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Verizon iPhone seen as 'unlikely' from Apple in 2010

post #1 of 62
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Despite a new claim that Apple is working on a CDMA-capable iPhone for the Verizon network in the U.S., one prominent analyst has said such a move is "unlikely" to happen this year.

In his latest note to investors issued on Tuesday, analyst Maynard J. Um with UBS Investment Research acknowledged a report from The Wall Street Journal on Monday, which said Apple is working on two new iPhones, including one for the Verizon network. Sources told the paper that CDMA iPhones are not scheduled to go into mass production until September.

But Um said a Verizon launch probably won't happen this year. Instead, a CDMA phone could be launched with other carriers, such as China Telecom and KDDI of Japan.

As it has done every year, Apple will introduce a new iPhone model this summer. Um said checks with industry sources indicate the next-generation model could feature a touch panel on the back of the phone, which would allow touch capabilities on both sides of the device. The new iPhone could also offer high definition video playback and recording with a 5 megapixel camera, 64GB of NAND flash storage, increased battery life, an AMOLED screen and new applications.

The analyst also expects the new iPhones to be priced the same as the current iPhone 3GS offerings, at $199 and $299. The current iPhone 3GS is also expected to drop to $99 and replace the existing iPhone 3G at that price point.

UBS has maintained its 12-month price target of $280 for AAPL stock, and maintained its "buy" recommendation for investors.

Separately, analyst Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets issued a note Tuesday noting that a subsidized iPhone on the Verizon network would add 5 million to 6 million units of sales in the first year, or an estimated $3.6 billion in revenue and 75 cents earnings per share for Apple. But he also, like Um, added that a CDMA iPhone may first be targeted at China Telecom or KDDI before Verizon

Abramsky believes Apple's second phone reported by the Journal is likely a smaller iPhone with a retail price ranging from free to $99 subsidized. The analyst expects Apple to sell 2 million entry-level iPhones in its 2010 fiscal year, and another 12 million in 2011.

"The entry-level iPhone may lack the faster processor, larger NAND memory, higher resolution screen, front-facing video camera and other features of the premium iPhone," Abramsky wrote.

After the Journal story broke Monday evening, a number of other rumors about the next-generation iPhone surfaced. Daring Fireball's John Gruber issued a report stating the new handset will have an Apple A4 processor, a custom-built system-on-a-chip like is in the forthcoming iPad, as well as a 960x640 double-resolution display and a second, front-facing camera.

Gruber also reiterated information first reported by AppleInsider earlier this month, that Apple's iPhone OS 4.0 software will add multitasking support for third-party applications.

Separately Monday, Engadget also received an anonymous tip that the fourth-generation iPhone would be dubbed the 'iPhone HD," and would be announced on Tuesday, June 22. Previous speculation had pegged a possible iPhone announcement and Worldwide Developers Conference 2010 from June 28 through July 2.
post #2 of 62
It just doesnt make any sense seems though everyone else in the world is working on or towards 3G/4G cell technology.

Seems like going to CDMA would be a step backwards in a way..... it would be like them implementing flash on the next gen iPhone.
post #3 of 62
When Apple builds I then I will believe it. I only believe after Apple unveils. Rumours are always just that with Apple. Until it's unveiled I am happy with what Apple presently offers. Never complain.
post #4 of 62
Apple is losing customers DAILY by not having the iPhone on Verizon. WTF is the barricade to doing this? If customers are silly enough to take a technological step backwards, buying a slower non-international version of the iPhone, then let them. Shake your head all the way to the bank, Steve.
post #5 of 62
These rumors are rumors. They are created and propagated by people who want to manipulate and benefit from the short term affect on the stock prices.
post #6 of 62
If I were Steve Jobs a Verizon iPhone is the last thing I'll ever do.

I want to see Ivan Seidenberg running naked in the middle of Time Square with the phrase "I'm Apple's bitch" tattooed on his ass before considering a Verizon iPhone.

Never forget! Verizon laughed off the iPhone and then attacked it in a series of ads.

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post #7 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by noexpectations View Post

These rumors are rumors. They are created and propagated by people who want to manipulate and benefit from the short term affect on the stock prices.

Exactly. It is well known that Apple is one the easiest stocks to manipulate. Apple stock can move several dollars either way in one day of trading. That means really big bucks in short term profits.
post #8 of 62
I'm personally betting iPhone won't come to Verizon until Verizon, AT&T and the other carriers all are on the same 4G LTE band. I can't see Apple making the necessary hardware and software changes that are required for Verizon's CDMA network given everyone's direction towards LTE 4G starting next year. The investment would be short lived and thus not really provide the return Apple would demand.

The other hurdle is producing an LTE 4G iPhone that has a reliable fallback to some other technology if the user is not in an LTE enabled region much like the current device reverts back to AT&T's EDGE if not in a 3G GSM area. I don't know what they do in the EU and Asian countries. Perhaps GSM is widely available in those areas so a fallback isn't necessary.

For the US, what would be the fallback for those on Verizon's network if you are not in an LTE service area? For AT&T, there is always 2G EDGE or 3G GSM. If Verizon's fallback is their CDMA, would Apple support that? Maybe if there was a dual-band chip that supported LTE/CDMA?

is it possible that a Verizon iPhone for LTE could be coming sooner than we think? Just last week Verizon announced they will have 4G LTE coverage to 1/3rd of Americans this year and double that next year.
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post #9 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktappe View Post

Apple is losing customers DAILY by not having the iPhone on Verizon. WTF is the barricade to doing this? If customers are silly enough to take a technological step backwards, buying a slower non-international version of the iPhone, then let them. Shake your head all the way to the bank, Steve.

From a business point of view, it comes down to a guesstimate of how many additional iPhones Verizon will need to deliver to Apple to offset the lost subsidy from AT&T.

Estimates for the current subsidy range from $300 to over $400 per iPhone.

If the subsidy drops 33%, then the total number of iPhones sold will need to increase 50% to bring the same amount of profit to Apple. If it drops 50%, the the total sold needs to double.

Not saying that it cannot happen, just noting the numbers involved.
post #10 of 62
I believe that there will have to be some CDMA compatibility on an Verizon iPhone since there may be some areas that may not receive LTE reception. I may move to Verizon if they offer a noticeable cost savings monthly and I can talk and use data at the same time using LTE.
post #11 of 62
I hate reading conflicting articles. Yes, Verizon iPhone. No, Verizon iPhone. As a Verizon customer I'm frustrated they won't offer me the phone I want. I'll stay with Verizon if they launch a new iPhone this summer, otherwise I'm jumping ship to AT&T when my contract is up is September. Yes, I've let Verizon know this will happen - I think they are fine with having less customers.
post #12 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil Sukalewski View Post

From a business point of view, it comes down to a guesstimate of how many additional iPhones Verizon will need to deliver to Apple to offset the lost subsidy from AT&T.

In countries where the iPhone went multi-carrier it did not result in a drop in prices or a reduction in subsidies for Apple.

---

The latest AdMob statistics were released yesterday. In the US, Android is growing fast and has nearly caught up to the iPhone (engaget). Apple needs to go multi-carrier.
post #13 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by noexpectations View Post

These rumors are rumors. They are created and propagated by people who want to manipulate and benefit from the short term affect on the stock prices.

Isn't that the whole purpose of this website? To get advance notice of an upcoming product so you can buy the stock and make a quick profit?
post #14 of 62
The Wall Street Journal isn't just some rumor site.

But if they are wrong it could seriously damage their credibility.
post #15 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

... In his latest note to investors issued on Tuesday, analyst Maynard J. Um with UBS Investment Research ...

... said a lot of absolutely ridiculous things.

None of this makes any sense or is even slightly likely IMO. Not only that, every rumour he mentions here is recycled. Touch panel on the back? Entry-level model? CDMA iPhone? All of the things Um mentions have been brought up several times before and thoroughly discounted by many.

This guy is a complete idiot.

I'm only surprised he didn't float the "iPhone nano" idea again.
post #16 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil Sukalewski View Post

Estimates for the current subsidy range from $300 to over $400 per iPhone.

If the subsidy drops 33%, then the total number of iPhones sold will need to increase 50% to bring the same amount of profit to Apple. If it drops 50%, the the total sold needs to double.

I dont think the math quite works there.
post #17 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by markb View Post

I dont think the math quite works there.

Here's the math:

# of iPhones Sold] x Subsidy Amount per iPhone = Total Subsidy Dollars

10,000,000 x $300 = $3,000,000,000

If the subsidy drops 33% to $200 then to still get $3,000,000,000 of subsidy dollars, divide the $3,000,000,000 by $200 = 15,000,000 iPhones (a 50% increase in the quantity sold - and this is just to stay even in total subsidy dollars.
post #18 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orlando View Post

In countries where the iPhone went multi-carrier it did not result in a drop in prices or a reduction in subsidies for Apple.

---

The latest AdMob statistics were released yesterday. In the US, Android is growing fast and has nearly caught up to the iPhone (engaget). Apple needs to go multi-carrier.

Does anyone really think that AT&T will pay Apple the same subsidy per phone if they no longer have their exclusive?
post #19 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aizmov View Post

If I were Steve Jobs a Verizon iPhone is the last thing I'll ever do.

I want to see Ivan Seidenberg running naked in the middle of Time Square with the phrase "I'm Apple's bitch" tattooed on his ass before considering a Verizon iPhone.

Never forget! Verizon laughed off the iPhone and then attacked it in a series of ads.

You should be in video marketing, great image you conjured there
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post #20 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil Sukalewski View Post

From a business point of view, it comes down to a guesstimate of how many additional iPhones Verizon will need to deliver to Apple to offset the lost subsidy from AT&T.

Estimates for the current subsidy range from $300 to over $400 per iPhone.

If the subsidy drops 33%, then the total number of iPhones sold will need to increase 50% to bring the same amount of profit to Apple. If it drops 50%, the the total sold needs to double.

Not saying that it cannot happen, just noting the numbers involved.

Apple has said outright on a earnings conference call that in countries where there are multiple iPhone carriers, they don't get a lower ASP for the iPhone. So I wouldn't be that quick to say that the subsidy from AT&T or Verizon drops.
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post #21 of 62
I don't think there will be a CDMA iPhone. I think Apple will wait until LTE is out to release it on other companies. I hope that they do release it in T-Mobile. That make more sense at this point. Why invest in CDMA when LTE is around the corner?
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post #22 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil Sukalewski View Post

Does anyone really think that AT&T will pay Apple the same subsidy per phone if they no longer have their exclusive?

As far as one can tell by the steady ASP of iPhones and by the words of Cook and Oppenheimer, carriers in other countries (where there are multiple carriers) still are.

Apple iPhone commands a higher ASP than other smartphones in the US because Apple, not the carrier, provides marketing, retail distribution, customer and warranty service and repair for iPhone. This is not the same for other vendors. For example, in the area of distribution, Palm sells to Sprint who sells and distributes to other retailers. Apple handles this directly.

Plus Apple Stores are a retailer for the AT&T, thus, collecting fees for new activations, in the same way that Radio Shack or Best Buy or Amazon.com does. These fees may be taken account in the ASP (or they could be an offset in SGA?).
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post #23 of 62
That would be a QUADRUPLING of resolution, not a doubling, wouldn't it? At least a quadrupling of pixels, though I guess resolution is named like 480, 720, 1080, not based on overall pixel count.
post #24 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aizmov View Post


Never forget! Verizon laughed off the iPhone and then attacked it in a series of ads.

I will NEVER forget that.

Verizon is dead to me.
post #25 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luiso View Post

I don't think there will be a CDMA iPhone. I think Apple will wait until LTE is out to release it on other companies. I hope that they do release it in T-Mobile. That make more sense at this point. Why invest in CDMA when LTE is around the corner?

Even if there is an LTE phone that let's say spottily covers half the US by the end of 2010, it will need a network to fall back on when not in LTE coverage. For Verizon, that will be CDMA. And it will need the ability to fall back for a long time after 2010.

3G began implementation over 6 years ago. And today, none of the US carriers can claim 100% coverage. Do you really think LTE coverage will happen faster than that? Or that Apple would wait that long to introduce an LTE phone for Verizon (with no fall back)?

Finally, would Apple want to take the risk of introducing a phone that has both a brand new first-time ever (for Apple) LTE implementation and a brand new first-time ever (for Apple) CDMA implementation? Or would they rather take it in steps?
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post #26 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil Sukalewski View Post

Does anyone really think that AT&T will pay Apple the same subsidy per phone if they no longer have their exclusive?

I do. They may subsidize the purchase of the phone but they make it back plus more on the data plans.

Have you noticed that BB phones are subsidized on all the carriers?
post #27 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdkennedy1 View Post

The Wall Street Journal isn't just some rumor site.

But if they are wrong it could seriously damage their credibility.

Too late I'd say..

WSJ also reported that the iPad would have a "facial recognition front-facing camera" and that it would be $1000
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post #28 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnlyShawn View Post

That would be a QUADRUPLING of resolution, not a doubling, wouldn't it? At least a quadrupling of pixels, though I guess resolution is named like 480, 720, 1080, not based on overall pixel count.

It's stated in an ambiguous way, but their statement is referring to a single axis.
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post #29 of 62
There has been tons of rumors forever where people and pundits speculate about the possibility of an iPhone coming to Verizon, and other carriers in the US. And this leads me to ask a possibly stupid question.

I recall watching the SteveNote in January 2007 announcing the upcoming iPhone, and that it would be an exclusive 5 year agreement with AT&T. Perhaps I am naive or uneducated in legal matters, but if this is in fact true, then wouldn't it be impossible for Apple to release an iPhone to any other carriers until June 2012 when this 5 year period would be ending?

What am I missing here?
post #30 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luiso View Post

I don't think there will be a CDMA iPhone. I think Apple will wait until LTE is out to release it on other companies. I hope that they do release it in T-Mobile. That make more sense at this point. Why invest in CDMA when LTE is around the corner?

There is no LTE Voice standard, only data. And Verizon's LTE network won't be nationwide until 2013. Actually, even my first point doesn't matter, since a Verizon iPhone will need a fallback if their LTE network is available. And that's going to have to be CDMA.

Plus, let's keep in mind that this shouldn't be new information to Apple. Any comments about how "CDMA is a dead technology" is simply gesturing with Verizon for a better deal. Those comments are just like how Jobs once said "who wants to watch video on an iPod" only months before revealing the iPod 5G with video. CEOs are NOT going to reveal their plans to the public, and certainly not Steve Jobs. You should rarely take what he says at face value and look at the facts instead.

Any talk of a LTE-only phone without CDMA supporting Verizon is fallacy. If you believe that, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
post #31 of 62
Trust me. iPhone on Verizon is happening. In fact, sooner than expected. The tail has wagged the dog, and there's no turning back. Given the market reaction on both stocks today, the CEOs have no choice.
post #32 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleRulez View Post

I will NEVER forget that.

Verizon is dead to me.

In business, there are no friends or enemies. Only alliances made and broken.
post #33 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktappe View Post

Apple is losing customers DAILY by not having the iPhone on Verizon. WTF is the barricade to doing this? If customers are silly enough to take a technological step backwards, buying a slower non-international version of the iPhone, then let them. Shake your head all the way to the bank, Steve.

Agreed. People don't realize how many consumers won't realize or care that their phone won't work most places outside the US anyway. Most people know nothing - or at best next to nothing - about the underlying technology of their phone. All they want to know is if it works on Verizon or not.
post #34 of 62
Apple's stock is at 235.865!
post #35 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Um said checks with industry sources indicate the next-generation model could feature a touch panel on the back of the phone

Easiest way to detect when an "Analyst" is talking out their backside - the usability for such a "feature" would be a nightmare. Are they sure they weren't talking to an Android or Windows phone mobile system 7 (whatever!) hardware developer instead of about the iPhone?
post #36 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktappe View Post

Apple is losing customers DAILY by not having the iPhone on Verizon. WTF is the barricade to doing this? If customers are silly enough to take a technological step backwards, buying a slower non-international version of the iPhone, then let them. Shake your head all the way to the bank, Steve.

They're doing just fine without Verizon. iPhone envy is building to a head for many, many Verizon customers, and they'll probably have to wait til summer 2011, LTE iPhone 4G. They've waited this long, they can switch to AT&T, or wait a little longer.
post #37 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktappe View Post

Apple is losing customers DAILY

Verizon is loosing more. AT&T (2.7 million) once again bested Verizon (2.2 million) in new subscriber adds in the 4Q - what is that, three quarters in a row? Four - a whole year? Not even the Droid could help them overtake the soon-to-be refreshed iPhone.

http://www.phonearena.com/htmls/Moto...e-a_10039.html

Who needs who more badly now? There's no AllTell hail-mary for Verizon to prop themselves up with this time (unless they go after Sprint - which would probably draw anti-trust ire).
post #38 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by wprowe View Post

is it possible that a Verizon iPhone for LTE could be coming sooner than we think? Just last week Verizon announced they will have 4G LTE coverage to 1/3rd of Americans this year and double that next year.

I can't wait for the "there's a map for that" ads for this!
post #39 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by DJinTX View Post

There has been tons of rumors forever where people and pundits speculate about the possibility of an iPhone coming to Verizon, and other carriers in the US. And this leads me to ask a possibly stupid question.

I recall watching the SteveNote in January 2007 announcing the upcoming iPhone, and that it would be an exclusive 5 year agreement with AT&T. Perhaps I am naive or uneducated in legal matters, but if this is in fact true, then wouldn't it be impossible for Apple to release an iPhone to any other carriers until June 2012 when this 5 year period would be ending?

What am I missing here?

Steve never said it was five years. Both he and Randall Stephenson said it was a multi-year exclusive.

USAToday reported that it was for five years with no official source, but a year later in 2008, said that it had been renegotiated into a 3-year deal ending in 2010. It claimed the renegotiation was precipitated by Apple changing from an unsubsidized phone but data plan revenue sharing arrangement to a subsidized phone with no revenue sharing arrangement.
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post #40 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by DJinTX View Post

wouldn't it be impossible for Apple to release an iPhone to any other carriers until June 2012 when this 5 year period would be ending?

What am I missing here?

Nothing.

You are on a rumors site after all and Apple is Doomed unless they capitulate to Verizon
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