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Blockbuster 2010 Mac sales expected to carry into February for Apple

post #1 of 91
Thread Starter 
A slow start to Mac sales in early 2009 will work to Apple's advantage, potentially making strong 2010 sales seem even more impressive with numbers reflecting huge year-over-year growth, according to a new analysis.

In his latest note to investors, analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said that Mac sales in February of 2009 were down 16 percent year over year. This represents the softest Mac comparison Munster has seen since Piper Jaffray began tracking the data five years ago.

"We expect the strong (year-over-year) growth in NPD data that we saw in (January) to continue in the month of (February)," he wrote. "We believe this presents a buying opportunity ahead of NPD data for the month of Feb. on 3/15."

Mac sales in January of 2009 were down 6 percent from a year prior. That soft comparison helped 2010 sales grow 36 percent year over year, and implied a range of 2.6 million to 2.8 million Mac sales in the first quarter of calendar 2010. Wall Street, Munster said, expects Apple to ship about 2.6 million.

But with an even easier comparison in February, Munster said Apple is poised to exceed expectations yet again.

If Apple sells 2.8 million Macs in the first quarter of 2010, it would represent a 26 percent increase over the start of 2009. In all, the first half of 2009 was down 1 percent year-over-year.



While Mac sales struggled in the first half of 2009, Apple saw tremendous growth in the second half of the year, with an average of 18 percent growth. In the holiday quarter alone, Apple sold a record 3.36 million Macs, helping its profits grow more than 50 percent to $3.38 billion.

Munster is particularly bullish on Apple stock and Mac sales for 2010. In January, he called it the "Year of the Mac," even with what proved to be a low forecast of 3.1 million Macs for the December quarter. Piper Jaffray has maintained its "overweight" rating for AAPL stock with a price target of $284.
post #2 of 91
Its too bad that good sales are not good enough by themselves - they have to make it "look better". I don't get the analysts.
post #3 of 91
Even more amazing considering most of Apple's current mac products use old out of date technology and are in dire need of updates....
Im looking at you Macbooks/Macbook Pros/Airs/Minis/Mac Pro's !

Whilst the user experience may well be 1st class, there is nothing worse that flogging off year old tech at launch prices.
post #4 of 91
No surprises here . . .
post #5 of 91
When it comes to Apple, 'down' is good. So is 'up.'

Go figure.
post #6 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Munster is particularly bullish on Apple stock and Mac sales for 2010.

This reminds me, trend researcher Gerald Celente, who is often right, predicted this year will see a spike in the popularity of luxury goods, which is what most consumers view Macs as being. Interestingly he also predicts that America is going to experience a much worse economic calamity any time now:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22TVzJ_KsqU
post #7 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moloch View Post

This reminds me, trend researcher Gerald Celente, who is often right, .....

Really?! Can you cite some examples? What about predictions of his that didn't pan out? How many has he got right versus wrong, say over the past two years? Five years? (Links would help).

What is 'trend research'?
post #8 of 91
Just waiting on Apple to Update the Macbook Pro.

2010 MacBook Pro 13, 2.66
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2010 MacBook Pro 13, 2.66
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iPhone 4 on StraightTalk

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post #9 of 91
Has there ever been a company with Apple's high market cap that also had Apple's high growth rate combined with their astounding profit margins/cash on hand?

It's hard to figure what AAPL will do because it seems to be in a unique position...
Part of me says "they can't keep growing like this with the same profit margins" but then I look at the room for growth in their markets... Crazy!
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post #10 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by lewchenko View Post

Even more amazing considering most of Apple's current mac products use old out of date technology and are in dire need of updates....
Im looking at you Macbooks/Macbook Pros/Airs/Minis/Mac Pro's !

Whilst the user experience may well be 1st class, there is nothing worse that flogging off year old tech at launch prices.

What Dell and HP has a NVidia 9400 Graphics chip? Really? No...
Apple still uses serial port drivers? Wait... No.
Dell has illuminated key boards? What! No.
Dell and HP have full sized touch sensitive mouse pads with finger commands? Wait... No
Dell and HP both use LCD HD Displays? Nope
Both Dell and HP use high resolution mega pixal graphics support? No
Dell and HP have the #1 Operating System? Hell No

Need I go on?

Oh wait Dell comes in colors... WOW! That makes me want one! Oh wait the graphics card is part of the mother board and if the card goes up the hole mother board goes up too. Sounds Expensive! Oh yea I for got all the virus protective software and the monthly virus protection plan.


Idiot
post #11 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by RussellSakay View Post

What Dell and HP has a NVidia 9400 Graphics chip? Really? No...
Apple still uses serial port drivers? Wait... No.
Dell has illuminated key boards? What! No.
Dell and HP have full sized touch sensitive mouse pads with finger commands? Wait... No
Dell and HP both use LCD HD Displays? Nope
Both Dell and HP use high resolution mega pixal graphics support? No
Dell and HP have the #1 Operating System? Hell No

Need I go on?

Oh wait Dell comes in colors... WOW! That makes me want one! Oh wait the graphics card is part of the mother board and if the card goes up the hole mother board goes up too. Sounds Expensive! Oh yea I for got all the virus protective software and the monthly virus protection plan.


Idiot

Dell and HP have the thinest notebook in the world too... Not
And I am forgetting they have Solid State Drivers, ah... Nope
post #12 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by lewchenko View Post

Even more amazing considering most of Apple's current mac products use old out of date technology and are in dire need of updates....
Im looking at you Macbooks/Macbook Pros/Airs/Minis/Mac Pro's !

Whilst the user experience may well be 1st class, there is nothing worse that flogging off year old tech at launch prices.

Well, the MacPro's were updated not so long ago.

The mini's were also refreshed - and a new server version offered.

iMacs were upgraded... I'd love one of those 27" iCore 7s.

And the MBP are less than 9 months from last refresh.

All in all - they are not so out of date.

The days of chasing a few more Mhz are gone. It used to be that CPU's were the limiting performance factor in a PC and that each and every week a better system became available.

In the last 5 years, I've found that systems lasted longer; ie. met my needs longer than before.
That is if the hardware could not fail like my Thinkpad and my Dell towers did.

My Macs keep on computing even 3 1/2 years later.
post #13 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by RussellSakay View Post

Dell and HP have the thinest notebook in the world too... Not
And I am forgetting they have Solid State Drivers, ah... Nope

Dell and HP have All - In - One Display/ Desk Top Computers? Nope (Well maybe they do in a 13' size)
Both Dell and HP have the smallest Desktop Computer? ie Mac Mini... Nope
post #14 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leithal View Post

Well, the MacPro's were updated not so long ago.

The mini's were also refreshed - and a new server version offered.

iMacs were upgraded... I'd love one of those 27" iCore 7s.

And the MBP are less than 9 months from last refresh.

All in all - they are not so out of date.

The days of chasing a few more Mhz are gone. It used to be that CPU's were the limiting performance factor in a PC and that each and every week a better system became available.

In the last 5 years, I've found that systems lasted longer; ie. met my needs longer than before.
That is if the hardware could not fail like my Thinkpad and my Dell towers did.

My Macs keep on computing even 3 1/2 years later.

I have 5 Macs and y oldest is a iMac Ruby and it is being used by my kid even after 5 years.
post #15 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

Has there ever been a company with Apple's high market cap that also had Apple's high growth rate combined with their astounding profit margins/cash on hand?

It's hard to figure what AAPL will do because it seems to be in a unique position...
Part of me says "they can't keep growing like this with the same profit margins" but then I look at the room for growth in their markets... Crazy!

I think you raise good questions. I sure don't know what their future growth will look like, but as a stockholder I hope for the best. That said, Apple's market cap is so large that I believe their P/E ratio won't go back up to the 30s and 40s again, and that's okay by me. I like it when the E pushes the P up, rather than having huge expectations pull the P up. In my opinion, the lower P/E makes APPL a safer investment, but their healthy growth and business model still delivers healthy returns.
post #16 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by RussellSakay View Post

What Dell and HP has a NVidia 9400 Graphics chip? Really? No...
Apple still uses serial port drivers? Wait... No.
Dell has illuminated key boards? What! No.
Dell and HP have full sized touch sensitive mouse pads with finger commands? Wait... No
Dell and HP both use LCD HD Displays? Nope
Both Dell and HP use high resolution mega pixal graphics support? No
Dell and HP have the #1 Operating System? Hell No

Need I go on?

Oh wait Dell comes in colors... WOW! That makes me want one! Oh wait the graphics card is part of the mother board and if the card goes up the hole mother board goes up too. Sounds Expensive! Oh yea I for got all the virus protective software and the monthly virus protection plan.


Idiot


My Dell has an illuminated keyboard. It also has a 1080p screen and a quad-core i7 processor and both HDMI and eSATA outputs. And a Blu-Ray player.

Apple is well behind the curve, and offers none of these except the little LED beneath the keyboard. How innovative...
post #17 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by RussellSakay View Post

Dell and HP have the thinest notebook in the world too... Not
And I am forgetting they have Solid State Drivers, ah... Nope

SSDs are available on (all?) Dell notebooks.
post #18 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leithal View Post

And the MBP are less than 9 months from last refresh.

All in all - they are not so out of date.

Except that they don't offer quad-core chips or full HD screens or HDMI outputs or wireless n or...

But aside from that, they are SOTA...
post #19 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by iGenius View Post

Except that they don't offer quad-core chips or full HD screens or HDMI outputs or wireless n or...

But aside from that, they are SOTA...

I believe that they've supported wireless N for a while now...

And HDMI is overrated.
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post #20 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by RussellSakay View Post

Dell and HP have All - Nope etc blah blah blah


You are in denial about your points, and seriously need to get out more to see what the competition is doing..


I guess the one thing that most PC manufacturers have is the newest i3/i5/i7 processors combined with better GPU's. Quite important if you are thinking of buying a laptop now to last you 3 yrs.

Also I notice you didnt compare with the Sony S Vaio range... Of course not, thats because it kicks the Macbook pro's ass for less money.

Take the S model S11V9E ... for £1128.00 (a price no macbook pro can get close to for these specs) - available to buy today..

+ Core i5 2.4Ghz normal. 2.93 Ghz Performance Mode
- 4GB DDR3 installed / 8GB max
+ 500GB HD
+ Geforce 310M with 512MB
+ LED Backlit 1366x768 13.3" screen
- 2Kg
- Backlit keyboard
-+ Win 7 Pro (ok... so not OSX.. but for some people thats a +)
+ HDMI out
+ Finger Print Reader
- SD Card Slot
- Bluetooth / GigaEthernet
+ Wireless cellular modem 7.2Mbps
- Webcam

Macbook Pro 13.3" top end model - £1174.00

- Core 2 Duo 2.5 Ghz
- 4GB DDR3 installed/ 8GB Max
- 250GB HD
- Geforce 9400M with 256MB - Shared with Main memory...
- LED Backlit 1280 x 800 13.3" screen
- 2.04Kg
- SD Card Slot
- Backlit keyboard
- Mini Display port (add £ for an adapter to connect to anything useful)
- Bluetooth / GigaEthernet
+ OSX
- Webcam


If that isnt lagging behind the competition H/W wise by a fair margin I dont know what is...

(And Im writing this on my iMac waiting for the macbook pro's to be refreshed.. I want one too, but Im just not enough of a MUG to buy one right now. Nor am I in denial that Apple's kit is overpriced for what it currently offers.... )
post #21 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by RussellSakay View Post

Dell and HP have the #1 Operating System? Hell No


ignoring all the other crap that I'm too tired to argue...please for the love of god explain to me what a #1 operating system is? Is it based off of popularity, market share, sales? Obviously not....is it based off of what is popular in Russell's bedroom? Ok, you got me there. But even though this is an Apple-centric website, lets not forget that for whatever reason you want to ascribe to it, we're in the 5% minority who use OS X. I agree personally, I like OS X more....but seriously, you make us all look like crazed fanatics with statements like that.
post #22 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by RussellSakay View Post

What Dell and HP has a NVidia 9400 Graphics chip? Really? No...
Apple still uses serial port drivers? Wait... No.
Dell has illuminated key boards? What! No.
Dell and HP have full sized touch sensitive mouse pads with finger commands? Wait... No
Dell and HP both use LCD HD Displays? Nope
Both Dell and HP use high resolution mega pixal graphics support? No
Dell and HP have the #1 Operating System? Hell No

Need I go on?

Oh wait Dell comes in colors... WOW! That makes me want one! Oh wait the graphics card is part of the mother board and if the card goes up the hole mother board goes up too. Sounds Expensive! Oh yea I for got all the virus protective software and the monthly virus protection plan.


Idiot

I'm not going to disagree with your arguments here, but I believe that the OP is more or less venting frustration about the anticipated MPB update. I think most everyone on this forum is quite ready for the next processor update for the MPBs, and similarly even though the Mini did receive a recent update it is a great candidate for the new Intel processors too. Aside from the processor front, arguably one of the most sought after upgrades is USB 3.0 but this isn't really a matter of Apple lagging behind here it's more of a matter of not being as bleeding edge as some people want.

One other point... You mentioned SSD drives? The price of these things right now really makes them pretty much cost prohibitive for a lot of buyers. Personally I have my sights set on the mid-tier 15" MBP and at $2400 (including tax) the $675 upgrade for the 256GB SSD is simply too much. That said, another year or two and these things will be both bigger and much more affordable. I really like the idea someone posited about having say a 256GB SSD for OS and core apps and then a second internal half or one TB rotation hard drive for storage.

Here's to hoping that Apple will pop out the MPB update soon.
post #23 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by iGenius View Post

My Dell has an illuminated keyboard. It also has a 1080p screen and a quad-core i7 processor and both HDMI and eSATA outputs. And a Blu-Ray player.

Apple is well behind the curve, and offers none of these except the little LED beneath the keyboard. How innovative...

Apple has Quad 4 in their towers.

Dell and HP had Solid Stat Drives before Apple? Nope
post #24 of 91
well, for me i am waiting for Blu-Ray on

1- Blu-Ray
2- USB 3

really hoping to get this in
1- MBP
2- Mac Pro or maybe midrange desktop mac, or high end imac (really prefer without monitor), but apple makes you go imac or mac pro.... a real bummer.
post #25 of 91
If Dell and Hp are sooo advanced why am I not seeing any of them with HDMI ports, still being made with the old out dated 1960's serial pin connectors in the back? Plus please tell me what the heck is with all the stupid LCD terminal lights? Mac has one light to let you know it asleep. Why all the other lights, do people really need to know that their Hard Drive is running?
post #26 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by mitchelljd View Post

well, for me i am waiting for Blu-Ray on

1- Blu-Ray
2- USB 3

really hoping to get this in
1- MBP
2- Mac Pro or maybe midrange desktop mac, or high end imac (really prefer without monitor), but apple makes you go imac or mac pro.... a real bummer.

Jobs will never put Blue Tech in an Apple. Blue is bad and not that marketable. The disks are cheap and the technology is more in wireless now then disk. Aren't you tired yet of CDs, DVDs, and Other stupid physical drivers that bog down battery life and still use moving parts?
post #27 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

Has there ever been a company with Apple's high market cap that also had Apple's high growth rate combined with their astounding profit margins/cash on hand?

It's hard to figure what AAPL will do because it seems to be in a unique position...
Part of me says "they can't keep growing like this with the same profit margins" but then I look at the room for growth in their markets... Crazy!

This is my conundrum too! Well-said.
post #28 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by lewchenko View Post


You are in denial about your points, and seriously need to get out more to see what the competition is doing..


I guess the one thing that most PC manufacturers have is the newest i3/i5/i7 processors combined with better GPU's. Quite important if you are thinking of buying a laptop now to last you 3 yrs.

Also I notice you didnt compare with the Sony S Vaio range... Of course not, thats because it kicks the Macbook pro's ass for less money.

Take the S model S11V9E ... for £1128.00 (a price no macbook pro can get close to for these specs) - available to buy today..

+ Core i5 2.4Ghz normal. 2.93 Ghz Performance Mode
- 4GB DDR3 installed / 8GB max
+ 500GB HD
+ Geforce 310M with 512MB
+ LED Backlit 1366x768 13.3" screen
- 2Kg
- Backlit keyboard
-+ Win 7 Pro (ok... so not OSX.. but for some people thats a +)
+ HDMI out
+ Finger Print Reader
- SD Card Slot
- Bluetooth / GigaEthernet
+ Wireless cellular modem 7.2Mbps
- Webcam

Macbook Pro 13.3" top end model - £1174.00

- Core 2 Duo 2.5 Ghz
- 4GB DDR3 installed/ 8GB Max
- 250GB HD
- Geforce 9400M with 256MB - Shared with Main memory...
- LED Backlit 1280 x 800 13.3" screen
- 2.04Kg
- SD Card Slot
- Backlit keyboard
- Mini Display port (add £ for an adapter to connect to anything useful)
- Bluetooth / GigaEthernet
+ OSX
- Webcam


If that isnt lagging behind the competition H/W wise by a fair margin I dont know what is...

(And Im writing this on my iMac waiting for the macbook pro's to be refreshed.. I want one too, but Im just not enough of a MUG to buy one right now. Nor am I in denial that Apple's kit is overpriced for what it currently offers.... )

Dell is the cheapest made crap out there on the market inside and out.

Who the hell needs a finger print reader, hiding Gov. secrets?

Macbook can get a 1 TB Hard Drive if you want you and do it yourself even. Buy one for what 100.00 US.
Macbooks can have up to
* Processor up to 3.06GHz3
* Memory up to 8GB
* Hard drive up to 500GB
* 128GB or 256GB solid-state drive

NVIDIA GeForce 9400M + 9600M GT with 512MB

vs what...

Core i5 2.4Ghz normal. 2.93 Ghz Performance Mode
- 4GB DDR3 installed / 8GB max
+ 500GB HD
+ Geforce 310M with 512MB

so lets see 9400M/9600M vs Dell's what... 310M lol
post #29 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by RussellSakay View Post

Dell is the cheapest made crap out there on the market inside and out.

Who the hell needs a finger print reader, hiding Gov. secrets?

Macbook can get a 1 TB Hard Drive if you want you and do it yourself even. Buy one for what 100.00 US.
Macbooks can have up to
* Processor up to 3.06GHz3
* Memory up to 8GB
* Hard drive up to 500GB
* 128GB or 256GB solid-state drive

NVIDIA GeForce 9400M + 9600M GT with 512MB

vs what...

Core i5 2.4Ghz normal. 2.93 Ghz Performance Mode
- 4GB DDR3 installed / 8GB max
+ 500GB HD
+ Geforce 310M with 512MB

so lets see 9400M/9600M vs Dell's what... 310M lol

Macs door way to the wireless internet the AirPort, because soooo many Dells uniquely have one now... NOT
post #30 of 91
LOL WTF happened to this thread??
post #31 of 91
And how many of those super-gee-whiz fast i5/i7 laptops are going tits-up due to heat-related issues? I'll take build quality and system stability over unoticeably faster internal components any day.
post #32 of 91
LOL you spec-hounds just don't get it.
post #33 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by lewchenko View Post

Even more amazing considering most of Apple's current mac products use old out of date technology and are in dire need of updates....
Im looking at you Macbooks/Macbook Pros/Airs/Minis/Mac Pro's !

Whilst the user experience may well be 1st class, there is nothing worse that flogging off year old tech at launch prices.

The user experience matters a great deal more than sporting the latest and greatest internals. There was a time when computers were dramatically underpowered and as such when every few months a new much faster chip came to market, folks were clamouring to be the first on the block to get their hands on one. Now that's much less the case.

I have the latest Mini running a 2.53Ghz processor and 4 gigs of RAM. I'm currently editing an HD video and while a little more power would be welcome, I am getting the job done despite not having optimized the h.264 footage produced by my Canon hybrid. If I can do this with a consumer-grade Mini, how relevant is horsepower these days.

Also, it's no coincidence that the Mini is among the most reliable machines in the Apple stable. Running long-in-the-tooth hardware also means running established hardware less prone to issues.

Keep in mind, too, that part of what you're paying for when you buy a Mac is a very good suite of apps including an OS that is a whole lot cheaper to keep up to date than its Windows rival. It helps, also, that Apple software tends to be far less bug-infested than the stuff Microsoft puts out, especially in terms of the OS.

You get what you pay for yet what many consumers haven't figured out is that there is a reason why PCs spec out impressively yet offer up an inferior user experience. It's kind of like putting a 200-watt amp in your car and attaching it to crappy speakers. The end result is predictably disappointing.
post #34 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

LOL you spec-hounds just don't get it.

Ignore List works well. Except when my entire screen is taken up by one user's minimized posts....
post #35 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

LOL WTF happened to this thread??

It's gotten out of hand. Many of the talking points about Macs stated in this thread can technically be found in an HP or Dell in some regard, just not all at once and just not nearly as well engineered or implemented.

As Bageljoey stated about Apple being in a unique position, part of that position isn't having to scurry to advertised the newest processor marketing term for a BTO model that will hardly sell while they push millions with dual-core Pentiums across the world, or trying to find a way to add more ports because it looks better on a spec sheet to the unknowledgeable buyer.

Even now with the iPad we hardly know any of the internal specs but Apple is selling us on the experience, not just a few key components. I wish more companies would compete this way.
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post #36 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

Has there ever been a company with Apple's high market cap that also had Apple's high growth rate combined with their astounding profit margins/cash on hand?

It's hard to figure what AAPL will do because it seems to be in a unique position...
Part of me says "they can't keep growing like this with the same profit margins" but then I look at the room for growth in their markets... Crazy!

Please see the history of EMC...except their growth/margins/cash was even more astounding, highest market growth of any public company during the 90's. Their primary revenue draw was expensive storage solutions that while unarguably best in class, were much more expensive than the next cheapest solutions (sound familiar?). Because of this lack of differentiation and relative high cost product, when the market crashed in early 2000's, they suffered immensely, as their bread and butter customers were also hurting and were more interested in saving money then necessarily purchasing the top end products. They seemed to hit their stride though in the last 6 years diversifying and acquiring complementary companies and speculating at the right time (VMWare anyone?). It appears Apple is following this model with the recent purchase of LaLa, and I wouldn't be surprised to see many more smallish type acquisitions over the next 18-24 months. Those acquisitions, coupled with Apple continuing to diversify their product portfolio, look like an excellent game plan as we head into the next decade, and is why the market is very bullish on the stock.
post #37 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Ignore List works well. Except when my entire screen is taken up by one user's minimized posts....

I gave it up because of that. Plus, the newer posters trying to add useful information were being pushed off the site by these trolls. So now I respond to debunk them.
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post #38 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Ignore List works well. Except when my entire screen is taken up by one user's minimized posts....

Which means AI's Ignore feature is either broken or poorly-implemented. But perhaps that's the only way it can be done.
post #39 of 91
RussellSakay, just because a chip has more Ghz doesn't mean it's faster.
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post #40 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

Which means AI's Ignore feature is either broken or poorly-implemented. But perhaps that's the only way it can be done.

It's how it's designed by vBulletin. Only the Global Ignore option known as "Tachy Goes To Coventry" will remove the posts from showing up in any regard, though Mods can still see them.


PS: When is vBulletin going to offer an iPhone-optimized option?
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