or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Mac Hardware › Current Mac Hardware › Piper increases first-day Apple iPad sales forecast to 650K
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Piper increases first-day Apple iPad sales forecast to 650K

post #1 of 78
Thread Starter 
Following the iPad's first full day of sales, Wall Street analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray increased his prediction to between 600,000 and 700,000 sold in the first 24 hours.

Checks with 20 Apple stores found that 19 of them still had iPads in stock at 7:30 p.m. on Saturday. Munster said that's a positive sign, because it means that Apple was able to meet initial demand for the device.

The analyst also noted that there were longer than expected lines at five Apple stores surveyed, including the iconic 5th Avenue store in New York City, where 730 people were in line at 9 a.m. Compare that to just 350 people in line for the iPhone 3GS, and 540 for the iPhone 3G.

"We estimate Apple sold between 600-700k iPads (including online pre-orders which started on March 12th) on the first day (4/3)," Munster wrote. "It took Apple three days to sell a million iPhone 3GS and iPhone 3G's, and 74 days to sell 1m original iPhones. Keep in mind, the majority of sales come on the first day of availability."

Munster had originally predicted that Apple would only be able to produce between 200,000 and 300,000 iPads for the launch weekend. He believed the company would sell through that inventory almost immediately.

Munster's latest numbers fall in line with a report from early March, in which suppliers claimed there were no production issues for the iPad and they would be able to ship between 600,000 and 700,000 at launch. That same report said Apple would be able to ship another million iPads by the end of April.

When Apple began accepting preorders, it limited the number of purchases to two per person, and also turned down volume orders for businesses. These actions fueled speculation of a tight iPad supply for the product's launch.
post #2 of 78
Looks like we are in line to sell 1 M in first three days also - perhaps even a little more. I do hope Apple announces the milestone.

If the 3G model really is shipped before the end of the month, and Europe also comes on line, then we could hit almost 2 M by May 1.

Great opening!
post #3 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmmx View Post

Looks like we are in line to sell 1 M in first three days also - perhaps even a little more. I do hope Apple announces the milestone.

If the 3G model really is shipped before the end of the month, and Europe also comes on line, then we could hit almost 2 M by May 1.

Great opening!

Dang, I'm not selling a single unit as I don't own Apple's shares. ;( You own Apple? Good for you...
post #4 of 78
apple will sell 2,25 million by monday night 9 pm

apple will selll 11 million or more this yr

school systems are placing 3ok orders right now
whats in a name ? 
beatles
Reply
whats in a name ? 
beatles
Reply
post #5 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmmx View Post

Looks like we are in line to sell 1 M in first three days also - perhaps even a little more. I do hope Apple announces the milestone.

"we" ?
post #6 of 78
Just left this comment with iPad. I'm telling you, websites draw faster than my MacBook. The only thing I need to get used to is not resting fingers on keyboard when typing.
post #7 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevetim View Post

Just left this comment with iPad. I'm telling you, websites draw faster than my MacBook. The only thing I need to get used to is not resting fingers on keyboard when typing.

Dito that. I am also commenting from an iPad right now and it is remarkably easy to type on.

I speculated the day the current keyboards came out that apple only made them as a stepping stone to begin conditioning people for typing on a flat surface, like glass, and my friends called me crazy.

You friends, who called me crazy, can now suck it.

post #8 of 78
So, have they officially announced that they are now taking "bulk orders?" It would be good news for sales if this were to happen immediately.
Of course, I am quite curious as to who is seriously interested in bulk orders and how bulky they are!

It appears we are off to a great start!
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
Reply
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
Reply
post #9 of 78
Meanwhile the initial sales figures for the JooJoo tablet have been upgraded from 90 to 117 units sold (minus 28 returns). This sets FusionGarage on track to sell over 500 units in the first year!

Developers are rushing to create new apps for the JooJoo platform, although one has been delayed while waiting for more RAM for his 486/66. The other developer, though, is looking for an early beta release sometime in Q3 '10.
post #10 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

The analyst also noted that there were longer than expected lines at five Apple stores surveyed, including the iconic 5th Avenue store in New York City, where 730 people were in line at 9 a.m. Compare that to just 350 people in line for the iPhone 3GS, and 540 for the iPhone 3G.

What I find doubly interesting about the these line numbers is the iPad requires no activation so lines would move faster and pre-order allowed units to be shipped to your home which would also reduce the iPad line.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #11 of 78
why do these forums always fall for apple's supply constraint rumors? they're obviously put out by apple to spur lines and push forward demand. none of their major launches ever have supply constraints. you'd think by now people would catch on to the ruse..
post #12 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dlux View Post

Meanwhile the initial sales figures for the JooJoo tablet have been upgraded from 90 to 117 units sold (minus 28 returns). This sets FusionGarage on track to sell over 500 units in the first year!

Developers are rushing to create new apps for the JooJoo platform, although one has been delayed while waiting for more RAM for his 486/66. The other developer, though, is looking for an early beta release sometime in Q3 '10.

Okay, okay. That's like picking on the 'developmentally impaired'.
post #13 of 78
http://www.fierceonlinevideo.com/sto...pad/2010-03-31

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-10471690-17.html

A few links to a couple of schools that will give every member of the student body and faculty an ipad...
post #14 of 78
Just saw my first iPad in the wild at a coffee shop across the street.
post #15 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCNoble View Post

why do these forums always fall for apple's supply constraint rumors? they're obviously put out by apple to spur lines and push forward demand. none of their major launches ever have supply constraints. you'd think by now people would catch on to the ruse..

AFAIK Apple did not comment on supply issues, one way or another. It was all of the rumor sites and the "financial experts" that were doing all of the commenting. Apple put out nothing .... big difference from what you are claiming. Think first. \
Apple is not Appl ...... Please learn the difference!    
Reply
Apple is not Appl ...... Please learn the difference!    
Reply
post #16 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCNoble View Post

why do these forums always fall for apple's supply constraint rumors? they're obviously put out by apple to spur lines and push forward demand. none of their major launches ever have supply constraints. you'd think by now people would catch on to the ruse..

ReallY? Piper Jaffray has lied about contacted stores and measuring line densities because they are employed by Apple? Do you have anything to back up such a claim?
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #17 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dlux View Post

Meanwhile the initial sales figures for the JooJoo tablet have been upgraded from 90 to 117 units sold (minus 28 returns). This sets FusionGarage on track to sell over 500 units in the first year!

Developers are rushing to create new apps for the JooJoo platform, although one has been delayed while waiting for more RAM for his 486/66. The other developer, though, is looking for an early beta release sometime in Q3 '10.

Never heard of JooJoo, but they are going to have a tough time competing. $500 gets you a 2.4lb tablet with 4 GB of storage, and 5 hours of battery life.
post #18 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCNoble View Post

why do these forums always fall for apple's supply constraint rumors? they're obviously put out by apple to spur lines and push forward demand. none of their major launches ever have supply constraints. you'd think by now people would catch on to the ruse..

Why do forums give any time to "Analysts" sales numbers. Its a crap-shoot until Apple actually divulges the numbers.
post #19 of 78
I still think the number is too good to be true.
post #20 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dorotea View Post

Why do forums give any time to "Analysts" sales numbers. Its a crap-shoot until Apple actually divulges the numbers.

Sure, to large extent they are educated guesses -- but they are writing these evaluations for their clients, not us. It all feeds into their target price for the stock.
Please don't be insane.
Reply
Please don't be insane.
Reply
post #21 of 78
Apple is (undeniably) doomed!
post #22 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Apple is (undeniably) doomed!

double dare doomed!
:-D * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Reply
:-D * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Reply
post #23 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

What I find doubly interesting about the these line numbers is the iPad requires no activation so lines would move faster and pre-order allowed units to be shipped to your home which would also reduce the iPad line.

And, not including the ton of us that ordered the 3G version, eagerly awaiting the end of April...... it is going to be looooooooooooooong April! \
post #24 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cubert View Post

Just saw my first iPad in the wild at a coffee shop across the street.

I saw a guy using one yesterday as I was walking home from the Apple store. He was sitting at an outdoor cafe table, and there were about 10 people crowded around him watching.
post #25 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCNoble View Post

why do these forums always fall for apple's supply constraint rumors?

Because it's fun to do so?
post #26 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dorotea View Post

Why do forums give any time to "Analysts" sales numbers. Its a crap-shoot until Apple actually divulges the numbers.

Because it resonates?

As of a couple of minutes ago, the news about Munster's estimate is one of three news stories on the 'Top Stories' section of news.google.com.
post #27 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by isaidso View Post

I saw a guy using one yesterday as I was walking home from the Apple store. He was sitting at an outdoor cafe table, and there were about 10 people crowded around him watching.

Oh man, I hope that this does not turn into a paparazzi thing. I am waiting on my 3G iPad to be delivered to my home at the end of the month and then off on vacation....

post #28 of 78
imagine how many more they would sell if the apple store was open today! not saying they should be open today but it brigs me the question of why release it on saturday before easter knowing they are closing the next day. That obviously affects the numbers for sales for "opening weekend". I can't wait to get my 3g !
post #29 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by ijoe View Post

imagine how many more they would sell if the apple store was open today! not saying they should be open today but it brigs me the question of why release it on saturday before easter knowing they are closing the next day. That obviously affects the numbers for sales for "opening weekend". I can't wait to get my 3g !

Apple stores are open today.
post #30 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lochias View Post

Apple stores are open today.

where are you at? Im in colorado and went to 2 of them and they were closed
post #31 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Following the iPad's first full day of sales, Wall Street analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray increased his prediction to between 600,000 and 700,000 sold in the first 24 hours.

LESS than 700,000? iPad is obviously a HUGE failure and will never be more than a blip in the screen. Apple is truly doomed.
post #32 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by rtamesis View Post

LESS than 700,000? iPad is obviously a HUGE failure and will never be more than a blip in the screen. Apple is truly doomed.

I've gone full circle... I've gone from "wow, I absolutely want one" after the keynote to "no way." I am now somewhere in the middle. I don't need one, but can't wait to see one.

I'll hold off for the next version for now, but again, can't wait to see one.
post #33 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCNoble View Post

why do these forums always fall for apple's supply constraint rumors? they're obviously put out by apple to spur lines and push forward demand. none of their major launches ever have supply constraints. you'd think by now people would catch on to the ruse..

i think the supply constraint rumours are put out by 'analysts' to manipulate the stock. apple has always been notoriously quiet. nature abhors a vacuum - so it gets filled with rumours. and until apple speaks, that's all they ever are - rumours.

do we 'fall' for them? i don't think so. at least not if you've been around here for a while. the trolls will always accuse apple of hype, when in fact the hype gets produced by the lack of leaks from apple. i personally think that i'd rather hear from them when they have something to say, rather than floating vapourware to see what sticks, or to preempt a competitor's product launch.
post #34 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

So, have they officially announced that they are now taking "bulk orders?" It would be good news for sales if this were to happen immediately.
Of course, I am quite curious as to who is seriously interested in bulk orders and how bulky they are!

It appears we are off to a great start!

Educational institutions: Get your discounted iPad 10-pack

http://www.tuaw.com/2010/03/20/educa...-ipad-10-pack/
post #35 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by rtamesis View Post

LESS than 700,000? iPad is obviously a HUGE failure and will never be more than a blip in the screen. Apple is truly doomed.

Yes. 650.000 in a day is nothing more than a rounding error, in fact
On a more serious note: I wonder how many units the most popular tablet PC's have sold in the years leading up to the iPads release? It would be interesting to compare those numbers after the iPad has been made avaiable in both WiFi + 3G versions internationally.

Would it be too outlandish to predict that Apple will probably sell more iPads in one year, than all tablets before it have sold in total?
post #36 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dorotea View Post

Why do forums give any time to "Analysts" sales numbers. Its a crap-shoot until Apple actually divulges the numbers.

Why do people come to a rumor site and expect factual reporting about rumors?
Hard-Core.
Reply
Hard-Core.
Reply
post #37 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by ijoe View Post

where are you at? Im in colorado and went to 2 of them and they were closed

Depends on your state.
post #38 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by mitchell_pgh View Post

I've gone full circle... I've gone from "wow, I absolutely want one" after the keynote to "no way." I am now somewhere in the middle. I don't need one, but can't wait to see one.

I'll hold off for the next version for now, but again, can't wait to see one.

I'm waiting for the next iPhone and Mac Pro. When a year goes by I'll check out the next iPad.
post #39 of 78
I was also wondering about what percentage of the tablet market Apple has captured in one day.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garion View Post

Yes. 650.000 in a day is nothing more than a rounding error, in fact
On a more serious note: I wonder how many units the most popular tablet PC's have sold in the years leading up to the iPads release? It would be interesting to compare those numbers after the iPad has been made avaiable in both WiFi + 3G versions internationally.

Would it be too outlandish to predict that Apple will probably sell more iPads in one year, than all tablets before it have sold in total?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rtamesis View Post

LESS than 700,000? iPad is obviously a HUGE failure and will never be more than a blip in the screen. Apple is truly doomed.
A problem occurred with this webpage so it was reloaded.A problem occurred with this webpage so it was reloaded.A problem occurred with this webpage so it was reloaded.A problem occurred with this...
Reply
A problem occurred with this webpage so it was reloaded.A problem occurred with this webpage so it was reloaded.A problem occurred with this webpage so it was reloaded.A problem occurred with this...
Reply
post #40 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbee View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by DCNoble View Post

why do these forums always fall for apple's supply constraint rumors? they're obviously put out by apple to spur lines and push forward demand. none of their major launches ever have supply constraints. you'd think by now people would catch on to the ruse..

AFAIK Apple did not comment on supply issues, one way or another. It was all of the rumor sites and the "financial experts" that were doing all of the commenting. Apple put out nothing .... big difference from what you are claiming. Think first. \

Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

ReallY? Piper Jaffray has lied about contacted stores and measuring line densities because they are employed by Apple? Do you have anything to back up such a claim?

newbee already trumped the allegations of DCNoble quite well, and I agree with newbee's point.

However, having read a number of Gene Munster's projections, the basis of his predictions or projections would not pass muster what would be considered to be valid statistical sampling. For example, if his readjusted projection was based mainly on this statement:

Quote:
.. Checks with 20 Apple stores found that 19 of them still had iPads in stock at 7:30 p.m. on Saturday. Munster said ...

and the stores themselves were not randomly sampled throughout the US, it would not meet the criteria of valid statistical sampling.


As a result, as far as a I recall from reports comparing analysts projections [I do not have the data in front of me], quite a number of his Gene Munster's projections about Apple products and earnings, or the products and prices Apple would introduce, are not always correct and often, not even close.

I am sure a number of others here could cite more predictions and projections of Munster that did not pan out.

In fact, he usually has to re-assess his prior projections; and still he usually is off or at best just close.

Munster was infamous for predicting in June 2007 (?) that Apple would sell 45 million iPhone units (annually) by 2009 ***

He maintained the aforementioned projection even after the economic and market collapse that started in the summer of 2008. If you review the basis of Munster's projections, the assumptions turned out to be faulty or too exuberant. He also tends to base them from unreliable sources.

Nonetheless, Munster is the "darling" among Apple proponents because he tends to provide predictions and projections that are very positive for Apple product. This seems to be a blindspot among us who not only like but love what Apple creates for us -- we tend to accept rumors or, "predictions and projections" even if their bases are at best flimsy or unreliable, and accept them as "facts" to be the starting point of our own projections and speculations.

In fairness, many business analysts, as well as business and technoloigy analyses of newspapers and their own analysts (including prestigious papers like NY Times) tend to have a premise or "perspective" already, and then they try to find what they consider as facts to corroborate their premise or "perspective".

To illustrate the aforementioned on a day-to-day basis, read the headline of the stock market (in the US) in the morning and at the end of the day -- you may find that the same "facts" may be used to justify the direction of the market at the start of the day, and may be reinterpreted (or new information) introduced, if the direction of the market are contradictory when it opens and closes during the day.

My own bias right now is that many business analysts, have the same tendency to provide the alleged "facts" to justify their predictions and projections.


CGC

***
http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune....hones-in-2009/
http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=8336
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: Current Mac Hardware
AppleInsider › Forums › Mac Hardware › Current Mac Hardware › Piper increases first-day Apple iPad sales forecast to 650K