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Blockbuster 2010 Mac sales expected to carry into February for Apple - Page 2

post #41 of 91
3/8/10 at 7:52am
Quote:
Originally Posted by lewchenko View Post


You are in denial about your points, and seriously need to get out more to see what the competition is doing..

I guess the one thing that most PC manufacturers have is the newest i3/i5/i7 processors combined with better GPU's. Quite important if you are thinking of buying a laptop now to last you 3 yrs.

Also I notice you didnt compare with the Sony S Vaio range... Of course not, thats because it kicks the Macbook pro's ass for less money.

Take the S model S11V9E ... for £1128.00 (a price no macbook pro can get close to for these specs) - available to buy today..

+ Core i5 2.4Ghz normal. 2.93 Ghz Performance Mode
- 4GB DDR3 installed / 8GB max
+ 500GB HD
+ Geforce 310M with 512MB
+ LED Backlit 1366x768 13.3" screen
- 2Kg
- Backlit keyboard
-+ Win 7 Pro (ok... so not OSX.. but for some people thats a +)
+ HDMI out
+ Finger Print Reader
- SD Card Slot
- Bluetooth / GigaEthernet
+ Wireless cellular modem 7.2Mbps
- Webcam

Macbook Pro 13.3" top end model - £1174.00

- Core 2 Duo 2.5 Ghz
- 4GB DDR3 installed/ 8GB Max
- 250GB HD
- Geforce 9400M with 256MB - Shared with Main memory...
- LED Backlit 1280 x 800 13.3" screen
- 2.04Kg
- SD Card Slot
- Backlit keyboard
- Mini Display port (add £ for an adapter to connect to anything useful)
- Bluetooth / GigaEthernet
+ OSX
- Webcam


If that isnt lagging behind the competition H/W wise by a fair margin I dont know what is...

(And Im writing this on my iMac waiting for the macbook pro's to be refreshed.. I want one too, but Im just not enough of a MUG to buy one right now. Nor am I in denial that Apple's kit is overpriced for what it currently offers.... )

I did the math and got a price of £1179.00* and £1328.00 to get 3 years of the necessary McAfee® anti-virus vs. Apple's intrinsic virus-free-for-life program.

Then there is Unibody, 7 hours battery, Multi-Touch trackpad, etc

And the free software that comes with every Mac, i.e., iLife (iPhoto, iMovie, GarageBand, iWeb, iDVD)

And proven the best service/support in the world.

All that and as Green as well. Perhaps not as green with envy as you are.

So talk about denial. It looks good on you.

*https://shop.sonystyle-europe.com:44...tive=true)/.do
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post #42 of 91
3/8/10 at 8:00am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

LOL you spec-hounds just don't get it.

i have an ASUS UL30 that is getting 10+ hours battery life with kubuntu....
mainly why i don't tote my macbook pro around anymore. i miss the sturdy aluminum body on the mac but otherwise the asus isn't too bad.
mac air would be lovely but just not worth that much cash. would love a 800 or less Air....
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post #43 of 91
3/8/10 at 8:08am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abster2core View Post

I did the math and got a price of £1179.00* and £1328.00 to get 3 years of the necessary McAfee® anti-virus vs. Apple's intrinsic virus-free-for-life program.

Then there is Unibody, 7 hours battery, Multi-Touch trackpad, etc

And the free software that comes with every Mac, i.e., iLife (iPhoto, iMovie, GarageBand, iWeb, iDVD)

And proven the best service/support in the world.

All that and as Green as well. Perhaps not as green with envy as you are.

So talk about denial. It looks good on you.

*https://shop.sonystyle-europe.com:44...tive=true)/.do




here's how you choose no specs needed......if you are spending 999+ look into Macs....if you want walmart cheap go with pc.....
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post #44 of 91
3/8/10 at 8:10am
Quote:
Originally Posted by MsNly View Post

RussellSakay, just because a chip has more Ghz doesn't mean it's faster.

Ok... is the the same as size doesn't matter lol
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post #45 of 91
3/8/10 at 8:11am
Quote:
Originally Posted by screamingfist View Post

here's how you choose no specs needed......if you are spending 999+ look into Macs....if you want walmart cheap go with pc.....

Love that comparison!
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post #46 of 91
3/8/10 at 8:14am
Quote:
Originally Posted by screamingfist View Post

here's how you choose no specs needed......if you are spending 999+ look into Macs....if you want walmart cheap go with pc.....

Missing a Country?

Hmm the US? It has no links to anywhere? There's search box, but for what? and a link list of countries, Sony needs to stay out of the computer business and keep making PS3s and TVs.

https://shop.sonystyle-europe.com/So...ve=true%29/.do
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post #47 of 91
3/8/10 at 8:23am
Quote:
Originally Posted by RussellSakay View Post

If Dell and Hp are sooo advanced why am I not seeing any of them with HDMI ports, still being made with the old out dated 1960's serial pin connectors in the back? Plus please tell me what the heck is with all the stupid LCD terminal lights? Mac has one light to let you know it asleep. Why all the other lights, do people really need to know that their Hard Drive is running?

I guess no one can answer this?
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post #48 of 91
3/8/10 at 8:23am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

Has there ever been a company with Apple's high market cap that also had Apple's high growth rate combined with their astounding profit margins/cash on hand?

It's hard to figure what AAPL will do because it seems to be in a unique position...
Part of me says "they can't keep growing like this with the same profit margins" but then I look at the room for growth in their markets... Crazy!

Probably they can't, if they aren't able to keep pulling a new rabbit out of their hat every three years or so. It's easy to imagine what would have happened if the iPhone hadn't come along just as the iPod growth was starting to level off.
Please don't be insane.
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post #49 of 91
3/8/10 at 8:26am
Quote:
Originally Posted by RussellSakay View Post


Dell is the cheapest made crap out there on the market inside and out.

Who the hell needs a finger print reader, hiding Gov. secrets?

Macbook can get a 1 TB Hard Drive if you want you and do it yourself even. Buy one for what 100.00 US.
Macbooks can have up to
* Processor up to 3.06GHz3
* Memory up to 8GB
* Hard drive up to 500GB
* 128GB or 256GB solid-state drive

NVIDIA GeForce 9400M + 9600M GT with 512MB

vs what...

Core i5 2.4Ghz normal. 2.93 Ghz Performance Mode
- 4GB DDR3 installed / 8GB max
+ 500GB HD
+ Geforce 310M with 512MB

so lets see 9400M/9600M vs Dell's what... 310M lol

Do you have learning difficulties? If so I will forgive, but I was talking about Sony's S series.. I never mentioned Dell. Also you can quote all those upgrades all you want, but the Sony is cheaper than the macbook pro to begin with so your points are mute.
You also clearly dont know the difference between processors of the i5 calibre and the Core 2 Duo otherwise you wouldnt wave 3.06Ghz around like it was something to be proud of.

Seriously... all your credibility just vanished out the window with that post. You are the worst kind of apple fanboy... wrong about your facts, cant read what other people write, and totally in denial about technology across multiple companies.

Basically.. you are an embarrassment. (Sorry to be personal, but seriously you need to wisen up).
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post #50 of 91
3/8/10 at 8:32am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Probably they can't, if they aren't able to keep pulling a new rabbit out of their hat every three years or so. It's easy to imagine what would have happened if the iPhone hadn't come along just as the iPod growth was starting to level off.

Yes, I agree. At some point in the next few years, Apple's trick will be to maintain -- perhaps, at best, increase incrementally -- the already-created stock market value with continuous innovation, growing their earnings to match the market expectations.

As an aside, here's an interesting empirical question: Other than in the oil/gas or state sector, how many sustainably $400B+ market cap companies are there worldwide? Not many, I suspect.

Is there an 'absolute value' limit on corporate size?
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post #51 of 91
3/8/10 at 8:34am
Quote:
Originally Posted by delreyjones View Post

I think you raise good questions. I sure don't know what their future growth will look like, but as a stockholder I hope for the best. That said, Apple's market cap is so large that I believe their P/E ratio won't go back up to the 30s and 40s again, and that's okay by me. I like it when the E pushes the P up, rather than having huge expectations pull the P up. In my opinion, the lower P/E makes APPL a safer investment, but their healthy growth and business model still delivers healthy returns.

A lowered P/E means investors believe collectively that the company's earnings growth rates have declined or will decline. That does not make a stock safer investment -- far from it. It just means that your future returns will be lower, and that's never a good thing. Trailing P/E (the one most often quoted) is strictly a measure of anticipation. You're right, AAPL's P/E isn't likely to go as high as 40 again, unless investors really start to believe in the major growth story again. Only part of this is within Apple's control. If the iPad looks like it will be a hit, P/E will shoot up again.
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post #52 of 91
3/8/10 at 8:35am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abster2core View Post

I did the math and got a price of £1179.00* and £1328.00 to get 3 years of the necessary McAfee® anti-virus vs. Apple's intrinsic virus-free-for-life program.

Then there is Unibody, 7 hours battery, Multi-Touch trackpad, etc

And the free software that comes with every Mac, i.e., iLife (iPhoto, iMovie, GarageBand, iWeb, iDVD)

And proven the best service/support in the world.

All that and as Green as well. Perhaps not as green with envy as you are.

So talk about denial. It looks good on you.

*https://shop.sonystyle-europe.com:44...tive=true)/.do

Dabs.com price it at £1128. You are paying full retail at Sony.

Also... Ive never bought a virus killer ever. So stop with the unnecessary hype. You can buy Virus killers for Macs too you know (but are also not needed).

I'll give you multi touch trackpad though and iLife. . Unibody... Most people dont give a damn about it as a critical comparison point. (well I dont)
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post #53 of 91
3/8/10 at 8:45am
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Yes, I agree. At some point in the next few years, Apple's trick will be to maintain -- perhaps, at best, increase incrementally -- the already-created stock market value with continuous innovation, growing their earnings to match the market expectations.

As an aside, here's an interesting empirical question: Other than in the oil/gas or state sector, how many sustainably $400B+ market cap companies are there worldwide? Not many, I suspect.

Is there an 'absolute value' limit on corporate size?

Good question. Apple is starting to move into uncharted territory for a large tech company. It would be interesting to go back and look at how rapidly and for how long IBM grew explosively during its heyday. Another obvious comparison would be Microsoft. From the early '80s (or whenever they went public, I'd have to look it up) until around 2000 they grew at a staggeringly rapid rate. Relative to market of that time, probably the same question could have been asked about them. Both are cautionary tales too about the need for tech companies to continue to push the envelope, to not just rest on their laurels. All of these companies are faced with the problem of building on previous successes, not just repeating them. A daunting challenge.
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post #54 of 91
3/8/10 at 8:51am
Quote:
Originally Posted by lewchenko View Post

Do you have learning difficulties? If so I will forgive, but I was talking about Sony's S series.. I never mentioned Dell. Also you can quote all those upgrades all you want, but the Sony is cheaper than the macbook pro to begin with so your points are mute.
You also clearly dont know the difference between processors of the i5 calibre and the Core 2 Duo otherwise you wouldnt wave 3.06Ghz around like it was something to be proud of.

Seriously... all your credibility just vanished out the window with that post. You are the worst kind of apple fanboy... wrong about your facts, cant read what other people write, and totally in denial about technology across multiple companies.

Basically.. you are an embarrassment. (Sorry to be personal, but seriously you need to wisen up).

Your in a total different dimension aren't you. As far as Japanese Technology is Sony is ok. But they are one of the lowest sold computer in the US. Don't know much about Europe. You must remember that they are still running the poorest OS in history and this 7 OS is just souped up XP. Their system still depends on good virus protection, there you have it your argument as you so put it is Mute.
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post #55 of 91
3/8/10 at 8:59am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Good question. Apple is starting to move into uncharted territory for a large tech company. It would be interesting to go back and look at how rapidly and for how long IBM grew explosively during its heyday. Another obvious comparison would be Microsoft. From the early '80s (or whenever they went public, I'd have to look it up) until around 2000 they grew at a staggeringly rapid rate. Relative to market of that time, probably the same question could have been asked about them. Both are cautionary tales too about the need for tech companies to continue to push the envelope, to not just rest on their laurels. All of these companies are faced with the problem of building on previous successes, not just repeating them. A daunting challenge.

MS focus on SW, IBM on HW and both of them had substantial growth by playing to the low end of the market. Apple may make their money from HW but they create an environment not easily copied or replicated and are still mostly focusing on higher-end, even within the cheaper segments of the CE market. For instance, the iPod Nano compared to other PMPs in its class.

I think this gives them a long term benefit over MS and IBM and allows them to grow more steadily into wider markets of the lower-end slowly as the upper-tiers slowly get saturated. Perhaps a better comparative example would be Cisco, who also make the HW and SW and are considered the cream of the crop for the router market, but that in itself has some comparative issues. For starters, the lack of a consumer element and of course the stock stagnation since the dot.com crash a decade ago.
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post #56 of 91
3/8/10 at 9:00am
Quote:
Originally Posted by RussellSakay View Post

Your in a total different dimension aren't you. As far as Japanese Technology is Sony is ok. But they are one of the lowest sold computer in the US. Don't know much about Europe. You must remember that they are still running the poorest OS in history and this 7 OS is just souped up XP. Their system still depends on good virus protection, there you have it your argument as you so put it is Mute.

Is that it... That is your comeback ?


OMG. You came back with NOTHING. NADDA. ZIP.

Virus killers and Windows 7 is XP... really ? Thats your best ? Education my friend... its your only saviour !
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post #57 of 91
3/8/10 at 9:13am
Quote:
Originally Posted by gFiz View Post

Please see the history of EMC...except their growth/margins/cash was even more astounding, highest market growth of any public company during the 90's. Their primary revenue draw was expensive storage solutions that while unarguably best in class, were much more expensive than the next cheapest solutions (sound familiar?). Because of this lack of differentiation and relative high cost product, when the market crashed in early 2000's, they suffered immensely, as their bread and butter customers were also hurting and were more interested in saving money then necessarily purchasing the top end products. They seemed to hit their stride though in the last 6 years diversifying and acquiring complementary companies and speculating at the right time (VMWare anyone?). It appears Apple is following this model with the recent purchase of LaLa, and I wouldn't be surprised to see many more smallish type acquisitions over the next 18-24 months. Those acquisitions, coupled with Apple continuing to diversify their product portfolio, look like an excellent game plan as we head into the next decade, and is why the market is very bullish on the stock.


i work for an EMC customer. the strategy is to sell the storage boxes at cost and make it up on hard drives and support. think $800 for a 500GB hard drive and $40,000 a year or so for support
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post #58 of 91
3/8/10 at 9:24am
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

MS focus on SW, IBM on HW and both of them had substantial growth by playing to the low end of the market. Apple may make their money from HW but they create an environment not easily copied or replicated and are still mostly focusing on higher-end, even within the cheaper segments of the CE market. For instance, the iPod Nano compared to other PMPs in its class.

I think this gives them a long term benefit over MS and IBM and allows them to grow more steadily into wider markets of the lower-end slowly as the upper-tiers slowly get saturated. Perhaps a better comparative example would be Cisco, who also make the HW and SW and are considered the cream of the crop for the router market, but that in itself has some comparative issues. For starters, the lack of a consumer element and of course the stock stagnation since the dot.com crash a decade ago.

What they make really doesn't matter that much, IMO. Whatever the market is, the company is forced to expand it by successfully opening up new product fronts which build on their previous successes. A lot of what the iPad is (and is not) can be understood this way. To keep the growth rates running, they need to sell a lot of iPads, probably more than they sold of iPhones off the blocks.

Also, the explosive IBM of the '50s and '60s hardly played to the low end of any market. In fact their most important product during this period was neither software or hardware, it was service. Not only did they put the iron into the companies (mainframes, keypunch machines, etc), they put their people on the ground to make sure it all worked. The secret to their success during this period. They repeated this success with typewriters. It looked like IBM was a company that could never lose, but they did not really have an act three. When minicomputers were replacing mainframes, IBM was outflanked by HP and DEC.
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post #59 of 91
3/8/10 at 9:43am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

To keep the growth rates running, they need to sell a lot of iPads, probably more than they sold of iPhones off the blocks.

I do wonder what the sales will be the opening weekend and beyond in relation to the iPhone. The iPad does have the advantage of not requiring a data plan, but the iPhone was truly unique and phones are a necessity.

I think within a few years we'll see the tablet market become relevant and within 5 years the iPad could outpace the Mac in terms of revenue and profit, despite continued record growth in Mac sales.

Quote:
When minicomputers were replacing mainframes, IBM was outflanked by HP and DEC.

Then they were outsmarted with the personal computer by not holding applicable patents and by allowing MS to sell their OS to others. One a mistake of torpidity, the other of hubris.
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post #60 of 91
3/8/10 at 10:09am
Quote:
Originally Posted by RussellSakay View Post

Jobs will never put Blue Tech in an Apple. Blue is bad and not that marketable. The disks are cheap and the technology is more in wireless now then disk. Aren't you tired yet of CDs, DVDs, and Other stupid physical drivers that bog down battery life and still use moving parts?

No way, i like my optical drive and need it frequently. for a 15" MBP to go without optical, i wouldn't buy it. you want that, get an air.

for battery life? hah, most places i go have power. i need a portable office, even when i fly, where i can burn discs. cd's for music samples. and then also BD so i can backup my photography and video.

so... i really want BD. Need BD. and don't really think Battery life is all the PR on it is saying. and even if so, I CAN PLUG INTO POWER most of the time.
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post #61 of 91
3/8/10 at 10:13am
Quote:
Originally Posted by lewchenko View Post

Is that it... That is your comeback ?


OMG. You came back with NOTHING. NADDA. ZIP.

Virus killers and Windows 7 is XP... really ? Thats your best ? Education my friend... its your only saviour !

Since all you had was Sony is having sex with you in your bedroom, I figure I didn't need much more. Oh yea you can have the best hardware in the world and it will still suck as a user experience when you have to disallow or allow everything you do. And your computer company is still depending on that anti virus meal ticket Norton and others have on you. They make a virus so you have to spend money. Not trying to sound conspiracy freakish here but who knows money is still money even if Microsoft has to deal with Norton or McCafree on the side for increased revenue.

I would rather as you so proudly put it have old technology in my Mac then to belong to the Virus Protection Tripe.
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post #62 of 91
3/8/10 at 10:17am
Quote:
Originally Posted by mitchelljd View Post

No way, i like my optical drive and need it frequently. for a 15" MBP to go without optical, i wouldn't buy it. you want that, get an air.

for battery life? hah, most places i go have power. i need a portable office, even when i fly, where i can burn discs. cd's for music samples. and then also BD so i can backup my photography and video.

so... i really want BD. Need BD. and don't really think Battery life is all the PR on it is saying. and even if so, I CAN PLUG INTO POWER most of the time.

I'm not trying to argue here, its just that Apple seems to be going the wireless way with everything now. Maybe and just maybe the iPad is the next computer? I wish it was a real computer and not just a big iPod Touch with cool new laptop features but maybe this is just a test trial and there will be a iPad Pro out there in the future.
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post #63 of 91
3/8/10 at 10:17am
Quote:
Originally Posted by mitchelljd View Post

No way, i like my optical drive and need it frequently. for a 15" MBP to go without optical, i wouldn't buy it. you want that, get an air.

for battery life? hah, most places i go have power. i need a portable office, even when i fly, where i can burn discs. cd's for music samples. and then also BD so i can backup my photography and video.

so... i really want BD. Need BD. and don't really think Battery life is all the PR on it is saying. and even if so, I CAN PLUG INTO POWER most of the time.

Then it sounds like you won't be a Mac customer for too much longer since backing up to a disc is by far the slowest, most power hungry and least economical way to back up files. It's also the worst option for the typical consumer when playing video. Anyone with even rudimentary computer knowledge will copy their DVD video when traveling to keep from using excessive power and having to carry discs with them.

If carrying a spool of discs isn't an issue for you then using an external optical drive shouldn't matter either.

PS: The air isn't a viable solution for most as it's not just a removal of the ODD but the use of a CULV processor and 1.8" drive, neither of which is desired for performance, capacity and cost reasons.
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post #64 of 91
3/8/10 at 10:26am
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post

i work for an EMC customer. the strategy is to sell the storage boxes at cost and make it up on hard drives and support. think $800 for a 500GB hard drive and $40,000 a year or so for support

sure now it is (they even sell some below cost), plus consulting services, dedup, DR, etc etc. My point was what led to their decline and their rebirth was moving to provide an total solution rather than just an excellent product, and I think that's the direction Apple is moving to, between their own Macs, Apple TV, iPod, iPad, iPhone, iTunes movies and music....they're basically trying to fulfill every an any entertainment need.
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post #65 of 91
3/8/10 at 10:29am
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I do wonder what the sales will be the opening weekend and beyond in relation to the iPhone. The iPad does have the advantage of not requiring a data plan, but the iPhone was truly unique and phones are a necessity.

I think within a few years we'll see the tablet market become relevant and within 5 years the iPad could outpace the Mac in terms of revenue and profit, despite continued record growth in Mac sales.

All eyes will be on that first weekend, then the month or so after that, when the research firms will start doing their retail surveys. No doubt we'll see a lot of wildly variable numbers, just like we did for the iPhone in its early days. Then in July we'll get the official rake from Apple in the earnings report, or if the sales are really good, at WWDC in June. Meantime investor's knuckles are bound to get a little white.

Quote:
Then they were outsmarted with the personal computer by not holding applicable patents and by allowing MS to sell their OS to others. One a mistake of torpidity, the other of hubris.

That's a complicated story. The IBM-PC was intended as a rear-guard maneuver to protect their larger market in heavy iron. Nobody at that time really knew if the PC market was real so I don't think IBM can be entirely blamed for not seeing it. Ironically the IBM-PC would not have been the singular success it was if IBM had retained control. Instead probably a lot of competing hardware and software platforms would have emerged during the '80s, and we'd have seen a far more diverse and healthy market than what we got.
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post #66 of 91
3/8/10 at 10:30am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

A lot of what the iPad is (and is not) can be understood this way. To keep the growth rates running, they need to sell a lot of iPads, probably more than they sold of iPhones off the blocks.

Exactly. To move the needle in any significant way, Apple would need to proportionately increase their growth and reach with every new product -- selling a similar number (assuming similar $ margins) to the already-successful previous product is not sufficient. (I.e., if you're a $100 company and create a product that increases the market cap by $10, you'll need the next product to increase it by $11 to produce the same return for shareholders).

That is tough to do. Growth is, as a result, mean-reverting.
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post #67 of 91
3/8/10 at 10:30am
Gene Munster always seems to be the only analyst who "gets it".
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post #68 of 91
3/8/10 at 10:45am
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Exactly. To move the needle in any significant way, Apple would need to proportionately increase their growth and reach with every new product -- selling a similar number (assuming similar $ margins) to the already-successful previous product is not sufficient. (I.e., if you're a $100 company and create a product that increases the market cap by $10, you'll need the next product to increase it by $11 to produce the same return for shareholders).

That is tough to do. Growth is, as a result, mean-reverting.

I never thought of growth rates as reverting to a mean, but I suppose that's one way to look at it. The other side of this coin is that Apple has huge leveraging opportunities due to their previous successes with consumers. With all of the moaning/groaning about the iPad's limitations, it's clear that Apple understands the difficulty of this dive and designed the product accordingly. They must appeal to a certain portion of their customer base that already knows and likes the iPhone, and get a buy-in from a new segment of buyers in order to keep the earnings growth rate on fire beyond the next year or two. The nag that remains at the back of my mind is the knowledge that many companies which once looked unbeatable have been beaten.
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post #69 of 91
3/8/10 at 10:49am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

All eyes will be on that first weekend, then the month or so after that, when the research firms will start doing their retail surveys. No doubt we'll see a lot of wildly variable numbers, just like we did for the iPhone in its early days. Then in July we'll get the official rake from Apple in the earnings report, or if the sales are really good, at WWDC in June. Meantime investor's knuckles are bound to get a little white.

I have to wonder if waiting the 3 weeks for the 3G version to come out would not have been a better move (in some way) since I know several people who had planned on just getting the WiFi model in the interim and then buying the 3G model later, but with the launch dates less than month apart they are just going to wait.
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post #70 of 91
3/8/10 at 10:56am
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I have to wonder if waiting the 3 weeks for the 3G version to come out would not have been a better move (in some way) since I know several people who had planned on just getting the WiFi model in the interim and then buying the 3G model later, but with the launch dates less than month apart they are just going to wait.

I'm not waiting, plain on preordering the 64 GB Wifi.

Question is for the preorder there is a rumor going around that people who preorder get a free gift, is that true?
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post #71 of 91
3/8/10 at 11:02am
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I have to wonder if waiting the 3 weeks for the 3G version to come out would not have been a better move (in some way) since I know several people who had planned on just getting the WiFi model in the interim and then buying the 3G model later, but with the launch dates less than month apart they are just going to wait.

Hard to say based on what we know now. Apple seemed extremely anxious to get this product into circulation, enough so that they did the public dog and pony show more than two months before anyone could buy it. I know they did this for the iPhone as well, and it helps build the buzz, but my sense of this for the iPad is that Apple felt their window of opportunity was slipping away. They had to have an answer to why someone should not buy a cheap WIndows netbook for their mobile needs, and they wanted consumers to know what it was sooner rather than later.
Please don't be insane.
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post #72 of 91
3/8/10 at 11:09am
Quote:
Originally Posted by RussellSakay View Post

I'm not waiting, plain on preordering the 64 GB Wifi.

Question is for the preorder there is a rumor going around that people who preorder get a free gift, is that true?

I haven't heard of that. What kind of gift? They have been giving the first 100 or so at some stores a t-shirt with the new iPhones and the first day(s) got a special bag to go with it.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Hard to say based on what we know now. Apple seemed extremely anxious to get this product into circulation, enough so that they did the public dog and pony show more than two months before anyone could buy it. I know they did this for the iPhone as well, and it helps build the buzz, but my sense of this for the iPad is that Apple felt their window of opportunity was slipping away. They had to have an answer to why someone should not buy a cheap WIndows netbook for their mobile needs, and they wanted consumers to know what it was sooner rather than later.

The first Phone needed the intro because their customer base is likely under contract. The 6 month window allowed for 25% to effectively be out of contract. The future iPhones also allowed for the ut of contract option a little bit, but mostly it seemed to allow developers to be ready with apps for the next version of iPhone OS.

The iPad seems to fall under the developer umbrella with a secondary reason to get publishers ready for the iPad launch, which was the one area Apple wasn't controlling well, and likely to get more publishers on board. I have to wonder if there is a third reason in regards to video that we have yet to hear about.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #73 of 91
3/8/10 at 11:20am
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

The first Phone needed the intro because their customer base is likely under contract. The 6 month window allowed for 25% to effectively be out of contract. The future iPhones also allowed for the ut of contract option a little bit, but mostly it seemed to allow developers to be ready with apps for the next version of iPhone OS.

The iPad seems to fall under the developer umbrella with a secondary reason to get publishers ready for the iPad launch, which was the one area Apple wasn't controlling well, and likely to get more publishers on board. I have to wonder if there is a third reason in regards to video that we have yet to hear about.

The other factor is that Apple used to be more constrained as to when they rolled out products, so they showed the iPhone for the first time at MWSF in January. That was so far in advance of shipping that the only one anyone could see was a dummy in a glass case. I believe Apple certainly could have worked with more developers under NDAs and made a simultaneous announcement and product release for the iPad, but they opted instead for this way. Perhaps your "third reason" is that too many details were beginning to leak out. I know that it's not as exciting a reason as an unannounced feature, but it seems the more likely one.
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post #74 of 91
3/8/10 at 12:35pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

MS focus on SW, IBM on HW and both of them had substantial growth by playing to the low end of the market. Apple may make their money from HW but they create an environment not easily copied or replicated and are still mostly focusing on higher-end, even within the cheaper segments of the CE market. For instance, the iPod Nano compared to other PMPs in its class.

Those are the obvious tech comparisons. But one of the important differentiators in my mind is that they both totally dominated their market on their way to the top of their market cap.

MS was selling their OS on much more than 90% of the computers sold back in the day. To grow sales, they depended on the growth of the entire market (which was explosive through the 90s). Apple, on the other hand, is at their market cap peak (so far) and they be lucky to hit 20% of computers or phones in the forseable future. The only market they dominate is the MP3 market.
It just seems crazy that Apple can have so much apparent potential for growth from where they are. Of course, it may not be possible to get to even 20% without giving up their profit margins... Still, it seems to make comparisons difficult.
Quote:
I think this gives them a long term benefit over MS and IBM and allows them to grow more steadily into wider markets of the lower-end slowly as the upper-tiers slowly get saturated. Perhaps a better comparative example would be Cisco, who also make the HW and SW and are considered the cream of the crop for the router market, but that in itself has some comparative issues. For starters, the lack of a consumer element and of course the stock stagnation since the dot.com crash a decade ago.

I hope Cisco is not a better comparison! Sell now!!
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
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Progress is a comfortable disease
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post #75 of 91
3/8/10 at 12:41pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

Of course, it may not be possible to get to even 20% without giving up their profit margins... Still, it seems to make comparisons difficult.

I think it's impossible to do. Loop at HP and Dell with their worldwide PC marketshare. There is absolutely no way Apple can do it unless they compete on the same level they are, which I don't think Apple is willing to do and if they do it once they've saturated a price region it'll take decades at the current growth rate before that would be possible.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #76 of 91
3/8/10 at 1:43pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by lewchenko View Post

Dabs.com price it at £1128. You are paying full retail at Sony.

Also... Ive never bought a virus killer ever. So stop with the unnecessary hype. You can buy Virus killers for Macs too you know (but are also not needed).

I'll give you multi touch trackpad though and iLife. . Unibody... Most people dont give a damn about it as a critical comparison point. (well I dont)

Isn't Laskys selling the MacBook Pro at £1100?

How do you create a Virus killer for something that that is immune to viruses?

So the Multi-touch trackpad and iLife is worth zero?

And because you don't give a damn, it has no value? Well, Windows and a finger print reader means nothing to most people here
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post #77 of 91
3/8/10 at 2:00pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I think it's impossible to do. Loop at HP and Dell with their worldwide PC marketshare. There is absolutely no way Apple can do it unless they compete on the same level they are, which I don't think Apple is willing to do and if they do it once they've saturated a price region it'll take decades at the current growth rate before that would be possible.

The take-away point being, the current growth rate is an excellent source of growing earnings, which is the only thing which actually matters in the end. Way too much attention is focused on market share. A company could be increasing market share in a shrinking market, or one which is not profitable. That's not how to make the stockholders happy. The way to make stockholders happy is to earn more this quarter than you did last quarter or last year.
Please don't be insane.
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post #78 of 91
3/8/10 at 4:14pm
Don't sleep on CSCO.
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post #79 of 91
3/8/10 at 6:12pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

A lowered P/E means investors believe collectively that the company's earnings growth rates have declined or will decline. That does not make a stock safer investment -- far from it. It just means that your future returns will be lower, and that's never a good thing. Trailing P/E (the one most often quoted) is strictly a measure of anticipation. You're right, AAPL's P/E isn't likely to go as high as 40 again, unless investors really start to believe in the major growth story again. Only part of this is within Apple's control. If the iPad looks like it will be a hit, P/E will shoot up again.

I agree with your first point, i.e. that lower P/E means investors collectively believe earnings (or at least growth) will decline, but with due respect you've lost me when you say a lower P/E means my future returns will be lower. My thinking goes like this: I know that I'm right some of the time and wrong some of the time. I believe the same is true of the market, i.e. your "collective investors". I happen to think that when the market gives APPL a lower P/E, the market is more likely to have underestimated Apple and my holdings are more likely to do good things in the future, i.e. I expect Apple to exceed expectations. On the contrary, when the market gives APPL a higher P/E, it's less likely that the market has underestimated Apple, and in fact it's possible that they've overestimated Apple and Jobs, and it's more likely my holdings will do bad things in the future. I know the herd is right some of the time but they're also wrong some of the time. I myself am pretty much constantly bullish on APPL (though all I do is sell now; I finished buying ten years ago) and I expect them to do better than the baked-in expectations at a P/E of 20, but I don't expect them to beat the baked-in expectations when it's up at 40.
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post #80 of 91
3/8/10 at 9:28pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by delreyjones View Post

I agree with your first point, i.e. that lower P/E means investors collectively believe earnings (or at least growth) will decline, but with due respect you've lost me when you say a lower P/E means my future returns will be lower. My thinking goes like this: I know that I'm right some of the time and wrong some of the time. I believe the same is true of the market, i.e. your "collective investors". I happen to think that when the market gives APPL a lower P/E, the market is more likely to have underestimated Apple and my holdings are more likely to do good things in the future, i.e. I expect Apple to exceed expectations. On the contrary, when the market gives APPL a higher P/E, it's less likely that the market has underestimated Apple, and in fact it's possible that they've overestimated Apple and Jobs, and it's more likely my holdings will do bad things in the future. I know the herd is right some of the time but they're also wrong some of the time. I myself am pretty much constantly bullish on APPL (though all I do is sell now; I finished buying ten years ago) and I expect them to do better than the baked-in expectations at a P/E of 20, but I don't expect them to beat the baked-in expectations when it's up at 40.

I take your point, but unfortunately we never know which scenario is going to play out. A lower P/E can mean the stock is undervalued, but only if earnings continue to outstrip those lowered expectations in which case investors will bid the P/E upwards, eventually, if it looks sustainable. If earnings growth rates do decline then the market will keep those P/E ratios lower to reflect that reality. Bottom line, declining P/E can be harbinger of either impending value or declining earnings, we just don't know which until after the fact. You have to place your bets on which one you think it will be.

Take the last AAPL earnings report for instance. They blew out consensus earnings estimates but the market collectively yawned and allowed the P/E drop. This doesn't mean next time the markets will behave any differently if the markets still don't believe that 3-6-9 months from now that they'll repeat the performance.
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