I am sorry, but why is this important? My household has 3 computers, all with built in webcams (there will be a fourth one when I get my MBP). So why does an iPad need a camera? It isn't a computer replacement and is too large to take photos or video well. And video conferencing? Sorry, but you should do that something that sits much more stable...like a laptop or a desktop...or even a netbook, but not with a tablet. It doesn't make sense. Besides, we BARELY use our webcams and I know very few that do often...just cam whores really. So Apple didn't include something that wouldn't be needed and the price got lower!

720p res - 1080p is overkill on such a small screen, most people wont be able to tell the difference. Again, a more trivial feature so it was cut out to save price. Besides, iTunes movie only go up to 720p so why should Apple sell a device that goes higher than that at the moment?

No flash - As others have said, flash is designed for mouse interface and is a resource hog. I think something like flash will come but I don't see much loss in not being able to watch Homestar Runner on my iPod touch.

No multitasking - I have not seen a mobile device do multitasking well so I don't hold Apple to do it with the iPhone OS until they can do it right. Case and point is my Blackberry. It sucks at multitasking. With only a few programs running, it begins going so slow that I have to do a battery pull. That's right, in order to reboot my phone, I have to take the battery out, wait a minute and put it back in. There is no button to do it and no first party software to do it. I have to download another program (and if my phone is running too slow, the program wont work and I have to do it manually anyways). So yeah, you can't listen to streaming radio while working on a document right now. You can still listen to your own music can't you? But this is a software fix and I have no doubt in my mind that Apple will do it and do it well. Best of all, you can actually reboot the iPhone OS devices quickly and easily! Much better than what RIM gave me.

The screen - Meh, I don't think it will be too bad, but I will conceed that some people may not like reading on it. I don't know if I will, I will have to try. But I have read on my iPod touch and I can only assume that the screen will be similar.

I think everyone needs to calm down and just relax. It is just a big iPhone. Despite what I thought could be possible, this is about what I expected and it makes perfect sense for what they had in mind. For some reason, people put this to incredibly unreal expectations and when it didn't become the second coming, they are all saying how disappointed they are. Get over yourselves. This wont be a revolution in computing, but I think it is an excellent step towards said revolution.

Every device has a file system, but not every device has file system visible to the user. Tasks such as emailing pages documents could be accomplished without an individual seeing much of the file system. However based on what I've read (and linked earlier), there will be at at least one folder visible on the iPad and on a computer when connected.

WebOS seems to do multitasking very well from what I have seen. That said, I think you are correct about Apple doing it right. There must be something to it that we obviously dont know.

Also, without some sort of ability to download/store, how do I watch movies, edit/present a Keynote, read a book......?!

Of course you can already do this in a limited way with the iPhone/touch, the files are simply limited in the way you can see them (to the apps that actually use the files). Some seem to be expecting a file system like a Mac or Windows, without describing why they'd actually need such a thing on a device of this kind. Maybe they think it's obvious, but it's not.

Mobile Safari does multitasking too.

You know, I haven't played much with the Web OS phones. If I dont' get a Verizon iPhone when my contract is up, I may check them out.

Did the stock hit 270 yet today?

The OS seems fine. Its the keyboard that bothers me. It may be standard size, I wouldnt know, just seems awful small to me.

This is going to be a massive success.

One thing that will drive that will be developers. Once real apps are create to this thing start to trickle in, then we will see the true capability of this.

Also I think multitasking might come once the new os. 4.0 arrives. Maybe there is a reason why in 2 months they will start selling this. Apple might be putting the final touches on it.
I am buying one for sure and also can't wait for the new iPhone. Good times ahead for Apple.

Now for us professionals, please MacPro and MBP updates!

If you wait a bit, I am sure it will come with 32GB for $499. Happened with the iPod touch, happened with AppleTV, happened with the Macbooks.

Wall Street not liking the iPad does not a bad product make.

As Quadra has already pointed out, most analysts didnt like the iPhone as well. And we all know what a huge failure it has been.

Dont forget this is the same Wall Street that thought housing prices would climb infinitely.

Wait until April/May.

Apple will have a tough time keeping up with demand.

Go right ahead and iCal my predicitons (or in your case, note them in Outlook.)

I'll wager about 70% of Apple forum goers are consistently wrong about Apple and its market. About nearly everything, from Apple's marketing, to "missing features" tanking a product, to Apple's sales in a recession, what they think the consumer wants (which means they're talking about what THEY want and projecting that onto everyone else), headless Macs, and a whole laundry list of additional criticisms that are not reflected in the wider market whatsoever and never will be. The reason they're here is to complain, and believe it or not, in the faint hope that (wait for it . . .) someone from Apple actually reads these forums and will in some way take their whining to heart! Or, that they can rally enough support to feel good about their wrong-headed position - because naturally, they are surrounded by like-minded complainers.

Most Apple forums goers are WRONG. They have been wrong for years now, and never actually "get" what everyone who doesn't hang out in internet forums gets without any effort. This happens every time Apple releases what they say will be a breakthrough product. Then it does spectacularly well, and these same people readjust their thinking somewhat, yet keep complaining about the same things!

Apple can sell double, triple - you name it - the number of iPhones quarter for quarter, and these same people will say: "But it won't last long", or "Apple has to hurry up and innovate" or some other nonsense. It's insane.

And it all comes down to one thing: Selfish thinking (as if their "needs" are shared by everyone) and a sense of entitlement.

Listen to Joe Average (who doesn't frequent forums and represents the vast bulk of Apple's market) for the real lowdown on Apple's products. Get out of the MS/PeeCee tech-head way of thinking.

Yes, I can probably accomplish most of these (abc or xyz) things with any netbook running Windows, and perhaps do a bit more with the same (for now.) But I'd rather not use something that looks, feels, and acts like dogshit. I kind of care about the environment in which I work. Do ya get it??

Flash is like 90% of all TV shows or streaming.


This tablet is a huge letdown.

This story sums it up well...

The Anti-Hype: Why Apples iPad Disappoints
The iPad is not the transformational device so many Apple enthusiasts were hoping for. It wont turn all the content industries upside down, it wont be your primary computing device, and its not even a bigger, better iPhone.

Apple CEO Steve Jobs introduced the iPad as a device to fill the gap between smartphones like the iPhone and high-end laptops like the MacBook and MacBook Pro. He said there needs to be a middle device, but it needs to be better than the alternatives at what it does. Netbooks currently fill the void, but according to Jobs, netbooks arent better at anything. He and his colleagues at Apple believe that the iPad is.

Apples website and promotional video call the iPad magical. Were told the iPad is the best way to experience the web, e-mail, photos, and videos. Hands down. But its not its not even close. Its mighty cool, its super convenient and its very sexy, but its not even better than a netbook at some of those things.

This isnt the middle device folks have been waiting for because and Im using Steve Jobss own criteria here its not better at anything than any other device on the market. Its a step in that direction, but the day hasnt come yet. Here are just a few of the ways the iPad isnt as magical as Apple claims.

Its Not the Best Way to Browse the Web

Steve Jobs said it needs to be a better web device than the alternatives. The Apple website says its the best way to experience the web. Some variation of that phrase is repeated several times in the promotional video Apple has released. But its just not true.

It might be one of the best ways to browse the web on a mobile device, but laptop and desktop computers even netbooks are still better. Most current websites were designed to be experienced on those devices with a mouse and a keyboard. Maybe the mouse isnt necessary, but you dont have to pop up a software keyboard to type in URLs on a netbook or laptop. Even if you lug around the keyboard dock, it will be a tad awkward moving between the keys and the screen to interact. Youre sacrificing some usability for simplicity on the iPad.

Most importantly, the iPads browser does not support Adobe Flash, the foundation of rich media on the web today. Adobe is planning to make it possible for Flash developers to develop apps, but it wont work on the web.

Ill admit that the decision not to support Flash is a logical one if you start at the right premises; Flash is responsible for countless reported crashes on Macs, and Apple cant control it to ensure quality of experience. Apple is banking on a transition to HTML5 and CSS 3 for rich web content. While that transition has already begun, it hasnt fully happened yet. Until it does, its ridiculous to call this device the best way to experience the web when one of the most ubiquitous and essential web technologies is not supported.

Its an Unprecedented Win for Closed Computing
Many of the software restrictions that drive people mad when theyre using the iPhone are going to be just as frustrating on the iPad. All the devices content apps, songs, TV shows, movies, books, you name it can only be processed through Apples iTunes Store.

You wont be able to drag and drop or share files with other computers like you can with your laptop on your home network. You wont be able to download a program or music file from the web and play it on the spot. You wont be able to use any application that doesnt meet Apples strict approval guidelines. Its closed computing at its most extreme.

Unfortunately weve come to expect that from our smartphones. For a larger device thats supposed to replace your netbook as a complete portable computing solution, though, this is almost unprecedented at least from a device thats likely to have a great deal of influence on the market and on the design of future devices. Thats bad news no matter how you spin it.

Its Not Really a Competitive eReader
The Kindle owns the eReader landscape right now, and the greatest expectation for the iPad was that it would bury the Kindle. While the iPads reader interface is indisputably sweet-looking and the list of participating publishers is promising, there are several ways it just wont beat the Kindle.

The most important issue is the price. The Kindle costs $260; so do Barnes & Nobles Nook and the comparable Sony Reader. The Kindle even comes bundled with free 3G network access, though it admittedly cant do anywhere near as much with it as the iPad can.

But if you are considering the iPad primarily as a reader, that price difference is a big problem. Also a big problem: The lack of an e-ink display. E-ink doesnt wash your face in eye-strain-inducing light like the displays on the iPhone, the iPad and laptop computers do. Its meant to be a soft experience, just like reading a book. Without e-ink, you might not be able to tolerate spending four straight hours reading Stephen Kings latest on a regular display, cool IPS tech aside.

Finally, as impressive as 10 hours of battery life is for a multi-purpose device like the iPad, the Kindle can run in reading mode for a week without recharging longer if Wi-Fi is disabled. Because its trying to do everything, the iPad isnt the best at anything.


Its Not Worth It If You Have a Smartphone and Laptop

If the iPad isnt a good option as a middle device, it ought to at least be attractive to power users and enthusiasts who already have other devices. Unfortunately, its not.

Its not significantly better at anything than either your iPhone or your MacBook. It cant be used as your daily workhorse computer on the go, because just like the iPhones OS 3.1.2 the iPads OS 3.2 doesnt multitask. And if you already have an iPhone, you can do basic information gathering, mapping, and so on while youre on the go without spending an additional $29.99 per month for 3G service.

Furthermore, your laptop or netbook very likely has a web cam for video conferencing, and your cell phone probably has a camera (or even video camera) for capturing images. The iPad has neither.

Since the interface is graceful and satisfying, you might want to buy it as an extra device just for the experience, but at between $499 $829, thats not practical for most consumers.

The Anti-Hype
The iPad isnt going to be a phenomenon with either netbook users or power users. Its not better than existing devices at anything, and its too expensive for most people to use it as a secondary device. I might have said something different if the rumors that the iPad would be all about a new push in the content marketplace were true, but that didnt happen. Instead, we got a cool toy.

In addition, people that don't understand that flash is more than 90% of all media content and Macs have a problem with it.

Well I am willing to bet you it hits 170.00 before it hits 270.00. Taking aside what the iPad can and can't do the problem is the hype was so out of control for this product there was no way Apple could produce something that would live up to the hype or for that matter the unrealistic expectations of Apple users. This is a common issue for Apple time and time again.

Steve Jobs needs to stop making everything top secret and stop being paranoid about everyone stealing his thunder or ideas. The fact is the iPad really isnt any different then what HP or MSI introduced already this year.

Apple also needs to understand not everyone in fact most do not live in an all Apple world and stop being stubborn about things like Flash. However I still stand by the fact the biggest downfall to this product is it has a processor more then powerful enough to multi-task yet the software is behind the hardware. There was no great new UI and to me the product seems rushed.

I do believe the iPad can do well but like the Touch its going to take time to catch on. It also appears its going to take time for the software to catch up to the hardware.

You can not put this in the same catagory as the iPhone because the iPhone in spite of what some said filled a very clear need. That is not so clear with this product.

The product did not even come close to meeting the hype which is why the stock dropped 4% today and is why Apple stock has not moved in over three months.

The problem isn't just the analysts the problem is most users see this as a letdown. This product did not even come close to living up to the hype.

It will, my friend, in good time. When cash flow expectations rise to justify that level, not when analysts hyperventilate.

But losers wouldn't know.........

Actually it doesn't. It sums up the perceptions of the device on the internet well. The internet said the iPhone and the iPod were terrible.

PS: Link to the article next time, don't fill the board with that spam.

What hype? The hype you invented in your own mind?

Heh heh. My slight worry is most analysts - at least the ones quoted in the article, if anyone actually read it - seem to like the product!

(I am in the '90% like' camp, enough to tip me over in the direction of a purchase; I have no doubt though, that V2 will come out within the year, with twice the storage and much more functionality).

My floor says it will be great. The table lamp is excited, too.

So what?

Some people might actually see that, if your prediction came true, there's a lot of money to be made!