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Credit Suisse: 75% chance AT&T keeps iPhone exclusivity in 2010

post #1 of 52
Thread Starter 
The iPhone will inevitably be available on multiple carriers in the U.S., one analyst believes, though 2010 is not likely to be the year Apple ends its agreement with AT&T.

Based on that assessment, Jonathan Chaplin, research analyst with Credit Suisse, downgraded Verizon stock to a "neutral" rating. The iPhone remaining exclusive to AT&T, he said, will have a negative impact on Verizon.

"Our analysis suggests that Apple will eventually sell the device at all carriers; however, there is a much greater probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity for another 12-18 months than investors realize," Chaplin wrote. "We think this has profound impacts for Apple, the carriers and the other handset OEMs."

Chaplin sees the iPhone becoming available on all carriers, including a CDMA-capable version of the handset, in mid-2011. That timing would give AT&T another 12 to 18 months to "fix their network," he said, which would give Verizon less of an advantage when the iPhone eventually does make its way to the nation's largest wireless carrier.

The report asserts that there is a 75 percent likelihood that AT&T will retain its exclusivity this calendar year. That number is obtained through a probability analysis done by Credit Suisse.

"We conclude there is only a 50% probability that it (exclusivity) ends in 2010," Chaplin wrote. "Next, we try to determine whether AT&T bids for another year of exclusivity if exclusivity does end in 2010. We conclude they would and they can afford to compensate Apple such that Apple would be economically indifferent.

"Our approach yields a 25% probability for this outcome. Taken together, we see a 75% probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity for another year."

In his massive, 60-page analysis, Chaplin sees four possible outcomes regarding AT&T and the iPhone in 2010:

Both parties agree to another year of exclusivity for AT&T, at an estimated cost of $1.6 billion. This scenario, he said, makes sense for AT&T, but it's unclear whether Apple would agree.

AT&T loses iPhone exclusivity, but Apple does not make a CDMA-capable handset. This would have a "modest" impact on AT&T, Chaplin said, but would result in meaningful upside for T-Mobile, the other major GSM-based carrier in the U.S.

Exclusivity ends and Apple manufactures a CDMA iPhone. While this scenario would have a significant impact on AT&T, it would be beneficial to all other wireless carriers: Verizon, Sprint, and T-Mobile. It also presents the most positive outcome for Apple with an estimated 10.53 million additional iPhone sales over the next two years.


Exclusivity ends in mid-2011. This scenario assumes that AT&T and Apple have already entered into an agreement that will ensure no other wireless carriers in the U.S. will have access to the iPhone in 2010. If this were to happen, Chaplin believes AT&T would improve its network and fewer subscribers would be likely to leave.


Last year, AT&T was rumored to be negotiating with Apple to extend its exclusive contract past its assumed 2010 end date. While Apple and AT&T were said to be in talks to extend the contract through 2011, it is unknown whether a deal was reached.

Last summer, AT&T even admitted it wouldn't have exclusive rights to the iPhone forever, further fueling speculation that AT&T and Apple would end their agreement.

But much of that talk cooled last week when Apple executives, during the company's quarterly earnings conference call, defended AT&T and downplayed talk of multi-carrier inevitability in the U.S. Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook said Apple has selected countries where a multi-carrier system would inevitably happen, but it may not be the right decision for the iPhone in every market.

Apple then later that week announced an AT&T-only 3G data plan for the iPad in the U.S. The no-contract plans run $14.99 for 250MB of data per month, while the unlimited data option is $29.99. That the iPad did not come in a CDMA, Verizon-compatible model caught many by surprise, and only served to solidify the existing relationship between Apple and AT&T.
post #2 of 52
i'm getting speed test results in Manhattan that are twice as fast as verizon's hypothetical ideal situation maximum evdo speeds
post #3 of 52
I'm curious whether they are privy to the contract(s) between Apple and ATT.

If not, I don't understand how there is any firm basis for any guesses. Anybody care to speculate as to the basis for the estimate? And could that basis be reliable absent a detailed knowlege of the contracts that the two operate under?
post #4 of 52
Well, either they are consulting their magic eight ball or a Ouija board.
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post #5 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by iGenius View Post

I'm curious whether they are privy to the contract(s) between Apple and ATT.

If not, I don't understand how there is any firm basis for any guesses. Anybody care to speculate as to the basis for the estimate? And could that basis be reliable absent a detailed knowlege of the contracts that the two operate under?

I doubt they are privy to the AT&T/Apple contract.

They list the major scenarios and took a guess. That's why they're only 75% certain, not 100%. They're just saying, "of all these potential avenues, this one looks the most likely." Nothing more.
post #6 of 52
Somebody should tell this analyst that his 60-page report is worth less than a roll of toilet paper.

Probability analysis ?? It's known as "Garbage in, garbage out." LOL.

Steve will never deal with Verizon. When he first came to them for a deal, they turned him down. Now, it's "I'll destroy you, Verizon."
post #7 of 52
While I understand the arguments against a CDMA/Verizon iPhone, there is one big one for it even if it means extra expense and overhead for Apple. The longer Apple waits to deploy a CDMA iPhone, the longer Android has to establish a foothold with Verizon. Think about the iPod/iTunes "lock-in" everyone complained about when music had DRM. You couldn't switch to a non-Apple music player because none of the music you purchased would work on it.

The longer Android goes unopposed on Verizon's network, the more Android phones/apps people will buy. Then if/when the iPhone becomes available on Verizon, people with an investment in Android software will be less likely to switch.

Similarly, if I have an Android phone on Verizon and I'm contemplating getting an iPad, I can't use the same applications for both devices. Any application (or type of application) I wanted to use on both devices I'd have to purchase twice. So it could even impact sales of iPads to non-ATT customers.

The sooner Apple can establish an iPhone OS ecosystem on Verizon, it will be easier to nip Android in the bud before it gets too much traction.
post #8 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleGreen View Post

Somebody should tell this analyst that his 60-page report is worth less than a roll of toilet paper.

Probability analysis ?? It's known as "Garbage in, garbage out." LOL.

Steve will never deal with Verizon. When he first came to them for a deal, they turned him down. Now, it's "I'll destroy you, Verizon."

-------------

Yes, they will never deal with Verizon. And they will never deal with Intel. There will never be an Intel chip in a Mac.

And they will never deal with Microsoft.

Get it?

Dude, there are *A LOT* of people who will not use Verizon. They will get an iPhone the second it is on Verizon.

I felt like cancelling my iPhone service when my daughter had a bad car accident off a major US freeway (I-90) and her Freaking iPhone would not get service. But guess what? Her boyfriend's Verizon service was working!!! Boy, are they lucky they had access to the Verizon network!!!
post #9 of 52
I'll move to Verizon when they get the ablility to use both data and voice at the same time without having to rely on Wi-Fi and they offer noticeably lower prices than AT&T. I am not interested in saving 5 bucks.
post #10 of 52
So, in the 3 of the 4 worlds that they monitor AT&T retains the rights to the iPhone for all of 2010 - that's awesome - any idea which sliding door we're behind??
post #11 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wiggin View Post

While I understand the arguments against a CDMA/Verizon iPhone, there is one big on for it even if it means extra expense and overhead for Apple. The longer Apple waits to deploy a CDMA iPhone, the longer Android has to establish a foothold with Verizon. Think about the iPod/iTunes "lock-in" everyone complained about when music had DRM. You couldn't switch to a non-Apple music player because none of the music you purchased would work on it.

The longer Android goes unopposed on Verizon's network, the more Android phones/apps people will buy. Then if/when the iPhone becomes available on Verizon, people with an investment in Android software will be less likely to switch.

Similarly, if I have an Android phone on Verizon and I'm contemplating getting an iPad, I can't use the same applications for both devices. Any application (or type of application) I wanted to use on both devices I'd have to purchase twice. So it could even impact sales of iPads to non-ATT customers.

The sooner Apple can establish an iPhone OS ecosystem on Verizon, it will be easier to nip Android in the bud before it gets too much traction.

Have the analysts ever gotten anything right? Whatever they say tends to just become fodder to get everyone riled up again.

I never thought about Apple going after Android on the Verizon network. I think that's an excellent point. Since there's really not a lot of love lost between Apple and Google these days, it would make sense for Apple to consider branching out to Verizon, or at least T-Mobile.

We don't know anything about Apple's plans for iPhone in the U.S., whether they will expand carriers or not. The only thing we know for absolute certainty is that Apple is about profit, not market share. That explains why they're happy with a sliver of the computer pie. They might not sell the volume that Dell or some other manufacturers might, but they make so much money per unit that they don't have to worry about the small margins those other companies have to survive on.

It can only be assumed that AT&T is giving Apple some really big bags of money to ensure exclusivity. If Apple can keep its profit margin on the iPhone big and healthy, there's really no compelling reason for it to go to another carrier.

On AT&T's side, they have to see whether it's really worth it to have the iPhone exclusively. Do they really want to make the massive investments to bring their data network up to Verizon's level? There's no point for them to spend additional billions of dollars to upgrade the network since it devalues the worth of an iPhone customer who doesn't pay any more for data now.

Personally, I hope that exclusivity ends this summer, but I'm not not so sure if it will come to pass in 2010 or even 2011.
post #12 of 52
"We conclude there is only a 50% probability that it (exclusivity) ends in 2010," Chaplin wrote. "Next, we try to determine whether AT&T bids for another year of exclusivity if exclusivity does end in 2010. We conclude they would and they can afford to compensate Apple such that Apple would be economically indifferent.

"Our approach yields a 25% probability for this outcome. Taken together, we see a 75% probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity for another year."


So a 50% chance they keep exclusivity and 50% they don't. If you take the 50% that they don't and give a 25% chance they re-bid, then that is only a 12.5% chance of happening (50% of 25%) to make the total chance 62.5% (50% +12.5%) not 75%.

Of course all these percentages are guesses anyway...
post #13 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by iGenius View Post

I'm curious whether they are privy to the contract(s) between Apple and ATT.

If not, I don't understand how there is any firm basis for any guesses. Anybody care to speculate as to the basis for the estimate? And could that basis be reliable absent a detailed knowlege of the contracts that the two operate under?

If they had access to the contract there would be no need to produce a 60 page report trying to estimate the odds of when it expires. No need to speculate about the basis of their estimates, it's stated in the article. If you want more details you can get the 60 page report, I'm sure it's quite engaging material.
post #14 of 52
No idea why they focus so much on the "exclusivity" buzzword. Apple does not need to put anything in writing here, even without extending the exclusivity, AT&T is still the only network that makes sense for the iPhone. How many people would buy the phone without subsidy (at $600-$700) and then use it at EDGE speeds on T-Mobile?

AT&T, despite all the network complaints, still gains more subscribers than any other telco. If the upcoming 2010 iPhone update is really an "A+" update, this, the iPad and the international gains combined might be enough for Apple. It might well get them through the time before LTE becomes relevant. If they had any interest in Verizon, they would have announced a CDMA model of the iPad.
post #15 of 52
Gotta wonder if there was a little, "Hey we would like this pricing on iPad 3G data and you would like to continue exclusivity."
post #16 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreyfus2 View Post

How many people would buy the phone without subsidy (at $600-$700) and then use it at EDGE speeds on T-Mobile?

if they add the 1700MHz radio T-Mobile is in without having to go outside GSM. However, I have to wonder even that will happen when the unlocked, contract free iPad doesn't even support T-Mobile's 3G network.
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post #17 of 52
Apple likes doing business with AT&T because they can push them around. Whatever Jobs wants, AT&T drops to their knees and gives it to him. Why? Because if he pulls and goes with other carriers, AT&T will loose millions. Apple made them and can break them anytime they want.

I hope Steve Jobs dropped a dozen calls when he was in New York with his top hat the other day. If he could see what we go through in this area, he would know the iPhone could never be used in the Enterprise market here.
post #18 of 52
I thought for sure it was more like 76% to 77%.
post #19 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

Over several decades Apple has never been powerful enough to put any major company out of business.

What about in the early days of the PC? Do you discount Apple's role in the demise of the early competing systems like Commodore et. al?
post #20 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghostface147 View Post

I'll move to Verizon when they get the ablility to use both data and voice at the same time

Why would that make you move to Verizon?
post #21 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by cxc273 View Post

Have the analysts ever gotten anything right?

Some of them do sometimes. Then they get on the cover of Business Week and are taken seriously for the next several quarters, or until their lucky streak ends, whichever comes first.



Quote:
Originally Posted by cxc273 View Post

We don't know anything about Apple's plans for iPhone in the U.S., whether they will expand carriers or not. The only thing we know for absolute certainty is that Apple is about profit, not market share.

I think that you are mistaking a means with an end. If increased market share were seen to be the best means to maximizing total profits, then Apple would be using that method.
post #22 of 52
All AT&T would need to say is "We have signed on for anther 2 years with Apple and the iPhone." and I would go out and buy the newest iPhone to replace my iPhone 3G (that has seen better days).

I wanted to see if there would be a Verizon jump, but to be honest, I never loved Verizon when I had them.
post #23 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by iGenius View Post

What about in the early days of the PC? Do you discount Apple's role in the demise of the early competing systems like Commodore et. al?

They had a role, just like IBM, Microsoft and mismanagement did. Apple did not put Commodore out of business.
post #24 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by mitchell_pgh View Post

All AT&T would need to say is "We have signed on for anther 2 years with Apple and the iPhone." and I would go out and buy the newest iPhone to replace my iPhone 3G (that has seen better days).

I wanted to see if there would be a Verizon jump, but to be honest, I never loved Verizon when I had them.

There was a study done recently (and reported in the New York Times) that AT&T's network is better overall (except perhaps in NY city and San Fran) than Verizon's. And, AT&T's problems were partly because of the iPhone.

Verizon has got everyone brainwashed as a result of their heavy advertising.
post #25 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wiggin View Post

The longer Apple waits to deploy a CDMA iPhone, the longer Android has to establish a foothold with Verizon.

That's a pretty good thesis, especially from a US-centric perspective. Ultimately though, the question back to Apple is if Android is really a threat to their business model.

From my perspective, Android is a significant threat over a 2-year horizon, much more so than RIM. If quality Android phones are available on the other three carriers, Apple will be stuck with the lion's share of AT&T's smart phone subscribers, but will be limited on growth.
post #26 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleGreen View Post

There was a study done recently (and reported in the New York Times) that AT&T's network is better overall (except perhaps in NY city and San Fran) than Verizon's. And, AT&T's problems were partly because of the iPhone.

Verizon has got everyone brainwashed as a result of their heavy advertising.

That study came from a small company that nobody has ever heard of.

Meanwhile, well known companies that are known for non-bias like Consumer Reports and JD Powers continue to rank Verizon at the top.
post #27 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

That's a pretty good thesis, especially from a US-centric perspective. Ultimately though, the question back to Apple is if Android is really a threat to their business model.

From my perspective, Android is a significant threat over a 2-year horizon, much more so than RIM. If quality Android phones are available on the other three carriers, Apple will be stuck with the lion's share of AT&T's smart phone subscribers, but will be limited on growth.

Google is by far --- much more dangerous in the long term. Google is big and rich --- if they want to, they can afford to lose money on the Android for the next 5 years.
post #28 of 52
An alternative way to look at the Android-Verizon vs. iPhone-ATT matchup is to consider the reasonably likely alternative that i-A simply defeats A-V, the same way that Apple defeated every iPod challenger, including ones that were doing well before the iPod. Apple is a hardware company, it's been building devices for a long time, it has a good relationship with its customers, it has successful retail stores, it has a big head start, and it is willing to devote enormous resources into the iPhone (relatively more than Google). The smart money should be on i-A over A-V. Apple stuck to its iTunes-iPod alliance, and they seem to have been right. I think that Verizon will want some control over the iPhone that Apple is never going to give them. A defeated Verizon might be different.

On a related point raised earlier, I think that the AT&T-iPad deal is a two-edged sword. No one really can say who will use 3G on an iPad and how much. My guess is that iPads won't be used much on 3G, compared to smart phones, because they're too big to carry everywhere. Plus, many of the early adopters will be iPhone owners. So, I think that the rates are probably a good bet for AT&T. The absence of contracts will entice customers. However, if I'm wrong and usage is high, AT&T doesn't have an obligation either. They can change the rates any time they want. AT&T probably underestimated iPhone 2.5G usage, and so they raised the rates in later plans.
post #29 of 52
Sure guys.

Apple was NEVER going to Intel... remember that one? That's good for a laugh today, remember we wouldn't have half the devices we have today if Apple didn't make that gutsy leap.

Apple has a much larger enemy than Verizon... it's called Google. Remember, Steve didn't sit there and bash Verizon in his Town Hall, but he did bash Google. Likewise, Google is quickly going multi-carrier... they are full out taking Apple on with Android devices on AT&T. The Nexus One is on it's way there, check your FCC filings on it.

Now, if Google, a relative n00b to the cell phone world, can get multi-carrier this quick, why is it taking Apple so long?

GSM vs. CDMA? Rrrrrrriiiiiiggggghhhhhttttt. I don't know for sure, but how much do you want to bet that there's been CDMA prototypes of the iPhone from Day 1 working on the Infinite Loop campus? Remember Project Marklar? That's the Intel builds of Mac OS X that existed from Day 1. Remember, right from the words of Steve Jobs himself, "Mac OS X is processor independent." It ran on PowerPC, ran from the beginning on x86, and was easily adopted to ARM. So, if that's Apple's modus operandi, why would they make the iPhone software dependent on GSM? I'm betting the work is already done... and I'm betting concepts of every iPhone have been running on CDMA, it makes perfect sense because UMTS itself is a variant of CDMA, if not for Qualcomm's work on UMTS, 3G would be nonexistent except for Qualcomm's CDMA2000. Apple itself has put out hiring notices for CDMA/EVDO engineers, now why would they have hired people to create this technology if they don't release it at some point?

Sure, Verizon could be playing hardball here in negotiations. They'd be foolish to do it they way they're bleeding customers. Make no mistake, the real enemy here is Google, and Verizon is a means to an end. It's a means to further hurt Google. If the VZ/Google partnership is eroded, that makes Google a nomad and it really screws their ability to spread Android.
post #30 of 52
Did it ever occur to you guys that nothing has been announced for verizon so as not to eat into AT&T/Apple profits? im sure Apple/VZW have something up their sleeve and both will be released together this summer and shock the U.S.
post #31 of 52
There are two reasons why I haven't gotten another iPhone since I bought the 1st generation iPhone. The first is I haven't been impressed enough to get the 2nd or 3rd generation models. The fact that the iPhone is still lacking true multi capabilities is bad. The iPhone is the only smart phone on the market that doesn't do this now. CNET News has pointed this out numerous times. The second reason is AT&T. I hate them and will not sign another contract with them. There signal sucks half of the time, calls drop and I get voicemails from missed calls 30 minutes after the call was made most of the time. Thank god my current contract is up with them now. If the 4th generation comes out to be a disappointment like the last two I may be moving on to another brand of smart phone that works with the Verizon network. I hope Apple does come to there senses and signs a deal with Verizon. Their pride will hurt them in the end if they do not and Google will continue to prevail over the iPhone because that is most likely what I will get next.
post #32 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleGreen View Post


Steve will never deal with Verizon. When he first came to them for a deal, they turned him down. Now, it's "I'll destroy you, Verizon."

I wouldn't go that far, but Verizon's CEO will have to kneel and kiss Steve's ring before a deal can be done.
post #33 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by TripAcez View Post

Did it ever occur to you guys that nothing has been announced for verizon so as not to eat into AT&T/Apple profits? im sure Apple/VZW have something up their sleeve and both will be released together this summer and shock the U.S.

I have a 3g didn't want to upgrade to the "S" because of AT&T...heard the rumours of a possible Verizon iphone and immediately started making plans for an upgrade this summer. It's so bad my iphone is an expensive ipod touch. Too frustrating! Tempted to buy a palm pre (Verizon) to use as a phone and keep the iphone for music if Verizon doesn't happen.
I wonder if Apple has any idea of subscribers would prefering AT&T to go away.
post #34 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleGreen View Post

There was a study done recently (and reported in the New York Times) that AT&T's network is better overall (except perhaps in NY city and San Fran) than Verizon's. And, AT&T's problems were partly because of the iPhone.

Verizon has got everyone brainwashed as a result of their heavy advertising.

Budwieser used to advertise it was the best beer "in the world"! Spin Spin Spin.
I live in L.A. wear headphones sit at my desk and attempt to talk with my iphone. The phone doesn't move - the bars dance and it is overall frustrating repeating myself. The AT&T tech told me to turn off 3G so I did?!?! The improvement was negligible. Finally gave up being cool, and use a land line.
post #35 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by iBill View Post

I wouldn't go that far, but Verizon's CEO will have to kneel and kiss Steve's ring before a deal can be done.

Intel's CEO dressed up in a bunny suit for the Apple keynote.

Business is business.
post #36 of 52
A Verizon iPhone wont happen. Verizon rejected the iPhone originally and then attacked it in a series of ads.

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post #37 of 52
It wouldn't surprise me if Apple hedged its bets while talking up AT&T, only to switch suddenly. E.g., the Intel conversion.

This line of thinking leads me to suspect that the iPad actually has the hardware for 1700MHz (T-Mobile's 3G)--but it's just disabled in firmware. When the middle of the year comes along: AT&T exclusivity ends, new iPhone with all GSM bands, oh, and the iPad actually has been hardware-capable of T-Mobile 3G all along. We just didn't tell anyone because we were under exclusivity.

Even if the above is a pipe dream, you can be sure that hardware designs (and tested prototypes) exist for CDMA and 1700MHz supporting iPhones and iPads, whether Steve hates Verizon or not. Steve may carry grudges but he's not an idiot.

Heck, Apple may come out with a CDMA device that isn't an "iPhone" (nudge, wink) just to adhere to the letter of the exclusivity agreement with AT&T while flouting the spirit of it.

In the meantime I'll keep using Android on T-Mobile. Maybe one day Apple will sell a multiband unlocked iPhone.
post #38 of 52
Ok. I work at Verizon. So, let me break the news to everyone.
APPLE WILL NEVER MAKE AN iPHONE FOR VERIZON CDMA.
If you haven't heard, Verizon is switching to LTE (4G) network.
It's being tested in a few cities now, and has been for a while.

CDMA is a DYING network. Verizon is "trying" to have LTE going strong in select cities by end of 2010, and will "try" to have it complete by end of 2011.
When LTE is up and running, then you might see an iPhone on Verizon. Until then you don't need a 60 page report to tell you it's NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

Reason 2 iphone will Never go to Verizon CDMA. You can't use Data and Voice at SAME TIME.
Some say big deal, but to me it is. I talk with my wife while at lunch,(only have 30 min) and surf the web to catch up on things while talking.
Why would apple make a phone for a network that being replaced as we speak?

Did Apple make the new iPad Verizon compatible? No, and it's not even a released product! Then why would they make the iPhone for Verizon?


As for my service with AT&T, it's Great. I have rollover, so I never have to worry about minutes. My 3G, where I live, is flawless.
Most important to me... I do not have to call customer service every freaking bill cycle because my bill had charges I didn't expect!

If you missed it. I work at Verizon and get a BIG discount but choose to carry a full priced family plan thru AT&T instead.
post #39 of 52
These kind of devices are at the start of the standard S-curve for new technologies. There are still many different standards (as there were at the start of the PC) but it is thinning out already and the growth phase has begun. In this phase, volume is most important.

The situation is of course slightly different than the beginning of the PC-era because all these new technologies (iPhone OS, Android, Chrome) already share a large part (internet protocols and standards), but I would say that even if it gets Apple more profit to stay with AT&T (and worldwide with other exclusive carriers) they have to decide not to milk the cow too much but to expand the number of cows as fast as they can.

If the data-only plan for iPad with VoIP-apps takes hold, we will see the end of voice-specific service anyway.

Maybe that is what will happen anyway : iPhone and iPad move to data only with VoIP functionality for voice.
post #40 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by iDid View Post

Ok. I work at Verizon. So, let me break the news to everyone.
APPLE WILL NEVER MAKE AN iPHONE FOR VERIZON CDMA.
If you haven't heard, Verizon is switching to LTE (4G) network.
It's being tested in a few cities now, and has been for a while.

CDMA is a DYING network. Verizon is "trying" to have LTE going strong in select cities by end of 2010, and will "try" to have it complete by end of 2011.
When LTE is up and running, then you might see an iPhone on Verizon. Until then you don't need a 60 page report to tell you it's NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

Reason 2 iphone will Never go to Verizon CDMA. You can't use Data and Voice at SAME TIME.
Some say big deal, but to me it is. I talk with my wife while at lunch,(only have 30 min) and surf the web to catch up on things while talking.
Why would apple make a phone for a network that being replaced as we speak?

Did Apple make the new iPad Verizon compatible? No, and it's not even a released product! Then why would they make the iPhone for Verizon?


As for my service with AT&T, it's Great. I have rollover, so I never have to worry about minutes. My 3G, where I live, is flawless.
Most important to me... I do not have to call customer service every freaking bill cycle because my bill had charges I didn't expect!

If you missed it. I work at Verizon and get a BIG discount but choose to carry a full priced family plan thru AT&T instead.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but won't dozens of millions of people have CDMA phones in their pocket for YEARS? Most people don't upgrade until the have a new free phone or even longer, ie two to three years. For example, most people over 30. My parents and other family have 3 or 4 year old phones. I only do it every 2 years when it's free. So just because LTE is turned on doesn't mean CDMA is turned off. Unless I'm wrong? Is VZ going to give everyone new free LTE phones? That just doesn't seem to make sense... I imagine it will be several years before there are more LTE users than CDMA, right? It's like the transition from PPC to intel or OS 9 to OS X. Or XP to Win 7. Takes time. Years.

edit. it really does appear VZ is on track on LTE, they say they're opening in 30 markets for LTE in a few months, covering 100 million people. Wow, I guess an Apple iPhone with VZ LTE could come this summer! I just wonder what kind of contract obligation Apple and AT&T have. \
http://news.vzw.com/LTE/Overview.html
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