Apple seen moving 2M iPads in 2010 before sales 'catalyst' emerges - Page 2

With an analysis like that, I'd say he already is one!

Well, that is poor service then. Where I live WiFi routers come pre-configured, with the WPA2 password randomly generated and included in a blind envelope. Copying that long number is about the only challenge. Since the majority of Apple's sales are now outside the US, US providers might learn something here...

Any costly device would send the same message, so your sarcasm is not illuminating.

Absolutely - and there are a LOT of them.

Besides text books for schools I wonder if they could get that going for a retail e-book, or an audio version that expires after say, a week.

Haven't seen much speculation of this type but it would certainly spur sales if they could get publishers on board.

Almost spot on, except the iPhone should be no brain and lots of money.


A Blackberry should go where the brains and money are.

There is nothing special about these SIMs, exactly the same chip size, just less plastic around it... Actually we have quite a few shops that do instant "conversion" (using a die cutter) for 5 EUR, takes them less than a minute.

As the iPad will have no network lock, I am sure all providers will offer these SIMs in no time.

I thought you were permanently banned. Looks like I'll have to update the ole "Ignore With A Vengeance" list.

OK, you mean I don't know how things work in the USA, not how things "work" - there is a world outside the US you know. And it's where Apple sell a majority of their products.

You need a computer to set up wi-fi? No. You simply need to access the routers CP via a browser. Why couldn't you access your routers control panel via the web browser on the 'pad? you confuse me.

Also, "if you want to put your "own" music and videos on it" - Well Apple want you to buy content on line. Of course this thing will have even MORE potential if hooked up to a computer, but it's not necessary in order to own the device. But look at your logic - if someone currently doesn't have a home computer, then they're not going to have their "own" digital media to transfer. If they do already have a computer then there's no issue.

I don't understand your logic. At all.

I'm convinced they are already, we just haven't heard it yet because Amazon prices has to be changed first. Amazon knows what is going on, but they got to pretend to put up a fuss to shift the blame to the publishers. So they pull one publishers e-books for a day or two, big deal.

The publishers will come out with the "rental option" and everyone will be happy.

But do you think we are in the early adopter stage for this type of product still? I had a Sharp WIzard back in the day, several Palm devices, several blackberries, a Nokia 770, and then the iPhone. Starting in about 2000, you could almost substitute a Palm with a keyboard for a computer if you were backpacking or a road warrior.

In 2005 or so, I thought the Nokia 770 was the answer to what I had been wanting all those years-- flexible operating system, bluetooth tethering to my cell phone for internet (or WiFi), and applications I could use to edit documents, along with a reasonably good internet browser for the time.

The iPhone just made that concept actually work in a mass-adoption scale.

dupe delete

Time will show the following, And Answers, to your incorrect conclusions:

1) You do NOT need any computer, Mac or PC, to fully use an iPad.
There are scores of owners of iPhones and iPod touches that do not have any computers, and even a few that do have computers, but don't sync to their computers. Why. because they don't know how to or care to.
Yet, they know how to use their "mobile" Apple devices. I know them personally.

With the iPhone, the 3G allows them all the connectivity they need, plus the Wifi on an iPhone is easy-peasy. All their Music and Apps can be sourced from the iTunes Store.
For the the internet there is Safari. For email, there is Mail.

With the iPod Touch, WiFi is simple and it just works.
My neighbor's son has an iPod Touch, yet my neighbor has no computers or wireless connections. He is not missing anything and knows how to connect anywhere and everywhere he can. No one ever showed him how. He buys all his music and apps through iTunes, just like Apple likes it.

The iPad
2) If the user "WANTS" connectivity, but does not have or know how to set up WiFi at Home, the 3G model will be purchased. For those that need limited connectivity and don't know how to set up Wifi, there are MANY ways to connect. There are Friends & Families homes and Wifi for pay. Plus their are ton's of Free Hot spots readily available. 1000's of MacDonalds, Public Library's, Barne's & Nobles, Best Buys, Panera Bread, Starbuck's and on and on.
It sound to me like you don't own an Apple "mobile" product, because if you did, you would know how easy and simple it is to connect to any wireless access point. On the iPhone and iPod Touch, you just "turn it on".

3) Please check your references and again, The iPad is 100% a stand-alone product.
Even Photo's will be input directly, from the camera to the iPad, using the USB adapter. There will be countless Apps to help you do this just by "touching" the screen.

4) Just this past weekend, an extremely computer-challenged Uncle said he would buy one of these. He does not own any computer and does not have any connectivity at home. I explained to him his options in "connectivity". I think he will be extremely pleased with his user-experience, when he buy's his own iPad.
(PLEASE NOTE: there would be NO SALE to this individual, for a traditional Laptop, Desktop or Netbook, thus Apple is reaching a NEW MARKET)

5)I challenge any scenario, employing the methods I detailed above, where the iPad can not be a stand-alone product.

All ears?

To securely set up a router, you do need physical access, a Ethernet port. Especially if your locked out somehow or need to update the firmware.


Also unless you want to suffer with even slower than now 3G speeds, your going to need wifi and a broadband connection, which set up properly, your going to need a computer.

Or you can pay someone to set up the router for you too.


The iPad is not a replacement for a computer, it's a learning device for the computer illiterate and those who can never learn a computer and need a lot of hand holding.

I doubt a lot of real power users will find a use for this iPad device for themselves.

Nope, you don't. You simply need to tap into the routers CP via a browser (196.168.2.1 or equiv) use the default username and password as stated in the router documentation. If you turn on security settings, WEP or whatever, the router reboots, you lose you connection, once router rebooted, you connect to it and enter the password. It's how i've configured every household I've ever set up wi-fi for.

I'm not talking advanced functionality, repeater bridges and the like, I'm talking getting connected to the net - if you've forgotten your password or are locked out and it's your router, you simply reset it to factory default using the reset switch.

The price.

I think you'll find you do in fact need a computer....when purchasing an iPod touch or iPhone you need to connect it to iTunes in order to set it up and register etc...

Also in their specs page a Mac or PC is listed under required hardware!

I think Apple should definitely sell it as a functioning standalone iPad - but I honestly don't think they are!?

Nope, that's not correct. You need an internet connection to register the device, if you so wish - but as this is not a contract based device, there is no activation or similar required.

And the required hardware is listed as a footnote for those who wish to sync to their itunes, iPhoto collection - it's all down there in small print - it's like saying "warning: may contain nuts" on the side of packet of peanuts.

It is a new sector device, it is being sold as a stand alone device.

I actually think the analyst isn't being particular insightful.

Turn the concept on it's head.

The App Store is doing great - the iPad itself is the catalyst that brings those apps to the "saturation" level she describes.

With no IR? How would it talk to the TV?

You're a idiot. The 'power user' of the Mac world is a media professional. They will be first in line for this device, me included. Can you work out why dumbfuck?

That's not necessarily true. Most wireless routers are preconfigured for DHCP access out of the box. All you have to do is plug the router in and if the "device" is smart enough, it should see the network. It is true to make any changes you need to log into the router, but even then, you still don't need a computer, just a device with a web browser. I've set up a lot of routers from my iPhone... no "computer" required.

These will sell like hotcakes, they will take some time obviously to reach full momentum but I expect fantastic sales.

Well I consider myself a 'power user' but there are times when I don't need to do 'power user' tasks and don't necessarily need a 'power user' computer. However, even on my iPhone I can SSH into my web server and get stuff done when I need to.

Hm, you might want to rephrase that before the illideraz take notice

You have no clue what you are talking about. The first thing you have to do to activate your iPod Touch sync it with iTunes. This will be the same with the iPad seeing all your online books will be purchased using iTunes.

Also how do you backup your iPod Touch or iPhone without the use of a computer or iTunes?

Oh man, you are so wrong. You are right in that a complete technophobe can't go out an buy it and set it up him or herself. But given that they will get some help in setting it up, like they would a new TV with a cable box, they will be able to use it without too many problems. The iPad will never replace a computer for you, but for many it can. It has all that most users use on a daily basis and one thing that no-one uses that I have ever met, is multiple user logins. I have set it up on our family imac and no-one ever bothers. What you have to realize is that for the average user the computers are a pain to operate. the interface is messy and archaic.

Back ups are not part of the day to day function of this device, but I guess you could always plug in an external hard drive, or back up to an SD card.

You don't 'need' to sync to itunes if you don't have a computer, it runs it's own version of iTunes with full access to the store.

The device does not need 'activating', it is not a phone, it is not subject to any contract.

You need an internet connection to register a device on line, if you want to - oh yes - it has one of those.

Why don't people get that this is a new device category and it can absolutely stand alone. my dad has an iPhone, he does not have a computer. Go figure.

I'm half in agreement with you, but I'm betting a complete technophobe can set this up on their own - providing they don't need to configure pop/imap email accounts. A hotmail/mobileme/google email user who uses only hotmail/mobileme/googlemail for email will be able to do this a breeze.

Turn on.
Hit web browsing button
Go to hotmail/me.com/google
Username - password.
Done.

I don't know how Wolf could have been so perceptive to see the importance of a catalyst, and yet too blind to see that the iPad's catalyst is already in place. It is the $15 per month G3 dataplan (or the $30 plan for heavier users).

The iPad comes to us with a degree of mobility we've not seen in the past in this price range. Mom can use it as an eReader or to watch a TV program. Dad can take it to the lake house on the weekend. Connectivity and versatility means great value for the price. That could be a bigger catalyst than we've seen to date for Apple's other products.

The iPad won't replace the iPod touch. If anything, the iPhone replaces the iPod touch.
I've got an iPod touch, but when they release the next iPhone in the middle of this year, I'm gonna get it, and that'll replace my iPod touch. The iPad it waaaaay too big to be used as an MP3 player on the road.

Of course I'll use one. Most power users will be excited by this device, believe me. If you are saying that power users won't replace their work horse machine for the iPad, you are right, but get one? Top of the wish list, mate. Can you imagine how many webyfied power app front ends this thing will run? Like daylite, or similar. Instead of firing up the old laptop when you are with clients, or in the car, or some such, this thing will be far superior. So yes, power users will use this both for business and pleasure.

This will sell a lot in the Apple Store, but maybe not so well online, because everything I've read so far from people that have played with the device is entirely positive, yet the hate from people who haven't tried it is immense.

I can't comment on the sales volumes. The option of a $499 variant is going to help shift product, especially with a likely 5000+ iPad optimised apps from day 1 in the store, and tens of thousands a few months down the line.

I don't know what the best version to get is myself. There could be too much choice!

Ummm.... yeah, maybe, but you need to try and help some completely computer illiterate person check their email first. Not only is it unbelievably frustrating but also a real eyeopener. Like when a window disappears behind another... I have seen people just give up at this point and hit the on off button on their computer in order to resolve this problem. But yes, if they are accustomed to using hotmail and have a router all set up, then yeah.

Apples marketing slogan used to be "Think Different".

It's a bit sad to see the lack of imagination. People can only view this as a replacement for something - they can't see that it's a new level of device.

I'll be ordering them for photographers in the field. Shoot - transfer to iPad to have a nice look and email them back to the office. There's one "power user" application that took me about ten seconds of looking at the iPad pages on the Apple web site to come up with.

Do people really have such little imagination?

it's not a replacement anything, it's something new. There's no comparison to be had, there's nothing to replace. It doesn't eat into iPod sales as a music player, it doesn't eat into laptop or desktop sales as a serious work horse, it doesn't do what a netbook supposedly does. It's Different.

Think different.

Absolutely, but the 'average joe' (to coin an american phrase) will be able to turn this on and browse the internet. It would take a whole new level of stupid to not even be able to do that.

PS. I spend all day every day helping stupid clients with their computer 'issues', not that it's part of my job description. I blame windows ENTIRELY for the level of fear people have about computers, and the mental barriers they have in place which prevent them from being comfortable to experiment and teach themselves basic computing practice.

Well I know I'm buying two in April, so that means it will sell well...

I think most of the discussion so far has been regarding the super-sizing of existing iPhone apps. But Apple's entire suite of iWork apps should set the bar much higher. Keynote has gone from OS X Jaguar all the way up through Snow Leopard, and is now ported to the iPad. To me this gives *great* promise for every other native OS X app out there. I'd hate to see what MS Office looked like on the iPad but it's theoretically possible. And that is the elephant in the room -- full apps on the iPad. Sure, Google Maps on a larger screen will be awesome, but any app that is usable by small-to-medium businesses extends the iPad into whole new markets. And wait till the cool executives start toting one into the boardroom......Enterprise envy could be large. Keynote vs. Powerpoint.

I wouldn't even try to speculate on sales figures, except that Apple's own targets will be exceeded and a few years from now the total number of iPads in the wild will exceed most numbers any pundit has thrown out there.

It's the mobile touch computing revolution, after all...

Not so- you can discreetly view an iPhone but not the MaxiPad.

Personally, I agree with Munster that this will slow burn in 2010, then take off in 2011. The primary area where the Needham guy is missing the bigger picture (in my opinion) is that iPad is all about "It's the Platform, Stupid," and the platform has 140K apps and 100K+ developers already building around it. That's a lot of built in lift-off, and this is one of those "rising tide lifts all boats" things.

That said, it will take some time for developers to figure out how best to partition their development activities between two form factors (iPhone/iPod touch and iPad). Plus, developers won't even have hardware to test against until end of March when iPad ships. By contrast, when iPhone SDK went beta, developers had already been using iPhones/iPod touches for several months.

While I do believe that Apple is working on an iPad-specific catalyst (best guess tied to Re-booting the print media business, then growing into TV Anywhere, and Apple TV revamp within this same platform), it just seems that that will take a bit longer to materialize.

If interested, here is some further analysis on the prospects for iPad:

Check Mate: Apple's iPad and Google's Next Move
http://bit.ly/9MZQM2

Cheers,

Mark