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Growth in netbook sales slows in anticipation of Apple's iPad

post #1 of 99
Thread Starter 
As the launch of Apple's iPad looms, a new report alleges that HP and Dell have cut back production of low-cost, low-power netbooks after the market saw relatively slow growth in the first quarter of 2010.

This week, Taiwanese industry publication DigiTimes reported that major netbook makers have had second thoughts about the booming low-cost market, which offers minimal profits to hardware vendors.

"Hewlett-Packard (HP) and Dell have both significantly reduced their investments in the 10-inch netbook segment, with HP reportedly even considering quitting the 10-inch netbook market and turning its focus to AMD-based 11.6-inch notebooks because profits from Intel Pine Trail-based netbooks have been lower than expected, according to sources from notebook makers," the report said.

It added that a majority of second-tier netbook vendors have quit the market after the top brands began cutting their prices in the second half of 2009. Acer, Asustek, and Samsung, however, remain active in the market.

In addition, according BusinessWeek, market research firm IDC has revealed new sales data that showed netbook shipments to retailers from January through March 2010 grew 33.6 year-over-year, to 4.8 million units. While that is still an increase, it pales in comparison to the first quarter of 2009, when netbook sales jumped 872 percent to 3.6 million units.

The report noted that the iPad, set to launch on Saturday, may have played a part in slower sales growth for netbooks at the start of 2010. Apple has positioned its device as a counter to both the netbook market and dedicated e-readers like the Amazon Kindle.

When the iPad was first unveiled in January, Apple co-founder Steve Jobs directly compared it to existing netbooks on the market, noting that he felt the new product was lighter and more useful than low-cost netbooks, which he said are just "cheap laptops." With a 9.7-inch display and weighing just 1.5 pounds, the keyboard-less, touchscreen iPad is a much different form factor from the traditional laptop.

One recent survey found that most who plan to purchase an iPad intend to use it for work on the go. The poll of 770 smartphone owners found that more than half said the iPad, or a similar tablet, would serve as a netbook replacement.

Another study found that most consumers who plan to buy an iPad will rely on it for a variety of functions, suggesting it will serve as more of a netbook than an e-reader. The ChangeWave Survey found that 68 percent of respondents said they would surf the Internet with the iPad, 44 percent would check e-mail, and 37 percent are interested in reading e-books.

In addition, analysts on Wall Street believe that the introduction of the iPad will have the greatest impact on netbook purchases, thanks mostly to its starting price of $499.
post #2 of 99
It's already happening. The junkbook market is already taking casualties. This was predicted months ago.
post #3 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

It's already happening. The junkbook market I'd already taking casualties. This was predicted months ago.

Soon anyone who ever tried to bring a product of any kind to anyone will vanish, and Apple will be the only company left.

If God needed a computer, he would use an iPad!

ALL HAIL APPLE!
post #4 of 99
On the bright side, this should improve their margins.

post #5 of 99
I mean, this was foreseen and all, but so soon? Really quite amazing.

I wonder what these companies will turn to to salvage their losses? Moreover, will their prices remain competitive, so long as these hardware manufacturers are dishing out wads of cash to Microsoft for Windows-based devices?

It seems the only contenders in this contest are Apple and Google, who are inexpensive.
post #6 of 99
But, but HP has the Slate. Surely that will be "iPad Killer", no?
post #7 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

It's already happening. The junkbook market is already taking casualties. This was predicted months ago.

I agree with you but I just don't understand these manufacturers. Why do these instruments have to be so crappy? Nobody's forcing them to make junk, yet they do.

I still wish Apple would launch a smaller form factor MacBook with a 9" or 10" LCD. I want something that runs OS X and some typical work productivity apps but with a smaller footprint, and a modicum of IO (not wimpy MBA IO). Something that would also do Skype video telecons.

I think they'll sell a lot of the new pads, and it'll be great for my stock. But selfishly, I continue to dream that one day, they'll build a high quality miniature OS X laptop.

Oh well. You can't have everything, where the hell would you put it?
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post #8 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by Psych_guy View Post

But, but HP has the Slate. Surely that will be "iPad Killer", no?

This is an article about netbooks, not upcoming tablets. We have absolutely no idea how well the slate will do.
post #9 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by matt_s View Post

I agree with you but I just don't understand these manufacturers. Why do these instruments have to be so crappy? Nobody's forcing them to make junk, yet they do.

I still wish Apple would launch a smaller form factor MacBook with a 9" or 10" LCD. I want something that runs OS X and some typical work productivity apps but with a smaller footprint, and a modicum of IO (not wimpy MBA IO). Something that would also do Skype video telecons.

I think they'll sell a lot of the new pads, and it'll be great for my stock. But selfishly, I continue to dream that one day, they'll build a high quality miniature OS X laptop.

Oh well. You can't have everything, where the hell would you put it?

Well what's interesting is the fact that the ipad and current netbooks are two different tools capable of doing very different things like twos separate tools, so the ipad having an impact on the netbook market just means the ipad is what a lot of people buying netbooks actually want. One is capable of doing everything a computer does while the other streamlines basic functionality of a computer.

It might mean that a vast majority of people buying netbooks are the same people who will benefit most from an ipad. People who don't want a whole computer, but just a little something-something to get them to basic tasks.

For instance, I'll buy a netbook if I need something very portable that I can work on (load up Visual Studio or Eclipse and get some work done) but my mom would love an ipad to converse through email and IM with her friends, and browse the web. The netbook is definitely better for me than her, and I think the majority of people buying netbooks are people like her.
post #10 of 99
Netbooks are utter junk, I never bought one, and never will, I've been waiting for the day Apple would make a product that rivals these so called netbooks, and that day is here.

Just like when Blackberry's were the thing to have for smartphones, I found them to be extremely awkward and clunky, so I never got a smartphone until Apple made one. History is just repeating itself here folks, netbooks wont vanish, but they'll be relegated to a 2nd class citizen in comparison to Apple's iPad.
post #11 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

Soon anyone who ever tried to bring a product of any kind to anyone will vanish, and Apple will be the only company left.

If God needed a computer, he would use an iPad!

ALL HAIL APPLE!

Wo wo wo... let's take it easy folks. I don't think God will need one, but we've all seen iPads in use on the Starship Enterprise for years now, so it's not a big deal.

The question now is what is the first version of the iPad that will be ordered for the space ships and when? Any NASA insiders?

One thing is certain, the human iPad will be much better than the Klingon Slates.

Time will tell.
post #12 of 99
Nothing unexpected here.

I do hope more vendors realize that going with a desktop OS and chic 16:9 display ratio and a is suboptimal for a 10" device unless you only want it to play videos.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #13 of 99
Quote:
Apple has positioned its device as a counter to both the netbook market and dedicated e-readers like the Amazon Kindle.

Except that's it's not really.

A netbook costs anywhere from $300 and up. A Kindle costs $260 and up. A Windows 7 laptop anywhere from $500 and up.


A iPad costs $500 and up, it also needs another computer. Which adds a additional $500+ to it's cost.

So essentially a $1000 to $1300 iPad isn't in the range of other $260-$1000 devices at all.

If the iPad was standalone, then we are talking some competition, $500 Win7 laptops vs $500 iPads.


From Apple:

Quote:
Mac system requirements

* Mac computer with USB 2.0 port
* Mac OS X v10.5.8 or later
* iTunes 9.0 or later (free download from www.itunes.com/download)
* iTunes Store account
* Internet access

Windows system requirements

* PC with USB 2.0 port
* Windows 7; Windows Vista; or Windows XP Home or Professional with Service Pack 3 or later
* iTunes 9.0 or later (free download from www.itunes.com/download)
* iTunes Store account
* Internet access
post #14 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

.....but it needs another computer.

You keep posting this over and over, as if it is some kind of problem. Who do you think the iPad is being marketed to?
post #15 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

Well what's interesting is the fact that the ipad and current netbooks are two different tools capable of doing very different things like twos separate tools, so the ipad having an impact on the netbook market just means the ipad is what a lot of people buying netbooks actually want. One is capable of doing everything a computer does while the other streamlines basic functionality of a computer.

It might mean that a vast majority of people buying netbooks are the same people who will benefit most from an ipad. People who don't want a whole computer, but just a little something-something to get them to basic tasks.

For instance, I'll buy a netbook if I need something very portable that I can work on (load up Visual Studio or Eclipse and get some work done) but my mom would love an ipad to converse through email and IM with her friends, and browse the web. The netbook is definitely better for me than her, and I think the majority of people buying netbooks are people like her.

This is a good point. The iPad is a new class of device in its own right. If you think about round the home, how this device will do what's required so much better than a net/note book. I reckon kids are going to go nuts over these - I can definitely foresee a situation where everyone in a household has one each.
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Believe nothing, no matter where you heard it, not even if I have said it, if it does not agree with your own reason and your own common sense.
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post #16 of 99
Apple is doomed!
post #17 of 99
Digitimes is as unbiased as Fox News .
post #18 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by Psych_guy View Post

But, but HP has the Slate. Surely that will be "iPad Killer", no?

Does it exist or is it vaporware?

I saw some nice pictures and some lovely descriptions /s.
post #19 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by JupiterOne View Post

You keep posting this over and over, as if it is some kind of problem. Who do you think the iPad is being marketed to?

Affluent technophobes and children.

One gets a free Winnie the Poo book on every iPad.
post #20 of 99
"Growth is slowing" means slowing but still growing. Netbooks are still wildly popular for good reason. They're cheap, lightweight computers that will do nearly anything. I think it's wise HP and Dell are looking hard at their 10" models since 11" makes more sense and allows for a full-size keyboard.

While the iPad is a cool device, I think its "growth will slow" when people realize what a pain it is, having no keyboard and having to hold it constantly at a proper viewing angle. In a few weeks, iPad Wash® will be introduced, to clean the scum off the screen.
post #21 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by JupiterOne View Post

You keep posting this over and over, as if it is some kind of problem. Who do you think the iPad is being marketed to?

His logic is pretty whacked. The iPad is an accessory computing device as is a netbook. I know of no one that has used a netbook and gone "This is perfect, now I can get rid of my Mac/desktop/notebook". There are likely some that have, just as there are some that saw Gigi in the theater and liked it but nearly all would have bought netbook as an accessory or temporary computing device.

He also makes some odd price comparison as if other devices being cheaper mean that they'll be less successful. He probably said the exact same thing about the iPhone yet Apple became the most profitable handset vendor in the world in just two years on the market with their super expensive phone.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #22 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheShepherd View Post

Digitimes is as unbiased as Fox News .

Don't forget MSNBC, the radical flip side to Fox.
post #23 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Affluent technophobes and children.

One gets a free Winnie the Poo book on every iPad.

As I suspected, you have no idea.
post #24 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

The iPad is an accessory computing device as is a netbook.

A netbook doesn't require a Mac or a PC like a iPad does.

It's your logic that's flawed.


Quote:
He also makes some odd price comparison as if other devices being cheaper mean that they'll be less successful.

Again your flawed, I made no such statement or implied that.

I'm making the comparison that the iPad is not in the same competitive price range as those other devices because it requires a computer to operate, thus inflating it's true costs.

Perhaps you need to up your strength level of your reading glasses or take a reading comprehension course.
post #25 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by JupiterOne View Post

As I suspected, you have no idea.

Actually I have the exact idea, Woz, Pogue and even Steve Jobs agrees with me, that's why there is a Winnie the Poo book on every iPad.

It's the media who's putting the spin on things and putting out misinformation cause they think the iPad is going to save their *sses and get people to buy content again.
post #26 of 99
It sounds like someone forgot to take their meds.
post #27 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Don't forget MSNBC, the radical flip side to Fox.

radical flipside? No. More like closest thing to the radical flipside. They aren't NEARLY as bad as Fox News.
post #28 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by JupiterOne View Post

It sounds like someone forgot to take their meds.

What does that mean exactly? Do you have a point?
post #29 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Don't forget MSNBC, the radical flip side to Fox.

Except with smart people instead of bigoted fear mongers.
post #30 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

... If God needed a computer, he would use an iPad!

...

God doesn't need the iPad

He already has the iAm. It records the music he hears, directs the videos he sees, writes the commandments he thinks of, and creates the worlds he wants to play with in his version of The Sims: Creation.

When Jobs and Ive finally get permission to design the iAm for humans life as we know it will stop
post #31 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by GQB View Post

Except with smart people instead of bigoted fear mongers.

Haha, well said. I should point out that Fox per se has some enjoyable shows it's just the so called FoxNews that has the bigoted fear mongers.
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nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
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post #32 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

A netbook doesn't require a Mac or a PC like a iPad does.

It's your logic that's flawed.

Again your flawed, I made no such statement or implied that.

I'm making the comparison that the iPad is not in the same competitive price range as those other devices because it requires a computer to operate, thus inflating it's true costs.

Perhaps you need to up your strength level of your reading glasses or take a reading comprehension course.

Are you 100% certain that you can't operate the iPad without a Computer.

If you start with the iPad and nothing else (no music library you had to copy over, etc.) it does not seem like you have to have a computer.
1) buy your music/movies/tv through the itunes app or from an ABC/CBS/Netflix app all on the iPad.
2) buy your apps from the Appstore App on the iPad.
3) Using your iPad Apps like iWork create/edit/save/store your documents/spreadsheets/presentations on the iPad
4) using the Bento app manage your databasing
5) already does email fine on its own
6) games bought and played on the iPad
7) charges from a plug in the wall
8) in fact i can't think of anything that you have to have a computer for except for that initial syncing of all your old stuff, which is what you would probably do if you bought any new computer.

so are we agreed? you don't have to have a computer for the iPad anymore than you would for a netbook or a new laptop or a new desktop.
post #33 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Except that's it's not really.

A netbook costs anywhere from $300 and up. A Kindle costs $260 and up. A Windows 7 laptop anywhere from $500 and up.


A iPad costs $500 and up, it also needs another computer. Which adds a additional $500+ to it's cost.

So essentially a $1000 to $1300 iPad isn't in the range of other $260-$1000 devices at all.

If the iPad was standalone, then we are talking some competition, $500 Win7 laptops vs $500 iPads.


From Apple:

You can get a Dell Mini10 for 299 at Amazon these days.
post #34 of 99
What I find disturbing with many articles here in Apple Insider is the lack of more thoughtful or analytical crticisms of published materials. The result is "acceptance" of any published text that supports the obvious bias of Apple Insider.

This tendency is so prevalent in many articles.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

In addition, according BusinessWeek, market research firm IDC has revealed new sales data that showed netbook shipments to retailers from January through March 2010 grew 33.6 year-over-year, to 4.8 million units. While that is still an increase, it pales in comparison to the first quarter of 2009, when netbook sales jumped 872 percent to 3.6 million units.

The reality is that even without the iPad, expect the growth of any product, like the netbook, to slow down -- especially after its astronomical growth rate the past year. This is called the decceleration phase in Sigmoidal growth curves. If you do not understand or never heard of this phenomenon, better brush up on your statistics and Economics 101. You may be more aware of "Sigmoidal Growth Curves", if you took and listened to your biology classes (see below).

It is true that the introduction of the iPad may have contributed, but to suggest that news of the iPad is the main cause of the decline in growth rate of the netbooks sales is preposterous. There is no solid evidence provided to prove that "cause and effect" -- a fallacious reasoning.

You will be given an F, and a very scathing remark from your professor, if you present this report in academia.

To illustrate this phenomenon with Apple products, if you have more reliable data on the iPod for example, you may find that the growth rate of the iPod, or specific iPod products would have had a declining growth rate after some time, in spite of the fact that there were no killer iPods that came to market.

In actual settings, the growth curve, after reaching the plateau phase, would eventually exhibit growth rate that may even go down (negative grwoth rate) or oscillate. This happened with the iPod for example -- not because of the competition. It is true also that cannibalization contributed to the negative growth rate of the iPod.

The Sigmoidal growth curve is true also in almost all natural growth phenomena. The ideal "Sigmoidal growth curve" would include the initil slow phase, then an increase growth rate leading to an exponential phase, followed by a decceleration growth phase and then a plateau phase (stable zero growth rate).

In fact, if the growth rate increase too fast in the exponential phase, this could trigger what is called a "catastrophic growth". The latter leads for example to mass death of a population or even the entire ecosystem. This explains the atrophication, for example, following algal bloom in bodies of water; or famine in countries where thr growth rate is very high and there are very scarce food resources.

CGC
post #35 of 99
There are loads of people who want to know what it means to get on the internet without having to deal with the mouse and may already have a TV. The netbooks are great because they are low cost and full-featured. Some of my friends own them and they love them. I found the CPU to be slow but capable - no worse than a powerbook.

They do think that the 11.6" models are the lowest they would go though. 10" is just too small and the majority of netbooks are too small. That's my biggest objection with them too.

The 12" powerbook was an ideal size and netbooks seem to be gravitating towards this screen size. 11.6" HP Mini 311, Lenovo S12, Dell Mini 12.

You can see from the image here how the 9" and 12" compare:



The 9" looks like a kid's toy. Once the 12" variety take up most of the lineup and they use either ULV chips or dual-core Atoms, they may start to pick up again. However, they are also fighting amazingly good value laptops.

You can get an Atom netbook for $299 or a Core i5 with Radeon 5650 for $750. If you are investing in a machine and not just throwing spare cash away, people will opt for the better value machine that will last longer.

The middle ground between the two is perfect. $399 or $499 for 12" display, possibly with a DVD drive (that does put off some movie watchers not having one), Core 2 Duo, decent GPU like the 9400M or higher and light (under 4lbs). Once they get that combination, the netbooks will pick up.

It makes sense that anticipation of the iPad will have slowed down the netbook sales but we'll have to see what happens over the next couple of months whether the delivered product will pull people away from netbooks. Regardless of whether or not an iPad can be used without a secondary machine, it can't be owned without one and when people who want just one machine find that out, I think they will go back to the netbooks.
post #36 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post

The 12" powerbook was an ideal size and netbooks seem to be gravitating towards this screen size. 11.6" HP Mini 311, Lenovo S12, Dell Mini 12.

I agree, but I still swear that a good part of its usefulness at 12" was the 4:3 ratio, which is still taller than the display in the 13.3" MB/MBPs. Videos are great on widescreen but most of the time people seem to be reading.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #37 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I agree, but I still swear that a good part of its usefulness at 12" was the 4:3 ratio, which is still taller than the display in the 13.3" MB/MBPs. Videos are great on widescreen but most of the time people seem to be reading.

Taller in aspect ratio, yes. But 1024 x 768 vs. 1280 x 800. I have a little trouble with the vertical resolution of my 600 pixel netbook but 800 pixels on my MacBook is no problem. My next netbook will be a little bigger.
post #38 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beeman60 View Post

Apple is doomed!

No. It's Apple is doomed!

Just ask Ireland...
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Pity the agnostic dyslectic. They spend all their time contemplating the existence of dog.
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post #39 of 99
The iPad will have no impact on the netbook market
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #40 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Affluent technophobes and children.

If you have critics, then I wonder who your fans are. If any.

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Although I no longer own Apple products like I did before, I'll continue to post my opinions.

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HP Omni 100-5100z, 500GB HDD, 4GB RAM; ASUS Transformer, 16GB, Android 4.0 ICS
Although I no longer own Apple products like I did before, I'll continue to post my opinions.

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