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Apple's iPad expected to be part of 10.5M tablets shipped in 2010

post #1 of 33
Thread Starter 
The buzz kickstarted by Apple with its long-awaited iPad is expected to produce a total of 10.5 million shipped tablet devices in 2010, representing a new and significant change for the PC market.

Gartner revealed Thursday its formal predictions for 2010, with the analysis firm expecting PC shipments to grow 20 percent by the end of the calendar year. A significant part of that growth will come from tablet PCs and next-generation tablet devices like the Apple iPad.

"User requirements are clearly segmenting, and the mini-notebook proved this point," said Ranjit Atwal, principal analyst at Gartner. "Vendors can no longer afford to just think in terms of traditional PC form factors or architectures. With the rise of Web-delivered applications, many users no longer need a traditional PC running a resident general-purpose operating system and fast x86 CPU to satisfy their computing needs."

He continued: "Apple's iPad is just one of many new devices coming to market that will change the entire PC ecosystem and overlap it with the mobile phone industry. This will create significantly more opportunities for PC vendors as well as significantly more threats."

On Wall Street, analyst opinions on initial iPad demand are varied, with predictions ranging from 1 million to 5 million in first-year sales. A recent report alleged that Apple will ship between 600,000 and 700,000 units at launch later this month. Suppliers said that Apple could deliver another million iPads in April.

The report follows a rumor from this week that the iPad is on track for an alleged sale date of March 26. The 3G-enabled versions of the iPad, which sell for an additional $130, will arrive a month later.

That same report suggested Apple store employees could begin receiving training on the new hardware starting March 10. It also stated that Apple intends to begin airing iPad commercials, which will emphasize the device's e-book capabilities, on TV starting March 15.

Gartner's forecast of 20 percent growth in 2010 is up from its prediction of 13.3 percent in December. The company expects home PC demand to accelerate and professional replacement system purchases to arise in the next few years.

"The PC industry will be overwhelmingly driven by mobile PCs, thanks to strong home growth in both emerging and mature markets," said George Shiffler, research director at Gartner. "Mini-notebooks are again forecast to boost mobile PC growth in 2010, but their contribution is expected to decline noticeably afterward, as they face growing competition from new ultra-low-voltage (ULV) ultraportables and next-generation tablets. Desk-based PC shipment growth will be minimal and limited to emerging markets."

And as devices such as laptops -- and now tablets -- become even more mobile and powerful, Gartner expects portable devices to drive 90 percent of PC growth over the next three years. In 2009, mobile PCs accounted for 55 percent of PC shipments, but by 2012, that number is expected to grow to nearly 70 percent.
post #2 of 33
Apple iPad 10 million shipped vs others 0.5 million
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post #3 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Apple iPad 10 million shipped vs others 0.5 million

And I wouldn't bet against you
From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
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From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
"Google doesn't sell you anything, they just sell you!"
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post #4 of 33
So, is the iPad going to be "part of 10.5M tablets shipped in 2010" or "expected to produce a total of 10.5 million shipped tablet devices in 2010"? In other words, is the projected total for the industry 10.5M units?

Even 5 million units for a tablet would be extraordinary. What are the sales of tablets for the past decade?
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #5 of 33
Some call them tablates...Others call them slates. This is really a whole new platform or category
of computer which I like to refer to as tabslates. A tabslate is larger than a smart phone but smaller than a laptop. Over the next few years Apple will probably ship 10.5M of these devises
by themselves. The IPAD will be considered the "Mother Of All Tabslates".This is really the beginning of where "Home Computers" were supposed to be when the two Steve's worked together
Steve J. and Steve W.in the early garage days to bring this concept to the publiuc. At least this is how I see it.
post #6 of 33
Sounds like a lot to sell.
I wait for the iPad 3G-S with camera.
post #7 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

So, is the iPad going to be "part of 10.5M tablets shipped in 2010" or "expected to produce a total of 10.5 million shipped tablet devices in 2010"? In other words, is the projected total for the industry 10.5M units?

Even 5 million units for a tablet would be extraordinary. What are the sales of tablets for the past decade?

I don't think you can predict iPad sales based upon past tablet sales-- the devices are too different in usability, practicality and cost.

Possibly, better predictions could be made by examining sales of laptops, netbooks, eBook readers, iPods and portable game players.

The iPad can satisfy some needs better than any of these devices.

Then, there is the app store and the potential for new mobile content consumption such as newspapers, magazines, TV, movies...


According to one site, netbooks alone accounted for 33.3 million devices in 2009.

http://www.internetnews.com/stats/article.php/3855261


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"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
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post #8 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Apple iPad 10 million shipped vs others 0.5 million

Sounds about right . . .
post #9 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

According to one site, notebooks alone accounted for 33.3 million devices in 2009.

http://www.internetnews.com/stats/article.php/3855261

I think you mean NETbooks.
post #10 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by yesiCan View Post

Sounds like a lot to sell.
I wait for the iPad 3G-S with camera.

And Flash. And USB so you can get an air card and a data plan from a provider that has good coverage where you live and work.

I'm hitting the Kool Aid hard on this one and I'm not feeling it. I'll put up with some crippling in a device if it's ultra portable, but if I'm going to carry one of these around in a Man-Purse, I should be able to surf the whole internet IMHO.

As far as a book reader is concerned, does anyone know if Apple will secure deals with all publishers? Or is this going to be a case where I need a Kindle and a Sony Reader and the iPad because different companies have a different piece of the ebook pie?
post #11 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot View Post

I think you mean NETbooks.

Good catch... corrected!
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post #12 of 33
I think the analysts are way off (using the wrong variable to predict). I would bet a minimum of 5 million sold this year.
post #13 of 33
Watch the Penguin video. If tuxedoed birds can use this thing, how much more will it be for us?


This device should be a requirement from preschool to medical school!!!

The dual battery ophthalmoscope-that beautiful device that changed the world for physicians since the 20's-was just a start.
The iPad will allow people to augment every aspect of their lives. From toddler to centurgenarian.

Every school should buy boxes of these things! Forget the Banksters-give the money to the future producers of wealth and knowledge!

How many billion students are there in the world?

Comic relief:
(if we were truly mean, we'd restrict export to competitive countries like India and China.
Well I guess The Quants could use it to generate more huge profits for the Three Fedeteers too. You know-Benny da Bankster's boys: Larry da SUMmer, Bobby da Rube and Tiny Tim Geithner)
post #14 of 33
This will be my one and only prediction for iPad sales figures.

2010 sales

Apple iPad 6.4 million.

All other Tablet Form Factor: 3 million
post #15 of 33
lol ten and a half million iPads shipped in 2010? Wow....talk about building up unrealistic expectations only to be met by certain failure. There is simply no way Apple sells 10 million of these from March to December. They'll be lucky selling a quarter of that.
post #16 of 33
Wronggggg!
When you're wrong you're wrong.
And you are wrong.
April to December iPad sales: 11,592,764.
I'm buying 5, 2 of which are for me.
AAPL $300+.
post #17 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

This will be my one and only prediction for iPad sales figures.

2010 sales

Apple iPad 6.4 million.

All other Tablet Form Factor: 3 million

I've been saying six million in 2010 since the announcement. And that's just the beginning
post #18 of 33
[QUOTE=Jerseymac;1583930]And Flash. And USB so you can get an air card and a data plan from a provider that has good coverage where you live and work.


My reading of the Apple info on the iPad is that as configured the iPad will accept a USB device or actually a USB cable.

From Apple's website:

"Connectivity
The 30-pin connector on the bottom of the iPad allows you to dock and charge it. It also lets you connect to iPad accessories like the Camera Connection Kit and the Keyboard Dock."

AND

"iPad Camera Connection Kit
The Camera Connection Kit gives you two ways to import photos and videos from a digital camera. The Camera Connector lets you import your photos and videos to iPad using the camera’s USB cable. Or you can use the SD Card Reader to import photos and videos directly from the camera’s SD card."

So if you can connect a camera's USB cable why can't you connect other USB devices? Certainly you need software drivers to do this but it would seem that some 3rd party may be able to make a USB hub that would connect to the iPad through its 30-pin connector just like the Camera Connection Kit.

Sure this is a guess but I think it is a reasonable one.
post #19 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerseymac View Post

As far as a book reader is concerned, does anyone know if Apple will secure deals with all publishers? Or is this going to be a case where I need a Kindle and a Sony Reader and the iPad because different companies have a different piece of the ebook pie?

Well we already know you can play Amazon purchases on an iPhone right now with the Kindle app but that could change if Apple keeps dicking with Amazon's pricing. So if things stay as is, Amazon purchases should play.They real question remains whether Apple purchases play on other manufacturer's devices.
post #20 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by LouisTheXIV View Post

lol ten and a half million iPads shipped in 2010? Wow....talk about building up unrealistic expectations only to be met by certain failure. There is simply no way Apple sells 10 million of these from March to December. They'll be lucky selling a quarter of that.

Wait until September when the 16Gb should be repriced correctly at $299-$329.
Then 10mil makes total sense. Don't say I didn't warn you.
post #21 of 33
Isn't the title of this article a little... stupid-obvious?

If Apple sells one iPad, it's part of the 10.5M expected units shipped...

I hate to be "that guy," but this is just another example in a long string of instances where AI titled their articles like a freshman journalism student.

-Clive
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post #22 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

This will be my one and only prediction for iPad sales figures.

2010 sales

Apple iPad 6.4 million.

All other Tablet Form Factor: 3 million

other tablets might sell less...with windows and flash eating up their batteries, users will choose to go back to their miserable windows 7 pcs...or get an ipad
post #23 of 33
No one else has noticed the discrepancy between the title and first paragraph?
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #24 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by yesiCan View Post

Wait until September when the 16Gb should be repriced correctly at $299-$329.
Then 10mil makes total sense. Don't say I didn't warn you.

I think based on history they are more likely to add features at the same low-end price point. I could see the base model being 32GB WiFi at $500, 32GB 3G at $600, and 64GB 3G at $750. Big question is if they do it for Back-to-school or Christmas season (June vs Sept/October)

I think to get down to $300 will be a challenge, and might better be served by iPod Touch/iPhone.
post #25 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot View Post

I think you mean NETbooks.

Netbooks, IMHO, are toast.
post #26 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

I think based on history they are more likely to add features at the same low-end price point. I could see the base model being 32GB WiFi at $500, 32GB 3G at $600, and 64GB 3G at $750. Big question is if they do it for Back-to-school or Christmas season (June vs Sept/October)

I think to get down to $300 will be a challenge, and might better be served by iPod Touch/iPhone.

Well we have a $99 8Gb iPhone now. I wouldn't doubt the 16Gb drop to $300 as these are in production and will need to clear out. Remember the first iPhone dropped in 2 months $200 after originally selling for $600 for 16Gb.
post #27 of 33
10.5 million tablets is an awful lot of units for a form factor that was claimed nobody wanted. Estimates are certainly all over the place and no estimates should be taken seriously before the iPad starts to ship. I hope Apple releases some of its pre-order numbers even though it won't be indicative on how well iPad future sales would be. We all going to just have to wait out the months after the iPad ships and see how well the consumer response is. Hopefully it will be good. If Apple can sell a million within the first two months, I would think the iPad will be considered a success.
post #28 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by yesiCan View Post

Well we have a $99 8Gb iPhone now. I wouldn't doubt the 16Gb drop to $300 as these are in production and will need to clear out. Remember the first iPhone dropped in 2 months $200 after originally selling for $600 for 16Gb.

True, the iPhone 3G is $99 for the consumer. However, carriers pay Apple the full price of the device ($499 for the 3G I believe). Unless we see a carrier subsidy for the iPad, I don't think we will see that large of a discount. Apple might drop the price but not as low as $300. Remember that Apple sells the 32GB iPod Touch for $300 and Amazon Kindle DX is selling for $490.

I think the most likely scenario is Apple dropping the 16GB model and offering the 32GB and 64GB models for $499 and $599, respectively, by the holiday season.
post #29 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

No one else has noticed the discrepancy between the title and first paragraph?

To be honest, Soli, I didn't get past the title...

But yes, now there are two freshman-journalism-student-esque flaws, one paragraph in.

Should I even read the rest of the article? It's probably about Pumas or something else completely unrelated and irrelevant...

-Clive
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post #30 of 33
I was listening to CNBC this morning and an amazing thing happened. Jim Kramer who has his ear out to many corporations and CEOs said that the enterprise market really is starting to embrace the iPad. This is even before any have been sold. They see it's versatility. He also believes that this could be more a road into that market for Apple.

So IMO since the iPhone is being more embraced by corporations and now the iPad with it's potential, the enterprise side of the equation is expanding to a greater extent for Apple. The momentum seems to be building. That stock ticker for AAPL is expressing or reflecting that. For those who in the beginning who put the iPad down and didn't see any potential in sales, they just don't have any vision. Steve Jobs has had a pretty good track record on creating items that the market embraces. Ok, his stereo for the iPod didn't work out but hey nobody's perfect. I may get an iPad at some point but now I am patiently waiting for the next gen of the iTouch with the built in camera. August seems so far away.
post #31 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by doyourownthing View Post

other tablets might sell less...with windows and flash eating up their batteries, users will choose to go back to their miserable windows 7 pcs...or get an ipad

On their own merit they wouldn't even come close to 3 million, in the wake of the iPad however, Dell, HP and others will benefit from the, "I'll settle for this" sales.
post #32 of 33
OK, condemn this idea.

the reason the Ipad is such a big deal is not in this version.
This version is a stalking horse.
The ultimate idea is to make a universal dynabook that will allow you to replace your phone with a device that not only does all the things it is now promoted with, but will allow you to video phone anyone you know. it is a replacement for the 1964 video phone we were promised at the worlds fair in NY. it will be the device that will allow perfect interconnection between any person or piece of knowledge on earth, with video ichat, sitting in your chair like SJ did awkwardly on stage.
Bottomline, this device, or its slightly larger siblings, will be the interconnection device of the next 20, maybe 50, years.
Those apps will only be the gravy.
post #33 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by 801 View Post

OK, condemn this idea.

the reason the Ipad is such a big deal is not in this version.
This version is a stalking horse.
The ultimate idea is to make a universal dynabook that will allow you to replace your phone with a device that not only does all the things it is now promoted with, but will allow you to video phone anyone you know. it is a replacement for the 1964 video phone we were promised at the worlds fair in NY. it will be the device that will allow perfect interconnection between any person or piece of knowledge on earth, with video ichat, sitting in your chair like SJ did awkwardly on stage.
Bottomline, this device, or its slightly larger siblings, will be the interconnection device of the next 20, maybe 50, years.
Those apps will only be the gravy.

Oh, yeah!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynabook

*
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