NPD Group iPad buying survey, NOT GOOD

Very interesting survey. Some quotes from the article.




Read it all for yourself here

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-20001320-37.html

Average 9.5% times the number of current Apple product users and yes it's pretty decent.

I don't think the PC crowd acceptance percentage is going to be as high as current Apple users due to the fact that the iPad costs just as much as a decent desktop machine or laptop, still not as cheap as a netbook. And they need to run Office and Flash, both the iPad can't do right now.

The iPad isn't going to be a failure, just that it's sales are going to be generally to those who need a extension of their current device and currently Apple product users. Like iMac owners who want a portable device.

Apple is pushing the iPad as a standalone device, but it's really not, people are going to be upset when they try to buy one and find out it requires a computer to use. Just like they were upset with the iPod, but it's going to get them into the Apple Store where they can be upselled.

If one does buy a iPad, then they are subject to upselling again, a iPad Case, adapters, backup drives etc.

Take a look at this chart of iPod Touch and iPod owners

http://www.atelier-us.com/consumers-...ers-own-pc-too


Due to the iPad's price being higher than the iPod Touch, I'd guesstimate the eventual adoption rate will be about half of the iPod Touch. 14% for current Apple owners and 4.5% for PC owners.

Also the iPad will cannibalize sales of the iPod Touch severely, which is used mostly for games.


Whatever the iMac circulation number is, multiply this by 9-14% to get a general idea of the iPad adoption rate would be my best guesstimate.

Anyone have the estimate of how many USB iMac's have been sold?

Using the information in my above posts, the fact that the iPad requires another computer to operate, and current Apple users are more likely to buy one verses PC users who would get more value from a laptop at the same price. Also using current iMac owners as the most likely of all groups to buy a iPad needing a portable device to float around the house with, I come up with these very rough and general adoption figures.

Worked up a chart using a average adoption rate of 11.5%

iMac's sold (USB) Potential iPads sales
1 million--------115,000
2 million--------230,000
3 million--------345,000
4 million--------460,000
5 million--------575,000
6 million--------690,000
7 million--------805,000
8 million--------920,000
9 million--------1,035,000
10 million-------1,150,000

Very good numbers, nothing to be ashamed about.

Multiply the potential iPad sales by 2.5% of children in the average American household and it gets even better.


There is currently some wild press reports of "10 million" iPads could be sold in the first year.

I think this is totally unrealistic and just designed to inflate the stock. It's more realistic that "hundreds of thousands" will likely remain the current trend until the back to school and holiday season shopping seasons arrive, then it likely will go over a million in short order.

There also will be a boost at school computer purchasing decision times, which a lot are still using laptops. So at their end of life the consideration to adopt the iPad could be made.


Apple would do good to release free wireless remote management software for iPads for classroom use long before the school season starts.

Like the iPod Touch, I feel the younger market will be the widest users of this device, more mature computers users likely be needing to be using a full strength machine so they can access Flash based sites, run Office and "Pro" apps.

Actually your right, I didn't finish high school, while in 8th grade I was placed in a experimental accelerated learning program in the local college, which I did four years and graduated before my high school peers did.