Strong Mac, iPhone sales projected to propel Apple stock to $280

I doubt it will get that high.

I doubt it will be that low.

So by his own admission we can pretty much ignore him on iPad figures, then.

At least until it ships, yes.

My bet is that Apple sell twice as many iPad's as they currently sell Mac's, within 5 years.

Yes, the iPad will cannibalize some Mac and iPod Touch Sales, but much more importantly, it will steal significant market share from M$, especially from the netbook category.

Are you saying it will bleed Mac sales?

$280 by when?
And how long has it been under $200?

You mean "....$9.93 earnings per share to Apple's aggregate EPS during this period." (Although the aggregate EPS is somewhat of a meaningless metric, that is the only comparison that makes sense).

1) February 30, 2011.

2) For almost its entire existence as a stock.

They were predicting it would be at 250-270 three months ago and all it has done is go down. As low as 192 in the last three months. Its still under 200 it will stay close to that if not lower. Apple is following the market trend and will continue to do so. Everyday the Nasdaq is up, Apple is up, everyday its down Apple follows.

Apple stock like most are following the market. It has no chance to even come close to 280 in this market. Has nothing to do with Apple just the simple fact most stocks in this economy are following the daily/monthly market trend.

OMG- you actually have a sense of humor?

There will be cannibalisation, but the extra hype that the iPad creates will equate to even more mac sales. So it will cancel out.

eg a few of my friends will not bother buying a macbook and will instead choose an iPad
on the flip, the few remaining PC users that I know are now taking the plunge to Apple's ecosystem and buying an iPad. I have no doubt that once the tasty fruits have been savoured, a large percentage will go on to ditch their PC's altogether and buy mac.

Those are some rosy colored glasses you are wearing this morning. That sounds more like $380.

You are right.

I was originally considering a MacBook Air for home and on the go use. Now I'll get an iPad for mobile use, and get a Mac mini for home use. Both will cost me less than the MacBook Air.

You know, I've been thinking (no laughs please) and I think the iPad will do amazing business with those over 60 who aren't technologicaly inclined. You could buy your parents/granparents an iPad , pay for their 3G contract and they would be good to go. And once they can print easily from them it will be instoppable. Imagine the peer pressure in places like Florida.

Will you get a 3G version?

Yes.
And don't play on me that $30 * 24 = OMG it is expensive!

I would have gotten a 3G USB for the MacBook Air. I NEED on the go Internet.

Do you feel an iPad will suit your needs if you were considering a Macbook Air? You are going from a product that is a fully functioning system to something that runs the iPhone OS. From a dual core system to something less powerful then a netbook. And from a 13.3 inch screen to a 9.7. Just to name a few differences. You also won't be able to multitask and depending on what iworks looks like for the iPad you might not even have a full version of an office suite.

Honestly just asking because that seem like a fairly big step down.

Not speaking for him, but I could see why many people would: the price difference.

Moreover, I see the iPad's success as not a substitute, but as a complement.

As I said I'll be also getting a Mac mini.

Here the many reasons I decided to go for an iPad instead of a MacBook Air:

1. Weighs 50% less
2. 2x the battery life
3. More portable
4. Boots in under 15 seconds
5. Easier to use when on the bus

I understand what I'm sacrificing and they don't bother me.

Battery life will be nice. I am just hoping the iPhone 4.0 gets some added features like third party app multitasking. I would have liked Flash but I can live without that but I really would like multitasking.

The new Mini's are really a step up from the last few models so those should work rather well for you.

Also not speaking for him, sometimes less is more. Specifically, when there are a bunch of features that I don't use, whether in an OS X laptop or M$ Word or a VCR, these extra features actually detract from the user experience and from those features that I do use. Apple helps people focus by leaving things out. Just as there are plenty of people who only use 10% of M$ Word, there are plenty of people who only use %10 of a laptop's capabilities. The iPad addresses this market beautifully.

The iPad doesn't pretend to be a general purpose computer, it doesn't want to be a general purpose computer, so it's rather silly to criticize it for not being one. Those people who need general purpose computers should buy one, but they shouldn't assume that everybody else also needs all the capabilities and associated complexity of a general purpose computer.

haha funny you say that, I'm thinking of buying one for my mum who is 65 and has never touched a computer in her life.

Another one of my friends who has never touched a computer EVER is also buying an iPad. Thats an astonishing feat, honestly this girl is prehistoric, and even she wants one.

Thats why I was asking because he was going to use the iPad as a substitute going from a Macbook Air to the iPad. Seems like a pretty big drop. The iPad meets my needs in alot of ways as an addon but I really don't want something that can't multitask. I know that has been brought up alot and it the term is getting old but for me right now it would keep me from getting one. I am hoping iPhone 4.0 will address that issue. I also believe the 16GB version isn't going to last long at all and the 32GB will drop to 499.00 fairly fast. Not that I really see 100.00 for double the storage as being all that much.

What won't happen is the iPad cannibalizing Mac sales.

What he doesn't realize is that the iPad, iPhone, and iPod all support the sale of a Mac. They do not replace a Mac, they are complementary. If anything, they require the person to buy a Mac.

Thus the iPad would accelerate Mac sales.

For every iPad sold, there is going to be an increase in Mac sales.

In the next year or ever?



I think that is very likely, even much sooner. It is half the price as a MB. What's Apple estimate for the first year? 4M? That is what Mac sales will likely be at by the holidays.



This is the first time I've seen you admit that the market as a whole affects the stocks. Tech stocks tend to act react quickly to market changes. If the market booms this year we could easily see a 40% increase in a year for Apple. Note that they went from about $85 to $210 in the last year while the NASDAQ has less than doubled in that same time frame.



I really wold love a 3G card option in Mac notebooks. At least in the MBA. This device screaming for it

The impact the iPad will have on sales is very difficult to judge. You will still need a computer to back it up I assume? As well as to update system software. With the limited (and volitile) memory no one will have one of these without some form of main CPU.

I would guess it will decrease notebook sales a good bit (really makes the macbook airs already small market niche virtually disappear), but might encourage a large increase in desktop sales or shift to the heavy end of the notebook realm (i.e. less macbooks 13s and alot more macbook pro 17s).

Not that they have any qualms about being wildly wrong, but I would hate to be an analyst trying to handicap this thing.

I am fairly certainly I have posted that a good bit on this forum when projections like this are made.

I have said many times the reality of the market is there is no reality...lol. Everything is based on perception. Steve Jobs could get a cold and Apple stock could drop 10 points. Its that crazy at times and makes no sense.

With as well as Apple is doing in a good economy their stock could hit these targets but not with the market in this state of panic all the time. Apple like most are a victim of the market right now.

That target price chart is a sick joke for Apple. Every time Apple stock got upgraded it went down, down and down. Same thing happened today. It appears that Apple stock may have an artificial ceiling of about $200 a share. Although it did touch $215 a share briefly this year and then quickly slid down again below $200 . I'll give it some allowance since the DJIA lost about 400 points over that time. Considering how far down the DJIA has dropped since December 2007, I guess Apple has fared relatively well.

For maybe the first time ever I agree with you, about the unreality of stock valuation -- in the short to medium term, anyway. Looking for logic in the markets is (to borrow the term) an exercise in futility. But in the end, and over the long haul, earnings will out over emotions, and stocks tend to be priced, in some way, on EPS.

Now, all that being said, AAPL's P/E has been in substantial decline for the last couple of years, meaning that the stock price has been flat even as earnings have soared. If AAPL was selling for the same P/E today as it was two years ago, the stock would already be at around $400. The aggregated P/E for the markets as a whole have also declined a lot during this time period, but not that much.

Good luck trying to figure out what the markets are saying collectively. AlI I can say based on the numbers is that AAPL could easily be at $280 if market sentiments changed significantly, if only because that would only return AAPL's P/E to something closer to but still below its recent average.

I think the second above quoted post, in response to the first, sums up perfectly the mindset of those who just don't understand what the iPad is, as well as where and how it will fit into peoples lives.

Most people don't need a laptop (used in the broad sense of including all portable devices with a hinged screen and keyboard, so including MBAs, MBPs, traditional PC laptops and netbooks) when they are "mobile". We already see this with the number of people who have laptops but mostly leave them at home and use smartphones to do the things they need to do. Very few people actually need the functionality a laptop provides when away from home and work. Even fewer people (perhaps none) need the functionality of a laptop in the living room or kitchen (assuming for the sake of argument that the desk/table/whatever where they do the bulk of their "serious" computing is not located in one of those rooms in their home). The very few people who do need this functionality are that tiny minority of relatively mobile content creators: writers, programmers, graphic artists, etc. who are either often "on the road" or for whom the ability to do creative work anywhere, at any time, is critical.

For everyone else, hauling a laptop around, or, I should say, having to haul a heavy, bulky, awkward-to-use-without-a-desk-or-table-top laptop around is entirely disadvantageous. A smartphone that fits in your pocket is the ultimate in convenience and portability, but the relatively tiny screen size makes these far less than ideal in all situations. A touch tablet overcomes the disadvantages of both of these and, for the type of computing that the vast majority of users do when not at home, has few, if any disadvantages.

A touch tablet also frees the user from being chained to a flat work surface, so it's perfect for web browsing, checking email, sketching, reading, etc. from the comfort of your couch or for consulting a recipe in the kitchen, or reading the New York Times at a coffee shop. The iPad is the embodiment of casual, ubiquitous, natural computing: so natural and simple that the computer effectively disappears.

With an iPad you aren't really giving up any functionality, because you weren't using that functionality anyway. In other words, with a laptop, most people are just hauling this cumbersome device around to do exactly what an iPad is designed to do without the inconveniences of a laptop.

For some people -- people who either don't own a computer now, or who own one but never use but for web surfing and maybe email -- an iPad may be all they need. For those who do need to "do serious work" on a computer, it makes much more sense to have a "desktop" with a large screen (or screens) that maximizes productivity on their desk at home and in the office, and an iPad for use around and outside the house, as well as for professionals who do not work in a traditional office environment, but are frequently not at desks -- e.g., doctors and (laboratory) scientists.

The laptop has had a good run, but I think its popularity is coming to an end. But, although many people will buy iPads instead of laptops, most of those people will also buy desktops. So while the iPad may appear to cannibalize laptop sales, it will actually be shifting those sales to dual form factors of desktop and tablet, because this combination maximizes both productivity and convenience.

Those comparing iPads to laptops simply don't understand what the iPad is, nor what a laptop is.

I agree about multitasking. That would be a deal-breaking attribute for me.

Flash, webcam, etc are somewhat unimportant to me.

I agree. I don't see myself having a need to do a video conference using the iPad. Cameras and webcams in general are fairly useless to me. I'm not sure I have ever even used my webcam on my MBP.

You looking to get an iPad farily soon after its released or are you going to wait it out a bit?

I agree if the Apple had reported these earnings and sales when the market was at 14,000, not sure what the Nasdaq was at the stock would have jumped a good bit. The market is just flat as hell right now because of the uncertainty of the US government. Everytime Obama opens his mouth I know my 401k is going to drop..lol

Every time when some analysts started bulling the target price on AAPL, you know it's about time to retreat. The next 52-week high maybe after 2011. AAPL would look more attractive when it dips to 2- digit range.

I believe current skeptics will think much differently in 6-12 months when we'll understand more of how functional this iPad truly is. I predict it'll meet and/or surpass the functionality of most laptops within 12 months. Just wait. Though it's hard to see at this point in time, the iPad has HUGE potential.

SOOOO True! \