Bill Gates unimpressed by Apple iPad - Page 7

I see huge potential for the iPad, but not out of the starting blocks. When post-1.0 versions offer USB input, play Flash, and run multiple apps concurrently, it'll be a winner.

The iPad could serve at least three roles very effectively at home:

1) Convenient on-the-couch e-reading, web surfing, emailing, and social networking.
2) Superior touch-interface universal IP-remote-control for home entertainment (needs app).
3) Laptop replacement -- with the clever stand and keyboard/mouse plug-in option you could do real work on the iPad. Data storage isn't a problem if you locate files you're not currently working with on a home server or cloud.

I just got a Verizon Palm Pre (couldn't wait any longer for a Verizon iPhone) and I love having several apps open at once and the convenient ease of checking/culling email in my hand instead of on my lap. I'm new to the touch interface, but I'm really liking it. I would find the touch keyboard great for couch computing. To justify an iPad, it needs to replace my laptop; so it needs to have USB input, play Flash, and run multiple apps concurrently.

Your reason for the success of the iPhone is a little oversimplified but sure, I agree. Whether they can carry this over to the iPad is much more interesting. Personally I believe they can and will. But this is just the beginning and where it all gets complicated. I wonder if the iPad experience is so easy (successful) and satisfying for techno luddites, incompetents and complete beginners that they , and the rest of the world become used to and grow to love this simplicity, then what next? Can the model somehow be adapted to the desktop, or rather the mouse and keyboard model? Lets say for arguments sake there is a whole generation that has grown to love the iPhone/pad gui and literally know nothing else. Where will Apple take them? I remember at some point in the distant past Apple had a two or three tiered gui in order of complexity. They also have the widgets and dashboard at the moment (does anybody ever go to the dashboard?). Interesting times ahead for sure. Nothing will happen quickly and at this point nobody knows answer to your question - if Apple can duplicate the iPhone success with the iPad.

In the last year or two we've seen more than half of Apple's revenue come from outside the US. As of last quarter The US was $6B while Europe was $5B with the remaining $4.5B coming from the rest of the world. European growth could push it past the US' revenue this year.

True. I am very curious to see just how powerful the A4 CPU/GPU really is once you go beyond Apple's demos. Keeping in mind that it's not just raw power, but how efficiently you use it. If the A4 is optimized to run things like Core Image, which I assume it is to run all the fancy UI widgets, then something like Aperture would also benefit greatly. Reports so far are that Aperture 3, just released, runs faster on Snow Leopard than on Leopard. So if the iPad OS (perhaps when iPhone OS 4.0 is released) is based on Snow Leopard, then that would also help.

But I'm curious as to your impression of slow/fast, because my 8 MB 20D RAW images seem to process in a timely manner on my lowly MBP with 4 GB of RAM. Granted, I don't do a ton of post processing as I try to get the image right when the shutter releases. The biggest bottleneck is my MBP's slow hard drive, which wouldn't be an issue with the iPad because it's flash storage should be faster than a hard drive.

I would agree that layering tons of adjustments and brushes on your image might be slow on an iPad, but how much of that type of PP are you going to be doing in the field? The ability to view, sort, and tag photos on the spot would be great. All of that only requires that you view the JPEG previews of your RAW images (which, granted, need to be generated when you import and that could be slow on the iPad). And that should be speedy, even with limited processing power. So based on your description of how you use your laptop in the field, an iPad would seem to meet the need and be smaller, lighter, with longer battery life. And Aperture's new project syncing/merging seems ready-made for an iPad to "check out" a project to take and share with a client at their location.

Anyway...just kind of ranting at this point. But iAperture would be enough reason for me to get an iPad.

Whether or not Steve Jobs actually wrote a program himself is completely irrelevant. In fact, history has shown again and again that Jobs' non programmer insight is his greatest asset. His ability to see how technology and people interact has been far more valueable than the insight of Bill Gates. In other words; Steve Jobs has been right about tech a lot more than Bill Gates has. That's the truth. Fact is, almost every product that Apple has released since Jobs' return has been a hit. The same cannot be said about Bill Gates.

What a meaningless rant.

Actually Gates and friends practically swindled some guy who developed DOS out of the OS for fifty grand, when Microsoft had a million dollar contract lined up with IBM. To his credit, he later hired the guy at Microsoft.

Further, Jobs isn't a great engineering talent, but to say he never developed, engineered, or designed anything is a bit inaccurate. He played a heavy part in much of the development & design of Apple products. He also appears on patents, such as the original iMac.

Apple is going a different route. They will add multitasking over time probably, but I don't see USB.

Yes, insecurity here is most surprising. Sometimes, I think I can almost smell fear... which is so ridiculous considering how well Apple is doing.

BG admitting iPad is success even before it started shipping would be as probable as BG admitting he believes SJ is new earthly incarnation of Jesus Christ. Not going to happen. Why encouraging people to buy competitor's product? If/when iPad becomes success, BG will play sport and congratulate Apple... but that is not going to be anything more than stating the obvious.

And why are you people so surprised? Has SJ ever complemented anything from competition - anything at all?

I don't think he is actually doing that work himself. Someone else is moving him around the floor.

mid-sized? I think only New York has more than 5 million in its city limits...

What? Chicago and Los Angeles don't even have 5 million people. What 'mid-sized' cities in the US have around 5 million people?

If you could care less, then that begs the question, how much less could you care and of course, being in a position to care less implies you do care to some extent, otherwise you couldn't care less, now could you.

So if you don't mind my asking, how much do you care and how much less could you care, being as you could care less?

It's a bit of back to the future. The Mac UI as it was originally conceived was far more simplified than it became ultimately, even by the time the Mac was finally released. If Jef Raskin were alive today, I wonder what he'd think of the iPhone and iPad UI. He was an advocate of simplicity, a concept that pretty much got lost in the effort to make computers all-purpose devices. I suspect he'd feel somewhat vindicated. But as you say, I think many if not most are missing the potential significance of the iPad. It could change the way people think about how they interface with computing devices. That could be next wave.

In the end it doesn't mater what Steve is other than "successful". Whether he coded it himself or inspired someone else to carry out his vision, his mark on the world of technology is self evident.

i'm not saying Microsoft hasn't had a mark on the world of technology, and you can get into value arguments as to the good or bad of the respective companies impact all you want - but to imply that Steve is less important because he isn't a "true geek" is... well, flat out stupid.

And completely missing the point. Like most tech pundants, including Gates. The iPad will succeed because of all thing things the digerati are decrying it for not having - it's not aimed at them, it's aimed at people like my dad (or heck, me when I get home at night). An information appliance you pick up and it just works for a set number of tasks. It isn't meant to replace a general purpose computer, but augment one - yet for some people like my dad, it will be the only "computing device" they need.

It's brilliantly positioned and will do just fine despite all the hysterics to the contrary...

Raskin was smart. But I think the Canon Cat and "leap" keys proved he wasn't the ultimate authority on user interface design.

What is certainly true is that the iPad is much closer to a true computing appliance than any other device I can think of.

C.

When one understands how many of those zero's were acquired, I think the appropriate weight to his comments are then applied.


Looking at just one aspect of a person to gauge credibility is the truly foolish act.

Shoehorned? Did you even watch the introduction video? It's not just a bigger iPod Touch (which further calls into question the use of the term "shoehorn") - there are substantive changes to the touch UI to take advantage of the larger screen size, and I have a feeling we have only seen a sampling of what Apple has up their sleeve.


You were expecting unicorns and free pony's, no doubt. Care to define what "innovative" means to you?

Hint: A list of features isn't innovative

It is thinner but other dimensions don't really differ much from average 10" netbook. I tend do prefer netbook thickness as a price for much better protected screen, plus a benefit of keyboard... but that might just be my old-fashioness.


No, not for me. While I agree need for Flash might be personal, I definitely need it today.


True. I'm not sure if it is really better than iPhone Stanza - for text books (novels), I'd prefer iPhone pocketability. For graphics-rich content, no contest.


True.


Matter of taste. iTunes, Winamp, WMP, VLC play audio fine. Some will play other media as well. iPad is also too big to be portable player and replace iPod/iPhone. For in-house use, well... I've noticed lots of my friends are moving toward music videos instead of just audio.


True, if you need such feature.


Eh? I always thought iTunes is limiting my media sharing a lot. I guess this is also matter of taste, but I prefer to drag and drop whatever I want from my home server over my home wireless, than to sync. Additionally, I don't have to worry about media formats.


Um... OK... (?)


How about we see games for iPad first? I don't have impression it is more game-capable than, say, dual core Atom with Ion graphics, but at the end of the day, it all boils down to available games. PS2 was hardware wise much inferior to original XBOX, yet ended up much superior platform overall.


Better form, but without DivX/XviD support, functionality is far from netbook.


Definitely.


Ouch... never thought about Internet device on kitchen wall. I'm getting old!


We have already covered that, haven't we?


I am being honest, and I am sure you are as well. It is just that our expectations, based on our habits (and lots of other factors) are not the same.

Some great point there.

Um, you are actually trying to be serious? As far as media streaming devices go, I think the X-Box 360 sales dwarf the Apple TV sales, and the PS3 sales dwarf the Apple TV sales.

I had pretty much given up on this thread until I saw these two posts. Made it all worthwhile. Thanks guys!

You do know you're wrong, right? I suppose not, but then I'd assumed you'd have not shot your mouth off if you had been in NeXT/Apple Engineering design labs where prototyping took/takes place.

Software programming is NOT ENGINEERING. Get it through your brain.

Bill Gates oversaw his products and prototypes while driving the direction he saw for each product.

Paul Allen was the software head and founder of Microsoft [Bill's Boss] before they screwed him out of it. He's the programming genius.

Steve Jobs does know how to write some ObjC and he's got decades of industrial design input.

He also designed the NeXT Computer Inc Robotic Assembly Plant. It was his vision to the core. He picked out the materials, the assembly systems he wanted installed and how they all worked together.

He hired the talent to assemble it under his specs.

Did he come up with the design of the iMac? Yes. He took his look to Ive and they co-designed it down to the finished product.

He drove it just like he drove every design at NeXT and every design at Apple with Ive refining his vision.

Did Ive actually Engineer anything? No. He's an Industrial Designer. He's akin to the Architect who then passes it off to the Structural Engineer who invalidates his work throughout the process until it's structurally sound.

Did Ive design the implementation of any IC boards? No. He designed a layout of how he wanted the basic Mac Pro tower to look and worked with Engineers to refine the look--all then refined by Jobs.

People call him a visionary because he's got his hands into how he wants all the products to look and work.

Far be it for Mr Gates to praise the competition, but a keyboard would ruin the premise of the device. The sense of touch makes for an impressive UI, and idea behind how people should interact with their devices. While it is lacking in features, I reckon using it will be an enjoyable experience. I'm looking forward to seeing what developers do with it though.

For an awful lot of people it will be the only 'computer' they'll need at home. Not just the 'moms' and 'dads', either. I bring my laptop home ever day but by the time I have time to collapse on the couch most days all I would need is the pad. I'd say 80% of my home computing does not require a powerful machine.

I couldn't disagree more. There are plenty of times where I don't need, nor do I want a keyboard. If I do need or want a real physical keyboard, with the iPad I can optionally have it. It's up to me. With a netbook, I have no choice - it's always there. And 99% of the time it's a pretty inferior keyboard and not much of an advantage.

Give that, your comment about an optional case is even more ironic and silly...


Yeah, well there are very few netbooks where having physical keys are much of an advantage either. I like the touch keyboard on my iPhone - now that I am used to how autocorrection works, I can type out messages and notes pretty efficiently The extra space on the iPad will be most welcome. In landscape mode I think touch typing, after a little practice, will be fairly easy. Just like the Palm Pre - for all the fuss over having "real" keys, once it shipped for all but users with the smallest hands they keyboard was basically unusable.

That's the key word - useable. If the right compromises are made, usability doesn't suffer. The problem with netbooks is everything on them is whacked with no focus on overall usability - it's all about size and cost. I would laugh when the whole netbook thing was ramping up and these techies on podcasts would gush about how great netbooks were and then go on and on about all the ways they upgraded them - for what they spent when they got done they could have had a real laptop with a real processor and a really useful keyboard. Talk about ironic...

But the entry price was cheap

And people joke about Jobs and Apple selling style over substance? Sheesh, the whole netbook phenomenon in general is just ridiculous. Yes, people who like to hack around love them, but the average consumer tends to get frustrated with them - I've dealt with the fallout of them with friends and family so I know the difference between geek lust and everyone else.

Everyone else is going to eat up the iPad - esp. when they start circulating and people see what the experience is about. Netbooks don't stand a chance.

In regards to the point regarding how the iPad will fare for gaming compared to a netbook, it's not about processing power. It's about how much more engaging a game becomes when you interact with it on a device like the iPad. Horsepower, FPS, etc. is beside the point, assuming of course that the iPad is powerful enough to run a particular game in a reasonable manner. Then again, being as the only games you'll be able to play on this device will have been designed either for weaker devices like the Touch/iPhone or specifically for the iPad, chances are the hardware will be up to the task.

Actually, I think he is spot on and definitely not alone. And for the real irony, you just did the same thing where a PM would have sufficed

Average geek does all that. Average Joe (which I believe is more of Average Person definition) doesn't really read much nowadays, TV is major source of information and entertainment. Likewise for the others.

We are talking about Homer Simpson type of average person.

You'll still need a computer, portable or desktop, for that other 20 per cent. But the advantage of the iPad is that since it's not designed to do that other 20 per cent of work, few compromises are needed in the form of a heavier form factor or poorer battery life.

Also, the iPad is really platform independent. A PC owner could supplement their PC with the iPad so you don't have to buy an Apple to complete the product chain.

I'm an Apple fan, but I wasn't blown away by the iPad Keynote.

However, I get what Apple is doing. Apple is building a product family that encompasses a number of categories, but that doesn't overload on SKUs.

The iPad is designed to scale. It's a generic device that can be either a very simple tool (read: reader) or a companion device to other more sophisticated products. Not everyone will want one or need one, but for those people who need that device between a phone and computer, Apple will have the best product in that category.

As for Mr. Gates comments...

Who wants a stylus? Who wants a fixed keyboard that will determine orientation and break up the clean lines of the screen. Who wants a fixed keyboard that has little parts that break or that catch moisture or debris?

Whenever I hear Mr. Gates or Mr. Ballmer comment on an Apple product, they always try to cast it as something that is poorly conceived or unlikely to gain any traction. They never point to something they have that is better. They never demonstrate why they are leading the industry in new directions.

That's your third plonk and an excellent idea.

<plonk>!

Ah, yes - we get spoiled easily

I shoot a lot and usually return from a week-long trips with around 1000 NEFs.

Just importing and creating previews in Lightroom takes enough time to motivate me to minimize Lightroom and do something else - or simply leave computer alone to do it. Likewise exporting to JPG. Oh, it doesn't take that long (I'll actually stopwatch it next time) but as I run process and check on progress bar, I always decide it is not worth sitting and just waiting for it to finish

Another interesting question is how fast is iPad's flash disk. If it is something like iPhone 3Gs speed, I'd say it is still much slower than HDD, even 5400rpm... especially write speeds. If it is fast as proper SSD, that would be different story...

Or what: Until the iPad they really didn't have a viable alternative. Linux? Mac OSX? In their own ways, more of the same. What is unique about the iPad is for the first time you have a device that hit's 98% of what casual users want without all the "techie overhead" of a general purpose computer, but's not overly restricted like previous attempts at appliance computing (WebTV anyone?).

It has balance and usability. In short it's perfect for the majority of people who just want to do certain things and not worry about the care and feeding of a "computer". That is why the iPad is significant. The fact that people like you don't get it just re-enforces how well Apple has hit the mark with the iPad.

Ouch, I should refresh my geography knowledge

Somehow I thought NY, LA, SF, Chicago... are nowadays orbiting toward 10 mils.

Err... Metropolis? Gotham City?

My bad.

So to prove that nerds aren't the only one's who are unenthused by the iPad, you mirrored a nerdcomic. My GOD - that's profound.

The more I hear nerds bitch and moan - the more I want this thing. If people who think Linux Ubuntu installations are a good time can't stand the iPad, then I want it even more.

But hey - they were right before - their Blackberry just PWNED the iPhone. Oh ya - instant FAIL. LOLcats. Pedobear. 4chan. Whatever.

But that's exactly what excites me about the iPad for my parents. All they want to do is read email, visit a few web sites and my mother want's quicken. That's pretty much it! I don't see my mom giving up her iMac, but I see the iPad as being perfect for my father who mainly wants to send email to his friends and occasionally read some web sites. Well, that and read newspapers or magazines - he actually asked me about electronic books on the iPad - you could have knocked me over with a feather. When my 72 year old father starts asking about ebooks and electronic newspapers on an iPad that had only been announced for two days (and I hadn't talked with them about it yet) you know Apple is getting broad penetration.

I think far more "average" people get it than the tech press wants to admit.

I wonder what's going to happen when all the people who have never seen an IPAD start to see them on television shows. I see shows like Bones and CSI New York pull out a tablet PC to demonstrate something to their co-workers. They generally show the actor holding the tablet while some graphic display is flashing on the screen. But they never really show them actively using it in a meaningful way.

Now along comes the iPad. Producers, directors and actors see this sexy, sleek device with over 140,000 apps available for it out the gate. They see their friends and family start to use them. They start to use them in their shows. Everyone starts to ask what is it they are using. Apple gets free advertising.

The point I'm trying to make is I have seen tablets used in TV shows for years and I have never felt the urge to get one. They looked bulky and clumsy and difficult to use. I have no reservations about the iPad. I immediately want one. It just feels right and I haven't held one yet.

So if TV shows start using them in their programs and this makes this device more popular, I wonder what Bill Gates would think about this? After all, his tablets were seen for years on TV shows and nothing seriously happened in sales. If the iPad becomes the trendy device to show off in your TV show, that development could not and would not make him happy. It's difficult to predict the future. But I'm willing to put up my vision of it against Bill's vision when I say the iPad will be a huge success.

I just ordered http://eshop.macsales.com/shop/inter..._SSD_Sandforce for my Mac Pro. If it works as well a the reviews say it does (esp. with OSX's lack of TRIM support) I will be getting one for my MBP - along with the kit to boot the optical drive and move my hard drive over in it's place for data file storage.


No doubt! For rapid tagging and initial sorting, the iPad would be huge. Esp. if you attached audio notes


"Your ideas are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter."

Here's to hoping - that's a tantalizing vision! Hopefully it won't take 3 years like Aperture 3 did - although I do think much of Aperture 3 was hung up by SL. It is indeed an interesting an exciting time to be into digital photography!