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Apple iPad sales predicted to reach 7M in 2010, 20.1M by 2012

post #1 of 60
Thread Starter 
A new forecast of iPad sales predicts Apple will sell 7 million units in 2010 -- a number higher than most expect on Wall Street -- with sales doubling in 2011 and nearly tripling by 2012.

Research firm iSuppli on Friday issued its expectations for the iPad, calling for 14.4 million sales in 2011 and 20.1 million in 2012. The analysis said that 2010 sales will be driven by early adopters and others who are attracted to the device's unique touch-screen user interface. But by 2011 and 2012, mass-market adoption will begin based on the number of applications available on the App Store, improved functionality, and declining prices.

The firm also noted that it considers its forecast to be "conservative," as the company believes Apple could quickly boost sales by adding features or adding support for Adobe Flash, the latter of which is highly unlikely, as detailed in AppleInsider's three-part Flash Wars series.. But with or without Flash, sales will still come, iSuppli said, thanks in large part to Apple's patented multi-touch interface.

"Touch is the new standard for user interfaces, providing a naturally intuitive way of operating an electronic device, whether you are two or 92," said Rhoda Alexander, director of monitor research for iSuppli. "The tablet form factor is ideally suited to touch. The iPad represents an intriguing mix of two devices that have struggled to gain traction for years: Internet appliances and tablet PCs.

"In a sharp departure from past tablet implementations, it appears that Apple has both minimized and maximized the capabilities of the devices, limiting it as a creation device but compensating for this shortcoming by offering a wealth of easily consumable applications. The devices initial limitations are likely to be overlooked if Apple provides enough content to keep users engaged within the product limitations."

iSuppli said the iPad is a "huge gamble" for Apple, as some believe the darling of the tech industry may have "finally overplayed its hand." Here, again, the primary criticism from the firm is the lack of support for Adobe Flash.

"Apple has a track record of defying great odds and successfully navigating previously uncharted waters, such as it did with the iPhone," the report said. "With initial orders falling in line with expectations, Apple is likely to stick with its strategy of not using Flash unless there is a notable impact on sales."

Source: iSuppli Corp. April 2010

The numbers from iSuppli skew higher than most on Wall Street, who expect the iPad to sell between a million and 5 million in its first year. Analyst Gene Munster this week said he believes the device will sell 900,000 in the June 2010 quarter and 2.7 million in calendar year 2010, though like iSuppli, he said his numbers could be conservative.

As for Flash, its exclusion from the iPad and subsequent comments attributed to Apple co-founder Steve Jobs, in which he allegedly called the Web standard a "CPU hog," have led to a considerable amount of debate over its merits and shortcomings. On Thursday, Apple went as far as to highlight iPad-ready, Flash-free Web sites that have embraced HTML5 for streaming video.

HTML5 is an in-progress standard that Apple has backed as the company has shunned Flash by not allowing it on iPhone OS devices, including the iPhone, iPod touch and iPad.

Although Jobs reportedly said he believes it is "trivial" for Web developers to switch from Flash, some employees of leading publishers recently said they believe such a move wouldn't be so simple. But some major Web sights have still sought to have compatibility with Apple's mobile devices, and last month it was revealed that National Public Radio and The Wall Street Journal were creating specific versions of their Web sites completely devoid of Flash for iPad users. Virgin America, too, dropped Flash content from its Web site in order to allow users of iPhones to check in for flights.

In addition, Brightcove announced it has contracted with Time and The New York Times to allow HTML5 to seamlessly replace Flash video content on the publications' Web sites. The new platform provides support for intelligent device detection, playlist rendering, and playback of H.264 encoded content. Also, U.S. TV network CBS will offer HTML5 video playback for its streaming episodes when the device launches.
post #2 of 60
10 million units by 12/31/2010

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post #3 of 60
Around the 7M mark in 2010 makes sense. I think it's impossibly to predict with any degree of certainty though.

It could as easily be 6M as it is 12M by January '11.
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post #4 of 60
Did they make that graph in Office '95?
post #5 of 60
My prediction: 11,999,999 but 3 million backordered. Why the '999'?, well

as I posted previously, there is now competition, i.e., the JooJoo
Quote:
Has arrived? Well sort of.

JooJoo Tablet Hands On Video http://www.geeky-gadgets.com/joojoo-...eo-02-04-2010/

Will sell? Well sort of.


post #6 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abster2core;

My prediction: 11,999,999 but 3 million backordered. Why the '999'?, well

as I posted previously, there is now competition, i.e., the JooJoo

The JooJoo is a big pile of fail, apparently. Firstly becuae it plain sucks. Second, it only got around 90 preorders, and I believe some of those have been returned already.
post #7 of 60
Who writes this?

"But some major Web sights..." it should be "But some major Web sites..."
post #8 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wonder View Post

Who writes this?

"But some major Web sights..." it should be "But some major Web sites..."

Or... major web cites

my favorite typos are:

maimframe computer

and

wharehouse


*
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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post #9 of 60
Quote:
A new forecast of iPad sales predicts Apple will sell 7 million units in 2010 -- a number higher than most expect on Wall Street -- with sales doubling in 2011 and nearly tripling by 2012.


Wow, forecasts coming out of people's arses more like it.

The iPad depends upon a computer, it's not a standalone device AND it's expensive. It's also got a lot of functionality, but not a lot of storage, the same problem plaguing the iPod Touch.

The hype may be high, but people buy on price and value. The higher the price and the less value, the less buyers.

PC users see little value in the iPad, they can get a whole laptop for the same price. They also see the iPads limited storage as a hassle, they know over time data grows and will fill the iPad, meaning they would have to work to regulate the data. They rather have a large storage and not worry about it.

That leaves the principal market mostly current Mac owners, who need a second device, but likely already have one for themselves but need one for their kids. Slims down the market quite a bit.

The iPad is going to severely cannibalize sales from both the iPod Touch (which hasn't done as well as the iPod Classic because of it's low storage) and the MacBook markets, so is it really a "increase" of Apple computer market share or more like a replacement of current markets when people are ready to replace their devices with new ones?

Apple has cut down their MacBook models to just one for the last year, purposely building up demand for the iPad it intends to replace it with.

The data at this link is very informative and goes to show that the more expensive a "accessory device" is the less it's adopted by both all computers users and specifically Mac users.

http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_091005.html
post #10 of 60
Once they get round to producing enough I'm sure sales will be great. Following their 2nd revision, I can see sales really taking off. This has the potential to outdo the iPhone, an expensive phone vs a cheap computer (in the traditional sense). It's a cheaper way of switching, and people are more familiar with iPhones than Macs these days.
post #11 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Wow, forecasts coming out of people's arses more like it.

The iPad depends upon a computer, it's not a standalone device AND it's expensive.

The data at this link is very informative and goes to show that the more expensive a "accessory device" is the less it's adopted by both PC users and Mac users.

http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_091005.html

The data in the link does not support your assumptions.

Here are some things to consider:

-- millions of households have at least 1 computer

-- an iPhone requires a computer (more so, than an iPad).

-- millions of iPhones have been sold

-- an iPad is not an accessory

-- an iPad can aquire apps and content directly with the device (no computer connection needed)

-- you can synch backup iPad data directly to/from the cloud

*
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
Reply
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
Reply
post #12 of 60
I'm certainly not one of those that thinks apple will fall apart when Jobs is no longer there, but having the guts to shun flash is definitely a uniquely Jobsian trait that will probably leave Apple when he does. To stand up and say "flash sucks, we're not supporting it, and if you want to be on the iPad you won't use it" is not the kind of thing that most risk-averse bean counting CEOs would do. For better or for worse, the dude just isn't going to do what he doesn't want to do.
post #13 of 60
"The iPad depends upon a computer, it's not a standalone device AND it's expensive"

Sheesh, get over it. My iPhone "depends upon a computer" so every now and then I plug it in, such as when I know there is an OS update. The rest of the time it happily goes along and does everything without even knowing there is a computer around. It is a standalone device you idiot! The only time you need a computer is to upgrade the OS; now and then maybe to do a backup. You are feebly attempting to spread the FUD that the iPad won't work unless attached to a computer. Idiot.
post #14 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wonder View Post

Who writes this?

"But some major Web sights..." it should be "But some major Web sites..."

Yeah, AI is like TiPb: no matter how many gadgets these bloggers pile up on their desks, they seldom care to read (and revise) what they write on them.
post #15 of 60
Bottom line is there's a lot of people in the world who don't do more than the iPad can do on their computer - so for them the iPad is a faster, lighter, easier-to-use "computer". At $499, a given the market I'd say 7M sounds right. Though, like I say it's a hard one to predict, and could go anywhere really. If I had to give a number I'd say somewhere between 5 and 12 million.

7M sound like a good guesstimate.
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post #16 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

That leaves the principal market mostly current Mac owners, who need a second device, but likely already have one for themselves but need one for their kids. Slims down the market quite a bit.

Actually, it works with both Mac and PC users/computers. Just like the iPhone and all iPods. So the market for the iPad is not only for Mac users.
post #17 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

The JooJoo is a big pile of fail, apparently. Firstly becuae it plain sucks. Second, it only got around 90 preorders, and I believe some of those have been returned already.

Third, it uses a trendy aspect ratio. Fourth, it let's it's processor get all hogged trying to play flash.
post #18 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by RicMac View Post

"The iPad depends upon a computer, it's not a standalone device AND it's expensive"

Sheesh, get over it. My iPhone "depends upon a computer" so every now and then I plug it in, such as when I know there is an OS update. The rest of the time it happily goes along and does everything without even knowing there is a computer around. It is a standalone device you idiot! The only time you need a computer is to upgrade the OS; now and then maybe to do a backup. You are feebly attempting to spread the FUD that the iPad won't work unless attached to a computer. Idiot.

Even if you think he's an idiot, and he may well be - don't call him it. I use the word sometime myself, but it's best to refrain from biting on the line.
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post #19 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by RicMac View Post

"The iPad depends upon a computer, it's not a standalone device AND it's expensive"

Sheesh, get over it. My iPhone "depends upon a computer" so every now and then I plug it in, such as when I know there is an OS update. The rest of the time it happily goes along and does everything without even knowing there is a computer around. It is a standalone device you idiot! The only time you need a computer is to upgrade the OS; now and then maybe to do a backup. You are feebly attempting to spread the FUD that the iPad won't work unless attached to a computer. Idiot.

Yeah, I guess the OP would claim that a desktop computer, TV, or stereo is not a "standalone device" because each needs to be connected to an electrical outlet...

... and that Ferrari in his driveway... even that needs to be connected to a gas pump, now and then!

*
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post #20 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Yeah, I guess the OP would claim that a desktop computer, TV, or stereo is not a "standalone device" because each needs to be connected to an electrical outlet...

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You need access to a traditional computer to do certain things: Adding digital content you already own, and updating the O.S. If you don't have access to a traditional computer chances are you won't own any digital content, so the only thing you won't be able to do is update the O.S. If you're the kind of person who doesn't have a computer you won't know what an O.S. is.

If you look at the device the way it's intended to be used however, then it's not completely standalone. However you try to spin it.
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post #21 of 60
The revenue will be spectacularly high particularly as there is no price drop in sight as the demand will always exceed the units. Way to go Apple!!
post #22 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

You need access to a traditional computer to do certain things: Adding digital content you already own, and updating the O.S.

It's a standalone computer as long as you don't need to put music and update the software. In itself it's standalone, it just isn't if you want to do both those things. So if you're an old person with no digital music or not a large CD collection and don't need to have the very latest software it for you is completely standalone. I just wonder how many people there are out there like this.

Yes, I agree. But in normal use, it would operate as a standalone device... just the way an iPhone does.

A good example of potential use of the iPad is a hospital or university campus, with possibly thousands of iPads running. primarily, standalone from any physical connection to a computer

And, we are very early in the evolution of this device and its infrastructure. It's not too difficult to envision the day when you could completly eliminate the need for a direct computer connection for normal use.

Just go to the nearest Hot Spot and setup/download/synch/backup/install system software, firmware, apps, content, private files, etc. from the cloud (including iTunes).

The only time you would need to directly connect the device to a computer (or take it to the shop) is if it is malfunctioning.

OTH, if a computer is handy, you can direct connect to it and do all of the above more efficiently (because the computer constantly maintains synch with the cloud)

*
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
Reply
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
Reply
post #23 of 60
Have any real world performance tests been done that show a device using HTML5 has a significantly lower CPU overhead than one using Flash?
post #24 of 60
7M will be a huge success for Apple. How many other tablets sold up-to-date?

But I think 4 M for first year is a realistic target. If it has a good webcam & native software associated with it I could see 7 M easily.
post #25 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post


PC users see little value in the iPad, they can get a whole laptop for the same price. They also see the iPads limited storage as a hassle, they know over time data grows and will fill the iPad, meaning they would have to work to regulate the data. They rather have a large storage and not worry about it.

I don't know why you think all PC users are that dumb. They know the difference between iPad and net/notebook. I say people who are happy with their iPhones are potential buyers for iPad. Computer they use is irrelevant.
post #26 of 60
Munster is way off - if you estimate pre-sales - that'd top 900,000.

10 million in 12 months. Guaranteed, guaranteed.
post #27 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

The data in the link does not support your assumptions.

Here are some things to consider:

-- millions of households have at least 1 computer

-- an iPhone requires a computer (more so, than an iPad).

-- millions of iPhones have been sold

-- an iPad is not an accessory

-- an iPad can aquire apps and content directly with the device (no computer connection needed)

-- you can synch backup iPad data directly to/from the cloud

*

Also: lots of people buy or have bought a netbook.
lots of people think a netbook suits their needs perfectly
lots of people will like how the iPad compares to an average netbook in terms of: form factor, price, screen estate, weight, build quality, resistance, battery life, applications (many more available on the app store than for the average netbook), movies, books.


Just to add my two cents.

of course the iPad has its trade-offs in certain areas. Hey, nobody's perfect
post #28 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by t0mat0 View Post

Munster is way off - if you estimate pre-sales - that'd top 900,000.

10 million in 12 months. Guaranteed, guaranteed.

Where's the guarantee?
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post #29 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by iMat View Post

Also: lots of people buy or have bought a netbook.
lots of people think a netbook suits their needs perfectly.

I'd say even more bought a netbook only to realize how slow, cramped and clunky it was. It's easy to say someone who thinks this way is merely agreeing with Jobs, but he's actually right. I've used several of them and wondered what all the fuss was about.

One word comes to mind with regards netbooks: slow.
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post #30 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

Where's the guarantee?

Or your money cheerfully refunded!
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #31 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

Around the 7M mark in 2010 makes sense. I think it's impossibly to predict with any degree of certainty though.

It could as easily be 6M as it is 12M by January '11.

i have to scoff at all predictions at this point. because they are based on nothing.

now give me the opening to opening numbers and then two weeks out from the 3g release when things are dying down a bit and use that to estimate, if sales continue at that pace, the total number sold and you've got a decent number.
post #32 of 60
I think Apple in a short time has gone a good ways towards killing flash on big websites.

Next someone need to work on all the damn canned restaurant websites. Its like the same guy made evry restaurants website and it uses flash out the wazoo.
post #33 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post

I don't know why you think all PC users are that dumb. They know the difference between iPad and net/notebook. I say people who are happy with their iPhones are potential buyers for iPad. Computer they use is irrelevant.

He doesn't think PC users are that dumb. He thinks YOU are that dumb. He's already decided that you can't think for yourself, where "think for yourself" is a thinly veiled codephrase for "agree with SpotOn", so he's taken it upon himself to "help you out" by insisting that he be allowed to do your thinking for you. Hence, his incessant yapping on AppleInsider where he continually posts the same, lame attacks upon the iPad, the company that produces it, and anyone foolish enough to be caught admitting that they have already ordered one. You see, SpotOn is so incredibly intelligent that he knows what the iPad can and can't do because he designed it - all by himself, over the course of a single weekend in Poughkeepsie (don't ask) - as a part of a secret mission to save Apple from Steve Jobs' monumental incompetence. We all think the iPad-hating is just a lack of imagination on his part, but SpotOn is really trying to UNDO his own terrible mistake - you see, SpotOn can also read the future (see his predictions about iPad sales) and knows that the real problem with iPad is that it's TOO good, and that within five years a network of iPads and cheap city-wide wireless access will create a self-aware networked entity, not unlike SkyNet but instead of destroying humanity it has the goal of wiping out all non-Apple users, and the sad part of THAT is that the next-to-last victim of this iNet would otherwise have discovered a way to make Windows NOT suck. In 2054 AD. When there was finally enough processing power available on a single chip to run both Windows and the required anti-virus software AT THE SAME TIME.

I would have posted this yesterday, but I was afraid that some people might think it was an April Fools' jape essayed at the expense of another AI reader.
post #34 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abster2core View Post

as I posted previously, there is now competition, i.e., the JooJoo

I think Trapper Keeper is more competition than JooJoo at this point. JooJoo is doing the Browser-based OS running on a Linux kernel thang but the execution is faulty.

I like aspects of their homescreen better, but that is about it at this point. Issues I've seen, so far, are:
  • A small keyboard oddly placed on display
  • Slow response time between touchscreen inputs (though faster than expected, to be honest)
  • Widescreen display that only makes it good for video but nothing that includes reading
  • An unintuitive two-finger scroll of webpages instead of one (THIS IS REALLY STUPID!!!)
  • High price for the low NAND capacity
  • Low battery life
  • Neat spec sheet performance that translates into shitty actual performance (eg: they claim 1080p but you can't even play HD Flash video without it being choppy)
  • No SDK or app store

Did I miss any pros or cons?
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post #35 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Yes, I agree. But in normal use, it would operate as a standalone device... just the way an iPhone does.

A good example of potential use of the iPad is a hospital or university campus, with possibly thousands of iPads running. primarily, standalone from any physical connection to a computer

And, we are very early in the evolution of this device and its infrastructure. It's not too difficult to envision the day when you could completly eliminate the need for a direct computer connection for normal use.

Just go to the nearest Hot Spot and setup/download/synch/backup/install system software, firmware, apps, content, private files, etc. from the cloud (including iTunes).

The only time you would need to directly connect the device to a computer (or take it to the shop) is if it is malfunctioning.

OTH, if a computer is handy, you can direct connect to it and do all of the above more efficiently (because the computer constantly maintains synch with the cloud)

*

Not really.

As Apple tables,
Quote:
Mac system requirements
  • Mac computer with USB 2.0 port
  • Mac OS X v10.5.8 or later
  • iTunes 9.0 or later (free download from www.itunes.com/download)
  • iTunes Store account
  • Internet access
Windows system requirements
  • PC with USB 2.0 port
  • Windows 7; Windows Vista; or Windows XP Home or Professional with Service Pack 3 or later
  • iTunes 9.0 or later (free download from www.itunes.com/download)
  • iTunes Store account
  • Internet access


Why? Because they are all needed to backup, restore and secure everything that you put, create or store on your iPad more efficiently, faster and safer.

I would personally discourage anyone to open/setup their iTunes Store account on any other computer that somebody else controls.
post #36 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by RCO3 View Post


...In 2054 AD. When there was finally enough processing power available on a single chip to run both Windows and the required anti-virus software AT THE SAME TIME.

JeJeJe...

This would require hardware implementation of the long-anticipated "IF Gate". The "IF Gate" emits an impulse 1 yoctosecond before it receives a triggering impulse. The virus will be detected and zapped before it appears!

*
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post #37 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I think Trapper Keeper is more competition than JooJoo at this point. JooJoo is doing the Browser-based OS running on a Linux kernel thang but the execution isn't faulty. I like aspects of their homescreen better, but that is about it. Issues I've seen are a small keyboard, slow response time (though faster than expected), widescreen display that only makes it good for video but nothing that includes reading, an unintuitive two-finger scroll of webpages instead of one, high price for the NAND capacity, low battery life, great spec sheet performance that translates into shitty actual performance (eg: they claim 1080p but you can't even play HD Flash video without it being choppy), and no SDK or app store, to name just a few off the drawbacks that caught my eye.

I hope you realize that my prediction for iPads at the end of the year was 11,999,999 and not 12 million. The difference was the one sale for JooJoo.
post #38 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abster2core View Post

Not really.

As Apple tables,Why? Because they are all needed to backup, restore and secure everything that you put, create or store on your iPad more efficiently, faster and safer.

I would personally discourage anyone to open/setup their iTunes Store account on any other computer that somebody else controls.

I did state:

And, we are very early in the evolution of this device and its infrastructure. It's not too difficult to envision the day when you could completly eliminate the need for a direct computer connection for normal use.

Knowing Apple, (since 1978), I suspect they have a solution well-along in development!

*
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
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post #39 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I think Trapper Keeper is more competition than JooJoo at this point. JooJoo is doing the Browser-based OS running on a Linux kernel thang but the execution isn't faulty. I like aspects of their homescreen better, but that is about it. Issues I've seen are a small keyboard, slow response time (though faster than expected), widescreen display that only makes it good for video but nothing that includes reading, an unintuitive two-finger scroll of webpages instead of one, high price for the NAND capacity, low battery life, great spec sheet performance that translates into shitty actual performance (eg: they claim 1080p but you can't even play HD Flash video without it being choppy), and no SDK or app store, to name just a few off the drawbacks that caught my eye.

I can't remember at which tech site I saw the article pretty much laying out what you're saying, complete with video, but, amazingly (or perhaps inevitably) the comments were full of posters yelling "OMG awesome so much better than the MaxiPad why would anyone buy that pile of fail so beautiful it will be mine!"

Which is why I generally have stopped reading the comments at tech sites.
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post #40 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

The data in the link does not support your assumptions.

The iPod has a mixed range of prices from about $60 to $250 at 36% adoption rate for all computer users.

The iPod Touch is more, $200 to $400 price range, and has a 9% adoption rate for all computer users.

In the chart the iPod Touch as less adoption percentage for two reasons, it's low storage and it's high price. That's why it morphed into a portable gaming device instead of a content consumption device.

The higher the price, the lower the storage, the less the adoption is.

The iPad is just a larger and more expensive iPod Touch.


Quote:
-- an iPad is not an accessory

A iPad is a accessory to the functions done on a regular computer because it needs a computer. If it was a tablet computer, then it would be it's own standalone device. Since the iPad is NOT a tablet computer, it's a accessory device with extra unique features, just like the iPod or the iPhone.


From Apple:

Quote:
Mac system requirements

* Mac computer with USB 2.0 port
* Mac OS X v10.5.8 or later
* iTunes 9.0 or later (free download from www.itunes.com/download)
* iTunes Store account
* Internet access

Windows system requirements

* PC with USB 2.0 port
* Windows 7; Windows Vista; or Windows XP Home or Professional with Service Pack 3 or later
* iTunes 9.0 or later (free download from www.itunes.com/download)
* iTunes Store account
* Internet access


Therefore, if the iPad needs a computer operate, it limits it's sales to those who already have a computer or to people that can manage the iPad for them.

Apple is shifting it's MacBook market segment into more expensive MacBook Pro's with the introduction of the computer dependent iPad. This will cause the MacBook market (who need a less costly and fully independent machine) to shift to PC laptops or netbooks instead.

Microsoft danced a jig when Apple announced the iPad specs and it's prices because Apple really didn't offer a competitive alternative to $300+ netbooks and $500+ PC laptops.

iPad: $1000+ Mac or $600+ PC + $500+ iPad + accessories = $1100+

MacBook: $1000

MacBook Pro: $1200+

Windows 7 laptop: $500+


If the iPad was it's own device, not needing a computer, then this is the competitive situation:

iPad (device independent): $500+

Windows 7 laptop: $500+


This would be a much more serious situation for Microsoft and PC vendors. People would ask "PC laptop or iPad?"

Apple tied the iPad to a computer in the hopes getting PC users to scale up to a Mac. A iPad "halo effect" just like the iPod and the iPhone "halo effect". In doing so their sales of the iPad won't be as great as if they made the device independent, Apple is also alienating the lower end MacBook market segment just a bit by giving them only one model to chose from.
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AppleInsider › Forums › Mac Hardware › Current Mac Hardware › Apple iPad sales predicted to reach 7M in 2010, 20.1M by 2012