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Apple iPad production hit by 'manufacturing bottleneck' - report - Page 2

post #41 of 87
3/1/10 at 9:35am
Quote:
Originally Posted by nkhm View Post

You mean, according to this rumour? Do you have knee jerk responses to every rumour?

I'm in the UK, I'm pretty convinced I'll have my 6 pads by the end of April, no worries at all.

What happened to taking rumours with a pinch of salt and not berating a company based on nothing. I can't think of an Apple product with a delay or a major flaw. Not one. btw - my 27" iMac is just fine, first generation here in the first week. And my snow leopard install on launch day went fine and continues to be more than fine.

I feel I must point out how much more fun knee-jerk over the top responses are.

I guess I'm being so emotional about it because I'm still mad at the absolute failure of the 3Gs launch in Canada, how I couldn't get one for over six months despite phoning my carrier almost daily, and especially because no one in the media even reported the story (seeing how the USA had stock and that's all anyone cares about it seems).

So yeah, take my prediction with a grain or two of salt cause I'm obviously basing it more on the past failure than the facts. The fact remains however that Apple is having a horrendous time keeping up with supply during their transition from tiny also-ran US computer company to world-dominating retail behemoth.

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banned: patpatpat, TEKSTUD, Rot'nApple, JerrySwitched26, iSheldon, DaHarder, Flaneur, Pendergast, thataveragejoe 

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post #42 of 87
3/1/10 at 9:40am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Icesnake View Post

What's the problem? Is there a shortage of child labor in the Apple factories? Or did the fact that the number of people who "definitely want" the iPad dropped after they found out what the product is make Jobs decide he needed to work harder on his Jedi mind control kills, and put production on the back burner?

Do. Not. Want. In fact, after the multiple iTunes debacles and the AT&T iPhone lock-in, I don't ever want ANY Apple product.

I'd go and check that if I were you. My recollection is that the (somewhat dubious) survey to which I assume you're referring, the number of 'definitely will buys' went up.
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post #43 of 87
3/1/10 at 9:46am
it's a rumor could be false. Like one of those cramer schemes he talked about like spreading rumors before product launch to affect stock price.
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post #44 of 87
3/1/10 at 9:50am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post

This is turning out to be just like the 3Gs launch.

It's almost guaranteed that no one outside of the USA will hold one of these things in their hands until Xmas 2010-11.

What happened to all those awards Apple won in recent years for managing their supply chain better than any other company? I know they are a much bigger company now, but they are screwing up big time over the last couple of years. They can't seem to produce a single product without delays and major flaws.

Cut the bullshit. Your continuing rhetoric is beginning to sound idiotic.

I'll bet your parents are still waiting for you to put the garbage out without being told.
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post #45 of 87
3/1/10 at 9:54am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Icesnake View Post

What's the problem? Is there a shortage of child labor in the Apple factories? Or did the fact that the number of people who "definitely want" the iPad dropped after they found out what the product is make Jobs decide he needed to work harder on his Jedi mind control kills, and put production on the back burner?

Do. Not. Want. In fact, after the multiple iTunes debacles and the AT&T iPhone lock-in, I don't ever want ANY Apple product.

So why are you here? To hear you sphincter chirp?
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post #46 of 87
3/1/10 at 10:18am
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamIIGS View Post

All of the trolls are correct, it's apple's "fault", better to be like say M$ and release a product with a 16% failure rate and just force customers to return for repair, damn the quality checks in place!

Why look at MSFT? Can you look at the recent flickering and jaundiced iMac screens?
eh, display issues for Mac have been an hotly concern since the first aluminium iMacs.
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post #47 of 87
3/1/10 at 10:26am
This is craziness.

We have over 40 responses to this item, many of them debating the reasons for the limited supply of the iPad upon launch... and the launch hasn't even happened yet.

What ever happened to gathering as much information as possible before forming a conclusion?

Thompson
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post #48 of 87
3/1/10 at 10:30am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damn_Its_Hot View Post

Different folks use different methods of grouping. I suppose you are one that hates it when someone uses the "," (comma) for the decimal delimiter also (as is done in a large part of the world outside the US)? If it is equivalent who cares - not everyone does it the way us "good old yanks" do it!

Because it reads as "one hundred thousand thousand" and the translation that is performed - however quickly - to "one million" is an unnecessary one. If it is intended to read "one million" then make it say "one million."
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post #49 of 87
3/1/10 at 11:09am
Quote:
Originally Posted by nkhm View Post

Did you have an issue with your 27" iMac - cause i haven't found anyone who has... There will always be a tiny percentage of electronic devices with faults, it's the nature of electronics and manual delivery of goods in the back of lorries...

It's well documented, and in an unusual change of ways, was confirmed by Apple in a public way. I did not have an issue because I didn't purchase one, I don't buy first runs of anything because of the manufacturing tweaks/bugs that need to be worked out.
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post #50 of 87
3/1/10 at 11:11am
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

T...... with a PEG of a mere 0.67 (based on consensus)!

Just letting the PEG trend toward unity .......

I have a couple of questions for you.

What is the meaning of the 'PEG' ratio (I know what the definition is; I am asking about its meaning and interpretation)? 'Consensus' of what? Earnings? P/E? PEG? If either of the latter, where you do you find that? What does a PEG ratio tell you that you could not glean from a P/E ratio? Finally, can you point to any credible empirical evidence that links PEGs to stock prices?
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post #51 of 87
3/1/10 at 11:29am
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post

This is craziness.

We have over 40 responses to this item, many of them debating the reasons for the limited supply of the iPad upon launch... and the launch hasn't even happened yet.

What ever happened to gathering as much information as possible before forming a conclusion?



Wait till the complaints about OS crashes start...... tomorrow. Then it's on to the fact that only 118,000 of the 140,000 apps have been updated for the iPad (that's coming day after tomorrow).
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post #52 of 87
3/1/10 at 11:45am
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I have a couple of questions for you.

What is the meaning of the 'PEG' ratio (I know what the definition is; I am asking about its meaning and interpretation)? 'Consensus' of what? Earnings? P/E? PEG? If either of the latter, where you do you find that? What does a PEG ratio tell you that you could not glean from a P/E ratio? Finally, can you point to any credible empirical evidence that links PEGs to stock prices?

All of these numbers are guidelines, a way of looking at relative valuations. None of them are linked to price empirically, since stock price itself is just a consensus of investor sentiments at any given time. A low PEG can be seen as sign of relative value, or it could be taken as a sign of bearish sentiments on the stock. It's up to the investor to make a guess which it is.
Please don't be insane.
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post #53 of 87
3/1/10 at 12:14pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

All of these numbers are guidelines, a way of looking at relative valuations. None of them are linked to price empirically, since stock price itself is just a consensus of investor sentiments at any given time. A low PEG can be seen as sign of relative value, or it could be taken as a sign of bearish sentiments on the stock. It's up to the investor to make a guess which it is.

I can point you to lots of literature on P/E ratios and stock prices. It is very well-studied.

More important, the P/E ratio has a very precise meaning and interpretation. (It can easily be shown that the Forward P/E ratio is specifically equal to 1/[rE - g], where rE is the expected return on equity and g is the expected long-run growth rate in earnings, which, in turn is a function of the reinvestment rate and ROE in the business).

The PEG, on the other hand, is a meaningless metric with no clear link to fundamentals such as cash flows (earnings), cost of capital (rE), growth (g), or ROIC (ROE). As far as I know, there is little or no academic research to back up the use of this metric for valuation purposes. (Do correct me if I am wrong). It is one of those metrics that a lot of people seem to throw around, but no one seems to explain, or more important, validate.
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post #54 of 87
3/1/10 at 12:45pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post



Wait till the complaints about OS crashes start...... tomorrow. Then it's on to the fact that only 118,000 of the 140,000 apps have been updated for the iPad (that's coming day after tomorrow).

Or the week after it really comes out and apple lowers the price Can't wait to hear the complaining then....
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post #55 of 87
3/1/10 at 12:46pm
Maybe any production delays would be related to the fact that lots of people celebrate Chinese New Year for about two weeks.
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post #56 of 87
3/1/10 at 12:53pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Icesnake View Post

What's the problem? Is there a shortage of child labor in the Apple factories? Or did the fact that the number of people who "definitely want" the iPad dropped after they found out what the product is make Jobs decide he needed to work harder on his Jedi mind control kills, and put production on the back burner?

Do. Not. Want. In fact, after the multiple iTunes debacles and the AT&T iPhone lock-in, I don't ever want ANY Apple product.

Well, thank god you came over here to tell us! We were all stupid enough to think that we might still want some Apple products, but now we can all stop wanting 'em and go back to Microsoft. Thanks!
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post #57 of 87
3/1/10 at 1:04pm
Foo bar! Someone failed at playing the stock market! The idea was that if you want a quick buck! Buy apple, now. The assumption was that the prospect of shortages would bring the stock down. When it becomes obvious that there will be no shortages, the stock would go up again. But looking at the stock prices the trick has so far failed...
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post #58 of 87
3/1/10 at 1:07pm
Quote:
Availability of Apple's forthcoming iPad may be limited when it launches later this month, due to an "unspecified production problem" that could restrict the number of shipped units to just 300,000.


What I suspect happened is the Chinese workers at the plants making the iPad realized it's close to 100% completely made by machines and that would put so many of them out of work, so they sabotaged the assembly process or iPads somehow.

It could be that or Apple is playing a marketing trick by "selling out" early to induce demand.
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post #59 of 87
3/1/10 at 1:20pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

Limit the initial supply. Increase demand.

Limit number of unhappy people when major problems pop up on a 1st generation product within the first week or two?
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post #60 of 87
3/1/10 at 2:02pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I can point you to lots of literature on P/E ratios and stock prices. It is very well-studied.

More important, the P/E ratio has a very precise meaning and interpretation. (It can easily be shown that the Forward P/E ratio is specifically equal to 1/[rE - g], where rE is the expected return on equity and g is the expected long-run growth rate in earnings, which, in turn is a function of the reinvestment rate and ROE in the business).

The PEG, on the other hand, is a meaningless metric with no clear link to fundamentals such as cash flows (earnings), cost of capital (rE), growth (g), or ROIC (ROE). As far as I know, there is little or no academic research to back up the use of this metric for valuation purposes. (Do correct me if I am wrong). It is one of those metrics that a lot of people seem to throw around, but no one seems to explain, or more important, validate.

I'm not sure what you are implying. None of these so-called metrics predict anything. They have precise meanings in terms of how they are calculated, but very imprecise interpretations.
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post #61 of 87
3/1/10 at 2:05pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Icesnake View Post

What's the problem? Is there a shortage of child labor in the Apple factories? Or did the fact that the number of people who "definitely want" the iPad dropped after they found out what the product is make Jobs decide he needed to work harder on his Jedi mind control kills, and put production on the back burner?

Do. Not. Want. In fact, after the multiple iTunes debacles and the AT&T iPhone lock-in, I don't ever want ANY Apple product.

Curious then, why are you here?

Also, these 'Apple factories' you speak of are also 'Cisco' factories, 'Motorola' factories, 'Walmart factories' .. etc. Think of a big brand that you've bought and it probably has some manufacturing in a company like Hon Hai, if not Hon Hai itself. Go ahead, be Mike Arrington and stop buying stuff made in China.
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post #62 of 87
3/1/10 at 2:54pm
This seems like a good thing for Apple. More free press for their new magical iPad. Yes, I'll be getting a 3g version
[center] "Hey look, it's in the center. I am SO cool!"[/center]
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[center] "Hey look, it's in the center. I am SO cool!"[/center]
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post #63 of 87
3/1/10 at 2:58pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I'm not sure what you are implying. None of these so-called metrics predict anything. They have precise meanings in terms of how they are calculated, but very imprecise interpretations.

Who said anything about predicting (notwithstanding the fact that you guys were trying to earlier, making all the sweeping assertions about PEG tending to one and all that)? That's a fool's errand anyway.

I am talking about the meaning and the interpretation of a construct or a financial metric. I told you precisely what a P/E ratio means. I can precisely interpret a P/E ratio for you if you gave me the fundamentals - cash flows, growth, cost of capital, as I had previously mentioned - that drive value.

The point is, the PEG ratio does not lend itself to any such interpretation. And you seemed to have missed the point that there is no literature - other than casual press anecdote - to back up the use of that metric; I can create all sorts of metrics with price in the numerator, but that means nothing. Perhaps there is a reason that such literature does not exist.

Incidentally, back to my earlier question, what is the 'consensus' that you two were bantering about earlier?
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post #64 of 87
3/1/10 at 3:05pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damn_Its_Hot View Post

Different folks use different methods of grouping. I suppose you are one that hates it when someone uses the "," (comma) for the decimal delimiter also (as is done in a large part of the world outside the US)? If it is equivalent who cares - not everyone does it the way us "good old yanks" do it!


First off, I am from the U.S. and could care less if someone says math or maths or uses a comma instead of a decimal point. The point the guy was making is that 1000x1000=1,000,000...one million, so why not just say one million. (This works I guess unless we use Japanese notation - 100 "ten thousands" - but that is unlikely unless you are Japanese or a Japanophile, like me)
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post #65 of 87
3/1/10 at 3:16pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Who said anything about predicting (notwithstanding the fact that you guys were trying to earlier, making all the sweeping assertions about PEG tending to one and all that)? That's a fool's errand anyway.

You must have missed the part where I made no assertions at all about what PEG is good for, let alone, any sweeping assertions. It's just another number, like all of the others, the meaning of which you must interpret in order to glean any value. If you think it has none, then by all means, ignore it.

You certainly like to use the word metric, but that's just one of those buzzwords that gets tossed around to make a statistic sound important and serious. This discussion is starting to sound like one of those debates some baseball fans love to have over which stats are the really meaningful ones.

I used the word consensus to describe how stock prices are set by the market at any given moment in time. Today the market consensus is that AAPL is worth $208 a share. Little doubt, a different consensus will emerge tomorrow. This is a controversial statement?
Please don't be insane.
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post #66 of 87
3/1/10 at 3:50pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I have a couple of questions for you.

What is the meaning of the 'PEG' ratio (I know what the definition is; I am asking about its meaning and interpretation)? 'Consensus' of what? Earnings? P/E? PEG? If either of the latter, where you do you find that? What does a PEG ratio tell you that you could not glean from a P/E ratio? Finally, can you point to any credible empirical evidence that links PEGs to stock prices?

Conventional wisdom is that a PEG of 1.0 is a "fair valuation" for a growth company. Consensus earnings estimates used for growth, but you can just as easily use historic growth rates.

I personally like the PEG because it takes some of the emotion and volatility out of where people think P/E ratios "should" be, and it makes it easier to play with the impact of different growth rates. It does more to say which stocks are cheap vs expensive. To me, it says that Apple is still a great company to be invested in, but Google and Amazon might not be.
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post #67 of 87
3/1/10 at 4:47pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by hillstones View Post

That is one way to create a fake demand.

Indeed. I better get my pre-order in ASAP!

Seriously though, when can I pre-order one
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post #68 of 87
3/1/10 at 5:14pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

You must have missed the part where I made no assertions at all about what PEG is good for, let alone, any sweeping assertions. It's just another number, like all of the others, the meaning of which you must interpret in order to glean any value. If you think it has none, then by all means, ignore it.

PEG or whatever, you've been lately predicting Apple stock prices in a couple of different posts. That's perfectly fine, but you should be able to explain/interpret the metrics you're using, if you do bring them up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

You certainly like to use the word metric, but that's just one of those buzzwords that gets tossed around to make a statistic sound important and serious. This discussion is starting to sound like one of those debates some baseball fans love to have over which stats are the really meaningful ones.

Whether it's a 'buzzword' or not is simply a point of view. I simply meant it i the sense of a 'measure.' You can call it whatever you like. That does not change the substance of my questions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I used the word consensus to describe how stock prices are set by the market at any given moment in time. Today the market consensus is that AAPL is worth $208 a share. Little doubt, a different consensus will emerge tomorrow. This is a controversial statement?

No controversy there at all.
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post #69 of 87
3/1/10 at 5:24pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Conventional wisdom is that a PEG of 1.0 is a "fair valuation" for a growth company. Consensus earnings estimates used for growth, but you can just as easily use historic growth rates.

I personally like the PEG because it takes some of the emotion and volatility out of where people think P/E ratios "should" be, and it makes it easier to play with the impact of different growth rates. It does more to say which stocks are cheap vs expensive. To me, it says that Apple is still a great company to be invested in, but Google and Amazon might not be.

'Conventional' or 'fair valuation' according to whom? Why might 'P/E' be caught up with emotion while 'PEG' is not? The P/E already includes the 'expected growth rate', as I mentioned in an earlier post (Finance 101 says that Fwd P/E = 1/[rE-g], where g is the expected growth rate). You can play around with different growth rates or use consensus estimates or historical growth rates or pick a number or whatever (although, ideally, you should anchor 'g' to something line [Reinvestment Rate]*[ROIC]).

You may personally like it, and that's OK. Go ahead and use it by al means. But it's important to note that: (i) the PEG ratio has no real meaning unlike a P/E ratio; (ii) There isn't an iota of empirical evidence to support the claim that PEG greater than or less than one amounts to a hill of beans from an equity valuation standpoint.
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post #70 of 87
3/1/10 at 6:01pm
[QUOTE=Gazoobee;1581456]This is turning out to be just like the 3Gs launch.
editss bad joke
whats in a name ? 
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whats in a name ? 
beatles
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post #71 of 87
3/1/10 at 7:01pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

PEG or whatever, you've been lately predicting Apple stock prices in a couple of different posts. That's perfectly fine, but you should be able to explain/interpret the metrics you're using, if you do bring them up.

I have NEVER predicted Apple's share price. Never. I have absolutely no idea what it's going to do and have never, ever suggested that I do. In fact just the opposite.
Please don't be insane.
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post #72 of 87
3/1/10 at 11:49pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smiles77 View Post

If there are only ~300,000 units, there are going to be a lot of unhappy people. I predict that there will be enough demand for around 1 million sold in the first week. Not good for product constrictions.

For the love of.. I'm not feeling up to looking for it but this is the same crap that was floating around at the iPhone lauch and they were wrong then, and I have no doubt they will be wrong now. Apple isn't going to screw up over a simple supply problem.

Are we sure this guy isn't shorting Apple?
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post #73 of 87
3/1/10 at 11:52pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Whatever the issue, this is not likely to get better. I think we'll have to see other areas of Apple's product line expand to deal with this growth

The same people criticizing Apple for production problems also want the iPhone on Verizon.

Am I the only one that sees the disconnect here?
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post #74 of 87
3/1/10 at 11:59pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisf2573 View Post

It has been reported by many resources that customers are not very happy with the initial price of $499.

On what planet? All the pundits I saw were yapping about how it would be a flop as it would be $700-$1000 and the only way they could get the price down would be to tie it with a contract with AT&T and subsidize it.

And we saw how accurate those reports were

All I heard for the few days after - in the tech press, no less! - was how surprised everyone was at the $499 price and how it was going to put pressure on everyone else.

Your analysis is all wet...
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post #75 of 87
3/2/10 at 12:00am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Icesnake View Post

Do. Not. Want. In fact, after the multiple iTunes debacles and the AT&T iPhone lock-in, I don't ever want ANY Apple product.

So why are you here? Was that cathartic? Do you feel better? Want a cookie?
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post #76 of 87
3/2/10 at 12:03am
Quote:
Originally Posted by pixelcruncher View Post

Absolutely. Does anyone doubt that any new product from Apple or Nintendo won't have a restricted supply when they're released?

Heaven forbid the companies produce wildly popular and sought after products that have an inherit demand. Oh no, they are only successful by artificially restricting demand.

Yup, that worked oh so well for the Pre

Please, if 5 million people want an iPad on day 1, and Apple reasonably believes 5 million people want one, they are going to do their damnedest to have 5 million available.

Quote:
Here come the reports of outrageous prices on e-bay.

Yup, that's those profit taking bastards at Apple manipulating the market to get those above retail prices on Ebay...

Oh, wait...
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post #77 of 87
3/2/10 at 12:06am
Quote:
Originally Posted by steviet02 View Post

Yeah, like the new 27" iMac...

Yeah, the 27" iMac that's number 9 and 10 on the Amazon top 10 list (trending up, BTW). Yup, the computer with those miserable four out of five stars in the reviews.

You are absolutely right, it's a complete disaster!
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post #78 of 87
3/2/10 at 12:11am
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Apple is f'ing brilliant. Now they'll have lines of people showing up, "just to see if they can get one"

Yup, Apple will "have" lines of people. They will force them to come just because.

Not because it's an interesting, compelling or desirable product - but because it's the "Apple Trendy" thing to do.

Oh well, you did get one thing right - Apple is f'ing brilliant - they design products for customers instead of against feature lists! What a concept! Amazingly, focusing on the end user experience instead of technology for the sake of technology begets compelling and highly desirable products.

Who would have thunk it?
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post #79 of 87
3/2/10 at 12:16am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ricardo Dawkins View Post

eh, display issues for Mac have been an hotly concern since the first aluminium iMacs.

Only for those looking for something to criticize Apple over.

Internet echo chamber any one? If the display issues were anywhere near as significant as you are implying- if they were even HALF as common as the Xbox 360 RRD, the anti-apple sites would be all over it. You need a new shtick, this one is so retreaded it's barely visible.
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post #80 of 87
3/2/10 at 3:07am
Quote:
Originally Posted by antkm1 View Post

I am a huge follower of the iPad, untill i saw the launch. Now i'm waiting to see what the competition brings (i.e. Google Chrome OS Netbook). Screw MS/HP products. If the "Chrome-Book" fails expectations, then it's iPad 2.0 for me. Just not compelling enought to wait in lines. They need to put some kind of wireless home/office networking into the OS. Just put the "Finder" in it already!

I'm pretty sure they wouldn't put in 3G, wi-fi and bluetooth unless this thing had networking capabilities... Why does this device need the 'finder' any more than the iPod touch?
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