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Palm stock plummets after poor sales force company to lower guidance - Page 2

post #41 of 72
Palm needs to offer a device more comparable with the iPhone and Android handsets with a full touch screen and software keyboard. They could do a slide keyboard like the Droid but only offering the Pixi and Pre is a big mistake. Lots of people don't want a physical keyboard these days now that multi-touch software keyboards with good auto-correction are just as good or better for lots of people.
post #42 of 72
Palm's business model is what doomed them. You cannot build a profitable hardware/software platform unless you sell millions of units annually. I can't even begin to imagine what Palm's break-even is. How in the heck is Palm going to do this in a market crowded with other vertically integrated competitors like Apple and RIM and horizontal players like Microsoft and Google? Google's mobile handset division is going to find itself in the same mess if they are not careful. The handset manufactures, that license Android, will ensure Google looses money on every handset they sell. In any case, the executives at Palm really need to go back to business school...
post #43 of 72
Unfortunately, Palm will fail due to no real international presence, and absolutely god awful marketing regardless or how good the UI actually is.
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post #44 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by CU10 View Post

I still do that, on my Clie. Calendar, contacts, and some apps.



Too bad, and Sony suddenly discontinued their excellent Clie line. People can still write 68k code on Palms; it makes for a good hobby platform.

Totally. I had/have the NZ90, it's still edge. In fact when the iPhone launched i thought "nice, but except for the phone bit I had something just as good in 2002", a full five years before.

When Sony dropped the Clie range stating "convergence, focusing on Erricson phones" they never clued in what they had. And what they lost.

Did you ever get the accessory that ripped a video source direct to stick for playback on the Clie? Wish I had, gold.
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post #45 of 72
For a smartphone manufacturer, there's only two strategies that will ever lead to success. Either you can be extremely popular in a small number of countries or be quite popular in a large number of countries. So far, Palm has been neither.

I can't comment on Palm's global strategy but they completely botched their UK release. Palm tried to follow Apple's (now dropped) model of carrier exclusivity. Stupidly, they chose to partner with O2 in the UK. At the time of launch, O2 was the exclusive carrier of the iPhone and so Palm had to directly compete against Apple. Palm had an uphill struggle to pull O2 marketing, floor space and subsidising away from the already successful iPhone and toward the unknown Pre.

It's impossible to tell whose decision it was but the Pre was priced to mirror the iPhone. The iPhone in the UK is both expensive upfront and has a high minimum tariff when compared the general market. O2 were able to pull this off with the iPhone because of Apple's brand strength. However, Palm has zero brand awareness in the UK and so obviously failed.
post #46 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

Too little, too late! 'Another one bites the dust!'

I think I saw one maybe two commercials. I mean really. Their marketing and promo stunk. Created no buzz what so ever. Thus the intial surge then the commercials stopped. Not saying that's the only reason but it is one reason.
post #47 of 72
Well, not that I know very much about how it works, but looking at Apple, RIM, MS, Verizon, many others and Palm, I'd say, going your own way and persistence are much better rewarded in the american business, than being a copy-paster.

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post #48 of 72
Such a shame. webOS is one of the best mobile OSes.

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post #49 of 72
Palm failed business plan 101. They shafted there existing Palm OS customers and their new product, the Pre, never had a clear benefit or audience and therefore no compelling reason to exist.

Palm probably thought they were taking the best hardware components from BlackBerry and iPhone and making the ultimate form factor to please everyone. Well guess what you can't please everyone, so what they ended up with was a hybrid compromise that pleased very few people.

The whacked-out ad campaigns are a function of a phone that had no targeted audience and no compelling reason to exist. Look at their competitors: RIM and iPhone have clear benefits and targeted audiences. Verizon have spent a lot of money on the Driod, and M$ are M$ so WinMo7 has a good chance.

The Rube will be heading back to the beach within 18 months and the dick-head at Elevation partners might need to take a calmative and explain to investors how they burned through hundreds of millions of their money.....

Does anyone know how much cash do they burn a month? I doubt they are cash positive, so the slightly delayed Palm death watch continues .....
post #50 of 72
Palm's biggest problem with the Pre was simply that they were undercapitalized. They just didn't have the money necessary to launch the Pre on the scale necessary to really compete with Apple. (of course, the reason they were undercapitalized is all the other mistakes they made prior to the Pre).

But anyway... it looks like the Pre will be the first "iPhone killer" to bite the dust. My guess is that Symbian will be next (although that will take longer -- maybe 2 years). After that, Android. Then we'll be left with Microsoft, Apple, and RIM. My guess is those three will survive and duke it out for a long time to come.

Why do I think Android will fail and Microsoft won't? It has nothing to do with technology and everything to do with the companies involved. I think Google is fundamentally soft. They might have the money and the technology needed to compete, but they don't have the stomach for it. Microsoft has money, technology, and a killer instinct.
post #51 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by walshbj View Post

According to Dan Frommer the failure of Palm means Apple will soon follow down the drain.

Obviously just trying to generate traffic; the ugly side of "journalism" on the web, where the quality of what you write doesn't matter, just how many ad views you can get.

Palm was doomed years ago when they took the advice of the pundits and started licensing Palm OS to clone makers. Their fate was sealed when they allowed themselves to lose control of Palm OS, although, this was the probably inevitable outcome of their first mistake. But, after losing all credibility with developers, consumers and investors, the Pre & WebOS never had a chance. Now they are just a cautionary tale.

And a very sad tale it is. Palm OS and the devices based on it were really the spiritual ancestors of the iPhone with a simple but capable UI and navigation model focused on just getting things done as easily as possible.
post #52 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

My guess is that Symbian will be next (although that will take longer -- maybe 2 years). After that, Android. Then we'll be left with Microsoft, Apple, and RIM. My guess is those three will survive and duke it out for a long time to come.

That's never going to happen.

What you're effectively saying is that the only free/licensable OS will be Windows Mobile. Do you really expect Nokia and the rest of the traditional mobile industry to rally around Windows Mobile? Of course they won't. They don't want to see one company (and one competitor in many cases) with so much power.

There will always be at least two credible operating systems in that space.
post #53 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by rain View Post

I have to agree. I got a chance to play with a Pre once and was blown away by the UI. It looked like something Apple might develop 7 years from now. Very intuitive, the way it handled multi-taksing was quite remarkable.
I wouldn't be surprised if Apple makes a play for Palm.

I could see Apple buying palm for it's patents and talent.
I can't see them buying it just to get their hands on the Web OS interface.
post #54 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by LTMP View Post

I could see Apple buying palm for it's patents and talent.
I can't see them buying it just to get their hands on the Web OS interface.

Absolutely. Palm's patents are what would have any value for Apple. Instantly, Apple would own some critical patents to use against Nokia et al in their ongoing disputes.

Engadget had a good article last year on some of the various patents that Apple and Palm owned and could use against the other (prior to the Nokia lawsuits). Owning the Palm patents mentioned would give Apple a giant leg up against Nokia in their court cases.

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post #55 of 72
The article states that Palm announced that they'd announce $300-400M instead of $1.6B. That sounds like a huge shortfall... except that the $1.6B number was for the year and the $300M was for the quarter. In other words, the two numbers aren't comparable and they didn't revise one to the other.
post #56 of 72
it just makes me mad that Palm made this thing, it killed the iPhone and then commits hari kari!

someone should ask this guy about the killer phone:

http://www.pcworld.com/businesscente...ne_killer.html
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post #57 of 72
Post 57

Where Tekstud? Where Dahader?

When you mix cheap crap, bad marketing, and put in on a network that barely exists this is what you get.
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post #58 of 72
Add Palm to the scrap heap with AOL and Dell. Apple Inc. cannot be beat in the phone OR computer industry!
post #59 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

That's never going to happen.

What you're effectively saying is that the only free/licensable OS will be Windows Mobile. Do you really expect Nokia and the rest of the traditional mobile industry to rally around Windows Mobile? Of course they won't. They don't want to see one company (and one competitor in many cases) with so much power.

There will always be at least two credible operating systems in that space.

Yes, that's basically what I'm saying. I don't see how it's so controversial -- that's what we have in the PC market. Whether the phone manufacturers like the fact that MS will be their only real option isn't really relevant. What matters is what customers (including business customers) want. In the end, I think MS will offer a product that is more appealing to customers (particularly corporate customers) than Android or Symbian.

iPhone will have the consumer market with a strong foothold in business, RIM will have their existing base that will very slowly defect over time (but it will take a long time), and Microsoft will have the corporate customers that RIM doesn't already have (and in the longer run will eventually replace RIM).
post #60 of 72
So, what happens to Palm now? Will elevation partners force them to sell out so they can get their $400 million back?
post #61 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

Yes, that's basically what I'm saying. I don't see how it's so controversial -- that's what we have in the PC market.

Correct. That's what we have in the PC market and that's exactly why Microsoft win this battle. The traditional phone manufacturers don't want to end up like Dell, surviving on razor thin margins. They'll do anything to avoid that situation.

Quote:
Whether the phone manufacturers like the fact that MS will be their only real option isn't really relevant. What matters is what customers (including business customers) want. In the end, I think MS will offer a product that is more appealing to customers (particularly corporate customers) than Android or Symbian.

Business and corporate customers make up a surprisingly small segment of the global market. The iPhone and Symbian have both succeeded without dominance of the business market.

If Android or Symbian can't provide an alternative to Microsoft then someone else will step in. We've already got a situation where manufacturers are inventing their own new smartphone platforms despite the wealth of alternatives available today.

And let's not forget that both Symbian and Android are open source. Even if Nokia and Google respectively decide to stop development, there's always the possibility that someone else will step in. There's no way that Microsoft will be on the only reasonable option.
post #62 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by SinisterJoe View Post

Palm needs to offer a device more comparable with the iPhone and Android handsets with a full touch screen and software keyboard. They could do a slide keyboard like the Droid but only offering the Pixi and Pre is a big mistake. Lots of people don't want a physical keyboard these days now that multi-touch software keyboards with good auto-correction are just as good or better for lots of people.

That's exactly what have been holding me from buying any of their handsets.

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post #63 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

Correct. That's what we have in the PC market and that's exactly why Microsoft win this battle. The traditional phone manufacturers don't want to end up like Dell, surviving on razor thin margins. They'll do anything to avoid that situation.

Business and corporate customers make up a surprisingly small segment of the global market. The iPhone and Symbian have both succeeded without dominance of the business market.

If Android or Symbian can't provide an alternative to Microsoft then someone else will step in. We've already got a situation where manufacturers are inventing their own new smartphone platforms despite the wealth of alternatives available today.

And let's not forget that both Symbian and Android are open source. Even if Nokia and Google respectively decide to stop development, there's always the possibility that someone else will step in. There's no way that Microsoft will be on the only reasonable option.

I guess an issue here might be how one defines the market. I'm thinking of a true mobile platform with widespread third party application support. I don't think that manufacturer-specific operating systems (other than RIM and iPhone) are going to succeed in that market. But if you're talking about a broader market that includes cheaper devices that don't have or require third party application support, then I guess I agree with you.

The one wild card here that perhaps I've been ignoring is China. I could imagine somebody other than Apple, MS, or RIM doing well in the Chinese market, but I bet that somebody will be Chinese and will have very limited success outside of the Chinese market (since it's a huge market, they really don't need to).

Regarding business/corporate users -- I know they're a smaller percentage, but that's where MS has its comparative advantage, so I think that's the market where they will have the most success. I think Apple will dominate the consumer market.
post #64 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booga View Post

The article states that Palm announced that they'd announce $300-400M instead of $1.6B. That sounds like a huge shortfall... except that the $1.6B number was for the year and the $300M was for the quarter. In other words, the two numbers aren't comparable and they didn't revise one to the other.

Excellent catch. Thanks. Gosh, AI, as many of us repeatedly request, could you please be a bit more careful in the general way in which you report financial news?
post #65 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandau View Post

someone should ask this guy about the killer phone:

http://www.pcworld.com/businesscente...ne_killer.html

For those too lazy to hit the link: Ross Catanzariti, Good Gear Guide
post #66 of 72
i wish i could get excited about Apple the way you guys do.

Everyone wants Apple to be the only company around? What sense does that make?
post #67 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

i wish i could get excited about Apple the way you guys do.

Everyone wants Apple to be the only company around? What sense does that make?

No, but it would be nice for the competition to actually be competitive.
post #68 of 72
Apple is a tough competitor to take on, I mean Microsoft being as big as it is stumbles against the comeback kid in Cupertino. Blackberry is smart, they're choosing to go all out on their business solution instead of directly competing. The question is, who is next? I'm not convinced Android will ever take the crown. Apple will release some seriously aggressive updates to its platform that will be difficult to keep matching...
post #69 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilogic View Post

Apple is a tough competitor to take on, I mean Microsoft being as big as it is stumbles against the comeback kid in Cupertino. Blackberry is smart, they're choosing to go all out on their business solution instead of directly competing. The question is, who is next? I'm not convinced Android will ever take the crown. Apple will release some seriously aggressive updates to its platform that will be difficult to keep matching...

I think Android-based phones will beat out iPhone OS-based phones in per unit comparisons. There are just too many vendors using Android and planning to use Android. Despite it's problems, lack of consistency, and general user friendliness and UX issues it's not a bad OS for what it's doing. As even the cheap phones get more powerful we'll likely see an older version of Android running on them. We've even seen the 4 month old(?) Droid drop to $49 on Version and the Eris drop to FREE, both with contracts, just like we see with other cheap phones.

I think RiM is well managed and they've now tried to hit the consumer market with 2 devices. Both have been failures out of the gate. The resistance touchscreen needs to be dropped and without a good WebKit-based browser they are starting well behind iPhone OS, Android, and WebOS. I've read that the touchscreen tech will change with the 3rd iteration and they have a WebKit-based browser coming from a company they bought out last year.

Despite that, I think RiM has a growing revenue issue ahead of them. The thing that made them great last decade won't be a requirement this decade. I foresee a lot of companies finding BES/BIS and the yearly per unit usage fee to be a a costly expense with little reward. I expect they will drop their prices considerably to compensate, but as I stated they are well managed so I would never count RiM out of the game regardless of what happens in the next few years. So far, they've been increasing their profits and appear to be maintaining their corporate base.

At some point Apple will need to expand past AT&T, but the US network does offer some logistical issues that the other vendors don't have to deal with. Plus, it's just not very Apple-like to get crazy with multiple versions of the same product. They still like to pretend they are a boutique shop. For my stock's sake I hope they make a CDMA version, but I think that adding the radio for 1700MHz band for T-Mobile is likely the best we can expect. The results of AT&T network in the last few months are not the same as last summer, even prior to the iPhone launch. They may have finally gotten ahead of the congestion issues. If so, by how much and is it enough to deal with the imminent rush of new customers this Summer is another issue altogether.

I do like what MS is doing. They are finally following Apple's plan by focusing on core features and starting from the ground up. I think there some user experience issues with the Windows Phone 7 Series mockups we've seen but it's much better than anything else they've done so I'm impressed with it. Regardless of the version of IE they are using I do expect the HTML5 video element to be included in the browser. Taking all bets...
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post #70 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

Now they are just a cautionary tale.

This is classic.
post #71 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I think Android-based phones will beat out iPhone OS-based phones in per unit comparisons. There are just too many vendors using Android and planning to use Android. Despite it's problems, lack of consistency, and general user friendliness and UX issues it's not a bad OS for what it's doing. As even the cheap phones get more powerful we'll likely see an older version of Android running on them. We've even seen the 4 month old(?) Droid drop to $49 on Version and the Eris drop to FREE, both with contracts, just like we see with other cheap phones.

I think RiM is well managed and they've now tried to hit the consumer market with 2 devices. Both have been failures out of the gate. The resistance touchscreen needs to be dropped and without a good WebKit-based browser they are starting well behind iPhone OS, Android, and WebOS. I've read that the touchscreen tech will change with the 3rd iteration and they have a WebKit-based browser coming from a company they bought out last year.

Despite that, I think RiM has a growing revenue issue ahead of them. The thing that made them great last decade won't be a requirement this decade. I foresee a lot of companies finding BES/BIS and the yearly per unit usage fee to be a a costly expense with little reward. I expect they will drop their prices considerably to compensate, but as I stated they are well managed so I would never count RiM out of the game regardless of what happens in the next few years. So far, they've been increasing their profits and appear to be maintaining their corporate base.

At some point Apple will need to expand past AT&T, but the US network does offer some logistical issues that the other vendors don't have to deal with. Plus, it's just not very Apple-like to get crazy with multiple versions of the same product. They still like to pretend they are a boutique shop. For my stock's sake I hope they make a CDMA version, but I think that adding the radio for 1700MHz band for T-Mobile is likely the best we can expect. The results of AT&T network in the last few months are not the same as last summer, even prior to the iPhone launch. They may have finally gotten ahead of the congestion issues. If so, by how much and is it enough to deal with the imminent rush of new customers this Summer is another issue altogether.

I do like what MS is doing. They are finally following Apple's plan by focusing on core features and starting from the ground up. I think there some user experience issues with the Windows Phone 7 Series mockups we've seen but it's much better than anything else they've done so I'm impressed with it. Regardless of the version of IE they are using I do expect the HTML5 video element to be included in the browser. Taking all bets...

You're especially right about MS, they didn't create the game, and they're slowing down trying to convince everyone that they did, and they realize they have to play in other people's home field too.
post #72 of 72
What happened to the GSM Pre & GSM Pixie?
And where's the international release to other countries?

Previously, we had shipments of every Palm device onto our shores (South East Asia) & I'm located specifically in the Philippines.

We have a local Palm website here.. but sadly, no release date & no pricing whatsoever, it's mostly informational only. There's lots of 'rabid' Palm users here also, they're Mac users as well (that would buy the iPhone & the Pre just the same), so I'm just wondering myself why it hasn't reached our shores yet?!

Meanwhile, we have a thriving local Apple website that's fully working since last year.. and if you compare if with what Palm is offering, I/we'd like to buy the Palm Pre &/or Pixie but how are we going to buy 'em here & when, that's the question ever since it was released last year. \

Oh well.
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