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Preorders for Apple iPad slow after 120K first-day rush

post #1 of 188
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Enthusiasts tracking presales of the iPad believe Apple sold 120,000 units on its first day of availability, though excitement is estimated to have dropped considerably on days two and three.

Users on the AAPL Sanity Board at Investor Village have taken their order numbers and used them to figure out how many total preorders Apple has taken for the iPad. On Friday, the first day of availability, they determined that an estimated 51,000 units were sold in the first two hours. By the end of the day, they found that 120,000 were secured in the first 24 hours.

But according to Philip Elmer-DeWitt with Fortune Brainstorm Tech, by Saturday and Sunday those order estimates had slowed to about 1,000 per hour, suggesting demand for the device died off considerably after the first day.

Daniel Tello, who has been tracking the numbers closely, predicted that Apple will sell about 30,000 iPad preorders on weekdays, and half of that on weekends. He forecasts no more than a half-million preorders and reservations will be taken before the April 3 launch. He told Elmer-DeWitt he believes Apple will sell 1 million iPads by the second week after the device ships.

Most among the preorders tracked at Investor Village opted for the Wi-Fi-only model, coming on top by a two-to-one margin. The Wi-Fi iPad will be available April 3, while the 3G-enabled versions, which carry a $130 premium, will arrive later that month. Preorders saw a relatively even split among capacities, with the largest model, 64GB, accounting for 35 percent of orders.

Users who wish to add to the iPad sales tracking project can help by sending their order number with the last three digits X-ed out, the number of iPads ordered, order time, time zone, memory capacity and whether they purchased a 3G or Wi-Fi model to ipadsales10@gmail.com.

Despite the sharp drop-off in preorders, a half-million sales before the product ships would be an excellent start for Apple, as low-end estimates on Wall Street had forecast the iPad would sell 1 million units in its entire first year. Tello's numbers, on the other hand, would have Apple reaching that milestone in a matter of weeks.
post #2 of 188
I think once people start to see them in the hands of others in trains, planes and coffee shops, this will take off.

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post #3 of 188
The Wi-Fi only model makes a lot of sense. The iPad is far less likely to be a device many of us will carry around outside the home in many situations in contrast to pocketable devices like the iPhone and Touch.

Even if one were to bring it along in some situations, with a wealth of content stored on the unit and many programs as well, lack of 3G capability will not mean the iPad is useless beyond the range of one's router.

We all pay ridiculous amounts of money to service providers as it is. I suspect yet another monthly bill is not something many of us are that willing to take on.
post #4 of 188
You're kidding me, you expected maybe 100,000 a day all week?
All this before any of us insignificant mortals have touched one :-)
It's still gonna be at least 5M in the first year - $3 Billion + hehe
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post #5 of 188
First day sales rush is most likely all the hardcore who will buy anything apple puts out, as well as all the niche customers who need a device exactly like this and trust apples quality.
I think there will be another large rush once they are in stores and people have the chance to put their hands on them. As well many people are probably holding out for the 3g model.
post #6 of 188
i ordered mine @ 9 am EST just because of what was promised. App Store apps will work on day 1. i have to assume that means apps like Ignition and Jaduu... having that huge screen will make this a perfect lazy admin tool.
post #7 of 188
I am old fashioned. I actually like to see the product first.
post #8 of 188
Lots of sales at the outset, then things slow down? Mind boggling.

Or not. Pent-up demand always works like this. So many words thrown upon such an obvious phenomenon.
post #9 of 188
Do you think the 3G preorders will fall below or exceed the WiFi ones?
post #10 of 188
Quote:
Originally Posted by OzExige View Post

You're kidding me, you expected maybe 100,000 a day all week?
All this before any of us insignificant mortals have touched one :-)
It's still gonna be at least 5M in the first year - $3 Billion + hehe

It wasn't stated that 100,000 was expected, but merely that the sales have dropped off since day one.

I was all ready to pull the trigger and buy one, sell my laptop, and just use my Mac Mini and iPad for the foreseeable future. I just cannot get past the lack of flash support. I realize that flash will be weeded out in the longer term, but this will not happen in the next few months, but instead a couple of years. Also, the lack of capabilities in the browser, such as text searching really bothers me. Maybe rev. 2?

I had SUCH HIGH HOPES for the iPad to be more like a refined, flash-based Axiotron Modbook, instead of a more powerful iPhone-like device. If the iPad had used the iPhone OS, but with more capabilities (specifically including optional stylus input for entering kanji by hand like I can do on a tablet PC) I would have jumped on it the first day no matter its other limitations. I guess many of us will have to see what the iPhone OS 4.0 will bring to Apple's devices.
post #11 of 188
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carmissimo View Post

The Wi-Fi only model makes a lot of sense. The iPad is far less likely to be a device many of us will carry around outside the home in many situations in contrast to pocketable devices like the iPhone and Touch.

I love my iPhone for on the go calendar, contacts, mail, etc. I'm a mobile me user. I see the iPad as a Better mobile utility than lugging around my MacBook pro. I'm still considering my options, but I live in japan where we have 3G everywhere and iPhone has been so good for me because of the network connection. That's why I'm thinking the 3G model, even though I may also not want another monthly fee for Internet. As excited as I am, I'll go play with one in the apple store before I buy one. I think a lot of people will. But just because apple is trying to role up the home market doesn't mean we all see it as a home device.
post #12 of 188
I predict a lot of people will pull predictions out of their asses as to how many or why people will buy certain models.
post #13 of 188
I'm gonna pre-order soon, I still haven't ordered mine. I'm moving in 2-3 weeks and haven't figured out my new address. Either way I'm getting the 64GB iPad 3G which wont be out until late April. I might as well pick it up from the Apple Store when I move there. No rush here.

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iPod nano 5th Gen 8GB Orange, iPad 3rd Gen WiFi 32GB White
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post #14 of 188
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carmissimo View Post

The Wi-Fi only model makes a lot of sense. The iPad is far less likely to be a device many of us will carry around outside the home in many situations in contrast to pocketable devices like the iPhone and Touch.

Even if one were to bring it along in some situations, with a wealth of content stored on the unit and many programs as well, lack of 3G capability will not mean the iPad is useless beyond the range of one's router.

We all pay ridiculous amounts of money to service providers as it is. I suspect yet another monthly bill is not something many of us are that willing to take on.

I disagree with this assessment. I do agree that I am not interested in being tied to another monthly charge, that is why the month to month plan at a reasonable rate is so huge. When I buy, it will be the 3G. It will cost me $45 a year in data charges because I will only sign up for the summer and one other month that encompases a vacation (depending on whether I travel Chrimas or Easter to visit the parents).
The one time premium will be made up quickly over the summer.
AND I will have the option to expand my use if I see value in it that I do not anticipate at
present.

Still, like many, I will not buy until
I touch it and get user reviews. But I don't feel like I will need to wait until Rev B for this device...
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post #15 of 188
The iPad is perfect for traveling! Who needs a full-blown laptop? If you're a business person, and need a laptop with you, then you're not really on vacation, are you?
post #16 of 188
I think that it makes sense that the pre-orders for the Wi-Fi only models would exceed the 3G models since buying the 3G requires a commitment for service. When the iPad becomes available on April 3rd, sales of the 3G's will most like increase.
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #17 of 188
What about international pre-orders? There are people who want to pre-order in the UK, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, etc.
post #18 of 188
Quote:
Originally Posted by JustReelFilms View Post

What about international pre-orders? There are people who want to pre-order in the UK, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, etc.

Not many I bet. The iBooks store is a US exclusive, so the iPad abroad is an ereader with no ebooks.

Apple aren't, understandably, publicising the lack of books abroad. I wonder how many returns they'll get on day two when people find out about this somewhat deal breaking oversight.
post #19 of 188
Am waiting for iPad to arrive to the stores. I myself am unlikely to buy it, since I have both 13 inch MacBook and a Touch, but I know a few people who are interested, who have a 15 inch windows laptops that are too bulky to make it to the couch on regular basis. They would have otherwise went with a netbook, but I tell people to hold off until they can make a trip to the apple store and see the device for themselves.

As far as the lack of 3g, I've actually been doing quite well without it on the Touch. I get WiFi at home, school, work, library, and sometimes even on the L from people who have unsecured connection. Yes there are times when I wish I had 3G, especially for maps and last.fm, but its not as big a deal as I thought it would be, especially with the limits ATT puts on its 3G customers.
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post #20 of 188
I'm considering getting one. I have an ancient 900Mhz G3 iBook that I only use for web and email. It's my couch and bedroom computer... for surfing and email. That's the only thing I use it for. Doesn't even have any files on it. So the iPad would be a perfect replacement for that. It would also be great as a device for client meetings... to present creative mockups and take quick email notes. I think it would be better than a laptop for that actually because you can put it on a table with a few people and sit around it in a circle and all see it / spin it / pass it around easily... without having to gather 'round a laptop or pass a laptop around.
post #21 of 188
Quote:
Originally Posted by sfoalex View Post

I think once people start to see them in the hands of others in trains, planes and coffee shops, this will take off.

Maybe for the Starbucks poser crowd, but my vouch is for store presence. I know at least 3 persons who wait for a hands on preview 1st.
post #22 of 188
Quote:
Originally Posted by FineTunes View Post

I think that it makes sense that the pre-orders for the Wi-Fi only models would exceed the 3G models since buying the 3G requires a commitment for service. When the iPad becomes available on April 3rd, sales of the 3G's will most like increase.

The 3G doesn't require a commitment. You can start and cancel your service as you please without an activation charge.
post #23 of 188
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell View Post

I am old fashioned. I actually like to see the product first.

I agree.

The other factor for me is what apple does with their REMOTE app, which would be the killer app for me. I don't really love the idea of controlling home audio through an ipod touch, but an iPad? That would be awesome. The fact that "virtually" all app store apps will work on the iPad is cold comfort here, since the Remote App is of particular strategic importance and Apple has certainly considered it separately.

When I research the Remote App on apple.com it is for the iphone and ipod touch. Conspicuously ZERO mention of the ipad. But for me, and for many, many others, I think this would seal the deal, especially once you hold it in your hands.

This cannot have been overlooked. Thoughts?
post #24 of 188
Keep in mind the source. PED finds a negative slant to anything AAPL. It's apparently his job.


I think a roughly $140 million in revenue (200k in pre-orders and reserved pickups with asap 700 across models including accesories) from a product that hasn't shipped is incredible. I think they are working hard on the licensing for books and network parteners abroad and that another spike of similar magnitude is likely when it is available outside the US.

On a side note, do you think u will be able to use the ipad with 3g as a tether? I know u can't tether it through an iPhone but if I pay my $30 for 5g through the ipad I would really like to be able to tether it.
post #25 of 188
I was on the verge and buying the $499 model with Applecare ($598) and maybe that $40 case then I thought about my 1.0 experiences with Apple products, the good and the bad, then I just got a bigger capacity iPod touch. I'll wait to see it and use it before I pull the trigger.

In regards to the coffee shop folk, I won't be leaving the house with it either because I don't care what people think anyway. If I like it I like it.
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post #26 of 188
I'm sure that beyond, "Us", everyone and anyone interested in buying one would actually like to see the physical thing in person, touch it, use it, and then take it home.

Most people don't pre-order brand new 1st gen products. But many did.
post #27 of 188
Quote:
Originally Posted by Takeo View Post

I'm considering getting one. I have an ancient 900Mhz G3 iBook that I only use for web and email. It's my couch and bedroom computer... for surfing and email. That's the only thing I use it for. Doesn't even have any files on it. So the iPad would be a perfect replacement for that. It would also be great as a device for client meetings... to present creative mockups and take quick email notes. I think it would be better than a laptop for that actually because you can put it on a table with a few people and sit around it in a circle and all see it / spin it / pass it around easily... without having to gather 'round a laptop or pass a laptop around.

My 12" powerbook was treated the same way, gradually turning into a netbook, until my toddler puked all over the keyboard a few weeks ago. My wife and I have a lot more time to talk at home now.
If apple wanted to suck all the oxygen out of the netbook market they could release a baby OS for all their old G3 and G4 laptops to turn them into netbooks. Self-destructive, but Al Gore would smile.
post #28 of 188
Quote:
Originally Posted by FineTunes View Post

I think that it makes sense that the pre-orders for the Wi-Fi only models would exceed the 3G models since buying the 3G requires a commitment for service. When the iPad becomes available on April 3rd, sales of the 3G's will most like increase.

Not necessarily so. Just because you buy a 3G does not mean you have to activate it. I am only assuming that you are stating that once a person buys a 3G unit that they will be motivated to get a data plan simply because the device is capable of it.

I opted for the 3G unit and do plan to get a data plan simply because I do not carry a cell phone and do allot of data moving. Keeping the MBP with me at all times and trying to get a WiFi signal or cable connection is tedious at times and for most of what I need, the iPad and a data plan will do just fine. I really considered a data plan with a dongle for the MBP at one time but it was higher priced and to have to deal with a dongle that could get snapped off easily did not set well with me. I have OnStar in my Denali and need nothing more than that for connivence.

There you go, two cents for the day...
post #29 of 188
Quote:
Originally Posted by kotatsu View Post

Not many I bet. The iBooks store is a US exclusive, so the iPad abroad is an ereader with no ebooks.

Apple aren't, understandably, publicising the lack of books abroad. I wonder how many returns they'll get on day two when people find out about this somewhat deal breaking oversight.

So you are saying that third-party ebook apps currently available for the iPod touch and iPhone are banned on the iPad?
post #30 of 188
Quote:
Originally Posted by JTBLQ View Post

I was on the verge and buying the $499 model with Applecare ($598) and maybe that $0 case then I thought about my 1.0 experiences with Apple products, the good and the bad, then I just got a bigger iPod touch. I went from an original 8GB to 3rd gen 32GB. I'll wait to see it and use it before I pull the trigger.

In regards to the coffee shop folk, I won't be leaving the house with it either because I don't care what people think anyway. If I like it I like it.

Early adopters do not fair well compared to 2.0. Even my brother who used to be a product manager at Apple used to say "Never buy Rev A from Apple."
post #31 of 188
Quote:
Originally Posted by kotatsu View Post

Not many I bet. The iBooks store is a US exclusive, so the iPad abroad is an ereader with no ebooks.

Apple aren't, understandably, publicising the lack of books abroad. I wonder how many returns they'll get on day two when people find out about this somewhat deal breaking oversight.

I thought that the pre-order option was a US only deal. From what I've been reading, Apple is working on book deals for outside the US.
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #32 of 188
So they're using number of claimed pre-orders on an apple fansite to estimate how many are have actually been pre-ordered worldwide?

Wow, I bet it's really accurate.

Maybe the real reason for the drop-off in "pre-orders" after the first day is that the thread is no longer at the top of the AAPL forum, so less fanboys are claiming to have bought one already...
post #33 of 188
So... no mention of reservations, unless I read too fast. Personally, I reserved mine for pick up. That way I get it earlier and get to have some fun. If you live near an Apple Store it really is the better option. I wonder what percentage is doing that instead and if they are trying to track it -- I don't think there's an easy way to do so.

Anyway, I agree that this is a product most people will need to try first. I personally said that from day one. I was starting to think I might have been wrong, but it seems it will be the case.
post #34 of 188
I live in New Zealand,I will be purchasing the iPad as soon as pre orders become available, I dont know why Jobs didnt stick to his word and launch worldwide simultaneously. as for the ibookstore eventually all countries will have access to it
post #35 of 188
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onhka View Post

So you are saying that third-party ebook apps currently available for the iPod touch and iPhone are banned on the iPad?

It is currently only Apple's iBookstore that won'r be released internationally - all the other Amazon Kindle etc apps will be available, as far as any indication has been given thus far. The question would be if Apple will allow them to port to the iPad or not as a part of the "nearly all" App Store applications will work on the iPad.
post #36 of 188
iPhone sales averaged about 13,300 per day during the first three months. They escalated to about 24,000 per day in the second quarter when international sales came into the picture.

If the iPad can exceed or come close to iPhone launch numbers then it will be an amazingly successful product.

Will analysts like Gartner count it as a computer? If they do, Apple's market share numbers could double or triple.
post #37 of 188
Quote:
Originally Posted by LTMP View Post

The 3G doesn't require a commitment. You can start and cancel your service as you please without an activation charge.

Not the point. Why pay extra for something and not use it. If you want a 3G you will have to pay extra for the service. Wi-Fiers can use the iPad at home, library or coffee shop for free so its not as much a gamble as a commitment to a 3G option is.
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #38 of 188
Quote:
Originally Posted by kotatsu View Post

Not many I bet. The iBooks store is a US exclusive, so the iPad abroad is an ereader with no ebooks.

Apple aren't, understandably, publicising the lack of books abroad. I wonder how many returns they'll get on day two when people find out about this somewhat deal breaking oversight.

The troll is baaaaack......! Hi, how're you doing, kotatsu?
post #39 of 188
All people who really wanted the iPad got it on the first day. Not that many apple fanboys...

Will see how this device is accepted and if (possible) slow sales will force Jobs to announce Flash support for "the best browsing experience"
post #40 of 188
Quote:
Originally Posted by benny-boy View Post

Early adopters do not fair well compared to 2.0. Even my brother who used to be a product manager at Apple used to say "Never buy Rev A from Apple."

If he did say that, then he's not to be trusted, because it isn't true at all.

Come point out the flaws in my 4gb iPhone from iDay 07? I can't seem to find them.

Neither can I find anything wrong with my 7,1 iMac, first aluminum model on the market, still runs beautifully. Not one problem.

I've also had day one iPhone 3G, and day one iPhone 3GS. Not one has ever had a problem. The entire don't buy Rev A concept is a fraud by anyone who promotes it.
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