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Apple seen moving 2M iPads in 2010 before sales 'catalyst' emerges

post #1 of 163
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Though it has great future potential, Apple's newly announced multitouch iPad will see a moderate sales start, and most purchases will be at the cost of iPod touch sales, a new analysis has projected.

In a note to investors issued Wednesday morning, analyst Charlie Wolf With Needham & Company said he believes Apple will sell two million iPads in fiscal 2010, with over half of those sales coming at the expense of the iPod touch. He expects another six million sales in 2011.

Wolf noted that the demand for iPods and iPhones did not accelerate until "the arrival of a catalyst" for each of the products. For the iPod, it was the opening of the iTunes Music Store and porting of the media suite to Windows in 2003. And for the iPhone, it was the release of the software development kit and opening of the App Store in 2008.

What the catalyst will be for the iPad, Wolf said, remains to be seen.

"The long-term trajectory of iPad sales is unlikely to be revealed in the first 18 months after its introduction this spring," he wrote. "If the analogy with the iPod and iPhone holds up, history suggests, then, that a hockey stick in sales is unlikely to occur before fiscal 2012, which is beyond our forecast period."

Wolf sees the iPad having the greatest chances of success in the education and healthcare markets. He envisions students accessing their texbooks via an iPad, and doctors and nurses carrying around a wealth of relevant information via the 1.5-pound device. One recent report suggested some hospitals were looking at the iPad as a potential tool, while major textbook publishers have signed with application developer ScrollMotion to adapt textbooks to an electronic format.

A more challenging market for Apple to crack is general business. But Wolf sees hope there, as the iPhone is currently being evaluated for deployment at most Fortune 200 companies. In addition, sources have told AppleInsider that Apple is targeting the iPad at business users with features designed to make it attractive for the enterprise market.

But the largest potential market for the iPad is home users, where it will likely target netbook users. With a starting price of $499, Wolf believes Apple will appeal to users who are interested in using a device solely to access the Internet.



With the iPad forecast to cut into iPod touch sales, its projected net revenue contribution to Apple is relatively small, with just 1.2 percent in 2010 and another 2.7 percent in 2011. Needham & Company has maintained earnings per share estimates of $12.85 in 2010 and $15.25 in 2011 with a price target of $235.
post #2 of 163
Those apps should sell quite a few of the pads even without Wolfe's "killer app".

2 million a year I think is really low even just with today's apps.

Time will tell.
post #3 of 163
I think they are grossly underestimating the impact of this device and it's entry level price point. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Apple sells close to 10 million in the first year. Nor do I think it will have a significant impact on iPod Touch sales either; those numbers will continue to increase. For the price of a MacBook Pro I'm going to be buying my family three right at the start. Even my 80 year old father is asking me about one.
post #4 of 163
Well, I believe this fits the topic.



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People are lovers, basically. -- Engadget livebloggers at the iPad mini event.

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post #5 of 163
Another day, another opinion. Only time will tell.

I don't see this eating significantly into iPod Touch sales - nor do Apple, or I don't think they'd have launched the device. The iPod Touch is primarily a portable music player and this is why most people buy it, which the iPad can never be used for - unless you've got very large pockets.

I disagree that the iPhone and iPod touch didn't take off until the release of the SDK and App store. The iPod touch was simply a must-have upgrade to the iPod line, and the iPhone a cell-phone for the iPod generation. It didn't need a sales 'catalyst', but it must continue to evolve and innovate (or at least to seen to be innovating) in order to maintain or grow it's current market position.
post #6 of 163
Altho I think the iPad is revolutionary in its aims of selling an appliance to a different demographic, because multi-touch and Apps were already introduced and sampled on the iPhone/iPod touch and because of the Apple brand Halo factor, the iPad will not be as slow as either the iPod or iPhone out of the gate.

So I think the iPad will sell well from its launch date, but another catalyst for the iPad will be iPad-specific Apps beyond iWork. That could be in March/April or sometime later; Apple hasn't said.
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post #7 of 163
The iPad wil be flying off shelves. The kind of promotion it's getting already is absolutely crazy.

And Hollywood's picked it up, thanks to Colbert and the Grammys. The iPad will be *the* device to have, no foolin.
post #8 of 163
The 5 people I questioned all said they weren't going to buy an iPad. So I don't think Apple will sell any units in 2010.
post #9 of 163
I think they underestimate the appeal of the iPad. I imagine it will become the new home laptop. It may eat into all sorts of other sales but more than anything it will allow people to get a cheap home computer that truly is easy to use, and at a great price.I think it will become a 'new' addition more than it will cannibalize. I can even see people finding all sorts of dedicated uses for it such as a dedicated itunes / music / radio player, and as the storage capacity increases, also a video player. As a first computer for kids it is perfect, etc etc.
post #10 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by steviet02 View Post

The 5 people I questioned all said they weren't going to buy an iPad. So I don't think Apple will sell any units in 2010.

Nah, I asked a guy I work with and he said he was getting one. So I think it'll sell really well.
post #11 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by Object-X View Post

I think they are grossly underestimating the impact of this device and it's entry level price point. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Apple sells close to 10 million in the first year. Nor do I think it will have a significant impact on iPod Touch sales either; those numbers will continue to increase. For the price of a MacBook Pro I'm going to be buying my family three right at the start. Even my 80 year old father is asking me about one.

Hey what's with the 'even', you think 80 is passed it? lol. My 86 year old father is standing by to order his he tells me. He has a new 27" iMac i7 but feels the iPad will be great when sitting in an arm chair or going to bed early to read.
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post #12 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by steviet02 View Post

The 5 people I questioned all said they weren't going to buy an iPad. So I don't think Apple will sell any units in 2010.

Wow, that is a good scientific study. You should become an analyst!
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
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post #13 of 163
Anecdotal evidence: I polled my class of 31 students this Monday (they own 23 iPhones and 8 Android devices and netbooks/laptops now). All of them want to get one and 29 said they would order immediately without reconsidering it. Absolutely everybody I have met in the last week wants one and most said they will go for the 32 GB model with 3G... From what I see, this will sell like hotcakes. If they can make enough of them, I see 8-10 million in 2010. Easily.
post #14 of 163
WHY the iPad will be a HUGE SUCCESS and will truly change the way people use "mobile" computers.

So many pundits, bloggers and ANALysts are really missing the elephant in the room.

"Oh, it's just a big iPod Touch".
"No one really needs this".
"The market segment is not defined" .blah blah blah

It's 100% the Operating System and the User Interface.

Complete computer illiterate's will be able to pick one up and just use it.
The iPhone and iPod installed base is just a small piece of the market.
And when the Apps, specific to this platform take off, millions will be sold.
Wait till you see the New Apple iPad commercials, showing off Apps.

Fast forward to Jan 2012

If Windows and Linux do not begin a complete re-write, from the ground-up, of what a "native touch operating system" IS (ex. iPhone OS), Apple will have a five year head-start on All other operating systems (as it pertains to "a true, intuitive, mature, simple, yet Powerful touch UI). I am no genius but I'll bet my house that what you see in this video will NEVER EVER succeed "touch-wise"....EVER!! (http://www.engadget.com/2010/02/01/e...t-strictly-me/)

Android looks like it might be the only remaining competitor to Apple, OS-wise, but which company is even setup to deliver the the complete product?
post #15 of 163
Almost everything new (products, trends, etc.) follows the classic s-curve of adoption in three phases: early adopters, mass acceptance, saturation. So we're really not getting any insights from this analyst, he's just parroting the obvious.
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post #16 of 163
I saw a TV ad last night for a health care/pharma company that featured several doctors/nurses standing in hallways. Each and everyone one of them was clutching a legal pad, a chart, even one holding a laptop. I immediately saw all these repositories of information replaced by shiny iPads.
post #17 of 163
Industry analysts seem to have a knack for getting it wrong, perhaps because so many of them seem to lack common sense. Would I buy a iPad instead of an iPod touch. Not very likely. I have a touch and it's a very different beast. It slips into my pocket and goes with me everywhere. I'm more likely to leave home having forgotten my cell phone than my trusty touch. I use my touch a lot traveling and out on walks to listen to podcasts. I can't imagine myself doing that with an iPad. I'd look silly.

I'm thinking about getting an iPad late in 2010, but it won't be as a touch replacement. The beast is far too big to carry with me everywhere. In the short-term it won't replace anything except perhaps books. The work apps on my MacBook (such as Scrivener) don't yet exist on an iPad. In the long term, if enough writing/working apps migrate to the iPad, it still probably won't substitute for a laptop, it'll just delay how often I upgrade. And in the end, Apple will probably get more money out of me rather than less.
post #18 of 163
This thing will sell better than the 3M Ergo Audrey Internet Appliance! Guaranteed!

I'm getting one. Perfect match for my 27" iMac. I sold my MBP last month knowing that (for me) having a notebook was no longer in my future with an iPad like device.


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post #19 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by steviet02 View Post

The 5 people I questioned all said they weren't going to buy an iPad. So I don't think Apple will sell any units in 2010.

Every technophobe, or household/low-level computer user (email, web, music only) that i've spoken to has said their getting one.

I don't know an IT pro who has said "absolutely getting one", but I guess that's not where this device is aimed.

I actually think demand will be so high we'll end up with delays and issues due to stock levels and suppliers matching demand.
post #20 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by BuffyzDead View Post

Complete computer illiterate's will be able to pick one up and just use it.

Really? Are you sure about that? You cannot use an iPad without already owning a Mac or PC computer, and having a WiFi network at home (people are not going to buy the 3G model to use solely at home). How do you expect to get anything into it without having a computer, and knowing how to operate said computer? How is a computer illiterate going to be able to get on the internet if they are too stupid to know how to set up a WiFi network to make it work? They might be able to tap a few icons, but they won't be able to do anything with it. Nice try.

The iPad is NOT something that can replace a computer. Most iPhone and laptop owners will have no interest in the iPod Touch Grande. I would rather use a laptop and have a COMPLETE internet experience, without the hobbled iPad. Also, the iPad doesn't fit well as a family device since it does not offer multiple user login.
post #21 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by nkhm View Post


I actually think demand will be so high we'll end up with delays and issues due to stock levels and suppliers matching demand.

i completely agree with this statement. I think there will be shortages from day 1. Lines around the block at the Apple stores. Youtube unboxing frenzy, geeks swooning and fainting and the gnashing of teeth from those that couldn't get one.
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post #22 of 163
'catalyst', what catalyst? the catalyst that will make the iPad a runaway success from the get-go IS the instant availability of approx. 140'000 apps [give or take]!

aside from the iPhone/iPodTouch on the small form factor side, there has never been a 'nearly full sized' mobile device with such über-flexible-instant-out-of-the-box configurability!

the age of tablet-computing has finally arrived, and apple has a most serious head start with it's iPad/AppStore/iBookStore/iTunes closed loop package.
post #23 of 163
My guess is Steve Jobs is going to enable RENTING of e-books on the iPad.


This is why the publishers need a higher price shift for purchasing.


Steve plans on selling iPads to schools en massé, instead of students carrying a bunch of heavy books around, they will have a thin iPad in their notebooks with will be uploaded with books rented by schools, cheaper than purchasing the books.

Also newspapers and other forms of disposable media.

The publishers save 50% of their costs with e-books over traditional books and the schools will save money as they can get volume licensing.

Steve can sell a lot of iPads. Everyone wins.
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post #24 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inkling View Post

Industry analysts seem to have a knack for getting it wrong, perhaps because so many of them seem to lack common sense. Would I buy a iPad instead of an iPod touch. Not very likely. I have a touch and it's a very different beast. It slips into my pocket and goes with me everywhere. I'm more likely to leave home having forgotten my cell phone than my trusty touch. I use my touch a lot traveling and out on walks to listen to podcasts. I can't imagine myself doing that with an iPad. I'd look silly.

I'm thinking about getting an iPad late in 2010, but it won't be as a touch replacement. The beast is far too big to carry with me everywhere. In the short-term it won't replace anything except perhaps books. The work apps on my MacBook (such as Scrivener) don't yet exist on an iPad. In the long term, if enough writing/working apps migrate to the iPad, it still probably won't substitute for a laptop, it'll just delay how often I upgrade. And in the end, Apple will probably get more money out of me rather than less.

Well said. I don't anticipate anyone walking around with their iPads on a daily basis. I don't even see people lugging around a netbook either. It is not exactly a "portable" device to be carried around daily. I can do more on the iPhone without having to lug around a silly looking iPad.
post #25 of 163
My advice is to wait until the end of 2010 for the holiday when the 32 GB should be avialable for $499 maybe $399.
post #26 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by hillstones View Post

Well said. I don't anticipate anyone walking around with their iPads on a daily basis. I don't even see people lugging around a netbook either. It is not exactly a "portable" device to be carried around daily. I can do more on the iPhone without having to lug around a silly looking iPad.

Not to mention if you pull out an iPad on the NYC subway you might as well wear a sign on your forehead that reads "MUG ME".
post #27 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by nkhm View Post

I actually think demand will be so high we'll end up with delays and issues due to stock levels and suppliers matching demand.

Here's somebody that knows how Apple operates, alright.

I reiterate my prediction of 10 million units by end of 2010.

In between all sorts of crazy demand globally that Apple will struggle to keep up with - also because Apple is geared for between 2 to 5 million units.
post #28 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandau View Post

i completely agree with this statement. I think there will be shortages from day 1. Lines around the block at the Apple stores. Youtube unboxing frenzy, geeks swooning and fainting and the gnashing of teeth from those that couldn't get one.

That's a nice dream you have. Doubtful it will be true. The most press the iPad has gotten has been the joke of the name that they gave it. The MadTV iPad parody has gotten more views than when it originally aired.
post #29 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by hillstones View Post

Really? Are you sure about that? You cannot use an iPad without already owning a Mac or PC computer

Yes, you can - that's a nonsense statement. This device is for media consumption and has a closed ecosystem of content delivery. Re your further comments about wifi 'set-up', I'm not sure how it works in the USA, but in the UK, BT or Virgin turn up at your house with the kit, plug it in and it works.

Pick up pad, turn on, hit internet icon, enter URL. There ya go. Even my dad can do that (he's sat with credit card at hand as I type).

Of course this thing will sync with a computer, but it doesn't have to in order to achieve its stated potential.
post #30 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by TEKSTUD View Post

Not to mention if you pull out an iPad on the NYC subway you might as well wear a sign on your forehead that reads "MUG ME".

You got that right. You might as well be wearing a sign, "Look at me! I am an iDouchebag!"
post #31 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by Object-X View Post

I think they are grossly underestimating the impact of this device and it's entry level price point. [...] Nor do I think it will have a significant impact on iPod Touch sales either; those numbers will continue to increase.

Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post

I think they underestimate the appeal of the iPad. I imagine it will become the new home laptop. It may eat into all sorts of other sales but more than anything it will allow people to get a cheap home computer that truly is easy to use, and at a great price.I think it will become a 'new' addition more than it will cannibalize. [...]

I'm not going to predict sales numbers, although I think the iPad will sell very well, but I agree that it probably won't cut into iPod Touch sales that much, and that it will become the new laptop, in a sense. In fact, if it cuts into anything, it may well be laptops, although, this may end up boosting desktop sales.

I think a lot of people are now buying laptops a) because laptops are cool, b) because they want something they can take with them when traveling, mostly for email and light web browsing, and c) because they want to be able to web surf/email/im around the house. The iPad is way cooler than a laptop. It's also much better for surfing around the house. And, unless you have very serious work to do on the road, it's probably also much better for travel, for most people. When you consider that you can get an iMac, with considerably more screen real estate than a laptop, for when you need to do serious work, and also get an iPad, for much the same price combined as a laptop, does it really make sense to buy a laptop instead?

I think that a lot of people are going to move back to desktops+tablets, and away from laptops, and that laptops will go back to being for "road warriors" and people who really need to be able to do serious work when occasionally away from home (and maybe college students, for whom an iPad alone wouldn't be appropriate and for whom small dorm rooms and desks often make laptops more attractive options). This is a trend that will, if anything, be accelerated by cloud storage: rather than lugging your laptop home from work you'll just be able to access work from home, and most of the time you'd rather do that on a larger screen. at a desk.
post #32 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by hillstones View Post

The iPad is NOT something that can replace a computer.

Yes, that's the whole point of the device.

It's not a replacement for anything, it's a new type of device.

Did you watch the keynote?

It's for people who don't need the 'full' computer experience - people who just want to browse the web, check their email (hotmail probably!) and listen to music while reading books.
post #33 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandau View Post

i completely agree with this statement. I think there will be shortages from day 1. Lines around the block at the Apple stores. Youtube unboxing frenzy, geeks swooning and fainting and the gnashing of teeth from those that couldn't get one.


I don't think it will be all that, sure there will be the typical un-boxing and the brave dissection photo's (big hit traffic there!)

But I don't think we will see the lines outside of Apple Store for the iPad and this is why.

The iPad is a not a computer geek thing, it's not all that powerful or feature rich. Most have already heard that the iPad sports a camera, so they are going to wait for the better version to come out.

A regular Mac does 10x more things than the iPad does, so why spend upwards of $700 when a few hundred more buys you a REAL computer?

This iPad is a accessory, families might buy it for their kids, schools may buy it for their students. Both won't be standing in long lines overnight for it.

There might be a few in line before a Apple Store opens, these people make their money by evaluating first products or shipping them off to Redmond and the cloners.

No need to break out the crowd barriers on this one.
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post #34 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by hillstones View Post

That's a nice dream you have. Doubtful it will be true. The most press the iPad has gotten has been the joke of the name that they gave it. The MadTV iPad parody has gotten more views than when it originally aired.


it's funny, because Nintendo's "Wii" received a similar response in the UK. We don't really talk about 'pads' as sanitary products in the UK, if it had been called the "iTampax" then there would have been more than a little amusement this side of the pond.

That the "wii" sounds like the UK slang for "urine" hasn't dented sales, I can assure you.
post #35 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by nkhm View Post

Yes, that's the whole point of the device.

It's not a replacement for anything, it's a new type of device.

Did you watch the keynote?

It's for people who don't need the 'full' computer experience - people who just want to browse the web, check their email (hotmail probably!) and listen to music while reading books.

In other words a device for dumb couch potatoes?
post #36 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by nkhm View Post

Yes, you can - that's a nonsense statement. This device is for media consumption and has a closed ecosystem of content delivery. Re your further comments about wifi 'set-up', I'm not sure how it works in the USA, but in the UK, BT or Virgin turn up at your house with the kit, plug it in and it works.

Pick up pad, turn on, hit internet icon, enter URL. There ya go. Even my dad can do that (he's sat with credit card at hand as I type).

Of course this thing will sync with a computer, but it doesn't have to in order to achieve its stated potential.

And since you don't live in the USA, you don't know how things work. People have to set up their own Wi-Fi networks with their own wireless routers in the USA...and you need a computer for that. Since Apple is touting it as a media device including music and video, you DO need a computer if you want to put your own music and videos on it.
post #37 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by TEKSTUD View Post

Not to mention if you pull out an iPad on the NYC subway you might as well wear a sign on your forehead that reads "MUG ME".

Yeah, well, that's NYC for you. When visiting the city oh, almost 10 years ago, I got caught during peak hour suddenly walking against the flow of foot traffic in the subway station. A guy just held my shoulders, shifted me to the side, and continued. It was so efficient it wasn't actually rude. I felt like a real tourist though.

San Francisco, no worries on their light rail transit and Caltrain, unless it's late at night. The bus is too bumpy though. As I recall.

So the iPad will be useable in the public transport of some cities, and not others. Thanks for playing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TEKSTUD View Post

My advice is to wait until the end of 2010 for the holiday when the 32 GB should be avialable for $499 maybe $399.

This I have to agree with. *rubs hands* ...Where I am now, it's still a disgusting process trying to get an iPhone 3GS, with the plans and waiting and slow warranty claims. --I did get an iPhone 3G (now with my mom) and an iPhone 3GS. Long story. So anyways who knows with the 3G and micro-SIMS (who heard of that before this, huh)...

However, $399 for 32GB WiFi version with iPhone/iPad OS 4.0+ = RESISTANCE IS FUTILE.

Bonus points for hackers setting up 3G tethering from iPhone to iPad for when you don't have WiFi.
post #38 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post

I think they underestimate the appeal of the iPad. I imagine it will become the new home laptop. It may eat into all sorts of other sales but more than anything it will allow people to get a cheap home computer that truly is easy to use, and at a great price.I think it will become a 'new' addition more than it will cannibalize. I can even see people finding all sorts of dedicated uses for it such as a dedicated itunes / music / radio player, and as the storage capacity increases, also a video player. As a first computer for kids it is perfect, etc etc.

I think the iPad could also become the ultimate TV remote controller.

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post #39 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by hillstones View Post

You got that right. You might as well be wearing a sign, "Look at me! I am an iDouchebag!"

When you start seeing people carrying them around, you should grow some balls and tell that to them to their face.
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post #40 of 163
I'll trust them that the e-book reader won't ignite sales; Amazon might have sold 1MM units in the 4th quarter on devices arguably better suited for the task. Apple will easily steal the Kindle DX and Plastic Logic sales, and might take a pretty big hit on the Nook, but that isn't going to be a huge factor in my mind.

But the real catalyst is already there in the App Store. Looking through the apps I use, the extra real-estate could be put to good use. I'm not quite sure if I could use the iPad in bed the way I use the iPhone, but the couch should be fine.

For me, the iPad's killer app would be SketchUp, as that is the only application I use my net/notebooks for.
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