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NPD Group iPad buying survey, NOT GOOD

post #1 of 9
Thread Starter 
Very interesting survey. Some quotes from the article.


Quote:
Among all those surveyed (2000), only 9 percent said they were extremely or likely to buy the device in the next six months. That was the same percentage for (existing) Apple owners, while just 10 percent of those aged 18 to 34 said the same.

Among all consumers, 66 percent said they were not very likely or not likely at all to buy an iPad in the next six months. That percentage held true for those 18 to 34 years of age, while 60 percent of Apple owners felt the same.

Among the 18- to 34-year-olds questioned, 57 percent tagged price as the main reason they're not ready to open their wallets for the iPad. Even 43 percent of Apple owners think the price is too high.

Among 18- to 34-year-olds, 51 percent said they'd rather use a notebook or netbook, while 44 percent of Apple owners echoed that sentiment.


Read it all for yourself here

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-20001320-37.html
post #2 of 9
If 9% of the target market makes a purchase, that's an absolutely incredible success.
post #3 of 9
Price too high?
What's wrong with people??

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iPod nano 5th Gen 8GB Orange, iPad 3rd Gen WiFi 32GB White
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post #4 of 9
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonton View Post

If 9% of the target market makes a purchase, that's an absolutely incredible success.

Average 9.5% times the number of current Apple product users and yes it's pretty decent.

I don't think the PC crowd acceptance percentage is going to be as high as current Apple users due to the fact that the iPad costs just as much as a decent desktop machine or laptop, still not as cheap as a netbook. And they need to run Office and Flash, both the iPad can't do right now.

The iPad isn't going to be a failure, just that it's sales are going to be generally to those who need a extension of their current device and currently Apple product users. Like iMac owners who want a portable device.

Apple is pushing the iPad as a standalone device, but it's really not, people are going to be upset when they try to buy one and find out it requires a computer to use. Just like they were upset with the iPod, but it's going to get them into the Apple Store where they can be upselled.

If one does buy a iPad, then they are subject to upselling again, a iPad Case, adapters, backup drives etc.

Take a look at this chart of iPod Touch and iPod owners

http://www.atelier-us.com/consumers-...ers-own-pc-too


Due to the iPad's price being higher than the iPod Touch, I'd guesstimate the eventual adoption rate will be about half of the iPod Touch. 14% for current Apple owners and 4.5% for PC owners.

Also the iPad will cannibalize sales of the iPod Touch severely, which is used mostly for games.


Whatever the iMac circulation number is, multiply this by 9-14% to get a general idea of the iPad adoption rate would be my best guesstimate.

Anyone have the estimate of how many USB iMac's have been sold?
post #5 of 9
Disclaimer: I think all of the "intending to buy" surveys are bullshit.

That said......

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Average 9.5% times the number of current Apple product users and yes it's pretty decent.

I don't think the PC crowd acceptance percentage is going to be as high as current Apple users

Quote:
Among all those surveyed (2000), only 9 percent said they were extremely or likely to buy the device in the next six months

So all your following iMac stats are irrelevant. You started this thread, at least try and make an effort to understand the data in the article that you linked to.
post #6 of 9
Thread Starter 
Using the information in my above posts, the fact that the iPad requires another computer to operate, and current Apple users are more likely to buy one verses PC users who would get more value from a laptop at the same price. Also using current iMac owners as the most likely of all groups to buy a iPad needing a portable device to float around the house with, I come up with these very rough and general adoption figures.

Worked up a chart using a average adoption rate of 11.5%

iMac's sold (USB) Potential iPads sales
1 million--------115,000
2 million--------230,000
3 million--------345,000
4 million--------460,000
5 million--------575,000
6 million--------690,000
7 million--------805,000
8 million--------920,000
9 million--------1,035,000
10 million-------1,150,000

Very good numbers, nothing to be ashamed about.

Multiply the potential iPad sales by 2.5% of children in the average American household and it gets even better.


There is currently some wild press reports of "10 million" iPads could be sold in the first year.

I think this is totally unrealistic and just designed to inflate the stock. It's more realistic that "hundreds of thousands" will likely remain the current trend until the back to school and holiday season shopping seasons arrive, then it likely will go over a million in short order.

There also will be a boost at school computer purchasing decision times, which a lot are still using laptops. So at their end of life the consideration to adopt the iPad could be made.


Apple would do good to release free wireless remote management software for iPads for classroom use long before the school season starts.

Like the iPod Touch, I feel the younger market will be the widest users of this device, more mature computers users likely be needing to be using a full strength machine so they can access Flash based sites, run Office and "Pro" apps.
post #7 of 9
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Using the information in my above posts.......

And also ignoring the information in your posts.....

"Among all those surveyed (2000), only 9 percent said they were extremely or likely to buy the device in the next six months...."

"All those surveyed" means just that.
It doesn't mean "all those surveyed... who also use an iMac".
Nor does it mean "all those surveyed... who are females with embarrassing facial hair"

These surveys are already pretty poor without you coming along and adding another layer of crap over the top of them.
post #8 of 9
And zero of the gazillion MacBook users will buy one... and zero of the MacBook Pro users will... and zero of the Mac Pro users will... and zero of the Mac Mini users will... and zero of the gazillion iPhone users who use PCs will...

RIIIGHT....

Your ignorance of logic is simply astounding.

Nothing in that data counters any claim that 10 million iPads will be sold within the first year. The data actually looks fantastic.

I doubt SpotOn has finished high school.
post #9 of 9
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonton View Post

I doubt SpotOn has finished high school.


Actually your right, I didn't finish high school, while in 8th grade I was placed in a experimental accelerated learning program in the local college, which I did four years and graduated before my high school peers did.
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