Originally Posted by tonton
If 9% of the target market makes a purchase, that's an absolutely incredible success.
Average 9.5% times the number of current Apple product users and yes it's pretty decent.
I don't think the PC crowd acceptance percentage is going to be as high as current Apple users due to the fact that the iPad costs just as much as a decent desktop machine or laptop, still not as cheap as a netbook. And they need to run Office and Flash, both the iPad can't do right now.
The iPad isn't going to be a failure, just that it's sales are going to be generally to those who need a extension of their current device and currently Apple product users. Like iMac owners who want a portable device.
Apple is pushing the iPad as a standalone device, but it's really not, people are going to be upset when they try to buy one and find out it requires a computer to use. Just like they were upset with the iPod, but it's going to get them into the Apple Store where they can be upselled.
If one does buy a iPad, then they are subject to upselling again, a iPad Case, adapters, backup drives etc.
Take a look at this chart of iPod Touch and iPod ownershttp://www.atelier-us.com/consumers-...ers-own-pc-too
Due to the iPad's price being higher than the iPod Touch, I'd guesstimate the eventual adoption rate will be about half of the iPod Touch. 14% for current Apple owners and 4.5% for PC owners.
Also the iPad will cannibalize sales of the iPod Touch severely, which is used mostly for games.
Whatever the iMac circulation number is, multiply this by 9-14% to get a general idea of the iPad adoption rate would be my best guesstimate.
Anyone have the estimate of how many USB iMac's have been sold?