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Despite sales growth, Apple's iPhone loses market share - report

post #1 of 158
Thread Starter 
Though iPhone sales grew 18 percent in the fourth quarter, the overall market saw even greater growth, leaving Apple with a smaller market share during the holiday season, a new study has found.

The data from ABI Research, via The Wall Street Journal, shows that Apple's smartphone market share dropped from 18.1 percent in the third quarter of 2009 to 16.6 percent in the fourth quarter. This despite the fact that Apple sold 8.7 million iPhones in the fourth quarter -- an 18 percent increase from the previous quarter, and Apple's best quarter ever in terms of total sales.

However, as noted by similar research from Strategy Analytics, Apple also saw a year-over-year increase in market share, growing from 10.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 to an estimated 16.4 percent at the end of 2009 -- just 0.2 percent off from the ABI Research findings.

ABI's Michael Morgan told the Journal that the iPhone could be suffering a case of "Razr burn," referring to Motorola's popular cell phone which dominated the sales charts for years but lost favor when its design went unchanged. But the report quickly discredited that notion.

"That of course is a little rich," the report said of Morgan's commentary. "The California device maker still enjoys profit margins among the industrys highest. And the attention it commands is unrivaled (see the frenzy around the iPad unveiling last week)."

The overall smartphone market grew 26 percent in the fourth quarter, according to ABI, thanks to increased sales of Google's Android mobile operating system and Nokia increasing sales by 4.6 million. The quarter also saw the high-profile introduction of the Motorola Droid smartphone.

"2009 may have started with a whimper but by (the fourth quarter of) 2009 the global mobile handset market ended with a pretty reasonable bang," said Jake Saunders, vice president for forecasting at ABI Research. "We estimate 336.5 million handsets were shipped in 4Q-2009, up 15.1 percent (quarter over quarter)."

Nokia remains the overall mobile phone dominant market leader with 37.7 percent, though its share of the smartphone market has dropped significantly in recent years. Nokia and Apple are currently engaged in a number of lawsuits filed in court and with the International Trade Commission over allegations of patent infringement on both parties behalves.



In second place was Samsung, which captured 20.5 percent of the global phone market in the fourth quarter of 2009. LG took 10.1 percent; Sony-Ericsson was in fourth with 4.3 percent; and Motorola took 3.6 percent. Despite its significant slice of the much-smaller smartphone market, Apple did not register in the top five of total mobile phone sales.
post #2 of 158
Verizon's calling....................don't be stupid Apple.......
post #3 of 158
Sort the camera out and add a flash, make sure you don't run out of iPhones so get your supply levels right, and get on more carriers.

There are a lot of copycats out there that will add additional features to make their phones seem better, that's usually rubbish - but Apple really need to focus on the camera, it's a weakness and something people pick up on a lot! I'm not saying the camera is the most important thing, but there are many other who think it is!
post #4 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Nokia remains the overall mobile phone dominant market leader with 37.7 percent

Everyone uses all of Nokia's "convergence devices" - smartphones and mobile computers - in calculating their market share. Nokia also breaks out their Eseries and Nseries phones - 10.7 million this quarter, 8.9 million last quarter - which is their smart phones.

If someone thinks I am wrong - please point out why.

http://www.nokia.com/about-nokia/fin...mation/q4-2009
post #5 of 158
I know that many Americans would love a CDMA iPhone, but the rest of planet earth is happy with GSM, with multiple carriers in many countries the growth should explode in 2010!

No point making a CDMA phone really, not enough market for it.
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post #6 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

ABI's Michael Morgan told the Journal that the iPhone could be suffering a case of "Razr burn," referring to Motorola's popular cell phone which dominated the sales charts for years but lost favor when its design went unchanged. But the report quickly discredited that notion.

"That of course is a little rich," the report said of Morgan's commentary.

Actually that is not too far fetch or too "rich"... I don't own any of the three previous iPhone models but I would be curious what Apple/Steve Jobs means regarding the next iPhone will be A+ upgrade to see if there is some different form factor or what Apple has in mind. Of course there is only so much one can do I guess when it comes to designing a phone that needs a touchscreen to operate the phone and associated apps that come with it or are purchased via the app store.

But I am willing to wait and see what Steve has up his sleeve regarding any iPhone redesign and whether there will be multiple US Cellular Carriers! Who knows maybe this iPhone revision will cause me to jump ship of my "just a phone" to a "smart phone"! Maybe...

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post #7 of 158
Poor Apple has to cope with being lumped into the other category.

If they're sensible they'll see to it that they start showing in the overall market share spots as well.

In their original (2007) intro of the phone they talked about the value (or a goal) of %1 of overall market share, but I'd be interested to know what they are now. On this reading it must be something less than 3.6% overall.
post #8 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

I know that many Americans would love a CDMA iPhone, but the rest of planet earth is happy with GSM, with multiple carriers in many countries the growth should explode in 2010!

No point making a CDMA phone really, not enough market for it.

That's one of the silliest things I've read today.
post #9 of 158
and soon I hope. It will be interesting to see what SJ thinks an A+ upgrade amounts to. Start the rumors.
post #10 of 158
The comparison with the razr is of course completely spurious. It was popular because of the form-factor, the OS was as shit as always. The iPhone is a platform and functionality increases hour by hour. What the figures show is that there is still a huge potential upside for Apple as people move into the (loosely defined) smartphone market.
post #11 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by LouisTheXIV View Post

Verizon's calling....................don't be stupid Apple.......

In your dreams. Not going to happen. Please get off the strupid Verizon kick, will you.

And yes, Apple is doomed, DOOMED I tell you!
post #12 of 158
Selling the iPhone on Verizon won't help with marketshare against all phones.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LouisTheXIV View Post

Verizon's calling....................don't be stupid Apple.......
post #13 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post

That's one of the silliest things I've read today.

I don't suppose you'd like to quantify your remark? Why would they spend time and resources making a phone that would only ship to one carrier in the US when they can build just one device that works in any country in the world, why introduce a phone that can only be used in the US and can't even be taken on holiday with you?
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post #14 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

I don't suppose you'd like to quantify your remark? Why would they spend time and resources making a phone that would only ship to one carrier in the US when they can build just one device that works in any country in the world, why introduce a phone that can only be used in the US and can't even be taken on holiday with you?

Good luck getting a sensible answer. American centrism dominates 50% of the population here. That half don't think outside the box ... or perhaps just don't think. Sorry, I am rarely contentious, I will await the flames lol.
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post #15 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

I don't suppose you'd like to quantify your remark? Why would they spend time and resources making a phone that would only ship to one carrier in the US when they can build just one device that works in any country in the world, why introduce a phone that can only be used in the US and can't even be taken on holiday with you?

Because, despite the fact that the iPhone has good worldwide sales, the truth of the matter is that the majority of iPhones sold are *still* from the U.S. To take this even further then, why deny the LARGEST CARRIER IN THE US the potential to DOUBLE APPLE'S SALES?

I'm just amazed that ANYONE would think adding VZW is a bad idea. If you don't like it, then don't buy it. It's that simple.

w00master
post #16 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeymantle View Post

and soon I hope. It will be interesting to see what SJ thinks an A+ upgrade amounts to. Start the rumors.

A4 processer was the first thing that came to my mind.
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post #17 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by w00master View Post

Because, despite the fact that the iPhone has good worldwide sales, the truth of the matter is that the majority of iPhones sold are *still* from the U.S. To take this even further then, why deny the LARGEST CARRIER IN THE US the potential to DOUBLE APPLE'S SALES?

I'm just amazed that ANYONE would think adding VZW is a bad idea. If you don't like it, then don't buy it. It's that simple.

w00master

Currently you're correct regarding overall sales but that is not likely to last for long, international sales are rapidly growing.

Consider Apples business model, currently they build one iPhone, they are all made in Asia somewhere, when a new iPhone comes out they have trouble matching demand, as it stands right now they place an order and the device can be shipped anywhere, your suggestion will split resources.

On top of that you will now have two iPhones on the Market, it will cause confusion, people will buy the phone and then in 1-2 years won't be able to move (remember most people see a phone as a phone, CDMA gsm etc means nothing to them) why split your product line.

I accept that America tends to move behind the rest of the world in terms of phones, it took America years to move to digital, years to bring out SMS and even longer to start accepting the gsm standard.

In a short sighted view you are correct, in the long term you are not and I bet apple is looking at the long term.
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post #18 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by w00master View Post

Because, despite the fact that the iPhone has good worldwide sales, the truth of the matter is that the majority of iPhones sold are *still* from the U.S. To take this even further then, why deny the LARGEST CARRIER IN THE US the potential to DOUBLE APPLE'S SALES?

I'm just amazed that ANYONE would think adding VZW is a bad idea. If you don't like it, then don't buy it. It's that simple.

w00master

I agree. While it might cost a large fortune to create a CDMA phone, and it's only market would be one carrier in the US, and only for a couple of years, that's still hundreds of millions in profits.

I expect that if Verizon and Apple could come to terms, the phone is already designed and ready for production.
post #19 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by w00master View Post

I'm just amazed that ANYONE would think adding VZW is a bad idea. If you don't like it, then don't buy it. It's that simple.

w00master

I strongly believe that nobody at Apple would loose one second of sleep over this information.

Apple is a leader, not a follower, and their goal is not to sell the most phones (or computers, iPads etc.) but to sell products that make customers happy.

Apple has its strategy set out for years to come and I am convinced that they are right on track. So, no, I don't believe that they will add VZW just to become number 1 in sales. I would be very disappointed in Apple if I would see a VZW phone come June.
post #20 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post

That's one of the silliest things I've read today.

That as it may, it is also one the truest things I've read today. Almost NOBODY uses CDMA, and it doesn't really have any resale value.
post #21 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

I don't suppose you'd like to quantify your remark? Why would they spend time and resources making a phone that would only ship to one carrier in the US when they can build just one device that works in any country in the world, why introduce a phone that can only be used in the US and can't even be taken on holiday with you?

We recall of course that Apple allegedly brought the iPhone to Verizon first - which means at that moment Apple was prepared to either A) build a CDMA-only phone for the Verizon network, or B) build a "world phone" device with full GSM/CDMA supporting chipset. The second seems more likely. So at the time there was not a worldphone chipset that did not suck battery life down rapidly. That has changed with the introduction of Qualcomm's multistandard chipsets based on their Snapdragon platform. These chipsets combine GSM/CDMA standards into one unit on a smaller nm footprint with significantly lower power demand, and supporting all the usual features: integrated HSPA+, GPS, Bluetooth, full high definition video recording and playback, Wi-Fi and mobile TV technologies.

IF Apple likes the chip technology offered by Qualcomm (over and above their own PASemi chips for example) then this becomes a practical approach. The question is not whether Apple can do it - I'm willing to bet they have had at least a CDMA prototype in operation in the labs since the beginning. The question is if they WANT to do it.
post #22 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

I don't suppose you'd like to quantify your remark? Why would they spend time and resources making a phone that would only ship to one carrier in the US when they can build just one device that works in any country in the world, why introduce a phone that can only be used in the US and can't even be taken on holiday with you?

It's still not a good device to "take on holiday", unless you pay a lot of money, Apple sells mostly locked phones, and AT&T's international plans are expensive and starved. It is possible to jailbreak and try to get an in-country SIM, but then I bet I'm going to hear shrill screams of "thief" at that mention.

Outside of that, what I keep reading is that you want to just buy an inexpensive phone while out of the country anyway, so what you use in your own country doesn't matter.
post #23 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by w00master View Post

Because, despite the fact that the iPhone has good worldwide sales, the truth of the matter is that the majority of iPhones sold are *still* from the U.S. To take this even further then, why deny the LARGEST CARRIER IN THE US the potential to DOUBLE APPLE'S SALES?

I'm just amazed that ANYONE would think adding VZW is a bad idea. If you don't like it, then don't buy it. It's that simple.

w00master

w00, with Asia Pacific representing fully one third of the world's population, Verizon's user base shrinks to relative insigificance comparatively. Apple has to balance it's efforts on a global scale, not just US concerns. Given the sustained growth world-wide, we here in the US have to get used to the unsettling concept that while we are currently the richest most influential nation, we are effectively only ONE nation, and wider regional markets like AP are where the most growth will take place in the the next decades. Apple is forward-looking enough to recognize that and develop to a global, not US-only strategy.
post #24 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by masternav View Post

w00, with Asia Pacific representing fully one third of the world's population, Verizon's user base shrinks to relative insigificance comparatively. Apple has to balance it's efforts on a global scale, not just US concerns. Given the sustained growth world-wide, we here in the US have to get used to the unsettling concept that while we are currently the richest most influential nation, we are effectively only ONE nation, and wider regional markets like AP are where the most growth will take place in the the next decades. Apple is forward-looking enough to recognize that and develop to a global, not US-only strategy.

it really shouldn't be that big of a deal to have an alternate model that has a different G3 chip, it's not like it would be a from a ground up redesign, but rather just another variation that could sell an extra 5 to 10 million phones in a year.
post #25 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by LTMP View Post

I agree. While it might cost a large fortune to create a CDMA phone, and it's only market would be one carrier in the US, and only for a couple of years, that's still hundreds of millions in profits.

I expect that if Verizon and Apple could come to terms, the phone is already designed and ready for production.

Add to that, the US isn't even half the CDMA market by number of subscribers.

I don't expect that there is a design ready to go, but I expect that if it were to happen, it would still be very profitable.
post #26 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by LTMP View Post

I agree. While it might cost a large fortune to create a CDMA phone, and it's only market would be one carrier in the US, and only for a couple of years, that's still hundreds of millions in profits.

I expect that if Verizon and Apple could come to terms, the phone is already designed and ready for production.

I'd think it would be many billions. Even after LTE is in full swing their still going to use CDMA for voice so I'd expect 5-10 years out of it.


PS: I didn't read the blogs of the event but i knew Verizon wasn't announced as a future carrier because the stock didn't jump $10+/share that day.
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post #27 of 158
Come on Apple. If they go multi-carrier in USA, I'm pretty sure their numbers would increase exponentially. A lot of people want the iPhone but not ATT. I hope this is the year Apple breaks its exclusivity. And not just with Verizon but Sprint and T-Mobile too.
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post #28 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by masternav View Post

We recall of course that Apple allegedly brought the iPhone to Verizon first - which means at that moment Apple was prepared to either A) build a CDMA-only phone for the Verizon network, or B) build a "world phone" device with full GSM/CDMA supporting chipset. The second seems more likely. So at the time there was not a worldphone chipset that did not suck battery life down rapidly. That has changed with the introduction of Qualcomm's multistandard chipsets based on their Snapdragon platform. These chipsets combine GSM/CDMA standards into one unit on a smaller nm footprint with significantly lower power demand, and supporting all the usual features: integrated HSPA+, GPS, Bluetooth, full high definition video recording and playback, Wi-Fi and mobile TV technologies.

IF Apple likes the chip technology offered by Qualcomm (over and above their own PASemi chips for example) then this becomes a practical approach. The question is not whether Apple can do it - I'm willing to bet they have had at least a CDMA prototype in operation in the labs since the beginning. The question is if they WANT to do it.

the story back then was that apple only wanted 1% of the global phone market. after verizon refused them and they fixed all the complaints with the iphone 3g sales skyrocketed.
post #29 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

It's still not a good device to "take on holiday", unless you pay a lot of money, Apple sells mostly locked phones, and AT&T's international plans are a expensive and starved. It is possible to jailbreak and try to get an in-country SIM, but then I bet I'm going to hear shrill screams of "thief".

Outside of that, what I keep reading is that you want to just buy an inexpensive phone while out of the country anyway, so what you use in your own country doesn't matter.

True enough Jeff - but have you tried to take a Verizon phone on vacation overseas? There are no good means of moving seamlessly around the world, without substituting a prepaid local card/phone - therein lays the serious issue - getting the various carriers to be more transparent about transferring control back and forth without gouging on the fees.
post #30 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

A4 processer was the first thing that came to my mind.

Seems a bit strong for the iPhone / Touch, unless the screen resolution changes, and the iPad would be losing ground here.

But a custom Apple chip is sure welcome and expected !
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post #31 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by masternav View Post

True enough Jeff - but have you tried to take a Verizon phone on vacation overseas? There are no good means of moving seamlessly around the world, without substituting a prepaid local

Then again, the majority of Americans do not have a passport and do not vacation overseas.
post #32 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

Consider Apples business model, currently they build one iPhone, they are all made in Asia somewhere, when a new iPhone comes out they have trouble matching demand, as it stands right now they place an order and the device can be shipped anywhere, your suggestion will split resources.

I believe they are already doing some custom stuff for China, although it is in the WiFi area, so why not add a CDMA for the americans
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post #33 of 158
Maybe a lot of people just like having real keyboards on their phone.
post #34 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by shubidua View Post

I believe they are already doing some custom stuff for China, although it is in the WiFi area, so why not add a CDMA for the americans


you have to fork the OS, code the software for the new radio, change the code when bugs are found, etc. Android originally came out for GSM as well and it took a lot of work by Motorola to build a CDMA network stack
post #35 of 158
Another thought about the verizon topic. When I watched the iPad presentation, I found it kind of awkward the way they announced the data plan options. Maybe it is just me, but Steve seemed very reluctant to pronounce AT&T as the service provider.

So I think there might be a chance that apple is waiting until the exclusivity is over and will then announce the Verizon iPhone. I am not sure it is worth the effort for the iPad as it is a stand alone device.
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post #36 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by benice View Post

Poor Apple has to cope with being lumped into the other category.

If they're sensible they'll see to it that they start showing in the overall market share spots as well.

In their original (2007) intro of the phone they talked about the value (or a goal) of %1 of overall market share, but I'd be interested to know what they are now. On this reading it must be something less than 3.6% overall.

On the contrary, if they're sensible Apple will resist the temptation of trying to be "all things to all men" (like Google with the Android platform) too quickly.

IMHO, their gradually emerging strategy should proceed pretty much as it is now, with product placement and price diversification targeting achievable and sustainable steps.

I think it's only a matter of time before the "iPod Nano-esque" lower-end strategy is replicated in the iPhone world. As a matter of fact, the iPhone 3G, which can now be obtained pretty much for free on basic carrier price plans worldwide, is already evidence of this.
post #37 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post

you have to fork the OS, code the software for the new radio, change the code when bugs are found, etc. Android originally came out for GSM as well and it took a lot of work by Motorola to build a CDMA network stack

I didn't know that, thanks for the info.

How much stuff needs to be changed ? I don't know much about the way phones work, I thought the chip would do all the stuff particular to its network and the software just works with some kind of data stream.
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post #38 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianloftus View Post

Everyone uses all of Nokia's "convergence devices" - smartphones and mobile computers - in calculating their market share. Nokia also breaks out their Eseries and Nseries phones - 10.7 million this quarter, 8.9 million last quarter - which is their smart phones.

If someone thinks I am wrong - please point out why.

http://www.nokia.com/about-nokia/fin...mation/q4-2009

You are wrong because not all Nokia's smartphones are E or N series. There are plenty of S60 (Symbian) phones, i.e. 5800 touch phone, that are not included. Just get over it, Apple is a niche player.

Oh, and in Q4 Nokia's smartphone market share was up 5%. In UK you can now get a Nokia smartphone with free GPS voice navigation for less than 99 Pounds as pre-paid, no contract. Apple has a hard time competing with that.
post #39 of 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post

the story back then was that apple only wanted 1% of the global phone market. after verizon refused them and they fixed all the complaints with the iphone 3g sales skyrocketed.

Verizon with its minority share in terms of worldwide technology adoption but its solid presence in the USA in terms of subscribers would have represented the perfect opportunity for Apple to "test the waters" for its fledgling mobile device.

However, the uncertainty is over, the iPhone is a raging torrent of popularity and success, and so the point is moot.

But what a great fillip it would have given Verizon, and even greater incentive and impetus in the rollout of 4G/LTE with the best of the new-generation handsets in tow...
post #40 of 158
If adding CDMA was SO impossible, then explain why there are hundreds of choices for CDMA based phones now? The phone component is a small chunk of the iPhone. The main OS is what costs the most in development. Designing the hardware pales in comparison. The clone companies churn them out daily.

Apple could EASILY put a CDMA chipset instead of a GSM chipset inside the phone. The downside is that it would require 2 separate models to be on the market. Not a huge deal, but slightly confusing, although people are already used to phones being tied to a carrier the way it is.

The best solution though, would be a wold phone that had both CDMA and GSM capabilities. This is possible now, and would likely be the route that Apple would take to make this happen.
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