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Apple to build 8-10M iPads in 2010, begins shipping preorders

post #1 of 92
Thread Starter 
As Apple began shipping the first iPads to those who first preordered, a new report on Monday said the company plans to ship between 8 million and 10 million devices in the 2010 calendar year.

In a new note to investors, analyst Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley said suppliers for the iPad have currently forecast 2.5 million iPads to be shipped in the first three months of availability, from March to May. In all, Apple will ship between 8 million and 10 million by the end of 2010, suppliers said -- a number much higher than the previous expectation of 5 million.

Huberty said the upward revisions to iPad build rates "point to strong initial pre-orders." Every one million iPads shipped equates to roughly 25 cents of earnings per share. A strong iPad debut, she said, sets up for "significant earnings upside."

The consensus on Wall Street, she said, is that Apple will sell between 3 million and 4 million iPads in the product's first year. But supplier shipping projections suggest the Cupertino, Calif., company will exceed market expectations.

"Near-term, we believe iPad will target the sizeable sub-$800 consumer notebook market, which equates to 30 million units in the U.S. and 120 million units globally," the report said. "Medium-term, newly introduced content (books, magazines, video) and iPad-optimized apps could broaden the addressable market and strengthen iPad sales momentum later this year."

Huberty said she believes the market is currently under-appreciating the long-term demand for the iPhone and iPad. She projects that Apple could have more than a 10 percent share of global handset sales, and 25 percent of the smartphone market, in the next 3 to 4 years.

Morgan Stanley has maintained its overweight rating for AAPL stock, with a price target of $250.

Also Monday, Apple began shipping iPads for those who placed the first preorders. Wi-Fi-only models have been shipped via UPS and are due to be delivered in the U.S. on April 3.

Apple has sold out of its initial run of iPad preorders. As of Saturday, those who attempted to prepurchase were informed that their device will ship by April 12.

Strong demand for iPad accessories has also caused delays. Those who didn't buy in on the first run of preorders for the keyboard dock and power adapter will now have to wait until May.

When it began accepting preorders earlier this month, Apple limited purchases to two per person. The company also turned down volume orders for businesses, suggesting a tight supply for the device's launch. It was estimated that Apple secured 120,000 iPad preorders in the first day alone.
post #2 of 92
10 000 000? Not bad. What about iTunes? Current version supports iPad or we should see iTunes update in next few days?

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Which of us is the fisherman and which the trout?

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post #3 of 92
This is wonderful! Fantastic!

Giovanni B. Saccone
Creativity is just connecting things (Steve Jobs)
> > > My wEb SiTe < < <

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Giovanni B. Saccone
Creativity is just connecting things (Steve Jobs)
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post #4 of 92
Wow, I never realised that the netbook market was so large. I guess Apple could easily sell 8-10 million in such a big pond.

P.S. How about a MBP refresh now that the iPad is shipping, please?
post #5 of 92
This is great! I suspect that there is a very large number of purchases by companys that plan on testing the iPad. The company I work for is planning to begin testing immediately.
post #6 of 92
WOO HOO !!!

Just got an email from Apple that my 64GB Wi-fi iPad has shipped for delivery by April 3rd. UPS tracking info shows "In-Transit" from Shenzen, China.

Looks like they are shipping pre-orders from China, directly to buyers. That's why they have to ship a week before April 3.

No word on my second (16GB) yet.
post #7 of 92
Apple is doomed!
:-D * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
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:-D * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
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post #8 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by TiAdiMundo View Post

Not even one customer had this product in their hands! Must be great to have so many stupid loyal customers. SCTR :P

Well that's one way to look at it. How about it's a good thing to have such high quality products that your customers can trust you.
post #9 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandau View Post

Apple is doomed!

We're all doomed Dec. 12, 2012

Until then, way to go Apple
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #10 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by TiAdiMundo View Post

Not even one customer had this product in their hands! Must be great to have so many stupid loyal customers. SCTR :P

Loyal, yes, but shouldn't we quit calling them stupid before anybody has had a chance to see for themselves how good the iPad is? My feeling is that all these early adopters who have preordered an iPad unseen KNOW what the iPad is and isn't, and have decided that this is a device they would find useful and enjoyable. Nothing stupid about that, is there?
post #11 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by TiAdiMundo View Post

Not even one customer had this product in their hands! Must be great to have so many stupid loyal customers. SCTR :P

How does strong sales of a new device equate to "stupid loyal customers"? This is a device that has been eagerly anticipated by many, and many of those are outside of the typical fanbase for Apple. This is a product type that has had lots of interest for a LONG time now. Apple has proven to produce a fantastic product in the past, just look at the iPhone as the most recent example, so it's no great surprise that the iPad is enjoying strong initial sales. How many preorder copies of Vista did Microsoft sale, or Windows 7? I'm going to guess it was in the millions, and yet not one "stupid loyal customer" had the release version of those operating systems in their hands either.

Yes I am a loyal Apple customer. However, loyalty is something that must be earned, at least in my case. For me, Apple has done just that from iPod to Mac Pro to iPhone, and now to iPad. If I hadn't had excellent products from Apple along the way, there is no way I would shell out the money for this particular product. History however, my personal history, has shown Apple to produce high quality devices that are a pleasure to use. Of course I have my reservations such as lack of Flash support, no secondary storage like an SD card slot, and no real multi-tasking as of yet. Hopefully however Apple will address at least the multi-tasking issue soon.

Anyway, I'll be looking for my shipping notice throughout the day.
post #12 of 92
Rounding Error!
post #13 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandau View Post

Apple is doomed!

No..... Apple is doomed!

There, fixed that for you.......
post #14 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by kent909 View Post

Well that's one way to look at it. How about it's a good thing to have such high quality products that your customers can trust you.

My sentiments exactly.
post #15 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by TiAdiMundo View Post

Not even one customer had this product in their hands! Must be great to have so many stupid loyal customers. SCTR :P

When you put stupid, loyal and customer together, you know there's nothing much left to discuss with you in business sense.
post #16 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by TiAdiMundo View Post

Not even one customer had this product in their hands! Must be great to have so many stupid loyal customers. SCTR :P

that is what many said about iPhone !!...the stupid one's...LOL
post #17 of 92
Are they paying the extra fee for UPS to have all the pre-orderes delivered on a Saturday???
post #18 of 92
Bad, bad Apple, how long do I have to wait before you decide to release the iPad in my part of the world?

Apple is doomed!
post #19 of 92
I should be on the list!!!!

Where's my GD shipment notification?!?!?!?!?
post #20 of 92
Would those who balked at the idea of them selling 4 million in the first year now come and apologise?
post #21 of 92
And the 3g iPad numbers haven't been account for yet, this will be a real "game-changer"!!
post #22 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by TiAdiMundo View Post

Not even one customer had this product in their hands! Must be great to have so many stupid loyal customers. SCTR :P

Loyal yes, stupid no. You however...
post #23 of 92
Definitely artificial popularity, nothing more.

Doomed!
na na na na na...
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na na na na na...
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post #24 of 92
Apple is now more valuable than GE or Walmart.

MSFT next. XOM not too far...... (then I start to worry).
post #25 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garion View Post

Loyal, yes, but shouldn't we quit calling them stupid before anybody has had a chance to see for themselves how good the iPad is? My feeling is that all these early adopters who have preordered an iPad unseen KNOW what the iPad is and isn't, and have decided that this is a device they would find useful and enjoyable. Nothing stupid about that, is there?

I guess you call it consumer confidence. Wonder what the pre-order figures for iPad's competitors are????
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #26 of 92
Congratulations to all who have received shipping notices!!

Now hopefully this extremely disappointing "later in the year" nonsense for the rest of the world will be changed to "immediately".
post #27 of 92
Huberty is always one of the less optimistic analysts, so this bodes pretty well for Apple. At the same time, $0.25/share per million is roughly $220 net profit per unit. That is a bit higher than I would expect, and despite the fact that I think cannibalization will be minimal, wouldn't account for any.

Happy to be a shareholder!
post #28 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinney57 View Post

Would those who balked at the idea of them selling 4 million in the first year now come and apologise?

Well they're right in a sense, 8-10M isn't 4M now is it?
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #29 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandau View Post

Apple is doomed!

Has anyone who projects the failure of Apple & the iPad has considered that the computer world software has become so bloated with features that are not used? The Apple iPhone, iTouch & now the iPad have SIMPLE programs that do ONE function very well and at a very reasonable price (and often free!)

This is what computing started out to be.... simple & easy. We all crave it now in our harried lives. That is why everyone is lining up for this product - SIMPLICITY with style.

Apple: BRING IT ON! You have my trust - sight unseen & my $$ (6 figures of stock)
post #30 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Huberty is always one of the less optimistic analysts...

Since when? I haven't seen her come out with a well-reasoned analysis yet. Beware any stock decisions based on her and Wu's comments.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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post #31 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Huberty is always one of the less optimistic analysts, so this bodes pretty well for Apple. At the same time, $0.25/share per million is roughly $220 net profit per unit. That is a bit higher than I would expect, and despite the fact that I think cannibalization will be minimal, wouldn't account for any.

Happy to be a shareholder!

You need apps for the iPad. Maybe she figures everyone will spend at least $50 on apps and buy at least one accessory.
post #32 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

]P.S. How about a MBP refresh now that the iPad is shipping, please?

I think, given SJ's recent email saying, "Not to worry," that the MBP and MP refresh is not far away. And, although it may be entirely unrelated, I did notice that they added another financing option at the Store sometime recently: 18 months free financing on orders over $2500.
post #33 of 92
Is Apple really planning on selling 8-10 million iPads in 2010, as the article suggests?
That number just seems incredible, doesn't it?

I mean, hey I'm an Apple-cheering iPad optimist, but even I thought I was stretching it when I predicted 4-5 million iPads sold in 2010, which is in the high end of what the analysts predict.

If these numbers reported are correct, what gives Apple so much confidence in the iPad? After all we are talking about a whole new category of devices for Apple, and noticably a product category that has so far been a flop as a mass market product. And Apple expects to sell 8-10 million units of this thing in the first 9 months? A million a month?? Really?
For comparison it took Apple 74 days to sell its first million iPhones.
post #34 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Huberty is always one of the less optimistic analysts, so this bodes pretty well for Apple. At the same time, $0.25/share per million is roughly $220 net profit per unit. That is a bit higher than I would expect, and despite the fact that I think cannibalization will be minimal, wouldn't account for any.

Happy to be a shareholder!

Cannibalization will probably be high among the iPod touch. iPod touch market share may grow quick enough to make up for the cannibalization though. I doubt it effects the initial orders. These orders are from app developers, IT testing, web developers, and Apple enthusiasts. With 150,000 apps, a significant part of the first day sales could be accounted for by developers.
post #35 of 92
That those iPad numbers will be achieved. Seems like wishful thinking. I think it will sell well though.

My opinion of the iPhone is that until Apple opens it up to other carries in the U.S., that the growth is somewhat limited. Is their customer base just selling a new iPhone to their diehard fans every year? They need to increase the subscriber base if they want to keep growing profits.
post #36 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Masteric View Post

That those iPad numbers will be achieved. Seems like wishful thinking. I think it will sell well though.

My opinion of the iPhone is that until Apple opens it up to other carries in the U.S., that the growth is somewhat limited. Is their customer base just selling a new iPhone to their diehard fans every year? They need to increase the subscriber base if they want to keep growing profits.

The iPad has a lot of mainstream uses. Additionally this product will fit in a lot of niche markets that never had an appropriate device. This will be very big. You need to remember that these pre-orders are for the US only. Apple sells more products outside the US then they do here. They are an international icon after all. You can count on more then doubling the initial sales here after it launches in other countries.

The iPhone and iPad are two different things. Most of the iPhone growth is from other countries, not from repeat buyers. I imagine with an update in June that many people will be ready to upgrade their phones for the first time though. I think this will be bigger then then 3GS launch in the states.
post #37 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garion View Post

If these numbers reported are correct, what gives Apple so much confidence in the iPad?

Probably the preorder sales figures outstripped all of Apple's internal estimates.

They've already turned off preorders (or said that they won't ship until the 12th), switched touchscreen vendors (due to yield problems), and it looks like their initial production run has sold out.

It is also possible that Apple is seeing very heavy development activity by third-party software companies.

Also, it is likely that Apple has a better idea of when international launches will take place and perhaps some of those are sooner than originally forecasted.
post #38 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by esummers View Post

Cannibalization will probably be high among the iPod touch. iPod touch market share may grow quick enough to make up for the cannibalization though. [...]

I don't think it will much affect the iPod Touch's sales, entirely different use cases. If anything, it will affect MB and lower end MBP sales, but those "lost" sales will likely convert to desktop+ iPad sales .
post #39 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garion View Post

Is Apple really planning on selling 8-10 million iPads in 2010, as the article suggests?
That number just seems incredible, doesn't it?

I mean, hey I'm an Apple-cheering iPad optimist, but even I thought I was stretching it when I predicted 4-5 million iPads sold in 2010, which is in the high end of what the analysts predict.

If these numbers reported are correct, what gives Apple so much confidence in the iPad? After all we are talking about a whole new category of devices for Apple, and noticably a product category that has so far been a flop as a mass market product. And Apple expects to sell 8-10 million units of this thing in the first 9 months? A million a month?? Really?
For comparison it took Apple 74 days to sell its first million iPhones.

I think the article says that they're going to be building that many, not selling... there is a lot of channel inventory and store stock. I think Apple likes to have about 6 weeks of inventory in the channel, meaning that the actual sell-through will be less than that.

But if they get enough buzz, especially surrounding the iPad-as-a-gaming-system, Apple could have a very nice Christmas quarter.
post #40 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Probably the preorder sales figures outstripped all of Apple's internal estimates.

They've already turned off preorders (or said that they won't ship until the 12th), switched touchscreen vendors (due to yield problems), and it looks like their initial production run has sold out.

It is also possible that Apple is seeing very heavy development activity by third-party software companies.

Also, it is likely that Apple has a better idea of when international launches will take place and perhaps some of those are sooner than originally forecasted.

It feels like 3rd party products are coming out quicker then Apple expected. This will be a fun ride.
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